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We all know that Ipsos-Mori give seemingly bonkers poll-ratings from time to time, so probably best to put this to the back of the mind for time being.

Gap between Liberal Democrats and NuLab now less than 10%

One has to ask what 28% of the electorate think is positively appealing about Labour nowadays.

How they can find 28% to still support Gordon Brown is beyond me.

On a previous post I said that we ought to be tickling 50%. Now we are, which is nice.

No swing to the Lib Dems in this one I see.

The arithmetic needs checking, I think, Gareth:
"Gap between Liberal Democrats and NuLab now less than 10%".

If Gordon Brown had any integrity, he would, in the best interests of the nation, call an early general election.

His government is exhausted and totally discredited.

Who would provide the opposition for three terms? Especially given the A-list system breeds career-politicians, it surely will not come from within government as in previous Conservative administrations.

Where would such a crushing defeat place Labour ideologically? The centre ground is under Conservative lease for the foreseeable future. Do Labour mirror Conservative policy and hope for public boredom and impatience leading to a changing of the guard? Or will a new generation of thinkers be let off the leash to provide a radical alternative, which in difficult economic times might just be salable, at least as a one-off?

Interesting times ahead.

Broon and McLabour OUT!!!!!!!!!!

Surely if the Tories are going to win by such a landslide, those who want Labour out at all costs can vote UKIP, or Liberal Democrat (depending on which way they lean, obviously) without fear that it will allow Brown to sneak in.

Those of us who do not inhabit marginal seats, especially, can vote with their conscience knowing that a solid bedrock of people (of the kind who don't browse here or on any other blog or think about politics much) will get the Labour skunks out.

I myself am registered as a voter in Stoke-on-Trent North, a safe seat if ever there was one, so I will be voting LD to demonstrate to Cameron that there is opposition to him & he won't get an easy ride however wide his margin of victory is.

Oh this has put a huge smile on my face. One poll, not an election win, I know I know...

But still smiling :-)

Chris C.


Its good to be back in this territory again, and shows that things have returned to the status quo. This however, does not mean complacence. There are still alot of tricks that Lab could have up their sleeves - and we're not perfect.

This is just the time to be pulling up our sleeves, and revealing successful and appealing policies that will far outshine Labours, and make ourselves a credible and heavyweight government.

SKY News reports...but, naturally, not a peep from the BBC...

No election this year then. Brown will proberbly go for all or nothing in 2010.

It's not over get- remember 1992?

Lets not get over excited by this poll as is is only at best a snap shot in time. However, it is abundantly clear that we are well ahead and have been for sometime now. The Brown bounce didn't amount to much did it? Now all we need is to see the Lib/Dem's push Labour into 3rd and I will be happy. Times almost up Brown, Do the Nation a favour and go now!

"Surely if the Tories are going to win by such a landslide, those who want Labour out at all costs can vote UKIP..."

I only hope, asquith, that, as the conservatives now appear to lean quite heavily towards Eurosceptism, our policies on the EU will be such at the election that it will be quite unnecessary for anyone to vote UKIP in order to register their feelings on the matter.

If Brown has any sense (which he does not), he would go in June. At least he did not anger all by waiting till the bitter end, will be able to save Labour cash because they have to fight elections in June anyway, he will at least save some MEPs , Councils and councillors (government does better when a GE is on the same day)and the way things are looking, he will save about 50 Westminster seats rather than waiting because things are not going to get better.Hey, people might even give him some credit for being honest for a change and facing the music.

every couple of months the polls show a big swing to the tories, and then the gap narrows then it widens. and everytime we hear the same thing about brown and labour being over. all it shows is the electorate have to fracking idea what they think right now.

Yes this is great news for Cameron, but i expect by april the gap will be down to 7 points again.

Labour are down to their core as all recent polls show. I wouldn't expect them to go much lower.

I hear what you are saying, Eugene, if Major had gone to the country in 1996 rather than 1997 he might have lost less heavily.

However I doubt Brown will go to the country unless he thinks he has at least a chance of winning, and in any case I don't accept that a 2010 election is already lost- it's too far ahead.

'Chicken Saturday' is about 15 months ago now and most people accept had Brown gone then the best Cameron could have hoped for was a hung parliament.

Remember we still have about that length of time left so don't count your chickens- I'm not writing mine off just yet!!

Two 'posters' wonder how 28% of voters say they will vote Labour.

Surely the answer is obvious - hopefully MOST people who contribute to this site would ALWAYS vote Conservative whatever and that includes me. Possibly not very intellectual, erudite or academic so on this basis there are a substantial proportion of voters who will always vote Labour whatever. You only have to go out canvassing to find this out and by the same rule there are also people who will never vote Conservative under any circumstances - they may not be the same people who would always vote Labour.

How they can find 28% to still support Gordon Brown is beyond me.

We found them at the week end - all in Muswell Hill in the Edwardian homes. Indignant but less arrogant than in recent times.... almost apologetic. Included Cllr Santry of Haringey child care fame. Naturally she lives miles away from her Tottenham electorate....

This is what Britain needs.
It's what they won't let you see.
People demonstrating for change and for justice.


"I will be voting LD to demonstrate to Cameron that there is opposition to him & he won't get an easy ride however wide his margin of victory is."

I'm sure he must be wetting himself with fear at your decision.

Times like this are the times to be careful. This is a blip and John is right in saying that the polls will reverse.

What is apparant is that after months with barely a mention on the Beeb and its leftist ilk, the Cameroons are getting policy messages through the Zanulab media firewall, which is reflected by more of the dont knows being prepared to prefer the Conservatives

This is helped by Zanulab coming across as a mendacious, corrupt bunch of scum without the competance to run a tap let alone a country. The fact that Culpability Brown's response to practically everything is "not me guv" digs them all deeper.

So long as we can keep to the simple messages and keep harrying Zanulab for all its snout in trough guzzelling then we have a chance of maintaining the lead.

As long as Cameron remembers that this is Brown's defeat ten times more than it is his victory.

John wrote "Yes this is great news for Cameron, but i expect by april the gap will be down to 7 points again".

I hate to break the sad news to you John but there really isn't an Easter Bunny.

Labour MP's must be worried now. After twelve years of their stewardship, the country is close to bankruptcy, the economy in meltdown and they have a very unpopular leader who still believes that he is always right and is in no way responsible for our plight.

Will the men in grey suits knock on the door?

Does any one of them have the bottle?

Or will they all sit on their hands, like turkeys waiting for Christmas?

"You only have to go out canvassing to..(discover there are).. people who will never vote Conservative under any circumstances "

Yes and I'm one of them!!

Then you look at who of the rest is mostly likely to win the seat and the answer is generally Labour.....

This factor might just scrap Brown home in 2010

Reply to Comstock at 13.52

With such a closed mind, there is little call for differing policies, debate or democracy. A tribal headcount will do a similar job.

With this type of mentality my friend, Mr Mugabe has been scraping home since 1980.

While this poll is pretty pleasing in that we are closing in on 50% and the Liberals are becalmed on 17% we cannot be complacent.

Don't forget John Major won a fourth Tory term in a recession but lost during a boom. It would suit Labor to fight a general election in June as they will be having to throw money at trying to spare their councilors from defeat not to mention their MEP's. So they may conclude that as they are strapped for cash they might as well spend a bit extra and have a general election at the same time as the European & Local Elections. By getting the Labor vote out in that way they might save some of their European delegation from being kicked out and conserve their local government base. That sounds preferable to fighting just those mid-terms now and getting hammered only to have public anger grow between now & Spring 2010 meaning two costly campaigns and two massive defeats as Labor lose what remains of their local government base , have nearly no MEP's left and suffer a 1983 style general election rout.

Gordon Brown might as well reshuffle now , make James Purnell his Chancellor and tighten up on public spending while raising the basic personal allowance , end the NI hike & VAT cut and promise less government borrowing. By trimming taxes overall, public spending and predicted national debt figures the PM would put the Tories on the spot by taking say 250,000 lower paid workers out of tax while cutting public borrowing by say £30 billion p/a by 2012-13 on the back of cutting the Client State that he invented he could claw Labor back into contention.

That would get a recovery going and if most people paid less tax thanks to a bigger basic personal allowance Labor could recover as people had more disposable income. They might be pleased if he stopped the public sector pensions junket - cracking down on MP's final salary gravy train ain't enough....

But Brown would never have the nerve to face down his union paymasters - would he ?

It would make life darn tough for the Tories fighting marginal seats if he did go with the public mood which feels overtaxed and resentful of government waste.

It looks as if a new layer of swing voters have been dislodged from Labour. Expect more layers to break off and a poll rating soon to be over 50% as the recession bites even harder.

Meanwhile, on these figures the uniform swing would give a majority of 200+ because the swingometer does not include Northern Ireland seats. The UUP/Cons expect to pick up 4 seats (including North Down which is already UUP).

Some work needs to be done on that swingometer.

An interesting poll but I'm ignoring as the last time Mori gave us 50% Brown bounced....

Nice to be this far ahead, yet annoying. If people think we are going to win convincingly, they won't vote for us. But if they think that it is close between us and Brown, they will vote for us to ensure he gets kicked out. Maybe lower polls are better for us?

Also a regular canvasser in a West Midlands marginal...the useless Ian Pearson!

I have to report back - sadly - that this latest poll does not back up recent findings.

Things up here are still very difficult for us.There are local issues with the Conservative Dudley Council not popular for threatening to sell off the local Glass museum which includes many borough treasures,an ongoing issue too with a Govt/EU grant to basically rebuild every school which we have voted out - but failed to get the message over as yet to the electorate.

Contributers are correct...Labour is down to its core - I'd say between 30-33%...the Lib Dems here have a core of around 15-20%,we have been as high as 50%....but for the past 6 months have struggled to pass 40%...

Ball park as of today I'd guess us 40%,Lab 33%,Lib Dems 18%,BNP - who are strong on several estates and take more votes from us here than Labour at around 9%...

of those who confirm voting intentions ....

Our biggest problem in the Midlands remains DC/GO...they just dont connect in middle class West Midlands seats - seats which ARE VITAL...to a Tory Govt...

Interestingly if WH/KC are discussed as Leader and Chancellor..our rating jumps by around 15%....

Still everything to play for and we have a real opportunity here of gaining a dozen or so not so marginal and marginal seats!

Seymour, what other seats do you realistically think we can take bar North Down and South Antrim?

"This factor might just scrap Brown home in 2010"

Of course there are seats that will probably return a labour PM almost regardless of the national situation. It's the seats like those of Swindon, which currently returns two Labour MPs but which changes hands with the national trend, that really matter. The tide has been changing in Swindon for a number of years now. It used to have a firmly labour controlled council but now is has a Conservative administration. At a ward by ward level, many of the seemingly impossible to capture seats have fallen yet again to Conservatives. Swindon will return two Conservative MPs at the next general election. It is places like this that will cook Mr Browns goose. Labour are finished for now here and good riddance.

For those who think they can play around comfortably now, just use logic!

IF the priority is to sweep this bunch of nasties off the face of the earth then you vote for those who are likely to take over. It's simple.

You may not trust Cameron but it's the alternative. So just use logic. At least you'll have got rid of scum and hurt them like they've hurt us. The next lot will hardly be triumphant with the catastrophe they'll have to deal with.

I wouldn't handle it limply as the Cameroons probably will do, but I'd treat it in a "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil. tears and sweat" manner.

We really should be pushing this petition:
Go To The Country
The Labour party knives will finish the job after the June local elections!

The unions are preventing a Labor recovery as by holding the purse-strings they can stop Gordon Brown following reform policies that if done radically enough could anchor Labor in the center-ground and improve their poll ratings. By untying the LEA's grip on academies & be setting no limits on either their admissions policy or the total number of them Brown could woo middle class parents. By saying that if a person could not be treated within the average EU waiting time at their local hospital they could get treated privately for free at a private provider if it cost less than the NHS - Labor could claim to be learning from their Social Democratic brothers on the Continent by making the NHS as good as in say France or Germany by treating more people faster. The NHS would have to raise its game or face losing funds to private firms just as LEA run schools would have to get better or risk facing cuts as more pupils went to academies.

Likewise if the retirement age for people working for the state & the state pension age both went up to 68 in stages the Brown could claim it was a fairer system and to have solved the pensions crisis.

If shed loads of QUANGO's got closed , hived off or merged then the basic personal allowance could be raised to take say 250,000 people out of tax altogether while public borrowing would be say £35 billion less than planned in five years time then Labor would both benefit the working poor ( supposedly 'their people ' ) and gain greater economic credibility by having a plan to restore economic stability.

If the PM did all these things with a view to making local schools & hospitals better while sorting out pensions and cutting taxes responsibly for the poor & middle class then Labor could regain some lost support by effectively addressing matters of concern to the voters. This would make life very tough for the Tories as Labor delivered on a center-right agenda.

But the unions who will finance Labor's bid for a fourth term in office would never wear it so we can look forward to good opinion polls between now & the general election.

Ross - I agree 100%...

The biggest fear is no overall majority - in that instance who knows where Clegg and Salmond would line up?...

I can forsee the Lib Dems having around 50-60 seats and the SNP having maybe 12-15 seats as the Labour vote falls to around 30-33%...

My fear is I cant see Salmond siding with us and I fear Clegg is too weak to follow his instinct and side with us and the likes of Cable would see a Chancellorship looming in a Lab/Lib Pact with PR on the agenda...and someone other than Brown as PM...maybe Harman?

Whilst I don't go as far as agreeing with John Reeks and dismissing this as a rogue, I do think we should wait until we have at least a couple more similar ones before get too excited. Don't get me wrong - I am delighted at this but I know I am not alone in believing there are dangers in over optimism!


Belfast East and Upper Bann are the other two I have in mind but winning 4 are at the more pessimistic end of my view of our chances.

I believe there are other seats which are very catchable and I dont care what the DUP does.

I disagree with many of the assumptions being thrown about. In particular, UUP/Conservatives are over-pessimistic about their chances of getting a significant number of catholic votes. This is not just anger over Caitriona Ruane. There are Catholics out there that have genuinely taken a shine to David Cameron. Unless catholics are lying to me just to make me happy, I am meeting these converts frequently.

"One has to ask what 28% of the electorate think is positively appealing about Labour nowadays"

Their paycheck ?

Alan Douglas

Is there a regional breakdown for Scotland?


You're right - best to assume neither SNP or PC would be of any help to a minority Con government. As you say it depends what the Lib-Dems do. But when the Lib Dems were hammered in the '07 Scottish election and suffered big losses, they were then in no mood to support another party. If the Lib Dems lost even 1/3 of their strength I'm not sure they would be desperate to support any other party - rebuilding and creating a distinctive message would make much more sense for them.

Also, remember that if the Con are the largest party in a hung parliament, they will be the largest party in terms of votes by a big big margin nationally. This increases the 'moral' legitimacy - in a hung parlaiment would Clegg keep Labour in office if he had suffered losses himself and Lab were miles behind the Tories in the national vote? Might be risky for him.

Still, I believe a Con majority is more likely, but not in triple figures.

Chris C.


I may be wrong but is Ipsos/Mori not one of the pollsters that breaks the UK into 4 or 5 parts, one of which is 'North', ie North of England plus Scotland? If so there wouldn't be separate figures for Scotland.

Chris C.

As someone who is out a lot in a marginal I can report that this does back up the results we are seeing on the doorstep.

I have said for some time now that the feeling on the doorstep now is worse (for Labour) than when we had bigger leads last year.

I never believed we were 20 points ahead last year, I am now sure we are given the results on the doorstep.

Some of the people on here are obviously just trolls who hope that there comments will be picked up and used against the party.

Get a lif wud ya!

Wow I am sure I shouldn't be amazed, but that paragon of unbiased, impartial reporting, the BBC, has not thought to mention the latest poll. Oh, of course, they don't do they, except of course the one before Christmas where Brown was only 1% point behind - but that was different wasn't it, definately, err um

I stated above I would never vote for the Conservative Party, A Reformed Labour Voter replied as follows..."With such a closed mind, there is little call for differing policies, debate or democracy. A tribal headcount will do a similar job.

With this type of mentality my friend, Mr Mugabe has been scraping home since 1980."

Perhaps I should have said 'I will never vote for *a* conservative party(small c small p) . Obviously if the Conservative Party suddenly started supporting higher taxes on the rich, investment in public services, higher minimum wages and trade unions, I'd have to consider voting for em.

My breath is not currently being held.

Wonder where Jack Stone has got to? It is obvious to all that those who were panicked by the so called Brown bounce where totally wrong.The fact are simple enough:

The Government has no idea how to handle this crisis.Every supposed new initiative tely or fix has fallen flat and due to the dire economic management of the last 12 years Brown is totally boxed in.The CBI now warn that in their estimation a further £100 billion would be required to mittigate the effects of Brown's recession.However coming on top of Northern rock,the bank bail outs,the commitment to National Rail and the ticking time bomb of the Off sheet PFI'S we simply can not go down this route.

Our economy is unfit for purpose.Public Sector Productivity levels are dire and have allowed to be so at a time when the government has pumped more and more cash into the sector.This has funded higher and higher pay whilst leaving the consumer with impoverished levels of service.

There is much pain ahead.We must wean ourselves off debt and push through difficult reforms.Cameron will find the battle tough when he joins battle with the Health and educational establishment.It would be well to prepare public opinion now.

NijelJ - I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed that! BBC's policy on never reporting opinion polls went out the window when the Comres Lab36% / Con37% poll was published in December...

Chris C.

David Belchamber @ 12.33 - 'If GB had any integrity, he would, in the best interests of the nation, call an early election.'

David, Gordon Brown does not appear to understand integrity, and he has demonstrated more than once, that either he does NOT have the best interests of the nation uppermost in his mind, or that he does not understand what the 'best interests of the nation' - even Scotland, are.

Mr. Brown's primary interest in life has always been, to become Prime Minister, and then STAY PM. But secondary to that I would suggest that Mr. Brown is an ideologue, a theorist (although not a visionary), and as such he would still like to successfully implement in this country, the far left doctrines like Marxism, which unfortunately, in practice, have proved so unsuccessful - USSR, Cuba etc:, but he seems oblivious to that!

Hence I would suggest that the Shadow Cabinet had better brace themselves, for lot more s..t and dirty dealings, to be wheeled out in the near future - the charming team are no doubt ensconced AT THIS moment conniving some smear or near libel, which will surface in the next day or two!!

Polls go up and polls go down. We are in the winter, the headlines are bad there is bound to be polls like this. Bit of nice spring weather and a few surveys that may suggest that the economy is picking up and the gap will narrow.
I suspect that the next election will be very close.It would not surprise me at all if 2010 is a repeat of 1974 and we get a hung parliament.You are making a big mistake if you think the election is in the bag.

When was the last time C > (L+LD)?

"Hence I would suggest that the Shadow Cabinet had better brace themselves, for lot more s..t and dirty dealings, to be wheeled out in the near future - the charming team are no doubt ensconced AT THIS moment conniving some smear or near libel, which will surface in the next day or two!!"

Patsy I fear you are right! We should be prepared for anything.

Patsy to call the Prime Minister a Marxist is complete nonsense. Gordon Brown is at heart just an old fashioned Socialist who knows that he as to moderate his views to get elected.
As for integrity I think he is a hard man who is prepared to fight hard but I think he is not this evil man many on this site like to paint him. I also believe this nonsense reflects badly on the Conservative Party and drags politics into the gutter.

if Major had gone to the country in 1996 rather than 1997 he might have lost less heavily.
Holding the General Election campaign during an EU Summit was a somewhat peculiar thing to do, the BSE crisis and sale of Railtrack in 1996 effectively killed any chances the government had of winning in 1996, in fact by 1997 Labour probably could have brought the government down whenever they felt like, but with there being a minority administration it gave them the opportunity to have influence on policy before a General Election and so have a claim to some experience and come into office with already some of their ideas put into practice.

As for John Major in 1992, I think the Conservatives would have won an overall majority in 1991 as well and in fact at most points from when Michael Foot succeeded Jim Callaghan up until the Pound crashed out of the ERM throughout which period I doubt there was any point where Labour would have come through a General Election campaign to win an overall majority.

Opinion polls on voting intention are about as reliable as tea leaves, they are frequently way out.

There is no doubt though that the days of Labour getting 100+ majorities is gone for good, and the Labour Party's future once it looses office will consist of death pangs giving the semblance of life before it fragments.

This is Ipsos Mori who sometimes show some fairly wild fluctuations. Additionally, their sample size is only 1001. I would be happier if this was a U-Gov poll with a sample size of 2000+.

Nevertheless, it's good, so onwards and upwards comrades.


I take your point - GB is neither an evil man nor a moron. He is an intelligent man, but he has in my view very poor judgement and poor common sense. He has shown on occations kindness, compassion, strength and vision... But these have been fleeting individual moments while his government has struggled to demonstrate what it is for, reliant on external crisis like the floods of '07 or the Glasgow terror attack or the banking crisis to 'leap into action' and connect with voters.

But the majority of Labours 3rd term has been characterised by drift, dither, contradiction and short term thinging. ANY government would have had a boost in its poll ratings during the events I mentioned. But short of an outbreak of plague or war with Argentina, GB won't have the luck of a run of new disasters to boost him before the election and the recession is clearly no longer a bonus for his popularity but a curse.

Chris C.

But short of an outbreak of plague or war with Argentina
If there were a war with Argentina then given the Defence cuts of the past 20 years it is doubtful that the UK would have the capacity to fight it long enough to win short of deploying nuclear weapons.

Chris C

I strongly disagree - Brown is a monster.

His hubris has the better of any good nature that he may have had. He is prepared to put himself above the the good of the country. He is willing to gamble the wealth of the nation on the slightest chance that he might win back a little glory for himself (and claim that it was planned all along).

Brown is out of his depth, he knows it but would rather take that risk than do 'the right thing'.

I believe he will step down before the next election - the one thing that is greater than his arrogance is his cowardice.

Don't get excited. Don't blow up this single poll result out of all proportion. And, for goodness sake - DON'T GET COMPLACENT.
But ...... Labour on 28%?!?
Like most people (try chatting in a supermarket queue) I find it difficult/frightening to believe that over a quarter of the voting population are still daft enough to vote for this bunch of money truffling shysters. Then I remembered; public sector jobs plus 3 generations of non-working underclass = probably quarter or more of the population.

Ipsos-MORI do seem to give a bonus to the party to which the trend favours. They narrowed our lead down to 1% not so long ago, lower than any other pollster.

Nonetheless, this indicates a step in the right direction.

All of a sudden Jack tells us polls go up and down as if there is no significance.I don't recall either him or any of the other labour apologists taking this line when the polls indicated a narrowing tory lead.

Jack I am afraid you will not get anybody indicating the economy is on the mend this year.No matter how much GB borrows and squanders the fundamentals are frightenningly bad.New Labour has had it's time and the lines have been well and truly fluffed.Many have become to quote Mandelson "stinking Rich" but Labour's traditional supporter is condemned to life on benefits with poor schools no family to support them and only their lawless peers for comfort.What a wasted oppourtunity eh Jack

Has everyone here calling for an early General Election signed this petition yet?


It may only be gesture politics but imagine if thousands of people signed it?

So now imagine Silent Hunter looking out at you from a fading poster with a walrus mustachio and an accusingly pointed finger saying............

"Your country needs you"!...........VOTE!

But still the BBC report nothing of this poll. Tonights 'expert' commenting on the Bank Bonuses? Mr John Prescott.

This is outrageous. The BBC dominate the News service in the UK - from the Today program on R4 in the morning, through 5 Live during the day, bulletins on TV, Radio & on-line right through to Newsnight on BBC2.

Surely we will put an end to this New Labour Propaganda Machine when we take power.

Now there is a Privatisation I'd like to see. An end to the waste, self righteousness and an end to this Left Wing mouthpiece.

Great Poll but remember the Labour/Brown scorched earth policy. It's going to be very tough not to be blamed for the neccessary austerity required to balance the books. It will be the election after next that will determine this Country's place in the World.

"Your country needs you"!...........VOTE"

Ok S.H. I will sign the petition as well. Its just a great shame that this signatures already provided include such name as Tony Blair,Barack Obama and P.enis. Its at best gesture politics and at worse farce.

Come polling day, couldn't the tories deliberately alienate (say) the 5% of their supporters who would most likely vote lib dem rather than labour?

For the rump of the 'SDP' to finally kill off Labour as the main opposition party would be a delight to see.

Oldrightie, you raise a very valid point.

However, much depends on how the history of this economic meltdown is written. If the narrative is that it was Global factors which overtook an otherwise robust economy, as Brown claims, then you may be right.

If history records more accurately that Gordon Brown's arrogance, ignorance, incompetence and recklessness were major factors and that Labour Governments always end in economic disaster, then we should be okay.

Look at any of the serious economic or even political commentators - almost all describe how the FSA was at fault and that Brown was the architect of the tripartite system. Also none suggest that Brown's 'saving the world' (translation headless chicken antics) are likely to work.

Look at how the late '70's are viewed with the 'Winter of Discontent'. And Mrs T went on to win in 1983 and 1987.

To refer to my earlier post, this is why breaking up the BBC News domination is so critical to our future.

May I suggest a new slogan?

Labour - the binge borrowers
Conservatives - the super savers

Jack Stone at 16.55:
"I think he is not this evil man many on this site like to paint him".

I agree, I don't find him evil though I do find him deeply unattractive as a person e.g.
* he is disloyal (as he was to Blair)
* he is discourteous (turning up late in Lisbon etc)
* he is very bad-tempered
These are not so important; I am disappointed that a son of the manse could be as deceitful as he has been about e.g.
* stats about violent crime
* claiming that inflation is half the true figure
* claiming that the credit boom and bust was not of his making
* claiming that unemployment is just under 2M (when it is about 5M).
Even those things I could put up with, as sadly you do not expect too much truth from politicians, but he has been so incompetent e.g
* giving the banking sector three masters
* selling off half our gold reserves at a third of today's price
* wrecking company pension schemes
* ceasing the 10p personal tax band to give him the money to reduce the 22p rate to 20p, leaving over 1M of the very lowest earners with higher tax to pay when real inflation was nearly 10%, which eventually cost the taxpayer £2.3M to bail out his mistake.

Finally, he supported Blair in taking us into a possibly illegal war, has curtailed our liberties, has politicised and demotivated a once superb civil service and burdened virtually everybody with red tape.

He and Darling dithered for months before doing anything about Northern Rock. He was correct in his desire to save the banks from total collapse but, after nearly £50Bn injected into the system, there has been hardly any benefit - because he did the wrong things.

I really do not think the country can afford another year of this man.

I am not ashamed to say for a 6ft 17st man,when i saw this poll i squealed like a girl.

Yes this has really made my day!


The comments by PP about our infamous PM, certainly mirror my own views. Behind the scenes, there must be intense pressure for him to go. Hopefully, this will be sooner rather than later!

And the news today?

Stella Rimmington, former Head of MI5, accuses New Labour of playing on peoples fear of terrorism to push through new powers which erode civil liberties.

Tessa Jowell's husband (and former Labour councillor) is sentenced to four and a half years for taking a bribe from Silvio Berlusconi. Mr Berlusconi is a good friend of Mr & Mrs Tony Blair.

The bankrupt RBS, which was bailed out with Billions of Pounds of Tax Payers money by Gordon Brown announce 175 million Pounds in bonuses for staff. The 'do something PM' forgot to stipulate that the condition of the bail out would be that bonuses would be void.

"A good day, pet?" asks Sarah Brown.

"Well, we're getting on with the job..in very difficult circumstances" replies Gordon.

"That's not what I asked" says Sarah

We know how you feel Sarah. We only have to put up with this cretin for just 18 more months. You've got him till death do you part.

Still at least you chose him, which is more than we ever did.

Oldrightie is quite right to point to the legacy that may come our way. The way to meet that is to tell people in advance that we din;t have a single answer (as I've said before Churchill offered "Nothing but Blood, and tears and sacrifice and sweat" - we rallied to him:) Please you Cameroons show some guts, show some determination and tell the truth. Then people will rally to us.

Before i saw the poll,i was watching Ken Clarke on Sky News.

He could walk into the Treasury tomorrow & do a better job than the Chuckle Brothers,Brown & Darling.

Osborne is being schooled by the master.

David you like many start off well but when you state that unemployment is five million you just go over the top.
I am all for attacking people for making mistakes but I don`t think it furthers the political debate by attacking there character.
People are turned off by politics nowadays through this sort of thing.
We need to concentrate on attacking policies not people.

So Asquith - what message are you sending to the LibDems then?
And if everybody took that view - what sort of result would we get? A return of a Brown Govt maybe?

If you want Brown out then you need to vote conservative.

And - Andrew - the LibDem core is less than 15-20%. The last vestiges of 1997 tactical voting have to unwind. You reckon the Tories need an eebygum flat cap northern leader? So, only the voters in the south have the brains to work out for themselves do they what a Tory leader is all about, only southern Tories can make a sound judgement of someone from out of their environment?

Remind me where did Mrs Thatcher come from? Where did Enoch Powell?
Sounds like Local Tories are not helping - can you blame Cameron for that?

Your remarks are condescending to your fellow locals. A leader has to come from somewhere - and as a Lancastrian I want one the whole country can relate to as a human being. Guess what I think we have one.

Jack Stone,

I do actually respect you coming on here,especially in light of this poll.

Speaking as a former New Labour voter,i have something to ask you,be honest looking at Gordon's performance,if you could turn back the clock,would you have kept Blair,be honest Brown is a disaster.

If you want to look a the fiscal problems,what is the problem & what is the cure.

USA Budget $3.1 trillion.
USA debt $10.72 trillion

UK Budget £687bn($1.1 trillion)
UK debt £654bn

So you can see if we had the political will in this country we could solve this.

Richard - I think Brown is a disaster too but Blair's (and Labour's) poll ratings were declining sharply before his exit as leader.

Even if we still had Blair as PM I dont think Labout would be any better off now - in fact the link between the present shambles and the whole original newLabour project would be even more obvious with Blair as PM.

Either way is good for us though!

Chris C.

What is Dolly Draper saying about all this?


Either way is good for us though!

Could not agree more!

hey,if we can't be nice to Jack we have a 20 point lead,when can we.

Jacks is mourning.

Did anyone see the dreadful spectacle of Prescott charging like a sweaty fat pig to the rescue of his leader tonight on the boob tube. Grief the man's a walking obscenity, an utterly despicable little spiv. Loads of free advertising for his web site Go 4TH, they are not giving up without a fight. If that had any integrity they would resign.

"Wonder where Jack Stone has got to? It is obvious to all that those who were panicked by the so called Brown bounce where totally wrong." - Winston

What is Dolly Draper saying about all this? - Ben A.

Speak of the devil - and the second question is probably answered as well!

A sample of 1000? The standard error will be more than 5% for the three main parties. This poll is virtually worthless. Why bother to do it?

BTW, why did Conservative Home miss this evening's mass protest against Westminster Council's motorbike tax in Victoria Street? There were thousands of them!

"I am not ashamed to say for a 6ft 17st man,when i saw this poll i squealed like a girl.

Yes this has really made my day!


In R4's The Westminster Hour on Sunday, there was a piece on the civil service helping to prepare opposition politicians for government in the run-up to a general election. In it, a senior civil servant noted that in '97, Labour had kept their intention to make BoE rate setting independent secret until after the election, and then quite simply told the civil service to sort out the nuts and bolts and make it happen. The cloak and dagger was because they didn't want anything to leak before the election, so that it could be Labour's first 'big bang' act in government.

I really, really hope that the Conservatives are planning the same approach to privatising the BBC.

David Belchamber @ 20.23, your comment was great and itemised and illustrated the weaknesses and defects, of a man who has helped to get us - as a country into such a muddle!

And Jack Stone @ 20.34 - 'We need to concentrate on attacking the policies not the people.'

Actually it is the PEOPLE that MAKE the policies, so if the people are flawed, likewise, it is very likely that the policies will be flawed!!

This is as much thanks to Kenneth Clarke as anyone else! He is well liked by the public and seems to be able to speak for the 'working man in the pub'.

He is 'the face of acceptable conservativism' as he has so often been outlined as.

His "keep an open mind on Europe" principals from when our party actually had a reasonable policy on europe is to be welcomed. (Today we have a pathetic nationalist Lord Palmerson-like nationalist little islander euro-scepticism, its poor politics and wrong for Britain).

Chris C, 16:10.

That's right.

Regional breakdown:

North: C 38, Lab 38, LD 17, SNP 4, BNP 2, Grn 2, UKIP 1
Midlands: C 49, Lab 27, LD 16, PC 2, BNP 2, UKIP 2, Grn 1, Oth 1
South: C 57, Lab 20, LD 19, BNP 2, UKIP 2, Grn 1
London: C 49, Lab 23, LD 16, BNP 6, UKIP 3, Grn 2

re comstock | February 17, 2009 at 16:22

The evidence is fairly consistant that higher taxes on "the rich" reduce the tax take. The very rich can avoid it, the moderately rich rearrange their affairs and do less, at a cost of jobs at the same time

I fail to see how public services is an investment. What is the rate of return on the investment, how is it quantified. I suspect you mean expenditure. There is also no evidence that government doing, rather than governing is the best model either. Rather there is substantial evidence to the opposite

If you care to take a look at the free market foundation you will see how wage legislation and restrictive employment law has actually increased unemployment. It is rarely a good idea.

I will agree that large employers warrant unions to counter them, so long as they restrict their interest to that of their members. That is where it breaks down, especially with zanulabour who is hand in glove with the snout in trough oligarch interests.

Jack Stone at 20.34:

"David you like many start off well but when you state that unemployment is five million you just go over the top".

I agree with you, Jack, that people do get carried away on political blogs (you only have to look at some of the Labour ones to see that) but what I am trying to do is to cut out the emotional response and concentrate on the facts.

In this it would help, of course, if Gordon Brown used the correct ones in the first place.

You are quite right to challenge my statement that 5 million people are now unemployed, as it is over twice Gordon Brown's figure. Unfortunately as we have already discovered, so too last year the real rate of inflation was twice Gordon Brown's figure.

Five million unemployed comes from Tim's post on Monday last "Voters won't resent necessary Tory austerity...". It was picked up from a CCHQ analysis which stated "Real unemployment is now over 5 million".

I imagine that you would like to see a proper breakdown of that figure. So would I; the correct figure might only be 4 million.

Are there any other comments that I made in my post at 20.23 that you are not happy with? As I said, I do want start with facts and figures that are much more realistic than this government produces.

There will always be a hard core of voters who will support a major party be it Labour or Tory. Remember the dark days at the end of the major Government and after Blair's 1997 landslide? Some still stayed loyal to the Conservatives.

I'd say that there is likely to be 25% core for both Labour and Conservative and 15% for Lab-Dems, the remaining 35% being those who either vote for the minor parties at a general election or who are the genuine uncommitted "floating voters" .

It does not surprise me in the slightest that 25% of voters who respond to opinion polls will back Labour though thick and thin. Better to leave them alone and concentrate on the undecided electors.

My other concern is that with figures such as these the Conservatives may get complacent. I'd be a lot happier to see poll figures giving a majority of 40 to 50 at this stage.

I can recall 1967-1970 when as a teenager I first became interested in Politics. Starting with the gain back of Glasgow Pollok by Esmond Wright at the by-election the Tories were sweeping the boards with spectacular Parliamentary by-election and Council wins, even Glasgow had a Conservative Council with a working majority in 1969-70! It looked like a Tory landslide was on the cards. However from late 1969 the polls started to come back to Labour. In the mini-election in late 1969 when five Labour by-elections were up for grabs on the same day the Tories only narrowly won Swindon. In early 1970 the Polls showed a small Labour lead for the first time in about 3 years and the Local Elections in 1970 were good for Labour. Wilson went to the country in June and it looked as if he would win again but in the event Ted Heath won for the Conservatives with a small but workable majority.

I am NOT trying to be a Jeremiah but I always remember that hubris precedes nemesis. Just how firm such a large lead may be needs to be tested in a by-election preferably in a marginal or winnable Labour seat.

New Labour are a very weak group of people with no idea of how to run a country, or take control of anything; no forward thinking. I cannot see how raising the 10p tax on the lowest paid helps them. Did away with married couples' allowance. Two cannot live as cheaply as one.
Jackie Smith has so far claimed over £100,000 in housing benefits on 'her' second home. How can renting A ROOM from her sister be referred to as 'her' second home. It must be a very high rent and no doubt her sister is paying income tax and NI payments on this large income. Jackie Smith has had to take 'advice' from her advisers on the subject. Can these people not think for themselves? I wonder how much the rent is? There is more to this than meets the eye

This means that the Conservatives will probably take office as inflation starts to take hold in 2010 as a result of the increase in the money supply which is taking place now and subsequently.
They will be blamed as it turns into hyperinflation over the following years. The unions will demand huge pay rises to compensate their members, strikes and civil disorder will become the norm.
If anyone thinks that taking over from Brown the currency debaser is something to celebrate then I think they need to look at history and see that extremely bad events always follow such a course of action.

I am amazed that 28 % of the people still vote for Labour. Anything above 1 % is bizarre at this point in this economic climate.

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