"We will be the most unpopular government in memory by the end of our first six months."

That quote comes from a "senior Cameroon" according to Matthew d'Ancona in The Sunday Telegraph.

The Spectator's Editor sees Friday's apology from David Cameron as an attempt to wipe the slate clean; not just a clever tactical attempt to put Gordon Brown in the spotlight for his failure to say 'sorry'.  He writes:

"As the self-styled "heir to Blair", Cameron initially branded himself as a Blairite with a blue rosette: he would be "post-Blair", rather than "anti-Blair", completing the New Labour revolution in public services rather than turning back the clock. He would reclaim for the Tory Party the centre ground that Blair had commanded for more than a decade and that Brown had vacated. He would spend less than New Labour – but still spend prodigiously. Though he would have objected strenuously to being described as such, Cameron Mark One was in many respects a "consensus" politician. Well, no longer. In Birmingham on Friday, the man who will probably be prime minister in little more than a year disowned the very same consensus, apologised for his part in it, and urged the voters to brace themselves for tough decisions. By saying sorry, he wiped the slate clean. And in politics, there is nothing more thrilling, or more alarming, than a newly-cleaned slate."

What will Mr Cameron write on to this clean slate?  An end to certain public spending pledges?  Overall cuts in public spending?  Tax rises?  A new regulatory regime?  Time will tell.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Patsy Sergeant]

Well if a Conservative Government does become unpopular, you can be sure that the EX-Labour government ministers and MP's will have a GREAT DEAL to do with it!! And no doubt one of them will manage to get in that all the woes of the country are due to Conservative governments - in other words, suddenly the last 12years of Labour's mismanagement, waste and inefficiency, letalone obfuscation, will mysteriously cease to exist in their minds!! Just wait and see!

[Jack Stone]

You have to win the election first and as Liverpools magnificient win against Manchester United yesterday shows that sometimes even against the odds the most unexpected things do happen!!!

[Victor, NW Kent]

"completing the New Labour revolution in public services". Matthew d'Ancona must have written that with tongue-in-cheek.

[It will be the Beeb]

Labour's media shills, most obviously the BBC, will be as mean as a snake on the next Conservative government and will no doubt convince the more gullible parts of the electorate, that that what ever happens after May 2010, it is entirley the fault of the Conservative government.

This is why, reformation of the BBC should be a prioroity of Cameron's government. The BBC have been taking public money for far too long, so that they can spread left-wing propaganda.

[another richard]

You might be surprised how popular getting rid of public sector non-jobs, reducing government red tape, stopping handouts to layabouts and curbing immigration will be.

The Conservatives do support these measures I hope?

[Malcolm Dunn]

If Cameron is honest and straightfoward with the British people I see no reason why he will inevitably unpopular for making difficult decisions. If he tells lies on a regular basis as Blair did then he will be unpopular and deservedly so.I don't think that will happen though.
One thing that Cameron must do is bring the political class into line with the rest of us. So MPs platinum plated pension arrangements will have to go and the behaviour of individuals like Caroline Spelman can no longer be tolerated.

[John Moss]

Peversely, the very depth of the hole we are in will help Cameron to push through radical and far reaching reform, however bitter the pill. The people now know how bad things are and have no illusions about the need for a painful restructuring.

They knew it in 1979 and they backed Thatcher's governments in the way you trust a dentist to remove a rotten tooth. You know it will probably hurt a lot for a short time, but without treatment, the whole mouth will decay.

We must not fall in to the trap of thinking we can get out of this with minor tweaks and changes. We must set out to recreate the public sector as a collection of services which respond to people, not to politicians. We must be radical and push as much money as possible right down to the users of services, not the providers.

Our proposals for secondary education are a start, but they should be rolled out to primary, further and higher education as well and then the same logic applied to health and welfare. Over ten years, standards will rise and costs will fall, allowing taxes to be reduced and eventually, debt to be repaid.

It will be painful, but it has to be done!

[chris southern]

Wipe out public sector non jobs and departments.
cut salaries of over paid public sector fat cats.
sort out the public sector pension schemes.

kill off the lobby groups/fake charities and other non elected commitees, they are just parasites.
leave the EU and it's fake subsidised market.
set up a real freemarket with few but good regulations, no tarrifs.

start war crimes and treason proceedings.
slowly move the banks to 100% reserve, far fewer regulations are needed when you can only loan what you have, as well as banks acting as a third party for the loaning, instead of the controlling party.

cut out a lot of unnecasary expance from the mod's budget by having the military desighn it's own weapons by attaching civilians to it's armoury that work with the soldiers themselves to desighn what THEY need, without needing to turn a huge profit unlike a private company (which will cit out the problem with boots falling apart when it's too hot, rifles falling apart and jamming when in any condition other than a nice target range! just for starters)

do i need to go on.

these things will only make you unpopular amongst those that won't vote for you anyway.

oh, and open up the mines again.

last thing, put in legislation that any worker that comes here from another country has to be paid an equivalent wage to the role/job that they are doing.
the current ptactices not only devalue our skilled labour (one of the many reasons why we have a shortedge) but also is allowing the foreighn workers to be used in a political and corperatist way.
(lets see the unions and EU's face when the british workers are standing up for foerighners rights, like it should have been done)

[snegchui]

Victor of Kent:
I agree, Blair talked a good reform , but as the entire administration has the attention span of a two year old on speed - with the exception of Brown who spent his time unravelling them, not a lot of change happened, but a lot of cash was spent for which we have little operational change-improvement and even less loose change from the spent wonga. The loose lies cleaned out the furthest reaches of the national wallet.
Like John Moss, I agree Thatcher was a doer, laid out the vision and delivered a lot of it. Not in agreement with all of it, but at least you know where you stand and you could see your shilling in action.

[anoneumouse]

Memories, pressed between the pages of my mind.

I remember before Margaret Thatcher was elected into office she made a speech where she told the electorate that if the Tories were successful at the election, then life would become difficult for the vast majority.

She was elected......things got hard......and after 6 months the Tories were the most unpopular government in memory.

[Edison Smith]

Jack Stone:

Gordon Brown is not Raphael Benitez.

Ed Balls is not Steven Gerrard.

[Sean Fear]

Malcolm and John, yes and no. If the Conservatives are honest with the public, and the public accept the need for tough policies, then they should get re-elected.

But that doesn't mean that the Conservatives won't become *very* unpopular in mid-term, as the tough policies bite, and before any benefit from them is seen.

[David Cooper]

OK, the likely reaction to tough economic medicine is one thing, but what if it is sweetened by six months' worth of restoration of lost freedom and removal of stealth tax via a bulk repeal of legislation from the last 12 years? With whom is that going to be unpopular other than the BBC/Guardian/Labour Client State alliance? We only need look for assurances that newly threatened measures such as tracking all travel plans, slashing rural speed limits and vastly increasing alcohol prices will be stopped dead, combined with a promise to follow Carswell & Hannan's "The Plan", and there should be little to fear from unpopularity.

[Jack Stone]

Edison Smith. No but even teams with average players can cause shocks sometimes.

[David_at_Home]

From about 2000 until 2007 we, as a nation, were spending roughly 5% more every year than we earned. This can be seen from the balance of payments deficit and from the increase in both private and public debt. I am but a simple engineer, but even I could see this in early 2005 when I raised the issue at an election meeting in my local village hall. Unfortunately the penny did not drop with Messrs Cameron and Osborne until a few months ago.

Anyway, obviously individuals, families and nations cannot spend more than they earn for ling periods without a painful correction. The world economy has shrunk in the past year and will decline further whilst we will have to start paying back (or at least pay the interest on) all the public and private debt with which we have been loaded. So the national GDP will fall be at least 10%, probably around 15% and possibly even more. This implies:

Massive cuts in public expenditure
Massive cuts in wages and salaries
Missive cuts in benefits, tax credits etc.
Horrific unemployment as the economy re-adjusts.
Large increases in taxation (yes, I know these could be counter productive if applied only to the rich so it will have to be applied to the middle classes too)

Unfortunately the majority infantilised, feckless and ill educated sections of the Great British Public don’t understand what is about to hit them and no-one in the political classes wants to explain the problem. It’s so much easier to blame the American banks!

So, when reality hits home to a still largely blissfully ignorant population, there will to civil strife and the government of the day will be extremely unpopular.

Enjoy the ride!

[david brough (lovemaker)]

Chris Southern, if you were that clever you'd be able to spell.

Another Richard, who exactly are these "layabouts"? Is it the people who are currently losing your jobs, or do you deem them to be acceptable? I'd love to know which people you think can be left to starve and it will be popular.

[chris southern]

Chris Southern, if you were that clever you'd be able to spell.

Another Richard, who exactly are these "layabouts"? Is it the people who are currently losing your jobs, or do you deem them to be acceptable? I'd love to know which people you think can be left to starve and it will be popular.

Posted by: david brough (lovemaker) | March 15, 2009 at 15:35

i never claimed to be a genius, nor did i claim to be the best at spelling.
you don't have to be a genius to see what needs to be done, you don't have to be a genius to realise what mistakes have been made over the last 30+ years.

having a go at someones spelling, without disagreeing with anything they say shows that you don't have much constructive things to say.

[Paul J]

I think I'll open a book on how long the BBC's policy of not reporting single opinion poll results would last if a Tory government becomes unpopular after the next election.

More seriously, we may build a big enough consensus of support over the next 18 months to actually be able to tackle some of the institutional media bias that we face head on.

[Super Blue]

If anything is almost as bad as trolling, it is glory-hunting ;)

[Guinevere]

I can very well visualize the liberal media spin when Conservatives are elected - 'Milk snatchers', 'Tory cuts', 'National discgrace of the culling of five-a-day-co-ordinators' etc etc etc, but at least the hard-pressed middle class, which is and will always be the backbone of Britain - hard-working, tax-paying, house-buying, small/medium business-owning - will finally be able to sigh out of relief in hope of finally having their country back.

[Patrick Harris]

Tories getting ready to govern on the back of New Labour's failure.
What are the CONservative policies that will cause the "floating" voter to put the cross against Conservative Unionist Party.
I for one will not vote in the dark.

[Alan Phillips]

Not too much stick without a few carrots please, moderation is key here.

[Ross Warren]

Yes we could indeed be the most hated Conservatives for a long while. The Cold slap of reality as its dawns will make many people question our sincere motives. The rattle of trains, will not cease but the nation will still be shaken. I estimate a 20% real reduction in the average wealth in real terms. Many car drivers will be forced from the roads, and many people will want to drown their sorrows in expensive beer. I think the press going under would hasten the general feeling of outrage. We will need Price Charles on side, and we will require the support of the Queen. We need to recognize that the cuts are not going to be avoided by any group, and will have to be shared across all social groups. We should cut back on celebrity and the death of the press as we currently understand it will not include so much tittle tattle and juicy gossip. I think we have to act in every area quickly whilst the nation is still insolvent and aim to restore solvency as quickly as possible. We might sweeten the pill with patriots music and uplifting stories of royal and noble deeds.If we pick further on the unemployed, we can expect bloody riots to break out. We will see outrages if we are unwise to the real anger of England. There are any number of dangerous individuals who might choose to fan the flames. It will be an "interesting time". Of course for a very large majority things will be not so bad, and by the end of the third year we will be a much beloved and admired success.

[Jack Stone]

Ross Warren. Much beloved but not by the doctors and the nurses who will inevitably lose there jobs because of Tory spending cuts!!

[David_at_Home]

Jack Stone,

".....but not by the doctors and the nurses who will inevitably lose there jobs because of Tory spending cuts!!"

Because of 50 years of mismanagement and living beyond our means compounded by 12 years of really terrible wasteful government and living on tick, our nation has not only sold the family silver but is also mortgaged up to the hilt and we have been feasting on the seed corn. So the cupboard is just about bare for doctors, nurses and everyone else (my daughter is a doctor, by the way).

Why do you socialist types find facing reality so difficult?

I (almost) feel sorry for David Cameron who is clearly totally unprepared, both mentally and from his very limited life experience, for the momentous task he is soon to confront.

[Alex]

Jack Stone

Your Liverpool v Manchester United analogy was poor.

The GE will be more like a match between Liverpool (Con) and West Brom (Lab) ... an inevitable rout that will end up with Labour being relegated

[Justine Brown]

" They knew it in 1979 and they backed Thatcher's governments in the way you trust a dentist to remove a rotten tooth. You know it will probably hurt a lot for a short time, but without treatment, the whole mouth will decay "

I see your point but I really find that a cruel comparison, and far too literal.
The quality of NHS dentistry is apsolutly shocking.

I had a horrible experience when having impressions done for dentures and crowns, they made me bite into the wrong stuff. It all hardened up and they couldn't get this huge gooey impression out of my mouth.

And it was worse, they said they hadn't got any more appointments to fix it for two weeks, and I couldn't talk to argue. They said it would be private to get it off, and not part of the NHS.

Then I had the total humiliation of going out in the street with the impression stuck in my mouth.

[Freddy]

The comment on defence spending was interesting. Before any order for equipment is placed a sizeable number of those items should be trialled. This would avoid fiascos like the 8,000 MAN trucks that had to be modified at great expense because they were not suitable for Afghanistan, or the Panther command vehicle which has turned out to be so bad that it has never been fielded.

A good way to see that money is spent wisely is to buy it "off the shelf" from well known suppliers rather than to design it yourself, or insist on complex modifications.

[Paul Seaman]

The Tories believe in tough-love. That is their USP. They believe in it for the economy and for families and education and welfare systems. That doesn’t make them red in tooth and claw, but it really is not clear that the Tories can ever be nice. One cannot be all things to all men, not even in retail politics.

Labour’s pitch is that you can tax the economy (especially the rich, say the old-timers) and fix the problems poor people face. The Tory’s pitch is that tax-and-spend is certainly bloody awful for the better-off but not much better - and maybe worse - for the poor. That’s not a pretty message for about a third of the population, but it may be true for all that. It also appeals strongly to lots of people.

The rest of this article is on my PR blog here:

http://paulseaman.eu/2009/01/the-tories-toughness-and-empathy/

[Paul Seaman]

The Tories believe in tough-love. That is their USP. They believe in it for the economy and for families and education and welfare systems. That doesn’t make them red in tooth and claw, but it really is not clear that the Tories can ever be nice. One cannot be all things to all men, not even in retail politics.

Labour’s pitch is that you can tax the economy (especially the rich, say the old-timers) and fix the problems poor people face. The Tory’s pitch is that tax-and-spend is certainly bloody awful for the better-off but not much better - and maybe worse - for the poor. That’s not a pretty message for about a third of the population, but it may be true for all that. It also appeals strongly to lots of people.

The rest of this article is on my PR blog here:

http://paulseaman.eu/2009/01/the-tories-toughness-and-empathy/

[Emily Sedgefield]

Not if you keep reminding the electorate who got us into this mess..

What about shouting about our freedom? I am not the only one questioning this!!!

Blaney's Blarney Blogspot

[another richard]

"Another Richard, who exactly are these "layabouts"? Is it the people who are currently losing your jobs, or do you deem them to be acceptable? I'd love to know which people you think can be left to starve and it will be popular."

No not people who are losing their jobs such as the 30 people who have lost their jobs this month at the factory I work at.

You want an example of a layabout - Sharon Matthews. In reality there are thousands, probablt tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands like her.

Speak to any working class person and they will tell you who the local layabouts are.

[another richard]

"Jack Stone

Your Liverpool v Manchester United analogy was poor."

Actually it would be better if the period to the general elections was compared to the rest of the football season.

Liverpool might have won the match but Manchester Utd still have a big advantage in the Premiership contest.

Equivalently there be bad days before the election for the Conservatives but I'm still confident that the will win at the end.

[David_at_Home]

"Speak to any working class person and they will tell you who the local layabouts are."

This, in my experience, is true. It is a good reason why the distributions of benefits, and the decisions concerning who gets what, should be devolved to local level, as it was until quite recently.

Local organisations are much more efficient too. In our village, the rent for the Alms Houses, which are entirely unsubsidised, is far lower than the rent for the council houses.

[Adam2]

Even as I type I expect that Baron Peter Benjamin Mandelson and Edward Michael Balls are laying a lot of political and economic mines for a future Conservative government to step on. Some of them will be slow burners because they'll be expecting 2 or 3 terms out of office.

The rest of them will be at the shredding machines ... whirl ... scrunch ... gone!

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