Cameron's personal rating up sharply in new YouGov survey

A significant 17% increase in public approval of David Cameron has been recorded by YouGov in their monthly poll for The Sunday Times.  The only possible explanation must be the wave of public sympathy for the Tory leader produced by the tragic death of his precious son, Ivan.

The increased approval for Mr Cameron has not translated into increased support for the Conservative Party, however.  Tory strategists had hoped that the furore over Sir Fred Goodwin's pensions arrangements might have dented Labour's standing.  The poll will not have absorbed the impact of yesterday's significant apology by David Cameron.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Cleethorpes Rock]

More "fringe recoil"- this time the Libido Dems benefiting.

It will be interesting to see how Cameron's "apology" will be received, and whether Brown and Darling's grandstanding at the G20 will get some Labour voters back onside.

[David (One of many)]

Indeed, Cleethorpes. My suspicion is that G20 is going to be a damp squib for Brown. I don't say that just because I want it to be, but because I've seen Ministers do little other than try to manage expectations for it. Suddenly it's not all about saving the world and going forward with a united agenda; it's all about 'discussions' now.

And I'm guessing this poll was a Wed-Fri number? So it came right at the beginning of Cameron coming back into the public eye. 10 points isn't vast, but it's good to know that we didn't slip back in Cameron's absence - and Brown's dominance of the news - and I have confidence the lead will grow again.

[Joseph S.]

The thing that always irritates me the most about these polls is seeing the measly majorities that conservative landslides produce, it just goes to show you just how much the boundaries system is in Labour's favour.

[B Griffiths]

Joseph S. Your are right. The current system is very favourable to Labour. Which is why when the Conservatives win power they really need to address this undemocratic inbalance (along with the West Lothian question of Scottish and Welsh MP's voting on England-only matters). Roll on the election.

[josh]

David (one of many) You want the G20 to be a damp squib? So you don't want anything done to get us out of this mess that we are in? That is typical Tory arrogance, Party before country. Shame on you.

[LS]

Anything that the leaders agree will be counter-productive. It's the very nature of summits (see Yes Prime Minister for an explanation).

[David (One of many)]

Oh, give me a break, Josh! G20, like every such meeting like it that has gone before, is nothing but a £50 million circle-jerk; with the host PM or President at the centre. Brown was oozing with delight at the prospect of hosting this thing, and the fact that it's already looking DOA is fantastic from that point of view.

I don't quite know how you managed to get a high horse up Gordon Brown's bottom, but you've succeeded. The difficult thing is getting off it and out of there...

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I agree that the G20 is a waste of space. None of the economic problems will go away until we stop printing money, strip politicians of their power to create money out of thin air not backed up by assets, abandon fiat currency, return to sound money and start living within our means.

[Raj]

I'd be surprised to see a poll boost given Brown has had most of the media coverage recently.

[Janet]

Not only should we start living within our means ,so should all the MPs and other public 'servants' start living within our means. Give them all a fair - not generous- salary to take into account any extra expenses they may incur. The powers that be who hand out these ridiculous salaries and pensions at our expense, convince themselves that they have to pay these salaries to get the best people. Judging from the disasterous last 11 years they certainly did not employ the best. We need some good sensible honest hardworking people not the sort that currently sitting in positions of power and control.

[Jack Stone]

Its not the G20 meeting that could transform the governments fortunes but the Budget. If Darling pulls a few rabbits out of the hat like bringing forward the 45p tax band then you will see the Conservative lead drop in an instance.
What many don`t realise on this site that the cards are all still in the governments hands. They can influence events and there own fortunes the opposition can do very little but react.

[David (One of many)]

"... the cards are all still in the governments hands. They can influence events and there own fortunes the opposition can do very little but react."

And yet one of the most significant hallmark's of Gordon Brown's leadership of the Labour Party has been the complete and total failure to do anything but react. To take just two examples; Inheritence Tax and the independent Baby P enquiry. With the first they pretended they were going to do it all along, despite rubbishing it in the first instance and then, when they did try to copy it, not doing it properly. And with the second, Balls had to quickly promise a review after realising how badly Brown's refusal to agree to one was going down. The government might like to think that they control events, but past evidence has proven quite the opposite to be true.

[Steve Foley]

I feel that, unless David Cameron or one of the Tory leading lights was caught during the Election Campaign committing an act of Gross Indecency in a public toilet with someone who was under-age, Labour are doomed at the next General Election, only the size of the Tory majority is in question.

Brown lost his opportunity two years ago to hold and win a General Election in the October after he took over from Blair. That window soon closed. The Labour Party lost its opportunity to ditch him last year for a better leader. They are now too close to the end-game to do so now with any hope that Brown's replacement, be that Harman, one of the two Millibands, Alexander, Balls, Blears or whoever could do as John Major did in late 1990 and turn the tide.

Sorry Jack Stone but even a pessimist such as myself now feels that a Conservative Victory in 2010 is the most likely outcome. I will think of you as the results come in and have a little laugh.

[Richard]

I seems like the polls are just stuck in a rut at the moment,obvioulsy not bad for us,we need to give a reason for people to vote for us,not just hate for Labour.

Why have we been silent on the immigration debate? people are looking for old fashion Tory policies,i believe.

DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.

DEPORT ALL IMMIGRANTS LET IN,AND THEN WENT ON TO ABUSE OUR TRUST & COMMITED CRIME.

let me be frank,would these have been old Conservative policies by any chance,in the past?

If you went back 10 years,replaced the BNP,whose policies these are,with the Conservative logo,be honest would you be furious and calling them extreme racist policies,ME NEITHER.

[Richard]

I think i am right in saying,UKIP/BNP,are now both bigger than the SNP,if you count their percentage vote.

Obviously the SNP,is just a Scottish Party,however i think it should give food for thought.

[David Parker]

Richard,
Unfortunately we can no longer deport either all illegal immigrants, or even those who have subsequently commited serious crimes since arriving here, except in strict accordance with EU legislation, which has already specifically prevented the deportation of several such criminals.

I think we are all in danger of being side tracked by the present red herring of insisting upon apologies, left, right and centre. What is more important is that the politicians, of all parties, should actually recognise and admit that, to a greater or lesser extent, they all bear part of the blame for encouraging (or failing adequately to denounce) a culture of materialistic greed and irresponsibility in both public and private sectors.

Whilst any party, or senior politician remains in denial of this, there is little hope of them being able to convince the public that they have the competence or credibility to halt, let alone begin to reverse the current crisis.

Cameron's current "apologia" is certainly a shrewd step in the right direction, in terms of party politics, but does it go that essential step further, in putting forward clear cut constructive alternative proposals?

To revert to Richard's earlier point about immigration, in Britain we have certain very urgent issues concerning this, which are high upon the list of voters concerns,
but will also certainly conflict with EU law. I believe that most of us who wish to see a Conservative Government also wish to see one with a great deal more independent freedom and control over its national policies and that this should be unequivocally stated in its manifesto. As yet, I see no chance of this happening under Cameron, but without it this would not be a party which I would define as Conservative.

[John Prendergast]

Out canvassing today on Staffs/shropshore borders. One man told me he would vote for Attila the hun rather than Brown!

[Chris C.]

Richard,

Voting figures for Westminster in Scotland from Yougov are as yet incomplete but are Lab 37%, SNP 27%, Con 20%, LD ?%. Hard to tell with no LD figure but would probably lead to SNP having aprox 9-10 seats and Conservatives aprox 6-7. I suspect you're right that BNP/UKIp would almost certainly be larger than SNP in votes on that basis.

Also Conservatives on 15% for Holyrood so being up to 20% for Westminster is encouraging.

Chris C.
Edinburgh

[Jack Stone]

Steve Foley. Ten months is a long time in politics. Once Cameron starts saying what the cuts are going to be the opinion poll lead will soon disappear.

[David (One of many)]

Jack, you really are the most boring kind of troll. You're just a broken record of the same old crud; cuts, racists, toffs, substance, blah, blah blah. It's like you feasted on Hazel Blears and are now spending an eternity vomiting her up again.

[Joe James B]

Joseph,
I strongly suspect that if the Conservatives polled this sort of level in a General Election (likely), then the electoral map would be so different anyway, that the bias would unwind - although only up to a point (about the 1992 level when it was still distorted).

Also these projected majorities don't always take into account swings from the Lib Dems, where we can make large gains if we do the work.

The distortion is largely caused by low Labour turnouts in their safe seats. But I think low turnout is kind of bad for democracy as a whole, regardless of party.

Also, a situation where the Conservatives are on 40+ should mean they attract less tactical voting against them.

I would also hope we have an tough marginal seats program aswell.

[Freddy]

@Chris C

Was this part of the Scottish You Gov poll mentioned on the BBC?

[Steve Foley]

As a quick rule of thumb it would appear that whilst 41% of the vote will result in a Tory victory it really needs 43% to ensure a decent working majority to last a full Parliament. Watch the share of the vote as well as the lead over Labour and do not discount the spoiler effect of the Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent UKIP and the BNP as regards saving Labour's bacon in some Lab-Con marginals.

A good Scot-Nat result North of the Border is of course favourable to the Conservatives as it will hurt Labour far more than us.

[Mary O'Boyle]

To say sorry is easy aand usless. The only thing that matters is to get things right. In these touchy feely P.C Times It seems that the conservative leadership is playing to that element in society. We need firm tough policies if we are ever to straighten this country out again. No matter what people say About Mrs Thatcher it was her toughness that pulled this country back from the brink. We know David C has to be careful what he says and that be is a modern man,husband and father but I must say he needs much more than that to be Prime Minister

[Chris C.]

Freddy,

Not as far as I know, usual BBC non-mention of polls policy, but the Sunday Times in Scotland led with its polls, though they concentrated on the fact that Labour had overtaken SNP in support for Holyrood for first time since the 2007 election.

That may seem odd to people south of the border but may have more to do with decline in SNP fortunes than any particular success on Labour's part.

If you want to see full listings they are here: http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Scottish_ST_March09.pdf

It's a 'proper' poll with sample of about 1400 so the Scottish voting figures should be fairly accurate (which they are not when drawn from UK wide polls as a rule). Crossing my fingers, Tories moving in right direction up here, we could yet post 21-22% at the election, would go from 4th to 3rd in overall voting and would be a solid increase from just 16% in 2005, especially in a four party system.

Chris C.

[Chris C.]

Sorry should have added that the Westminster voting intentions in Scotland were Lab 37%, SNP 27%, Con 20%, LD 11%.

Off the top of my head the Lib Dem figure is about half what it was in 2005

Chris C.