PoliticsHome predicts return of 20% plus Tory leads

Populus have a poll for The Times that finds lots of voter satisfaction with Alistair Darling's Budget.  The small sample (518) backs the 50p tax rate by a large majority and also supports the new allowance for savers, the scrappage scheme for old cars and the increase in alcohol duty.

It would be right to be cautious about the political implications of the poll, however.  Not only is it a small sample it also reminds me of Populus' post-2008 Budget poll.  That suggested positive voter reaction to individual Budget measures and failed to predict the very big boost to Tory fortunes that two conventional voter intention polls found within days.

PoliticsHome are tonight predicting that we'll soon return to Tory leads of 20% and more.  Bold stuff.  I certainly expect the Budget to have enhanced still further the Tories' electoral position.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Malcolm Dunn]

Yes me too. Finally I'm starting to believe that Labour are finished whatever they do now. The narrative is firmly against them and they will no longer be given the benefit of any doubt.
More reason that George should be more open about his plans with the electorate. I genuinely believe that they will respect him for it even when he has to deliver very painful news.
Being open would be better for the country and I think,for the Party.If we win an election under a false or hidden prospectus pretty soon any popularity will evaporate and George will be thought of as just another dishonest politician.

[Jsheedycf]

I've had a crisis of belief in the party recently and the budget has only further worried me. My membership comes up for renewal soon and it's very tempting not to renew it under the current leadership, I joined the party of Thatcher looking for a small government, individual aspiration approach but am dissappointed on both fronts.

I hope the reason Mr Osborne is being light on his plans is merely to get elected and that the party takes a much needed swing to the right in order to get things under control and hopefully reverses this ludicrous 50% Tax Band.

Always good to hear the likelihood that Labour will be ousted at the next election is increasing as PoliticsHome suggests, but I hope that we do not turn out to be the same lack of substance and abundance of spin that Blair/Brown brought to the table.

[Norm Brainer]

The small sample (518) backs the 50p tax rate by a large majority and also supports the new allowance for savers, the scrappage scheme for old cars and the increase in alcohol duty.

518 ... isn't that the total visitors to labourhome?

Apart from the new allowance to savers which I like (but most people who have no savings left think is pointless), what planet have these 518 come from. I/they can't be that out of touch surely?

[Jsheedycf]

Agreed. The only decent plan in the whole budget was the increase in allowance into ISA's in my opinion.

Everything else was designed to penalise the wealth creators and shore-up core labour support! Why aren't we opposing this stuff!

[Andrew]

Sky News reporting a lead of 19% in latest You Gov poll

[Super Blue]

........ and a fantastic speech by George this afternoon!

[John Bright]

There is absolutely no room for complacency.

It isn't over until the Queen invites one of the party leaders to form the next government.

[Freddy]

I don't want the Conservatives presenting Labour with a large stationary target!

I hope our lot don't spell out their plans too much - this will reduce the scope of the BBC, the Daily Mirror, etc. in attacking those plans.

Has anybody forgotten how little we knew about Labour's plans before the 1997 election - that was quite deliberate you know!