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This is extraordinary - a 10 point drop in one month though as Tim correctly points out, nothing has happened to account for such a shift! I can only assume it is because David Cameron has been away on compassionate leave and Gordon has had the headlines to himself for a while. Lesson - the more DC is in the news, the better our poll ratings!

From Mike Smithson:

"My reading is that there has been very little change between the parties but the headline numbers have been driven by a big increase in the proportion of Labour supporters saying they are 100% certain to vote. This has increased the size of the overall “pool” on which the headline figures are based and this has impacted on the Tory share."

While we still lead, we can't become complacent. There is a real danger that we might end up with a hung parliament with lots of votes in the south and in seats we already hold but not much progress in the north in working class communities.

Blame William Hague for his spineless comments when British jobs were on the line at the Total oil refinery, blame David Cameron for not saying he'd abandon the Lisbon Treaty, and blame George Osborne for talking about public spending cuts at a time when only public sector workers are working. Then blame other parties for offering alternatives to all those things.

What has happened is that nothing is happening from within the Conservative party on a strategy to deal with the credit crunch and take us out of recession. All we see in the news is Brown and Mandelson. As usual the Conservative party is not being heard.

In case no one noticed, there 12% "missing" from the data, and I'll give two guesses where that 12% might be.

I still think Tory Majority 60-70, but there is one very unlikely theory I'm contemplating. I think Tory support is much more brittle than it has been, historically speaking. If the polls swing against the Tories more heavily, for no obvious reason, there is a decent chance that the right of the Tory party might kick off as they did with grammar schools, perhaps over the EU, and remind the average swing voter of the shallowness of the Cameron project. Labour is resigned to Brown and no-one is going to kick up a fuss and show disunity before an election, and unity always trumps disunity. This could move us more towards the hung parliament territory.

As I say, this is unlikely, There are plenty of opportunities for the government to screw up, and almost none for the Tories.

I note that David Cameron is still listed as a signatory on the United against Fascism website along with 2 other Tory Mps,the Muslim Council of Britain,Dr Siddiqui of the Muslim Parliament,the editors of Red Pepper and the Morning Star,the Black Police association etc.
UAF is an extreme left organization which no Conservative MP should go anywhere near and Cameron has been warned about this for over two years.
The UAF is now conducting violent assaults against BNP meetings and leafleters.
My point is that if the BNP had any nous they would demand Cameron resigns from this organization. What would be a reply? A humiliating climbdown or tough it out with his assorted far left friends.
It is not only in the economic sphere there needs to be apologies from Cameron but also his support of the EU and mass immigration from in and out of the EU with its enormous capital and income costs to the lowest paid in Britain.
Then there is his involvement with the global warming hoax.
Also there is his absurd and demeaning article in the Observer in 2007 'Not for the first time,I found myself thinking that it is mainstream Britain which needs to integrate more with the British Asian(in this instance Muslim)way of life,not the other way round.'
While the Leader has been ingratiating himself with the metropolitan elite and the media he does not seem to have for one moment thought that these people could be wrong in their ideology.
The electorate instinctively sense this and that is why the Tories are still struggling in this contest between two unpopular parties.

As [email protected]:30 above rightly points out nothing has changed much here except that the 'certainty to vote' has changed.

Underlying figures are pretty much unchanged so there is nothing in this poll regarding vote shares to get excited about. However, David Cameron's personal figures are good news.

As for the lack of inactivity, I suspect the reasons are twofold. Firstly David Cameron's tragedy from which he has just returned, and secondly and in terms of the polling scenario we are coming into campaign season so other than short-term announcements such as the TV Licence freeze, I suspect there are not going to be many significant announcements until the Spring Conference at which point again I suspect the campaign will kick off.

So for a few weeks more we need to be patient and wait. If the party can take a 10 point lead or thereabouts into the conference then the party will be in good shape to start the long run in to the next General Election.

The polls will narrow even further over the next month or so. I hear that 'Darling' will be announcing the 45p tax to come into force this year and tax threshold to raise to nearly 10k. That will have Labour supporters voting again, I guarantee it.

A few weeks of propaganda by the BBC on the miners strike and it wakes up the sleeping socialists.

So much for all that nonsense about the BBC wining and dining the shadow cabinet.

In the real world the BBC continues to be as biased as ever.

resident leftie, support for Grammar schools is pretty unanimous amongst non-Etonian Tories :P

It's the only way for a people who cannot afford private education to have a guaranteed high level of schooling.

I can understand people joining a group to oppose racism, but why join an anti-Fascist group? Do people even understand that Fascism is an economic system and unlike National socialism does not have a racist philosophy.

The basic ideals of Fascism as expounded by Rocco were an attempt to end the class distinctions created by the left, and the corporate state was aimed at bringing workers and business together. Those who try to equate Fascism with racism do not understand history.

this is just Ipsos Mori coming back into line with the other pollsters

move along now, nothing to see

Labour is widely loathed and the Tories manage to be ahead by just 10%!
Rather pathetic really.
Especially when one considers that the Lib number is shrinking.

Most people in this country have in their minds a date some time in early mid 2010 for the next election.
Now, more than any other time, is the period when the electorate are mulling things over making up their minds. Opinions will have crystallised by the time of the actual election campaign and I suspect it will then be too late to change things whatever is then said.

Having failed to differ much on all the main issues,the Conservatives are setting themselves in stone as the mildly-less-worse-than-Labour party and appear to be settling for a minor victory over Labour.
The buggins turn mentality which infests the minds of all too many Conservative activist/MP's is now becoming a rigid yoke.

Perhaps they are frightened of too large a victory?

The British Jobs episode was probably more important than the Westminster in-crowd realise. One could almost feel the people looking to the Tories for leadership and hear the sigh of disappointment when they openly sided with the international rich and their self serving "free trade" mantra against the people of this country.
That was a clearcut test of "whose side are you on"? ---and they failed.

The constitutional arena ,ie of the lack of representation of England in the British state,is another obvious area of initiative which the Conservatives have completely failed either to comprehend or offer any sort of hope for change from the unfair mess we have at present.The Conservatives should have been banging on about an English Parliament for years. By now, it would have been an accepted fact that it will happen. All they can bring themselves to offer is the mush of EVOEM and not even that really. Completely against their own interests!
God, how pitiful.

I hesitate to offer Blair as an example but despite his moral vacuosity he was a tactical dynamo. Blair would NEVER have settled for doing what the Tories are doing ie operating within the LIB/Lab/Con Westminster consensus. He would have tossed it aside, sensed what was desired and got on with the job of establishing a set of promises and an aura of hope.
The result for him in 1997 was a victory the size of which the Tories of 2009 away shrink from.

Frightened, I suppose.

And totally pathetic.

The Mori poll does underscore voter volatility, but since Mori's results are more variable needs confirmation.

Richard's views are interesting from a lib/left perspective. They represent the ant-tory meme of the left who abhor the Conservatives and is quite representative of Lib Dem thinking. I still think that the Lib Dems are far from being the yellow-new-conservatives that some in Project Cameron hope they may be. The Lib Dems remain an ant-Tory party as much marxist as liberal.

When things may get interesting is if Labour offers the Lib Dems a deal that would lock them into government and perhaps lock the Conservatives out - that means PR.

Labour's harboured thoughts of PR in the past. It may return again to think seriously on such matters in the event of defeat.

That's another reason for no complacency on our side. We need to drive a wooden stake through the hearts of both Labour and Lib Dems.

YouGov have the survey out on Euro election voting which includes BNP and UKIP in the questions. Normally, those two parties are simply down as "other", so 'someone' is interested in finding out the voting intentions.

However, going by Dave cuddling up to the EU, Hague blocking our British workers and Osborne missing an open goal to mention ANYTHING about clawing back the £7 billion Blair gave away to the EU, I doubt it's any of them asking the questions.

Who could be interested in the Euro elections I wunda if not us!

They must have polled more Jocks this month.

"The British Jobs episode was probably more important than the Westminster in-crowd realise. One could almost feel the people looking to the Tories for leadership and hear the sigh of disappointment when they openly sided with the international rich and their self serving "free trade" mantra"

That's such a good point its worth reading in isolation. The Conservative party backed foreign workers over British jobless. No wonder people are disgusted.

"However, going by Dave cuddling up to the EU..."

Umm, what? He just did something so anti-EU it caused the EU President to have a hissy fit...

marvin @ 13:02 -- aint that the truth.

And if universities are going to be setting their fees in the tens of thousands, we must have some form of selection there too -- free/cheap courses for the brightest.

The stupid socialists don't realise that selection is the *solution* to giving the poor the same educational opportunities as the rich.

Or (I suspect) they do know this, but they resent anyone 'bettering' themselves, as it reduces their support base.

Those who try to equate Fascism with racism do not understand history.
The confusion is caused because Hitler and the Nazis successfully hijacked the term Fascism and managed to claim Mussolini as theirs, unfortunately Mussolini didn't publicly refute this, especially as he was too worried about Germany invading, the proximity of The Third Reich to Italy's borders made him panic, allying himself to the Axis Powers rather than the Allied Powers or being neutral, as he felt he had no choice but to pick a side, if he had chosen neutrality then possibly Germany would have left Italy alone as it left Switzerland, Spain and Portugal alone, if he had chosen the Allies then perhaps with Italy's military added in then Germany's advance would have been checked earlier and counter-offensives might have finished the war earlier and he might have remained in power for the remainder of his life as Franco did.

The fact that Italy was allied to Germany in WWII makes it far easier for those who seek to makeout that Nazism is exactly the same as Fascism, which initially included the whole British establishment for war purposes making such a position. Thus anyone seeking to perpetuate such a position is starting with general favourability towards such an opinion among most of the general population.

David, yes I agree it would appear that way but if you had something a little more concrete to offer than Barroso having a hissy fit then I think you coulod be on to something.

Posted by: steve | March 17, 2009 at 13:30

Roflmo

Very good.

This poll shows that the Tories must NEVER
get complacent and take a victory for granted.

Fight, fight and fight !

Watch it Anthony your almost sounding BNP sympathetic.

I wonder if this poll doesn't say more about Mori than it does about the state of the party. I really do wonder if we were ever really 20% ahead.
For astute analysis rather than posters getting their own prejudices off their chests I would recommend the Political Betting website.

"In case no one noticed, there 12% "missing" from the data, and I'll give two guesses where that 12% might be"


The BNP are only on 2% if that's what you're getting at. And UKIP are on 1%.

36% and Labour are home and dry. Worrying hey?

The major problem for the Tories is that they were nervously shattered by the viciousness of New Labour smears and the 'Tory cuts' message that went so deep into the consciousness of the British people.

The Tories have no client base anymore. Labour has built a very large client state of a well renumerated public sector workers, those on benefits etc who are doing very well thank you and know that their narrow self - interest they will probably lose out under a Tory government. This is what New Labour was always about - a Kulturkampf project to change the demographic of the British electorate.

Yet Another Anon. That's a good analysis. Fascism and National Socialism are completely different systems and its often not known that Italy offered assistance to Austria prior to the anschluss. Mussolini, Rocco, and others were opposed to anti-semtism and Mussolini even refused to sack his Jewish secretary when Hitler suggested that he should, Mussolini defiantly told Hitler that she was the best secretary in Italy!

The left have labelled anyone left of centre as being Fascist and have equated Fascist with racist which creates a huge area for smear. The basic legislative and economic structure of Fascist Italy was innovative and a genuine attempt to end the class distinctions created by the left. This is why Marxist philosophers always try to claim that Fascism is the 'last gasp' of capitalism.

Back to the subject of the thread please!

"I wonder if this poll doesn't say more about Mori than it does about the state of the party. I really do wonder if we were ever really 20% ahead."

Malcolm, I do have the same misgivings as yourself on this! I wonder if someone with inside knowledge of one of the big polling organisations might be able to write something for us in the future about their methods?

Good point, Yet Another.
Italy being in the 11WW on the Nazi side is one of the mistakes of history. Mussolini's inflential son in law, Count Ciano, was always resolutely pro British and anti German. Italy was a good ally of the British and French in the 1WW and could have been so again given a bit of intelligent handling.A litle bit of thinking outside the box in their dealings with Italy might have paid vast dividends to British diplomats at the time if only they had not been locked into the socialist left/right box which has cursed the last 150 years.

Another mistake of history which appears to be developing
- entirely because of the historical and constitutional ignorance of the leadership of the Tory party-

is the lack of any awareness of the need to grab the English card when it is so patently on offer. And so constitutionally justifiable. So potentially massively to the party's advantage too.
The fall back on vague and deliberately defused half measures will be regarded with contempt in years to come.

But then, thats all of a piece with the desperated desire not to win by too much.

I know quite a few Labour supporters and over recent weeks many have gone from saying they wouldn not vote at the next election to saying that they are impressed with the energy being shown by Gordon Brown. So maybe these disillusioned Labour supporters are slowly coming back into the fold. It certainly seems that Gordon Brown is never off the TV these days.

"However, going by Dave cuddling up to the EU..."

Umm, what? He just did something so anti-EU it caused the EU President to have a hissy fit...

Posted by: David | March 17, 2009 at 13:35

No. David Cameron only did something anti-EPP, not anti-EU. He loves the EU and wants to give it more powers, e.g. on cutting carbon emissions to fight global warming. On his election, David immediately abandoned Howard's policy of leaving the Common Fisheries Policy.

To demonstrate his commitment to the EU Project, Cameron has banned frontbenchers from supporting the Freedom Association's Better Off Out campaign. Frontbenchers like Ken Clarke are free to support the Lisbon Treaty. Christopher Beazley MEP has not been stopped from advocating that Britain joins the Eurozone now. Several of his colleagues, protected from deselection, share his views privately.

During the Immingham refinery dispute, David and William Hague expressed their full support for open borders and unlimited immigration from EU states. Recently, Conservative MEPs were whipped to support greater EU regulation of the City.

Anyone who thinks that a Cameron government will be Eurosceptic is deluding themselves. David is the most pro-EU Conservative leader since Sir Edward Heath. Wake up and smell the garlic!

Tony Makara, when you stop canvassing for the Tory Party I am sure this unwelcome trend will come to an end.

No need to be nasty snegchui.

Those who believe that this is just a glitch and we are home and dry are deluding themselves. Utterly. Fact - my parents were small business people, broken by the current economic climate. Fact - they have always voted Tory. Fact - neither have ANY FAITH that the Tories know what they are doing economically, have any moral courage and will offer a genuine alternative. Fact - they won't be voting Conservative. My brother - the same. My friends, many of them the sort of voter the party NEED to convince - NOT ONE is persuaded that the Torys have anything new or radical to say. We are in for a humiliating kicking folks, unless we begin to speak for the people and to the people. It's time to be Conservatives again - not some washed-out, light pink version of the new-Labour project. We should all be very scared as the people that lead our party - and I have the greatest admiration for many of them as individuals - are failing us, and worse (because we devotees will always vote Tory, irrespective), they are failing the country.

Going back to the polls, they are likely to be volatile in a depression when voters' moods swing violently in the face of bad economic news. There is also a tendency to look at opposition parties more critically - "better the devil you know" etc. Cameron has apologised for the Conservatives not offering a more powerful critique of the government's economic policy.

To say that the Conservatives did not see the recession coming is an admission of failure, both by Cameron and Osborne.

Financiers like Warren Buffet saw it coming two years ago. A billionaire that I know (a former Tory donor), following his personal advice, sold all his British property, businesses and shareholdings and is now a tax exile living on his huge yacht. Other American investment financiers now believe that Britain will go bust, like Iceland, and are telling their clients to sell all their UK assets.

I am now planning my move overseas because, frankly, I have no confidence in Cameron or Osborne. They have no principles or belief, just an opportunistic lust for power and the associated glittering prizes. The country can afford the high price of their vanity and self-aggrandisement.

Even though Italian Fascism was not initially anti-semitic or racist by 1938 it started to follow Germany's lead.

In July 1938 the new Ministry of Popular Culture published a Manifesto of Italian Racism, and a law in September removed Jewish teachers and students from the school system(though all Jewish converts to catholicism were exempt) with seperate Jewish schools to be established. The Fascist Grand Council expelled Jews from the party the following month and outlawed mixed marriages for party members. A purge then removed Jews from all major institutions, while the government decreed that they could no longer own land or businesses with more than one hundred employees.

A subsequent Law for the Defence of the Race forbade all mixed marriages in Italy, though there were various exclusions from these rulings for Jewish war veterans, founding members of the party, and children from mixed marriages who did not themselves practice Judaism.

from A History of Fascism 1914-45 by Stanley G.Payne.

Just you get back to watching your free version of Little Dorrit.
Here's a thought, if the BBC are lovebombing all these freebies, has ConHome any intention of raffling them off for a good cause, or like the MPs expenses will they become incredibly sticky?

Time for you to do some more work on your family, Sad Tory - that is, IF you are sad and IF you are a Tory!

Is it any wonder the gap is closing. We are not hearing any vision or understandable policies from the Tory party. To keep banging on about localism and the rights of Binyam Mohammed is not going to win the next election. Also for George Osborne to make a speech as he did the other day, effectively saying that families are to blame for the mess we are in and we are in for years of finanacial pain under the Tories is madness. Hard working people are not going to take strong economic medicine and lectures from a man who is very wealthy due to his family, has been cushioned all his life by a generous trust fund and has never had a proper job or had to struggle like most people.

"desperated desire" should, of course, be "desperate desire". Apologies for the typo.

On second thoughts, perhaps the first attempt was most appropriate since it roughly equates with the level of constitutional awareness of this increasingly silly Conservative leadership.

That they have, through appalling ignorance, failed to grab the golden gift of English parliamentary emancipation which Blair so flippantly gave them and thus secure the future of the United Kingdom is so doing, preferring to trail after Labour and try and patch up their broken system, will rank high in the history of small man and limited minds.

Isn't it amazing how all these wonderful new posters are suddenly springing up on this topic! It's just after 4 pm and a couple of hours to go until home time at No. 10.....

Reading too much into any one poll is pointless. The basic fact is that there'll be ups and downs. The Conservatives will almost certainly be the largest party with the most votes. Whether that will constitute a working majority is, I think, very open to question.

David1, we all know that Fascist Italy adopted anti-semitic laws to curry favour with Germany, but this was very much against the wishes of many of the Fascist leaders including Mussolini himself who in no way can be described as anti-semitic because he had a jewish girlfriend Margherita Sarfatti and Mussolini stated openly that he thought jewish women had a biblical beauty. The laws Italy enacted were made under severe diplomatic pressure, in fact Mussolini himself told associates that the laws were on paper only to please the Teutons.

Sally: Your wonder at 1500 or thereabouts

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/03/16/the-pb-guide-to-polling-methodologies/

Very brief but a start.

"The Conservatives will almost certainly be the largest party with the most votes. Whether that will constitute a working majority is, I think, very open to question."

My point precisely.

----

Italian fascism was not originally or intrinsically antisemitic by the way. Anything it did in this way was under Nazi pressure.

Many thanks, snegchui - very helpful! :-)

The polls will get narrower and narrower because people are coming to realise that the Tory party have no policies and no idea about how we can get out of the recession.
The party`s empty rhetoric is at last making them seem what they really are a party empty of ideas without any substance at all.

Congratulations, Jack - you've managed one whole post with no typos, no lousy grammar and no spelling mistakes - unfortunately the content is still rubbish....

A bit of a worry. And even with lots of canvassing and leaflet drops in key marginals being carried out by the Tories, I understand, using illegal immigrants being paid less than the minimum wage.

Steve - If they had polled this 'jock', as you put it, the Tory figure would have improved ;-)

As I posted elsewhere the Tory vote north of the border is holding at 20% (up from 15% in 2005) and Labour are up too but at the expense of the SNP who are down to 27%, probably as they've not exactly showered themeselves in glory of late. Lib dems down to just 12% here...

As regards this UK Mori poll, the last Tory 20% lead was totally out of keeping with the other polls of the time, and most recent polls have shown a Tory lead of 10-12% as this new one does. Most elections are not 1997 style landslides so this is, despite the dificulties due to constituancy boundaries, still a healthy lead. However I agree with Sad Tory, the front bench have talent and good ideas but must work harder to raise their profile and also stick their necks out and commit to more specific policies and articulate them with more conviction.

Chris C.
Edinburgh

Let's just rejoice that we are still 10% ahead!

Comment from Ian Dales Blog

Lets get them on this as the general public need to know they are STILL being conned

Hat tip Dale and poster

Iain,

I do hope you pass this onto David Cameron to ask about in PMQs. This government has announced no end of schemes to provide 'real help now', but how many of them are actually up and running?

March 17, 2009 1:56 PM

According to PB the drop is due to a decrease in Tories certain to vote.

To increase the vote the party might try saying something that people can believe in. A commitment to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty would be good for starters.

Bizarre. No big political development and our lead falls from 20% to 10%. I think that this says a lot more about the pollster than it does about the voting intentions of the nation.

However, Labour's hubristic incompetence has been replaced by their desperation and panic. And 10% return to the fold? I think not.

What is needed now, is for Mr Cameron to step up to the plate. He needs to be clear why we ended up in this mess, how bad the mess is and what he plans to do about it.

If only the BBC would remember that we don't live in a one party state, he might just get the chance. Otherwise we'll have to wait for the election campaign itself.

I live in the North East and can't find anyone (even up here) who supports the man Jeremy Clarkson politely called a 'one-eyed Scottish idiot'. I think everyone's had enough.

Mr Cameron will win. But by then how bad will the mess be? And will he be able to breathe new life into UK plc?

Richard. You guys kill me. If you think people know about Lisbon let alone care you are living on another planet. People are concerned about jobs, keeping there homes and things like crime. They don`t care about Europe and wether the Tory party are leaving the EPP or not.
The solution to the party`s strinking lead is to come up with some decent policies on the issues that concern voters and stop looking like a one man band with a more balenced and hard working team at the top. It may help the party`s fortunes for instance that they actually had a full time cabinet which they apparently do not at present. Far too many shadow ministers are more interested in feathering there own nests than trying to win votes.

The tories could do worse than supporting those who clearly aren't to blame for the crunch.

Those who have saved, have worked hard, have not run up massive debt - recognise them as the model that should be aspired to.

Those that are on low fixed incomes - acknowledge that they cannot physically contribute any more.

Some people made millions out of the phoney brown boom - they are the ones that need to pick up the bulk of the tab by giving back what they clearly should never have taken at the time.

The missing money went on inflated past profits, thats where it needs to be reclaimed from. Not the future earnings of the new wealth generators.

"Mr Cameron will win. But by then how bad will the mess be? And will he be able to breathe new life into UK plc? "

I think so if he is wise and looks to the best as the way. I don't believe we have a hangman in D.C., or a brute. That's appealing to the mass who want a semblance of morality and do not wish ill on some people. We don't want a fight and it some ways we are far from ready for the fight should it come. Britain needs to find itself having been sceptered badly by a weak and vain Tony Blair. Gordon is perhaps not yet finished this plot of theirs has been in progress for some time. With their fellow in the White House its easy to see short term solutions being mistaken for recovery. The tent cities of the US are a crime against the dignity of American citizens in general.
Glad am I that I follow after a Crown because my lot is clearer and less vile of spirit. Should that this nation recovered itself and the blessed One ruled in place of us all. This one above all other and fitted for a crown. We should cry out. God "Save the Queen" and be done with it as defining the extent of our Brutishness's. Lets call a loyal oath that would sort out those who cannot recide in the realm.

This is why people aren't interested.

Ah well Jack Stone - Sally's peon was too early as the spelling errors and typos have re-emerged. Nontheless I agree with Sally "nil point" for your content.

"You guys kill me" - Jock Stale

It is only a matter of time ............

Tories down 6%, Libs down 3% than makes 9%, Labour up 4% . Now that leaves 5% unaccounted for. Where have those votes gone?

Folks, lets spell this out simply. We were never at 20% ahead. The Ipsos-Mori polling tends to be volatile. Pretty much all the other polls were showing around a 12% lead. Therefore talking about drops in the lead is a red herring.

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Am I the only person that thinks we're out of touch with the general populous with our apparent unquestioning support for Binyam Mohamed? I think it was a terrible mistake for DC to come out and say that a Met enquiry won't be sufficient. He'd have been more in keeping with the public mood if he'd said it was not necessary as the gloves are off in these troubled times and the security services need our unwavering support. I feel that this determination to try and gain a few muslim votes (however unllikley) is a risky strategy given how many more potential tory voters it will alienate. (Missed opportunity 1)

On a separate issue the lack of noise from our lot on Jacqui Smith and Tony McNulty's expenses leads you to the conclusion that there are plenty blue snouts in the trough as well. This probably is the case but nonetheless it presented an opportuninty for us to say that if we did get in we'd re-write the rule book for MPs expenses - no second homes (book a hotel like anyone else or have the state provide a flat or whatever) and apply the same rules on general expenses as you insist businesses do. As a businessman if I dealt with my expenses like an MP I would likely be writing this from prison (missed opportntity 2)

I'm of the firm view that it is difficult for us as an opposition party without proper figures to argue strongly with this shower on the economy. Particularly that it looks like our suggestions would be potentially be more painful in the short term at least. Most folk are more worried about next week than next year. Instead we should concentrate on things we should be strong on - law & order and defence of UK interests. If it means that we have draw back from Europe to remove the obstacles to the enforcement of appropriate policies and punishments (Human Rights springs to mind) that benefit British interests then so be it.

That unfortunately leads on to the portly issue of Ken Clarke. Why we saw the need to bring him back to combat Mandelson is beyond me. He's already agreed with labour's insane VAT reduction and undermined George Osborne on other policies as well. Furthermore it looks like europe, the place of inception of the policies that are ruining our country and loathed by our citizens, is off the menu while he's there. To combat Mandelson we'd have been better banging on relentlessly about how a twice-sacked, fraudster was not fit to wear an ermine robe while going through his finances with a fine-tooth comb. We'd probably have been rid of the b**tard by now!

In short it's time our top brass have a reality check. If the economy picks up even slghtly before the elction we're going to wind up with a lib/lab pact serving up an even more liberal dose of the same tripe we've had for the last decade. In due course that would lead to a huge swing to the right (UKIP/BNP) bolstered by the likely defection of disaffected tories and it'a all over for the conservative party.

Lets hope we see sense, move a bit to the right, and get elected. Britain is drinking her final shot in the 'last chance saloon' and can't afford to these idiots back for another round.

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