BPIX gives Tories 19% lead

BPIX is related to YouGov so the changes are compared to the most recent YouGov poll.

Less than an hour ago I reported a Sunday Telegraph survey with the Tories 17% ahead.

8.30am on Sunday 19th April

We now have more details of the BPIX poll:

• David Cameron wipes the floor with Gordon Brown on all but one measures of personal qualities.  Voters think he is stronger, more likeable, more honest, more trustworthy and more competent than the Prime Minister.  Brown is also seen as more out of touch, twice as sleazy and more interested in himself.  The only fly in the ointment for David Cameron is that by 30% to 29% voters survey by the Mail on Sunday/ BPIX see the Tory leader as more shallow than Brown.
• The Liberal Democrats are at 17%.
• 33% of voters think that Labour is MORE sleazy than the John Major Tories, 23% LESS sleazy. 32% say there is no difference.
• 25% say Brown's Downing Street operation is dirtier than Blair's.  Only 6% say it is not.
• 44% say Brown is a worse PM than Blair.  Just 10% say he is better.

More in the Mail on Sunday.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Martin Coxall]

Warning: BPIX are a bit of a junk pollster according to Political Betting luminaries.

[Domesday]

Blimey. Is -8% the biggest ever drop for a party from one poll to the next?

[Therese]

Brilliant! Brilliant! Brilliant!

Many, many signatures were gathered today in Littlehampton and Gosport calling on Brown to adopt our policies on raising pensioners' allowances by 2k and abolishing income tax on savings for basic rate taxpayers. Send a message to Gordon Brown? The responses were too rude to put on this site!

[Martin Day]

Labour Labour Labour - Out Out Out!

[Tim Montgomerie]

@Martin Coxall,

I'm not sure that's fair. I think BPIX are related to YouGov but I'm biased when it comes to YouGov!

[YMT]

I'll wait for the real yougov! what's with all these new pollsters?

[Morus]

BPIX is a pollster not registered with the BPC, and who don't release data. They subcontract the field work to YouGov, but apply their own weightings and filters. They only do polls for the Mail on Sunday.

The last BPIX poll was 1st November 2008, with Conservatives on 45%, Labour on 31%, and the Lib Dems on 13%.

I tend to dismiss BPIX as junk polling, but it seems in the same ballpark as the Marketing Sciences Ltd poll which I'm told will meet ICM's obligations to transparency.

A Tory lead in the high teens, and Labour not far above their minimum level of support in modern times. Majority of over 50, maybe as high as 100 seem likely if the election were tomorrow.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Excellent news!

Now, it's time to press home the alternative Conservative policies, both online and in the traditional media. In other words, capitalise on the growing success!

[BREAKING NEWS]

SEE GUIDO'S SITE

http://www.order-order.com/2009/04/maguire-helped-plan-red-rag/#comment-41047

MAGUIRE HELPED PLAN RED RAG!!!

[Freddy]

Hallelujah!Hallelujah!HALLELUJAH!

Made my week!

Bet the BBC and the Daily Mirror don't report these polls - but, judging by the coverage of Mahon's resignation on PM today, I think even the BBC might be getting sick of Brown!

BROWN is the worst PM this country has ever had! He is even worse than pipe smoking Harold!

[Morus]

For clarity, I think BPIX are a junk pollster, but that casts no aspertions on YouGov who are excellent - it's the weightings and filters that matter, rather than who asked the questions.

[Peter Buss]

Well, it seems that our support is now heading towards the mid 40's which in terms of the 3 Party syatem is pretty good.I guess its logical that if Labour voters do drift away they will tend to go Lib/Dem as we would be talking about their core support who are brought up to believe that we stand for "eating babies !"
Interesting sub poll from the DT issued earlier that namely 50% do NOT blame Brown for the culture in Downing Street. Did that surprise you Tim - did me, I must admit because the media in general including the BBc made much of McBride's close association with Brown.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

And the Labour General Secretary was involved to. Was that Labourlist launch breakfast the most costly danish pastry in history?

This story is a gift that just keeps on giving.

[BREAKING NEWS]

BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS

see Guidos blog

http://www.order-order.com/

News of the World press release below, full story here:

THE VILE website at the centre of the vicious plot to smear top Tories was set up with the help of the boss of the Labour Party, the News of the World can sensationally reveal today.

A new email shows that Labour’s General Secretary Ray Collins chaired a secret meeting to create the Red Rag website now ensnared in the Smeargate scandal.

The email’s existence links the dirty tricks site to the very TOP of the Labour Party.

[Freddy]

@BREAKING NEWS

Breathtaking news! That will mean at least another two weeks of Labour turmoil!!!!!

[Sally Roberts]

This is fantastic news and we can capitalise on it next weekend with our Spring Forum.

[Jonathan]

Ooh dear... poor things. Not good if that's true - mind you, it is NOTW - so it cold be completely false.

Great result... I wish in some ways that the BPIX would do some more polls because they tend to be rather positive. Depending on G.O's reaction to the budget this could well be sustained until party conference in October.

[Joseph S.]

We are now officially on a roll, Labour sleaze is mounting up by the week, if it isn't expenses then it's smears and wrongful stalinesque arrests.

New Labour is finished, let us hope the Conservative revolution is a right wing one.

[Nigel Kilminster]

This poll reminds me so much of the last year of John Majors' government. As in 1996/97, the longer Brown holds on, the worse the opinion polls will get. If he went to the country in June although Labour would lost, a hung parliment could still be likely. However, if Brown waits until June 2010 I expect this will no longer be the case. I am hoping history repeats itself and that the "time for a change" message will make enough voters in marginal seats vote Conservative.

[Matt Wright]

Canvassing results today and yesterday were good so maybe the polls are reflecting a further shift.

[JH]

To be fair to BPIX they have been pretty accurate in the past when predicting local elections

[Irfan Ahmed]

What is the Lib Dem result, can anyone give some info?

[Super Blue]

The timing of the General Election:

Sir Bob Worcester suggested 6 May next year. This is because the local elections are on that date and they could not go into a General election soon after bad local election results.

Whenever it happens, WE WILL BE READY!

[Jill, London]

Thank you BREAKING NEWS @ 21.20 – just checked out Guido’s story. Well, well, that explains Charlie Whelan public outburst the other day when he tried to throw a smokescreen onto the Conservatives. Presumably evidence was needed to link Whelan and his Dis-Unite Trade Union to place him too at the heart of “Smeargate”. And as for that ‘Red Rag’ [every pun intended] scribbler Kevin McGuire….

[RichardJ]

Don't pay too much attention to BPIX but nthis does mirror the other poll so it's probably fairly accurate.

No doubt we have benefitted from Labour's cockup (and more than I thought we would) but we really need to give people reasons to vote Tory rather than against Labour - otherwise the Lib Dems will benefit too.

[Freddy]

@Super Blue

The Tories united will never be defeated! If we are self disciplined we will win and win well!

[Mondeo Man]

Check out the Times story on Ed Balls!!! Murdoch is out to get them...

[gezmond007]

Bpix and Marketing Services , who are these and who set them up ?

[Patsy Sergeant]

Oh my! Oh my!! What fantastic news!

Did somebody once mention that 50% is the magic number from polls?

[ToryBoy85]

Who is BPIX? Who are all these new pollsters? Do we trust them?

Oh and- Awwwww Yeeeahhhhh- nearly 20%... score...

[FredrikI]

If Murdoch has abondoned New Labour then
Brown is finished....

[snegchui]

The Balls stuff is explosive if true. Ed Balls really was Labour's understated wunderkind :
"He then served as chief economic adviser to HM Treasury from 1999 to 2004, in which post he was once named the 'most powerful unelected person in Britain'.[" Then MP in 2005. On the grounds that History glorifies those who choose their battles wisely, he sidestepped Chancellor after Gordon, but in a good position to help out wifey.
This is like standing at the centre of Krakatoa. It should blow Labour apart. So many Ministers tried to edge out McBride, Balls seems to be about to devour his mentor to further his own ambition. The credibilty of being a governing party is just holed.
I will be most interested to see what the spin is on this.

[Jill, London]

To add to Mondeo Man’s post about a further update on “Smeargate” – Iain Dale’s Diary quotes tomorrow’s “The Sunday Times” – and now Ed Balls is also “fingered”.

“The Sunday Times” story starts: “ED BALLS, the schools secretary, used Damian McBride, the disgraced spin doctor, to smear ministerial rivals and advance his own ambitions, a Downing Street whistleblower has claimed. In an explosive new twist to the e-mail affair, a No 10 insider has revealed that Balls was the mastermind behind a “dark arts” operation by McBride to undermine colleagues. He claims the education secretary is running a destabilising “shadow operation” inside Downing Street to clear his path for the party leadership if Labour loses the next election.”
Link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6122756.ece

“Smeargate” is turning into a version of Agatha Christie’s “Murder on the Orient Express” – they all ‘did it’!

[Ad]

Guys simply saying: "I bet we don't see this on the BBC" is getting a bit tiring Not only because i support the BBC.

Big Big lead though and like many have said here a pretty huge drop for Labour. I am looking forward to the Lib Dem figure to see how much is going to the "other" parties.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I wouldn't discount the fact that we tend to be polling better in the marginals and that there will be a demoralising effect on the Labour foot soldiers.

The tendency of some Labour members not to fancy going door-to-door selling brand Brown could be worth a few extra seats.

The tendency for self-preservation may lead to hitherto safe Labour MPs retreating into their own seats to be absolutely sure they hold them, rather than offering mutual aid to nearby marginals.

There are factors at work here far beyond the simple question of applying Opinion Poll numbers to a swingometer.

[Freddy]

@Ad

Well, say what you like ITN have mentioned both polls and devoted quite a lot of time to Guido's allegations.

BUT the BBC didn't mention either poll, and their bit on Guido's allegations was very, very short.

This is strange as they are the state broadcasting corporation. This happens time and time again and may be the reason why so many on this website dislike the BBC.

[Patsy Sergeant]

"Smeargate" is turning into a version of Agatha Christie's "Murder on the Orient Express" - they all 'did '!

Jill, thats original! and I can't stop chuckling!

[eugene]

The BBC has reported one poll this year- the one where Labour did best and Tory worst (Tory lead 7 %). The story was all about how successful Brown was and how he is closing the poll gap.

One can only judge on the facts.The BBC appears to be a Labour front organisation (and their behaviour creates that appearance).Since it runs on money provided by supporters of all political parties and people who have no political interests at all, for that matter, that cannot be acceptable.

So at the moment, the BBC references seem right and proper- until they behave otherwise.

[Jill, London]

Thank you, Patsy. Just when “Smeargate” looked as if it was fading away like the end of a ‘soap opera’ – suddenly more characters appear ‘in the frame’!

[Richard]

The Tory's could scare the hell out of the BBC,say that before diigial switchover we will have a referendum on the license fee.

That will concentrate minds at the Communist HQ,AKA,BBC.

I honestly think the BBC should be split,either License fee for BBC programming only,TAXPYER FUNDED.

BBC News,subscription(after switchover)

ipayer show adverts before you watch,run by private company,that will show BBC content,costing taxpayer nothing.(NOW)

When did we accept that the BBC is a left-wing mouthpiece,we do not fund politics from the state in this country,the BBC is neutral or it has to get funding elsewhere.

[BREAKING NEWS]

The BBC hid the Balls story from view when the paper was shown and the review was done.
It was also not mentioned
QED
They are the Labour party.

[Gloy Plopwell]

Fabulous stupendous news!!! We Lib dems are going to over-take Labour, and then the Tories aswell this year. The Lib Dem cabinot is going to be appointed next year, with Lyne Featherstone as Chancellor, and it's very excriting. Wonderful.
A Lib Dem overall majority of 60-90 is inevtitable now.

[Simon]

I'm glad to see the Tories are opening up a good lead over the Brit loathing traitors of Nu Labour. However this is probably more to do with a loathing of the present regime, rather than an endorsement of Conservative policy, which, to be honest is hardly much different, except perhaps to those obsessed with micro politics.

Under the Tories, the colonisation of Britain by the Third World will still continue until such time as our indigenous culture, heritage, traditions, way of life, symbols, icons and Christian beliefs are a distant memory and gone forever.

And worse still, the slipping into a state of appeasing dhimmitude continues unchecked. Well it's not good enough. Many of us will not go quietly into the night.

[Alex Agius]

The Lib Dem figure is 17% - so says sky news while reporting this poll.

[Richard]

The thing is moaning about the BBC does no good,it is infested with left wingers,it is run by left wingers,for left wingers.

The answer is simple,i was watching the snooker on BBC2,it ended and i pressed the red button to carry on watching,i was still on the BBC2 channel,i could watch snooker,while BBC2 had other programs on it.

The reason i mention this is that,if we can do that with channels,think of what we can do with BBC NEWS 24.

BBC NEWS 24 is international,i say we use the same technology i used to carry on watching snooker,to make the BBC NEWS pay for itself by screening adverts for viewers outside UK borders.

How it would work is simple,while the UK weather & UK news slots were on,only of interest to UK viewers,the international audience could be watching adverts,hey presto!the BBC gets its funding eleswhere,and can not be so tied to the state.

Add this to the privitisation of iplayer the licence fee could be cut to around £50 per year.

More importantly the BBC should be made to use that reduced licence fee to make British programs,educational etc,for Brits by Brits,getting back to what it was supposed to do in the first place.non political.

[Simon]

ALEX AGIUS

The Lib Dhimmis are not a proper party.

[Comstock]

Well what do I say to this? That it is a rogue poll? Well the Telegraph one is saying similar.

I think we can rule out any election until the very last minute-i.e. June 2010. I hope Darling has a budget that will be popular......and another next year too.

It will be a travesty if Labour lose power just as they manage to solve the recession- which some commentators think they have http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/16/recession-over-david-miles-bank-of-england

[Gary]

A good sign but still a long way to go.

[Sally Roberts]

If we can get some good media coverage of Spring Forum next weekend (a tall order possibly?), I could see even better poll figures ensuing.

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown, for all his reported strength of character, simply does not have enough respect within is party to guarantee inner discipline. One would think, that with its backs against the wall, the Labour party would rally around the prime minister in a show of unity.

However all we see is Mr Mandelson doing his own thing, Jacqui Smith stumbling from one scandal to another and a clique of political advisors that run their own show. In contrast team Cameron is a team, while Mr Brown has lost the dressing room.

[Patsy Sergeant]

How 20% of people think that Brown is Honest and Trustworthy, I just don't know, except that my father always used to say - "There's one born every minute"!!

[Steve Foley]

I'll be in Scotland next week but like Sally I hope that the Spring Forum in Cheltenham is used a springboard by the Party leadership. To those attending, Enjoy!

[Ross Warren]

Like the Mail itself I treat anything from BPIX with more than a little scepticism. However, this is an encouraging poll. The leaders poll is altogether a different matter. With only 44% willing to describe that Nice D.C. as Likable, and almost as many believing him to be shallow, there is still a mountain to clime in terms of returning politics and politicians to some sort of respect in the public's eye. Of course we have just had a run of very nasty sleazy stories showing just what a shower some of our MP's are. At least D.C. is ahead in almost every measure that matters. Shallow though, Dave take note and come back with some very deep proposals.

[David Belchamber]

Hubris, ladies and gentlemen, is generally followed by nemesis. Just consider the front page of thew Sunday Mirror before we get too carried away with all this good news.

I only hope that David Cameron will act quickly and decisively, if there is any truth in the Mirror's story.

Also I would like Cameron to pledge that MPs will be paid expenses on the same basis as civil servants, a basis that is approved by HMRC. At the moment we cannot claim to be 'holier than thou' on this matter and we need to be able to do so.

[Paul D]

A bit like 1997 eh Comstock, when the recession was over, the economy was doing well but it did the government little good

[Comstock]

Could be, Paul D.... But obviously I'm hoping more for echoes of 1992. We shall see.....

[Chad Noble (ex ToryBlog.com)]

"Could be, Paul D.... But obviously I'm hoping more for echoes of 1992. We shall see.....

Your only chance of that Comstock is to get rid of Brown.

Perhaps the McBride episode has blunted Brown's poison smear machine enough to enable this to happen as any hint of smears will be blamed squarely him.

[bexie]

Who is still voting Zanulab after all this? you have to support slime, fraud and smears to vote for them

[Jack Evans]

Clegg loses his seat with this result.
I repeat:
NICK CLEGG LOSES HIS SEAT

That is historic.