ICM suggests Tories are losing a little support

After the weekend polls showing Labour support down an ICM survey for The Guardian will disappoint CCHQ.  The Tory lead is down to 10%.  It was 13% at the end of March.

7am on Tuesday 21st April

Whereas the headline voting intention figure appears to suggest a drop in Conservative support, there is better news on the question about which party is most trusted to handle the economy, as The Guardian reports:

"But underlying trends are worrying for Labour. In particular, the government is losing trust on the economy, while the Conservatives are winning it. Asked whether they trust the Tory team of David Cameron and George Osborne, or Labour's Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, to run the economy, 45% pick the Tories and 35% Labour.

"When ICM last asked the question, in January this year, the Tory lead was just two points, 37-35. In January 2008, Labour led by seven points, 39-32. That means the opposition is now polling ahead of its overall party vote score on economic competence. In the past this issue has been seen as Tory weakness."

Comments

[Alex Fisher]

Bit of a difference between this and the poll done by the ICM sister company the other day...

[Saint Diamond]

This puts others at 11% - which for a general election is a little high.

Still not the best news this week. Lets hope the budget and the admission of the worst economy snce WW2 will restore the +15% lead

[Pink Tory]

We all read too much into individual polls. Keep focussed on the big picture guys.

[Francis R]

Aye, the big picture, no one will care about this poll in a few days

[Steve Green (Daily Referendum)]

I find poll very hard to believe. Where was it carried out, Barnsley?

[TRG Tory]

It's a 10% lead folks. We would have died for that two years ago.

[angryvoter, Swad]

Yes we would TRG. But a week is a long time in politics and thus this lead is not good enough!

Enough to get us into government, but not enough to consign Brown's Labour to the dustbin.

[Emily Sedgefield]

Yep, it's the BNP :)

[maas101]

Perhaps if the leadership actually started taking this government to task rather than just hoping that they'll just self-destruct the polls might be better.

DC & Co. seem too afraid of offending anyone to actually stand up and say that they will make hard decisions for the benefit of the country. Consequently whether right or wrong they make themselves look weak.

10% may be enough, perhaps not offending anyone until the election is won is the right approach but Dave had better grow a pair soon after.

Labour deserve to be replaced but not by someone who is too weak to get the job done.

[Norm Brainer]

Well there were a few promising emails and interviews from the conservatives over the weekend, which may drag things back from 'others' if they carry on the theme in parliament for the next week or so, but I really can't see that nearly 1 in 3 people would put a tick in the labour box.

I know a lot of people just assume that conservative bad, labour good and never listen to sense or the news, but really that many? I don't think so.

[Pink Tory]

Voters are never wrong.

They know Labour are rubbish but they also feel that the Tories are not different enough. That is the task before us.

[Alan Phillips]

The only poll I'm intersted in the one on GE Day - I'm happier with my gut that a labour rag commissioned poll - my gut says Labour are gonna get spanked, so do every everybody I know think that, so if we were asked, the poll would have had the Tories on 55%

[christina Speight]

I wish people would read what's there before commenting !!!

I do not understand Conservative Home's assessment of changes. A month ago The Guardian (18/3/09) carried a poll by ICM which showed :-
Conservative---42%- Labour ---------30% ; Liberal Dmcrts 20% ; ( = the balance Others-------------8%)

There has been no other ICM poll anywhere since.

With those figures the changes would be Conservative -2%- Labour n/c; Liberal Dmcrts n/c ; ( = the balance Others +2%%) Instead of which we get

Conservative------40% = -4%
Labour ---------30% = -1%
Liberal Dmcrts ----19% = +1%
Others-----------11% = +4%

BUT THE GUARDIAN GIVES A third version: viz---
Conservative------40% = -2%
Labour ---------30% = n/c
Liberal Dmcrts ----19% = -1%
Others-----------11% = +3%

WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON PLEASE?

[Raj]

As Pink Tory says, stop obsessing over individual polls. There are elections this year if you'd forgotten....

[Yet Another Anon]

We all read too much into individual polls. Keep focussed on the big picture guys.
I have a somewhat low opinion of polls on voting intention, they can be way out, and polls of polls can just end up reflecting how way out most of them may be.

But certainly with the scandals about politicians, mainly from the 2 main parties which is lardely due to the fact that more MPs means more scandals, so the parties with most MPs get hit the most, so I would expect a lot of cynicism about parliamentary partys, particularily the big 2, added to that a sense that the frontbenches have so gone over to rather timid politics, racked with worry over conforming to political correctness and a fear of bold ideas, all focused on negative campaigning, while which of the big 3 has the best negative campaigning undoubtedly gives them an advantage relative to the other 2 and so helps in terms of seats while the big 3 remain the big 3, it undoubtedly helps drive the vote of all 3 down which helps the smaller partys.

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Just hold on a second!!!

Here's a few recent high profile developments:

1. Cabinet Ministers with grace & favour pads claiming second home allowances

2. Home Secretary's tax payer funded pornography

3. Same Home Secretary instructs police to arrest HM Opposition Immigration spokesman (turns out - no case to answer)

4. PM's team creating slanderous lies about HM Opposition members & spouses

And ICM reckon Conservatives down 4% & Labour down only 1%????

Only if Gordon Brown has recruited Bob Mugabe as the replacement for Damian McBride and made him in sole charge of Polls!

[Prodicus]

Easter holidays, DC invisible, poll result QED. Business as usual from this week. One good punch will fix this.

[Prodicus]

OT - The Brogan link on the R needs updating.

[Kevin]

I heard Norman Lamont on the TV today saying that Labour were at 60% and the Tories at 20% before the 1997 election. I don't know if that is right or not but it sounds like the sort of lead the Tories should have now given how Labour is despised. Why haven't they got such a lead? Because they simply don't bother to oppose Labour or present a credible case for themselves, just assuming they'll win because Labour will self destruct. They might be in for a surprise.

[Andrew Woodman]

Kevin, those polling figures were wild and never accurate. The only pollster to take notice of in the 90s was ICM. The lowest the Tories fell with them was about 25 which is where Labour are hovering.

Poll is slightly disappointing but the other polls this week will show whether it's a lip or a trend.

[Bruno Prior]

The polling was carried out between 17 and 19 April. Could some of it have been carried out after the Dispatches programme went out? That showed that Tory MPs like Francis Maude have their snouts more firmly in the trough even than Jacqui Smith and Tony McNulty. Wouldn't surprise me if people watching that concluded that both major parties were as bad as each other, which would also explain why the winner in this poll (marginally) is the LibDems.

It probably also doesn't help that the Tories were adopting an "all things to all men" approach at the weekend. You want spending cuts? We got spending cuts (well, slower increases anyway). You want us to list lots of pet projects? We got lots of them too. It's a compliment to a small band of swing voters that they could smell this for what it really is.

[Lola]

If the Tories had been consistent since 1997 in condeming the New Labour policies that have got us into this mess they would now have more credibility and be higher in the polls.

[Andrew Woodman]

Bruno, do you really believe the whole country was glued to dispatches and changed their voting intentions based on Francis Maude.

These programmes barely get 5% of the viewing totals. Do you think everyone is eatching the credit crisis dispatches programme now or Coronation Street?

[Country Mouse]

Of course we should not get all excited about a single poll. But I totally agree with the posters above who say CCHQ have got it wrong. The voters no longer want a cuddly party, they want strong leadership with a strong compass pointing in a conservative direction. None of this nonsense of the middle ground.
The other non-Labour parties, including the BNP, will take our votes.

[Peter Harrison]

Christina - there was an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph on 26th March. That poll showed Con 44, Lab 30, LibDem 18. The movements shown in the article are correct compared to that poll.

The Guardian's movement figures are compared to the last poll in the Guardian and are also correct.

I'm afraid your figures are incorrect. This poll shows the LibDems on 19%. As you correctly say, they were on 20% in the last Guardian/ICM poll so that is not n/c as you have calculated. They are -1% and others are +3%.

[Peter Harrison]

Sorry - I've got a typo too! The ICM/Sunday Telegraph figure for Labour was 31, which makes the article correct.

[Mr Angry]

Polls prove very little unless there is an obvious trend across various different polls over some fair lump of time.

On that basis what we know for sure is that the Conservatives are in front and that the LibDems are going nowhere with Labour fairly consistently losing support, albeit more of a hemorrhage than a dam burst though.

How one then chooses to interpret that information though is of course entirely another matter.

My own view is that we have reached the point where we have picked up all of the ex Labour voters that we are going to unless we start to provide some concrete and convincing reasons for people to vote Conservative, rather than just continuing to count on them not wanting to vote Labour and seeing us as the only viable alternative.

Of course the wild card in all of this are the BNP who are extremely likely to gain more votes than the polls would suggest purely because people do not want to admit to pollsters that they intend to vote for them.

[stuart]

win win on 4th june

we will

[David Hendon]

Well the poll that I'm interested in is the one that comes out after we find out which Shadow Cabinet members and two former ministers allegedly:

ahem - "like being whipped whilst high on cocaine"!

[Jsheedycf]

The point I find most disgraceul about this whole situation is when the conservatives achieve a victory of less than two percentage points difference of that won by Blair in 1997, we end up with a majority of two whereas they ended up with a majority of 150+.

The simple fact is that Labour have been rigging elections right before our eyes for years and the party has never made enough of a point of it.

You know there's a problem when in 2005 we polled 70,000 more votes than Labour in England and yet came out with 92 less seats than they did.

Of course the vile organisation that is the BBC would never dream of exploring such an issue but why oh why isn't our party making a big enough point about this!

[christina Speight]

The figures are actually WRONG as I pointed out at 19:48. I am hoping for an explanation. There's absolutely no point in discussing them until it has been straightened,

[John Reeks]

Don't be bothered by polls. I'm sick of hearing about every 'Brown Bounce', of which there are sure to be more before June 2010. What matters is general trends, and that says to me that Brown, and Labour, are finished, and have been ever since the election that never was.

[Silent Hunter]

In an effort to illustrate why you guys are not miles ahead in the polls given that we are practically watching "The Mafia" running Downing Street; I posted the following on Conservativehome, back in February and I STILL think that the issues raised are pertinent to the reasons that the Concervatives are NOT further ahead in the polls than they should be, given the completely Corrupt Regime that we currently suffer under.

Quote:

I really can't believe that you Tories still can't understand what we are all crying out for in this country.

FFS?...............It's not rocket science!

We want.........in no particular order..........

1. Fairness in society. An end to the feckless getting everything handed to them on a plate whilst people who work are hammered for ever more tax to pay for it. Balance that with help for those who DO really need it.

2. An end to the parliamentary perks culture in our Government and Civil Service.
Clear out ALL the Tories who have their snouts in the trough and for God's sake be brutal about it..........SHOW US that you're different to Labour..........It's obviously not clear to the electorate that you ARE different; or the polls would be much higher in your favour.

3. An end to useless managers and bankers paying themselves handsomely for doing a crap job. Make them pay back every last penny of their bonuses and perks.
How many of your own so-called core vote falls into this category?
Ditch them!...........They only harm you in the eyes of ordinary voters struggling to pay their mortgages and bills.

4. An end to repressive government trying to spy on everything that we do in our lives.
Follow up on David Davis' stand..........Don't just Tut Tut as this repressive ZaNuLabour Party tries to remove ALL our Freedoms which were so hard fought for by better generations than us.........for God's sake; GET ANGRY ABOUT IT!
Say you WON'T accept it!
Pledge to reverse all the crass, Stassi like laws that Labour have brought in.........BE PREPARED TO BE COURAGEOUS........forget the bloody focus groups..........READ THE BLOODY BLOGS!......they will tell you more at a glance than any number of pointless focus groups.

5. We want an end to escalating armaments - what the hell do we need a Nuclear Arsenal for?.........we, nor any of the other stupid F*ckWhits who have them, can ever use them without destroying everything anyway.............It's M.A.D.! in all senses of the meaning.

6. Get rid of FPTP voting!
It's totally undemocratic that 20% of a popular vote can earn you a 100 seat majority in the Primary Legislative Chamber of our Country. How can a few thousand votes in a few marginals deciding the fate of millions be fair?

Give us PR and restore a true democracy to this country.

That WOULD be courageous!

7. Don't be afraid to make mistakes!
If you are in error about something............Say so!
The public are not stupid despite what the tabloid press would have us all believe............ignore the underclass opinion..........listen to the educated people of this country for a change.

ABOVE ALL...............PROVE TO US that you are no longer the Tories of yore who we remember as being , uncaring, greedy, self serving, corrupt and sleazy.
Everything that this current Labour Party ARE.

SHOW us that you ARE different........don't just 'tell' us that you've changed............SHOW us that you've changed by what you DO; words are cheap.........ACTIONS are what count.

Posted by: Silent Hunter | February 14, 2009 at 22:56

Further to the above, I would suggest that the "Mr Pickles Does Question Time" debacle and the reaction of the audience should tell you something about what the ordinary voting public think about our politicians.

It's very simple; people are not voting for you because they trust you - they're only prepared to vote for you because they perceive the Tories as "less bad" - only when the Tories are seen as 'Whiter than White" and more importantly......"On OUR side" ie We, the general public as opposed to vested interests like greedy bankers, city slickers and the like, will you see the polls take off for you.

I would say that I'm a floating voter who thought I hated the sleaze & corruption of the Major Government - but New Labour have really taught me what it is to REALLY HATE a political party - so much so, that I would happily see them destroyed for good as punishment for what they have done to this country.......and to others with their illegal wars.

[Ross Warren]

Well this poll although disappointing in some respects at least confirms a 10% lead.
This cannot be doing the nerves of the Labour backbenches much good. It will be nice to see the chamber after the next election all those awful labour wimmin will be trimmed right back.

[Sally Roberts]

This is bizarre! So over the weekend we get two polls, one put us 17 and one 19 points ahead and yet this one has us only 10 points ahead! I simply don't understand it - and it does not tally with what people are finding on the doorstep and the phone either. Labour is haemorraging support daily.

[Philip]

A 10 point lead gives us a majority of 2! A 10 point lead for Labour would (if I recall correctly) win them a majority of about 130. About time we had equal number of voters in each constituency, (which I think DC has promised)

[joshuwahwah]

You lot make me laugh so much. The rogue polls at the weekend were fantastic for you. This REAL poll means that you are not going to form the next Government. And comments like this

'I find poll very hard to believe. Where was it carried out, Barnsley?'

do not help, they are officious to say the least. And whilst you retain this attitude you will suffer.

[Tim Montgomerie]

This poll has to be seen not just in the context of SmearGate but also in terms of Brown's G20 bounce, David Cameron's recent absence from most broadcast media (he was brilliant on SunTalk earlier today) and also what is likely to be a difficult Budget for Labour on Wednesday. Last year's Darling Budget produced a strong boost in Tory support.

(@Silent Hunter,

That's an off topic post! I've warned you before.)

[MG]

Two things,

Firstly I am not actually that surprised at this poll and warned about the reaction to the polling at the weekend. Certainly we are still nicely ahead with some good feedback on the ground but we have not made as much headway as we thought despite Labour problems because Cameron has not been in the news as much and because we have not yet set out our stall clearly. I assume that will happen after the budget and we are into the final 12 months run up to a GE.

Secondly, and largely for Kevins benefit, polling years ago was not accurate and it is now thought by polling experts that Labour poll leads in the past were wrong and that no party is likely to secure such large leads with the more accurate polling now employed. See Political Betting site for all the detail on polling where debate on that issue is very well informed indeed.

[Ross Warren]

Sally Roberts

Its a sign of the volatility that is now a factor in our politics I think. I tend to go with the mean result rather than getting to excited over the ups and downs. A 10% core lead is still a very promising sign at this stage. Its been a very long time since Labour had a lead in fact Brown has been nothing but a liability for them as well as the whole nation. I think the only hope they have of winning the next election is to get rid of Brown soon and hope that the public will swallow it whole. I don't think there is much chance of that as Brown is far to much of a stalinist to give up without tearing their awful party to bits.

[joshuwahwah]

Tim,

I respect and admire you in equal measures. However, please do not big yourselves up in a poll at the weekend and then defend yourselves in this real poll. I understand you have an affinity to the party but this poll is more indicative to what I am hearing on the doorstep.

[Steve Green (Daily Referendum)]

joshuwahwah,

Crap. And I'm from Barnsley.

[Tim Montgomerie]

@joshuwahwah,

My honest view is that we are substantially ahead in the polls. I've believed for some time that we are heading for a landslide win - Jonathan Isaby is much more cautious. I'd actually prefer the race to be slightly closer. I think the Tory leadership is more interesting and innovative when its under electoral pressure.

[Sally Roberts]

@Rosswarren - you speak common sense! I think you are right.
@joshuwahah - I am afraid you are being told porkies on the doorstep! You've probably got such a nice face that the voters can't bear to wipe the smile off it....

[Silent Hunter]

Tim:

Look I'm sorry but where am I supposed to put it - OK, and that's a hostage to fortune. ;o) Is this not a general thread?

My post is a genuine attempt to address the question "why aren't we further ahead in the polls" which seems to be a major question here; are they all 'off-topic' as well?

If my post is off-topic; by all means remove it.

[Jsheedycf]

@Tim

Would you not agree though Tim that even with an vote plurality "landslide" that this will not lead to a parliamentary majority "landslide".

It will prove very difficult for us to form the majority necessary to get through extremely difficult reforms, such as the reduction in the number of MPs that is so drastically needed!

Plus if Europe ever becomes an issue again (please let it be a topic of discussion but NOT like last time) we have to be prepared to see off rebellions. In fact we do on all fronts because we tend in part to be a collection of perspectives in the conservative party.

The powerful majority is necessary and yet near impossible to achieve!

[christina Speight]

Tim

Since you're there could you please answer my repeated query (at 1948 and 2132) about why there are three sets of different figures running around ?

Until we know that there's no point whatsoever in discussing the figures !

[Tim Montgomerie]

My apologies Christina. Peter Harrison had replied to you but here goes...

There was an ICM poll since the last one for The Guardian. It was for The Sunday Telegraph at the end of March and I linked to it in the main post. The changes in opinion in my graphic are with that SunTel/ICM poll.

Hope this helps!

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

I still say Labour is DOOMED.

1) The polls in the marginals show a bigger gap and as far as I am aware ICM haven't changed their polling methods since 2005 like other pollsters. Of course, this may be a rogue poll - I seem to remember that we had one or two this time last year.

2) The Labour party are publicly rowing abour two PPC selections.

3) Gordon is personally most unpopular - he has no charisma.

4) Jobs are getting scarcer and petrol is increasing in price.

I think that in the end the Lib Dems will overtake Labour.

[Pink Tory]

Do you wear an anorak Freddy? Your relentless enthusiasm for E V E R Y T H I N G Tory is a bit scary.

[Tom FD]

What the volatility of the polling shows is that each individual local campaign will count at the general election. If a Tory PPC wants to win his or her seat, the polls show it's there for the taking - but they'll have to work hard in order to get it.

[Freddy]

@Pink Tory

Yes! I do wear an anorak!

Remember - The Tories united will never be defeated!

[Yet Another Anon]

It will prove very difficult for us to form the majority necessary to get through extremely difficult reforms, such as the reduction in the number of MPs that is so drastically needed!
Deals with the DUP would add significantly to parliamentary support for such legislation, the DUP mostly in confidence motions and things not relating to Northern Ireland back whoever is in providing they get concessions on powers to the Northern Ireland Assembly - perhaps go for a full Parliament for Northern Ireland and exempt Northern Ireland. Any majority has also to be considered in regard to who turns up and who doesn't - the Speaker and Deputy Speakers Casting Votes by convention goes with the government and the refusal of Sin Fein to take up Westminster seats inflates the position of the government in relation to opposition by 5 or so.

[Tony Walker]

Everyone hates Brown and Labour but we are not convincing. People in the North especially still hate us- they moan about brown and labour and advocate our policies but still would vote lab over tory. We need to convince people we have changed as a party

[Pink Tory]

I agree with YetAnotherAnon. I also fear a large Cameron majority. I want him to need to heed backbench parliamentary opinion.

[David Barnett]

A Cameron government with only a small majority would be a disaster. Within months it would be deeply unpopular and losing by elections.

To deal with the horrendous mess we are in it and come thropugh the inevitable unpopularity he would need a large majority of at least 50. And I see no hope of that. In fact I see no hope, full stop.

[Seth Gillette]

I think we all need to calm down.

There's a good chance this is an outlier with a small sample.

I believe Ipsos-Mori have a poll out tomorrow. That will confirm of deny.

[christina Speight]

Tim - Thanks ! despite repeated visits to the screen I somehow missed Peter Harrison's posting(s) for which thanks too.

It's all rather a mess though isn't it with nobody being sure what is being compared with what! (with UK Polling report having a different 'take' on it all. )

[christina Speight]

Seth - a normal sized ICM sample.

[Nonynoo]

For whom the Bell Polls......

[Seth Gillette]

Okay, I was wrong about that, but you're telling me opinion has changed that much in 2-3 days??

Have I missed something?!

ICM are well-regarded but they're due an off-day. Let's see what Mori tells us on the morrow.

(incidentally, worst case scenario is healthy to be kept in mind; no resting on laurels please people! Then again, a 10% lead is hardly the worst of worst case scenarios is it?!)

[Tristan Downing]

Is it true that a 10% lead means far less for the Conservatives than it does for Labour? If so, how long has that been the case and what is the cause of it?

I don't just want to beat Labour, I want them destroyed. With scandal after scandal, how can they have any support left? Labour's whole plan from the start has been to buy votes, but what exactly can they do that with now? They have no money with which to buy votes. Can we not make it clear to all those voters expecting their something for nothing, that Labour will not be able to give it to them anymore?

[Comstock]

Labour are actually down, but I take what comfort I can these days...

[Jsheedycf]

@ Tristan Downing

The basic premise is that Labour held seats have many tiny electorates with respect to Conservative held seats, for example we hold the massive Isle of Wight seat with an electorate of around 100,000.

Whereas Labour holds many seats that are in the 40,000-60,000 area in terms of electorate. Thus Labour can have two seats for the price of one in terms of votes so to speak. The biggest examples of which tend to be found in London and Scotland, where Labour can purge traditional Labour voters and give them massive over-representation.

That is why the 10% lead for the Conservatives is far lower than it is for Labour in terms of majority. It has been case majorly I would say for the past 20 or so years since Lady Thatcher left office.

[Steve Tierney]

There is no way to know the real figures, and no poll featuring a few thousand people will ever be right, no matter whose side it favours.

My own personal opinion (and only that) would put us at about 45%, Labour at about 25% and Lib Dems at about 18%. A very personal opinion based on what I hear on the doorstep and am told by people I meet. It's no more or less likely to be right than these polls though.

June 4th will answer a lot of questions, particularly the County Results. The Euro Results are going to be skewed by anti-EU voting which wont repeat at a general election.

I reckon 400+ seats for Conservatives next general election. (Unless something disastrous happens before then for us). Time will tell.

[Bruno Prior]

Andrew, Did you notice that the differences between this poll and the previous ones (from ICM) were also marginal? It's not like musical chairs, where a small change requires everyone to get up and run around.

But you may be right that this hadn't sunk in at all, and anyway, for sure most (maybe all the) people were asked before the programme. In which case, when it has had more time to be picked up by other media (the Mirror ran with it today, not surprisingly) and sink in, the polls could get worse.

Maude deserves every bit as much opprobrium as McNulty, and should tarnish the Tories as much as Labour trough-guzzlers tarnish their party, if it is given as much attention by the media as they have given Labour offenders.

[Jack]

Are their still any labour voters? I find this very hard to belive - and I speak as a recent and former voter for the Labour party myself.

[Taxpayer]

Where is Gloy Plopwell nowadays?

[Freddy]

@Seth Gillette

This poll is an outlier.

[Sally Roberts]

Freddy, don't worry about them teasing you about the anorak! It shows that you do a lot of campaigning on the doorstep come rain or come shine which is probably more than than some critics can say....
You and I are constantly teased for our loyalty to the Party but there are many just like us who only comment very occasionally or not at all on this site.

[Jimmy]

Pink Tory | April 20, 2009 at 19:36

Voters are never wrong
They know Labour are rubbish but they also feel that the Tories are not different enough. That is the task before us.

How much support do you think floating voters will give the Conservatives when they read on Boulton & Co’s blog site a Conservative ,yes a CONSERVATIVE!!
Laughing at people loosing their jobs.

Below is what was posted to that site and it is still on in plain view for all to see.

Quote:
Latest forecast is 3.25 Million unemployed within a year. Funny isn't it. Hee, hee, ho, ho, ha, ha....

The beleaguered Labour party can and will make great capital out of this piece of venom and insult to the unemployed. To gloat at the misfortune of others is terrible.
There is no one can make excuses of any kind for this moron as this person is not some silly teenager, the person is of an older generation who should have a damn side more sense.

[Sally Roberts]

Jimmy, there are people who make foolish comments on blogs in all parties and in none - as you amply illustrate.

[James]

1. Remember Smithson's Golden Rule:

"This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position"

2. Also remember, turnout is key. There are a lot of people who, when asked by a polling company who they support, will say 'Labour' by default. But whether they will all bother to walk up the rod to cast their vote for this sleazy and corrupt Government...is another matter. These are the people who, on the doorsteps at the moment, answer th voting intention question with words to the effect of "we normally vote Labour...(pause)...but...(rueful smile)"

3. >Steve@0109: "A very personal opinion based on what I hear on the doorstep and am told by people I meet. It's no more or less likely to be right than these polls though."

I love it! What a lot of money people waste on sophisticated opinion polls, when they are no more or less likely to be right that what voters on a few roads in a single part of the country tell a stranger who knocks on their door!

[Ross Warren]

"How much support do you think floating voters will give the Conservatives when they read on Boulton & Co’s blog site a Conservative ,yes a CONSERVATIVE!!
Laughing at people loosing their jobs."

Can we be certain that it was a Conservative and not a Labour member trying to play the uncaring Tory card? I do recall a few "types" who really did spout nasty views like this back in the days of M.T. but they were generally just kids playing up to an audience of right wingers. They are the same people who throw coins at beggars, or spit on vegetables on market stalls. Any member of the party found acting in this manner would very quickly find themselves expelled and quite right too. Under D.C. the One Nation thread is again finding its feet and although we are not suckers that the feckless and the lazy can manipulate, we will not be taking our national problems out on those, who by no fault of their own, become unemployed.

[Freddy]

@Ross Warren

Strongley agree with your post.

[Gary]

Conservatives please: Keep calm and carry on.

[Jimmy]

Posted by: Ross Warren | April 21, 2009 at 09:12

Can we be certain that it was a Conservative and not a Labour member trying to play the uncaring Tory card?

Ross 100% certain, go onto the site yourself and see for yourself.
The thread is Niall Cast 20th April. it was posted at 1.32 PM.

This person has posted umpteen on this site and if you read the persons post you would be left in no doubt that this person is a Conservative.

Seeing is believing, I do not fool that easily.

[Mike]

Far to much attention given to a single poll. Today's just announced IPSOS Mori poll shows a much worse situation for Labour but again we should not read too much into it.

[Ross Warren]

"This person has posted umpteen on this site and if you read the persons post you would be left in no doubt that this person is a Conservative"

I am as outraged as you are by such views.However we cannot be responsible for the uttering of every malcontent and trouble maker who attaches themselves to the Conservative party. I honestly believe that the vast majority of people in the party and who vote for the party would not agree with the tone of the poster. He/she comes across as being a very immature person.

[Peter Buss]

I may very well be wrong, but I just wonder whether most folk in the country have made up their minds. Our figure of 40+ seems to be pretty secure and the changes will be between Labour and Lib/Dems as the core vote for Labour consider whether to stay at home, stay with Labour or switch to the Lib Dems.

I do think its crucial the Party learns from Ken Clarke in how to talk about the need for reducing the PSBR.On Newsnight last night he was clear about it needing to happen but it would take time and must be done in a way which did not threaten the public service delivery, but that unless it happened then growth would be seriously retarded.He more than held his own with Paxman and a panel of "distinguished" economists/financiers. Plain speaking but also sensible, moderate, credible and caring - all at the same time.More of that sort of language might persuade more Labour voters who are fed up with their own Party to vote for us in the knowledge that we will not take it out on the poorest or treat health and education which they and most of us rely on as nothing more than accounting exercises.Cameron has exactly the same ability to communicate in this way as Ken and his absence from our TV screens this past week(for very understandable reasons) may well explain a bit why the lead is not larger.

Will be interesting to see the Mori Poll tonight.

[Freddy]

@Sally Roberts

Re anoraks. In this country area casual wear is de rigeur!

@Mike

So the ICM poll WAS an outlier then - my common sense told me that it couldn't be anything else.

@Everybody

One poster laughing at present unemployment levels is unlikely to sway votes, but if you think that he is a Conservative, write a comment telling him off!!!!!!!

[Cleethorpes Rock]

The definition of a rogue poll is one you disagree with.

Don't read too muchinto polls, but don't dismiss them either. Have a good budget. We're beating Labour on the economy. Make sure this continues. Our Target seats campaign and superior resources will win the day.

[Alan Carcas]

Oh dear! Haven't the events of the past week taught all us bloggers to take everything we read, and write, on the web with more than than just the proverbial pinch of salt. Especially as few of us have the ability, or the technical knowledge, to challenge the authenticity of the authors hiding behind a non-de-plume. Even if the name looks authentic.

In nearly sixty years of writing to the media I have never hidden my identity. What's an opinion worth if you are not prepared to put your real name to it? Zilch!

[Peter Buss]

Jimmy - I am not sure you ae ight in saying that the person in question is a Conservative. He is vitriolic against Labour and Brown, but he could well be a UKIPPER. Whatever he is a nasty piece of works in his scribblings and certainly represents nothing that is mainstream Conservatism. It is of course vital that we never even give the impression - let alone feel it - that bad economic news is really good news for us Tories. The mendacious Mandelson is already spinning that line and every Tory needs to be very alert to it

[Tristan Downing]

I think the main thing is for the leadership to get itself out there, flooding the air waves as much as possible. Air time, and policy. We as a party, especially the leadership, cannot afford to be quite. The public need to see us doing things, being statesman like, being strong.

If most of us here agree with this then can someone with influence relay it to CCHQ? Don't give Labour an inch on the budget or anything else.

[Neil_C]

This poll surely cannot have allowed for the fall-out from smeargate??
If true just confirms that we are hovering around 10% come what may, which not bad with a year to go!!

[Michael Parsons]

An addendum to the reply to Tristan's enquiry; the problem is not just that Labour safe seats are often smaller in electorate than Conservative seats, but also turnout is lower. For example, in Saffron Walden, the Conservative winner won more votes than ALL those cast in Hazel Blears' Salford, where turnout was only 42.4%. Short of telling the Boundary Commission to allocate seats according to votes cast, not electors, this is harder to compensate for.

[resident leftie]

No change in my prediction - Tory majority of 60-70, though Ashcroft's slush fund in the marginals might increase that.

[joshuwahwah]

'Remember - The Tories united will never be defeated!'

Freddy, One word, Europe......

[Jimmy]

Ross Warren | April 21, 2009 at 10:03

Ross that person is not young, this person has come up with things that only a 40 plus would know such as songs and different things from that era and earlier he/she is of my generation, trust me, I read him/her on a regular basis, plus a few other pointers have made me realise he/she thinks she is doing Conservatism a favour.
I can assure any doubters that this person is definately a Conservative, much as I would like to say differently and disown this obnoxious character.

Mocking the jobless is low.

[Jimmy]

One poster laughing at present unemployment levels is unlikely to sway votes, but if you think that he is a Conservative, write a comment telling him off!!!!!!!

Posted by: Freddy | April 21, 2009 at 10:26

Correct Freddy one poster laughing will not sway votes away but read carefully what Peter Buss has to say @ | April 21, 2009 at 10:29
Peter Buss | April 21, 2009

I agree with Peter.

"The mendacious Mandelson is already spinning that line and every Tory needs to be very alert to it"

As for posting to that particular blog-site, I find the site extremely offensive to people other than Conservatives by some Conservatives, others are more reasonable and polite,I would not give the time of day to the site let alone comment.

It does the Conservatives a great deal of harm when floating voters read some of the vitriolic comments on there by some Consevatives.

[Freddy]

@Jimmy

Thank you! You are right!

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

McBride, Draper, and 2 PPC selections!

[Neil_C]

The polls really have been fairly steady since we extended our lead again at the turn of the year. It appears that the kinds of leads we had last summer, cannot be replicated at present, perhaps because of the economy, and people being more careful with their voting intentions. Anybody else have any ideas why we have not been able to to get those high leads back again currently??

[David Robertson]

@Joseph S. Your basic premise is not entirely correct. The main factors contributing to Labour's electoral bonus are differential turnout and tactical voting. Differences in the size of electorates is probably worth only a dozen seats to them. The Consevatives' under-representation in Scotland is a result of the same third party squeeze that disadvantages the LibDems in England. There isn't an easy fix to this problem if you want to retain both FPTP and stable geographically 'natural' constituencies. The example of the Isle of Wight is illustrative - it is not the result of pro-Labour bias in drawing up boundaries but instead is the result of opposition from all three main parties there to the creation of a cross-Solent seat.