Tories back in the lead on economic competence

The headline numbers point to a Conservative majority of 122 but it will be the economic competence numbers that most encourage the Tory leadership:

"When asked to put their party allegiance aside and name the party they trusted most to steer Britain through the crisis, 35 per cent opt for the Tory team of David Cameron and George Osborne, 28 per cent for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and nine per cent for the Liberal Democrats’ Nick Clegg and Vince Cable."

Memo to Obama: Enjoy your time with Brown but know that he ain't going to be about for long.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

We might just be on our way toward a 100 seat majority. Like "the Tory Glory" of the 1959 General Election.

[Steve]

Labour up 3% is unfortunate, must be the Sir Fred effect and the "useful idiot" Deputy Leader.

Good news otherwise, especially on the economic competence. I'm glad all those Osbourne-sacking calls fell on deaf ears. He's doing a grat job.

[LondonTory]

Bout time and with the mess the govt in is over Freds pension I think the public will give them more of a kicking.

Great news, hope David is doing ok can't help wondering how he will face the return to the bearpit....

[Ewan Watt]

Given the fact that we're heading towards an Argentinian-style economic collapse, the Tories should be miles ahead on economic matters. Perhaps these numbers will improve more soon, but really-the public are not yet convinced.

[James Burdett]

Jolly good.

[John Moss]

Labour jump is down to the Lib-Dem drop from a strange high of 22% last time on this poll - which did look like a rogue.

Labour seem resolutely stuck below 30% which is almost enough to get the, can't win - so won't vote, bandwagon rolling which really could streamroller them.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Should this news really surprise us? Then again, it of course most welcome. As for the Liberal Democrats, one wonders why they even bother!

It's only a matter of time, before the inevitable Conservative victory.

[Kevin]

If people were truly convinced by the Tory message they would be 30-40 points ahead. The fact is that everyone knows that it makes no difference which of the main three parties you vote for they are all going to hand over even more power to the EU. As Hans-Gert Poettering, President of the European Parliament boasted last week, 75% of member countries' laws are already made in the EU. LibLabCon will make sure that is increased to 100%.

[snegchui]

Interesting, Are you now saying the "Do Nothing" tag has, in your opinion, been shifted completely? Or are you hoping this is the start of that tag shifting and we can hope for better very soon. I hope the latter, but still think the "Do nothing" is still not dormant and indeed can be resurrected.
Witter not is the watchword going forward.

[GB£.com]

Well done. At last the public has seen Osborne's genius. I can't wait to see him implement his plan next year, and thus, finally silence those Redwood-supporting wingnuts who will say this rise is not about Osborne's solid policy platform but about 'dissatisfaction' with the government.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

I think you are wrong Kevin. 40% ahead is nothing. We should be at least 100% ahead by now.
It is time to sack David Cameron and elect Nigel Farage as our new leader, or maybe Simon Heffer.

[Serf]

As one commentor said on Political Betting: 28% of voters still believe in the competence of Darling & Brown. How do they manage to cross the road on their own?

As much as I dislike Ken Clarke for his Quisling views, I do think that his new position is proving beneficial to us on economic competence.

[Fredrik Ingemarsson]

Remember the Labour Party ` s mistake in believing they had the 1992 general election
in the bag. The Tory Party must AVOID
complacency

[expatinsingapore]

I agree with John Moss.

1) Turnout in safe Labour seats is much, much lower than in safe Conservative seats- so if the polls continue to show a large Tory majority, I would imagine that many Labour supporters or even marginally Labour inclined voters will simply not turn out to vote. This is important because it means that there might be more "marginal" seats for the Conservatives to target.

2) I disagree very much with the "Cameron" Project- but I will give him this. I have not met a single young Brit abroad who is voting Labour. Even the most left-wing among them seem to be supporting the Conservatives.

3) I think it would be ext. important for the Conservatives to get over 50% of the vote. This would have a huge psychological and (more importantly) political impact.

4) There might be a few BNP members of Parliament if Labour tanks even more.

[Sally Roberts]

Good stuff - but "steady as she goes"! Let's not start getting euphoric - there may still be over a year to go.

[Malcolm Dunn]

I'm assuming the remaining 37% do not believe either side has the answers to solve the problems we're facing. Sadly, I'd have to include myself amongst them.
I can't see anyone anywhere in the world coming up with anything particularly credible.

[bill]

Obama isn't stupid and will have been well briefed on Brown's rep. My feeling is he will keep Brown at arms length.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

I would like to add that certain aspects of the current party agenda, do concern me. Furthermore, a few of these beliefs may well be losing votes to the opposition parties.

In particular, measures to reduce carbon emissions are the last thing which our country needs right now. They would be yet another burden to the business sector, at a time when it is already struggling with low order books and excessive legislation stifling free enterprise and productivity.

The party should also say more about the immigration crisis, and have the courage to allow our country to leave the EU.

[MG]

Good polls, keep a steady build up on the key issues.

[Raj]

I think it would be ext. important for the Conservatives to get over 50% of the vote. This would have a huge psychological and (more importantly) political impact.

It's highly unlikely, though. I don't think it's important either.

[Andrew S]

"If people were truly convinced by the Tory message they would be 30-40 points ahead"

Don't be stupid.

[Richard]

I still think we should not be to hasty,in thinking it will be 2010 GE.

Come October this year,the cat is out of the bag anyway,the element of surprise will be gone,the Media,the Public,the Conservatives will all know it will be April 2010,or June 2010.

Labour will not want a 6-8 month unofficial campaign,by the Media,and the Conservatives,before it is actually called,Labour just does not have the resources to fight that.

Another reason is borrowing & Public Services,in the budget Darling will announce a reduction in growth of Public Services,or higher borrowing,he will probably say its just this year.

Darling will not want to have to admit in the Pre-Budget NOV 09,he got his figures wrong,and even worse in the 2010 April Budget 1-2 months before June 2010 GE deadline,that taxes will have to go up quicker & higher,or Public Borrowing is worse than thought.

In short,i would say Labour would be better off going in late 2009,a quick short campaign,with the element of surprise.

I hope Tory Central Office have got their wits about them,& will not be caught by surprise.

[Dorothy Wilson]

"Given the fact that we're heading towards an Argentinian-style economic collapse, the Tories should be miles ahead on economic matters. Perhaps these numbers will improve more soon, but really-the public are not yet convinced."

Don't forget that Labour have a large "captive constituency" in the shape of many of the public sector employees and those dependent on the state. Also most people with mortgages are feeling a little better off at the moment because interest rates have come down. It probably hasn't dawned on some of them that they will be paying the price later in the shape of increased taxes.

The Conservatives need to level with the public and tell it as it is - and is going to be whoever wins the next election. That obviously carries some risks but at least if it is spelled out now the blame can be put on Labour.

[Ben Archibald]

I can see a certain logic in going a little early, but on the other hand, holy hell, he knows we might just slip up and give enough ground to not completely rout the pinkos. We mustn't be complacemt, and we mustn't do too much now to court the left at the expense of the centre. Nobody thinks we're a nasty party any more, let's be firm and fair...

[BILL REES]

Dont forget Obama stated the Cameron was a lightweight after meeting him in London.My hunch is Obama will be closer to Germany and France if Cameron ends up as Prime Minister.Europe will get stronger under Obamas foreign policy making the UK more isolated in international decision making.Whats the point of being in power in "BLIGHTY" if you have no influence around the World.

[Ben Archibald]

He's no lightweight, and Cameron will show it almost instantly after the election. By showing a positivity to be allied with America and not run by America, just as we want to be in Europe and not run by Europe, Cameron can set our course clearly and in a way the EU and Obama can respect.

[D.Scholarfield]

Brown is Blaired

From Adam Boulton SKY NEWS

"Let's hope that the Prime Minister wasn't watching CNN a moment ago. Second item on the news-channel's look at what's on the radar in the US today; Tony Blair's address to a climate change conference here in DC. No mention of GB's White House meeting with President Obama. Doh!!

Oh dear me. Not going well for Jonah on the other side of the pond.

[Richard]

Another reason why Brown will go early in my opinion is unemployment,even after a recovery in the economy,unemployment continues to rise for 8-12 months,so there will be no feel good factor until early 2011 at the earliest.

For what it is worth,i think the General Election will be called before the Pre-Budget report NOV 2009,and perhaps more importantly for Brown,before the Irish vote in OCT 2009 on Lisbon.

Brown will try to have a tie-up with the Lib Dems,offering Cabinet Positions,do not underestimate what Brown will do to hold onto power.

Do not underestimate why the UK troops are leaving Iraq in June,this in my opinion in planned for pre election pubicity.

End September early October we will go to the polls.

[Brit Expat in America]

Obama dislikes Cameron, even called him a "lightweight". He promtly returned the bust of Churchill that Bush proudly displayed in the Oval Office, and he didn't even give Brown the courtesy of a joint press conference today.

Face it, the "Special Relationship" is dead as long as Obama is president...

[HarrisonS]

Brit Expat,

As an American, I am appalled by how poorly Obama has done with the US-UK relationship so far. The bust, the moves towards protectionism, the lurch towards france/germany, it is all saddening. His treatment of Brown is embarassing and I don't even like Brown (he's a socialist) or Cameron (seems to want to be a socialist-lite to win). He must really be tone deaf to diplomacy, which is "ironical" since the dems have campaigned on the world liking us again with them in power. :(

[Dorothy Wilson]

My hunch is Obama will be closer to Germany and France if Cameron ends up as Prime Minister.Europe will get stronger under Obamas foreign policy making the UK more isolated in international decision making..."

You should broaden your horizons and have a look at some of the media coverage of the problems that are looming in "Europe" - by which, presumably, you mean the EU. Try the Economist and Der Spiegel for starters. The fault lines that were always inherent in the eurozone are beginning to widen and the need for Germany to mount a rescue is being openly discussed. No doubt the German taxpayers will just love that.

Into that mix put the strong possibility that Obama will be looking for proper support from other EU countries in Afghanistan and the picture begins to change.

[Adrian P]

Here's Ron Paul on Economics, worth a look and subscribing to.

http://www.youtube.com/user/campaignforliberty

[Gloy Plopwell]

This is disapointing but sure it's only a temporiry setback. Last month it found suspendors, truly stupendous momentum for the lib Dems. It just hasn't been piked up this time. The lib dems have clear policies and all the answers, and will overtake both Labour and Tory's this year. Watch out for a big lib Dem overall majority in 2010, and the first lib Dem cabinot the next day! Very excriting. Sarah Teather for Chancelor!

[Yet Another Anon]

In short,i would say Labour would be better off going in late 2009,a quick short campaign,with the element of surprise.
The Budget is on 22 April, in the few days after there will be talk in the press that Downing Street Sources were hinting of a General Election in the offing, the Prime Minister will go to the palace to seek a dissolution and a General Election on 4 June, Super Thursday.

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

All this talk of a 2009 election is laughable to me; much as I would love to see it.

Think only of this - Brown's entire existence is built around his pursuit of being PM (saddo that he is).

The 'heir apparent' stood aside in '94 for fear of being beaten.

He sat in Number 11 and sulked, whilst Blair won three GE's over 10 years.

And now just look at him - while we may be suffering, he's loving every minute of it. Look at me Sarah, today I met President Obama. "Yes, that's me little raggy lad from Kirkaldy!". (Don't get excited Sarah, in the same day, Obama gave more time to the Boy Scouts - he can spot a loser a mile off)

And with NO chance of victory, you think he's going to truncate his 'reign' and give us the satisfaction of trouncing him in a GE?

[Adrian]

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