YouGov poll of marginals points to Conservative majority of 60 or 70

It's a Channel 4 poll and Peter Kellner offers a full analysis here.

The key finding is that Cameron is much more trusted to look after the future.  Brown's diminishing advantage refers to the current crisis.  As time passes - all other things being equal - the Tory advantage should grow.

I wonder if the new tactic employed by Brown at PMQs reflects Labour's private research: "by almost two-to-one," YouGov found "voters agree that Cameron is "talking down the economy for political reasons and risks making things worse"."  Labour activists have tried this tactic before.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[David Belchamber]

"YouGov found "voters agree that Cameron is "talking down the economy for political reasons and risks making things worse".

This is a potential danger for Cameron but it stems largely from Brown's refusal to state facts or to take any blame for our economic mess.

The housing boom and bust can be largely traced back to Brown changing to an artificially low inflation rate and creating an inefficient regulatory system.

I do think that Cameron should press Brown on facts and figures and state that once we know the true state of play, we might then be able to sound more positive. It has to be said, though, that our situation is pretty dire and it will need bold leadership to get us out of it.

[michael m]

Harold Wilson used that jibe in the 60s and look where it got him

Unfortunately the British people have to wait 15 long and weary months for the chance to boot this lot out( as they will) For us the voter 15 months will seem like a life time, for Brown it will be a lifeline.

[Mark Fulford]

Hilarious! First it was a global recession. Now it’s the opposition’s. At no time will it be anything to do with Gordon.

[The Bishop Swine]

Labour's private research: "by almost two-to-one," YouGov found "voters agree that Cameron is "talking down the economy for political reasons and risks making things worse"

Private research means they ask three loyal supporters. So this indicates to me that 1 in 3 labour supporters don't agree that D.C. Is talking down the economy.

[Opinicus]

If that is confirmed in Labour's private polling expect a "crisis" election within a couple of months.
Immediately after the budget.
Why wait if you're not trusted long term but are trusted now?

[Jack Stone]

All Brown needs to do is keep his nerve and wait. The longer he delays the election the more likely it is that the economy will start to look better and then if it does he will look like a safe pair of hands .
If people think the election is in the bag they are making the same mistake Labour made in 1992.

[Richard Calhoun]

After watching prime ministers question time, on Sky I think,listening to Cameron again trying to force Gordon Brown to admit that he was wrong to say there is no boom and bust was tedious, boring and counterproductive.

Brown's tactic of saying at the end of answering each question ' the conservatives policy is to do nothing' was much more effective, and I suspect took root in people's minds.

So Mr Cameron please learn from this, your approach was hectoring and boring and I have to say it did come across as 'student politics'

[another richard]

Jack Stone

You are totally underestimating how bad the economy is.

This recession is likely to be twice as deep and long as that of the early 90s.

The longer Labour delays the worse it will get.

[Richard Calhoun]

' Jack Stone

You are totally underestimating how bad the economy is.
Posted by: another richard | February 04, 2009 at 18:23

How right you are, this economic holocaust is a defining moment for the West, it will continue for many years as we increase our debt and the East continue to have huge surpluses.

[A Bishop Swine]

Jack Stone

You are totally underestimating how bad the economy is.

This recession is likely to be twice as deep and long as that of the early 90s.

The longer Labour delays the worse it will get.

It's is going to hurt as much as 81 or worse I would suggest. However lets think a little before we totally condemn ourselves.
The systemic problem is that money is no longer tied to gold, as a result it can fail if we over do the top with radical amounts of extra bills, but that is about it. We should prepare a contingency plan, but of course Brown has sold the gold and bought Euro bills. It’s a well constructed pit they have dug. We took our eyes off the ball, Labour has hoodwinked us and Rome (as in Europe) is the likely winner. There are ways around a simple lack of gold and silver; we should not be so terrified of the paper tiger. I would imagine that reorganising our Currency would be a good way of bolstering an ailing economy. However I for one do not want the euro, which leaves us with the only real alternative. We need to harden our currency. I don’t think reintroducing stealing would be a bad move at all. We account 20 old pounds equal one hard pound. Its not a difficult thing for a unified Nation to do, but if we are only going to sit around and argue, we are going to inherit the Depression.. Of course we know that Labour is going to destroy our currency in favour of the Euro, but there is still a little time left in which to change course.

[A Bishop Swine]

I knew the game was crooked when Ruth Kelly cried off. Ruth was one of the key Christian thinkers around Blair and of course a Catholic for her sins. Blair then reappears kissing the popes ring. This is extremely vexing behaviour in an ex PM of the UK. I will not say to much because that might open up all sorts of nasty possibilities in my own life. It could well be that a Constitutional sense Labour have breeched the rules. A history of Blair’s administration has not yet been written although a sanitised version has been pushed at the Nation. “When ministers drop dead” would be a interesting read, and “The civil servant who bled to death” will be a gripping read for future commuters. We really should audit a few of their people when we get the chance. The really horrific thing is that Blair conspired with Bush against the interest of the UK. Yoh Blair!.

[Super Blue]

"The longer he delays the election the more likely it is that the economy will look better" - allegedly by Stone but without the usual shoddy grammar.

Britain's economy is going downhill rapidly and cannot recover by June 2010. I suggest that someone buys you a copy of "Economics for Dummies"!

[Patsy Sergeant]

Super Blue @ 21.37 - No wonder Stale Jock called you SuperBore!, because he didn't like the fact that you are right!

[TomTom]

All Brown needs to do is keep his nerve and wait. The longer he delays the election the more likely it is that the economy will start to look better

So your forecast is Business As Usual by June 2010.....interesting...why don't you make a killing by leveraging up to buy shares in retail or banking or housebuilders ? With your insight you could become a very rich man and give your profits to the poor

Gordon Brown has to wait.....as Callaghan had to wait.....for execution day

[James Maskell]

Gordon Brown cant call it now because itll only highlight the current crisis and his responsibility for it. If he was going to call an election it would have been done by now. He will not call it until the last minute. He doesnt want to cause more frustration by boosting hopes of an early election then having to backtrack. He wont make that mistake again.

Hes praying that the public will do what they did for Major in 1992.

[Super Blue]

Patsy,

"Stale Jock": that's a good one!

Recovery surely will not arrive before the General Election. We are bound to have one, aren't we - they do in Iraq nowadays!

[Jack Stone]

You don`t need full recovery by May 2010. All you need is some signs that people are starting to regain confidence and then that will benefit Brown.
You may hope that the election is a done deal but it is not.
There are several ways Labour can still win. One way is play the experience card. Another is play the cuts card. There is still plenty to play for and Labour still have many cards they can play.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Clearly, their "experience" has taught Labour nothing! Nobody with any sense will "regain confidence", whilst this Government is in power.

It is quite telling that you seem to regard the state of our country, as little more than a game of cards!

[Super Blue]

Stone,

You don't know the first thing about economics - you don't recognise the depression the British economy is now in, unique in it's depth, but your party leader admitted it yesterday.

[Votedave]

Not even a booming economy would necessarily mean electoral victory for Labour next time. Remember what happened to us in 1997 and the Democrats in 2000.

[another richard]

If anyone doubts how bad the economy is then take a look at the December industrial output figures.

Qtr4 2008 had the biggest drop in output since Qtr1 1974 when the three day week occurred against a backdrop of a miners strike and oil shortage.

Things have continued to get worse since the start of the year and forward looking indicators predict decline to continue at an increasing rate.

Industry is declining faster than it did in 1980/1.

Qtr4 GDP will also have to be adjusted from a 1.5% drop to a 1.6% drop.

We're not looking at a recession but the first stages of a depression.