New Ipsos Mori poll puts Tory lead at 13%

A new poll from Ipsos Mori has just been released, putting the parties on the following standings:

Comparisons are with last month's equivalent poll.

The seemingly sudden surge in Lib Dem support is remarkable. Does it perhaps suggest that they have gained by keeping out of the claim and counter claims over "Smeargate"? Or is it a rogue poll?

Jonathan Isaby

Comments

[James Burdett]

Mike Smithson over at PB.com suggests that it is down to certainty to vote.

[Sally Roberts]

Oh Dear - Gloy Plopwell is going to be "treemendously excrited" over this!

[James Burdett]

Sally, I would point out that if those were the figures in the election we would likely win by about 40-50.

[Pink Tory]

The LibDems were artificially low in last month's Mori poll. Mori polls are always volatile.

[Paul D]

I don't think it's a roge LD level, 14% for them last month seemed low, this seems at the high end of expectations for them. I suspect they have gained some ground (Lab->Lib switchers) but that the 14% was rogue so the increase is a little smaller than it seems

[Tom]

If these figures are correct then this is a 14 point Tory lead, which actually translates to a Con Majority of 66, if there were a uniform swing. However, there will not be a uniform swing.

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

So the ICM poll was an outlier then!

My opinion is that Labour is DOOMED - they will soon be pushed into 3rd place by the Lib Dems who are only 6% behind.

I am not at all surprised that your core vote is collapsing. If I was a Labour supporter, I'd be outraged at what McBride did - then of course there are the rows over the selection of two PPCs!

[Neil Evans]

The most recent Mori polling has been awkward to the point of just feeling wrong - this surge for the Liberals doesn't tally with anything you hear on the street, or in other demographic polls, so I'm not quite sure what they're playing at - Labour are certainly lower that 28% right now, that's without question.

[Wayne]

I think that this poll is probably about where we are at this time. It will be interesting when we see polls after the budget.

I expect Comres to report
Con 44
Lab 27
Lib 23

[Sally Roberts]

James Burdett - Don't worry, I am not seriously disturbed by this Poll (in fact I think it ties in well with what I and people I know are getting)- I merely point out that our Little Orange Friend is going to be bouncing up and down with delight in his own inimitable fashion!

[JS]

As in all the recent polls the really worrying aspect is that, despite the complete disarray and patently evident incompetence of the Government, there is no real increase in the Conservative support. The drop in the Labour vote is to be welcomed and expected but with things as they are a real opposition would be at least around or over the 60% level and rising fast. None of these polls can give any great confidence to a Conservative supporter that all is well. This is a clear reflection on the present weak and timid leadership and the lack of any real traditional Conservative policies.
For the opposition to just sit back and wait for an election victory - which they all seem to be doing - will never succeed. They need to galvanize the country with their loathing of Gordon Brown, their distrust in his Government and their contempt for his methods. In short they need to start acting as a proper opposition and an alternative Government ready, eager and competent to take over as soon as possible. All the current pussyfooting around should stop immediately.

[Freddy]

@Wayne

When do Com Res report?

[David]

This is better. I don't think our lead is as high as 19%, but nor do I think it's as low as 10%. The average of the last 5 polls is 14%, so this seems about right.

[Ross Warren]

This confirms that we are retaining a lead of a least 10% and quite possible far more.
Nutty Nick did have a very good week indeed, but we all know that come the election people will (in many cases) abandon their flirtation with the liberals to vote for a party that can win. As it is we are still on target for a very comfortable win indeed.

[John Strafford]

Research in the United States has shown that if you embark on negative personal attacks, both sides suffer to the detriment of third parties. This poll just confirms that point.

[joshuwahwah]

Freddy,

Your naivety id frightening but your commitment to the Tory cause in=s honorable.

In a week where Labour were battered in the press and your party had wall to wall coverage of a sleaze story against the Government, you actually lose support in two REAL polls.

The 8% surge from the Libs is indicative of Labour voters changing over to the Libs. As I have said before, in a General election most of these voters will come back to Labour if they think the Tories will take charge.

I congratulated you with the two very rogue polls at the weekend and I will continue to do so if you keep having good polls. But the way the polls are at the minute point toward a hung Parliament.

[James Burdett]

Ross - I wouldn't suggest that it will be very comfortable. I would say the baseline is probably 40:30:20:10. That would potentially leave us short by a couple of seats if the distribution was particularly unfavourable. Now looking ahead a lot of the news could be bad for the government. However we shouldn't assume that voters fleeing the governments cause will flock to ours automatically. This poll shows that there are others about who will get their votes if we don't court them.

Now a shift from Labour to the Lib Dems will prove helpful up to a certain level and then the net effect could be unhelpful. I would also point out that the Lib Dems tend to trend upwards during a campaign as journalists take a bit more notice. That might be mitigated to some extent if the campaign turns into a Red/Blue slugfest. The election isn't won until we have 326 seats declared for us on election night.

[christina Speight]

The fact that the LibDems have jumped 8 points is remartable but even more remarkable is the fact that last time they were therefore only on 14% - way below every other poll. So before everyone gets all steamed up look at those absolute figures - they are not wildly different from other polls!! (eg today's Guardian ICM poll shows a 1% difference for the Tories , 2% for Labour and 3% for the LibDems - ALL well within normal margins of error)

And UK polling report puts this poll as giving a Tory lead of 38/

[Patsy Sergeant]

JS @ 10.53 I think you are being unduly pessimistic! What DO you expect the Opposition MP's to actually DO? Should they be standing up and haranguing Brown - in your dreams, why do you think that Gorbals Mick was put in place - and I have to say he has done his 'job' well since he has been in office! Or should the Opposition be marching into Parliament 'all guns blazing', like a Tarantino movie? Or of course you may mean that they should produce amazing policies! Well we know what this government regards that idea for!

I think that the LD's could well overtake, or at least level up to Labour over the next month or two (in the Polls). I would not think that this is necessarily too worrying to the Conservatives, provided their lead stayed at 10% and over.

Another thought is that I would not be surprised if some people when questioned by a Pollster, were less inclined to admit voting Conservative, than they would be to voting Labour or LD!

[Peter Buss]

Smeargate was never going to play well for Labour and that is why I mistrusted last nights ICM Poll which showed them as holding steady. Unlike some on here I never thought it would play well for us either.These were after all smears and sadly there are enough people who might believe them and it would have reminded people why they chucked us out big time in 97. Certainly I could never understand the reasoning which said that we would benefit from them. I think the Party needs to shut up about Smeargate now.Last week it completely blotted out a brilliant speech by Osboune, plus two hugely important policy announcements on right to move and green issues - both giving a vision of where Cameron would take the country i.e good positive looks to the future. I masy be in a minority here but I don't think we should be going hugely negative in our style and tone. The Country needs to here how WE would make a difference - by and large it has made its mind up about Brown and rants against him will turn them off big time. Withering criticism "yes" - constructive opposition "yes" but (and dare I even think it !!) Hannan style rants may play well to the core vote but will leave the electorate cold.

[JS]

[email protected] - I hope I am being unduly pessismistic but can see no reason for real confidence I'm afraid. 'Should they be standing up and haranguing Brown -' Yes of course - that's just what Labour did to us during the Major Government's last years - and they did it non-stop relentlessly !

[JS]

[email protected] - please excuse my typo !! Sorry !

[Wayne]

What it needs from now on in, is less moaning about the economy, smear camapaigns etc from our leaders and more attacks on Brown together with a time for change theme, with at least some outline ideas of why its time for change. Cameron Osborne, Grayling and Hague are the best tories to do this. So come on get out those soap boxes and start a nationwide tour now !! The election campaign needs to start early as in America. In my opinion we need to be on circa 45% with a continuing lead of 15/16% to alloow for any potential Labour clawback. It's only a couple of percent from where we are now! Lets get going ?

[MG]

This confirms my views expressed here and on Political Betting that the rogues were actually the polls over the weekend. I think 13% sounds right from feedback and consideration of the situation. Some of the Labour voters are less likely to vote on the back of Greengate and Smeargate hence the drop there and the increase in Lib Dem but it has not heped us much if at all. If you stop and think about it sensibly that is logical. We are nicely ahead but not sealed the deal but given that Cameron has been on the media less, the budegt has not yet been digested, and we have not set out our stall yet, this all makes sense.

[Patsy Sergeant]

But as I said JS, 'they' would never get the opportunity to 'stand up and harangue Brown', Labour well and truly sewed Parliament up, when it appointed (against the unwritten rules) Gorbals Mick as Speaker. He may not be the brightest brick, or on the other hand the thickest, and he probably knew zilch about job specification (as it used to be!!), but he is a loyal Labour suporter and therefore more than happy to do as instructed.

I think the evidence is probably in Hansard, to show well Mr. Speaker Martin did his masters bidding, first Blair and then Brown. Therefore, as I said before David Cameron, in particular, is not permitted to make a really comprehensive indictment of Brown and his policies.

[Norm Brainer]

well.. we've seen 'others' get bigger in the other polls, which is understandable as although labour are bad we've not seen too much action from conservatives, until this week, with DC now calling for the GE to be 4th June I think that'll win back support.

[David Belchamber]

Lib Dems are obviously rather slippery; their poll ratings veer up and down without too much to support the movements, though I for one would be delighted if they gained so much support from Labour that the lib Dems moved into second place.

At some stage the Conservatives will have to come out into the open with a coherent and costed manifesto. At that stage there should be a significant increase in support for the party.

At the moment though we would do well to remember that, in all recent polls, up to 60% of the electorate either couldn't care less or would vote against the Conservatives.

That is why I would offer a referendum on staying in or leaving the EU, so that the party's policy would be determined by the majority of voters, not just the government.

[Bexie]

Smeargate is going to carry on running for a while yet. Guido has some other scalps in his sights and will most likely release more devastating copy for may day...

[Francis]

Maybe this has something to do with the LDs new tax policy ?

Making the first £10 000 of earnings tax free would make a lot of people better off.

[griswold]

These polls are not indicative of what will happen on polling day when minds become concentrated.

LibDems face a wipeout because many of their number will have to take the pragmatic view that a Cons Govt will do better for them personally than a Labour Govt.

I suggest Labour will also do worse than the polls suggest.

Con majority around 120.

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

No! I'm not naive, just plain cynical.

Why do you assume your ex supporters are going to return to the fold? Perhaps, like Alice Mahon, they've finally had enough! I say ENOUGH is ENOUGH - Brown is useless! - that's what I've been hearing for some time now.

Let's face it, all the promises of a new style of government when he took over from Bliar have proved to be rubbish - that is what the Red Rag episode proves.

Then there is the economy which he has controlled, first as chancellor, and then as PM since 1997. Till last October everything was going wonderfully - then suddenly, without any warning, BRITAIN IS BUST! I know what you are going to say, but I would say to you, that everything the American banks have been doing, the British banks have been doing too. Then there is the tripartite system of bank regulation which Brown set up in 1997 - it didn't work and banks had to be nationalised, or bailed out, as a result.

Labour supporters have got to wake up to the fact that most of us think that virtually everything this government has done has proved to be a disaster - and massive sums of government money have been FRITTERED as a result.

No! When the GE comes, whenever the GE comes, Labour will be swept from power into the dustbin of history, where they belong. I confidently predict that they may well be, not the second party, but the third, behind the LIb Dems!!!

Labour are DOOMED!!!!

[Malcolm Dunn]

I am quite happy with this. A Conservative majority of 50 would be fine (I agree with Francis Pym's assesment in 1983). The more interesting points of any poll are the more detailed questions on specific policy areas.I'll look forward to these being published.

[joshuwahwah]

Freddy,

'Let's face it, all the promises of a new style of government when he took over from Bliar have proved to be rubbish -' No more punch and Judy Politics, 'nuf said

'Then there is the economy which he has controlled, first as chancellor, and then as PM since 1997. Till last October everything was going wonderfully - then suddenly, without any warning, BRITAIN IS BUST! I know what you are going to say, but I would say to you, that everything the American banks have been doing, the British banks have been doing too. Then there is the tripartite system of bank regulation which Brown set up in 1997 - it didn't work and banks had to be nationalised, or bailed out, as a result.'

And what would Dave and George do exactly to help us out of the situation. The Tory party believes that a recession should run its course. This is not the way ahead. And talking down the economy does not help either.

'Labour supporters have got to wake up to the fact that most of us think that virtually everything this government has done has proved to be a disaster - and massive sums of government money have been FRITTERED as a result.'

Does that include the 110 new hospitals? the new schools? the new health care centres? the 88,000 new nurses? the 37,000 new Doctors? overall crime being down? Minimum wage which Mr. Cameron totally opposed?.......

I am not saying that this Labour Government is perfect, far from it. But the investment in public services has meant that we can now see a consultant no more than 18 weeks from seeing a GP, if we are suspected of having cancer we can see a specialist within 2 weeks, people with cancer now get free prescriptions....the list goes on. Yes there has been waste but our public services are improved beyond belief. Remember when we came to power in 1997 the NHS was dying and waiting lists were in years and not weeks.

[Dorothy Wilson]

Jos

It's just a pity NuLabour has bankrupted the country in the process. And if you think the NHS is so wonderful I could give you a long list of experiences of my friends and family that would suggest that things are not quite so rosy as you would suggest. However, at the moment I haven't got the time!

I would say though that we are currently in the position we were in at the end of the last Labour government - deeply in the red because of government over-spending and with a cupboard that is bare.

[joshuwahwah]

And conversely, I imagine there are more success stories than bad ones.

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

You've got to be kidding!

[Freddy]

What about Stafford General Hospital?

[Freddy]

Do you have an NHS dentist now? I don't thanks to your Leader!

[Freddy]

Educational standards are at rock bottom and school discipline is non existent.

[joshuwahwah]

'You've got to be kidding!' Not at all. Go on deny all those things I posted, go on I dare you to even try.

PS: Yes I do have an NHS dentist.

[Tim Montgomerie]

@Freddy,

Please try and put your thoughts into one comment and not four. And back to the topic please.

[JS]

[email protected] - I'm sorry for the delay in getting back. I take your point about the unfairness - deliberate or otherwise - of the present apology for a Speaker but surely in answer to this there are many places and opportunities for our side in which to launch sustained attacks against the Government other than just in the House.

[Steve Tierney]

@Joshuwahwah

I don't know why I respond to you. I can't help rising to the bait I guess.

>>'Let's face it, all the promises of a new style of government when he took over from Bliar have proved to be rubbish -' No more punch and Judy Politics, 'nuf said<<

Some of us like "punch and judy" politics. Touchy-Feely politics does nothing for me. If Judy is talking nonsense and running the country into the ground Mr.Punch is a welcome addition to the puppet show for me.

>>'Then there is the economy which he has controlled<<

Oh Come ON! Give it a rest. Brown hasn't "controlled" squat. He's "Meddled With". Not the same thing at all.

>>first as chancellor, and then as PM since 1997. Till last October everything was going wonderfully<<

If you call "buying everything on ever-more credit" 'going wonderfully', then yes. Otherwise... uh, no.

>>then suddenly, without any warning, BRITAIN IS BUST! <<

There were plenty of warnings. It was convenient and vote-winning to ignore them. But even were we to accept your premise that there was "no warning", having a safety net is the usual way to protect against disaster. Burning your safety net is the job of the village idiot.

>>And what would Dave and George do exactly to help us out of the situation.<<

We don't know because they haven't really told us. Which doesn't make everybody happy, I grant you. I'm content with "how could it possibly be worse?" for now. Because it really couldn't possibly be worse.

>>The Tory party believes that a recession should run its course. This is not the way ahead. And talking down the economy does not help either.<<

The usual gobbledegook, well done. The Conservatives don't feel the recession should 'run its course'. We just know what it is. A correction, after years of poor judgement. it will happen and we can help to make it gentler. But we know its not possible to "buy your way out". It's not monopoly. Its real economics. Attempts at a 'quick fix' will just keep making it worse, and worse, and worse.

>>Does that include the 110 new hospitals? the new schools? the new health care centres? the 88,000 new nurses? the 37,000 new Doctors?<<

I wonder if the many town's whose hospitals have closed down in favour of some place two towns away would agree? Or the schools who churn out dumbed-down results and kids who still can't read or add up well enough to get a job? I wonder if all those new nurses enjoy being unable to do their job because of targets and regulations and officials. I wonder if the people who keep dying of things they caught in those hospitals think you spent money wisely?

>>overall crime being down?<<

Give me a BREAK. We all know this for the fudged-figure, massaged-data LIE that it is. Crime being down? it's a joke.

>>Minimum wage which Mr. Cameron totally opposed?.......<<

Good riddance if it was gone. It cruelly prices some people out of a job entirely, while destroying our ability to compete and, most importantly, telling people what they are allowed to work for... a decision which should surely their OWN in a free society? if I want to work for a pound a day, who the hell are the government to tell me I'm not allowed to?

>>I am not saying that this Labour Government is perfect, far from it. <<

As distances go, this is a remarkably huge one. I'm not sure there are numbers big enough to measure it. Though our national debt comes close, figures-wise.

>>But the investment in public services has meant that we can now see a consultant no more than 18 weeks from seeing a GP<<

Only 18 weeks? That is good! You must be SO proud.

>>if we are suspected of having cancer we can see a specialist within 2 weeks, people with cancer now get free prescriptions....the list goes on.<<

The list doesn't really 'go on', now does it. It's not much of a list at all.

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

Millions of people don't have an NHS dentist.

Millions of people have had their pension ruined by Gordon Brown eliminating ACT

All the public sector building was done off balance sheet on PFI. By the way, educational standards have fallen.

Crime is going up - the government tried to doctor the knife crime figures. I have just been talking to a pub landlord in Wolverhampton who can't put locks on toilet doors because of the drugs menace - he doesn't beleive the crime statistics - he says things are getting much worse.

As for the extra doctors and nurses - the government have hired more clerical workers to run their absurd targets regime. Sometimes the NHS is not up to it and you have to go private. I've had to do that twice. The numbers of doctors and nurses has increased - so has the consultatnts pay - so what. Night time cover is really problematical thanks to the governments renegotiation of doctors contracts. And what about the Stafford Hospital case?

Prescription charges are greatly increased for those who aren't exempt.

What would DC and GO have done about it - well your lot knicked some of our poicies including the loan guarantee scheme.

[Dorothy Wilson]

"And conversely, I imagine there are more success stories than bad ones."

No Jos, there aren't. I could give you a long list of pretty appalling treatment given to my family and friends by the NHS.

And yes, I could deny most of the things you have posted but it seems your ideas are so rigid it is hardly worth bothering.

[Freddy]

@Dorothy Wilson

Quite agree with you!

[Freddy]

@Tim

Just seen your post - very sorry!

[Robson S]

I think it's Labour diehards who refuse to say they'd support Conservatives. That pollsters continue to find voters in the quotient of 26-32% who would publicly say they would still support this basketcase of a regime is quite surprising.

[R Anon]

I find some of your ciomments extremely offensive and immature. Ross says "Nutty Nick" - is this the level of Tory comment ?

[The Bishop Swine]

Double speak attack? The Drift to Liberals is mostly from Labour. Daft Liberal stereotypes are few in number becuse they are often quite open to any breeze that is blowing. The Liberals are still not placed to win the general election Nutty Nick is weird cross of left with right, a leader who would be lost in the mass of "Faces". In David C. we have a Guinea pig perhaps, but I suspect he will be an Iron Bar when needed.
This is a key Election our last chance to break free of the rush to the cliffs edge.
Only by becoming Great Britain again can we stamp our mark on this new century. I believe we are on the edge of our counter-revolution of epic proportions.

[The Bishop Swine]

Double speak attack? The Drift to Liberals is mostly from Labour. Daft Liberal stereotypes are few in number becuse they are often quite open to any breeze that is blowing. The Liberals are still not placed to win the general election Nutty Nick is weird cross of left with right, a leader who would be lost in the mass of "Faces". In David C. we have a Guinea pig perhaps, but I suspect he will be an Iron Bar when needed.
This is a key Election our last chance to break free of the rush to the cliffs edge.
Only by becoming Great Britain again can we stamp our mark on this new century. I believe we are on the edge of our counter-revolution of epic proportions.GSTQ

[christina Speight]

I thought people were jumping to conclusions and making bricks without straw.

The whole methodology of Ipsos-MORI is found to be utterly crazy (see UK Polling Report on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

In future I will ignore them and sduggest everyone else does too!

[Gloy Plopwell]

Fabulous news. We're on our way to a Lib Dem overall majority of 60-100 next year. Labour will be pushed aside first in a few months, then we can turn our fire on the Tories towards the end of this year and overtake them aswel.

we have stupendous momentum and are very excrited.
Have to get back to it, canvassing for the County county elections. We can win the European elections aswel.

Lyne Featherstone will be Chancellor in a years time.

[christina Speight]

I don't know, Gloy Plopwell at 19:43, why you are so excited when I have just told you the poll is useless, flawed, and shows no LibDem bounce at all.

But you're a bouncy sort of pseudo it seems, so you can't help it but when you land off the trampoline you'll find it's very hard and like Humpty Dumpty you'll get broken.

[Steve Tierney]

I rather like the name "gloy popwell".

It sounds like a character out of an old-fashioned children's story.

About the same level of reality involved, too.