Polls predict Tory majority of 70+ (but can't agree on strength of LibDems)

A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times - like ComRes' survey for The Independent on Sunday - both point to a Tory majority of over 70 but they have very different numbers for Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

YouGov show a 18% Labour-over-LibDem lead (32% to 14%) but ComRes find only a 3% lead (25% to 22%).

Comments

[Silent Hunter]

OFF TOPIC COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

PLEASE USE THE COMMENTS THREAD ON THE HOMEPAGE FOR GENERAL COMMENTS.

[Old Hack]

The real question vexing Lib Dems, particularly those with narrow leads over the Tories, is will they hold their own against a resurgent Conservative Party?

My view is that whilst some will cling on, the Lib Dems will lose seats if there is a swing to us. Why?

Any Lib Dem who thinks differently needs to look at Liberal results in the elections when the Conservatives returned to power. They were not immune to the national swing.

The Lib Dems remain an anti-Tory party. They live and die by that sword,

The Lib Dems have become more ubiquitous, less distinct both in terns of policy and personality. They still have leadership and identity problems.

Whilst it does not attract much attention there are strains over policy. Particularly when policy is set for expediency rather than principle.

Lib Dems hope that in an election when they gain an unfair advantage in terms of media publicity that their poll numbers will rise. But why? Nick Clegg will still be Nick Clegg and frankly they don't much of a distinctive message to push.

If it was a just world every Lib Dem who gained a Conservative seat in the era of our decline should lose it as we ascend. That may not be so, but we should by no means consider any Lib Dem held seat that we once held as ungainable.

[Victor, NW Kent]

We should not forget that YouGov was the only pollster to call the London mayoral election correctly.

Cameron now needs to focus on a very important matter of public perception. Those voters who are politically interested are heartily sick of the sleaze that pervades politics and the financial world. Will the Tories do something really serious about this? By that I mean rooting out every type of corruption wherever it may be including within the party itself. It is that corruption by association that has pushed the banks down the long slide.

Today we learn that Brown sold a flat to Lord Moodie who let a room there to Darling who claimed the usual large allowance for his Scottish "second home" - the room being his first. Of course Moodie claimed on the falt as his second home! So Jacqui Smith is not a lone culprit. Meanwhile Moodie got £40,000 a year from Americium, a Scottish based firm, two of whose directors were arrested last month.

I doubt that the Tories or LibDems have clean hands in such matters but somebody has to clean it all up.

A few hundred people run the country and it is not the Commons or the Lords but a great pan-European clique of cheats, posturers, tax avoiders, mountebanks and politicos seasoned with failed American bankers and economists and the odd Indian or Russian billionaire.

In plain, our alleged democracy is a sham as whoever we elect the result is the same. We don't wish to replace a Scottish Mafia with a London gang. I am a natural Conservative voter but if a future Cameron government does not vigorously disassociate itself from the villains it will deserve to sink without trace and that the Conservatives join Labour in obscurity.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I'd agree with all your points, with the exception of 6. The trouble is, the party aren't bold enough in adopting many of the measures you talk about, particulrly those relating to MPs' perks.

I was very disappointed we didn't savage Jacqui Smith over her trousering of £25,000 for living in a room in her sister's house. The only possible explanation for this is that our MPs are doing exactly the same and want to continue the rules so they can continue to steal froom the taxpayer.

I'm sure there are many greedy MPs in our party, but when leeches like the Wintertons become experts in bending the system to the limit in order to get as much money as they can, it makes it harder for Cameron to take a stand without having the finger pointed back at his own benches.

[grassroot]

Very heartfelt, Silent Hunter, though I might have phrased it differently :).

I agree with most of what you say, indeed I posted something much shorter elsewhere on virtually the same subject.
One disagreement is on PR, this is not the solution, unless you want a mess like Israel where a small party holds the balance of power. The solution is to get more popular interest in the political process. Open primaries every time, with every MP having the possibility of others in his own Party standing against him in the preliminaries, if others are inclined to do so. This would soon sort out the bed-blockers.

On your other points, I say hear, hear.

[David Belchamber]

"YouGov show a 18% Labour-over-LibDem lead (32% to 14%) but ComRes find only a 3% lead (25% to 22%)".

A colossal disparity between the polls. No poll seems to get an accurate handle on the Lib Dems. I was hoping from the ComRes one that they were about to overtake Labour and that Brown's 25% was correct.

I have not the slightest doubt that when the time comes for the conservatives to put out a manifesto, there will be a big upsurge in our support because our policies will actually benefit the country.

However, I still stand by my assertion that we will only succeed in government if we have all our best talents in the economic team - which we clearly do not have at the moment.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I agree with 'grassroot' @ 9.38, and indeed Cleethorpes Rock @ 09.31.

Victor,NW Kent I would agree with your comment completely, but it prompts two questions or problems, I think.

One is a cynical one - when you consider the general level of 'honesty' in public/media life these days, how on earth can we ensure that politicians don't manipulate facts in order to get more money, when a large proportion of people, these days seem to regard getting money for nothing, as a way of life - why even the relatives of the children involved in having a baby - supposedly - at 13yrs old, are coming out of the woodwork saying they will make money out of it! Jaqki Smith is only marginally different!

The other problem, which is equally serious and also unavoidable, is - precisely which area of this fractured economy, constitution AND society is Mr. Cameron supposed to give the highest priority to when he first gets into office. Because this load of school-kids has caused so much mayhem over the last 11yrs, that to rectify EITHER the economy OR the constitution OR society, would be a monumental full-time occupation in itself! Which first???

[Fredrik Ingemarsson]

Gordon must go !

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Excellent news! The predicted Conservative majority, continues to increase. There is simply no point, in voting for any of the other political parties. Indeed, has there ever been?

I do have a few reservations, regarding David Cameron's enthusiasm for so-called "green" issues. Like me, many potential voters are not happy with the official Tory line on the EU. Surely, a commitment to leave the EU would reassure many?

I won't digress any further, by emphasising other areas in which Conservative policies could be strengthened.

[Cllr Gavin Ayling]

I would have suggested that some of the discrepancy in the LibDem results is down to Chris Huhne's unbelievable response to the Geert Wilders story. But if that were the case, the Conservatives should have been hurt by it too.

[TomTom]

Today we learn that Brown sold a flat to Lord Moodie

was this the one that Brown acquired from Robert Maxwell through Helen Liddle q.v. ?

[Ross Warren]

"There is simply no point, in voting for any of the other political parties. Indeed, has there ever been?"

I hope there will always be room in the political life of Britain, for those with views other than the right ones to express themselves.

"The predicted Conservative majority, continues to increase."

Well indeed this appears to be good news.I would warn about complacency but lets bask in the glow of these figures just a little longer.

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

The polls seem very volatile/unreliable.

My feeling is that at long last the media and electorate are waking up to Mr G Brown and the mess he has got us in. And let me say hurrah for that.

As for the Lib Dems, the reason the polls struggle with them is not so much their wacky ideas or weak leadership but more with their tactical voting strategy.

That is, in seats where they are competing with the Tories they are the pro-lefty party and when competing with Labour they are anti-Labour more sensible/right wing flavoured.

Hence they are a muddled lot. Incapable of breaking through to one of the main parties because - how can you keep such a broad church together?

Another point is why bother?

[The Wilted Rose]

I had a look at YouGov's detailed data.

What caught my attention was the social class figures -

ABC1 C 48: L 28: LD 15

C2DE C 38: L 38: LD 14.

Given recent opinion poll results from other companies showing the Tories ahead with the C2s (and at least level-pegging, or ahead, with the DEs), I just don't believe YouGov's figures for this social class.

Could the online polling methodology somehow be missing lower-wage (or unemployed) working class people who have switched from Labour to the Tories or Lib Dems?

[A Reformed Labour Voter]

Breaking News Ipsos Mori Poll:

Conservatives are up four points on 48%, Labour are down two on 28% and the Lib Dems are unchanged on 17%.

If only the election was this May/June...