« The Conservatives declare victory in the battle of the fiscal stimulus | Main | Has President Obama requested to meet David Cameron next week? »


I think you mean UNIFORM national swing, not universal, Jonathan. And UNS breaks down when the swing is large. If this result were repeated at a general election, our majority would almost certainly be much higher than 20.

I think this is the time to be banging home the message of severe cuts in the growth of spending, or spending itself. I presume that the 'essential' public departments would include defence.

I am also one of the rare (it seems) Conservatives who agree with the 45p tax band. It seems the public do too. We, therefore, cannot backtrack on this hint, but instead force it into the manifesto.

I also think that, despite the public widely agreeing with the Conservative viewpoint, our poll ratings are fustratingly low. I expect if we take the above steps in a way that is widely available to the public (Run round leaflets, promote on internet etc), we should be looking at a lead of 16%, and a rating of between 43% and 48%

It is reassuring to see a steady lead but it needs to be more than 10%

When are people in this country going to see what Brown has done - sold gold of at the wrong point, wrecked pension funds, wrecked the economy etc.

God I hope the electorate wakes up soon!!

Everyone is happy to agree with the statement "public spending is too high", but they soon change position when you suggest their particular sacred cows might get cut.

I'll say it again, the 45p tax rate proposal is an "elephant trap," designed to snare our party.

It has nothing whatever to do with economics - it has everything to do with politics.

If we oppose it Brown will say - "They only care for the rich."

73% of people support a top rate tax band of 45% or more

Can we now please drop the stupid "principled" stance that we HAVE to oppose it? Just leave it open depending on the friggin' books after the election. No point taking a stand for rich people on an issue the people DON'T BACK.

10% is not exactly a convincing lead after more than a decade of Brown's mismanagement.

There is a lot of frustration and anger around which has resulted in complete disillusionment with New Labour.

Unfortunately the Conservative leadership not only cannot harness this political disillusionment but also manages to incur contempt for its mealy-mouthed policies.

In the US the election campaign lasted quite some time, can't we start the run up now? We should be out there convincing people. Even with more than ten years of Labour spending our money on politics rather than government, endless handouts, bribes, spin and propaganda, can these poll figures really include swing voters? If anyone other than Labour's base (idiots) and those bought by our tax money (scum) vote for Labour, we will have done a miserable job in opposition. The evidence for Labour's failure is as overwhelming as the evidence for evolution, only extreme fools could deny it.

The conservatives should be up at 50%. They would be if the people genuinely believed they would come down on the side of the average man. They need to put all this 'tax cuts for the rich' nonsense to bed. If anything, they should be stealing Labour's ground and proposing short term tax rises for the very richest. They are going to have to raise taxes for everyone anyway, they might as well do it whilst publicly undermining their opponents. Once in government slash the public sector and then cut taxes later.

"Can we now please drop the stupid "principled" stance that we HAVE to oppose it? Just leave it open depending on the friggin' books after the election. No point taking a stand for rich people on an issue the people DON'T BACK."

I support the 45p tax hike and so my position has been vindicated. Your's on the other hand has been rejected as reactionary.

You have been proven to be just as out of touch as all of those that you are currently criticising. People have shown, in this poll and many others, that they do not want ever higher spending in times of high budget deficits.

I waited patiently for you to admit that you know nothing after I showed you another poll regarding public opinion on spending growth, will I continue waiting?

PS I'd also like an apology for the way that you spoke to me when you were spewing your garbage.

Static polls are boring. :-)

Whoever said the Conservatives should be at 50%+ is having a laugh. Only bad polling in the mid-90s gave Labout 50+% - when the election happened they turned out to be at 44% after all, and that was at the end of 18 Tory years...

10 before question time, more of mr pickle please.the only tory who sounds normal-ish

So the vast majority support the 45% tax rate, quelle surprise.

It's the right-wing Tories on here who are desperately out of touch. You should try listening to Ken Clarke a bit more, and pull your fingers out of your ears.

I bet 75%+ of the public are against IHT cuts for multi-millionnaires too.

"So the vast majority support the 45% tax rate, quelle surprise."

And spending cuts, and a new government, quelle surprise.

BTW I wouldn't be so sure about the inheritance tax cut. It was popular when it was announced and it got cheers from the audience during an interview with cameron.

The underlying figures on whom the public trusts on the economy, public services etc, and the personal ratings of the leaders seems to be getting better all the time.

Why is it not reflected in the headline numbers?

On the question of whether we should be further ahead, one would have expected so. However, an election would highlight the differences between Brown & Cameron very well. Does anyone believe that that would not be worth a large number of seats?

"However, an election would highlight the differences between Brown & Cameron very well"

Assuming that Brown is PM then, which is not a safe assumption imho.

Brown himself is the difference between Cameron being PM or the Tory Kinnock which makes sense as Cameron's has relied almost entirely on the 'not Brown' card.

So Tories just have to hope that Brown clings on, as Labour's only chance is to ditch him before the GE.

Tristran calling people idiots , scum and fools for having a different opinion does nothing to help your arguement . How do you think that you can persuade people to listen to the Tory point of view when you use disgusting language like that.

People might be fed up with Gordon brown but the policy of helping millionaires while ordinary people suffer and lose their jobs is crazy. 45p for top earners is not just popular but fair , that's why it has 73% of public support .

loking at our target seats (according to ukpolling report)here are 190 seats that require a swing of 10% derby north means we are heading for a majority of 50 it is target seat number 130 i don't understand why the swingometer says only a majority of 20 if there are 190 seats within a 10% swing.

Can someone explain? have i done something wrong with my calculations (i am new to this prediction game)

Here's an example for you, skewed to made the point as bleedin' obvious as possible.

Imagine the total Govt expenditure is £1,001 and there are only 2 taxpayers in the UK, 'A' earning £2 and 'B' earning £1,000,000.

The tax rates mean that A pays £1 tax, and B pays £1,000 tax.

Which means the poorest of the two, pays 50% of his earnings in tax, and the richest pays just 0.1%.

Unfair scream the lefties! You are helping the rich, with the biggest % burden on the poor!

However, and this is the point the lefties ignore, as a proportion of government expenditure, B pays 99.9% and A pays just 0.01%.

So, actually, B pays a much, much higher % than A, so the last thing you want to do is tax him even more as you need him to keep everyone elses tax bills as low as they are.

In short, the % you should be comparing is the absolute tax amount paid as a percentage of the total tax raised.

But then, that would highlight how the burden is actually on the rich, wouldn't it?

People are attached to the IHT change because it was a promise.

People barely trust politicians to deliver on even the most clearly given promise (Leaving the EPP... days... weeks... months...years).

So is it any surprise they are unwilling to give up on a promise, and just trust that 'something will be done'?

There are people in the cabinet and here who would be perfectly happy to dishonour a promise - what commitment would they show to anything less binding?

Instead of trying to earn trust, they are clearly demonstrating that they hold it in contempt. I hope they aren't the same people who complain about the public being cynical about politicians.

Personally, with such people clearly in evidence, I think the deepest cynicism is the most rational view for the public to take.

Can people please stop referring to the raising of the threshold for IHT as a 'tax cut for millionaires'

Quite the opposite - the threshold is being rased to make IHT only a millionaires tax - it takes everyone who is not a millionaire out of the tax.

Why do we keep letting Labour get away with claiming the opposite?

I've long believed that public spending it too high, and I'd like to see it cut by a quarter, down to around 30% of GDP.

Nevertheless I'd still be in the 9% who believe that the current level should be maintained - for now, as far as possible.

The broad brush picture is that if the flows of money through the state coffers are to be cut by 10% of GDP, then 10% of the labour force will need to redeployed from work which directly or indirectly depends on those flows of money, to work which involves only flows of money within the private sector.

If that transition was attempted under the present economic conditions, the displaced workers would not be redeployed, but would remain unemployed.

It sticks in my craw that we have to continue paying for people to do unnecessary or even counter-productive jobs; but we are where we are, not where we would like to be, or where we would be if Gordon Brown hadn't been so careless with our money.

For students of Greek mythology, the course he chose to set while he was Chancellor has now put us between Scylla and Charybdis.

On one side, Scylla, the danger that gilts investors will demand a grievous, and possibly unaffordable, price for helping the government to fund its budget deficit; on the other side, Charybdis, the danger of mass unemployment sucking us all down into a deflationary whirlpool.

He could easily have steered us around this narrow, perilous, strait, but the fact is that he didn't, and now we have no choice but to try to get through it with the least possible harm.

As Raj so eloquently puts it:

"Just leave it open depending on the friggin' books after the election".

According to today's article on the proposed 45p tax, William Norton states that it would only affect about 500,000 people and raise only about £670m a year (Nov 2008 PBR). There is also a worked example to show how ConHome PLC can legally avoid its CEO, Mr Montgomerie, from paying this impost, while at the same time increasing his pension pot substantially.

This is a projected Labour tax, not a conservative one, and we should avoid being sucked into a hypothetical discussion about this or IHT until we have seen the books.

If we have to wait another year before getting rid of Brown (LabourHome is discussing a much earlier demise for him), then maybe we will be looking at a 45p basic rate to pay for his disastrous policies!

We should expose more the cuts that ZNL are already making e.g. in the probation service, 20%.

There needs to be a MUCH clearer message about public spending.

The conservatives do a very poor job of condemming wasteful public spending. Labour just have to whisper "cuts in services" and the tories scurry for cover.

Be open - get some figures out there showing how much waste there is and has been and get the message through properly that tens of billions can be cut/saved WITHOUT affecting the number of doctors/nurses/teachers or weekly bin collections. Start by pointing out how many public servants are beaurocrats.

- Oh and then DO IT (cuts)!

31% out there would still vote for them!!!
We're failing.

The comments to this entry are closed.



ConHome on Twitter

    follow me on Twitter

    Conservative blogs

    Today's public spending saving

    New on other blogs

    • Receive our daily email
      Enter your details below:

    • Tracker 2
    • Extreme Tracker