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Not too bad...not enough of a lead if it were an election but the fact that the Conservatives are unchanged is a big plus IMHO.

The boost therefore from the LD/Green/BNP/IND floaters

The good thing to take from this poll is we remain in the 40's

I do think though,DC is not vocal enough,he needs to put meat on the bones of policy.

I personally know Conservatives,Labour,Lib-Dems,all English,the one thing they all agree with Cameron on is the ENGLISH GRAND COMMITTEE idea.

The EGC,stokes up genunine interest in English folk who hate the issue not being resolved.

He mentioned it a while back,and nothing!,no detail no nothing,he needs to get his ideas sorted and in the press.

I was thinking a 6-8 point lead. 7 points, so about right really

Where has the other 2% that Labour has gained come from. The Tory share is steady and the Libs drop 1% so whence the other 2%, don't knows, wont says?

Phew! We Lib Dems are still on course to overtake labour soon, and Tories aswell before end of year. I remember 11% and 13% in the last 2 years. We've kept up the suspendors momentom and are very excrited. fabulous to think a lib dem majority of 140+ is only a year away!! Lyne Featherstone as Chancelor.

Steve Foley,

Perhaps the 2% 'unaccountable' rise in labour support you mention is taken from range of 'other' parties, eg Green, SNP, BNP etc - 'flaky' Labour voters who may return support to the party when they seem to be doing well, or at least better. Just an idea.


The polls pretty well reflect the reality of the situation. Whoever you vote for you're going to get more of the same. More bans, laws, fines, taxes, spying, power handed to the EU, expense fiddling, corruption etc etc. Very depressing.

"We've kept up the suspendors momentom and are very excrited."
I love this - shades of Prof Stanley Unwin! It reads like a Japanese person discussing his fetishistic enthusiasm for ladies' underwear...
Presumably your LibDem predictions are tongue in cheek, or - it being Saturday night - you're a shade too well bevvied.

I wonder what the effect on the polls will be once people start to unpick the spin and massaged figures from the G20.

It took some days for people to realise the 10% tax rate con in Brown's last budget to fund a tax cut. If the nonsense about a $5 trillion stimulus is presented in the same way this Labour government would be finished.

The only sticking point is the media fawning over President Obama. The media is so in thrall to him they refuse to believe he could be party to a Brownian stitch up of this kind.

So we have the start of a little Brown bounce all over again. It will not last.

There is only one valid poll, lets have it

"So we have the start of a little Brown bounce all over again. It will not last."

My suspicion too, since the coverage of G20 has already started to show it up for the sham many of us assumed it would be. I noticed that last time Brown got fawned at by the media - after the Labour conference - the polls changed 10 points (Labour up 7, Tories down 3). That this shift is nothing like as large bodes well for the Tories.

The mystery of Malcolm Redfellow @ 21:57 can be resolved at http://redfellow.wordpress.com/2009/04/04/censored-by-conservativehome/


You're so right :-(

We knew this would happen. It's good that our vote share has remained unchanged.

The key is that we hold our nerve, develop a narrative and a coherent response and ride it out. Events will not develop necessarily to Brown's advantage to paraphrase another leader.

This was part of the reason I postulated a snap election after the budget in my recent Platform article. If the lead takes a while to peter out and Brown claws back another 2% after the budget in three weeks to get within 5%, it could be game on.

A strategy to avoid this eventuality would be a good idea. Cameron should have everyone well disciplined for tomorrow and talk of an election should be pre-empted in order to get Brown in a corner.

I also think we need to scratch the surface of the "softening up" of the public in preparation for Labour going to the IMF again and pose some tricky questions on it.

Who are these people who flirt with voting Labour every time they get good press coverage?

2 more points and Labour are home and dry. 36% means that Labour form the next Government.

'I wonder what the effect on the polls will be once people start to unpick the spin and massaged figures from the G20'

I also wonder what the polls will be like when it emerges that the do nothing party would have done absolutely nothing to facilitate these talks, nothing. I see 'Cameron's comment in the house at PMQ'S of 'we are going up in the polls and you are going down' has come back to bite him on the ardse (as I predicted on Wednesday afternoon)

Still not a great poll for Labour. But a tax threshold budget is coming in two weeks. Watch this space tic toc tic toc


Probably not actually that far from the next election result,
although I'd go for 42-33-17

Do you really want 5 more years of Labour....think about it and think about it again...tell your neighbours...let them think about it!

Who are these people who flirt with voting Labour every time they get good press coverage?

People who are being no clear, realistic alternative, and who think that if you're going to have a left-wing government anyway, it might as well be one run by politicians who genuinely believe in what they're doing, rather than just parroting fashionable mantras in the hope that they'll get good press coverage.

Interesting to see how the Lib Dems, particularly Vince Cable have recently changed the delivery of there messages. A little less full on attack to actual mild praise for Browns handling of the G20. Are we seeing the early green shoots of a Lib Dem - Labour deal if the next parliament is hung? Just a thought.

Is the Scott Carlton that I know? udsu?

Great news for my blog. Watch for the dead cat bounce pussy cat any time soon. He is a gorgeous very large cat. Though sunbathing, looks as dead as dead can be!

Very good news is that the Conservative share holds steady.
Those 3 or 4% of floating voters will quite soon realise that, once again, they have been bamboozled by Labour spin and will drop back into the Undecided bracket.

Then again, Geoff Hoon enter stage right!!!!

Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!

Reality will click in again shortly. The Tories being pretty quiet at the moment is probably the best thing to do. To do ortherwise snacks of operating against the national interest by undermining the UK PM as world leaders meet.
Once this economic pantomime has moved on it will be time to trace out clearly the depth of the economic sh1t the country is in and then some strategy to sort it. Trouble for the Tories is that a growing number of people see this as the end of "Thatcherism" which does not reflect well on the Tories.

There are some more interesting stories about expenses in the Sunday papers so that should keep Brown & Co on the back foot for a couple of days.

In my opinion the BBC coverage of the G20 was not impartial. The G20 was like one of Brown's budgets - you only realise that you've been had when you see the details:-

1) No fiscal stimulus - and the budget is coming up shortly.

2)No provision for toxic assets.

3)!/2 the money is not new money.

Reality will probably set in next week. Regretfully this is not the end of the recession by a long way. Unemployment is likely to get a lot worse.

Probably be back to normal in the polls though by the end of next week.

That's it? Labour doesn't even reduce the Tories' support, just pick a bit up from elsewhere?

Pff, what a joke!

I hope Labour take heart from this poll, and go for a 2009 general election. :-)

This poll bounce was expected and will not last long.

It's definately not good news for Labour. The BBC hasn't broken its rule about not reporting single opinion polls to mention this one.

Although the movement is small overall it might hide two large counter movements.

I suggest that the G20 bounce was quite substantial but was partly drowned by the negative effect on Labour of Jacqui Smith's porn claim.

So you think that 7% (down from 20% last year) in the middle of a massive economic crisis is a good result. There are too many swing voters who do not trust Cameron and Osborne on the economy.

Most posters on here are far too complacent. If the lead shrinks further, Brown may call a snap election after the budget on April 22nd. Prepare for a general election on 4th June, the same day as the Euro elections.

Very worrying poll....Labour can be 6 to 8 points behind to win because Conservatives votes do not translate into seats at the same rate as Labour's does.

Secondly, the opinion poll gap ALWAYS closes in favour of the governing party in the real poll.

Third, what on earth will it take to get the voters to reject this shambles of a government?

The Conservatives NEED to be very worried about this poll for the sake of the country.


Single polls meean very little. It's the trend that counts. We would need to see a series of polls producing consistent results to identify a trend.

I do, however, agree that the Conservatives shouldn't be complacent. Our objective should be to not just win but to win big enough to keep Labour out for two or three terms.

Remember that the current constituency boundaries favour Labour. So a lead of under 10% may not result in a working majority for the Tories in Parlaiment.

With the current trends we seem to be heading for hung Parlaiment where the Lib DemoPrats will have the power!!!

This bouncelet is not surprising given the hagiographical coverage from the BBC

Eugene, Mike Smithson has written commentary after commentary on politicalbetting.com debunking that myth

In every election going back to the 1970s we have seen the Conservative position improve, relative to opinion polls, in the General Election itself - regardless of who is in power

Please tell me why are you so complacent considering you are effectively neck and neck in the polls. It is either bravado or stupidity, to be comfortable with the current poll ratings at the end of a 12 month period for the government,with their lies, sleaze, corruption, incompetence, together with their politically correct and partisan policies that have alienated the electorate and made them probably the most hated government ever.
They could not get any worse, yet 30%+ of the electorate are still going to vote for them after all that has happened. The logical assumption has to be if they become more competent, or even give the impression they are more competent in the next few months then 'the only way is up'.
The probable reason the gap is so small is not because of what they have done, but rather the failure of the Conservatives to produce any visible policies that even the floating voters can hang their hats on, never mind winning over voters of other parties. You are playing a very dangerous game!!

Eugene the poll gabalways closes in favour of the governing party.It didn't in 2001 or 2005.
I think this Brown bounce will be shortived. The truly odious Hoon has seen to that together with the utterly inadequate Darling.
I'm normally grateful to politicians of whatever party who are big enough to admit to being wrong. It doesn't happen too often.
But not in Darling's case. He has made hopelessly wrong forecasts on a serial basis (still predicting growth in the economy of 2.75% in June 2008)and nobody but nobody with any knowledge of the subject took the figures produced at the PBR in November seriously.
This completely inadequate man should be replaced immediately as Chancellor.

I think an October election is now almost certain. Brown would be mad not to go then. He will never have a better chance of winning.

Still a large gap for us - Brown screwed this economy up, and Brown will pay for it in the end!

Just heard Bob Worcester say on a radio interview with Andrew Pierce that he expects the Brown "bounce" to last "a week to ten days".

2 more points and Labour are home and dry. 36% means that Labour form the next Government.

Posted by: joshuwahwah | April 04, 2009 at 23:09


Absolute rubbish. If you use a swing calculator it's perfectly possible for Labour to get 36% but for the Conservatives to win a majority, or at least be by far the largest party.

44-36-17 give the Conservatives a narrow majority on UK Polling Report's swing calculator http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator

The actual percentage of share of the votes doesn't matter that much per se - it's how each party does relative to the others. Labour have to be 2-3 points AHEAD of the Conservatives to win a majority. Just getting 36% regardless won't do.

44-36-17 give the Conservatives a narrow majority on UK Polling Report's swing calculator http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Posted by: Mark B | April 05, 2009 at 13:00

Where do you get the extra 5% from. In 2005 total votes for the 3 main parties was 92% of the poll, your reference suggests they will get 97%. I've no idea who the stolen 5% will vote for, but i have no doubt they will probably vote for somebody other than Lib/Lab/Con

44-36-17 give the Conservatives a narrow majority on UK Polling Report's swing calculator http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Posted by: Mark B | April 05, 2009 at 13:00

Where do you get the extra 5% from. In 2005 total votes for the 3 main parties was 92% of the poll, your reference suggests they will get 97%. I've no idea who the stolen 5% will vote for, but i have no doubt they will probably vote for somebody other than Lib/Lab/Con

Yes, those numbers do use a very small share for Others. However, I was merely trying to show that joshuwahwah's claim that Labour will win if they get 36% no matter what everybody else does is rubbish. Labour have to be ahead of the Conservatives. The Conservatives only need to lead by 1 point for Labour to lose their majority.

The shadow front benches problem is that they don't seem nearly as bothered by labours hopeless government as the public are.

What labour are doing is pure madness - but the shadow ministers continue to talk and behave as if it is basically rational but just not very well executed.

This leaves people worried that the tories really will be 'pretty much more of the same'.

The country needs revolution, not evolution. I'll accept that there is no point getting hyped up over revolution and then having to twiddle your thumbs for a year until the general election. But the tories should declare war on the government.

Labour are expected to deliver 3,000,000 unemployed by the end of the year - the tories need to offer each and every one of them hope that new, real jobs will be available - this means new (wealth generating private sector) companies are needed, and there will be 3,000,000 people ready to start them (plus any public sector wealth consumers who we can no longer afford to give free rides to).

Labour are doing 'the wrong thing' they are doing it for 'the wrong reasons' they are addressing the 'wrong issues' they are the 'wrong people' to be running the country.

How much dirt do labour have on the tories for the tories to be so restrained?

I don't believe it is a question of having or not having "dirt", pp.
The fact is that the British people are hard-wired to distrust revolutionaries and hot-heads. In 1649 we killed our King and the Civil War leading up to that Regicide fractured communities and families along fault lines which took hundreds of years to heal (some might argue they never quite have).
The British have thereafter tended to leave "Revolution" to the likes of the French and the Russians. We prefer political Evolution and change through grown-up negotiation and pragmatism.

"Who are these people who flirt with voting Labour every time they get good press coverage?"

I suppose they are the most floating of the floating voters. The sad part is that these butterflies of politics have a power out of all proportion with their relatively small numbers. I suspect that they are often less intelligent voters who are motivated more by emotional factors than hard handedness. Anyone who is willing to switch their votes because of a good speech by Brown that has made them feel good, needs their heads examined. The only way to deal with such people is by hard campaigning.

"Labour are doing 'the wrong thing' they are doing it for 'the wrong reasons' they are addressing the 'wrong issues' they are the 'wrong people' to be running the country."

A mantra we must repeat ad nauseum over the next year or so.

"Do you really want 5 more years of Labour?"

No, but I think that "Boxwallah", the combined entity known as "Jack Stone", and Resident Leftie probably do.

Hi Joshuwahaha

Yes its me!!! lol

This Brown bounce isn't surprising with all the positive spin he got from the G20 summit. The BBC in one bulletin did briefly mention David Cameron's response saying Brown should address problems at home such as struggling businesses etc, but only after their mention of what Nick Clegg said, as usual giving the LibDems equal weight as the Conservatives as an opposition party.

This bounce might not the last before a General Election. Do I recall correctly that the Pope is visiting next year, the likely election year? I'm sure Labour won't use such a visit for political advantage to create another 'bounce' (e.g. to counter indications of support in some of the RC hierarchy for David Cameron's compassionate and pro-family social agenda?). Of course not. When the election comes, the more positive mood could work in Labour's favour.

But might the fact that while Labour picked up 3 points, we were unchanged (remaining at 41%), indicate support for Labour might be more fragile than our support?

Having looked at the excel spread sheet, has any one worked the expected seat allocation, esp echally the minor parties?

I don't think its a matter of dirt, I think its a matter of cowardice of Cameron's part. Cameron doesn't want to seem tough, because that's how the old tories were, and he'd rather be seen as Blair incarnate really. this is another example of the complete lack of opposition that Labour are facing at the moment.

One of the easy hits against Brown is his dishonesty, e.g. private pensions, 10% tax and endless statistics fiddles. His overblown rhetoric about the G20 is a bubble waiting to be pricked, really it is mostly a con. If that is made clear not only will his bounce subside but people will take his popularity way below 30%. It's a series of open goals, trouble is that ignoring open goals is one of the great skills of the Conservative party, e.g. where is Osborne's article in a Sunday paper demolishing (or if you prefare Hannanising) Brown's rather childish spin on the G20.

There is already a sense here in the US that the economy is starting to turn. Even though the UK economy is lagging the US economy by a good six months, and even though the unemployment numbers are the last indicator to reflect an improvement, there's plenty of time left yet before an election must be called. I wouldn't go writing off Mr Brown just yet.

Thatcherite88 ?

I would hate to label you, but dropping 88 might be sensible. May be you are unaware of its under culture meaning. As it is you are labeling yourself as trouble.

"The fact is that the British people are hard-wired to distrust revolutionaries and hot-heads" Quite right Sally, many of these people have little truck with Democracy. I can be radical myself, but would advise people to take me with a pinch of salt. There is a similarity between the legitimate expression of Ideals in opposition and the promises of the revolutionaries, but the implementation of those ideas is still best preformed by revision rather than the outright bloody minded change of revolution.
I believe in the Divine right of the Crown to rule, but insist that my ruler is not self appointed. Neither will an election ever raise a man up who will rule as well as the best Kings. Brown has been trying to water down our queens royalty and sovereignty over our church. Rome-Europe isn't somewhere I want to be as Catholics dwell there and drool on about a Queen in heaven. I don't want any of their revealed mystery religion and so I am 100% against European union. Blair is a principle enemy of people like myself. D.C. is a fine young man and he will make a good figurehead and it will again be open season on the natural man. How many of us are twitchy about 2012, the kingdom of heaven is at hand I hear so many good brothers and sisters say. wouldn't it be well if we were to allow ourselves the luxury of political uniforms again? I think it is so far better to be able to spot one another.

The most significant news of this weekend in electoral terms is not the post G20 poll.Rather it is the telling intervention of Alistair Darling.He is trying in true New Labour fashion to prepare the ground for the Economic devestation to come.

Darling glibly tells us that he got the calculations wrong and that growth will not return when he predicted it would only last November!!If this is true it casts great doubt upon the competence of the treasury.Although with every word I see uttered by Yvette Cooper I really do believe that are that bad.

Nevertheless Labour are now attempting to come clean on the true scale of their recession.Hemmed in by the historic public debt there are no more wepons to fire now.The coming months will see the unfolding of the economic devestation at home.Gordon will not then so easily be able to swan around waffling on about a global crisis.He will see the reckoning coming not from the vociferous protestors at the G20 in London but the silent millions who will lose their jobs and maybe even their homes on the alter of Gordon's recession.

Frankly if I were Cameron I would be very concerned that Brown has pulled back so easily.
Yes he will probably lose it again but when he goes to the Country he will also experience the advantage of being the incumbent.
The Tory lead is fragile and it is time for Cameron to be courageous and come out with Tory policies to cut public spending dramatically.

No matter what Brown does the unemployed will be 2,500,000/3,000,000 by the end of the year, food prices will stay high, fuel prices could be back at £1-00+, and more of our high street shops will be closing.
Where will the car industry be by then, as short time working is due to end in May.

He will be mad not to go for a June election, as the longer he leaves it the deeper he will be in it.

I agree with Jack Stone (astonishly). Gordon needs to call an election soon if he wants to have any chance of winning.

My money remains on June, as I've been saying for months. But October is possible. If he does that it'll be a bad mistake, though. The current bounce, and the second bounce he will get from the forthcoming budget, will be dead and gone by October.

If he goes in June... we need to fight damn hard. Because in the current crazy political climate he'd be in with a chance.

The problem for the Conservative Party is that the opposition are not seen as such, merely another flavour of the same bitter pill.
Until Mr. Cameron comes out of his shell and offers an alternative vision there will not be the "clear blue water" that an opposition party confronted with such an obviously corrupt and incompetent government should expect.

The ball remains in your court Mr. Cameron.

It is all very well castigating David Cameron.The reality is this.This government is losing the next election through it's own actions.The next Conservative administration will face an unprecented challenge.

The number one priority will be the public finances.This is not as we would wish and will inevitably impact upon our programme.In this endeavour we will need to have all options open this is not 1979.It is likely that the tax burden overall will not be reduced in the first term.Our focus will of necessity be upon reducing expenditure.

Against this background we can not make promises merely to satisfy ourselves.DC is correct to point the way to a socially responsible approach prior to us winning the next election.The actions required after we win will not be poupular people need to conditioned now weaned of the intoxication of debt.In this endeavour the political and economic cycle are not synchronized.We must manage expectations.

Cameron has been too quiet and the Tories in general haven't been vocal enough in their attacks on the government and on talking up and upturn in the economy.

Being 7% ahead is not bad but not good either. The consolation is that while the BBC have worked very to boost Brown's credibility over G20 and it has worked a bit, the post G20 dysphoria and the dissection of those dodgy figures so triumphantly announced is likely to cause reversion to 10-12% ahead.

Still not enough. The party must go for a Labour wipeout and settle for nothing less.

The Conservatives need to open up another front where they have the advantage and that should be constititional. The idea of an English Grand Committee is regarded as just another Westminster fudge(because it is)by the political class in an attempt to fend off the inevitable. Cameron should declare for a referendum in England on an English parliament within the United Kingdom and start inserting this idea in the minds of the electorate right now.

Now that would be a challenge for Labour and while the WestminsterLib/Lab/Con class would be for a while discomfited they would soon come around. After a while they would like it.
Out in the country it would be solidly popular.

He will not go in June or October or any other date in 2009. The economy will be starting to look better (if briefly)at the end of the first quarter of 2010, and that is when he will go. So I see his best hope being in May 2010. Of course these first shoots of recovery will be an illusion, and by the 3rd quarter of 2010 inflation will be rising. Is anyone running a book? I'm willing to put some money were my mouth is on this one.

The Bishop is right.There will be no election this year.May 2010 will be Brown's armageddon.He simply would have no chance of winning this year.His strategy must be to be able to point to some upturn in our economy.

This may be temporarily possible in March or April next year. Any recovery will be choaked of by an inevitable tightenning of monetary policy to combat the effect of Brown Fiscal stimili and so called quantatiive easing. Andrew Lillico analysed this well on PMQ's on radio Five live last week.

Our strategy should recognise these facts.We are been driven inexorably by economic events.In this environment promises are worthless.

I commented earlier that the BBC hadn't reported this poll in line with their policy of not reporting individual poll results. I was wrong. They have reported it here


I'm hoping that this "Brown Bounce" will be short-lived. Also, it's surprising that the recent expense claim scandals have not made more of a difference to recent poll ratings.

More emphasis and better presentation of Conservative policies is needed, without further delay. In particular, they should say more about the ongoing immigration crisis, the potential benefits to be gained from leaving the EU and civil liberties issues.

Many people would also like to see an end to the promotion of multiculturalism, and the undermining of our traditional moral and cultural values. Furthermore, only a Conservative Government would genuinely seek to help the small and medium-sized businesses of this country.

I've said before and will say again, there will be no election this year. Brown is having the time of his life. Running around like a latter day JM Keynes at Bretton Woods (only better coz I'm PM as well).

He hasn't led in the polls since October 2007 and over the past year he has trailed by 10% minimum. So he'd get gubbed.

And having waited all his life and especially 1997-2007, there is no way he'll call and end to the fun without a guarantee of winning.

Yes, the BBC ignores Messrs Cameron & Osborne. Yes the BBC portrays Brown & Labour in a very positive light. So my question is what are we to do with this state sponsored propaganda machine?

Because now we get a diet of Government Ministers and no comment from the Opposition. But after the next election, it's going to be reversed. But as the Government, we will be able to resolve this disgrace. But will we?

I agree with most of what you say, "A Reformed Labour Voter". Even so, you may be exaggerating in your reference to the BBC as a "state sponsored propaganda machine". Indeed, there is probably no simple (or quick) solution to the ongoing problem of left-wing bias at the BBC.

I also would like members of the Conservative Opposition to make more meaningful appearances in the popular media. Brief announcements or so-called "soundbites" are never enough.

@ Julian L Hawksworth

"Indeed, there is probably no simple (or quick) solution to the ongoing problem of left-wing bias at the BBC".

Not really the Dunkirk spirit is it?

What about Privatisation?

Or just a new balanced Board of Governors with an independent Director General?

If something is this unfair, then it must be addressed. It is bad enough that the constituency boundaries hand an in-built electoral advantage to the Socialists.

So there is no need for the tax payer funded BBC (which dominates how the public in 'informed' of the News) to force feed us with Propaganda as well.

The poll results don’t show don’t knows/won’t votes. The attached spreadsheet shows 2,125 people polled, 1,530 indicating support for one of the 3 main parties with 10% of those voting supporting others – so 1,700 (80%) will vote for someone. Given turnout at the last election was c60% are people being honest as to whether they’ll vote?

The actual breakdown of voting intentions amongst the 2,125 sample is:

Tory 32% (690)
Labour 27% (570)
Won’t vote/don’t know 18% (425)
Lib Dem 13% (270)
Others 8% (170)

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