ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Look out for a five pronged affirmation of "new Toryism"

When The Times described David Cameron's Conservative team as "women-free" I called it "unfair".  CCHQ went ballistic - seeing it as a dangerous attack on the modernisation agenda.  Team Cameron believes that the Tory leader couldn't have worked much harder to promote women into the shadow cabinet, into the House of Lords, into winnable Westminster seats and into the European Parliament.  Rules for selection of MEP candidates were actually changed so that women won higher rankings on regional lists even if they secured fewer votes from grassroots members*.

David Cameron wrote for The Times yesterday, setting out the progress that he's made in increasing representation of women.

In tomorrow's Times a huge number of Tory women - led by our adopted candidates - have written a letter defending David Cameron's record on female selection.

A member of the shadow cabinet told me to look out for five things in the next few months that Team Cameron would be emphasing to show that "new Toryism" is still alive and kicking - despite the "age of austerity":

1. Further promotion of women and ethnic minority Conservatives.
2. Outreach to gay rights groups (yesterday we learnt this).
3. More emphasis on environmental policies.  At Spring Forum in Cheltenham Greg Clark MP promised to make Britain the "Saudi Arabia of renewable energy."
4. Loud trumpeting of the fact that the NHS and international development are the top two Tory spending priorities.
5. More initiatives on social justice with a greater role for Iain Duncan Smith.

Tim Montgomerie

* Most women in top MEP slots received fewer votes than male rivals

David Cameron refuses to rule out scrapping/ delaying replacement for Trident

The Tory leader was speaking at his monthly press conference.

MORE SOON.

10.30am, Highlights from Mr Cameron's press conference

On Trident and defence cuts: Mr Cameron was asked on three occcasions about making savings from the defence budget.  He said that the Conservative Party supported all of the items currently in the 'forward defence programme' but given the scale of the budgetary crisis would not say if the aircraft carrier and Trident programmes were still affordable.  I'm not going to start ruling things in and out, he continued.  In the FT this morning David Davis had questioned the affordability of Trident.

On today's votes on expenses: Mr Cameron said the Conservative frontbench would abstain from the vote on second jobs disclosure because it is badly drafted, but added that he supports the principle of it.  PoliticsHome has more on this aspect.

On the 50p tax band: He agreed with Fraser Nelson that the 50p tax band was bad for Britain but declined to agree that it might lose the Treasury money.  He didn't know for sure, he said.  In a follow up question Fraser Nelson said that rich people would not change their plans and move abroad if they knew that the 50p band would be repealed by a Conservative government.  Mr Cameron said that he would not make a commitment now and that 50p would have to join a queue of other bad Labour measures that the Conservatives wished to repeal.

On working with Nick Clegg: He said that yesterday's victory on Gurkhas was hugely important and said that the Conservatives will work with the Liberal Democrats on issues of common interest, such as the environment, strengthening local govenment and opposing the surveillance state.

On Obama's first 100 days: He declined to comment on the American President's domestic policies but paid tribute to a "pretty successful" foreign policy.  He highlighted an end to torture, the promised closure of Gitmo, the re-engineering of strategy in Afghanistan and engagement with Iran.

On Margaret Thatcher's thirtieth anniversary: I asked if he would be marking the anniversary in any way and if he was studying how she prepared for government... As Mr Cameron started to answer a military band started playing and marched past the window... Mr Cameron credited Andy Coulson with arranging the march past!  After the journalists' laughter had died down he said that the best way of honouring Margaret Thatcher was to elect another Tory government.  Yes, he was studying the period - the things she got right but also the things that were wrong including the decision to honour Labour's public pay commitments from the Clegg Commission that delayed the necessary fiscal adjustment until 1981.

Tim Montgomerie

David Davis concludes that he cannot justify a wholesale upgrade of Trident, as he weighs into the debate about public spending

As a former chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, David Davis was always likely to want to contribute from the self-imposed freedom of the backbenches to the debate about how to get the public finances under control.

And today, through an article in the FT, the former shadow home secretary addresses the question of where the Government - and therefore a future Conservative government -  could find savings.

Firstly, he tackles the Labour language of "Tory cuts" head on:

"The choice we face is not between Labour growth in public services and Tory “cuts”. It is between taking a grip of the public finances and watching our people’s economic prospects, and our ability to afford decent public services, slowly dribble away."

Mr Davis goes on to suggest some of the ways in which he would find savings; several, such as abolition of ID cards and abolition of regional government, are already party policy - but others are not and therefore act as a useful contribution to the debate on the issue of how to tighten the nation's belt:

Tories and Lib Dems defeat Government on settlement rights for Gurkhas

Following exchanges over the issue at PMQs earlier, a vote has just taken place during an Opposition Day debate initiated by the Liberal Democrats in which the Government was defeated on settlement rights for Gurkhas.

MPs voted by 267 to 246 in favour of a motion that the government should extend an equal right of residence to all Gurkhas.

Conservatives and Lib Dem joined forces along with, I imagine, a number of Labour rebels (28 according to sources around the murmurs around the Commons). In advance of this afternoon's vote, shadow immigration minister Damian Green said:

“We are supporting the Gurkhas today because we believe the Government is being ungenerous and unfair. A Conservative Government would give all Gurkhas and their immediate dependents the right to settle here, and we hope the Government listens and acts immediately on this matter.”

Paul Waugh notes that David Cameron and Nick Clegg made a joint appearance outside the Commons in the wake of the vote, which is the culmination of a long campaign, highlighted here last week.

5.45pm update:

The following statements have just been put out:

Swine 'flu and the Gurkhas dominate exchanges at PMQs

Jonathan Isaby's verdict: A subdued session of PMQs, dominated as it was by swine 'flu and then the Gurkhas. Cameron was right to anticipate Clegg going on the Gurkhas and to take up the issue himself as well; and the Prime Minister's replies to both leaders on the issue were, as Nick Clegg said, "deeply evasive".

12.30pm Tory MP David Gauke highlights Labour manifesto pledge breaches on the EU referendum and tax rises. Brown prays in aid a quote from Ken Clarke on the Lisbon treaty; on tax Brown says that it is right that those who have benefited from increases in income should pay a little more.

12.23pm 1922 committee chairman Sir Michael Spicer asks: "Now that fiscal probity is back in vogue,  why do we need a Labour Government?" Brown reels of a list of statistics in reply.

12.20pm Clegg says the answer comes from someone leading a government without principles.

12.18pm Nick Clegg also raises the Gurkha issues, claiming the PM has been "deeply evasive" in his answers. "If some one is prepared to die for this country, surely they've a right to live in this country?". Brown says he is making progress on the issue and there is "more justice" for the Gurkhas now than there was before 1997.

12.17pm Labour MP Martin Salter adds pressure on Brown to "deliver justice on Gurkhas at last".

12.15pm Cameron says if the figures were robust, then the Gurkhas would not have been gathering outside the Commons and dying as they wait for a response from the Government. He reiterates his proposal to change the Immigration Bill. Brown says of course he will always look at proposals being made. Proposals must be based on proper facts and figures, he said.

12.12pm Cameron says that a new category should be introduced in immigration guidelines for those who have served in the armed forces, primarily aimed at the Gurkhas. Brown does not accept the figure of 100 which the Gurkhas' spokesmen say is how many fit the current government criteria. 

12.10pm Brown says the first action to help the Gurkhas has happened since 1997, creating equal pay and pensions for them, and doubloing the pensions for the pensions for those in Nepal. Brown says he keeps the matter of how many Gukhas to allow to settle in Britain "under review". He points out there ere no rights if settlement pre-1997.

Conservatives will mend Britain's broken economy, its broken society and its broken politics

That was the theme of this video that was launched on Sunday and shown before David Cameron spoke to the Cheltenham Spring Forum. The words are slightly hard to read on the small screen until 40 seconds in but are large enough after then.

It's a reworking of this video from October 2007.

Will the next Conservative Government face tougher challenges than Margaret Thatcher did in 1979?

 

Many superlatives are regularly being used when considering the sheer scale of the economic challenges which an incoming government led by David Cameron is likely to face next year.

And this is no surprise, given the speed at which the economy is currently shrinking as unemployment and borrowing are rising.

But how will the scale of the task facing David Cameron compare with that taken on by Margaret Thatcher, elected as she was thirty years ago next week?

The former Chancellor, Lord Lawson, puts a rather positive spin on it for Mr Cameron in an essay he has written for the new edition of Standpoint - you can now read the full article here.

Yes, we are suffering from the worst recession since the Second World War, but recessions pass, he writes; and he adds that despite the parlous state of the public finances, the underlying structural deficit is not much worse than that of three decades ago.

So whilst accepting that the Conservatives are likely to face "a singularly unattractive inheritance", he insists that "the problems of 2010, although considerable, pale into insignificance compared with those of 1979".

Lord Lawson continues:

You know the game's up for Labour when... Jarvis Cocker says a Tory victory is "necessary"

Whilst I don't expect to be seeing the former Pulp frontman given a speaking slot at a Tory conference any time soon, Jarvis Cocker has declared a Conservative victory at the next general election to be "necessary".

In the new edition of GQ magazine, the singer is quoted as saying:

"A Conservative government is necessary... Labour has been in power for a certain amount of time and (apart from the Conservatives) there is no credible alternative, so if you're not going to have Labour you're going to have the Conservatives. You can sense an era passing."

He goes on to conclude that the efforts of Gordon Brown are "all a bit lame".

Since the publication of the magazine, Cocker has released a statement emphasising that he is not giving his personal support to the Conservatives, but rather saying that a Tory victory "seems inevitable".

Even so, it's another nail in the coffin of the Labour Government when its former celebrity cheerleaders offer these kinds of assessments.

Jonathan Isaby

Conservatives question the Government's readiness to respond to a flu outbreak

After the World Health Organisation raised its pandemic flu alert to "phase 4" last night, shadow heath minister Stephen O'Brien has raised serious concerns over the Government's readiness to deal with an outbreak of the virus.

He says that eighteen months after the publication of a framework for responding to an outbreak of pandemic flu, the Government has still failed to put in place its promised National Flu Telephone Line.

It is due to be able to come online when the WHO announces a "phase 5" alert, yet despite previous government claims that it would be set up at the end of last year, later revised to "early 2009", health minister Lord Darzi admitted yesterday that the timetable has slipped to "the autumn".  

Mr O’Brien said:

“Experts have been warning for some time now that we were long overdue another global flu pandemic, which is why we have consistently warned the Government it must do all it can to prepare the country for such an eventuality. It is therefore a legitimate concern that a key part of that plan is some way off being implemented.

"The National Flu Line will be crucial if a pandemic were to happen in Britain, by allowing people to get the information and the anti-virals they will need to fight the flu without having to go to GP surgeries or hospitals. It is absolutely imperative that the Government takes action quickly to ensure that it is able to deal with the high numbers of calls from people who will need help should the virus spread in the UK."

Jonathan Isaby

> Yesterday on CentreRight Julia Manning listed the actions that government needed to take.

Eric Pickles takes us inside CCHQ...

In the first of a series of 'War Room briefings' the Party Chairman Eric Pickles takes us inside CCHQ and talks about the party's strategy.  He also urges members to click on to the revived CampaignTogether webpage where you can find out which by-elections are taking place and where help is most needed across the country.  This video is why ConHome wanted Eric as Party Chairman.  He loves campaigning and he is determined that CCHQ connects better with the grassroots.  It's also why Jeremy Middleton - another enthusiast for technology and membership democracy - will be such a good new Chairman of the Convention.

Tim Montgomerie

The Times launches unfair attack on David Cameron's attempts to promote women

The Times launches a strong attack on David Cameron's alleged failure to change the "male-dominated" Conservative Party this morning.  "Women take a back seat in Cameron's Tory Party" is the main front page splash.  A leader on page 2 says "David Cameron needs to do more to promote Conservative women."  A two page spread on pages 16 and 17 explains "How Cameron's conference stage has become a women-free zone."  The story is illustrated with a cleverly cropped photograph from Cheltenham with David Cameron surrounded by men on the conference stage.  While it's true that the shadow cabinet is male-dominated The Times is misleading readers in using expressions like "women free".  As Jonathan Isaby's photo below shows there were four women on stage with David Cameron in Cheltenham: Cheryl Gillan, Theresa May, Theresa Villiers (obscured but just sat behind William Hague) and Caroline Spelman.

I do not want to pretend that David Cameron has completely transformed female representation in the Conservative Party but The Times is being unfair to him.  If the Tories win a majority at the next election there'll be 50 to 60 Tory women MPs (many more if we win a large majority).  That's a big improvement on now.  He has promoted women to his top team - arguably too quickly in some cases.  Pauline Neville-Jones and Sayeeda Warsi were put in the Lords and into his shadow cabinet.  Neither were at Cheltenham.  Maria Miller and Justine Greening are doing well as more junior frontbenchers and could be promoted at any time.  Nadine Dorries MP is a hot tip to join CCHQ soon.  David Cameron aspires for one-third of his ministers to be women (an aspiration ConHome dislikes).

The most important thing during these challenging times for the nation is that David Cameron appoints the most able people to the top jobs in his team.  If you are wanting competence and ability to be the top criteria (and they should be) it is difficult to quarrel with the rapid promotions he has given the likes of Michael Gove, Greg Clark, Chris Grayling and Nick Herbert.  These are big brained stars of the future.  The two women in the Tory team that most impress me are Pauline Neville-Jones on security and Theresa Villiers for carving out a distinctive transport policy.  Now back at local government, after a rocky time as Chairman, Caroline Spelman is beginning to perform well again.  Sayeeda Warsi is good in the media but otherwise yet to prove herself worthy of such a massive appointment two years ago.  Theresa May at Work & Pensions has one of the most important jobs in David Cameron's team.  Cheryl Gillan at Wales is difficult to assess.

In the long-term I hope David Cameron will continue to appoint on merit.  Otherwise he'll have his Jacqui Smith-type problems.  And, in the medium term, there is a lot of cause for encouragement about Tory women.  PPCs such as Louise Bagshawe, Harriett Baldwin, Karen Bradley, Angie Bray, Lorraine Fullbrook, Rebecca Harris, Margot James, Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Laura Sandys, Phillippa Stroud... [I could go on] are going to make fine Tory MPs... and, I hope, ministers.
 
Tim Montgomerie

A Tory majority of 170!

No comment :-)

"One BBC journalist told me that his colleagues and editors were now more interested in an announcement from George Osborne than from Alistair Darling."

I blogged the title to this post last night and my friends at PoliticsHome decided to put the anecdote to the test...

Asked "In general, would you say you now pay more attention to policy announcements from the Conservatives or the Labour government?" 50% of the Westminster insiders answered Conservative.  Just 7% said Labour.  42% said Labour and Conservative equally.

Tim Montgomerie

Boris attacks 50p tax band as an "assault on London"

Boris Johnson's office has released a press statement condemning the 50p tax rate as "an assault on London".  Research by the Greater London Authority says that 145,000 Londoners will be hit by Darling's "banker taxes".  That 145,000 includes those earning £100,000 and affected by changes to allowances.

Boris Johnson believes that London already pays more than its fair share of UK tax revenues and is unhappy at this extra tax burden:

"Our capital is the engine room of the UK economy, generating 17% of the UK’s GDP each year and yet our figures show that the Government’s plans for high earner taxes will hit London four times harder than the rest of the UK. Penalising high earners with higher taxes could undermine London’s competitive edge. It runs the risk of driving highly skilled workers away from and deterring others from coming to our great city – which is a real concern to me."

David Cameron launches new campaign for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty

David Cameron has just launched the above poster as part of the Conservative campaign for the European Parliament election.

With the Constitution-cum-Treaty still yet to be ratified in Ireland, Czech Republic and Poland, Mr Cameron said now was the time to "maximise the pressure" on the Government to hold the referendum it promised at the last election. Indeed, he pointed out that the Conservatives were the only party which had stuck by its word on the issue (since the Lib Dems changed their tune as well).

Given recent U-Turns by Gordon Brown on public spending, MPs' allowances and "Titan" prisons, he said that he wanted another U-Turn - "and what better U-Turn to have than one on the European Constitution?".

In answer to the inevitable questions from the media about what the party would do if the Treaty has come into force across the EU if and when Cameron becomes Prime Minister and forms a government, Mr Cameron pointed out that people were saying the same thing a year ago, that it would have been ratified across the EU, "but here we are a year later and they still haven't... so let's concentrate on the here and now".

He repeated the familiar mantra that in such an eventuality, "we will not let matters rest there", but repeated that "the key thing is to maximise the pressure now" on Gordon Brown and Labour.

Jonathan Isaby

Ten reasons why Tory MEPs are 'delivering for Britain'

These reasons were put out in a leaflet (PDF) at Tory Spring Forum:

1. Fighting for British jobs by opposing job-destroying EU legislation like the Working Time Directive.
2. Opening up new markets for British business in sectors such as services, telecoms and energy.
3. Tory MEPs have defended British traditions - defeating attempts to ban the sale of goods in pounds and ounces. Tory MEPs have also fought for honesty in online air fare advertising and limited roaming charges for mobile phone use in Europe.
4. Conservative MEPs have kept their promise to campaign against the revised Constitutional Treaty and for the British people to have a referendum on Lisbon.
5. Conservative MEPs have voted to scrap wasteful EU spending, campaigned against the two homes for the European Parliament and to defend Margaret Thatcher's EU rebate.
6. Conservative MEPs are the only UK party to have voted against signing off the EU accounts every year since 1998 given that the EU Court of Auditors continues to refuse to give the accounts a clean bill of health.
7. Tory MEPs supported new EU legislation to cut carbon emmissions, promote renewable energy and control the use of dangerous chemicals.
8. Conservative MEPs support reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and freer, fairer trade with the developing world.
9. The Conservatives' Right To Know regime for expenses is the most transparent regime of any UK political party.
10. On animal welfare the Tories in the European Parliament have successfully campaigned for bans on battery cages for chickens, improved conditions for rearing pigs and a ban in trade of cat and dog fur.

ConHome's Reason 11 would be Dan Hannan.  THAT speech to Gordon Brown in the European Parliament.  He addressed Spring Forum in Cheltenham yesterday.  It's a must-watch speech and thanks to ToryBear you can watch it here.

Tim Montgomerie

> Conservatives in the European Parliament website

Ten conclusions from the Cheltenham Spring Forum

(1) The media have decided that the Conservatives have won the next election.  There has long been an expectation of Tory victory but it's become a near certainty because of recent events (particularly the Budget and misuse of expenses).  One BBC journalist told me that his colleagues and editors were now more interested in an announcement from George Osborne than from Alistair Darling.  Yesterday's announcement on primary school academies from Michael Gove led bulletins throughout the day.  Tory policy matters because the media class has decided that it will be Government policy in a year's time.

(2) The Tories have decided that Labour has reached the contempt phase.  William Hague predicted in 1997 that New Labour would first produce fascination among voters, then disillusionment, and then contempt.  It's taken longer than he perhaps hoped but yesterday the Shadow Foreign Secretary launched a no holds barred attack on the "decomposing political muckheap" that is Labour's frontbench.  He described Labour as the "disgustingly grubbiest" of all administrations of the modern era.  Strong stuff and it wouldn't have been issued if CCHQ wasn't confident that the public is now contemptuous of Brown.  William Hague is pictured with our Cheltenham PPC, Mark Coote.

(3) David Cameron is oozing confidence.  The Tory leader is a confident man who has a realistic expectation that he will be Prime Minister in a year's time.  It was obvious from his powerfully delivered speech and also obvious from two brief chats I had with him earlier today.  He is fully aware that with the expectation of a Tory victory he, his team and his manifesto are about to face unprecendented scrutiny.  A media class that gave Tony Blair an easy ride will not give an easy ride to the Conservatives.  David Cameron is pictured with the Liberal Democrat PPC who defected yesterday.

(4) The media are attempting to set up a Boris V Cameron split.  Saturday's Times suggested that Boris "despises" Cameron.  Interviewed by ConHome yesterday the Mayor of London dismissed the story as "tripe" and "fantastic".  He also said that it was "almost certain" that being Mayor would be his last big job in politics but not one journalist in Cheltenham believes that Boris has given up his ambition to follow David Cameron into Downing Street.  The Boris story is going to run and run.

(5) David Cameron and George Osborne say they want a mandate for specific spending cuts.  David Cameron said that ministers will be promoted according to their success at using new technology and decentralisation to deliver more on smaller budgets.  And, nearer the time of the election, they will spell out the specific nature of planned spending cuts.

ConservativeHome Comment: It is still far from clear to me whether those cuts will be just enough to move Britain away from the cliff (and the next Conservative government will be about managing relative decline) or whether they'll be big enough to start to restore Britain's 1997 status as the enterprise capital of Europe.

(6) The next Conservative government will probably raise taxes.  That has to be the conclusion from David Cameron's address to Spring Forum.  He said (my emphasis): "Fifteen years ago, I was in the Treasury as we had to deal with public finances that had got out of control; debt that had got too high. We had to put up taxes, and I hated it. But it was the right thing to do and that lesson has stayed with me." 

(7) Philip Hammond is a rising star.  His steady rise in the ConHome league table captures the increasingly high regard that grassroots members have for the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  A safe, intelligent and hardworking frontbencher, George Osborne said that Mr Hammond would be "one of the most powerful members of the government."

(8) Spring Forum needs to be better organised.  The Saturday agenda was very thin - rescued by strong speeches from Boris Johnson to all representatives and from William Hague to candidates.  Two half hour sessions from Andrew Lansley and Michael Gove were closed to the media (except to ConHome!!) and put in such a small room that many conference attendees couldn't even get in.  The party needs to decide whether it wants a two day conference or a one day rally (although it must always be addressed by Dan Hannan).  Spring Forum fell between the two possibilities this weekend.

(9) Jeremy Middleton will be a great representative of the grassroots.  I backed him and am therefore biased but the grassroots have a new Chairman of the National Convention who believes in members' democratic rights and is a believer in the internet's transformational power.  Commiserations to the other candidates for the job and the party owes the now retired Don Porter enormous thanks for all his years of service to the Conservative Party.

(10) The new generation of Conservative candidates is impressive.  I hesitate to name too many names but the more I see our candidates the more I'm hopeful about the next Conservative government.  Andrea Leadsom, Harriett Baldwin, Charlie Elphicke and so many others I caught up with in Cheltenham are going to make us proud.

Tim Montgomerie

Cameron: It was right to raise taxes when Britain last faced a debt crisis

Speaking to the Tory Spring Forum in Cheltenham the Tory leader said tax increases were the right thing to do when Britain last faced a (less serious) debt crisis in the early 1990s.  Echoing George Osborne's remarks to Sky News earlier he promised that, in due course, he would tell voters about Tory spending plans BEFORE the election.  Tory strategists believe that voters are not yet clamouring for details from the Tories and that they don't expect them until nearer the election time when the scale of the budgetary challenge facing the incoming government is clearer.  In the meantime the Tories intend to show they are working hard on plans to deliver better value for taxpayers' money and that ministers will be promoted (or sacked) in proportion to their success at cutting their budgets and using decentralisation and technology to deliver better services.  "More for less," is David Cameron's promise.

Highlights from David Cameron's Spring Forum address:

We've created a balanced and true Conservatism: "Yes we’re the party of strong borders, law and order and low taxes – and we always will be. But today we’re also the party of the NHS, the environment and of social justice too."

Britain needs massive change: "Unless we deal with this debt crisis, we risk becoming once again the sick man of Europe.  Our recovery will be held back, and our children will be weighed down, by a millstone of debt. So this is no time for business as usual. This is no time for more of the same. There is only one way out of this mess, and that is through massive change. I’m frustrated it’s not happening. I’m impatient to get on with it. And today I want to explain what the change needs to be."

We will tell people how we'll balance the books BEFORE the General Election: "In the weeks and months ahead, the Shadow Cabinet will redouble its efforts to identify wasteful and unnecessary public spending. Make no mistake: I am very clear about how much more work there is still to be done in order to identify significant future savings. We will carry out this work. We will do so responsibly. And in time, we will set out the hard choices that lie ahead."

Highlights of George Osborne's speech to the Cheltenham Spring Forum

Labour has run out of ideas: "They have run out of ideas. The economy is on its knees, enterprise is suffocated, we’re falling behind in the race to the future. And what is there proposal? A return to the 1970s with a 50% top rate of tax. With the dishonesty of trying to present a £2 billion tax rise on the wealthy as the answer to a £200 billion borrowing requirement. So out goes all that New Labour talk of ‘aspiration’ and ‘opportunity’ and owning the centre ground. In comes all that Old Labour language of ‘soak the rich’ and ‘make the pips squeak’. We will look back at this time and realise that we were hearing the last, sour notes of a requiem mass. New Labour. Born 1994. Died April 22nd 2009. Private funeral. Don’t send flowers."

Labour have taxed dishonestly: "Our priority must be to stop the tax rises on the many not just the few. Perhaps we should not be surprised that the great New Labour experiment ended like this. It was always built on an economic lie. The lie that you could go on increasing spending faster than your economy was growing, and never have to pay for it. At first, they promised there would be ‘no tax increases at all’. Then they turned to stealth taxes, like the tax raid that did so much damage to pensions. After that they tried stealth spending through PFI. And still it was not enough. So they sold our gold at a record low, and then they started to borrow when our economy was on a high. They borrowed and they borrowed, and they never stopped. They should have fixed the roof while the sun was shining. Instead they stored up debts that will take a generation to pay off."

Conservatives were right on the fiscal stimulus: "Last autumn, I stood before you at our Party Conference and I told you that the cupboard was bare. It’s worse than I thought. The cupboard itself is about to taken away by the bailiffs. The public finances are out of control and that presents a clear and present danger to the prosperity of an entire generation. We must act and act fast. We need a government of thrift in this age of austerity. David Cameron and I have earned the right to be heard on this. It wasn’t easy standing up and telling the public that the country could not afford Labour’s temporary VAT cut, but we did it and we did it almost alone. And it wasn’t easy standing up and telling some people in this party that sound money is the only route to real tax cuts – but we did that too."

Philip Hammond will be one of the most powerful members of a Cameron government: "Gordon Brown downgraded the job of Chief Secretary and removed from his Cabinet colleagues their right to be involved in the overall spending decisions of government. I want our Chief Secretary, Philip Hammond, the star of this week’s Question Time, to be one of the most powerful members of the government. I want my colleagues in Cabinet to be collectively responsible for the spending decisions we take. They won’t be the representatives of their departments in the Cabinet, they will be the representatives of the Cabinet in their departments."  Yesterday's ConHome survey of members found Philip Hammond rising steadily up the shadow cabinet league table.

Conservatives will be more specific about how we'll fix things but only when the time is right: "given how dramatically the borrowing forecasts have deteriorated and how fast this last Budget has unraveled, I ask how sensible would it be to write that 2010 Budget now? Yes, we will give specifics. Yes, we will seek a mandate. But we will take our time and get it right – because we can see today with this government what happens when you get it wrong."

George Osborne wants mandate from voters for specific spending cuts

PoliticsHome has recorded his words as delivered to Sky News:

"I have always been under pressure to set out my budget for 2010. We will provide the country with specifics - we are looking for a mandate at this election for the decisions we need to make. But we will do it at the right pace."

Let's hope there's a secret plan

A year ago the Conservative Spring Forum was in Gateshead.  I urged the Tory leader to give a speech that levelled with the British people:

"It's time for David Cameron to tell the British people that Britain is going in the wrong direction.  He needs to say that we're living beyond our means.  We're spending too much and borrowing too much.  We have surrendered our streets to yobbery and incivility.  Britain's schools are failing the poorest members of society.  He needs to promise a government that will put things right and he should tell the British people that it won't be easy or painless.  We need to forget the focus groups and the polling for just one minute and tell the truth about a nation that is in trouble.  Mr Cameron might be surprised at voters' reaction.  Our hunch is that the first politician to tell the British people 'how it really is' will form a bond with many millions of them."

From reports it appears that David Cameron will deliver something close to that speech today, in Cheltenham.

With the considerable exception of the party's opposition to Darling's autumn stimulus (although even that was backed by considerable private polling) the Tories have been very unwilling to get ahead of public opinion on the recession.  And let's be clear: This tactic has been an enormous political success.  A second YouGov poll put the Tories 18% ahead last night.  The collapse of Labour means that it's as certain as anything in politics that David Cameron will be Prime Minister. Political success doesn't mean success for the country, of course.  New Labour were an enormous political success but did not succeed as a government. 

New YouGov poll shows Tory lead steady at 18%

A new YouGov poll for tomorrow's People newspaper shows the Tory lead remaining at 18%, in line with the most recent YouGov/Daily Telegraph poll from earlier this week:

Being Mayor is "almost certainly my last big job in British politics"

Speaking exclusively to ConservativeHome Boris Johnson has acted swiftly to dispel speculation that he is antagonistic towards David Cameron and is planning to become Prime Minister.  Being London Mayor is "almost certainly my last big job in British politics" he said.

He went on to describe The Times' report that he "despised" David Cameron as "obvious tripe" and "fantasy".  Anyone who knows us would know it was tripe, he continued.

A desperate Labour Party and bored media was inventing "unimaginative" copies of the Blair-Brown tensions and applying them to the Conservatives.  It was "pathetically schematic".  I am "utterly dedicated to London" he said.

There'll be more of ConHome's interview with Boris Johnson on his first anniversary.

Tim Montgomerie

Jeremy Middleton elected chairman of the National Conservative Convention

The results of this year's elections for the officers of the National Conservative Convention have just been announced. The results were as follows:

Chairman

Jeremy Middleton - 364 (elected)
Simon Mort - 164
Sir Graham Bright - 57

Vice Presidents

Fiona Hodgson - 450 (elected)
Charles Barwell - 367 (elected)
Paul Swaddle - 344 (elected)
John Walsh - 287

(Emma Pidding was returned unopposed as President)

Congratulations to Jeremy and those elected to serve as Vice Presidents; commiserations to those who were unsuccessful.

Jonathan Isaby

Hague throws rhetorical kitchen sink at the "decomposing political muckheap" that is Labour's frontbench

William Hague once promised that New Labour would first be greeted with fascination, then admiration, then disillusionment and finally contempt.

Speaking to Tory candidates in Cheltenham (right) he made the strongest and most negative attack on Labour of the Cameron era.

He described Labour as the "disgustingly grubbiest" of all administrations of the modern era.  He said that Labour had been "narrow partisan and factional" rather than statesmanlike.  The Conservatives now have a solemn duty to remove "these people" from office, he continued.  We must "spare no effort to get rid of this government."

The Shadow Foreign Secretary said as he sat opposite the Labour benches on Budget day that they looked and sounded as though they were bereft of ideas.  Disraeli once compared the government of his day to exhausted volcanoes but, said Hague, Labour ministers looked like a "decomposing political muckheap."

Tory activists have long wanted the leadership to be much more negative about Labour but Tory strategists were anxious not to get ahead of the public mood.  William Hague - who will not have acted without the agreement of Andy Coulson and George Osborne - has decided that the public mood is now at that famous contempt phase.

Tim Montgomerie