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'Labour is still closing the gap on the Conservatives in the latest ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent on Sunday. The Tory lead is 11 points, which is only just enough for David Cameron to secure a majority in the House of Commons.'

Con 41% (-3)
Lab 30% (+2)
LD 17% (-)
Other 12% (+1)

Interesting. If you actually read the poll synopsis by clicking on the link. Although the Tories are ahead, the headline figures are only half the story and it doesn't make for great reading. And as a Conservative blogger said in last weeks Telegraph, Labour only need 36% to retain power.

Source - Independent.

Let's hope that the next lot of people polled haven't read yesterday's and today's Conservative Home with everyone fighting like rats in a sack. Then we might stand a chance of remaining at those figures....

Why is that Sally?

George Osborne initiated this row Sally.

Why is it when I speak to Conservative party members they always shudder when you mention little Georgy's name? And I am talking well before this little fiasco. Is he genuinely not liked that much?

Well David Cameron also said "that the rich would have to pay their 'fair share' to rescue the economy." and he's right.

Osborne has said that the Conservatives need to be honest and he is right and at the same time he is reminded everyone of the woeful state of the economy and things to come. He has highlighted the lack of spending restraint under New Labour et etc.

What Sally refers to is that YOU and others are doing the Labour Party's job for then by pouncing on one thing GO said and laying into him for it; and let's get this straight, this is 45% on earnings OVER GBP150,000 (although admittedly that could be worth 3 beans and a button in a few years)

As John Redwood says today, GO "should settle his income and other tax levels once he has taken office", he, Osborne, can be CLEAR on what he wants when he sees the freeking books and sees what we're all 'in for'.

Talk about the debt, talk about the worst finances ever, talk about Brown's bubble but WHY, talk about record unemployment rises...especially when polls are static a 30 vs. 40%, we don't want to concentrate on anything that can help Labour.

Sally - only committed people read political blogs, but the comments tend to reflect mood swings etc. While I respect your loyalty at all costs( except when Israel is involved ), we need to debate major changes in policy. Very few voters will change their vote due to a blog discussion.

" I was going to vote Conservative but when I saw the discussion on ConHome on the 45p Tax Band I decided to stick with Labour. " is this what you think Sally?

'talk about record unemployment rises' You quite clearly were not around in the 80's.

The Conservative Party has said it will reduce the public debt so it can't then turn around and say it will not implement the 45% rate on over £150k. In the longer term the party has said it wants to reduce taxes for everybody but the public finances have to be put in order first.

"Very few voters will change their vote due to a blog discussion." will.b, there is another post on here called 'quadruple whammy'...about the Spectator and the DT also slagging Osborne, added to Boris Johnson and no doubt a few others...all to Labour's glee. It isn't just on this blog.

Josh, I was around in the 80's, an ardent, vociferous fan of the great Margaret Thatcher. Record rise feb 2009, last month 138,000.

Let's not get into a debate about WHY things were necessary in the 1980s because you know as well as I do.

Span Ows - thank you for your words of common sense.

will b. - You are being frankly disingenuous! You are as aware as I that the electorate are not going to decide purely on a debate on Conservative Home! Are you aware however that in tomorrow's media this "spat" will be reported - and reported as being the Conservative Party's Grassroots when in fact we know that those debating on here represent a cross-section of opinions which covers those from the Conservative Party, those from other parties and those of none.

I am incandescent with rage about what has gone on here. Up and down the country today, a Saturday, bands of loyal hard-working Conservative activists have been out canvassing and delivering. They are heartened and buoyed up by the fact that we have a good chance of forming the next Government by this time next year. Now you may mock those activists for their loyalty -as you mock me - but they are fighting for what they (and I) believe in - a Conservative Government to rid us of the Cancer of this rotten, stinking Labour Shower that we have ruling over us at the moment - and have been cursed with for far too long!
Thanks to someone whose ego is larger than their sense of loyalty, team spirit and thought for others' sensibilities, someone who has recklessly decided to light the blue touchpaper and retire... Those loyal hardworking activists and ALL of us will be betrayed.
I hope that those responsible will be able to live with themselves when the next Conservative victory is thrown carelessly down the sink like so much dirty washing-up water.

This is your Europe moment all over again Sally.

@will b

Individual voters may not read ConservativeHome but you can be sure that the media do.

I remember hearing misquoted comments from this site that I had read some hours earlier. Naturally I complained.

I had hoped that this lack of self discipline was a thing of the past and I am heartened that most of the comments I read were not against the party's position on this subject.

Unlike the "grammars row" I don't think that this will find much support with most newspapers or the general public. Lets face it - how many people do you know who earn £145,000pa?

"This is your Europe moment all over again Sally."

**** ***!

As I thought the £150 45% tax issue is only in the Spectator, which very few read, and the Telegraph.

Frankly I stopped taking the Telegraph some years ago because they were always, and I mean always, having a go at Cameron. It used to be a good read - it is quite boring nowadays.

This controversey won't even affect the vast majority of activists anyway. The next time I go out to help my local candidate there will be just as many turning up, and indeed we are getting more every month. People seem more interested in the general message and turfing the current lot out rather than individual political statements which will probably change within a year anyway. People on here just like to get angry with George whenever they're given the excuse, and yet when we do win the election it will partly be the result of his tactical expertise.

Hear Hear Mr B!

Mr B: "People on here just like to get angry with George whenever they're given the excuse, and yet when we do win the election it will partly be the result of his tactical expertise."

You're more right than you know. This has been a tactical move by Osborne, not a strategic move. Unfortunately, the Tory Party has never been much good at understanding the difference, e.g. Michael Howard deciding ID cards were a good thing. I forget who were his chief advisers at the time.

joshuwahwah said:

"Why is it when I speak to Conservative party members they always shudder when you mention little Georgy's name? And I am talking well before this little fiasco. Is he genuinely not liked that much?"

Of course it's completely wrong of you to ape the Labour ad hominem card(s) they play ad nauseam, but you are right about the weakness of the Tory 'New Inner Circle' - to a certain extent.

Cameron generally generated good will and optimism when he was elected. He is widely backed - and he still enjoys that faith. But no one realised at the time that he came as a package. You know: CAMERON, complete with built-in Osborne (basic tenets not included).

Osborne should have been an optional extra.

Close friends make poor allies - in any walk of life.

Sally, there are a good number of people who believe that pledging to raise tax will do nothing to help the economy.

This is not the Labour party. Last time I checked the Conservatives still allowed debate and differing viewpoints. This is not a loyalty issue as you are trying to make out, but a discussion about what is the right thing to do - something that no longer happens in the dictatorial Labour party.

Political parties need debate such as this. They are made stronger by members challenging ideas that are presented so we might arrive at a position that puts the interests of the country first and foremost.

Frankly I am fed up to the back teeth of people who keep arguing that we should abandon principle and keep our heads under the parapet in case some people choose not to vote for us. I am fed up with debate being shut down by people who suggest questioning party positions is disloyal.

The party I joined formulated its policy positions based on what it believed to be right for this country. I did not always agree with the outcome, but at least I could respect the democratically determined decisions.

However, too many people now seem to think the party should adopt positions on the basis of trying to limit the amount of criticism we would get from our opponents. That is not something I respect. It is political cowardice and our leadership needs to put an end to it. I believe the electorate will thank us for it.

"This is your Europe moment all over again Sally."

**** ***!'

HAHAHAHAHHA.

Is this a game? whoo hoo? Right here goes. Is it?

Blue tit?

Did I win?

"Calm down my dears", if Snotty Brown can rig Glenrothes he can certainly rig and itty bitty pollster.
The dreadful rioting is yet to come.

Good on yer Sally! I should ignore him, just scroll down past his comments, I do now, he is just not worth it!

Well said Sally Roberts. From my point of view the Editor is much to blame for the noise. He sets a narrative that other bloggers and the MSM (lazily) take up (as well as NuLiebor trolls like Josh). I've seen it before. Does Tim have an ego problem or would he prefer the Conservatives not to win except on his terms?

Sally - I was out today helping my candidate. This issue didn't come up on the doorstep once.

You seem to be playing your own role in Tory split story. Every loyal comment you make gets ten comments back. Don't be surprised that Conservatives don't like increased tax rates.

We are not being disloyal, we are just being Conservative.

OK if my innocuous comment is passed over I am going to bed!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5025714/Britain-at-risk-of-serious-social-unrest-report-warns.html

Worth a quick look.

Maybe we should be shouting for 50p in the £ now to get ahead of the game and stop labour setting the agenda. Seriously these poll figures are not good enough most governments recovery towards polling and that will see us firmly in hung parliament territory. Remember 1970 Wilson had leads of up to 12 points on the eve of olling and than lost to Heath!

Only this far ahead after all the chaos of recent months, why? Remember all governements make up groung before an election a few more points and we are in hung parliament territory or worse... In 1970 on the eve of poll lbour were reported to be between 8-12 points ahead. No new bets on a Labour victory were being taken yet \heath won with a majority of 30+ Current performance = not good enough show some B******s Dave and sack George.

Polling not olling, must buy a new keyboard.

What happened to the 20% lead and the Conservatives mid-40s ratings? The Tories should over 45% with such an incompetent government. It seems that HM Opposition has a credibility problem, especially on the economy, with large sections of the electorate.

These polling figures are appalling. Cameron should resign immediately, and then call for 69% income tax rates.

>>Frankly I am fed up to the back teeth of people who keep arguing that we should abandon principle and keep our heads under the parapet in case some people choose not to vote for us. I am fed up with debate being shut down by people who suggest questioning party positions is disloyal. <<

Here, here.

"Thanks to someone whose ego is larger than their sense of loyalty"

Sally, this is not about egos (who the Hell knows or cares who I am?) but about principles and tactics. I think it was morally, economically and tactically wrong of Osborne to say what he did. Had Osborne not mentioned anything about the 45p rate we wouldn't be having this row, I'm shocked he didn't see it coming.

I am bored with this now. Something useful to keep down your own personal contributions to the Govt coffers. I think this will close, I can see people taking down their neighbours and local MPs numbers.
Ireland winned the Grand Slam for the first time in 61 years. Thank God the noisy bastards have packed up to go home and I am off to bed.

http://www.i-database.co.uk/

Thought you might be interested to know that following the UK Government's freedom of information act you can now get access to ALL speed camera offences registered in the last 12 months. Did you know that every time your car goes past a speed camera, even1mph over the set limit, it is registered and put on a database? You only get a ticket if you are way over the limit or, (this is the bit that I didn't know) if you receive over 10 near misses, you will be classed as a serial offender and get a ticket the next time you go just over the limit. This is why you hear of people being done for 34mph in a 30mph limit area, whilst others doing 39 do not.

>>http://www.i-database.co.uk/
Thought you might be interested to know that following the UK Government's freedom of information act you can now get access to ALL speed camera offences registered in the last 12 months. <<

Snegchui, is anybody still stupid enough to fall for this? This joke has been going around for ages.

Quote below from Mike Smithson of Political Betting:

"A principle driving force behind the latest changes has been the past vote weighting proportions used. For reasons that I cannot fathom they seem to change with every poll."

And that joshuwahwah, "36% to retain power" is the real scandal of the gerrymandered state we are in. 21st Century Rotten Boroughs where tiny constituencies from the middle of cities send too many Labour MPs to Westminster and inequitable over representation of Wales and Scotland.

Quote below from Mike Smithson of Political Betting:

"A principle driving force behind the latest changes has been the past vote weighting proportions used. For reasons that I cannot fathom they seem to change with every poll."

Posted by: Dave B | March 22, 2009 at 06:57

False memory syndrome.

Remember how nobody remembered ever voting for Blair? Everybody is now "remembering" they voted Tory, so this depresses the poll result for the Conservatives.

Key question is the, "if there was a general election tomorrow, would you prefer a Con Govt under Cameron or a Lab Govt under Brown?" The result of this Q when asked has been pretty solidly 60/40 Tory for about 15 months.

"I thought George Osborne was wise to duck this simple bouncer today. He should settle his income and other tax levels once he has taken office and has worked out the full mess he has inherited. The Conservatives have no need to make this silly stunt a big issue. They should make the stunts the issue instead".

John Redwood says it all.

I have to say, ConservativeHome is a massive gift to our opponents, as Peredix says. It will come back to haunt us at the general election. That's why registration should be brought in. What's more important to Tim - a Conservative victory or letting trolls have their say in the names of 'debate' and 'free speech'?

People like Sally are the linchpins of our Party. She works hard, is loyal with a no-nonsense and independent streak, yet she and others like her are personally savaged on this site from mischief-making trolls from other parties or fat, lazy 'arm chair general' Tories who are far too important to leave their Krispy Kremes and do the work on the ground - where elections are won and lost.

Thank you Justin. Much appreciated.

What on earth is this headline on about? All the polls seem pretty stable to me if you look at the general trend.

ComRes is saying that there has been a 5% switch directly from Lib Dem to Labour in the last month? Why?

Isn't it more likely that they underestimated Labour's rating a month ago, overestimated the Lib Dems, and now that the figures have 'noramilsed' they're trying to cover up the error by claiming that it shows Labour is "stabilising".

Actually it shows that we should always ignore polls that look dodgey whether they show exaggerated Tory leads or large swings back to Labour.

The reality is that the parties on the ground will be neck and neck at the next election, with no great enthusiasm for either party. The Tories will perform better in the marginal seats but the result will still be a hung parliament. Lets not get too carried away.

I really think DC dosn't get it,Britain is not looking for another Tony Blair,the British people want real powers repatriated from the European Parliament & a real immigration policy,including removing illegals.

Two days ago there was a riot in calais,illegal immigrants who want to get to the UK causing serious trouble,it was all over the French news,did anybody hear about it on our news? i am really worried
about the censorship of our news,or more the fact the media seem to give the Government line.

I.E.

The case of the loan shark on Friday,all the news said the same line,it is frightening,they all claimed'HE WAS JAILED INDEFINATELY'and they all used the same words.

In fact the person involved was jailed for 6,1/2 yrs,he should have got more than that for the rape alone.

Example 2,

Labour MP Shahid Malik has handed the BNP a massive propaganda victory just weeks before the European elections.

In 1997 we got our first Muslim MP. In 2001 we had two Muslim MPs. In 2005 we had four Muslim MPs. In ša Allah, in 2009 (or) 2010 we'll have eight or ten Muslim MPs. In 2014 we'll have 16 Muslim MPs. At this rate the whole parliament will be Muslim."

"I am confident, as Britain's first Muslim minister, that, in ša Allah, in the next thirty years or so, we'll see a prime minister who happens to share my faith."


LABOURHOME.


Did anybody hear about this on the media,i sure didn't,it's like living in a Communist Police State,where's the right wing media?

For anyone reading this,who thinks i am going over the top,i am a big Football fan,i listen to TALKSPORT like a religion.

If you want to be convinced listen to this radio station for just 30 mins,every advert break there are a least 2 Governemnt adverts,in fact the majority of all the adverts on this commercial radio station are Government.

I think it would be a mistake to try to read too much into these recent polls, since they probably reflect approval or disapproval of the perceived current performances of the parties, rather than voting intentions at the next election.
It is difficult to conceive why anyone, other than a brain dead tribal voter who was born Labour and will die Labour, should actually want to see another term of Labour power; just how truly awful does a government have to be before its saner supporters will change their allegiance?

It is easy to see, however, why both the unaligned and the wavering labour voters might still indicate a labour preference to the pollsters, in the hope of influencing certain Tory policies. My guess would be that the Conservative figures are fairly reliable evidence of voting intentions, whereas the Labour ones are much less predictable.

Where are these Brown supporters? Up here in the North East, I can't find one.

Go back to last summer when they got stuffed in Glasgow. Exactly what have they done since then to boost their popularity?

Polls can say what they like. Be warned Mr Brown, the truth is that the electorate are waiting for you.

But then you already know that don't you which is why you haven't called an election...


What you have to remember is that the tories need to be about 9% ahead in the popular vote to get a majority of one in 2010. This is because of the bias in the electoral system against the tories. Remember too that they will need to capture 128 seats-something they have never done in any election in their history. This is a huge mountain to climb.
Also governments tend to gain at least 5% in the final year of a parliament. This is why the current tory lead is so worrying. for them. If they are 11% now when they should be 20% ahead, they are likely to be only 6% now on voting day at the very best which would deny them a majority.

First, the Tories are pumping Ashcroft's dubious wealth into marginal constuencies, which will create a big swing to the Tories.

Second, the populace doesn't so much care what the Tory policy is on 45% only that they are not unified.

As I said a few days ago, only the appearance of disunity could possibly keep the Tories out of power at the next election.


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