Sunday Telegraph poll has Tories 17% ahead in first post-McBride survey

An opinion poll for The Sunday Telegraph puts the Tories 17% ahead.  That's an increased lead of 4% and would give the Conservatives a parliamentary majority of  114 according to UK Polling Report's Swing Calculator.

The poll is by a new entity called Marketing Sciences Ltd.  I understand that it is a sister company to ICM.  The changes in the graphic are therefore compared with the most recent ICM poll.  I have not put the numbers into the ConHome Poll of Polls, however, because I don't know if Marketing Sciences will be polling regularly.

Other poll findings:

• Voters think that Brown is MORE likely to resort to spin than Tony Blair.  Quite something!
• 36% of voters blame Brown for presiding over a dirty tricks culture in Downing Street but a larger proportion, 50% do not.
• 75% of voters say dumping Brown will make no difference to how they would vote.  Of those for whom it might make a difference 13% say it would make them less likely to support Labour and 11% more likely.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Michael]

Is it good for us?

[joshuwahwah]

I think after last weeks shenanigan if your not 20 points ahead you need to start kicking someones backside at the top of your party.

[Tim Montgomerie]

@Michael,

Sorry but I'm subject to an embargo so am revealing nothing!

[joshuwahwah]

I think after last weeks shenanigan if your not 20 points ahead you need to start kicking someones backside at the top of your party.

[MB]

The Damian Green affair didn't move the polls towards the Tories so I see no reason why this will.

[ToryBlog.com -]

Didn't I overhear you saying that you would be in deep trouble if you let it slip out that Labour had fallen to 3rd place? ;-)

[Gary]

Lets wait and see.

[Michael]

Yeah but with the DG thing, the government had a defence. With the smears it was directly linked to them. Also people who only heard brief segments of the DG affair might have come away with the mistaken impression he did something wrong.

[pp]

My money would be on labour taking a huge tumble -- the exposure of browns sleeze reaches the places that other campaigns cannot reach - it really has turned the stomachs of many of even the most tribal labourites....

If labour have taken a hit - it is all credit to brown (with Guidos assistance) - may be it would have been better closer to an election... but there you go...

I so hope that the front bench are 'clean' -- a few drinks, drugs, and cross dressing is relatively acceptable youthful behaviour, and doesn't matter - but any abuse of public position/office...

[joshuwahwah]

I am guessing Labour will drop to 24% with the Tories taking grand advantage.

[Domesday]

Shame this polling has been before Alice Mahon's resignation from the party today. I suspect an old faithful from the heart of Labour territory resigning from the party will have more resonance amongst the Labour party than shenanigans at 10 Downing Street.

The Labour party is the most tribal of all parties: it doesn't matter about sleaze, but when the tribe breaks apart...

[Chris Burley]

For what its worth I don't think the smear-gate story will change the opinion polls very much, people are more worried about the economy and other stuff not Westminister scandals.

[Will S]

This should be a good one. Can't wait.

[RichardJ]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's not much change to be honest. I'd love to be proven wrong but I suspect the smeargate thing is likely to have been of less interest to the public than, say, the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Fingers crossed that I'm wrong.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I really don't think there'll be that much movement. My suspicion is that people may have seen the McBride affair as a Westminster Village issue.

There will be a small increase in our advantage as the impression builds that Labour are starting to look a bit clapped out, like we did in 1996/7.

[Ben Surtees]

I'm not sure that the events of the last week will make much difference to most folks other than further poison their perception of Brown, Labour and Politics in General - in that order.

How much will that help, I'm not sure... I'd expect a modest improvement thanks to a decline in the liklihood of Labour supporters to vote - but we'll see, didnt detect any huge movment this weekend out canvassing that wasnt there last weekend or the weekend before... but as I say, we'll see and I'll be delighted if there's a big positive move.

[Peter Buss]

May be wrong but don't think much change is to be expected. Can't see Labour increasing its share but sadly there's enough of their core vote who will even believe the smears to be true and will stick with Labour or else go Lib Dem. But then again I may be proved hopelessly wrong.

[James Burdett]

Part revealed in the following article.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/iainmartin/5179141/Our-next-government-needs-a-new-way-of-governing.html

[Peter Harrison]

There's an article on the Telegraph site by Iain Martin already saying Con 43, Lab 26. That's -1 for Con, -5 for Lab compared to the last ICM poll.

[Martin Coxall]

CON MAJ 120.

We should be at least on CON MAJ 200.

Why aren't we further ahead?

[The Bishop Swine]

I don't think Labours slip will show yet but I do expect a few points to go to the liberal, from Labour. Labour deserves what is happening it has taken the working class for granted. The working man was the bedrock of parties like Buf, they should recall that important strand of traditional fascists and have in mind that they are marked men and women, one and all. Of course in this day and age the worse they will get is a slap with a lettuce or maybe a coloured custard green is a good colour. Britain has locked up far better men than Brown.They have made the cardinal mistake of believing their morals, crass and weak though they are, are not repugnant to the man of the street. This class is free to abandon Labour, and will.
We want leaders who we can admire, men of substance and stature.We want Aristocratic
Rulers.The petty middle class needs to be trimmed back to a sensible size.The green future is the old recent past.In short we demand a return to rule by right of passage and of church. GSTQ

[David (One of many)]

These numbers about right. The news has been all bad for Labour, but at the same time we've actually been almost entirely out of it - with the exception of Dorries making her rounds. I also suspect that the 'they're all at it' thing does resonate with some people. Lib Dems benefit from being on the fringe, despite them actually being dreadful when it comes to playing dirty.

Come the budget, I suspect we'll see the Tory numbers go up again as a result of the big media coverage our angle will most likely get.

[Alex]

Not too bad, considering this is a left-leaning pollster

[Morus]

Numbers look about right, but who are Marketing Sciences Ltd?

How are they related to ICM? Does ICM's membership of the BPC mean that this new pollster will abide by BPC rules about transparency of data?

There's been a rash of voodoo polls from junk pollsters in the last year. I half-suspect this is another one of them - another fairly crude cost-cutting measure by the Sunday Telegraph

[MG]

I think we are doing better but naturally a bit cautious of a new polling outfit even if they are part of ICM.

[YMT]

will wait for YouGov

[Richard]

There is no denying it a good poll but,those Labour votes have gone to the Liberals,they won't do that in a GE in my opinion.

I have been saying for a couple of months,the economy is not as bad as it was being portrayed,now the OECD has done a 360 degree turn,'BRITAIN WILL SUFFER A SHALLOW RECESSION & FAIR BETTER THAN OTHER DEVELOPED ECONOMIES'it published recently.

We have to get the message across that we are not talking the economy down,we could end up with egg on our faces.

We should now concentrate on coming up with real public service savings,it is time to show we can make hard decisions,afterall we hope to be the Government.

And more than ever,concentrate on the taxes that will come under another labour Government,and make them claer and concise,so the man in the street can understand them.

Personally i know it won't happen,if we promised a cut on fuel duty,we would have the massive public support,petrol will be over £1 litre again soon.

HOW MUCH DO WE WANT GOVERNMENT?

[Tim Montgomerie]

@Morus

Over on his UK Polling Report blog, Anthony Wells writes: "The Sunday Telegraph has a Marketing Sciences Ltd poll. My understanding is this is a sister company to ICM, with the poll presumably done by the sister brand because otherwise it would clash with ICM’s contractual obligations to the Guardian. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday."

I echo that.

[Realpolitik]

All the lost Labour votes have gone to the Liberals, not to us.

[Richard]

There should be another poll coming out tonight also.

[joshuwahwah]

Well done for the lead. But the real story is that you have lost support, how? This poll just goes to affirm that it is the Government that is unpopular and not the Tories being popular, in terms of this poll that is. I am shocked. I thought it would be shocking for Labour but that 4% is easily clawed back. Strange.

[pp]

Labour are shedding core support - and have no way of actually doing anything to bring it back.

They can only hope that when it comes to the day, a bit of blind faith will get a few extra crosses.

In truth the amount they lose by should not be their main concern. It is how long their recover it going to take -- going into the next election with brown may mean a smaller loss (maybe), but it will set back any recovery by a parliament. Their recovery will not start 'till the election following brown going. His fear of elections (if you ain't in it you can't lose it) may work to labours advantage here if he bails before the election. But it would also be an acknowledgement that Brown never really had, expected or was bothered about having a mandate - and the senior labourites would not be forgiven for making this truth undeniable.

[Jonathan]

Well done, good result. Lets hope we reached the mid 20's again after the budget.

And to all those saying that we should be doing better - the public in general are critical when they want to be, and just turn anti-politian...

Not bad for us really.

[The court of Public Opinion]

SEE GUIDO'S SITE

http://www.order-order.com/2009/04/maguire-helped-plan-red-rag/#comment-41047

MAGUIRE HELPED PLAN RED RAG!!!

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

Labour is DOOMED. Please refer to:-

1) The BPIX poll.

2) Fresh allegations on Guido Fawkes site.

[HYUFD]

The Bishop Swine - As we are now a majority middle class country, I don't think we will be returning to rule by the aristocracy any time soon. Although Cameron is the most aristocratic potential PM we have had since Douglas - Home.

[joshuwahwah]

Hi Freddy,

Ray Collins totally denies any allegations in the *coughs* News Of The World and if you read your fellow posters comments, BPIX is a nothing poll. It is not as credible as comres in which you lot always slag off and say is a rogue.

At the end of the day in the real poll tonight you have done well and I have said well done for that. However you lost support in that poll and the Labour vote went to the Lib Dems. I guarantee you at a general election that Lib Dem voters will vote tactically if they think that the Tories will come to power.

Once again, well done and enjoy it.

[Ross Warren]

The Bishop Swine is a minority of one, a literary creation, in the Alf Garnet mold.
Prone to occasional sensible outbursts and equally prone to flights of fancy. Ignore him I do!

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

Even Jack Stone doesn't support Labour. I never thought I'd see the day, but I had to agree with his remarks on Alice Mahon's resignation from the Labour party.

Let's face it Labour is DOOMED! Not long before the polls show Labour in 3rd place!

[Ad]

Joshuwahwah bit of a sweeping statement to say all Lib Dem voters will vote tactically against the Tories there is absolutley no guarantee of that at all. Maybe the majority will but liberalism is a very big school, i would be suprised to see economic liberals cheering what is inevitably going to be a growing state, growing tax take and a long term move towards stronger socialism and further away from capitalism.

With regards to the poll a 17% lead would of course be better if support was not lost. It does seem in this instance that the lib dem vote has switched to Labour. However the Tories' policy platform is still very narrow and sweeping statements cannot be made until the cards are on the table as it were.

[joshuwahwah]

Freddy,

Your getting a tad too excited. Polls change all the time. Do you actually think that there is not going to be another Tory scandal between now and the election? very naive if you do. The polls will narrow before the election. Just look carefully at the poll and you will see that you have actually lost support (1%) since the last and after a week when you have been in the press solid with a disgusting sleaze scandal.

AD,

Quite clearly I don't think that all Lib Dem supporters will turn to Labour, that would be ludicrous. However, I know from experience of elections since 1995 that the Dims tend to vote tactically if they think the Tories will get into power. It happens all the time.

[Ad]

joshuwahwah I understand what you are saying I wasn't trying to sound patronising i thought u were making a rather sweeping statement.

I do think though with the ideological position of the Tories changing under Cameron as well as what is going to be a big swing to the left for Labour things may not be as predictable this time around.

[joshuwahwah]

Ad,

Maybe your right. And you weren't patronising me at all, it was a very general statement. I have been up since 4am and getting a tad tired.

I am stumped to be honest with the next general election. Anything and I mean anything could happen between now and then. It looks like it is nailed on for Mr. Cameron but this was said last year and the polls dwindled for him. I really do not think that swing voters have made up their mind yet and events at the time of the election will determine its outcome.

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

-1% is within sampling error.

Our strength stands at 43% which is about as high as it is going to get.

Labour's strength is at 26%. I remember when we were on 22% - it took us years to recover. The Lib Dems are only 5% behind Labour - I reckon they'll overtake Labour before too long. Once that happens Labour are DOOMED.

[DJT]

I'm not sure why Josu...(cant be bothered writing the rest) finds it too difficult to read that the graphic at the top does not show a like for like comparison as this is only a sister poll to the ICM poll he is refering too.

The graphic is just for a general reference...therefore support is NOT down and only a plonker would argue over 1% anyway as no poll claims to be accurate to that level. They have a 2% margain of error at least.

The fact of the matter is this... in 12 months and 2 weeks time the public are not going to wander into a polling station and say yes more of this please!

Governments usually lose elections, oppositions dont win them too often!

[joshuwahwah]

Fair enough Freddy. I don't think that will happen but feel free to give me grief if it does. Right I am off to get some shut eye. Well done again. Goodnight.

[Richard]

I actually think what is more interesting is the other question asked by the polling company that did this poll.

It showed that Jack Straw is far & away the choice of Labour voters to replace Brown.

The Left of the Labour Party is always saying the Party is not left-wing enough that is why they are behind in the polls,this shows that Straw,a arch Blairite is the front-runner.

I think this should be exploited to the maximum,Labour are a split Party,even the Labour vote is sick of high borrowing high tax.

very interesting indeed.

[Victor M]

Richard @ 00.20. I am one of those who say that the Tories are not nearly right wing enough and would be out of sight of the 'others' if they were. I feel that only now is the penny slowly dropping with the public at large. You can't never beat those constituencies where 'if you pin a red rosette on a donkey's ar*e' - they vote for him' syndrome. These people are not worth aiming any propaganda at. But I do wish there were more real Conservatives in the shadow line-up, but the current incumbents will say there look at the latest figures "we told you so"- no I'm sorry I do not believe in the heir to Blair thinking but you just can't win can you?

[JS]

The really worrying factor in this poll is that the Tories have not increased their vote at all - in fact we have lost 1 per cent. [email protected] is right. The electorate does not want a pale pink copy of Blair, which is currently on offer by the present leadership, but rather real Conservative policies- greater personal freedom, less taxation, more encouragement to the wealth creators, far less Government interference in, and less public spending on, things which are far better left to the personal choice of the population to decide where they spend their own money etc., etc. After the week which Gordon Brown's useless, hapless and incompetent crew have had the Conservative share should have been nearer 60% than 40.

[Ross Warren]

"Is it good for us?"

Posted by: Michael

Well it appears to be quite good but shows that the easy votes have already been won. With Labour having such a bad week, we might have hoped for an increase in support. Whilst a 1% fall is within the margin of error, the real winners this week have to be the Liberals. It seems that some people are taken in by Nutty Nick and his simplistic, tax the rich policies. So it seems that we have a fight on two fronts and we really do have to start telling the public the truth about Nasty Nutty Nick and his rotten tax increases. (which will not start and end with robbing the rich)

"The electorate does not want a pale pink copy of Blair, which is currently on offer by the present leadership, but rather real Conservative policies- greater personal freedom, less taxation, more encouragement to the wealth creators, far less Government interference in, and less public spending on, things which are far better left to the personal choice of the population to decide where they spend their own money etc., etc. "

That's the spirit, we don't want our nice Dave trying to out pink Nutty Nick and Grubby Brown. No we want polices that will get us out of debt not further into it.

[HYUFD]

Ross Warren - There is a big difference between Nick Clegg and Charles Kennedy. Kennedy was a social democrat, Clegg is a classical liberal. He has abandoned the 50p top rate and is offering more choice in public services, the lib dems are no longer the party of 'tax the rich', although Brown/Darling Labour is moving to occupy that ground.

[joshuwahwah]

At 22:26 last night I posted this to Freddy

'Do you actually think that there is not going to be another Tory scandal between now and the election? very naive if you do.'

And today on this very site I see a link to the Sunday Mirror with a Tory scandal starting to brew

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/latest/2009/04/18/tory-scandal-vice-madam-to-name-four-top-tories-in-tell-all-book-115875-21288361/

Now before you start going on about this being in the Sunday Mirror. I did actually post a link to this story from 2005 that appeared in the Daily Mail http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-365547/Cameron-campaign-chief-cocaine-pictures.html

So my question is this. Do the people who she is going to name come forward now and get this out in the open? Yes it will cause some embarrassment but it will be forgotten by the next GE or do they leave it, let it be revealed, try and sue and end up doing an Archer and Aitkin? I am interested to see how Mr. Cameron will deal with this. If he is strong and gets rid straight away then he will be seen as strong.

[Super Blue]

It looks as if the Sunday Mirror is falling for the Draper-McBride-Balls-Whelan-Collins smears .......... but probably didn't need much persuading!

[Sally Roberts]

The Mail story is very old - from 2005 and it looks as if this is a re-hash of it.

Stories like this tend to appear in the less salubrious parts of the media in the run-up to every Election. I seem to remember a few years ago a woman who rejoiced in the name of "Miss Whiplash" planting rumours in the press that she had, shall we say, high-profile clients. It all came to naught of course.

[joshuwahwah]

Hi Sally,

The difference this time is that it is going to appear in a book. I will await the outcome of the book before passing judgment.

[Sally Roberts]

Hi Joshuwahwah! Aren't you going to register on this site with, perhaps, a nice picture (the Red Flag perhaps?) ;-)

Well, I too will await the outcome - one of us is bound to be right!

[joshuwahwah]

hahahah The Red flag. I will register with a picture of myself at some point. You can put it on the mantle piece to keep the kids away from the fire hehe.

[Sally Roberts]

Sadly no kids, joshuwahwah but it would certainly keep ME away from the fire - hehe indeed! ;-)

[Steve Foley]

Interesting to see that the reptiles on the Mirror have stuck their hands down the toilet pan and come up with a whore who it is alleged had leading Tories as her clients. How desperate can they get!

I am reminded of the incident said to have occurred when Franklin D Roosevelt died towards the end of WW2. Dr Goebbels reported this news to Hitler and reputedly said "The Tsarina is dead" an allusion to an event in the Seven Years War when the then Tsarina Elizabeth who was at war with Prussia died and her successor Tsar Peter III was pro Frederick the Great and signed a peace treaty with Prussia. Goebbels thought falsely that the new President Harry Truman would be more favourable to Germany but in the event he was an even stauncher supporter of Unconditional Surrender not only to the USA and UK but to the Russians as well.

Likewise The Mirror, on behalf of its Labour Party friends, is whistling in the dark. If there was really any mileage in this story I am sure it would have been all over the front pages by now.

[joshuwahwah]

'Interesting to see that the reptiles on the Mirror have stuck their hands down the toilet pan and come up with a whore who it is alleged had leading Tories as her clients. How desperate can they get!'

In the public interest sir. AND you will see that the Daily Mail ran this, albeit in 2005. It was alleged at the time that it was an insider that had leaked the story to try and hinder Mr Cameron's election campaign. It was also accompanied by a photograph with Mr. Osborne and this girl and a line of white powder that she said was cocaine. The press will wait until the book is published, that's when it will be on the front of all the newspapers, whether it be true or not. That is why I asked earlier if the people concerned should say sorry or admit it now then once te book does come out the sting will have been taken out of its tail.

Does anyone know when it is due to be published?

[Steve Foley]

2005??????!!!!!!!

You'll be telling me next that Queen Anne is dead?

Just think of all the momentous events which have occurred since 2005.

They'll have to be better than that!

[joshuwahwah]

I would publish the photograph but would probably be banned.

[Ross Warren]

"Ross Warren - There is a big difference between Nick Clegg and Charles Kennedy. Kennedy was a social democrat, Clegg is a classical liberal. He has abandoned the 50p top rate and is offering more choice in public services, the lib dems are no longer the party of 'tax the rich', although Brown/Darling Labour is moving to occupy that ground."

Well for start with one is sober. "the lib dems are no longer the party of 'tax the rich'" I can only go on what the man says and my impression is that he is more than willing to raise Tax's. To be honest there was a time when I was more open to the Liberals and their message, but that was long before Charles Kennedy indeed even before Jeremy Thorpe. I find them in general to be more out of touch with the rough end of life than even the Tory's most of who know what a bully is. Liberals tend, and I generalise, so please forgive me, to be Graduate educated Idealists, who despite every indicator to the opposite, embrace Elitism wholeheartedly. The Liberal by definition want a slackness of standards and a watering down of morals. They would allow more I grant you. I favour a solid framework with clear boundaries. Liberals are not bad people, indeed even Labour people are not 100% bad persons, but they are lacking a structure of beliefs. This is why they are so dishonest at hustings. They seem willing to bend the rules far more than I would encourage our members to. Despite not being in power they are comfortable, which is a great shame. Nutty Nick is still a very second rate stand-up and lacks the stature that our man clearly has. I tend to believe that Eton school has not birthed a dud. This nation needs something very much more liberating than a liberal government. We the Nation need what only a good Tory Government can give and frankly it will be uncomfortable and it will be Harsh, but it is my intention to ensure that it is fair. As it is Tax's are set to rise for the rich and by quite a bit. The Tory's will not spell that out but I will. The US and the UK (because that was the ventures name)are the two worst economies. The US of A may yet fall apart due to its indebtedness. We must get our books straight (that is the bottom line) Ken has indicated that we are to plan to be getting out of debt inside years. The clever answer is the obvious one, we must either produce more or pay more tax. The more Enterprise we can encourage the less painful this process will be. Our emphasis must be on creating a climate in which almost everyone is a trader. If a man has an intrest in music and becomes unemployed doesn't he have a duty to make some money on the back of his intrest. He can set up an ebay site and when his income is greater than a set amount that money will of course come off his benefit. He can enter the market. Isn't this at least a path to look into? Sorry I got off the subject of the Liberals. I don't think they have the right answers Elites need a subservient and compliant population. So they are as into dependence's big time. Hence the wholehearted wine bibbin.Only a right wing government can liberate everyman. Labour and Liberals both have a vestige intrest in holding down the people. Conservatives welcome the self ignited individual. They will trade with any-man.Liberals are a cosy in group...this nothing remotely cosy about the Conservative party.

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

Sorry! Just got back!

As far as I can see neither BBC, nor ITN are using the story in the Mirror - I wonder why? My hunch is that the story in the Mirror first appeared in 2005, in another newspaper!

[A. Headhunter]

Atlee devalued, Wilson Devalued, Brown devalued. Atlee arguably had no choice following the war but after the present collossal meltdown in finacial and economic markets I find it surprising - no shocking - that 26% of voters would vote for this shower. they must be the ones who left school without being able to read and write, which is presumably what Bliar had in mind when the said 'Education' three times.