YouGov: Tories 10% ahead

More in The Telegraph.

Comments

[Joseph S.]

hmmm another increase in support for others it would seem, I expect the BNP and UKIP are the major benefactors.

Currently a single or possibly even two British National MEPs and only a marginal decrease in UKIP MEPs would be my prediction but things change very quickly.

Glad to see a double digit lead so that Head Office should be fairly happy untill David feels ready to return.

[Victor, NW Kent]

It may be that the BNP is now nearing 5% of the vote. If that is maintained or increased by the time of the General Election it would be very bad news indeed for Labour.
Side notes according to the Telegraph rate voter concerns with immigration as the most important followed by a desire to reduce the power of the EU. I consider that very doubtful indeed as it is hardly credible that the economy is not at the top of people's concerns. The Telegraph's interpretation would indicate huge swings to the BNP and UKIP on these issues alone but that is not borne out by the percentages.

[Richard]

Again worrying,

Others lets be honest means BNP/UKIP.

People should remember these are UK polls,the SNP for instance is way behind Labour,for the Scottish Parliament the SNP are ahead.

The Conservative Party can win this GE here & now,whenever it is called by saying,whatever the Lisbon treaty vote,they consider it nil & void until the British people have spoken,it really is that simple.

The BNP,are now & will be more so in the future a real threat,they are growing alarmingly.

I commented a couple of days ago about a friend who was killed by one of the approx 500k illegal immigrants in this country,the one's that can't get benefits,they commit crime,or work illegaly to live.

The person who killed my friend for his wallet,will do 10-15yrs,he will come out to be called a 'BRITISH RESIDENT'.the fact this is because he has been locked up makes it a joke.

He will come out,have no job,no skills,have no prospect of a job,due to being convicted for murder & will live the rest of his days on benefits.

We have got to have a policy for removing illegal immigrants,if nothing else it makes a mockery of coming in legal.

[Carrie]

According to the telegraph (and therefore the yougov opinion poll) IMMIGRATION and not the economy is what the people of this country want the Tories to deal with and get a grip of should they form the next government. But seen as how the leadership are frightened to death of even mentioning immigration can we be assured we'll get said majority?????

[Kevin]

The poll also said that the main concern people have at the moment is immigration. Something which none of the main three parties can do anything about given their subservient attitude to the EU.

We now have a situation in this country where the main three parties are diametrically opposed to the view of the electorate with all three being hellbent on handing over more power to the EU regardless of the views of the voter. There is a cross party conspiracy against the electorate. It seems to me that if the Conservatives had stuck to their core beliefs instead of trying to impersonate New Labour they would be a lot further ahead in the polls.

[Yet Another Anon]

The person who killed my friend for his wallet,will do 10-15yrs,he will come out to be called a 'BRITISH RESIDENT'.the fact this is because he has been locked up makes it a joke.
The solution to that sort of thing is to have automatic death sentences for a range of crimes irrespective of who committed it and have a range of forms of death with slower more painful forms for more heinous crimes, where they were from or what their mental state was when they did it, plenty of people are killed by British born people as well, to do that the UK certainly needs to leave The European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights; it would be as well to leave the EU as well to regain control of UK borders whatever the total numbers let in there is a National Security issue.

People are rather fedup with all 3 main parties - they are sick of Liberal Criminal Justice policies, sick of governments bailing out failed financial institutions, sick of big Budget Deficits and sick of spin.

[Mike]

Richard and Carrie - please try to be less hysterical. Immigration is important but is blown up in importance compared to other issues like crime, the economy, education standards etc.

We need to be a well rounded party and not just a one trick pony like UKIP (Europe) and the BNP (immigration).

[LS]

"Others lets be honest means BNP/UKIP."

Probably 3%-4% SNP. 1%-ish PC. Leaves 8-9% for other others.

[Richard]

LS,

As i have pointed out these are Westminster Elections,not for the Scottish Parliament,Labour have remained ahead all the way since 2007 on these votes.

The SNP vote would be between 2-3%,the entire voting block for Scotland is 8% of UK.

Mike,

You are entitled to your view,i would say however to you,if we actually listened to what people are saying,immigration & Europe are what they care most about.

Mike,don't you find it odd that during a recession,the likes of which havn't been seen since 1970,s at best,1930's at worst,the main concern of the people in not the economy.

If we started listening to the people that vote,rather than trying to be smart arses,telling them what we want them to care about,we might not have been in opposition for 12 years.

On current voting intentions the equivalent entire voting block of Scotland & Wales,in UK voting terms are going to vote for someone other than LAB/CON/LIB.

TIME TO LISTEN TO THE VOTERS!

[GB£.com]

I wonder how many Labour MP's watched the programme on Thatcher last night, and are considering if the only way to keep out the Hezzer/Cameron is for the leader to step down before the vote...

[Sally Roberts]

Do you know, GB£.com I was just thinking the very same thing!!
This is a totally unsurprising poll. I am afraid that "others" means the BNP (sorry UKIPPERS!..) and it is a worrying thought as far as the Euros are concerned. I do not think we will get a BNP MEP in London but Conservatives in the North West and Yorkshire should be taking note of the trend and making sure they pull out all their voters on 4th June to prevent something very unpleasant occurring!

[Tandy]

The poll also shows a comfortable lead for the Tories over Labour. The Conservatives are on 41 per cent, down two on last month, and Labour on 31, down one point on January's survey. The Liberal Democrats polled 15 per cent, down one.

How does this correspond with the above graphic. For the second time this week I don't understand Con Homes graphics....

[James]

As someone who actually takes an interest in the methodology of polling (I can thoroughly recommend both ukpollingreport.co.uk anbd politicalbetting.com for regular insightful analysis from Anthony Wells and Mike Smithson)I think it's worth pointing out that thwe immigration question entirely depends on how the question was asked.

Most of the regular, comparable polling questions about about issues have shown immigration as being no higher up the agenda as an issue for a long time, and it being considerably below the economy as a concern.

Nut as opne off poll with a one off question that is not carefully asked in a n eutral way can produce any response you want.

On his particular poll, Anthony Wells says:

"the actual question asked isn’t stated in the report, but I’d be incredibly surprised if immigration was seen as a more important issue than the economy. I suspect it was the most important issue out of a list that didn’t include sorting out the economic crisis…"

[Tim Montgomerie]

Tandy,

The graphics refer to changes from the most recent YouGov poll (which happens to be for The Sunday Times) not the most recent YouGov poll for The Telegraph.

Hope this is helpful.

[YMT]

Tim maybe it's time you wrote script to de-cap strings that have greater than two capital letters in a row.

I'm hardly surprised, there are a lot of "secret" xenophobes in the country, we all know this, how many times have you known someone to be a "little" bit racist about an ethnic group? The half joking / half not slur. Well with things getting desperate in some areas as the effect of the collapsing economy snowballs, anger is being redistributed and minorities are in the firing line again, as history has shown this always happens, an unfortunate characteristic of human nature. We have to keep on message, But I'm confident that CCHQ will do this anyway swinging to the far right will not do us any favours.
Additionally there do seem to be some people who post on this site posting as "Conservatives" who seem to be verging on a lynch the darkies mentality? And a crowing on about something with you caps key left on.. well it doesn't add utility to you argument lets just say.

They took our jobs?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2fGl9587X8&feature=related

[Steve Tierney]

I think people need to get their heads out of the sand. Having been out and about canvassing and talking to the public many times over the last couple of years, I can assure you that (in my area at least) Immigration *always* comes up first and foremost.

Even now, people moan about the economy, but its mostly fatalistic. "There's nothing to be done, but yes, its tough." Whereas their approach to Immigration is often much more direct and angry.

As for integration with the EU, I simply cannot remember the last time I met somebody in real life (outside of boards like this one) who didn't feel we should draw back from further integration. Its absolutely predictable. Ask about the EU and every single person you speak to says "They have too much power, Britain should take its power back."

Now maybe this all changes in some big "Liberal" city, but in the more rural Eastern counties there are a whole lot of people who make no secret of how they feel. And it doesn't have much bearing on what you seem to think in these comments.

If votes are moving to the BNP and to UKIP then we should not kid ourselves that they will all be Labour votes. It's true, many Labour supporters are likely to become disenfranchised (you have to wonder how they could feel otherwise) and move that way.

But plenty of traditional Tories are also sighing heavily and worrying about how they might vote in any forthcoming elections.

I agree with the poster who said this "could easily be fixed". A simple: "There Will Definitely Be A Referendum, Come What may" would go a LONG way to easing people's minds.

It's democratic, it lets the people decide their own nation's future, and its what we've always promised anyway. What's not to like?

[Sally Roberts]

"Additionally there do seem to be some people who post on this site posting as "Conservatives" who seem to be verging on a lynch the darkies mentality?"

Yes I agree with you YMT. This is something which has been worrying me over the last few weeks on here.

[Felixstowe Fiddler]

BNP are encroaching on unskilled Labour voters (usually referred to as white trash), anti immigrant Tories, and UKIP. If BNP does well enough to manage to get MEPs elected, they'll be an almighty blame game stink which will ignore the fact that they were democratically elected.
When DC returns to work, he must address the:
1) The failure of the party's soft approach to Europe
2) The party's nervousness in tackling immigration
3) The party's continuing unpopularity in Scotland
4) The ludicrous d'Hondt system of PR which allows UKIP and BNP to be elected
5) Timidity over the bonus culture

[oldrightie]

Rubbish poll again. Got the wife's Euro earnings to bank. (research it if you don't understand the reference). Perhaps these polls are as well managed as The Banks and the economy.

[steve foley]

"Tim maybe it's time you wrote script to de-cap strings that have greater than two capital letters in a row."

YMT you want CENSORSHIP on this website then?

Immigration IS an issue as are Law and Order, Education, and of course at the current time the Economy and Unemployment. Whilst Immigration should not be blown up out of proportion it cannot be swept under the carpet.

Conservative Leaders cannot treat this as the Elephant in the Sitting Room but should have well reasoned and fair responses to this issue. Doing nothing is not an option and will only lead voters to back the BNP who do offer a policy on this issue.

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Polls are an indicator of the mood. But other factors will play a part as well.

Regional factors such as growth of Celtic Nationalists share of the vote, plus BNP & UKIP. I think this will hit Labour much harder than the Conservatives.

And we are doing better than this in the key marginals.

The lack of coverage given to HM Opposition by the BBC is nothing short of a national disgrace. Once the election campaign starts, their ability to ignore David Cameron and his team will be restriced.

Finally, it will be more and more bad news on the economy for at least the next 18 months.

If I were a gambling man, I'd be happy to place my bet now.

[Mara MacSeoinin]

Are people not equally if not more aggrieved about the fact that our national character and history have been totally eroded in order to make immigrants feel comfortable, rather than demanding some level of acceptance of our culture as a mandatory precursor for entry? A lot of people have switched over to the BNP hecause they're fed up with being made to feel that it's a crime to be British and that 'equality' is enforced for absolutely everyone but them.

[David Belchamber]

As this thread seems to be turning into a discussion about immigration, might I copy my post of this morning under AOB?

"Fifty-two per cent said they wanted a Tory administration to reduce immigration".

If the Telegraph article is correct in suggesting that immigration is once again a major issue, then might I suggest, as I have done in the past, that the topic be defused by asking any hostile questioner about tory policy:

"what aspect of immigration do you want to discuss? Asylum seekers, economic migrants or illegal immigrants?"

A hostile interviewer will deliberately conflate the three categories together.

Posted by: David Belchamber | 27 February 2009 at 10:02"

[John Moss]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php

Mike Smithson has the full tables and the Telegraph are clearly being disingenuous with their claims about "immigration being people's top priority".

It may top the list of things which people were offered, but that does not mean it is people's no1 priority!

[RichardJ]

"YMT you want CENSORSHIP on this website then?"

No, justy an end to people who write like a Sun editorial and seem to think using capitals to give emphasis is big and clever.

[Alex G Briggs]

Immigration certainly needs stronger control.The main reason being we have problems to care and house the population within the UK Today.Simple logistics the UK is full and can /should not take anymore in at this time.

Brown and the Bankers.
If Fred shred should do the honourable thing and give back his financial rewards because of his failure in his job.Why does Gordon Brown not come into this category also.He was the man with his hand on the accounts so he should also do the honourable thing for all of us and the Country.Now not in a years time.

[Richard]

Immigration has been the top concern in polls long before the credit cruch,10 months straight after Brown took over as PM for example.

As Conservatives we should be very concerned,it is not just labour areas.

I come from Staffordshire,i come from a small place,that stayed Tory during 1997,i assure you it is becoming fashionable to say you support the BNP,people are not scared to say it.

Where i live it is over 99% British White,we have hardly no immigrants,we have a small number of Hindu & Sikh Indians,and let me say like the rest of the UK,they are now & always have been as good as gold.

The BNP are filling a a void,at least the Labour Party and Lid Dems have the courage of their convictions,they have no upward limit on immigration as policy,they also want the Lisbon Treaty ratified.

The Conservatives are ideologically opposed to both large scale immigration & the Lisbon Treaty,so why do we not have policies on our convictions,because we don't wnat to upset Europe,we can upset our own people but not Europe,what is going on?

Labour used to scoff at the SNP,a party i would like to remind people used to have violence as a means of achieving their aim,nobody's laughing now.

It is not the Ethnic city's that have huge BNP growth it is the White British places that see whats going on in other parts,when someone from where i live steps out of our comfort zone,and goes to london and loses their life,people in a city of 60 thousand takes notice,yound & old,BNP posters are in our pubs,a true blue Tory area,since God was a boy,we take notice or we will regret it.

[Susan Wade Weeks]

William Hague said last night in Tadcaster, N Yorkshire that when asked what he wanted by the permanent secretaries recently he replied that if a Conservative Government was elected on a Thursday, he would require the mechanisms for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty to be in place by Saturday morning.

We need to communicate this to the electorate.

[Mara MacSeoinin]

For the first time ever I went over to the BNP website to have a browse of their policies. Now, I'd never, ever, ever vote BNP: I'm Jewish *and* a libertarian, so I'd be one of the first into the crematorium; but what they're saying about proper policing without all the PC (excuse the pun) nonsense, eviction of illegal and criminal immigrants, opposition to the euro and EU rule, slashing bureaucracy in the NHS and revitalisation of agriculture and fishery is compelling stuff. More than that, it's *strong*. It's written in a clear, no-nonsense way that is far more likely to get votes because it gets the point across. The Conservatives need to be much more hardline rather than unconsciously regurgitating a socialist ethos and pussyfooting around hard subjects.

[Frankland Macdonald Wood]

In these comments considerable doubt has been cast on the Telegraph figures showing that Immigration is the prime issue, even over Economic problems. I have no doubt at all that they are right. It squares with what my friends in England report to me and with my own 'gut feeling'. The economic situation is lagely a 'known', but not an easy subject to project pithy policies or responses to. Yes, we are all very worried about it, certainly we retired expats, partially or permanently on the Continent (but still with hundreds of thousands of votes to cast in Blighty!)and transferring money from the UK at worse than 100p to the euro. Sooner or later, one way or another, we can work our way out of this mess, given another Blessed Margaret and proper Tory policy. What is staring us in the face with Immigration is the destruction of a nation and a style of civilisation we knew and loved. I for one have no desire at all to live in a multi-cultural society and I do not relish difference and diversity: I abhor it and I have every right to say so in 'my' own country. And yes, I do see it as 'my country' because not only was I born there but so were all my forebears on both sides for more generations than I can trace. Does that make a difference? Should that make a difference? Yes, undoubtedly it should. It is our 'capital' is the country; our labour over generations to clear the land and build the towns; to have defended it in war; to have served it and paid taxes in peace; generation in and generation out. This is a matter of blood and land and of those elemental matters that are at the core of our psyche and our being. Of course it matters more than economics or education or the NHS. It is fundamental to everything. The failure to understand all this is why NuLabour is reviled and why the Conservatives are not 25 points ahead. They do not represent the Real English and the spirit of Wellington, Nelson, Elgar, Faraday, Constable, Churchill and thousands of similar Englishmen. It is a proud heritage and a blighted uncertain kharki-coloured future; and it will colour our voting intentions.

[David Belchamber]

"...what they're saying about proper policing without all the PC (excuse the pun) nonsense, eviction of illegal and criminal immigrants, opposition to the euro and EU rule, slashing bureaucracy in the NHS and revitalisation of agriculture and fishery is compelling stuff. More than that, it's *strong*. It's written in a clear, no-nonsense way that is far more likely to get votes because it gets the point across".

Well said, Mara at 15.23. Firm but fair policies are needed - and above all clearly expressed.

I have already exhorted David Cameron: "Be honest. Be bold. Be conservative".

[Gloy Plopwell]

Fabulous stupendous news. Well done Lib Dems!!! 15% is miles above the 11 in 2007 when sadly had to decopitate poor Ming.
This really fills with enthoosiasm, on course to overtake Labour soon, and then the Tories at the end of the year.
Watch out for a lib Dem cabinot next year.
Vince has done so well on the economy he can be agriculture secretary, with Sarah Teather as chancellor.
Suspendors momentum.!

[Super Blue]

"Additionally there do seem to be some people who post on this site posting as "Conservatives" who seem to be verging on a lynch the darkies mentality?"

I can't think Hugh you mean, YMT ;)

[[email protected]]

"For the first time ever I went over to the BNP website to have a browse of their policies. Now, I'd never, ever, ever vote BNP: I'm Jewish *and* a libertarian, so I'd be one of the first into the crematorium"

Of course there is nothing on their site that would confirm your fears.Either they are playing it safe, or their leadership isn't quite as insane as we paint them.
Their political correctness may hide a more sinister agenda. Isn't this one of the big dangers of the PC mentality, it stops people being open about their views. As a result many people who would never vote for a Nazi party, will; happily vote BNP because they only see what they are presented with. We have been ruthless in our attacks on the BNP, ensuring that those with racist views will gravitate to them. If we didn't have the restraint of political correctness, we would have a better idea of what the BNP is really up too. I fear that the European elections will be a real breakthrough into mainstream politics for the BNP. 1 or 2 MEPs doesn't sound much, but the downturn in the economy is setting the stage for them to become a real force in British politics.

[UKIP campaigner]

"4) The ludicrous d'Hondt system of PR which allows UKIP and BNP to be elected

Posted by: Felixstowe Fiddler | February 27, 2009 at 09:44"

Another Tory totalitarian who does not want every vote to count!

Nearly every Tory in the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly would be looking for a new job under first-past-the-post.

Isn't it strange that Cameron wants to change everything but the Commons voting system? IIRC, he wants PR to elect the Lords.

Go fiddle!

[UKIP campaigner]

"William Hague said last night in Tadcaster, N Yorkshire that when asked what he wanted by the permanent secretaries recently he replied that if a Conservative Government was elected on a Thursday, he would require the mechanisms for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty to be in place by Saturday morning.

We need to communicate this to the electorate.

Posted by: Susan Wade Weeks | February 27, 2009 at 15:08".

That is not Cameron's policy. The Conservatives will only offer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if it has not been ratified by the next general election. Hague's promise is dependent on another Irish "NO" vote.

The Conservatives and Libertas (who can't stand in the UK under that name) will do nothing to restore the power that successive Conservative and Labour governments have given away to Brussels already.

If you want a real Conservative government in Westminster, you can send a message to Cameron by lending your vote to UKIP in the European Elections.

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Dear UKIP campaigner

Many of us agree with much of what you stand for. However, your activity actually does the very thing you are trying to avoid.

A vote for UKIP damages the Euro-Sceptic Conservatives therefore helping the very pro-EU Labour Party.

So vote UKIP to get a United States of Europe (run by a few unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats).

[Dan Hassett]

"4) The ludicrous d'Hondt system of PR which allows UKIP and BNP to be elected

Posted by: Felixstowe Fiddler | February 27, 2009 at 09:44"

Another Tory totalitarian who does not want every vote to count!

Posted by: UKIP campaigner | February 28, 2009 at 17:42

UKIP also campaign against the electoral system used in European Elections, arguing a need for strong, single member constituencies.

[steve foley]

"UKIP also campaign against the electoral system used in European Elections, arguing a need for strong, single member constituencies."

============================================

Which ironically would cost nearly all UKIP MEPs their seats, possibly Nigel Farrage could hold on.

Replace de-Hondt with STV if PR is mandatory.

[Alex Swanson]

Yes I agree with you YMT.

YMT, Sally, feel free to quote some examples.

There seems to be a growing tensency here to throw around accusations of racism without the individuals concernde being in the slightest degree concerned about whether they're actually true or not. Of course, this has been done for a long time by the left-wing guests; now, sadly, the habit seems to being adopted by Tory party Cameroonies as well. I have no idea why you want to do this. All you will achieve is to alienate people and help destroy the Tory party from within.

[Sally Roberts]

"YMT, Sally, feel free to quote some examples."

Alex Swanson, it is a well-known trick saying "quote some examples..." and you know as well as I do that one is damned if one does and damned if one doesn't! If one quotes an example, the person pops up and protests vigorously; if one doesn't then one is simply accused of being "frit"!

Having said that, all that you need to do is to look back over Centre Right and read any of the posts by "Franie" and most of those by "Hugh Oxford".

[Malcolm Stevas]

Reformed Labour Voter:
"A vote for UKIP damages the Euro-Sceptic Conservatives therefore helping the very pro-EU Labour Party."
A vote for the Tories encourages them in their belief that they'll attract all the sort-of-Right votes despite their headlong rush to espouse mealy mouthed, bland, inoffensive, meaningless, meliorist, palliative, Social Democrat placebos, and their cowardly abandonment of so much that is fundamental. Some of us still believe in ideals, and principles.
Sally R, I'm sure H.Oxford can answer for himself but I'd be disappointed if you were to label him with that pitiful, cliched beyond redemption slur of "racist".

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Malcolm Stevas

"Some of us still believe in ideals, and principles."

Works well in Hollywood movies. But this is the real world and you are fighting Gordon Brown, a man who doesn't believe in ideals & principles - just power. That puts you at a disadvantage straight away.

At the last election, the Conservatives made the immigration policy a key focus area. Most people agreed but it allowed the Labour Party & their friends at the BBC to portray us as the Nasty Racist Tories. The 'floaters' turned away. The Tories won the argument but lost the election. Some consolation.

My conclusion? Win the election then put your trust in Messrs Cameron, Hague & Osborne. It's not Hollywood but it's the best shot we've got...

[Sally Roberts]

"Sally R, I'm sure H.Oxford can answer for himself but I'd be disappointed if you were to label him with that pitiful, cliched beyond redemption slur of "racist"."

Malcolm, I am quite sure he can. I notice you don't mention the poster known as "Franie". Any particular reason for that?
I was asked a question and I answered it.

[Summer]

I think Ms Roberts what you were asked was to show evidence of what you deem to be 'racism', so it can be judged. You see others of us might not deem it so.

Racism means to hate someone without cause, but simply because of their race. It does not mean - to object to your county and culture being taken over by people who live here determined to live by their own culture and not integrate. The later is not racism, it's a dislike of 'invasion'.

I have never seen anything in Hugh Oxford's posts I deem to show his hatred of people of another race, only his dislike of invasion. And there I will totally agree with him as will many others.

I don't know the other poster you mentioned.

[Joseph S.]

It is typical for Conservatives to be branded as racists by the left on a regular basis purely on the fact we are in favour of controlled immigration. Nobody refers to Australia as racists for doing the same thing but of course it is typical of the left to attempt to portray us negatively in a personal light because they always fail to win the political argument.

Summer is quite correct in their description of racism and dislike of invasion. Personally race means nothing in my book with regards to judging anyone, and so it should be for everyone. However, I agree totally with those who are sick by of the constant undermining of our culture by those who refuse to integrate and when told to shout "racism" and "human rights".