What is the principal reason that the Conservatives are 'back'? It was the question I asked on Thursday and your answers are in. 1,296 voted and your answers are summarised in the wordle below (click on the image to enlarge):
Nearly 80% of you explain the Tory lead primarily in terms of Labour failure. Economic failure being the top reason.
Here are the full numbers:
- Labour's economic failure: 34.2%
- The unpopularity of Gordon Brown: 19.6%
- Labour has been in power too long: 13.4%
- David Cameron’s message of change and leadership qualities: 11.5%
- Labour's general failure: 11%
- Getting rid of the things voters didn't like about the Conservatives: 2.2%
- The strength of the Tories' 'top TV team’: 2.1%
- Positive Tory policies on inheritance tax, Lisbon Treaty etc: 1.7%
- The Tories' economic message that Britain is already indebted enough: 1.7%
- The creation of a gentler, greener conservatism: 1.1%
- The weakness of the Liberal Democrats: 0.7%
- The strength of the party organisation: 0.5%
- Wooing of the BBC and Guardian: 0.1%
The things that Team Cameron have done are very important - not least for determining what we do in government and the chances of that government succeeding but the vote confirms the old adage that governments lose elections more than oppositions win them.
We also asked respondents to rate each of the factors on a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 was significant for the Tory recovery. Here are the results of that survey:
- Labour's economic failure: 8.67
- The unpopularity of Gordon Brown: 8.49
- Labour's general failure: 7.85
- Labour has been in power too long: 7.61
- The Tories' economic message that Britain is already indebted enough: 6.79
- David Cameron’s message of change and leadership qualities: 6.78
- Positive Tory policies on inheritance tax, Lisbon Treaty etc: 6.36
- The strength of the Tories' 'top TV team’: 6.20
- Getting rid of the things voters didn't like about the Conservatives: 5.74
- The strength of the party organisation: 5.48
- The weakness of the Liberal Democrats: 5.11
- The creation of a gentler, greener conservatism: 4.76
- Wooing of the BBC and Guardian: 4.42
My biggest quarrel with the result is the low number given to the wooing of the BBC. Team Cameron have been tactically astute in ending the party's cold war with the BBC and realising its centrality in informing the British people about politics.
When the survey respondents were then asked to say which of five elements of
'decontamination' had been MOST effective in winning over voters the
results were:
- A gentler conservatism concerned for the poor: 51.1%
- A concern for civil liberties: 36.5%
- A greener conservatism concerned with climate change: 7.8%
- More women and ethnic minority candidates: 2.4%
- Greater respect towards gay people: 2.2%.
Tim Montgomerie
No surprises there. For heaven's sake just be a Party with fixed principles. Forget the focus groups and the polls; just get on with formulating Conservative Party policies as opposed to this socialist sh*t we have to endure at the moment.
Given the Court Ruling that the Labour Manifesto was not one to be relied upon, how will that affect us?
Posted by: Susan | March 14, 2009 at 16:33
Could our leadership help us woo the poor a bit? I'm not hearing any of it.
Posted by: Will S | March 14, 2009 at 16:47
Just as well the Tory membership voted in Cameron as their leader - they clearly couldn't have decontaminated their party without him
Posted by: Get real | March 14, 2009 at 16:51
The Editor says My biggest quarrel with the result is the low number given to the wooing of the BBC. Team Cameron have been tactically astute in ending the party's cold war with the BBC and realising its centrality in informing the British people about politics.
But is this wooing of the BBC done by compromising too much conservatism? Maybe the respondents to the survey care more for true conservative principles than accommodating the obsessions of the metropolitan liberal-left elite and their media outlets.
It does not surprise me at all that various aspects of Labour’s failure, plus things like DC's leadership qualities, concern about the poor, and his messages on mending broken society etc (when voters are aware of the results of the broken society all around), are seen as more important factors in the Tory lead. Yes, the survey result says it all.
Posted by: Philip | March 14, 2009 at 17:00
Nearly 80% of you explain the Tory lead primarily in terms of Labour failure.
Good, now I think I'm owed some apologies from the people who, whenever I've pointed this out, have accused me of being some kind of right-wing nutter.
Incidentally, while we're at it, I notice that Cameron has now officially admitted that he was wrong to be so supportive of Labour economic policy. So we could also use some apologies from the people who, when I and others disagreed at the time, were so keen to tell us how out of touch we were.
Posted by: Alex Swanson | March 14, 2009 at 17:20
I agree with you Get Real.
As for the results of the Conservativehome poll - I'm not surprised. The inhabitants of this site are far more right wing than most Conservative supporters!
I think UK Polling Report shows the real picture. Just look at Cameron's approval ratings on that site.
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 17:23
Survey broadly in line with key factors although I do agree with Tim that the wooing of parts of the media was important. I think really some of the issues cluster together. Labour being in too long, Brown and economic failure are all similar parts of an overall problem. Equally a more caring approach and wooing the media are parts of another cluster of issues.
Posted by: Matt Wright | March 14, 2009 at 17:24
@Freddy:
Cameron's approval ratings from the members who take part in ConHome surveys are invariably in the high 80s or early 90s.
Posted by: Tim Montgomerie | March 14, 2009 at 17:27
Since the BBC are still producing the same biased output, what is the difference?
I just hope that we clean them out when in power.
Posted by: HF | March 14, 2009 at 17:46
"For heaven's sake just be a Party with fixed principles. "
Times change and so must the party. Lord Hailsham said it best.
"Given the Court Ruling that the Labour Manifesto was not one to be relied upon, how will that affect us?"
Not at all. Manifestos have never been binding documents, and rightly so.
Posted by: David | March 14, 2009 at 17:53
Tim, I'm very surprised at that information in view of the very critical contributions that I've been reading in the last two days.
Thank you for putting me right. All I want to see is a Conservative general election victory because I beleive that Brown is RUINING this country!
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 17:58
Team Cameron have been tactically astute in ending the party's cold war with the BBC and realising its centrality in informing the British people about politics.
I doubt the BBC has much influence outside The Home Counties. It is certainly distrusted and has nothing of interest to say. It is a tabloid service with low audience outside London where it is a local broadcaster.
The BBC is a propaganda unit - a State Broadcasting Monolith that should at the very least be renamed UKBC and at best regionalised and have the licence fee abolished.
What this quotation shows is the old-fashioned politics stil;l being peddled from London in a world where political structures are now fluid.
Posted by: TomTom | March 14, 2009 at 18:16
If you don't like BBC ouput - complain. They've got a call centre that is open 24 hours a day. If that doesn't appeal go BBC Complaints on the web. I complain REGULARLY.
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 18:29
If you don't like BBC ouput - complain.
I've tried that. Last year I took a complaint all the way up to the BBC Trust, about a matter of fact - not opinion, not bias, proven fact. They rejected the complaint anyway.
I used to believe that BBC bias was due to ignorance rather than deliberate deceitfulness. I have been forced to the opposite conclusion. They know they're biassed. They know that they're not representing views that they should be. They know, to put it bluntly, that they're telling the public things that are untrue. And they continue to do so, because they want to.
Posted by: Alex Swanson | March 14, 2009 at 18:45
Alex Swanson you are missing the point. This was a CONSERVATIVEhome survey. If it demonstrates anything compared to general surveys it demonstrates the disconection of people like yourself from reality and the need of Cameron to turn the Conservative supertanker round from the people and approach that lost three elections.
Posted by: David Sergeant | March 14, 2009 at 18:46
@Freddy
And that has availed you precisely what?
Posted by: Opinicus | March 14, 2009 at 18:56
@David Sergeant
You are missing the point. A pig in a blue rosette could win in June 2010. We do not want to repeat Blair's wasted years. We could do anything.
You support Cameron because he is all that saves you from that awful realisation.
Posted by: Opinicus | March 14, 2009 at 19:01
Just as I thought - Tory support is because of Labour's failure NOT because of approval of the Tories. Local Election results support that finding - the Lib Dems gain more than the Conservatives because at local level they are clearly credible.
The danger is that as we approach a Gerneral Election the Lib Dems will gain more national credibility. For instance Cable outshines Osbourne, Clegg is moving up on Cameron !
Life gets exciting !!!
Posted by: From Wales | March 14, 2009 at 19:06
@ David, 17.53
Since the majority of the people actually do believe an election manifesto, I have to say 'shame' on those who put themselves forward for election on a lie.
Posted by: Susan | March 14, 2009 at 19:15
" A pig in a blue rosette could win in June 2010. We do not want to repeat Blair's wasted years. We could do anything."
Dream on Opinicus, Brown could still win if he manages to sell the idea we don't need spending cuts that the Tories will do and that more government regulation is a good idea. You are thinking like a Man U supporter before 12.00 to-day.
Posted by: David Sergeant | March 14, 2009 at 19:23
@David Sergeant
I don't want to get into a slanging match, but it seems to be the only approach to debate you understand.
Let's summarise:
- All the evidence, which I've set out many times here but which you clearly don't care about, is that Cameron was making absolutely no headway until October 2007, at which point the Brown govt started imploding by itself.
- 80% of the people surveyed here agree (more or less) with me on that
- I and others here were saying well before then, never mind before last autumn, that Cameron ought to vigorously oppose irresponsible Labour eonomic policy, instead of agreeing with it. For that, people like you abused us as you are abusing me now. Cameron has now had the grace to admit we were right and apologise. You ought to as well.
Posted by: Alex Swanson | March 14, 2009 at 19:34
Brown could still win if he manages to sell the idea we don't need spending cuts that the Tories will do
Yes he could. But deceit is not the answer. Rather, the correct answer is to tell the truth as loudly and clearly as possible for as long as possible.
That's where Conservative leadership teams have gone wrong in the past. They've never had the self-confidence to simply tell the truth, and keep telling it, even when it's unpopular. Instead they've just chased whatever they think will boost ratings in the short term. Of course, the public sees through this and reacts only with contempt, and rightly so.
Posted by: Alex Swanson | March 14, 2009 at 19:39
If the economy starts to pick up then Brown could still win because the Conservatives are so weak. They are basically a one bad man with no instruments. They need a better team and some policies that actually catch peoples attention.
They should also I think take the moral high ground. Stop personal attacks and start to suggest to people that they represent a real change with how things have been done. Promise no more spin, more honesty and an end to MP`s dodgy dealings.
If the party wants to learn anything from Obama its the fact that he appealed to the better side of people. The compassionant side, the progressive side, the side that wants to see a kinder, more gentle country. That is the avenue the party should go down not the selfish, racist and right wing path many on this site wrongly believe will lead the party back to power.
Posted by: Jack Stone | March 14, 2009 at 19:45
@Alex Swanson @Opinicus
You are of course right about the BBC, but complaining lowers my blood pressure!
HOWEVER, If enough people complain about an issue the BBC DO take notice.
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 20:00
Don't bet on it Freddy @ 20.00. The BBC receives grants and loans from the EU so it's in their interests to promote the 'EU Agenda'. They're very happy with the status quo, even if the electorate are not.
Posted by: Susan | March 14, 2009 at 20:07
@Alex Swanson
Simply telling the truth and keep telling it breaches the first rule of political campaigning - never present your opponent with a large stationary target!
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 20:08
@Susan
I think you are right, but what other solution is there?
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 20:11
Sorry, Alex Swanson I have to keep "slanging" by disagreeing with you. I am not in a position to look up your own contributions but I am sure that all you have been doing is demand Cameron cuts government spending, without, of course, suggesting what could be cut.
I don't know where you get the idea deceit is not the answer. Labour of won three election basically on deceit and for most of the time in between, with such success Brown will try it again. Remember voters only see politicians through the filter of the media and most of that would gleefully like to print the large number of nurses Labour, trade unions and NHS "managers" say will be made redundant.
I will half agree with you though, one reason we have done so bad in the past is the almost unbelievable lack of self confidence of party leaders (they are still not properly getting it). If they had really taken on Labour lies and plugged the successes of the 18 years, among other things, selling government spending cuts now would be a lot easier.
Posted by: David Sergeant | March 14, 2009 at 20:21
No surprises there. Most people would only vote Tory for negative reasons, to get Labour out. I don't see that changing given the current shambles, apologies etc. Speaking of which, how about an apology for not opposing this law that says we have to register for foreign travel and have it all recorded in another ghastly database. Or was it yet another example intentional collusion with New Labour?
Every day there is another open goal presented to the Tories and they constantly ignore them. The only possible conclusion is that they agree with all this draconian legislation whether it be to curb civil liberties, spying etc. etc. we never hear so much as a whimper of dissent.
Posted by: Kevin | March 14, 2009 at 20:28
I don't know Freddy, really I don't. Stop paying the licence fee?
Posted by: Susan | March 14, 2009 at 20:39
@ David Sergeant - 19:23 - As a life-long MANU supporter (and someone who comes from N Cheshire) I cannot agree with you, we hoped, we despaired.
@ Jack Stone
As a regular contributor here I find your views very offensive. Quite why you (apparently) equate a logical view that we have too much immigration into this country with an accusation of racism is a mystery to me.
A country where people take personal responsibility for their actions should be a kinder country and, in the context of the last 11 years of repression, a progressive country.
People who believe in lower taxation, less spending by the state are not right wing what they are is believers in sound economics.
Posted by: John Broughton | March 14, 2009 at 20:45
Unfortunate juxtaposition of 'Cameron' and 'Failure' in that image. Couldn't you wangle it so Cameron is raised up near 'Longevity' and the 'Failure' stays down near 'Brown'...far more accurate!
Re "Pig in a blue rosette would win"...this is exactly the attitude that needs to be avoided. Act like it's a done deal and we'll fail...remember "somebody" out there is still polling 30% for Labour CONSISTENTLY.
Posted by: Span Ows | March 14, 2009 at 20:56
True Toryism was seen in the House of Lords last Thursday when Conservatives stopped a Lib Dem bill which would have ensured that all member of the Lords actually paid taxes in the UK. Read Hansard and follow the disgraceful Tory filibuster. Tory Democracy is a myth and the electors will come to realise it. ....to refuse to back a Bill which would have ended the completely undemocratic "representation without taxation"
Posted by: Anon R | March 14, 2009 at 21:26
@Tim
Could we have a Conservativehome poll on balance and the BBC?
Posted by: Freddy | March 14, 2009 at 21:34
It's a known fact Political parties do not win elections, they only lose them.
Posted by: Patrick Harris | March 14, 2009 at 21:39
Sure Freddy. Please remind me if I don't do it soon.
Posted by: Tim Montgomerie | March 14, 2009 at 21:39
Step 1) Get out of the EU. This will save untold billions.
Step 2) Halt the incredible escalating cost of state pensions by making all future state/Local Govt. pensions paid for by employees.
Step 3) Make all major local employees (police chiefs etc) elected.
Step 4) Make ALL elected officials payments a statutory wage. No expenses whatever. If a flight or other transport is needed then this is to be sourced at commercial rates and paid for by central Govt. All these payments to be made public.
Step 5) Flat tax starting at £10k
Step 6)Workfare. No more lifetime benefits for those who do not contribute.
Step 7) Get our troops out of idiotic foreign wars. Our military is and should be for our defence. Not to interfere in other countries politics.
If Mr. Cameron had the courage to state and pursue these policies then he would win the election not have to rely on Mr. Brown losing it.
Posted by: Ray Finch | March 14, 2009 at 22:36
Trying to woo the BBC is a waste of time. They are incapable of understanding anything outside their narrow, restricted view of the world. They are London-based, patronising people that believe their role is to control public opinion, not listen to it.
One of the most important tasks for a new Conservative Government is to reform the BBC so that a full range of voices/opinions can be reported.
Posted by: m wood | March 15, 2009 at 00:38
Whilst the BBC report some news very comprehensively and well, they are clearly very bias in political areas (here and overseas). More people now appreciate this and given the rise in availability of extra TV channels, their influence will wain in the coming years as choice widens. The reality of this struck me before Christmas when speaking to an elderly gent who I know to be every bit a Labour supporter - he was outraged that the government had such an easy time from the press in general but in particular the BBC! He had recently gained access to additional channels and started to see other news from the likes of CNN, Sky etc. As mentioned elsewhere, the BBC do rely on the government of the day and the EU for their budget - so isn't an 'institutional bias' inevitable?
Posted by: Rob C | March 15, 2009 at 08:42
Governments lose elections; oppositions don't win them. 'Twas ever thus. The job of an opposition is to be there, uncontaminated, fresh, interesting, relatively uncontroversial...but above all, nice...ergo Blair and Cameron.
Posted by: Domesday | March 15, 2009 at 08:43
Span Ows:
"Re "Pig in a blue rosette would win"...this is exactly the attitude that needs to be avoided."
An awful lot of people here - the sort who bang on about 'always voted Tory since I were a lad' etc - would vote for a pig, so long as it wore a blue rosette. They see no contradiction in this, apparently, no reflection on the value/point of democracy...
Domesday:
" The job of an opposition is to be there, uncontaminated, fresh, interesting, relatively uncontroversial...but above all, nice...ergo Blair and Cameron."
A trifle cynical but accurate, I'd say. In the present case, I'd quibble with 'fresh' and 'interesting' though. And there's certainly little evidence of any Tory concern to reverse the relentless onward march of the police state, witness the latest travel-logging plans by the Border Control Gestapo (who are it seems more concerned with tracking our escape plans than with stemming the flood of immigrants) with so far little or no response from HP Opposition.
Posted by: Malcolm Stevas | March 15, 2009 at 09:32
That should of course read "HM Opposition", nothing to do with sauce or hire purchase - though come to think of it...
Posted by: Malcolm Stevas | March 15, 2009 at 09:35
Malcolm Stevas, I'm disappointed - you normally talk about badgers in blue jackets!!
That said, I actually agree with you on this point. People, we could be on the threshold of Government - please, please, please don't mess it up by swaggering around complacently and talking about pigs, badgers, monkeys or anything else in a blue rosette! Votes are never in the bag until 10 pm on Polling Day.
Posted by: Sally Roberts | March 15, 2009 at 09:46
Stop being so damned sensitive Alex Swanson. Nobody abused you they just thought you were wrong.I still think your claim that Cameron made no progress prior to October 2007 (completely )wrong.
I do not see how the fact that this poll regards Labour failure as the primary reason for our poll success changes that one iota.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | March 15, 2009 at 11:54
My problem with the Conservative party is that it supports the status quo.
If Anon R is right and they helped defeat the LD bill to get the lords to pay taxes, then they could very easily turn into the next problem government, when this incompetent bunch of crooks is got rid of.
Posted by: Colin | March 15, 2009 at 20:02
If Colin will read last Thursday's Hansard and check the division list he will realise that the Conservatives are already the "problem" !
Posted by: Anon R | March 16, 2009 at 12:58