How the Conservative machine plans to win power for David Cameron

Peter Oborne writes today that a Tory victory is far from certain.  He does not believe that there is yet a groundswell of support for David Cameron in the way there was for Tony Blair in the mid-1990s.  He also thinks that the views of many Tories on, for example, fox hunting and the NHS - as expounded this week by Edward Garnier MP and Dan Hannan MEP - could yet frighten voters.

But The Telegraph suggests that current polling in marginal seats - where the party leads by 14% - points to a big Conservative victory.  The marginal seats data is part of a major Telegraph feature that profiles key elements of the Tory plan to ensure that victory IS delivered:

Framing the election as a choice between David Cameron and Gordon Brown: CCHQ is very confident that David Cameron is a huge political asset for the party.  "The election will be all about David v Gordon [Brown], Cameron will be plastered over everything we do," a source tells The Telegraph: "Not since the focus on Margaret Thatcher will you see a Conservative campaign so focused on one person."

A focus on middle-of-the-road swing voters: Citing the decision to return Ken Clarke to the frontbench and to accept Labour's 45p tax band The Telegraph quotes a strategist as saying "there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side. But it might put some voters off."

A focus on the three big issues of healthcare, education and the economy.

Different campaigns for different seats: As already revealed by ConservativeHome the party is not just focusing on geographical clusters of marginal seats but also on "seaside towns" and "new towns", for example.  Each cluster receives a different style of literature and a different messages are emphasised.

A capacity for immediate rebuttal: "In Coleshill in the West Midlands, a rapid response unit has been established with its own printing facility. It is able to immediately print "rebuttal" leaflets which can be delivered within hours. This was trialled with devastating effect when the Lib Dems attempted a dirty trick in last year's Henley by-election. If Labour airs a damaging political broadcast, the Conservatives should be able to have a leaflet rebutting the claims on doormats before breakfast the following morning."

The Conservative's "electoral board" meets once a week to discuss tactics. Chaired by George Osborne, the board also includes Andy Coulson; Stephen Gilbert, the chief of Lord Ashcroft's polling and seats operation; and Ed Llewellyn, David Cameron's chief-of-staff.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Viscount Crouchback]

Peter Oborne is absolutely wrong about fox hunting. It should be at the top of our list of priorities by some considerable distance. Nothing - NOTHING - is more important than an Englishman's liberty. Roger Scruton has written a marvellous article on this very point in the current issue of Standpoint.

This pandering to the masses is simply vile. When is Cameron going to start leading public opinion instead of appeasing it?

[Viscount Crouchback]

P.S. This line from the Telegraph's article says it all:

"Mr Cameron has been told by his strategists how the next election can be won "without principles""

[Sally Roberts]

Oborne is right to discourage hubris and I know on occasions I have become far too over-excited... The fact is that any victory has to be worked for and nothing is in the bag until 10 pm on Polling Day.

Tim, once again I really do counsel against revealing our hand! No self-respecting military strategist would give away the slightest morsel of information which could give aid and succour to the enemy and I was also taught to be cautious.

[Tim Montgomerie]

Fair point Sally but on this occasion I'm only summarising what CCHQ has briefed to The Telegraph.

[Sally Roberts]

That's fine Tim - I understand but the general warning remains... :-)

[HF]

A pity that the Merlin voting indicator software is 3rd rate compared to that which Labour and the Lib Dems use.

Maybe it will be there by May 2010 or 2014?

But who cares about the Volunteers as long as CCHQ think they are unimportant.

[Freddy]

Good news about the 14% lead in the marginals!

[Conserv-a-tory]

Oh no Viscount Crouchback, not fox hunting again!

There will be far more pressing issues for us to tackle when (as I hope) we get back into office and their are far more important issues for us to pay attention to in the run up to the General Election.

[Iain]

"there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side. But it might put some voters off." "

That makes the assumption they are 'on side' and not rapidly losing interest in the all strategy, no passion nor values game Cameron wants to play, and so walking off the pitch to find something else more to their liking than the left side loaded game Cameron is pursing. In addition it shouldn't be forgotten that the UKIP presence cost the Conservatives a significant number of seats, I heard 20. But anyway how can a self respecting political party not deal with immigration and the EU? Every problem we face as a country can be said to have its roots in these two issues, jobs, housing, environment, security....

[TRG Tory]

CCHQ are right to worry about Tories defecting to the LibDems rather than the BNP or UKIP at a General Election. This June it is harder to call but at the General Election that is the correct focus.

[Robert Eve]

Top of the list should be our speedy withdrawal from the EU.

Everything else is quite trivial.

[Sally Roberts]

"Oh no Viscount Crouchback, not fox hunting again!"

Agreed - I am sure His Lordship must have pressing matters on the Estate to deal with?

[rcs]

The EU has to be reformed or left. Hague seems to be making the right noises, but does ne really mean it?

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Viscount Crouchback is right that there is nothing more important than liberty- everything else we ove flows from that.

However, most voters do not see it that way. If he wants to get the Hunting Act repealed, he should acquaint himself with an organisation called Vote-OK ( www.vote-ok.co.uk), which is targeting anti-Hunting MPs by organising pro-Hunt supporters in marginal constituencies to campaign on a variety of issues.

I agree entirely with the strategy. The marginals are key. It's also pleasing to hear of the seaside towns initiative, which I'm sure will prove useful in constituencies such as my home town.

I still think the party needs to do more on expanding grassroots participation and fundraising. "Text-a-pound-Dump Brown" would be a start. They also need to start communicating the strategies to associations and directing no-hope seats towards piling their resources into marginals.

[DCMX]

I am surprised that schools, hospitals and the economy are the three big issues. I would have added crime and immigration to the policy mix.

[Anthony Scholefield]

If education healthcare and the economy are supposed to be the lead issues why dont we go the whole way and adopt 'schools n' hospitals'.
The Tory party leadership seems to think it can win an election without addressing the most important issues and will like Baldrick ony reveal its'cunning plan' to deal with these after it is elected.
I would suggest in the north there will be no swing to the Tories-just like 2005- but a swing to BNP and others.This northern indifference seems to be spreading into the Midlands. If so they are really in trouble.
They wont win votes by adopting the values of the metropolitan media elite who are in any case not going to vote for them

[Raj]

Fox hunting should be bottom of the priority list. Why? Because the current law is impossible to enforce so 99.9% of hunters can still enjoy their usual pastime. If we had dozens of people being convicted every year, fine it would require addressing. But that isn't the case.

There are other people who need helping now. If people who hunt need help it's through improving the economy, not stopping the Police arresting them.

The Tory party leadership seems to think it can win an election without addressing the most important issues and will like Baldrick ony reveal its'cunning plan' to deal with these after it is elected.

Anthony, it's called "during the election campaign". Why play Labour's game and allow them to adopt policies early on? Wait until the campaign starts (or is about to start as the Parliamentary term is drawing to a close) - much more sensible, unless the polls start falling away.

I would suggest in the north there will be no swing to the Tories-just like 2005

So you're saying that ALL the polling companies have got it wrong, yes? Sure.....

[David]

"He does not believe that there is yet a groundswell of support for David Cameron in the way there was for Tony Blair in the mid-1990s."

I've heard this before, and don't quite understand the point. It seems to suggest that the only way to win is to have a 179 seat majority.

[clive elliot]

If the hunting issue is important, a one-clause repeal bill could be put through Parliament in the first few days, while other measures are being prepared.

Need only take one day.

Could be free vote if wanted.

[Derek W. Buxton]

If Cameron wins, not guaranteed, he will inherit a economy far worse than any of his predecessors. This will mean harsh measures but he must make sure that they fall equally, at the moment it is the private sector and the poor who are paying. Having said that he must as a priority restore our freedoms by reigning in the police and all the other jobsworths being used to spy and fine us. Bring back the rule of law and respect the Bill of Rights. But, to do that he will first have to sort out the EU, he cannot pretend it does not exist, it does and it is not in our interest.

[radsatser]

"there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side. But it might put some voters off."

So you think traditional right wing voters are already on side do you, have none of you seen thursdays by-election result in Manchester (Moston Ward), where the Conservative vote haeomorraged going from a strong second place to fourth. The assumption that the Conservative party is the automatic choice for people to support as an alternative to Labour, if we don't get too controversial on policy. What arrogant stupidity.
Can you see the BNP below 23% from nothing!!!!!

Moston Ward Result
LAB 1,353 (2008 - 1551)
BNP 815 (23%) (1st time)
LIBDEM 696 (2008 - 398)
CON 558 (2008 - 936)
GREEN 74 (2008 - 246

[Mark Hudson]

The hunting u-turn is potentially more damaging than suggested. My other half (who stood in 2001 for the Conservatives in a marginal seat) has recently rejoined the Conservatives after 4 years away. I can tell you that this change of heart by Cameron sent her into orbit last week. There are very many people who hunt who took Cameron at his word that the ban that would be repealed. They form a far younger, more mobile and committed army of volunteers than the average band of geriatrics that comprises a local Conservative branch.

Bad tactics as well as bad politics.

[Alex Swanson]

there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side.

To call this arrogant and complacent . . well, the actual words do not exist to describe the contempt any honest person should have for such an attitude.

[michael mcgough]

"as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side."

who's side?

[Joseph S.]

We should all have learnt from 2005 that focussing on right wing areas tends not to work as a WHOLE election campaign but I agree strongly that they should not be ignored. One way to attack Labour in the North is to win former BNP supporters with a cohesive immigration strategy, and one way to win UKIP voters nationwide is through at least some form of appraoch on Europe(though I expect one may appear once the new European Parliament gorup is set up).

Everyone must remember that in elections principles are never priority anymore, nobody see's that much of a difference between the parties and one year in opposition won't convince them otherwise, do so in government.

In the meantime we must fight off the spin-smear campaign that will be launched by Campell and Mandelson.

We must win the election first, and then prepare the country for drastic chance, there must be a coherent ideology yes. Spending cuts now and Tax cuts in the LONG TERM.

Specifics don't help election campaigns in general, a nice few promises here and there though work extremely well.

(I think keeping the Inheritance Tax proposal is essential however as it keeps the ideological message of building a savers society)

[The Bishop swine]

" NOTHING - is more important than an Englishman's liberty" equality (where appropriate) fraternity !

" He also thinks that the views of many Tories on, for example, fox hunting and the NHS - as expounded this week by Edward Garnier MP and Dan Hannan MEP - could yet frighten voters."

A very real danger especially with so many loose cannons on the deck. Picture the poor fox torn apart, and then add some of the antisocial Tory commentators "humour" and we could easily scare the voter off. Talk of austerity and cuts, is off putting to a flock prepared to follow Blair so enthusiastically. we need to reward the grass roots and so we should continue with plans to remove some of the burden of death duty. Fox hunting should be high on our do list along with some relief for the pub trade and the smoker. Freedoms restored are vital counter weight to austerity measures.

[Gary]

Peter Oborne only says what he does to keep us on our toes. He previously warned Boris not to be complacent, he heeded the warning and won London.

[radsatser]

(I think keeping the Inheritance Tax proposal is essential however as it keeps the ideological message of building a savers society)
Posted by: Joseph S. | April 11, 2009 at 12:49

I agree with much of your general thinking Joseph, but where I diverge is when you seem to support the party policy of less emphasis on what you call right wing areas, yet support the Inheritance Tax Proposals which could well be argued are as right wing and ideologically based as any of the policies that cannot be talked about.
I would also question why you would perceive the EU as right wing when it is probably one of the few policies that trancends party loyalties. Personally I think the party is currently in a phase of ideological bankruptcy, prefering to try to be all things to all men simply to get elected.
It might work, but what will they do if it doesn't. Five more years of Labour, Five more years of parties like the BNP and UKIP to effectively seize the right of politics in this country. To many of us of the small 'c' persuasion, the party seems to be putting all its 'eggs in one basket' hoping that they will be perceived as the least worst alternative to Labour, naively believing the electorate has no choice but to vote for them. Politics is changing in this country, beacuse probably the most tolerant electorate in the democratic world has finally had enough of the cosy conspiracy of the three main parties, that have actively conspired against them in changing their country beyond recognition. If the Conservatives want to be part of the new politics, then at some point they will be forced to address the issues, or they will simply fade into irrelevance.

[Ross Warren]

"Oh no Viscount Crouchback, not fox hunting again!

There will be far more pressing issues for us to tackle when (as I hope) we get back into office and their are far more important issues for us to pay attention to in the run up to the General Election."

In some respects it is the most pressing issue. Not Fox hunting itself but an important raft of measures aimed at restoring the freedom of Englishmen. The death of the Hated ID card scheme a vote on Lisbon. These are the things that the Grass roots are insistent be in the manifesto.

[Steve Tierney]

>>there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side.<<

I'm lost for words. And that doesn't happen often.

[John Prendergast]

Viscount Crouchback should live up to his name and bend over, so I can enjoy kicking his backside.

That said, yes, we want a more libertarian life, this greater aim has little to do with inefficient pest control. We need to halt European interference at every turn. we need to get public service drones eliminated. We need to believe ourselves.

[David Parker]

[email protected],

"Wait until the campaign starts (or is about to start as the Parliamentary term is drawing to a close) - much more sensible, unless the polls start falling away."

That is just another example of the Cameron clique of professional politicians favouring tactics over principles.

Many people are genuinely confused about what Cameron's Conservatives really stand for upon a number of other issues as well as the EU.

Obviously, there is no need, at this stage, to go into the fine details of their proposed policies, but they should be prepared to disclose their priorities and the principles which they will apply to addressing these. There is little danger that their opponents would actually succeed in stealing these, since there is insufficient time before the GE to implement radical new ideas and the very fact that they had atttempted to steal published Tory policies would lay them open to the criticism that they had no policies of their own.
On the other hand, Cameron's coyness not only leaves him vulnerable to being pre-empted, by his opponents laying claim to policies which he has not yet disclosed, but also to accusations that the Conservatives themselves are the party which lacks policies.

[Philip]

I agree with a focus on education, healthcare and the economy - particularly the latter due to Labour making the recession worse for this country than it need have been due to their piling up unsustainable debt - and for future generations.

However as for "there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas..." I'm not sure because:

1) recent polls show a majority of electors feel we'd be better off out of the EU (perhaps they realise the cost at a time of economic difficulty), so a focus on the EU might not put voters off.

2) we need to be careful not to lose votes to ukip or other fringe parties - I think ukip could have costs us about 30 seats in 2005.

3) crime, security, law and order, are traditional 'right-wing' concerns, but are surely a concern of voters.

We need to think of the concerns of the nation as a whole, beyond the metropolitan liberal-left.

[sean]

Fox hunting was first raised as an issue in Parliment in 1947.

Why in heaven's name should anybody in their right mind still consider this to be an issue in the 21st.Century.

It is a barbaric sport with no useful purpose as nobody even makes use of the fox for either food or adornment.

If members of the Conservative party still consider the issue to be important it proves yet again how out of touch with the real world of poverty and deprivation they really are.

Heaven help the hopes of the Tory Party if they consider this wasteful destructive and brutal pass time to be of any interest whatsoever.

[sean]

The comments of "phillip" on April 11th.2009 are clear precise and entirely rational for any politician to consider.

We do have a problem however, we have the entire House of Commons agreeing to "fiscal stimulus" and "quantitive easing" as proposed by the Governor of the Bank of England.

Phrases which are newly invented and totally incomprehensibe to most people.

We have heard nothing from Cameron or anybody else, coming up with alternatives to what is now Internatioally agreed plans to "save the world" from economic ruin.

Whichever party takes office in the Next General election they face repayment of debt and collection of loans from bankers and car companies which may be irrecoverable.

What the country needs is a Government where there is no overall control and all politicians have to work in the interest of the electorate as a whole rathe thna th einterest of their own party and its own left or right wing agendas.

Taxation to repay debt is already being put in place on expenditure, rather than on income and it seems not unreasonable to me that anybody with an income in excess of £150,000 per annum shloud pay at least 50 percent income tax if not more. Pensioners and those on low incomes are already paying 20 percent on income over £9,000 and are epxected to survive.

Taxation will undoubtedly be the big issue fot he enxt election.

[MG]

Economy, education, health and crime are the key issues and the party is spot on to be focusing on those.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

Economy, education, health and crime are the key issues and the party is spot on to be focusing on those.

Posted by: MG | April 11, 2009 at 20:01

Good! What were the policies, I've forgotten?

[RobertCLondon]

As a non-Tory, I'm very glad to see everyone all over the show on what to focus on. And that is before you lot try to decide on a manifesto. What exactly are you going to DO about immigration, the EU (in, out, shake it all about?), the economy (more privatisation and deregulation anybody? Industrial policy, what's that?), education (oh, well maybe just a bit more privatisation, go on, why not?), transport (oh, that'll be more deregulation then), the environment (but that requires regulations...oops). Maybe just stick to hunting, eh?

The truth is there are no new ideas emanating from the Tory party that have any coherence and that fact is going to be laid brutally bare as the next year unfolds. Sorry, chaps!

[Geoffrey Woollard]

As a right-winger on most matters for more years than I care to recall, I have to say that Labour still has a lot going for it.

For example, under Tony Blair's leadership, the class warfare of old took a back seat. Also under Labour, civil partnerships were made lawful and have become accepted. And Labour members, with notable and noble assistance from some Conservatives, additionally ensured the passing of the anti-hunting Act. The latter outlawed the abominable 'sport' of hare-coursing, against which I have fought for many decades.

These reforms would not have been feasible under a Thatcher or a Major government but they are greatly to New Labour's credit and should not be forgotten by all Conservatives desirous of being elected or re-elected.