New ComRes poll puts Tory lead at 12%

A new ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent has the parties on the following standings:

Also of interest will be the questions on the economy, notably the last, which suggests that the public is increasingly unconvinced by the massive borrowing upon which the Government is embarking:

"Gordon Brown has the right policies to get Britain out of recession"

• Agree - 31%
• Disagree - 58%

"Gordon Brown should focus more on finding a domestic solution to the economic crisis than a global one"

• Agree - 72%
• Disagree - 22%

"I am optimistic that the economy will improve before the end of this year"

• Agree - 27%
• Disagree - 70%

"The Government is right to increase borrowing by billions to boost the economy even if it means future tax rises"

• Agree - 30% (down from 33% in January)
• Disagree - 62% (up from 60% in January)

Jonathan Isaby

Comments

[Alex]

You need to update this; correct figures are:

CON 40(-1) LD 18(+1) LAB 28(-2)

[Peter Harrison]

Alex is comparing with the most recent ComRes poll whereas Jonathan is comparing with their last poll for the Independent. Personally, I think Alex's figures are more useful.

We should treat ComRes polls with caution. Their past vote weightings seem to vary from poll to poll. This often drives the apparent changes in outcome. Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com has raised this with ComRes but, as far as I am aware, has yet to receive an answer. One would generally expect past vote weightings to remain constant.

Putting that to one side, every single poll in 2009 has given us 40%+ and the trend of our lead is upwards. All good news but no room for complacency.

[MG]

This is broadly in line with other polls and is both good and stable. From various polls it looks like if there were an election we would get about 42%, Labour 30% and Lib Dems 18%.

[Alex]

MG - yes I think I'm with you on your prediction.

Labour appear to have a core vote of 30%; "I'm a Labour man me, I've always voted Labour and always will. Them Tories are only interested in making the rich richer and the poor poorer"

Also, the Conservatives do seem to benefit when Cameron is in the news a lot; good news for a GE campaign.

However, I do worry a little about what the coverage for The Conservatives will be like on the Bias BBC though.

[oldrightie]

However, I do worry a little about what the coverage for The Conservatives will be like on the Bias BBC though.
------------------------------------
Just Labour. it's all they're good for these days. Propaganda.

[Philip]

This is good, but the responses to the questions on the economy are very interesting indeed. That most think all this borrowing is not the asnwer, and are unconvinced by all the Government's (and the BBC's) spin about it being a 'global' problem, seeing the problem as more domestic, is significant. We should continue to proclaim (with Dan Hannan!) the message of economic responsibility etc, and how Labour have made the problem far worse in this country than it need have been. This together with our poll ratings going up whenever DC is in the news (I agree this does seem to happen!), should help us to widen the lead - I would like to see a majority of at least 200.

[Freddy]

@Philip

I hope the Conservative majority will be sky high at the next election!

You oldrightie and Alex are absolutely right about the BBC. They don't respond to complaints about bias properly either.

[ukipwebmaster]

This is getting a bit of a Pickle:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/5079476/Man-arrested-in-House-of-Commons-following-Tory-drinks-party-hosted-by-Eric-Pickles.html

[Serf]

Any poll that has us going backwards, even within the margin of error is distressing.

What does this government have to do? Gordon found in bed with a sheep? 15 Million unemployed? Introduction of Sharia Law?

They are finished, dead, deceased, kicked the bucket, and yet nearly 1 in 3 voters are insisting that they are just sleeping.

[Gary]

Polls tend to underestimate Tory support.

Gary

[Sally Roberts]

Hold your horses, ukipwebmaster! Have you never heard of drinks being spiked?

[Sally Roberts]

Gary is quite right, polls do underestimate Tory support and the feeling I get on the ground is gathering momentum that people are angry with this shower of a Labour Government and want them gone.

[grumpy old man]

Food for Thought, even if terribly unscientific and based round people who will talk to me.(Built-in bias?)
1. Many dyed-in-the-wool socialists firmly believe that the Labour movement has lost it's way and no longer represents the working man. They despise NuLab and don't like being run by the Scots. They will not change allegiance but, like Tory voters in 1997, will not go to the polls or get out and canvass. Some Labour voters will vote for the BNP in areas where the BNP have a presence as a protest vote, as Tory voters voted for UKIP in 1997 (sorry, Henry, but I was there knocking on doors). The longer Gordon Macawbers around, the further the core vote will drain away. I don't think we'll get more than 42-44% of the vote, but Labour turn-out could be as low as 27% which should give us a comfortable majority of 100.

[James]

"Any poll that has us going backwards, even within the margin of error is distressing."

I'm afraid that shows a complete lack of understanding of the whole concept of 'margin of error'!

[Malcolm Stevas]

Serf, your question: "What does this government have to do?.... nearly 1 in 3 voters are insisting that they are just sleeping," had already been answered by Alex:
"Labour appear to have a core vote of 30%; 'I'm a Labour man me, I've always voted Labour and always will. Them Tories are only interested in making the rich richer and the poor poorer' " Alex might or might not be aware that exactly the same applies to the Conservatives; on ConHome one sees constant iterations of, I'm True Blue, always voted Tory as did my father before me... etc etc - a dim-wit attitude that makes a mockery of politics. I mean, if people are going to vote in knee-jerk fashion like this it's exactly the same as semi-literate African voters choosing politicians along tribal lines, with candidates identified by symbols such as a lion or a cockerel...
I don't like polls. I don't trust them. I rejoice when results upset the polled predictions. I particularly scorn people who jump up and down with glee, crowing that "they" are up by two percentage points, or whatever. It's childish. What you should concern yourselves with is the Tories' remarkably poor showing, considering the gross incompetence & dangerous tendencies displayed by the current administration, and the fact that many voters are not exactly rushing to support the Tories even when, like me, they loathe Labour and all it stands for.

[R Anon]

Don't forget that once the Lib Dems get equal media coverage their support increases. Would they make 24 % ?

[The Bishop Swine]

"This is getting a bit of a Pickle:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/5079476/Man-arrested-in-House-of-Commons-following-Tory-drinks-party-hosted-by-Eric-Pickles.html"

Although this post is off subject, it deserves some sort of response. Anti-social behaviour as a result of alcoholic drink is a real problem in the UK. Of course this is an embarrassing incident, but its nothing more than that.

Now coming back to the poll itself we seem to have reached something of a plateau in recent weeks. What concerns me is that despite everything Labour remain only 10-12% behind at a time when their support should have completely disappeared. The big danger is that Labour and their Pinko friend in the US of A, namely the president, are able to create a false dawn recovery as a result of all the money being poured into the economy.It is possible that by this time next year many of the economic indicators will appear to signal a recovery of sorts. 10% will then be a rather small lead for Labour to recover.So the next general election is far from being a done deal, we could still loose it. Of course any such False Dawn recovery would be quickly followed by a fresh collapse and further pain, as intrest rate would have to rise to avoid an overheating economy. Add to that the very real danger of high inflation and we have a recipe for a recession lasting for a least a decade. We have to get the message across to the public that Brown is trying to pull the wool over their eyes. More importantly we must convince Joe Public that Labours strategy for recovery will undermine our nations ability to compete for a generation. Labours quick fix is a recipe for long lasting economic ruin.

[Fredrik Ingemarsson]

Remember, the Tories MUST AVOID complaceceny !

[Malcolm Stevas]

Bishop:
"..despite everything Labour remain only 10-12% behind at a time when their support should have completely disappeared..."
And why do you think this is - ?
"We have to get the message across to the public that Brown is trying to pull the wool over their eyes."
Everyone with half a brain cell knows this. You can continue trying to "get it across" 'til you're blue in the face but it won't make the thinking electorate any more enthusiastic about the Tory alternative.

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Newspapers circulation and indeed influence is far smaller than in previous era's.

Broadcasting is by far the medium that 'informs' the public of the news.

The Broadcast News is dominated by the BBC - Today on R4, 5 Live on radio, TV News Bulletins & Newsnight on BBC 2.

The absence of Conservative spokespersons is a massive threat to our democratic system. (And we need to rectify it by privatising the BBC after the next election).

Despite the disgusting BBC bias, the electorate can see what is going on, leaving only the circa 30% tribal Labour voters supporting Brown (in 1983, despite internal divisions and being led by Michael Foot, they still polled 27.6%).

And I predict that once the GE campaign starts, the BBC will not be able to ignore the Conservatives completely and Cameron will increase the lead to 15%.

[Alex]

R Anon - no

[Jack Stone]

Things will soon change once we really get down to policy and the Tories have to actually say where the cuts are going to be and who are going to lose there jobs and have there pension cut.Won`t be a very good time to be a doctor, nurse or teacher if Cameron is in Downing Street!

[Serf]

Won`t be a very good time to be a doctor, nurse or teacher if Cameron is in Downing Street!

I think you mean

Won`t be a very good time to be a diversity adviser, real nappy facilitator or community cohension monitor if Cameron is in Downing Street!

Most Conservatives I know would be happy to double the number of doctors, nurses and teachers. Its the rest of the useless rabble we would like to get rid of.

[Alex]

Jack / Draper -

Serf is spot on ... Once the Conservatives have fixed the mess your party has put our country into, it's going to be an excellent time to be a doctor, nurse or teacher

As a teacher myself, I am looking forward to it.

Also, you refer to pension cuts - mmm - that's a bit rich coming from a Brown the pension stealer (who's pension stealth tax has cost the industry over £100 billion)

[Jack Stone]

Alex. Once Cameron`s in Downing Street I hope you have a jolly good time at the job centre because be sure that is where a lot of teachers will be heading with the Tory cuts!!!

[Alex]

Jack / Draper -

You don't have to relentlessly peddle the same old tired Labour lines .... you sound like a scratched (70s) record.

Maybe try a different tack? Perhaps - although this is a long shot - people may start actually start taking your comments here more seriously.

[Cllr. Martin Curry]

The question is, is it going to be a mirror of 1992 or 1997?

In 1992 John Major refused to follow the script and roll over, and a Kinnock/Ashdown coalition was averted. (helped by the "Fuhrer Fest" in Sheffield.)

In 1997, there was a win for the "Anyone but the Tories" which mainly boosted Labour, but also helped the Lib Dems and the Nats.

At present, it seems that Labour are going down the pan, but they are not yet beaten by an opposition that doesn't appear coherent or have a resounding message.

If Cameron is unable to look like a winner with a coherent message, then Gordon could be back in, unless Labour appears to 2/3 of the electorate to be so out of control that Labour suffers the sort of defeat that the Tories were dealt in 1997.

In that case, it is possible that the Lib Dems will have held on to most of the Lib Dem/Tory marginals that have sitting Lib Dem MPs who are doing a good job, and will have taken many seats off of Labour in areas of relative Tory weakness.

In that case, David Cameron may well be on the phone to Vince Cable to offer him the chancellorship.

[Dorothy Wilson]

"What does this government have to do? Gordon found in bed with a sheep? 15 Million unemployed? Introduction of Sharia Law?

They are finished, dead, deceased, kicked the bucket, and yet nearly 1 in 3 voters are insisting that they are just sleeping."

Don't forget that at the present time anyone with a mortgage - and a job - has had an income boost because of the cuts in interest rates. I would paraphrase "It's the economy stupid" to "It's what's in my pocket stupid". Wait until it really begins to hit home that we all face massive tax increases.

Jack Stone:

Like all Labour supporters you do not seem to realise that the public sector can only exist to the extent that the private sector generates enough income to provide the taxes to pay for it. At the moment that is not the case. Teachers and everyone else will have to learn that we have to cut our clothes according to the cloth.

[Jack Stone]

Alex. They might be old but there true. Doctors, teachers, nurses there all for the chop if Cameron becomes PM.There`s one thing your have more time to post should the Tories get in!!

[David Belchamber]

"Doctors, teachers, nurses there (i.e. they're) all for the chop if Cameron becomes PM".

What absolute drivel.

These jobs are ring-fenced but under Labour: millions of people cannot find a dentist, C. diff and MRSA in hospitals because the number of beds per 100,000 people have been cut to half the normal European levels, prison budgets cut, armed forces sent to war with totally inadequate equipment and protection, the scandalous management at Stafford hospital, IT system cock-ups, "Brown's Boom and Bust", followed by a global downturn, the dithering about Northern Rock because the FSA (set up by Brown) had been asleep, 80% of new jobs given to foreign workers, half our gold reserves sold off at the bottom of the market, private pension schemes wrecked by Brown, Brown forced to borrow to pay back 1.3 million of the lowest earners for the abolition of the 10p tax rate, the dilution of standards in schools, the continuing sale of sports grounds etc etc

And on top of that the scandal of MPs' expenses!

The Labour party has forfeited the trust of this country.

[Malcolm Dunn]

I wonder if Jack has ever campaignes in Southend for the LibDems or Labour Party.He'd lose them more votes every time he opened his mouth.

[Super Blue]

Malcolm,

"Jack Stone" cannot campaign for anyone because he doesn't actually exist,

Stephen.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Blimey, my English in my last post was as bad as Jack's! How do you know he doesn't exist Superblue.? He's been posting the same half witted drivel for years.

[Jack Stone]

Superbore. Living in dream land yet again.
The Conservatives will find it hard once in government to find the cuts they seek and so will as they did before cut jobs in education and health. Tory Promises have been broken before. They will be broken again.

[Richard]

I think it may be time to take a step back for a moment & consider,how far we have come in 12 months.

A year ago,before the Local Elections,David Cameron was being called yet another failed Tory leader.

The Local Elections changed the whole political landscape.I do not think anybody understands why politicians have bounces and,why people vote the way they do,many times it defies logic,why would DC go from zero to hero over a nights poll results,more importantly why would the way some people voted in a Local Election seem to change the populations mind as a whole.

DC became the man of choice for PM almost immediately after those elections and has kept it ever since,along with his lead in the polls,all because others saw brits voting for him,even if they did not.

I believe Labour could well have their worst ever showing in the up-coming elections,and it really dosn't matter what opinion polls say,its real counted votes that matter.

Brown has no more money to bribe the electorate,unemployemnt is 'only' 2m & is expected to rise by a further 1m,there really is no sense in Brown waiting until Midnight May 10 2010,when the Blair 2005 mandate expires.

[Geoff Buckley]

Expenses (Miss Smith) An interesting thought If I was "on benifit" and was discovered to be not being truthful would I now, bearing in mind that sister Jacqui will get off "SCOT" free would I too be let off? In my dreams folks "they" would throw away the Key!! Geoff Sunbear. PS It can only get better shrieked Tony and was he right ( he did mean LABOUR)

[Richard]

Personally i think all this talk of a 2010 GE is wrong,it just does not make sense.

What do we know about 2010,unemployemnt is a lagging indicator,meaning even after positive GDP growth returns,unemployemnt continues to rise,political speak for no'feel good factor'.

Even more of a problem for Labour,the Budget Deficit will be the highest in the nations history in 2010.

Would Brown really go to the country 1-2 months after announcing that,would he really have all those bad headlines for the sake of 1-2 months more in power,even Brown is not that stupid.

So in my opinion Brown would want to go before Mar-Apr 2010,Jan-Feb 2010 out of the question,GE's are never held on those dates.

The only possible choice is late 09,maybe when the summer has gone,weather may knock a couple of percent of the turnout.

Brown also has a massive head-ache over the Lisbon treaty 2nd vote in Ireland,in October 09.

My guess he will want to go before the Irish vote on Lisbon again,either outcome is a disaster for Brown,Yes or No vote he is on a loser with the UK electorate.

[Sally Roberts]

"Living in dream land yet again"

Where's dream land, then Jack? Is it near "tractorland" - another of your little fabrications?

It all sounds rather like a theme park (am I thinking of Legoland perhaps?) - perhaps that's where we will go in ten years time to laugh at all those funny socialists!

[Beowulff]

Considering the Labour Government is both totally incompetent and corrupt, this is a pathetic lead by the Conservative Party.

Unless the Conservative Party ditches woolly headed thinkers like Kenneth Clarke from the Shadow Cabinet, and adopts Conservative policies again, then no matter how nice 'Call me Dave' is, I'm voting UKIP when it matters.

[Sally Roberts]

Seem to be a lot of UKIP sockpuppets here tonight!

[Richard]

It is obvious what Brown wanted to do,British Troops coming home before the Amercans,Irish PM putting back vote on the Lisbon Treaty vote to Oct 09,G20 where it was widely expected Brown was going to announce a further stimulus package.

God Bless Mervyn KIng,i don't personally think he is up to the job,he has however scuttled Brown's plans,Brown wanted a G20 stimulus,he would have had a poll bounce, the troops home,Conservatives isolated on not wanting spending,Obama on side,Eu on side.

He would have called an GE within weeks.

Now his plans are in tatters.

[Super Blue]

I am not even going to ignore Troll-Stone's latest abuse (can anyone remember who said that first?)

PS Malcolm: you were only one letter out!

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Talk of a 2009 GE is fantasy. This sad, inadequate man sulked for a decade whilst Tony stole 'his' glory.

Now this is his moment. Look at the deluded joy of Gordon the World Leader. He's loving every minute of it. And if you think he's going to call a 2009 GE that he'll lose and truncate his time as PM, your political antenna isn't tuned in at all.

Look at the polls last April. Labour trailed by 12% then as they do now. He'll hold on waiting for something/anything to happen.

But it won't - it will happen, is that it will get worse. Much worse.

Labour are heading into the abyss. The leadership putsch failed last year and many Labour MP's will be out of work in just over a year.

These are THE ONLY job losses that can make me smile. Good riddance to bad rubbish I say!

[Sally Roberts]

" He's been posting the same half witted drivel for years."

Chaps, I've told you....It's the dog...he tells Jack what to say and Jack types it (badly)!

[Gloy Plopwell]

Wonderful suspendors news for the Lib Dems!!
Some polls have had us on 12 or 13 pecent last year, and 11 when we had to decapitate poor Ming.
We'll overtake Labour then the Tories this year, its really excriting!
A Lib Dem majority of 60 next year. Vince has done so well on the Economy that we need him as Agriculture secretary, and can use Lyne Featherstone as Chancellor.