ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

New Ipsos Mori poll puts Tory lead at 13%

A new poll from Ipsos Mori has just been released, putting the parties on the following standings:

Comparisons are with last month's equivalent poll.

The seemingly sudden surge in Lib Dem support is remarkable. Does it perhaps suggest that they have gained by keeping out of the claim and counter claims over "Smeargate"? Or is it a rogue poll?

Jonathan Isaby

Update on the new comments system

The new comments system (explained here) is now operational across ConservativeHome except on these ToryDiary pages.  The huge number of historic comments that it is necessary to reload has caused the delay.  Hopefully all will be completed within 24 hours.

ICM suggests Tories are losing a little support

After the weekend polls showing Labour support down an ICM survey for The Guardian will disappoint CCHQ.  The Tory lead is down to 10%.  It was 13% at the end of March.

7am on Tuesday 21st April

Whereas the headline voting intention figure appears to suggest a drop in Conservative support, there is better news on the question about which party is most trusted to handle the economy, as The Guardian reports:

"But underlying trends are worrying for Labour. In particular, the government is losing trust on the economy, while the Conservatives are winning it. Asked whether they trust the Tory team of David Cameron and George Osborne, or Labour's Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, to run the economy, 45% pick the Tories and 35% Labour.

"When ICM last asked the question, in January this year, the Tory lead was just two points, 37-35. In January 2008, Labour led by seven points, 39-32. That means the opposition is now polling ahead of its overall party vote score on economic competence. In the past this issue has been seen as Tory weakness."

Boris fulfils promise to hang portrait of The Queen at City Hall

What is the most electorally effective Tory policy and the most transformational Tory policy?

Over the weekend I published a leaflet from Lorraine Fullbrook that presented nine winsome Tory policies to the voters of South Ribble.

A week ago I published a 'Medicine manifesto' of policies that Britain needed and which weren't necessarily Tory policy.

Later this week I plan to publish a mini manifesto of existing Tory policies - bringing together the electorally potent policies and the transformational policies.  Sometimes they'll be different and sometimes the same.

In my mind the most electorally potent Tory policy is our pledge on inheritance tax.

The most transformational policy is the Michael Gove policy of allowing parents to establish schools - schools that will be able to decide their own system of examination and teachers' pay and conditions.

Please use the thread below to answer the questions for yourself and help me compile the manifesto.  If we can avoid getting sidetracked into discussion of policies not yet in the manifesto I would be grateful!

Tim Montgomerie

"Labour are relying on diversionary tactics - continual lies and smears"

Those words come from a Tory briefing from 1979 highlighted by Alistair Cooke on the BlueBlog. Nothing much changes, eh?

Click here to read more of Alistair Cooke's post and scan through the archived documents.

More than a quarter of the original A-List are no longer seeking a parliamentary seat

The publication of CCHQ's "priority list" of candidates here in May 2006 was a big moment in the four year development of ConservativeHome, with all attempts by the party to keep the identity of the names on the so-called A-List a secret quickly being blown away.

But if these were the chosen candidates which the party hierarchy wanted to see fast-tracked into Parliament, how successful was the exercise and what has happened to those who have not yet been selected?

Three years on, ConservativeHome decided to find out.

Of those 100 names on the original priority list (one listed as being there, Timothy Coleridge, says that he was never on it, but merely given dispensation to apply for one notionally safe seat with which he had local links), our analysis has found that almost half - 45 - have been selected - but that more than a quarter have stopped looking for a seat for the general election which will take place in the next twelve months.

Here is a summary of our findings:

Tories urge £600m investment in a new generation of scientists and engineers

The Conservatives have today urged Alistair Darling to adopt a £600m package to provide more science and training courses for what otherwise could be a lost generation of scientists and engineers.  The package which, the Tories say, will be financed by spending restraint in 2009/10* communicates (1) a concern for potentially unemployed young graduates and (2) also the party's belief that Britain's economic future depends upon much more investment in tech-based industries.

The £600m should be spent in three ways according to the plan's joint authors, David Willetts and George Osborne:

• £350 million to provide funding for 25,000 new Masters Degrees in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)
• £100 million to fund an extra 50,000 learners aged over 25 in STEM and other subjects
• £150 million to support the thousands of apprentices who risk losing their training place during a recession.

Tim Montgomerie

* The Tories say this scheme is affordable if Labour adopt the Tory plan for reduced growth in spending - a plan that will save approximately £5bn in one year.  The Tories have earmarked the rest of the £5bn for tax incentives to save.

Darling may be about to set second supertax trap for Tories

Jonathan Oliver and David Smith report that Alistair Darling may use this week's Budget to beef up the planned supertax on higher earners:

"Last year the Chancellor announced the introduction in 2011 of a 45% top rate of income tax for people earning more than £150,000. Darling has come under pressure from Labour colleagues to reduce this new top-rate threshold to £100,000 – a move that would lead to higher tax bills for 500,000 high earners."

Opponents of George Osborne's acquiescence on the current 45p plan feared that this would happen.  We shall know more on Wednesday.

Last year's surge in the polls towards the Tories followed Darling's Budget of green tax rises.  If the advance speculation is right and Darling plans to 'greenwash' tax rises we might see a hardening of this weekend's large Tory leads.

Interviewed on Andrew Marr's Sunday show earlier today Mr Osborne said that it wasn't sensible for him to set out his plans to close Labour's economic hole until the true size of the hole was clearer.  A year ago he was being asked to fill a £40bn deficit, he said.  More recently the talk was of a £110bn deficit.  Now there's even the possibility that the deficit will be £180bn.  The Shadow Chancellor said one thing is absolutely true: If spending cuts are necessary they will be "Labour cuts" and if tax rises are necessary they will be "Labour tax rises" - all necessary to deal with "Labour's budget deficit".  

During the interview he declined to toughen his rhetoric on public spending.  Talking of "restraint" rather than reductions.

Writing in The Sunday Times Mr Osborne did use a very good turn of phrase to explain why taxes should be a last resort for dealing with the debt crisis: "We should not be overtaxed because Labour has overspent."  ConHome - with our new Star Chamber - has today launched a search for spending cuts.

Tim Montgomerie

> Iain Dale thought George Osborne's Sunday AM interview was "probably his best ever interview".  Iain focuses on the revelation that Gordon Brown did not write one of his letters of regret to George Osborne's wife, Frances.  Mrs Osborne being a victim of McBride's smear operation.

Tories see England and St George as winning theme

The Mayor of London Boris Johnson writes for today's Mail on Sunday about the massive response that greeted his response to celebrate St George's Day:

"The phones went wild. The emails and the letters started to swamp our response teams. People started crossing the road to shake my hand, pumping it up and down and thanking me with embarrassing fervour. I felt like some Texan prospector who has idly whacked his pickaxe on some piece of unpromising ground and then stood back in amazement before a great gusher of erupting oil."

For Boris, the secret of Englishness is our language:

"If there is one thing that marks us out and defines us, it is the language, the greatest, the most fertile and the most stunningly successful language the world has ever seen. The Germans may beat us at music; the Italians have the edge in painting – but the English beat all comers at poetry, and that is why it is right that we should celebrate St George’s Day in April. It is not only the month that inspired Chaucer and T.S.Eliot. On Thursday we also mark the birth of William Shakespeare, the man who mobilised that language more effectively than anyone before or since.

So why is English so formidable? Why does it knock Mandarin into a cocked hat? Because it has twice as many words as either French or German.  There are 500,000 words in the dictionary, and that is because it is a confluence of the two great streams of Romance and Anglo-Saxon. It is a mongrel language, a language that shamelessly and brilliantly continues to absorb imports from around the world. That is why it is so fitting that St George is himself an import. Like my ancestors, it turns out he was a Turk, and it is testament to the generosity of the English that we have made him our saint.

According to Gibbon, he had nothing to do with a dragon, but was a Cappadocian merchant who made a fortune selling bacon to the Roman army. What could be more appropriate? Napoleon said the English were a nation of shopkeepers. He meant it as an insult. We take it as a compliment. It is that spirit of small-business entrepreneurship that encouraged St George to flog his bacon to the Romans and will lead this country out of recession. So come on out and celebrate the multi-faceted genius of this country, and cry God for Harry, England and St George the seller of bacon!"

Pasted below is a photograph of our candidate in Harlow, Robert Halfon. Yesterday he circulated a leaflet in the town centre of the Essex new town calling for St George's Day to become a public holiday.  The leaflet is going to every home in Harlow.

Tim Montgomerie.

BPIX gives Tories 19% lead

BPIX is related to YouGov so the changes are compared to the most recent YouGov poll.

Less than an hour ago I reported a Sunday Telegraph survey with the Tories 17% ahead.

8.30am on Sunday 19th April

We now have more details of the BPIX poll:

• David Cameron wipes the floor with Gordon Brown on all but one measures of personal qualities.  Voters think he is stronger, more likeable, more honest, more trustworthy and more competent than the Prime Minister.  Brown is also seen as more out of touch, twice as sleazy and more interested in himself.  The only fly in the ointment for David Cameron is that by 30% to 29% voters survey by the Mail on Sunday/ BPIX see the Tory leader as more shallow than Brown.
• The Liberal Democrats are at 17%.
• 33% of voters think that Labour is MORE sleazy than the John Major Tories, 23% LESS sleazy. 32% say there is no difference.
• 25% say Brown's Downing Street operation is dirtier than Blair's.  Only 6% say it is not.
• 44% say Brown is a worse PM than Blair.  Just 10% say he is better.

More in the Mail on Sunday.

Tim Montgomerie

Sunday Telegraph poll has Tories 17% ahead in first post-McBride survey

An opinion poll for The Sunday Telegraph puts the Tories 17% ahead.  That's an increased lead of 4% and would give the Conservatives a parliamentary majority of  114 according to UK Polling Report's Swing Calculator.

The poll is by a new entity called Marketing Sciences Ltd.  I understand that it is a sister company to ICM.  The changes in the graphic are therefore compared with the most recent ICM poll.  I have not put the numbers into the ConHome Poll of Polls, however, because I don't know if Marketing Sciences will be polling regularly.

Other poll findings:

• Voters think that Brown is MORE likely to resort to spin than Tony Blair.  Quite something!
• 36% of voters blame Brown for presiding over a dirty tricks culture in Downing Street but a larger proportion, 50% do not.
• 75% of voters say dumping Brown will make no difference to how they would vote.  Of those for whom it might make a difference 13% say it would make them less likely to support Labour and 11% more likely.

Tim Montgomerie

Eddie George has died

Former Bank of England Governor Eddie George has died.

David Cameron issued this statement:

"I was very sad to hear of the death of Lord George. Eddie George was an exceptionally distinguished Governor of the Bank of England over a long period. He was a fine public servant of great decency, and a source of wise advice on the current economic crisis on the occasions I have seen him - including at a 70th birthday lunch not very long ago. I pass on my condolences to his wife and family."

I worked at the Bank of England from 1992 to 1998.  'Steady Eddie' was hugely respected throughout the Bank.  He was very proud to have been Governor when the Bank won independence over interest rate policy but I remember his face at an extraordinary meeting of all staff in 1997 when he told us about the formation of the FSA and the loss of the Bank's supervisory functions.  No negative words passed his lips but his face was a picture of anger.

May his family know peace at this time.

Tim Montgomerie

6.30pm Statement from Ken Clarke: "This is very sad news and we will all miss him very much.  I always enjoyed working with him; he was a very wise head with a very calm temperament.  His advice was always worth having and he was a reliable colleague in every type of crisis.”

Theme of Spring Forum will be 'Routemap to Recovery'

Jonathan Isaby and I will both be at the party's Spring Forum in Cheltenham next weekend, 25th to 26th April.  We hope to see lots of ConHome readers there.

The theme of the weekend will be 'Routemap to Recovery'.  David Cameron and key colleagues will set out the Conservative plan to "tackle Labour's Debt Crisis", "rebalance our economy" and "reform welfare".

Over the weekend we'll learn who will succeed Don Porter as Chairman of the National Conservative Convention.

It's probably the thinnest programme I've ever seen at a Tory Conference.  There are only two half hour sessions on the Saturday for all registered attendees.  A thirty minute session at 1pm from Andrew Lansley on the NHS and straight afterwards a thirty minute session on education from Michael Gove.

On the Sunday there are three hours of proceedings with speeches from Eric Pickles (10 minutes), George Osborne, Dan Hannan (10 minutes), Ken Clarke and David Cameron (25 minutes).  Oliver Letwin and Theresa May will also chair panel sessions.

One very welcome development is the running of five practical workshops on the Sunday morning.  There'll be five workshops and attendees will be able to attend up to two:

• Producing Better Campaigning Literature
• Building A Successful Delivery Network
• The Role of the Association Chairman
• Managing Association Membership 
• Setting Up Job Clubs

On the fringe there are two receptions on the Saturday: one hosted by the Freedom Association and Roger Helmer, another by CWF.  Boris Johnson (who is giving an exclusive one-on-one interview with ConHome next weekend) is the speaker at the Saturday evening dinner.  Clashing with the Party Workshops on the Sunday is a TRG champagne brunch with Ken Clarke.  Should I keep that a secret from Jonathan and go to that and insist he covers the workshop on 'The Role of the Association Chairman'?

Tim Montgomerie

Sir Malcolm Rifkind makes the case against his own hope for a nuclear free world

The Daily Telegraph today publishes key extracts from a speech that Sir Malcolm Rifkind has given on his hope for a "Global Zero"; a nuclear free world.

Although the former Foreign Secretary says that total elimination would be "extremely difficult" he says that the pursuit of the task would be very good for the world:

"If we can reduce the current number dramatically, and radically improve verification and inspection, we will have started a process that could lead to zero; we will have ensured the continuation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which the vast majority of countries respect and observe; we will have made it much easier for the Security Council to put successful pressure on North Korea and Iran; and far more difficult for terrorists to get their hands on fissile material. That would be a historic achievement – and one that our children and grandchildren would most certainly thank us for."

I have sympathy with Sir Malcolm's point that a reduction in nuclear weaponry would reduce the possibility of terrorists getting their hands on fissile material but not with his implications for the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.  As I have written before, Tehran and Pyongyang actually have an added incentive to acquire a nuclear weapon if other world powers disarm.  The reason can actually be found within Sir Malcolm's speech:

"If the United States destroyed all its nuclear weapons but Russia, secretly, retained one or two, it would have the power to blackmail Washington without fear of comparable retaliation."

The difficulty of verification means and the ease with which nuclear weapons could be 're-acquired' by hostile powers means that all talk of complete disarmament is unhelpful.  As Margaret Thatcher said in 2000, nuclear weapons cannot be disinvented.  Leading Tory politicians would be better advised to support American investment in missile defence systems.  The Obama administration has sent out conflicting signals on its commitment to continue President Bush's deployment efforts.

Tim Montgomerie

Nick Herbert to investigate practicalities of charging housebuilders to invest in compensatory environmental protection

In the last couple of days the Tory leadership has been making a determined effort to show that green Conservatism is alive and kicking.  Yesterday George Osborne announced ten new green initiatives in advance of Wednesday's Budget.  Speaking to the Wildlife Trust today David Cameron has announced that Nick Herbert MP, Shadow Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, will investigate the practicalities of setting up a scheme that will ensure any development that damages the environment makes a compensating investment in the environment elsewhere.

The Tory scheme was first reported by The Guardian in February.  A cost of £5,000 per average house was mentioned by that newspaper at the time although ConHome doesn't expect the Tory proposal to be so expensive.  Nonetheless, it could significantly raise the cost of housebuilding but would release enormous sums for investment in new parkland or for protecting areas of outstanding natural beauty.

Boris to unveil portrait of the Queen at City Hall

Not long after taking office as London Mayor, Boris Johnson discovered that his predecessor (perhaps not that surprisingly) had never installed a portrait of the Queen at City Hall.

ConservativeHome is therefore delighted to reveal that this shameful omission is finally to be put right next Monday, which is the eve of Her Majesty's 83rd birthday.

Boris himself will be unveiling the portrait and we will be sure to post a photograph of the occasion on the site.

Jonathan Isaby 

All but The Mirror may desert Labour

Newspaper endorsements are not as valuable as they once were but the editorial endorsements of a newspaper are still actively sought by politicians - not least because they tend to influence the overall news priorities of that newspaper.

Over the last 24 hours I've been speaking to journalists within all of Britain's main daily newspapers (and The Economist) - at least two on each - and speculating about their likely endorsements at the next election.

What we are likely to witness is Fleet Street making a mass defection from Labour to the Conservatives.

Only The Mirror is sure to endorse Labour.

Fleet Street's four swing voters - the FT, Economist, Times and London Evening Standard - are likely to endorse the Conservatives although no final decisions have been taken.

Commercial and ideological reasons mean that The Guardian and Independent will stop a long way short of endorsing the Conservatives but are likely to continue to give David Cameron a fairer hearing than they have given any previous Tory leader.

More details below the graphic.

The survey of likely endorsements will be hugely encouraging to the Tory machine.  Andy Coulson has coordinated targeted wooing of all of Britain's newspaper editors and proprietors.  David Cameron's office was in touch with the new owner of the London Evening Standard within hours of him assuming control of the title.  CCHQ are encouraged by the thinking across Fleet Street but assume that they will still have to work hard to ensure that each individual deal is sealed.  Most newspaper editors won't make a final decision until much, much closer to polling day.

George Osborne will only guarantee that hospitals and overseas aid are protected from spending cuts

1pm Update: In response to this, a Conservative spokesman has just emailed me to say:

"Our position on protected areas of spending for 2009-10 is the same - we have ring fenced the health, education, defence and aid departmental budgets, but would spend £5bn less than Labour on other things."

---

Yesterday it was Frank Field; today it is shadow chancellor George Osborne who is warning the public that drastic action will be required in order to deal with the "atrocious" state of the public finances.

Mr Osborne has given an interview to the FT (of which there is more inside the paper here) in which he asserts that Labour's projected 1.1% annual increase in public spending between 2011 and 2014 is "unsustainable" and that it will be spending cuts rather than tax rises which account for reducing the the fiscal deficit:

"You don’t want to kill off the recovery with heavy tax rises that bring you back to square one... I’ve mentally adjusted myself and David Cameron has mentally adjusted himself to the fact that we are going to have to take some very difficult decisions for the good of the country."

But anyone expecting a swathe of detailed proposals in response to next week's Budget - or at any point before the general election - will be disappointed:

Mr Osborne said the Conservatives would not be drawn into a rerun of the last election, when they came under fire for revealing detailed plans of proposed cuts. He signalled that the Tories would present most of their tax and spending policy in terms of broad principles only, rather than allowing the run-up to the election expected next summer to become “drowned in numbers”.

Damian Green wants his DNA back

Ten days ago, shadow home secretary Chris Grayling demanded that the Government put a stop to storing the samples of innocent people on the national DNA database.

No surprise then, that shadow home affairs minister Damian Green - a free man after the CPS decided not to prosecute him over the Home Office leaks - is making an issue out of the fact that his DNA is now stored on that database.

According to The Times:

A sample was taken when he was arrested in connection with leaks from the Home Office and can be retained even though he has not been charged. The law also allows samples taken from people who are subsequently acquitted to be kept.

The Ashford MP and Tory immigration spokesman is to ask Sir Paul Stephenson, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, to remove his sample from the database. He said: "I believe that no innocent people should have their DNA on the database."

Quite right too.

Jonathan Isaby

Tory GLA member attacks G20 protestor for aiming to make money from her alleged mistreatment by police

Often controversial (see here and here), London Assembly Brian Coleman has today said, according to a press release from London Assembly Conservatives, that he believes that the woman struck by a policeman during G20 protests outside the Bank of England is looking to make a “quick buck”.

Newspapers are reporting that Nicola Fisher has hired publicist Max Clifford with the aim of selling her story for £50,000.  Mr Coleman said:

“This is utterly disgraceful profiteering from someone who was on an anti-capitalist demonstration. Nicky Fisher turned up to this protest, which everyone said could be violent. She put herself in this situation and lo, she was hit. It’s like going gambling and then complaining that you’ve lost money. All right-thinking people will have little sympathy for her. The police were dealing with a very serious situation caused by some very silly people.”

On Platform today, David Davies MP defends the police's handling of the G20 demonstrations.  On CentreRight yesterday Graeme Archer said that the G20 incidents made the case for thorough reform of the police.

Tim Montgomerie

Gordon Brown says sorry for Smeargate

I wondered this morning whether the words "I am sorry" would pass Gordon Brown's lips over the emails sent by his (now former) chief strategist Damian McBride, which planned to smear a number of Conservative politicians.

Well, a good five days after the Conservatives first demanded such an apology, it appears to have been forthcoming.

The BBC is reporting that during his visit to Glasgow, where the Cabinet is meeting, the Prime Minister has said:

"I am sorry about what happened... I wrote to those people affected, expressing deep regret, and the person responsible went immediately... I take full responsibility for what happened. That's why the person who was responsible went."

1.45pm Update:

Nadine Dorries - one of the MPs who was subject of the smear emails - is still unsatisfied. PoliticsHome records what she told Sky News:

Damian Green will NOT face charges over Home Office leaks

The Director of Public Prosecutions has just announced that Damian Green will not be prosecuted for aiding and abetting misconduct in public office.

The DPP said that the information handled was not secret, did not relate to national security, military or policing matters and that it was not highly confidential. He even added that some of the information leaked touched on "legitimate matters of public interest".

The Telegraph has published the DPP's decision in full.

Great news for democracy and a tremendous relief to Damian and his family.

George Osborne announces ten new green policy initiatives

Speaking at the Green Building Council this morning, the George Osborne has called on the Government to adopt ten “green” policies in next week’s budget which would make Britain's economy "greener and more productive".

Mr Osborne says that none of the following would add to government debt and the explanations with each policy are based on the information put out by CCHQ:

1. A £6,500 energy efficiency entitlement for every home in Britain

Fit every home with up to £6,500 of energy efficiency improvements, with the cost being repaid through savings in fuel bills, delivering immediate reductions in gas and electricity bills of around £160 per year for families across the country.

2. Fund at least three Carbon Capture and Storage projects

Use part of the receipts from the EU Emissions trading Scheme to fund the installation of Carbon Capture and Storage equipment and pipeline networks for at least 5GW of new coal-fired power plant.

3. Smart Meters

Bring forward the roll out of innovative new technology smart meters into every home to give homes and businesses more control over their energy consumption and help reduce bills.

Does the Government now have "a moral duty" to cut public expenditure?

The hare has been set running on the above question today not by a Conservative politician, but by a Labour MP who is pressing for such cuts.

In the latest ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, no fewer than 94% took the view that significant cuts in public expenditure would be necessary to restore order to the public finances.

Today that position is eloquently echoed by the man who is most Tories' favourite Labour pin-up, Frank Field - the former welfare reform minister who was told to "think the unthinkable" by Tony Blair and then prevented from doing just that.  

In advance of the Budget next Wednesday, he has written in The Spectator a devastating critique of the economic problems stored up by the Labour Government, which is worth quoting extensively here, not least because most Conservatives will find it almost impossible to disagree with him:

"It is difficult to overdramatise the danger that is engulfing our country. In some ways our position is more precarious than in 1940 when we stood alone against the Nazi tyranny. The danger can be stated easily enough. Far from building up reserves during the latter stages of the boom, the government went on a borrowing spree..."

Having effectively echoed the Tory charge that the Government "didn't fix the roof while the sun was shining", Mr Field writes that last November's Pre-Budget Report estimation of proposed borrowing of £78 billion is now guesstimated by the Government at somewhere between £180 billion and £190 billion for each of the next two years (today's Times reckons £175 billion):