A Tory majority of 170!

No comment :-)

Comments

[James Burdett]

Well Conservative share greater than Labour and LibDems combined. That has to be good.

[Will S]

Hehe, looks like people are busy digesting the budget.

[Working Class Tory]

:D 170 is the best lead so far methinks COME ON!!

[Bernard from Horsham]

;););)

The longer Gordo stays, the worse it gets, and the alternatives..... Harman LOL, Straw LOL,Purnell LOL, Reid, LOL, Balls OMG! Cooper Ditto... there are no alternatives, unless of course they choose the Prince of Darkness, when Labour would be down to 50 seats... ::

[Peter Buss]

Absolutely brilliant.

[Richard]

I have just heard Byers rip Brown a new one over 50p tax rate.

Frank Field on Sunday,did the same in the media over the PSBR.

There is definately rebellion in the air,SKY NEWS'byers attack,shows just how weak the PM is in his own party'

The Conservative Party needs to try everything to end this Labour nightmare,i really think it is time for the June Elections to be turned into a de-facto General Election campaign.

DC needs to call the people to treat the June elections as a referendum on the Government,he should call for a General Elections turnout.

If the turnout could be 50-60%,i think Brown will go before he is pushed.

[Will B]

Worrying trend developing. One hopes this won't go to Cameron's head, and more so.. the media's. I was happy with a projected 40 odd seat majority.

[Ben]

Gordo made sure there was no alternative! The guys managed to destroy his own party!

[Freddy]

What a wonderful poll! Thank goodness I am not a Labour supporter! A result like this must fill them with foreboding and despair!

DC has manoeuvred Brown and Co into an impossible position. The only problem is, that Labour may consider challenging Brown!

I say again, Labour are electorally DOOMED!

[Victor, NW Kent]

Very bad for the LibDems as well - looking at about 30 seats. So, why do they do so well in locals?

Right now we are looking at Labour slippage, not to the BNP, but to the Tories.

[Ross Warren]

I am just waiting for the Lib Dem's to push Labour into 3rd. Of course there is one possibility that could yet upset the apple cart. Labour might decide to ditch Brown. Saying that who have they got that could replace the great dictator and is credible? They have no obvious contender.A Tory majority of 170 might be just a little optimistic just ten days ago we where hovering around a 10-15% lead.I think this poll is the first one that really factors in the public's disgust at the awful admission of incompetence that was blatantly obvious in their budget. This poll yet again demonstrates the underlying volatility of modern political support. So its encouraging but lets not take the public for granted, that a NU-Labour trait we can ill afford.

[Paul G (formerly Comstock)]

"I was happy with a projected 40 odd seat majority."

That's proberbly what you will get. There will almost certainly be some swing back to the incumbacy as the prospect of change draws near. Even in 1997 we saw this.

[Sam R]

I believe Richard's (21.12) call, for DC to declare the local elections to be a form of referendum on whether or not Brown should go, is an excellent suggestion.
The way the discredited bunch are thrashing the country, another year of this and nothing will be left to salvage.
We should all push for every election statement between now and June to contain that message.

[Matt]

A good few days for the Party - and I am glad David was stressing the amount of work that still lies ahead, no hint of complacency and focus will be key in the next year.

[Richard]

Whats yet to come for Brown:

June Elections.(LOCAL & EURO)(NO COMMENT NEEDED)

July - MP's expenses published(Brown seems terrified,what does he already know?)

October Irish 2nd vote Lisbon Treaty,(BROWN IS POLITICAL TOAST WITH YES OR NO VOTE)

November pre-budget(They will have to admit they were wrong on growth & borrowing AGAIN!)

December more household retail names going to wall,following Woolies.

Also DEC,Unemployment will be 3m,not just may go to 3m(LABOUR ISN'T WORKING)

Death by a thousand cuts!

The fat lady is claering her throat.

[Omar Kader]

I think most people would like to see a change of government but do you really think its healthy for democracy for one part to hold such a large majority ? baring in mind when Labour won its landslide victory 12 years ago over 56% of the public snubbed them ?

[Arthur Burgess]

Victor NW Kent. If you would care to give me a ring via Hastings and Rye Association, I can enlighten you a bit more. I cut my teeth politically on beating he Lib-Dems.

[Bernard from Horsham]

The LD's will poll better at a GE one feels sure. Its the Labour number thats likely to suffer with a bit of Conservative slippage. The urge to get Labour out will affect all Labour marginals.

[Englander]

Can things get worse for Labour or have they bottomed out?

[Bernard from Horsham]

Victor NW Kent, are you the guy who used?? to post on the Adam Boulton blog. I gave up on it as it was full of trolls, dont know if it still is??? I cant even remember what tag I used on it, its that long ago.

[Felix Bungay]

Although these polls only go to solidify the idea of a conservative victory, I hope Cameron does not get a majority of over 100 for his first term. I think its healthy when governments have to listen to their backbenchers, and I'd to have the voices of David Davis, John Redwood and others to be drowned out.

[Jsheedycf]

It is good to see that the Conservatives are building on and maintaining a steady lead within the country that is representative of almost half the general public now.

Personally I would be happy with a massive majority as I believe we will be welcoming a lot of Thatcherite-Right Wingers into the party in the next general election. I don't believe all prospective candidates represent some form of "One Nation Revolution" we have capital punishment supporters on the A List for starters!

[Votedave]

This is good news. We seem, hopefully, to be getting back to the territory we were in from April-September last year. Labour richly deserve a hammering for what they have done to our country and I thumb my nose at them. Our economic message has sharpened. We are presenting ourselves as thrifty savers, not spendaholics.

But let us not be complacent. We must try to ensure that when it gets to late September, Gordon Brown doesn't make an "impressive" speech to party conference, and then be praised for his decisive action in halting the financial crisis and slashing our lead in half. How unjustified that looks now.

[Paul D]

ex-comstock - not necessarily. This has been done exhaustively on sites like politicalbetting and suggests that the campaigns for the last 40 years or so, irrespective of the government of the day, have shown swings to the Conservatives

If that continues, Labour are in a bit of bother

[Raj]

I always said the Tories shouldn't stop Labour shooting themselves in the foot...

[dcj]

Err... let's think about this.

45+17+26 = 88

Column 88??

That leaves a big chunk for the BNP to bid for. I am fighting a very marginal LibDem seat - solid working class former council estate; Labour doesn't do well here - and was alarmed to see BNP leaflets given out.

Labour's vote is going somewhere and it's not all coming to us. This could be a nasty portent for the future if we don't deliver (sorry, in NuLabSpeak "address the voters' concerns") when and if we're elected.

[Ricardos Ghost]

1. The BNP aren't the only other party. There's also SNP and Plaid Cymru (both now in government in Scotland and Wales respectively), RESPECT and her successors (maybe enjoying a renaissance given the 'failure' of capitalism), and whatever UKIP might enjoy as the European elections heat up.

2. I've been particularly heartened by the noises coming from Cameron lately. He's using Brown's unpopularity to announce some unpopular (but necessary) policies - particularly his plans to scale back tax credits for the middle classes. I never thought any political party would have the courage to announce it. Seems I hadn't counted on Cameron.

[DANIELLE]

This is a fantastic poll for us, yipee!!!!

BTW, can we really go on as a functioning Country on the World stage with another 12 months of Brown leading HM Government? Today we suffered the humiliation of having a British Prime Minister snubbed by Pakistan's President. Just think about that for one moment, we Britain are even being snubbed by Pakistan! This would never have happened under Blair. Say what you like about the man but he had authority. He was mocked for being a Bush poodle but other leaders always knew Blair had the backing of Washington, and treated him accordingly. As Thatcher once said Labour have brought this Country LOW.

[oldrightie]

This is a meltdown for Labour. At a General Election many Labour supporters will vote Liberal before any other choice. I still believe a healthy 100+ majority for us and a possible Liberal opposition. Then if we screw up a move to a Liberal vote is easier to protest with than to that bag of rubbish that is socialism.

[another richard]

ex-Comstock

As Paul D says and also evidence suggests that the Conservatives are doing better in the marginals and that tactical voting will be anti-Labour rather than anti-Conservative as previously.

The full effect of the recession will not hit for some months yet either.

[Gary]

Very pleasing, but all those who show even the slightest hint of triumphalism or complacency want their heads knocking together!

Given what we will inherit if we win, there is very little to look forward to other than the end of Gordo and a period of strife and economic reconstruction :/

[Norfolk Political Anorak]

Well this is 'meltdown' for Brown and his followers. Can't wait to see his face on election night. Maybe he will do a disappearing act again. Still I shall be up all night and I have already told my husband that we will be living on 'take aways' for a least a few days. I do not want to miss a moment of this. I have waited since 1997 for the tide to turn. Good luck to Mr.Cameron.

[pp]

Great stuff - certainly celebrate.

But start detaching this from EU election results.

The EU is a sideshow and the tories are likely to be stuffed (and boy, have they worked hard for such a result) - but don't let that pollute the positive line on the national position.

[Mark Williams]

Posted by: Richard
"The fat lady is claering her throat."

I think you'll find she was on the telly a couple of weeks ago.

I sense that there is a realc ollapse in support for Labour. Whatever happens a lot of 2005 Labour voters know that voting for Brown nexr year will never be the solution to their problems and will either not vote or vote Conservative (on the basis that the Lib Dems could never win).

[George Kaplan]

Joshuwahwah? Are you there? Or are you still crying into your red flag at this pol/slash the damage your lot have done to Britain AGAIN?

[Mark Williams]

If there is one crumb of comfort for Labour it will be that Lord Ashdown's cash could have been spent in the wrong constituencies. The seats that were marginal are probably strong Conservative now and the new marginals may have not been targetted by CCHQ.

[RichardJ]

Good news of course but can we cut down on the smugness? It's very unbecoming. I also seem to recall that ComRes aren't the most reliable of pollsters.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

The effect on the morale of Labour activists cannot be overstated. How many of the many decent Labour members are going to want to defend Gordon on the doorstep?

The boost given to Tory activists and the scent of victory will encourage more of them out into the campagn than in previous years.

We are also much better organised and funded and are streets ahead of Labour on internet and new media campaigning. (A little scheme of mine from a few weeks ago has been pushed up the chain to the party's head of digital for consideration)

[Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter]

This is very deppresing news. Gordon Brown mite not be everyone's favourite PM but he's better than Thachter was any day. I thought the 50p tax on the toffs would be a vote winner. Stupid, ungrateful public.

[Freddy]

@Cleethorpes Rock

Great news about your scheme!

[Mr Angry]

To be of any real portent we need to see poll leads like this across all pollsters and across at least a three month spread in time.

However it is still very nice to see it here and now.

[Mark]

@ Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter

Not wanting to rain on your parade or anything but it are some points worth remembering...

1) The regularly repeated fact that Margaret Thatcher was never defeated at the ballot box - people might have wildly differing opinions about her, but she was never thrown out by the electorate

2) Notwithstanding that fact, she left office 18yrs 5mths ago today

3) Labour have been in Government for 65% of the time since she left - and what a great job they've made of things

4) People didn't like the 50p tax hike because they seem to have seen it for what it was - a cynical and narrow-minded partisan point-scoring exercise - just when we need the Government to act in everyone's interest, they were most interested in scoring cheap political points

5) Even if people had liked the 50% tax, I suspect the fact that we can look ahead and see that the children of children who aren't even born yet, will be paying for the Government debt mountain for generations might have put a few people off Labour. Perhaps the "ungrateful public" aren't actually "Stupid"?!

Yours in comradeship

[AJJM]

Always one to rain on the parade is this really a good thing? If people thought on the eve of the election that there was a chance Gordon could get in, they may be more inclined to vote Tory. If however, they think the Tories will get in regardless, they might vote elsewhere to keep our majority down.

Bar that, fantastic. Hope it is like this until the results are in!

[Steve Tierney]

Great news, but I've been predicting 150+ majority for ages anyway, so im not surprised. We need to push and push and not let up for a moment, because Labour need to be absolutely crushed.

As to the person who said "is it healthy to have such a large majority".... its not healthy... its VITAL. Such enormous steps will need to be taken that without a massive majority there will be a chance of not getting the job done. And make no mistake, this is the most serious situation we've seen in our lifetime.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Yes, DANIELLE @ 22.18 - 'PM snubbed by Pakistan's President', when that begins to happen the more grown-up members of the public realise how demeaning it is for this country.

Only the childish commenters who trot out the '50p tax on toffs' crap, and then add 'Stupid, ungrateful public', would realise that a Prime Minister losing respect is more than important than the politics of envy, and squeezing the rich! WHICH rich???

As Michael Caine (film actor) said - he will go back to the US. I can imagine 'socialist worker and MU...' saying :'Well good riddance', which would show ....
because the 'rich' people you are so jealous of will NOT pay the tax - you can all about it in many newspapers!!!!!

The people who will be affected, will be people who quite likely live near you, who work in small to medium businesses, where the boss just comes within that category, and doesn't make enormous profits, so will either go to the wall or get rid of staff, or both.

No doubt Mr. socialist worker - YOU work in the public sector!

[Patsy Sergeant]

Will B @ 21.14 - 'One hopes that this won't go to Cameron's head...'

I should think it is highly unlikely that David Cameron would let Poll figures go to his head. He strikes me as a much more focused man than that. He has never given the impression that he wants to 'save the world'!! And I don't believe he wants power for powers sake either!!
He has also spent two years having everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him by Brown and his cronies, so I think he has demonstrated that he has quite a strong sense of purpose!

[Mark]

@ Mark Williams (23:07)

As a Conservative, I find a "crumb of comfort" in knowing that the former leader of the LibDems has started funding our target seats campaigns.

Or, perhaps you meant Lord AshCROFT?

(Apologies for pedantry)

[Dual Citizen]

@dcj

The good thing about this poll is that the Conservatives are up 5, while Lab and LD are down a combined 3. This means we also gained 2% on "others".

[Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter]

Mark and Patsy -
Yes I a work in the public sector and I do a good job! I am glad that Labour is going to the left, at last throwing the new label in the bin! I believe in high taxes for the toffs, windfall taxes on fatcat bankers profits and the rich. 50p tax for the Michael Caine's of this world is a good idea, and anyone earning more than 35,000 a year should pay 45p tax and use that money to increase benefits for the working class. I would scrap trident, scrap all selection in schools which is eliteist, I am anti-hunting (can't stand the hunt toffs in their polluting 4x4's), anti-Daily Mail ( I read the Mirror), and a secularist.

I believe in the nationalisation of business (capitalism has failed) in order to boost the economy, based on workers' co-operatives and state-owned busniesses. I am anti-monarchy (she's not my queen), pro-europe (the sooner we get the Euro and have One Europe the better it will be for us all), and I am pro-regional government which means more democracy. My heroes are Karl Marx, Michael Foot, Scargill, Kinnock, Ken Livingstone and Prescott. Can't stand right wingers like Thatcher, Cameron, Redwood, Boris, Churchill and Tebbit.

[Silent Hunter]

Socialist worker (yeah I bet) etc:

You forgot to add to your long list of 'achievements' -
"Excellent recruiting sergeant for the Conservative Party".

Give that man a second home!

Oh what the hell! - Let's go the "Full Labour Hog" - give him 3 homes and charge it to the PBT (Poor Bloody Taxpayer)

[Mark]

Socialist

I don't doubt that you do an excellent job in your work for the public sector, just like many who do. I would hope though, that even you would agree that "non-jobs" are rife in the sector and that this does nothing to improve public perception.

I disagree with you on tax. I don't think "class-war" is a good system on which to base taxation - because it is easily corrupted. I would personally support a flat-rate of tax at 15-20% for anyone earning more than £20,000 per year - with everyone under that amount being taken out of direct taxation altogether. I suspect that the revenues would be higher and the savings which could be achieved by reducing the bureaucracy and size of HMRC would be huge.

I would also scrap the Trident programme - or at the very least, postpone it until we have a more solid economy.

I agree with you on fox-hunting and I too hate the Mail. And, whilst I am a Christian (which is a matter of personal faith), I don't support selection in schools either.

On nationalisation, I would ask you to consider the recent nationalisations of banks which have been costly and completely pointless.

I am not anti-Europe. If you have a proper conversation with most of us Tories, you'll find that we're actually quite a democratic bunch and we object mainly to the lack of democracy in the current structure of the EU - not to mention the huge waste (moving between Brussels ans Strasbourg for example)and overweaning diktats from appointees and "place-men" which overrule our own Parliament and Courts.

I'm not pro-regional-government - I'm pro-LOCAL-government, which by its nature is closer to those it serves and so more accountable. In my opinion, regional government strips power from local and that is unacceptable.

And, for what its worth... Marx was an idealist whose system would be wonderful if it could be made to work - unfortunately human nature means that it simply couldn't - you will always have those who want to be "better" than those around them.

Livingstone and Prescott, for all that I might dislike and diagree with their politics, have earned my respect by not selling out on (most of) their principles.

I'm not a fan of Redwood or Tebbit. Boris is likeable and seems to be doing a good job in London. I like David Cameron and it seems a bit unfair to put him in the same bracket as Tebbit.

Churchill wasn't really right-wing... you might have missed it but he was the most vocal and vociferous opponent of the Nazi's (who certainly were 'right-wing').

And, as for Margaret Thatcher, I was 10 years old when she left office. I hardly remember her. I can neither compliment her leadership, nor criticise it.

So, all in all, I hope that you can accept that whilst we're different in many ways, there are many things we can agree on. We will always disagree on some points, but imagine what a dull and unchanging world we'd live in if we all agreed all of the time.

Kind regards
Mark

[Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter]

To Socialist Worker - Many of Gordon Brown's problems are his own silly fault.

1 - He cowardly refused to call an election in 2007 when he was 12 points ahead.

2 - He appointed Damian McBride to run a dirty tricks operation inside No.10.

3 - He wobbled on the 10p tax threshold for the low paid.

4 - He broke Labour's pledge not to raise the top rate of income tax in a dishonest budget.

5 - He thought he was being clever with his bizarre WebGordon announcement on MPs' expenses without consulting either MPs in his own party or the Opposition.

Not only all of that, but he's also disgracefully, poisoned the well for those 'nasty Tories' to inherit next May. So in two years’ time we may be bust, begging for IMF money and watching Britain turn into a banana republic, Labour in opposition will say 'Its all the Tories fault.' I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

And your hero is Neil 'The Windbag' Kinnock and Karl Marx? That just says it all about your blinkered views. There is a place where they have tried all the stuff you want SW, it was called the Soviet Union and what a great success that turned out to be. So you may wish we lived in a people's republic of Britain where the rich and right thinking people are hung from the nearest lamposts. But the majority of people do not, as the opinion polls suggest, so you can keep waving that red flag and fire cheapshots at Margaret Thachter all day long but you are fighting yesterday's class battles, its 2009 not the 1970's, move on and stop being an idiot.

[denverthen]

(The real) Socialist worker and Man U fan said: "My heroes are Karl Marx..." etc.

I spent two (very boring fascinating) years studying Marxist 'philosophy' as part of my degree.

Seeing as he's your hero and all, I was just wondering - what's your favourite Marxist quote?

[Will B]

Patsy Sergent @ 00:26 - 'I should think it is highly unlikely that David Cameron would let Poll figures go to his head.'

As I said, I hope not. I've a lot of respect for Cameron and what he's done over the last number of years. Far from lightweight, he's proved to be the most sound leader that the party has had for a -very- long time.

[Truest Blue]

Mark @ 01:41

Nazis = socialist the clue being in the title "National Socialists."

The remainder in reading their manifesto!

[MG]

Soc worker and Man U supporter - please can we have more of his like, it would finish Labour for ever!

[Sally Roberts]

Seems to me that Socialist Worker and Man U Supporter is such an "Old Lab" stereotype that it is either one of our people taking the mickey or it is a very clever Labour Troll trying to get a knee-jerk "rise" out of us. Either way, probably best ignored. Oh and I don't expect he/she is an expert on Marx either!!

[Mark]

Truest Blue

I don't want a big debate on the finer points of positioning on a two dimensional "left-right" axis of politics.

You will notice that I was replying to the comment made about Churchill by Socialist and you will probably have guessed that he/she is likely to be left wing and to regard the Nazi's as "of the right".

Whilst I do not agree that they are of either left or right (they can be easily placed on the extreme, authoritarian side, of both wings), I used them to illustrate that to impugne the name of Churchill in the way it was, is unfair - perhaps I was clumsy in my phrasing but it was 01:41am!

ANYWAY, not dicsussing this anymore.

Great news on the polls and it's good to see some consistency in the results, but we're potentially a long way from the GE yet, so lets avoid any triumphalism until its beyond doubt (i.e. once David is on his way back from Buck House, having kissed-hands)

[John Moss]

dcj,

In Barking in 2006 where the BNP secured eleven seats, the Councils did som epolling to find out why. The top answer was, "because there wasn't a Tory to vote for".

Get out there!

[Malcolm Dunn]

Can't think what's worse ,being a socialist or a Man Utd supporter. On balance I think it might be the Man Utd supporter.Eh Mr Montgomerie?!
An excellent poll of course but I'm glad nobody yet really believes it's in the bag.

[John Moss]

Can I just say that I am a self-employed Tory and a Man Utd supporter. Red shirt does not equal red heart!

And I always thought "socialist worker" was an oxymoron!

[West Midlands Activist]

"That's proberbly what you will get. There will almost certainly be some swing back to the incumbacy as the prospect of change draws near. Even in 1997 we saw this." (Paul G (formerly Comstock) | April 27, 2009 at 21:29 )

Actually Paul, interestingly, there is no evidence that there is ever a swing back to Labour when they are the incumbent.

The old 'mid term blues' and swing back to the government truism only ever held true for Conservative governments.

In fact, in 2001 and 2005, there was evidence of a small swing back TO THE CONSERVATIVES once again!

Smithson has discussed this regularly on his politcalbetting blog. 'll try to find a link to the relevant article.

[Victor, NW Kent]

Arthur Burgess

Thank you for the invitation. I will contact you as suggested but please be aware that I am not a Conservative Party activist, just a concerned voter.

Bernard from Horsham

Bernard - I am the very same Victor who still does post on Boulton & Co.
It is not really a thinking man's blog but it is quite widely read. It is currently suffering from a Labour troll infestation by a paid Labour official who we have just outed.
I felt it my duty to post there since when I started it was ruled by 3 fervent Labour supporters and totally one-sided.

Keep well.

[johnC]

'Red shirt does not equal red heart!'

Tell that to your manager who has openly endorsed Labour and appeared in party propaganda.

City to beat you again next week.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Brilliant news! The end is nigh for this Labour Government! Indeed, only the Conservative Party has the potential to rescue our country from the devastating grip of socialism.

[Felixstowe Fiddler]

Cut the euphoria and remember the Masonic reply to a discrete inquiry: "I was taught to be cautious."

[Marian]

"Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter "

Come on which of the regulars is pretending to be this SWP retard? Nobody is that stereotypical even in the SWP. Somebody is pulling our legs.

[Marian]

I see Sally has twigged as well. Very funny I almost wet myself with the list of heroes.

[Ross Warren]

" I think most people would like to see a change of government but do you really think its healthy for democracy for one part to hold such a large majority ? baring in mind when Labour won its landslide victory 12 years ago over 56% of the public snubbed them ?"

This post seems to have been missed but raises an important point.The good thing about First past the post is that it returns governments with decent majority (more often than not) However, its a distortion of the real voting pattern of the public. I cannot recall a government of this nation elected with even 50% of the vote. Is such a skewed system democratic? Can a Government that has less than 50% of the electorate behind it really claim to have a mandate when so many are expressly against them? This issue has been around all of my political life and used to be very important to the Liberals who are often squeezed by our current FPTP system. Certainly if we switched to a form of proportional representation it would have a very big impact on our Parliament. Would that be more democratic? I honestly don't know the answer, although back in the day when I was sitting my Government and politics O'leval I argued that the FPTP system should be replaced with something that produces a more representative house. These days I am not so certain, as minority governments around the world struggle to get difficult reforms through.FPTP produces strong governments more often than not. Such governments can get things done without having to negotiate with other parties all the time. In the case of a very large Majority it is the duty of the ruling party to act as its own opposition, which is often the function of the Lords. Labour have undermined the House of Lords so we will have no choice but to wait and see how things will work should we be returned with a very large landslide majority.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Lets just get a workable majority first!

[Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter]

You can use all rigth wing bigoted insults you like. But there is a long way to go until the next election, and by then the people will have come to their sensis.

As John Prescott said recently "This time next year, the people will come home to Labour."

[Sally Roberts]

I think Socialist Worker is even worse at spelling than Jack Stone!

[Steve Tierney]

@denverthen & Socialist Worker:

There are some really good Karl Marx quotes which are quite pertinent to the state of government right now.

"Communism may be summed up in one sentence. The abolition of private property."

Or the Prime Ministers probable favourite:-
"Democracy is the road to socialism."

Or my personal favourite for the prime minister:-
"Go on, get out. Last words are for fools who haven't said enough."

[John Prescott]

If you recall, I also said that Lay-bour could give out free secretaries to everyone so that we could produce the next generation of socialists together. Just don't tell Mrs. P, eh?

[dcj]

So how long has JP been able to use a keyboard without punching it?

[Yet Another Anon]

I thought the 50p tax on the toffs would be a vote winner. Stupid, ungrateful public.
The 50p tax rate is a terrible idea, from the perspective of trying to raise revenue, and from an economic perspective because it encourages a brain drain to low tax regimes, and also increased tax avoidance and evasion and that will both reduce entrepreneurial spirit and produce certainly no higher revenue.

However just because something is a bad idea doesn't mean that it won't be politically popular, and indeed most of those supporting the 50p tax rate are doing so because they do believe it will raise extra revenue, democracy is not the universal panacaea that many Liberals, Fabians etc... believe it is.

I don't pay much store in opinion polls, given negative media against a particular party then you expect their opinion poll figures to go down, follow this line though and you end up forecasting what the opinion polls will be, rather than what the actual General Election result will be.

A lot of the time when a particular party becomes stigmatised by the press then they tend to poll lower than their actual position.

In 1951 a tired Labour Government that had largely ran out of ideas called a General Election long before they needed to and in a situation when everyone expected them to lose, in terms of seats they did lose - the Conservatives got a majority of 16, but in the Popular Vote they got more votes than the Conservatives (which was very much contrary to expectations) and the highest Vote on any measure that Labour has ever had, the highest proportion of those eligible to vote to vote for any one party in any General Election since back in the 19th century.

Then in the 1950s the Conservatives were frequently in difficulties and yet increased their majorities in 1955 and 1959.

1964 was supposedly going to be a Labour landslide, and yet in the end it was very close in terms of votes and Labour won largely because of a drop in turnout among Conservative supporters.

Labour was then into difficulties and yet increased their majority in 1966.

In the late 1960s Labour had huge losses in Council Elections, polls against them and yet did recover, the polls then said they would win the General Election and they lost in 1970.

Then in the early 1970s at first it was thought Labour was on course for a landslide, then that Edward Heath would win comfortably, when the results came in, to the surprise of everyone going off the polls both main party votes had collapsed with Labour having enough seats to form a majority.

Then in October 1974 Labour won a majority, but not the one that had been expected.

1979, following huge inflation, rising unemployment, huge council losses for Labour, the Winter of Discontent and going to the IMF and going into the campaign the opinion polls showing huge leads for the Conservative Party, the final result was far closer than that forecast in the polls and the Labour vote actually was about the same as it had been in the two 1974 General Elections.

Then in the early 1980s, at one point Labour under Michael Foot was put at 50% in the Opinion Polls, going into the General Election there had been Council Elections in the Spring of 1983 in which Labour got 35% of the Popular Vote and yet their vote collapsed to 27.5% of the Popular Vote.

Then again in 1985-86 all the talk was of a Hung Parliament, the Conservatives then won in 1987, although not by as much as the Opinion Polls had been saying in the Spring.

Then initially all the talk was that Labour couldn't win, that the Conservatives were the permanent government and Labour the permanent Official Opposition, then shortly after the Conservatives were written off and Labour was supposedly virtually assurred of being able to form a government, even during the election campaign itself, but it didn't work out that way. At times in 1989-90 there were polls giving Labour over 50% of the vote.

Then throughout the rest of the 1990s there were opinion polls hugely inflating the Labour position and showing the Conservative position absurdly low - I doubt that there is any time since the mid 1950s at which Labour would have got 50+% of the vote, or any time since the time of the Corn Laws at which the Conservatives would have got less than 30% of the vote at any time.

There is no doubt that the Conservative Party is on a course back to power, and there is no doubt that there are tensions with the Labour Party that will at some point in the next 15 years lead to their fragmentation, however the Labour Party's record in parliamentary by-elections while it has been very variable, has been better than that of the Conservative Party in the 1990s, at times they have increased their vote, at others they have lost votes, and that with a House of Commons majority of 60+ - usually there are big protest votes on a regular basis against sitting governments with a comfortable majority, because even those who intend voting for them in a General Election feel happy about casting protest votes. In the 1990s, even after the Conservatives lost their majority there were huge by-election losses, they couldn't hold a single parliamentary seat at a by-election - the Mid-Staffordshire one hardly any time before the 1992 General Election.

There is no doubt thought that there is general and quite right horror at the supermassive PSBR and bloated public services, there is also a general feeling that MPs generally are failing the country, and little faith in any of the parliamentary parties.

I expect Labour to make losses in the European Election, and UKIP to hold their position or make gains, and to make huge losses in the County Council Elections, but then again different types of elections seem to bare increasingly less relation to each other.

And I would be saying exactly the same thing if the polls were showing the two main parties support the other way around, and have done in the past.

[FredrikI]

A question for this Socialist on this blogpost : If Foot and Kinnock were so wonderful leftwingers why did `nt they win their general elections ?

Surely Maggie T would have been toast against these glorious working class heroes !

Face it, Labour has failed !

[Yet Another Anon]

I assume you mean't Socialist worker and Man Utd supporter, as I didn't endorse anybody in my above post, I was merely giving my opinion of opinion polls and of General Election results - who I think is going to win the General Election has nothing to do with who i want to win it, in fact I would like to see a coalition of UKIP and Popular Alliance and to see the Liberal Democrats and Labour wiped out once and for all - not likely to happen at this General Election.

My opinion of Michael Foot is that he is well meaning, enthusiastic, intelligent and mostly wrong; I have always had little but contempt for Neil Kinnock.

[P Sixsmith]

"My opinion of Michael Foot is that he is well meaning, enthusiastic, intelligent and mostly wrong; I have always had little but contempt for Neil Kinnock."

Here, here! Michael Foot and Tony Benn although I disagreed with their politics at least they are genuine, principled men.

But as for Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and two-jags and croquet playing John Prescott. I do not trust those champagne socialists. I have nothing but contempt for them all, they don't have a genuine bone in their bodies.

[David Sergeant]

Like Socialist Worker and Man U supporter I also worked a long time in the public sector. Usually, but by no means always, there were more Labour suppoters than Conservatives. My experience is that Conservtives usually worked hard at their jobs but all too ofter Labour supporters didn't. They spent large amounts of time on trade union matters, they took the view that jobs were for their convenience rather than providing services, they often ignored their day-to-day duties in order to complain about the policies they are following.

Left wing managers when creating a system or reorganisation like to look as if they are introducing private sector type workings, but like NuLab, since none of them have any idea about real work it is usually bungled. There is vast waste in the public sector, the problem is the people that cause it are the people expected to sort it out.

[Rob]

I understand that Shaun Woodward is negotiating his way back to the Tories. Rats & sinking ship?