« Dan Hannan to address Spring Forum | Main | Pickles and Clarke marked down by Tory members »

Comments

Just heard David Buick, partner with BGC and regular financial commentator on Nick Ferrari's Breakfast Show on LBC be extremely cautious - AND correctly point out that Gordon Brown was the architect of many of the UK's economic woes during his time as Chancellor.
I hope our Shadow Treasury team will be making much of this over the weeks ahead.

Just look at the Jeff Randall article in the Telegraph in today's links for a dose of realism. The G20 will be quickly forgotten. The ongoing economic difficulties and who is truly responsible for them will not.

Given that it was Brown who designed the system that got us into this mess you cannot hold out much hope for his 'New World Order'.

It sounds more like an 80's pop band than a serious attempt to correct his ten year's of mistakes.

"No $1 trillion boost for the IMF and trade finance "

George Osbornwe should get the language right, and certainly not join in the BBC propaganda by calling the IMF money 'a boost', its not , as far as I can gather its an overdraft facility to be drawn on in case a country has an economic collapse.

Could any bounce at this time persuade the prize bottler to hold a snap election? I doubt it but it's got to be a possibility, especially if Labour are expecting heavy losses in the locals, which would surely kill off any remnants of this 'bounce'

I think that the BBC's euphoric coverage of this event, and their failure to STRESS that there is going to be NO agreed financial stimulus, is disgraceful!

Freddy, yes the BBC is attempting to call the IMF deal a stimulus.

Surely all the success of the G20 summit must be credited to the British Administration. We always manage State functions magnificently. Praise must be given to the Security forces, particularly the police who handled the large crowds brilliantly. The whole operation planning was excellent, including the welcome given by Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh which always adds a special touch of elegance. All the Prime Minister did was a to issue a few soundbites as usual for the press release and pose for photos!

You have to be slightly impressed that his attempted cover-up of his mistakes has reached G20 proportions, and that will be worth something in the polls - but the bigger the con, the more angry people will be with him when they twig.
I expect the budget will be another con which will give them a bit of a boost and for the week following it we'll see conservative/labour on even %age until the scandal in the budget small print hits and labour will plummet faster than a sheep trying to fly out of a tree.

Yes, the whole thing was a performance, not substance.

This is the most dangerous time for the Conservative Party. The Brown spin " Mr Wonderful" machine is working full pelt- the way Lord Mandleson subtley brought into the interviews last night the brilliance of the PM- is indicative of how the public are going to be brainwashed yet again into believing that it is only Brown that can bring us through this mess( never mind he created it)People are worried and Brown will play on this and the cling on to nurse story.

We must now have a concerted effort by all the front bench to get on every media possible and continue to push the truth. Brown's bankrupted Britain remains the slogan

Anyone recall when Europe led the world in GSM technology and made handsets in Britain and Germany ? Before the greedy governments auctioned licence spectrum (which BBC gets free) and slapped a $50 billion tax on an unproven 3G technology killing Europe's technological lead over Japan and China.

Well, these brains are now about to bet future taxes we have yet to pay on speculative gambles to keep the "weightless economy" of transactions-trading on the road.

"The Shadow Chancellor welcomed the summit's progress on expanding the IMF facility, increasing trade finance and on regulation"

Whereas any genuine free-marketeer would be calling for the abolition of the statist IMF, opposing corporate welfare (trade finance) and opposing unnecessary regulation. We should be aiming for the establishment of worldwide free trade and sound money.

There is no doubt that Brown worked very hard on the G20 summit and deserves credit for bringing so many world leaders to London. Obama - and perhaps the world - benefited from his contacts with the Russians and Chinese and it is to be hoped that his lead will start to restore confidence.
Brown though cannot get away from the fact that the UK is overindebted and that he was the direct cause of that, even though he claims that our debt only amounts to 43.6% of GDP. It does not!

No doubt the G20 has provided Brown with even more reason to retreat into his 'global solutions for global problems' mantra, even though the polls are showing that no-one cares about what's happening in other countries right now - they want action at home and that is simply not being delivered.

I'm with Sam Armstrong.
The Three Stooges of Cameron, Osborne and Clarke will just provide more Blair/Brownism.
I see no point in woolly headed WetCons getting into power just for the sake of it. Cameron, nice guy though he is, has no concept of how pissed off people like me are at their Westminster bubble approach. How could he show such poor judgement to bring back the buffoon Clarke, then not to oppose Quantitative Easing and now to support higher salaries for MPs, when most folk are grateful to have a job.
Those just wishing a nominally conservative party back in power are missing the point of democracy, which is to try to vote in those with integrity and competence, not just to help the Tories back in so they can pick up enhanced salaries.
Unfortunately, Brown needs to win again, with a much reduced majority, so that the country (England) can finally come to its senses and elect a proper Conservative Government, with David Davis and Hannan, to restore us to sound money and liberty.

"We must now have a concerted effort by all the front bench to get on every media possible and continue to push the truth"

Yes Brown has been allowed to describe this as a banking crisis, rather than what it is being a structural imbalance between countries, where we have all the deficits. The too clever by half banks filled in the gap between the two, recycling our deficits until they got credit crunched, but the start of all this was all the deficits Brown built up, and here the Spectator magazine has given us a picture of the true level of the deficits we have in giving a list of all the departments and Government services we would have to close down to clear the budget deficit, which is a truly horrifying picture, a picture the public would be able to grasp. So the Conservatives rather than talking about ,millions, billions, trillions, which is all becoming meaningless, they should look to describe the situation in terms people can understand.

Though the G20 summit was a magnificent achievement, it won't be enough for Brown to win an election, and the economic benefits will not be seen until after the election is held. It is, however, the triumph of the centre left after years of neo-con ideology which combined the worst excesses of the right with massive over-spending.

Osborne is an irrelevant intellectual pixie who will become chancellor by clinging on to Cameron's coat tails. Even the Tory party has better people on offer - Hague for example.

Brown is an intensely unpleasant man, however his bounce is totally dependent on how the economy recovers.

@Tim Montgomerie

Why assume there will be any bounce?

Yes ToryBlog.com, Brown is an intensely unpleasant man and both Cameron and Osbourne seem, superficially at least very pleasant men so we are ahead there. What Cameron and his little mate must do (well start to do) is strike hard at Brown's massively apparent failings, gross negligence and incompetence over the past years whilst being allowed, by them, to bask in a false aura of competence, PRUDENCE,(remember that one) and fiscal rectitude. Start shouting it from the housetops chaps and keep shouting and I may yet eat my words, which I would be happy to do, regarding your own seeming lack of ability, experience, competence, call it what you will. Come on, lets see you make your mark.

Why assume there will be any bounce?

Theoretically there might be none, but probability-wise everyone, apart from Labour trolls trying to dampen expecations so they can celebrate later and pretend they're now going to win, believes there will be some sort of a bounce.

Think about it. For the last few days it has been Brown, Brown, Brown, Brown and Obama, Brown, Brown, Brown, Brown and Obama again, on the news. Cameron has been cut out of it, apart from a brief outing on PMQs.

No bounce would be a catastrophic tragedy for Brown and Labour. This is one of their best cards at changing the voting trends.

Jack Iddon. What Cameron and Osborne want is policies. Policies win elections not negative campaigning.

Read Fraser Nelson's view on yesterday and you'll see Brown will be back on his backside by weekend!

What they need are policies without any doubt. They can't hang our chances on thin air and all but silence as the have been doing hoping Brown will do it all for them.
Let's just hope they have at least half a wit each, much though the seem to want to hide it and can put them both together.

It's too early to say in my opinion. Let's look at the polls in 2-3 months time.

[email protected]:49:

'No bounce would be a catastrophic tragedy for Brown and Labour'

That is true. I just get very annoyed when we're accused of being all spin. If half of what Fraser Nelson and BOM etc say is true, this communique is the heaviest spinning since C. Julius Caesar's 'The Gallic War'. :)

I'm sure we have policies ready to go - after all Cameron initiated the most wide-reaching policy review of any political party in my lifetime after he became leader. I'm sure they will be unveiled once the election is called. Any earlier and it allows Labour to do their usual 3-point plan on them (which has worked well for the last 15 years or so)

Step 1 - Rubbish them
Step 2 - Steal them
Step 3 - Implement some half-baked, watered-down copy of them

Best to keep our policies under-wraps for as long as possible

Step 3 - Implement some half-baked, watered-down copy of them

Don't forget to double the cost and make any legislation so vague as to not solve the intended problem but cause more work/hassle/cost for everyone else.

I hope you are right Paul D but policies kept under wraps are as useful as a chocolate teapot. I don't want to know they have been reviewed, whatever they were, I would like to know the outcome of the review and what they are. It takes time to sell policies and convince the electorate of their value. Sound policies will stand up for themselves and can only be be rubbished if they can't be confidently defended. Obviously this will give opportunity for the ideas thieves so DC and co had best get their timing right, although I don't think Brown can do anything but go full term now, he will never have a big enough bounce to overcome his morbid fear of defeat. So, not much clairvoyance called for on the part of DC. Just good judgment. Let's hope he can learn that art by then.

Raj: Think about it. For the last few days it has been Brown, Brown, Brown, Brown and Obama, Brown, Brown, Brown, Brown and Obama again, on the news. Cameron has been cut out of it, apart from a brief outing on PMQs.

No bounce would be a catastrophic tragedy for Brown and Labour. This is one of their best cards at changing the voting trends.

That's bang on the money. You'd expect some, transient, bounce for the Govmt - the question is how much and for how long, and what happens next.

Equally, over the course of the next year, we can expect to see some signs of economic recovery - the natural reaction to any recession, plus the automatic stabilisers, plus the banking bailout plus the special liquidity scheme plus the asset guarantee scheme plus the VAT cut plus quantitative easing are going to have some effect at some point.

That's when the Brown propaganda trumpets will go into overdrive. We just need to keep our nerve and explain our alternative analysis.


Polls go up and down. There may well be bounce for Brown over next few weeks, but will not last beyond that. Conservative party need to keep its cool and keep on campaigning hard.

Gary

if anything, there will be a flump - Brown and the G20 don't fool anyone on the High Street.
Most people who have spoken to me this week are dismissive re the effect of the G20 summit.

As with anything to do with Gordon Brown it is wiser to wait, read the small print and then react. He has always been a master at hiding bad issues behind bland words. You simply cannot ever take anything the man says at face value.

If their is a bounce then as he falls yet again, I get to bring my terrific dead cat, (sunbathing, really) back out. So can't be all bad!

The G20 Summit will be remembered for two special First Ladies - The Queen, and Michelle Obama. Anything else is pure candyfloss!

if anything, there will be a flump - Brown and the G20 don't fool anyone on the High Street.

Jane, don't write off the chances of the public being tricked by Labour spin especially given how the G20 was covered by the media. It's still more likely than not they will be fooled, if only for a while.

I predict a massive bounce of ooo let me think ... about 2 percentage points, bringing Conservative lead to 10 percentage points for about 2 weeks. Conservative lead back at plus 15 percentage points by June.

A lot will depend on how many NuLab sleeze stories this Sunday. If there are lots, then expect the bounce to be similar to that of a deceased moggy.

Quite right Raj. So much money has been pumped into the economy we may yet see a false dawn recovery. Brown will be hoping that the economy starts to improve over the next year. If he is lucky and things do start to look better, we will have our work cut out maintaining our current, rather narrow,lead. The next general election is certainly not in the bag yet, so be prepared for some hard campaigning. Lets hope the top table have a plan B. just in case. Any recovery should be painted as a false Dawn recovery because of the debt mountain that will follow from it.

What Brown will do is ride on the wave of this success. Perhaps a positive budget. Some good economic news in the summer and then an election in October.
If he as got any sense Brown as now got a path to success he should take it. The alternative is a Tory government and all the damage that will do to our public services.

I won't bother with further denigrating Gordon Brown 'superstar' as many have already otulined what a hollow triumph this is. Any bounce he receives will be purely on the back of a shallow, superficial and sycophantic media whose immaturity is displayed at its worst on such occasions as this and it won't last long.

Instead let's focus on a few other things, considering that the actual G20 achieved pretty much nothing new (See Fraser Nelson at the Speccie CH).

Not so long ago didn't Obama go into meltdown over the profligate conference spending of AIG or one of the other recipients of the generosity of the US people? Yet he gleefully comes to a similar pointless junket in the UK (the UK being as equally as broke as AIG) and seemingly the best reason to do so was to shake a few hands and meet the Queen. Some change he is then. Perhaps he will subsidise the 50-100 million that the poor British Taxpayer had to shell out to put on this glorified Obama roadshow?

Moving on we have now seen the shape of things to come where words such as 'kettling' will become a commonplace.

I am no supporter of the demonstrators but I was dismayed to see such authoritarian tactics employed by Jacqui Smith's police stormtroopers which could have contributed to the death of an individual and no doubt caused considerable distress for innocent bystanders and demonstrators alike. Smith should be sacked and Stephenson needs to be censured.

Oh and of course more celebrity nonsense with the media's obsession with the WAGs. A spate of this undermined our football. Please don't let it undermine our politics too. None of the WAGs are elected so what relevance do they have?

Denis Thatcher showed the right way to be. Stay out of the limelight and become a legend! IMO it would be a benefit to Mrs Brown and too us if she stayed out of the limelight.

All in all I couldn't give a Richard Timney about this week's proceedings and IMO it only publicises globally the failings of our dreadful profligate and hollow Prime Minister and his government.

I am not so sure that if there is another bounce it will be short lived. The reason is that the Labour Party and its publicity arms (the BBC and Channel4) will make sure that we are always portrayed as the do nothing party, while giving Brown all the exposure to good news.

This would mean that we will get in with a narrow majority.

My worry is that with all the new money being printed, inflation will rip by the end of next year (inflation lags the growth in money supply by about 15 months) - but unemployment will still be rising and Osborne will have his hands full. I only hope that Cameron will bring Redwood in.

The Shadow Chancellor welcomed the summit's progress on...regulation.

Staggeringly naive comment from Osborne.
Do we really think it good to have the French, and others, regulating the City of London?

If Brown had any sense, he would have gone through with the autumn '07 election that he had leaked to the media. He didn't because he spent thirteen years waiting for the job and wasn't about to risk it.
I remember the Prime Minister of thirty years ago, joking about it:
There was I, waiting at the altar.

No-one should be surprised at the Beeb's fawning adulation over the G20 summit. The News department has invested a vast amount of emotional capital in the New Labour project and isn't going to miss any opportunity to revive it. Given the presence of 'The Most Charismatic US President Since Kennedy' in town, all pretence at objectivity was bound to be thrown to the winds.
At the same time, though, they seemed to be wanting to whip up demos against the G20, which must have reflected badly on Our Great Leader and his star guest if they'd amounted to anything much.
But the broadcasting hours must be filled with pictures of something......
By the way, Super Blue it's 'There was I, waiting at the church'!

Malcolm Dunn and Paul D. are on the right
track, Cameron an Co., need to keep their cards close to the chest,until the election
is on, why give the opposition ideas to help
their cause, only falls rush in. I feel
confident the the likes of Cameron, Osborne
and Hague are well in command of whats needed to do if they get elected, and in my
opinion will be. The scene as l see it, the
G20 summit will as many have surmised, will
not effect the british public in any positive form, with unemployment, lost savings, poor pensions, one can go on, so
the next election, whenever that is, will
see large labour voting,going to the Lib/Dems and Ukip, thats my forecast, and
labour will be decimated, for their reliance on Brown the destroyer, they have
shot themselves in the foot, and payback time is looming, as a robbed pensioner, that will be my 2nd. VE day and l cannot wait.

Charlie

Mandelson let slip an interesting aside during his interview with Snow of Channel 4 news last evening. When speaking of the increased funding for the IMF and thus its enhanced importance, he said that there was no longer any stigma about approaching that organisation for assistance when a large-scale loan was needed. This was in response to a comment made by the former World Bank Chief Economist, speaking by satellite link from the USA and forecasting the likely approaches that would be made by E European countries with rocky economies "...and even Britain is in that category".
When Healey, then Chancellor in the 1970s, went to the IMF, the latter offered their loan contingent on the British Government making drastic government spending cuts and other similar draconian measures This spelt electoral death for Labour at the subsequent General Election. The united cry was "Who runs the economy now?" to which neither Healey nor PM Callaghan had a sufficiently weasel-worded reply.
So what can we expect in the coming weeks as our economy slides further down the pan? A plea for IMF assistance perhaps (without any domestic recriminations of course)

Who really thinks Brown is going to call an election? He's never thought much of democracy in the past. It will be a tough enough job dragging him to the polls next year.

A short-term bounce, a short-term popular budget and a June 4th election? It could be the only chance he's got.

John Bell. I agree. Brown as a chance now of doing a John Major and snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. He would be a fool not to take it.

Brown will get a bounce from this. Then he'll get another bounce from the forthcoming 'giveaway' budget.

Then I do think there will be a snap election. I personally think its his best bet. He could even win, if things go horribly 'right' for him in the short term.

The doubt in my mind is if he actually has the cohones to throw the dice. My bet would be on June this year. But I'm aware i'm in the minority. Most people think he is less brave. They could well be right.

To be fair, I agree that the G20 has been a success to a limited degree, at least at face value. Sadly though, few people in this country trust politicians any more and that is in large part down to Labour spin of both Bliar and Brown eras. So, few will believe the words until the action / delivery follows. The G20 could have promised free sweeties for Easter and few would believe them until they had the sweets in their hand, and of those, many would still believe it was a trick, that the sweets were false or would be taken away again; actual belief withheld until they consumed them and yes indeed, they tasted sweet. Such is the level of proof of politics required in today's jaded market.

Drop IHT (blame Labour) and focus on credit (or lack of it) to business, 8 health trusts even worse than staffs; deal with any expenses nightmares before they become a problem (and that means you Eric) and it should be a very short bounce.

Oh I forgot, you're all on holiday for two weeks. Probably counting your above inflation pay rise and absurd pension top-up. Want some easy votes and flatten Brown's bounce immediately? Announce unilaterally that no Conservative MPs will take up either salary or pension.

If GB calls an election in the next 2 weeks before Darling has to explain himself in the budget then you might have problems. Announce the pay freeze next week and then, the week after, a public friendly policy on expenses that Conservatives will observe with immediate effect; no more talk of consensus; lead. Keep politics alive over the break, kill the bounce, election in the bag.

If GB doesn't call an immediate election and the proof of the G20 pudding becomes the long waiting game to see if words mean action then there is one line that might take the shine off even if things start to pick up.

When Labour have been criticised for light touch regulation (if any) during the boom one a popular defence has been: "Well would the Tories have been any better? Would they have constrained the bubble? Hard to answer hypotheticals based on partial truth/worry.

In the same vein, I find myself asking this question. "How much more successful could this summit have been if, instead of our hugely despised and discredited PM, we could have put forward a new PM with a shiny new mandate from the people to manage this crisis? How much more confidence would the assurances obtained have created if our representative was not someone who had lied to us for 12 years and broken numerous previous promises?

It doesn't matter how well they answer it, you can trot it out again and again because we'll never know the answer. Even if the listener isn't swayed about missed benefits, at least he/she is reminded of the lies and spin.

Brown is not the problem. The Opposition is the problem. They could have gone to town on the lies and spin from Brown but continue to have no impact. Maybe Cameron is like TB. All smiles and no substance. The political elite are all the same. What choice do we have when an unelected PM with no mandate is aloowed to ruin us? What choice?

Brown and Mandleson are spinning like a washing machine on full cycle. They are desperate to hide his costly mistakes that caused this crisis in the first place. Brown's reckless and excessive borrowing has built up the biggest domestic debt in history has debilitated our country. His policies have done incalculable damage to the welfare and living standards of every citizen and stolen the retirement of many.

Forget the fancy explanations, Brown has ruined our pensions, ruined our savings, ruined our businesses, ruined our jobs and ruined our prospects of recovery. His fingerprints are all over this crisis, this crime scene. They can be traced back directly to Downing Street for the past 12 years.

No excuses, this man has done incalculable damage to our country. It is time to articulate his mistakes in a simple common language that everybody understands. The country has had enough of this dysfunctional PM and his jobsworth Ministers. Time to fight back, time for change.

B Garvie is absolutely correct:

"No excuses, this man has done incalculable damage to our country. It is time to articulate his mistakes in a simple common language that everybody understands".

If those who are predicting an election this year are also correct, we will suffer for having allowed Brown to get away with his false facts over the years about the level of inflation, unemployment and, particularly, the percentage of debt to GDP. His figures have consistently been much lower than the real ones and we have not really challenged them.

Wait until we are in government - perhaps with only a small majority - and the new leader of the Labour party will accuse us of presiding over unemployment of over 5 million, debt 195% of GDP etc.

Brown and this awful Labour Party must go. George Osbourne is much improved but when is he going for the jugular. The biggest danger is a False recovery built on more debt, the patient starts to walk only to fall again as inflation takes off.In reality a recovery now is a far bigger danger than a continued slide downward. Needed reforms have yet to be defined let alone implemented. You could say that the building blocks of the next boom have been laid but the foundation was not cut. I see a very real danger of an overheating economy quickly following on after a sharp recovery, inside two years we could be on the edge of a new and deeper crisis.Worse if Brown engineers it just right he will have a small window of opportunity in about 14 months time. We have to be ready to warn the people off complacency should a brief recovery start or appear to start.

Paul Johnston,

I suggest we ask Tom G. to sort the lyrics out - he surfed Callaghan's other speech for me,

Stephen

Brown the parrot, we all know the G20 was all down to Obama, he done all the work with his charm offensive, leaders are tripping over themselves to be seen with him.Brown couldn't organise a tea party,(not forget his wife) The sad thing was Brown got all the credit.Full coverage in the media with Obama all last week will give brown some bounce but as seen in the past as reality sets in the bounce will soon be deflated.
Its cringing to see brown relying on Obama for popularity, I presume then everytime browns ratings drop he will be flying off to the US see the great man? But its the election which counts, most people make up there minds duing the campaign, so unless Obama is standing alongside him the people will see him as a complete fraud, brown face to face with people on the ground???
(No dealt his spinners are on the phone now arranging more photo sessions in the future)

Whilst sycophant Brown was strutting his stuff at the G20 Conference getting his psychological fillip, thousands are still losing their jobs and hundreds of small and medium businesses closing. Simultaneously,Brown's Ministers were greedily filling their 'pockets' with tax payers money for second home allowances and inflated expenses.
To most ordinary people, this G20 was nothing more than a talking shop. No 'new' money promised, only previously agreed funding. Brown and Mandleson are working overtime trying to hide the facts and pretend this Conference was a defining moment in creating a new World order. They certainly achieved that. The French and Germans are calling the prudent financial tunes now. The IMF was granted an already agreed massive 'overdraft facility' which will probably be used to bail out our ailing British economy in the near future.
Brown's bounce will fade quickly like a fleeting shadow and the facts in the devilish detail will come out and demonstrate this Conference was more about saving this dysfunctional PM's reputation than solving the World financial system. It is certainly not another Bretton Woods.
Hopefully George Osborne can articulate this in simple terms that we,the electorate, will understand. Whilst millions lose their livelihoods, we need a 'Champion' to expose this Governments hypocricy and to represent us against this most discreditied of Governments.
The G20 was an expensive showboat aimed at meeting everyones hopes and aspirations. Unfortunately it only provided the most expensive photo opportunity for the spinning machine to wash away the mistakes of this dysfunctional PM.

Just a thought O Conservative Home bloggers - if you really want to defeat Brown - and assumming you're not already involved, as distinct from talking about it - volunteer to help your local candidate. This election, will be won on the doorstep, getting the Conservative message over to the majority who have never even heard of Conservative Home. Don't just talk, act!

"Brown as a chance now of doing a John Major and snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. He would be a fool not to take it." - "jackstone"

John Major won in 1992 by having the election at almost the last possible moment, which contradicts what you have also just said. So is Brown's best chance now or the Major strategy?

According to the media the world's economic problems were caused by the economic policies of President George Walker Bush.

In reality these policies were wild spending (No-Child-Left-Behind, the Medicare extention and all the other stuff) and more (not less) financial regulations.

To cure the alleged consequences of these polices, Mr Brown and so on have decided to.....

Increase government spending and regulations ever more.

The comments to this entry are closed.

#####here####

Categories

ConHome on Twitter

    follow me on Twitter

    Conservative blogs

    Today's public spending saving

    New on other blogs

    • Receive our daily email
      Enter your details below:
      Name:
      Email:
      Subscribe    
      Unsubscribe 

    • Tracker 2
    • Extreme Tracker