Ten conclusions from the Cheltenham Spring Forum

(1) The media have decided that the Conservatives have won the next election.  There has long been an expectation of Tory victory but it's become a near certainty because of recent events (particularly the Budget and misuse of expenses).  One BBC journalist told me that his colleagues and editors were now more interested in an announcement from George Osborne than from Alistair Darling.  Yesterday's announcement on primary school academies from Michael Gove led bulletins throughout the day.  Tory policy matters because the media class has decided that it will be Government policy in a year's time.

(2) The Tories have decided that Labour has reached the contempt phase.  William Hague predicted in 1997 that New Labour would first produce fascination among voters, then disillusionment, and then contempt.  It's taken longer than he perhaps hoped but yesterday the Shadow Foreign Secretary launched a no holds barred attack on the "decomposing political muckheap" that is Labour's frontbench.  He described Labour as the "disgustingly grubbiest" of all administrations of the modern era.  Strong stuff and it wouldn't have been issued if CCHQ wasn't confident that the public is now contemptuous of Brown.  William Hague is pictured with our Cheltenham PPC, Mark Coote.

(3) David Cameron is oozing confidence.  The Tory leader is a confident man who has a realistic expectation that he will be Prime Minister in a year's time.  It was obvious from his powerfully delivered speech and also obvious from two brief chats I had with him earlier today.  He is fully aware that with the expectation of a Tory victory he, his team and his manifesto are about to face unprecendented scrutiny.  A media class that gave Tony Blair an easy ride will not give an easy ride to the Conservatives.  David Cameron is pictured with the Liberal Democrat PPC who defected yesterday.

(4) The media are attempting to set up a Boris V Cameron split.  Saturday's Times suggested that Boris "despises" Cameron.  Interviewed by ConHome yesterday the Mayor of London dismissed the story as "tripe" and "fantastic".  He also said that it was "almost certain" that being Mayor would be his last big job in politics but not one journalist in Cheltenham believes that Boris has given up his ambition to follow David Cameron into Downing Street.  The Boris story is going to run and run.

(5) David Cameron and George Osborne say they want a mandate for specific spending cuts.  David Cameron said that ministers will be promoted according to their success at using new technology and decentralisation to deliver more on smaller budgets.  And, nearer the time of the election, they will spell out the specific nature of planned spending cuts.

ConservativeHome Comment: It is still far from clear to me whether those cuts will be just enough to move Britain away from the cliff (and the next Conservative government will be about managing relative decline) or whether they'll be big enough to start to restore Britain's 1997 status as the enterprise capital of Europe.

(6) The next Conservative government will probably raise taxes.  That has to be the conclusion from David Cameron's address to Spring Forum.  He said (my emphasis): "Fifteen years ago, I was in the Treasury as we had to deal with public finances that had got out of control; debt that had got too high. We had to put up taxes, and I hated it. But it was the right thing to do and that lesson has stayed with me." 

(7) Philip Hammond is a rising star.  His steady rise in the ConHome league table captures the increasingly high regard that grassroots members have for the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  A safe, intelligent and hardworking frontbencher, George Osborne said that Mr Hammond would be "one of the most powerful members of the government."

(8) Spring Forum needs to be better organised.  The Saturday agenda was very thin - rescued by strong speeches from Boris Johnson to all representatives and from William Hague to candidates.  Two half hour sessions from Andrew Lansley and Michael Gove were closed to the media (except to ConHome!!) and put in such a small room that many conference attendees couldn't even get in.  The party needs to decide whether it wants a two day conference or a one day rally (although it must always be addressed by Dan Hannan).  Spring Forum fell between the two possibilities this weekend.

(9) Jeremy Middleton will be a great representative of the grassroots.  I backed him and am therefore biased but the grassroots have a new Chairman of the National Convention who believes in members' democratic rights and is a believer in the internet's transformational power.  Commiserations to the other candidates for the job and the party owes the now retired Don Porter enormous thanks for all his years of service to the Conservative Party.

(10) The new generation of Conservative candidates is impressive.  I hesitate to name too many names but the more I see our candidates the more I'm hopeful about the next Conservative government.  Andrea Leadsom, Harriett Baldwin, Charlie Elphicke and so many others I caught up with in Cheltenham are going to make us proud.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[The Freedom Association]

As an eleventh conclusion, I would add that Daniel Hannan's clear exposition of the flaws of the European Union - from the platform of a Conservative Party 'conference' no less - should give the Conservative Party cause to reconsider its absurd and unsustainable refusal to allow signatories to the BETTER OFF OUT campaign to serve on the front bench.

[Andrew Woodman]

I only went for the Sunday and I'd agree with point 8. Nothing of interest seemed to happen until 1.30. A one day rally would probably be better and one feels it's only 2 day for conference hire reasons so Cheltenham can get delegate money of a Saturday night.

Personal highlight has to be asking Alan Duncan if he'd shot anyone yet today?

[Rose]

The narrative is now with us, our ability to turn those few thousand votes on the ground in each and every constituency is what will make or break us. David and the team deserve our enourmous thanks for getting us here - its now up to us to take the party over the line.

Every member must answer: when was the last time you delivered/canvassed/wrote envelopes etc. If it was more than 3weeks you should be ashamed.

Rose

[Apostate Guardianista]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN.

[Chad Noble (ex ToryBlog.com)]

I second Simon's comments.

Time to drop the BOO ban. The country needs Dan in a front bench role.

[UKIP Campaigner]

What change? More statism like Obama?

[Tom FD]

"One BBC journalist told me that his colleagues and editors were now more interested in an announcement from George Osborne than from Alistair Darling."

I'd have thought this generally true anyway; at least listening to a George Osborne speech you don't run the risk of not only falling to sleep during it but also having nightmares from it...

[UKIP Campaigner]

Why does the slogan in the podium say routemap rather than roadmap? Very French!

[all lower case]

great summary.
this is what ch is best at.

[Dylan Jones-Evans]

Unfortunately for many in this country, this was a budget that was always going to be in denial of the real problems facing businesses within the economy.

It did little to ensure that the banks will release more money to the small firm sector, or to support key sectors such as manufacturing and retailing. Worst of all, it did little to cut taxes on businesses through either a reduction in corporation tax or a freezing of business rate.

Encouraging real investment and taking less money from millions of businesses struggling in the UK could have made a real difference to kick starting the economy and showed the Government believed in a partnership with the business community to drag this country back into economic growth.

Certainly, cutting taxes to businesses would have resulted in far more jobs than giving £1.5 billion to the Department of Work and Pensions.

Yet again, the Government has conveniently forgotten it is businesses that create wealth while civil servants spend it.

By focusing on populist policies more to do with electioneering than saving the economy, this budget will do nothing to alleviate the financial pain felt by millions of people and go down in history as a lost opportunity for a Government that has lost its way.

[Felix Bungay]

I have to agree with Simon's comments. When will we as Conservatives realise we are better off out?

[The Freedom Association]

I should have added that I think Tim's ten conclusions are most perceptive - even though I'm being greedy and proposing an eleventh!

[FredrikI]

Remember, the Tories MUST AVOID overconfidence and complacency.

Remember, Neil Kinnock and the Sheffield Rally in 1992.

Forget these lessons at your own risk !

[Tim Montgomerie]

@Simon Richards

Thank you friend. Dan does get a big mention in conclusion 8 for his terrific speech.

:-)

[Sally Roberts]

I, like many others, enjoyed Dan Hannan's rousing oratory this afternoon and his amusing story about Churchill (complete with marvellous vocal impression of the Great Man!) However, rather than saying
"What does it matter, he asked, if you elect a person with a yellow, blue or red rosette if four out of five laws are decided by Brussels?’"
I rather wish that Dan had said "Work as hard as you can to ensure that as many people as possible vote Conservative on 4th June in order to send a strong team of Conservative MEPs to Brussels and Strasbourg in order to fight for our interests in the European Parliament! His statement "What's the purpose of voting?" only reminded me of the famous Anarchist slogan "Don't vote - It only encourages them"!

[Simon]

The French have told us in no uncertain terms that the invaders in Calis are encouraged by the welfare state to reach our shores by whatever means necessary. AND THEY ARE RIGHT.

Just when in David Cameron going to grow the balls to tackle this most urgent of issues ? The colonisation of our country has carried on unchecked for far too long now. In fact I'm certain the damage is almost irreversable.

100's of schools where no one speaks English, huge parts of our cities where ethnic Britons are an ethnic minority. An Islamic population who are outbreeding ethnic Britons at a rate of 7.5 to 1.

Huge amounts of crime carried out by non ethnic persons that is vastly out of proportion to their numbers. The fact is that this country is sliding away from us day by day as the awful Nu Labour experiment of mass immigration and cultural enrichment gathers pace, unchecked and un regulated.

We NEVER gave permission for the colonisation of Britain and the ethnic genocide of our natural population. If Cameron can't sort this out then nothing else matters because as a nation of Britishers we shall cease to exist.

[DCMX]

The ConservativeHome Comment says it all. Is Cameron going to rescue Britain or manage decline? I suppose we won't know until he's in Downing Street.

[Working Class Tory]

You know what? The Tories have a chance to win votes. Millions of votes. Appear as Eurosceptic as possible. That way you will absorb the UKIP vote, and all Tories, UKIP voters and conservatives who will be voting BNP in June.

I think this because those who are pro-EU put up very little argument for it. The only strong and stirring arguments are anti-EU, and rightly so.

long live Dan Hannan.

[Simon]

Working Class Tory says

the Conservatives should 'appear' to be Euro sceptic in order to steal votes from UKIP and the BNP.

And therein lies the falsehoods and treachery of British politicans....

If the Tories are NOT against the EU and all the corrupt and wasteful baggage in brings with it, then why pretend ?

This post exposes the truth about the Nu Tories. They are Nu Labour in a blue frock. This once great nation is truely done for.

[pp]

Point 5 is back to front.

No mandate should be sought for spending cuts; instead, from a blank sheet, a mandate should be sought for each specific area of spending.

[TrevorH]

Everyone is in decline - the more Obama mismanages the more the US will decline.

Europe will be hit with more bank bad debts before long.

We are in deep shit. Get real. There is non magic wand to get us out of it.

[Peter]

I agree with Simon. How about we make Hannan mainstream, promise a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which if rejected by the public we follow with a referendum on EU membership, in or out.

[Steve Tierney]

@Peter and Simon:

Im not sure the decision to "make Hannan mainstream" is one anybody can make

Dan Hannan is probably the most powerful orator we have and he will become mainstream either way, no matter what anybody decides.

I doubt there is any stopping him. Which is a good thing, in my opinion.

[Working Class Tory]

@ simon who responded to me: I'm not saying we simply change "appearance" - I fully believe that the Cameroonians are the only ones going for Europe, because they're more liberal than your average tory MP and certainly member and usually voter. The vast majority trust Europe as far as they could throw it - show our true colours, that's my request. And if you're calling me "nu-Tory" you can unceremoniously consider yourself entirely incorrect: I'm old school and happier for it.

[Simon]

The Tories must promise this

1. Referendum on our membership of the EU

2. Immediately withdraw from the European Convention of Human Rights, no if's no buts.

3. Deport immediately ALL foreign prisoners without recourse to our courts.

4. Introduce an immigration policy that prohibits ANYONE from access to the Social Security System for five years. Stop IMMEDIATELY, any further immigration from the Third World.

5. Inter in camps anyone crossing illegally from France until such time as their nationality is forthcoming and then deport them immediately. If they want to claim asylum then they should do it in the first country they arrive at.

6. Purge all educational establishments of political correctness and bring in laws that make the teaching of British history compulsary, without the current marxist twisting.

7. Withdraw ALL British passports handed out by Nu Labour to migrants from Third World countries and establish just why this was done. If no good reason stands out then they need to be deported.

8. Prohibit any further immigration into Great Britain from Islamic countries and where necessary, encourage those who do not wish to intergrate to return to their natural homelands.

9. Halt immediately ALL foreign aid. It's time we put ourselves first.

Of course none of this will happen. So in less than 25 years time we can kiss this once great nation goodbye forever because it will cease to exist as we know it. You read it here first.

[snegchui]

Boris and Cameron rivalry: Yes it will run. Is it based in truth like Blair and Brown, I don't think so. Brothers fight but they reconcile, seekers after power fight to the death.
Hannan: Scrubbed up well and has the potential to be more than a one-trick pony. His speech to the Freedom Association more telling for me and those who wish to see him as crude BOO should think again. He is a good orator with good delivery. Asset or liability, we wait and see.

[Simon]

Working Class Tory...

Sorry mate. By the way, I vote British National Party so you may not wish to talk to me again. I used to support the Tories but quite frankly I've run out of patience and unless someone gets a grip on immigration, not only stops it but reverses the damage, then this country is history.

[Gary]

It's looking good.

[Anne-Marie]

Simon, if you vote BNP you do realise that you are voting for one of the most left wing parties in Britain at the moment?

Their economic policy might as well have been written by a lunatic trade unionist!

I only point this out as you (and many others) seem to thing that voting for the BNP is a progression from voting Conservative, when actually the ideals on freedom and the promotion of globablised capitalism couldn't be much further apart.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Shame this thread has turned into yet another about the EU.
I wasn't able to go to the Spring forum this year so have had to view it through the eyes of the media.
It certainly attracted quite a bit of publicity. The main theme for me is that Cameron is seeking permission from the electorate to introduce severe spending cuts. It seems a novel idea to me, quite high risk (what happens if that permission is not granted) but if successful could deliver huge dividends.
I do agree with Tim though, we will be increasingly under the scrutiny of the media and George is going to have to give much more detail of his spending plans whether he wants to or not. Like others I hope he has a plan.
As far as I can see Dan Hannan's speech (which I'm sure would have been good) did not receive any coverage at all.

[Rose]

Mr Hannan is very much an interal hero - nothing wrong with that but lets be realistic thats all he is.

Let the EU-Obessives hero worship Hannan while the rest of us get on with winning the GE!

[Edward Huxley]

Mr.Cameron promises us austerity if he becomes Prime Minister but he made no mention of scrapping the Climate Change Bill, which seeks to bind future governments and has the impossible aim of reducing carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2010, or the huge amounts we have to pay to the profligate and corrupt EU. These should be at the top of his list. Is he afraid of offending our European "partners"?

[Peter Buss]

Thanks very much Tim for that extremely helpful summary of the Spring Conference.

Whilst I didn't think David Cameon was at his vey best yesterday (the deft light touches which so often characterise his speeches, I felt were often missing), the substance of his remarks were top rate. What a geat Leader he is proving to be. One of the marks of a genuine Leader is how they grow under the pressure of the unexpected and changing challenges that are flung acoss their way. Each time Cameron has risen to those challenges.Incidentally, was Samantha Cameron there - she was not shown as being in the Hall on TV. Just hope she is OK.

Sky,(Jon Craig) though giving Cameron good marks for his speech, rated Osbourne's as better. Any chance of that being made available on this Site Tim as well in the way the Hannan speech has ?

Sally Robets and Rose have summarised perfectly my own thoughts on Hannan.

[Ross Warren]

"What a geat Leader he is proving to be."

I'll second that, although I am not a natural Cameroon, he certainly deserves and can expect our 100% support.

[Jack Stone]

Daniel Hannan I suspect will rightly never sit on the front bench of the Conservative Party. His extreme views on the NHS make him the biggest vote loser the Tory Party have.

[A long time Tory]

I was too busy at the weekend to go, official council duties (plus below) called, so downloable clips of the highlights would be great.

Rose @ 20:50, in answer to the question you posed, Saturday morning canvassing, Sunday evening leafleting, which is usual in my ward and not just restricted to six weeks before an election.

[A hopelss Idealist]

"Everyone is in decline - the more Obama mismanages the more the US will decline."

The US is even more of a basket case than we are. The only thing they still have going is a reserve currency. China is increasingly going to dominate the world. Unless we are willing to truly bite the bullet and get our house in order we will shortly have to accept the fact that we are no longer a major player and can expect a future as a dependency of Germany at best. £20,000 per man woman and child is peanuts in comparison with the £100,000 debt of the Americans. Of course £40pw for a decade is a lot of money to find on top of day to day bills but its is still an achievable amount. America has gotten itself into its current mess because it cannot convince its population that tax's must be paid. At one time the Governemet would have told the population the real problem and encourage them to find imaginative ways to pay off the debt. Shouldn't we set up a "save Britain fund" and ask our people to pay what they can afford into a fund that will be set aside only for payment of the national debt. If everyone was mobilized to raise funds in a voluntary way, I bet we could raise a lot over a relatively short time. I see no reason why such a scheme could not be done. The Nation should be encouraged to work together to rid ourselves in short order of the debt mountain. The more we give volutarly the less we would need to take in tax's. Such a fund would of course also help to pull the nation together. It would need to be administered by a trust. I think it would help, what do you think?

[Peter Buss]

I realise many will not want to hear this, but Jack stone i quite right. Hannans views on the NHS are extreme. Not just on that issue either - read him on the bank bail out - or even listen to his views as expounded to Fox News. I view Jack's comments as a friendly warning from acoss the other side of the political divide. Please do not hug Hannan so closely - we will live to regret it .Without doubt if we do, then there will come a time during the election campaign when David Cameron will have to disown Hannans views.

[Julian Melford]

Sally Roberts - even if we got half of the MEPs in every region, they would be up against organised Socialist and Christian Democrat-EPP (centrist federalist) blocs. We'd have a tiny voting weight, made tinier by those Conservative MEPs whose allegiance is to the EPP and European integration.

The European Parliament can also be bypassed by either the European Council or European Court of Justice in passing laws.

David Cameron was right to expose Labour's dishonest budget. Read the small print of the budget document and you'll realise that it has to be consistent with EU obligations and rubber stamped by the European Commission.

Daniel Hannan was right to highlight the bigger picture; the EU controls so much of our lives that as incoming PM, David Cameron would be little more than a bag-carrier for the EU. We want a Prime Minister who is accountable to us, not Brussels.

[John Prendergast]

I am a BOO man. Thde EU has ruined our links with the third world and the Commonwealth and screwed our manufacturers as effectively as the unions have done.
Re Tax, yes we may have to pay more but preferably not until every spending plan is scrapped and redrwn on a case of absolute need. DC should also scrap benefits for those 1.4million men who fake limps and illnesses to get their free weekly cash handouts.

[David Parker]

Generally a very positive and encouraging meeting, but I am seriously worried by Cameron's so called Green Energy policy.
If,as is now almost unavoidable, we do suffer serious energy shortages, this will be every bit as damaging to the government in power at the time as has been the present financial crisis, quite apart from crippling the economy and causing a number of deaths.
We need to reconstruct our own national energy industry just as urgently as we needed to re-arm this country in 1939.

A low carbon energy policy is an admirable long term objective, particularly when advances in technology may have made this more efficient and economically viable. In the short term, however, we must build several new conventional coal fired power stations, since these can be brought onstream faster than nuclear ones, whilst at the same time commencing the immediate construction of a new generation of nuclear plants. Rather than wasting money on hopelessly uneconomical and inefficient white elephant wind factories (both on and offshore) the money devoted to these should be diverted into researching better forms of renewable energy.

Whilst, in the short term, this might be unpopular with the green lobby, this is nothing to the universal unpopularity which would result from massive power cuts. In the long term such a policy would also be more environmentally friendly, in that properly researched and developed alternative energy sources, quite apart from being more efficient and cost effec- tive, would be infinitely preferable to a landscape littered with derelict windmills erected in a panic response to a politically engineered spurious global warming scare.

Such a policy would bring a new Conservative government into conflict swith the EU emissions directives, however, it is very unlikely that they would be alone in this respect. There are already signs that several other member states, Germany amongst them, have realised that EU targets are both practically and economically unachievable, despite the fact that our brave Tory MEPs in Brussels voted enthusiastically in favour of them.

[George Earle]

I agree with the first post here at 2032 yesterday from Simon Richards. So long as membership by Tory MPs of the BOO Campaign is effectively forbidden by Mr. Cameron, the CP's public euroscepticism is meaningless and hypocritical. It should be perfectly reasonable for MPs in a democratic Party to express their views on EU membership by freely joining a patriotic group such as BOO. The present restriction looks paranoid and confirms this Party in the way it is viewed by many i.e. 'Party before Country, Power before principle'. BOO should not be TABOO.

[B.Garvie]

Many MPs and MEPs are valuable assets to the Party and articulate well. Unfortunately, it is a pity that all their hard work could be undone by a pathetic TV appearance on BBC 'Have I got News for You' (25/04/09)by that Alan Duncan. He was well out of order and his performance was like a train wreck. That man should be kept off TV because he lets the side down. He has definitely become a liability.

[Edward Huxley]

Correction to my previous posting. The Climate Change Bill seeks to reduce our cabon emissions by 80 percent by 2050, not 2010. Still impossible to achieve however.

This bill was given overwhelming support by the Tories and Libdems - about 600 voted for and I think only 3 against. We have a looming power crisis, but they don`t seem to know or care. Are our MPs bonkers or is it just me?

[Steve Tierney]

@Jack Stone
Try as you might, we aren't going to let you drag us into a debate on the NHS. Give it a rest. There'll be a time and a place for that, and it needs to be done right. Not dragged out with a red rag by an opponent with an agenda.

@B. Garvie
Alan Duncan was a bit embarrassing but it wasn't the end of the world and it doesn't make him a 'liability'. It paled in comparison to Eric Pickles on Question Time and he's been forgiven.

[john parkes]

It seems as if Cheltenham was a success but I do hope we will never forget that it is unwise to take anything for granted in politics; the electorate in particular. If the media are trying to suggest the result of the next election is a foregone conc;usion, look out! The voters are not at all sympathetic to an approach of this sort.
David Parker @ 12.43 writes good sense, as ever, concerning `Green` legislation. Anything we can do will pale into insignificance beside the activities of the new super-powers (China and India) so to hamstring our own industry will really get us nowhere. I quite understand those who say a start must be made somewhere; I just wouldn`t start from here!
Cameron and Osborne are both growing in stature in this present crisis and both of them are holding their nerve under the pressure of the `what-are-your-policies-now` inquisitors. It might just be that the electorate will have the courage to vote for a Conservative austerity regime...but don`t bank on it yet.

[Simon]

Hi Anne Marie,

Thanks for your post and I take on board what you say.

My problem is this, the Tories have just held their Spring Conference and it appears to me that the whole agenda was dominated by such trivia hugging trees et al and to be honest, those are not my personal priorities.

Mine are the colonisation of our Islands and the Third Reich, sorry, EU. Until such time as the Tories deal with those issues in a radical and I mean radical way, then there is no chance of me coming back.

At current demographics the ethnic Britons will be a minority in this country in less than 40 years time. Nothing else matters.

[Super Blue]

Ah, the very modest "Simon".

[generic]

You are not right. I can defend the position.