Liberal Democrats up sharply in ICM poll

It's just one poll but the two notable things about an ICM survey for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph are...

1. A 6% increase in LibDem support.  Let's see if other polls find the same movement before getting in any way excited about it.  I can't think of why it would be justified.
2. Labour at 28% is back at pre-bailout, pre-frenzy levels.

ICM also finds voters evenly divided about the implications of the Lindsey refinery dispute.  50% back a tighter regime for EU workers and 46% think EU citizens should be allowed to work freely where they want.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Tony Sharp]

If that poll was reflected uniformly at the General Election, giving us a majority of 20, I would be quite happy. It might keep Conservative minds focused on what people in this country want.

[Simon Holder]

The Lib Dems had coverage of their education plans on the BBC News at 6 and 10 one day late this week. Bizarre given how little the Conservatives got coverage for their plans (though this is the BBC!). Could it simply be that in the same way as David Cameron does better when he's on tv, if the Lib Dems get a bit of airtime, their recognition factor goes up?

[Dorian Pride]

It's always dangerous to draw to many conclusions from one poll. It's not be a great week for a number of reasons. Some may feel that we should have been more supportive of the Strikers. In which case they are wrong, but that is politics. It could simply be a that they have had a little more airtime. It could also be the start of a libdem comeback, which would probably be more damaging to Labour than us.
Becoming complacent would be a mistake, but the reality is that the libdem are very unlikely to gain a lot more ground.A majority of 20 would be a very poor result under the circumstances.

[RichardJ]

Interesting, am tempted to call "rogue poll" if only because I can't see what would have justified the LD surge.

[will.b]

I do have a feeling that the constant repeating of the same messages by both Cameron and Brown will be a turn off for ordinary voter. Punch and Judy politics is well and truly back and the Lib Dems seem to be benefiting.

[Scott Carlton]

I'm sure this pool will make some uncomfortable reading for Conservative HQ, and so it should. Even after the front bench reshuffle we still have people on there who are not hitting the big punches. For example the other night on Question Time, I thought Teresa May did very well, however she was overshadowed by an impressive Nigel Farrage. I have warned on other posts about not addressing the threat of a swing by people to the Lib Dems, particularly Vince Cable. The up and coming European elections are going to be interesting in my opinion, and I see a massive voter increase for UKIP, and quite possibly and sadly the BNP.

[Jonathan]

Yeah, I would verge on saying rogue poll. I mean, up six is pretty big, and before that they were polling at around 14/15%.

But by no means get complacent. We need to be ready on all fronts - especially against the Lib Dems because Labour will be responsible for their own downfalls.

Personally, I don't like this lovebombing technique. We do need to point out the disadvantages of the Liberals, but do it in such a way that is constructive not just 'The Liberals would do this... the liberals would do that' etc etc.

[Raj]

Labour will hate being back under 30% again. Conservatives should feel happy that they're in the 40s with ICM for the second time this year.

[Conand]

Simon Holder, the BBC are reporting our plans today, but through the distorted lense of 'where Cameron will send his kids to school' (which has been discussed before). Then through a grammargate lense. Finally you maybe get one line about Michael Gove's radical and utterly sensible plans.
I also noticed that Carol Vorderman's Maths Taskforce wasn't mentioned on the BBCi text service. The next day BBCi had quite a long piece about the Govt's smoke and mirrors launch about promoting science (and of course nothing about Scientist's concerns about the changes to Science funding.)
I know that there is a website dedicated to discussions (and/or rants) about BBC bias. I just felt I had to have a bit of a go on here.
There seems to be a feeling of inevitability abroad about various things at the moment. In that kind of climate a party that can just snipe from the sidelines will obviously be well positioned. (Sorry Eric, somebody seems to have defused my lovebomb today)

[The Bishop Swine]

RichardJ

I agree its most likly a "rogue poll". Dorian has a point, it could be a case of soar grapes resulting from the Wildcat strikes. In which case we were still right to avoid encouraging the strikers.

[michael mcgough]

Others up 2%?

[Classical Liberal]

Could the lib dems replace Labour as the next official opposition? A fiscally conservative government, a socially liberal opposition, and not a socialist in sight of the dispatch box!Manor from heaven!

[Iain]

It shouldn't be a surprise the Conservatives are shedding support again for they are going through another Blue Labour phase.

[David Belchamber]

"Could the lib dems replace Labour as the next official opposition?"

That is a wonderful thought, Classical Liberal; I would be very happy with that situation.

This is likely to be a rogue poll but if it turns out not to be, the conservatives must give some thought to what ConHome and many other people are telling them, especially that our media people are not getting our views aired sufficiently often. Vince Cable is frequently on TV and outshines most (not all) conservatives on economic matters. Only Ken Clarke, John Redwood and Michael Fallon impact on viewers the way Cable does.

[Tony Makara]

The liberals only chance of having any influence on government would be a lib-lab pact, a Conservative victory would do nothing for the Liberal agenda, so don't rule it out. If Clegg wants some say in government, that really is his only option. Don't rule it out in spite of Mr Clegg's harsh words about Labour.

[Iain]

"are not getting our views aired sufficiently "

Well when they do, like Teresa May on Question Time, they don't know what Conservative values are, nor do they have the wherewithall to argue them even if they did.

[Leo Enticknap]

Scott Carlton writes:

"For example the other night on Question Time, I thought Teresa May did very well, however she was overshadowed by an impressive Nigel Farrage. I have warned on other posts about not addressing the threat of a swing by people to the Lib Dems, particularly Vince Cable. The up and coming European elections are going to be interesting in my opinion, and I see a massive voter increase for UKIP, and quite possibly and sadly the BNP."

Agreed. I hope that UKIP campaign very effectively in the strike hotspot constituencies, so that at least anyone contemplating voting for a single issue party does so for them rather than the BNP. By continuing to hammer home the ambiguity around the Posted Worker Directive, the Tories should be able to limit any potential Tory to UKIP swing, leaving their only potential defecting vote being from Labour.

Can't agree about May. On virtually every question she was outdebated (or rather, out crowd-manipulated) either by Farage or Chakrabati, and in some instances both. Though admittedly the torture question played right into the latter's pet issue. The only consolation was Hoon's 'stuck record' performance and how badly it went down. As for Will Young I really wanted to strangle him, especially after his assertion that anyone wanting schools to open in the snow was a killjoy. As a millionaire pop singer, he doesn't face the wrath of the boss if he fails to make it into work. The fact that the audience cheered his every half-baked and barely coherent point confirms my suspicion that the BBC recruits audiences who are either lefties or morons or both (plus also for R4's Question Time).

[The Bishop Swine]

"and not a socialist in sight of the dispatch box!Manor from heaven!"

Goodness if the children of Israel had been pelted with Manor's from heaven things would be very different now. "not a socialist in sight of the dispatch box" what a lovely thought though Manna would not taste as sweet.

[Tim Montgomerie]

Gloy Plopwell will find this LibDem momentum "stupendous" no doubt :)

[Oberon Houston]

LibDems have upped their game recently - Clegg has been on a townhall tour geeing up activists, lots of coverage recently etc... That said, don't think itll last

[T. England]

Why can’t the Tories start to plant seeds in the publics head that the Liberals are the best party to have as an opposition to them? That way the Tories are not seen as being negative but helping the public decide on a sensible option to the Tories that will best benefit the country?

Just an idea, >shrugs shoulders<.

[m dowding]

Could the lib dems replace Labour as the next official opposition? A fiscally conservative government, a socially liberal opposition, and not a socialist in sight of the dispatch box!Manor from heaven!

Posted by: Classical Liberal | February 07, 2009 at 14:13

-------------------
It will happen, watch this space!

[Anon R]

This week "Lib Dems up 6% " ; last week they won 6 out of 7 local by-elections.There is a stirring the land !!

[strapworld]

Brown must be foaming at the mouth!

Rogue Poll or not it shows that the Labour Party is facing extinction. It will kill of the talk of a lib lab pact now!

Clegg will now be considering that they could become the official opposition and the Conservatives will have to give the people want they want - a CONSERVATIVE government not a LabourLite Government.

May was a disgrace on Question Time. How she can be in the shadow cabinet amazes me.

John Redwood. David Davis. Fallon. Raffkind they are needed. Clarke has proved a hit. Bring in more heavy hitters now.

Is Cameron too NICE?

[Sally Roberts]

No comment from Gloy Plopwell so far, Tim! :-)
Gratifying we are still in the 40's but I think we should be careful not to ignore the Orange Threat which could deny us crucial seats in that West and South-West London area that we need!

[Patsy Sergeant]

David Belchamber @ 14.31 '...especially that our media people are not getting our views aired sufficiently often..'

David I would be VERY surprised if Conservative MP's can just ASK THEMSELVES on to TV programmes (apart from Question Time).

C4 News has been very pro Liberals for years now, so they wouldn't be enthusiastic to give a 'Tory' MP airtime unless they felt they could skewer him/her.

The BBC has had some left bias for a long time, but lately I fear, apart from programmes like Panorama, which reports like the BBC used to do, I think that the BBC is now acting as the unofficial arm of the Labour Party in terms of political reporting!! So I hardly think that they are going to allow 'Tory' MP's to air policies that would undermine their bosses!!!!! And actually didn't our beloved leader have some talk or other with Vince Cable AND according to some report or other he used to vote Labour anyway, or be an activist, so of course he would be given lots of airtime on the BBC.

[micheal m]

It is Vincent Cable who is getting people across! Every time the media want "an expert" on economics- who do they send for? Not GO or KC but VC- example being Newsnight on Bank bonus scandal.

Can't Central Office get Cable fixed- for Heavens sake offer him a place in a Conservative cabinet if he will come across- at his age he has nothing to loose!

[Sally Roberts]

micheal m you make a good point! Vince Cable virtually IS the Lib Dems....should he (perish the thought of course) have an Unfortunate Encounter With a Bendy Bus, they'd be in real trouble.

[Super Blue]

"Gloy Plopwell will find this LibDem momentum "stupendous" no doubt :)"

........... or "suspendous"?

[Another Lib Dem]

Do you honestly imagine Vince Cable accepting a Tory Shadow cabinet post ? You must be in cloud cuckoo land ! As for saying
Vince "is virtually the Lib dems" what about the 22% of the electorate in today's poll. Sally was much more correct when she earlier admitted the "orange threat". Life gets exciting !!

[Jack Stone]

When elected Cameron had a real opportunity to reach out to the Lib/Dems and did seem to make an effort at first but sadly when the going got tough and the polls looked dodgy he played to the right-wing and lost all opportunity of doing that.
I think people are fed up with party politics and really want to see party`s co-operating for the benefit of all. The party who starts to reach out to other party`s will benefit and I wouldn`t be at all surprised if in the coming months you will get Labour do this and perhaps say that they will offer seats in the cabinet to people from other parties should they win.
Its such a shame that the party as a coward as leader and lost the opportunity to do just this.

[Nicholas Keen]

Well, the irony: support bleeds to the Lib Dems right as Mr Kenneth Clarke is reintroduced as insurance against just that -- and at the price of further alienating the Thatcherite Conservative base that Mr Cameron seems so intent on irritating, but may well need if he is to win.

[Mavies Millicent @52]

"Why can’t the Tories start to plant seeds in the publics head that the Liberals are the best party to have as an opposition to them?"

It doesn't work like that. The Lib-Dems are not to be trusted. Do you not recall that the Lib-Lab pact kept a very bad government in power? I would be quite happy to see the house of commons become a labour party free zone, but not at the price of supporting the Lib-Dems. In local politics they have quite a bit of power, and the reality is they are as bad if not worse than Labour when they get the chance. They may appear like rather pleasant if wine soaked folk, but the fact is they are a dangerous political force which we must fight tooth and nail for the sake of Britain. There are places in the country were they run a close 2nd to Labour, even there its far better to encourage people to vote Tory. As a vote for the Lib-Dems is always a wasted vote.

[MG]

Every time a poll comes out people try to draw specific conclusions. Very occasionally there is a poll that might be like that but most are snap shots with in-built analytical problems (although they are much better nowadays) so it is better to look at a few over a period of time and make general observations.

What can we say with some confidence? Firstly the Conservative polling is at the 40% plus mark. Secondly the Labour polling is at around 30%. Thirdly its not quite clear where people will go with the third party, whether the pollsters are getting the Lib Dem analysis right and what impact this has on the figures for Conservative and Labour because of shifts between parties.

My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are doing well but are not crystallising the vote sufficiently and focusing the message clearly. I don't think its about how right or left they may be but more clarity of purpose.

[David Sergeant]

Hm, After Thatcher, Sarko, Clarkson and anti EU strikes. Not much to help the Lib/Dems there.

[A Cllr]

One poll doesn't mean everything has changed. We need to see in two weeks time if this is the case. It may be people were tired this week, snowed in and though "politicans are all the same" - a thought which helps the yellow peril.

Support isnt bleeding - I notice the trolls come out at the smallest piece of news which they don't like but when the news is positive they say nothing.

[ashley rochdale]

Time to stop the love bombing of the Lib Debs - they are odious - we need to make sure of victory - hit them hard - and yes lets get rid of Clarke - and commit to pulling out of Europe - - if we promise to do this - we will start a bandwaggon in June that will be unstoppable

[T . England]

@ Mavies Millicent @52 , 16:29

I’m still just a newbie to politics really, although almost middle aged, I’ve only really got into it over the last few years, sometimes I think I need to told, reminded of things & pointed in the right direction.

Thanks for doing that for me ;o)

[Malcolm Dunn]

Let's see if these figures are repeated in other polls before we draw many conclusions.
Clegg has probably won a few points for his attack on 'bankers' but I fail to see any other reason for this increase in share.

[MG]

Hilarious Ashley, just about the most certain way to get Conservatives to go down in the polls so much so that I wonder if thats your intention really.

[Matthew Reynolds]

The Liberal Democrats are a right pain ! The risk is that at a start of a general election campaign while the Tories might be in the lead with the pundits forecasting a big Conservative majority - the Libs tend to have a higher share of the vote in a general election than they did in the polls at the start of an election campaign.

My point is that while Labour cannot win - the Liberals could stop the Conservatives from winning. A 22% vote share in 2010's general election could ensure that Nick Cleggs coat-tails rescue many a Liberal Democrat marginal from Cameron's Conservatives. That would mean an extra thirty gains from Labour might be required to get a majority Tory government if we cannot halve the size of the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Delegation.

It proves Eric Pickles right inasmuch as the Liberals could get extra air-time during an election campaign and get more votes - they are a threat and a love-bombing campaign is a rational response. People do not want to be called stupid for voting for the Liberals - by showing that a Conservative government can deliver on things like global poverty & the environment Lib Dem types will vote Tory.

Vote Blue Go Green worked a treat in the local elections as voters deserted Labour for the Conservatives and as the Liberal vote fell each time Cameron led us into the local elections. In numerous Labour held seats the Liberal vote is greater than the Labour majority over the Conservatives. So we have to love-bomb Lib Dem voters if we are to regain former Tory seats not just from the Third Party but from Labour.

This poll is a timely reminder that the Liberals could rob us of an overall majority in the next House of Commons. We cannot take gains from them for granted as even in razor-tight Lib Dem marginals they have increased their majorities ( as in Cheadle & North Norfolk in 2005) as they do choose local candidates capable of ingratiating themselves with voters. MP's can get a personal vote of up to a 1,000 votes based on people voting for them rather than their Party ( so some experts claim) - so a narrow Liberal majority is not always an easy one to over-turn ( as the Tories found out in Torbay & Lewes in 2001).

Some people such as Simon Heffer even claim that Gordon Brown engineered Sir Menzies Campbell's downfall to ensure that Nick Clegg would be Liberal Democrat Leader and thus prevent a Tory recovery in the South of England ( vital if a fourth Labour term in office were to be secured at the next general election).

So this 6% Lib Dem poll rating rise to their 2005 general election share of 22% thanks to them getting good headlines on the back of campaigning hard on bread & butter issues like education ( while the Tories & Labour lose support)is a warning of what a general election campaign could see happen.

Eric Pickles needs I think to spend much time in Liberal Democrat held marginals and in Tory seats where the Third Party are a close second. That is the key to preventing a Hung Parliament and ensuring a majority Tory government after the 2010 general election.

[pp]

It may be rogue - but I think its plausible.

Maybe this is the tipping point of labour stalwarts finally accepting the reality of browns incompetence - those that would flee to the conservatives maybe already have, the only place left for the remainder is lib-dem.

Ashley - drop ken clark, withdrawal from europe - I would be sympathetic to both, but these are things that would lose as many as they would gain/gain as many as they would lose... so best stick with the leaders line...

I disagree with a number of things cameron has supported - but I would much rather try to persuade him once he has power, rather than try to persuade labour of anything - they are completely detached from everything.

[John Smith]

Be careful about what you call for - I hate this overly intrusive Labour state, its spitting on my rights and liberties, its incompetences and failures. What stops me from voting Tory? I'm terrified about what Cameron and his allies will do on Europe. If the cost of getting rid of Labour is us leaving the Union, then that cost is too high, and one I am not prepared to pay. A categorical assurance that the Tory leadership sees our future in Europe, as a fully involved member state would go a long way towards convincing me and many I know that a Tory government isn't too big a risk.

[J. Trudgill]

If you have been watching the local by-elections results for the past two or three weeks, they would suggest that the LibDem poll swing is not out of place.

Not in all wards involved, admittedly, but possibly in a majority, the LibDem swing is of the order of 6%.

I think that Cameron & Co need to investigate what is going on. Is it just the normal by-election tactics they use, or is there something more?

[Sally Roberts]

John Smith's comment is an interesting one and reminds us that not everyone belongs to the Better off Out school of thought!

[Norm Brainer]

...an interesting comment, but probably jack stone under another name.

Interesting in that they refer to definitive article, "The Union" I expect meaning the EU instead of the UK

[John Smith]

Norm, I could try to assure you that this IP is not 'Jack Stone' under another name, but i'm sure that would go nowhere, and only Tim could provide a definitive answer. As regards articles, the United Kingdom is a Kingdom. The European Union is a Union - I didn't realise that referring to things under their legal and proper names wasn't the done thing...

[The Bishop Swine]

If somebody wished to hide their IP, they could use an IP masking service. Just for the record and so nobody feels they are being deceived, I am posting from a network. There are 4 users here 3 of which post to this site. Just for the record.

[chris southern]

It doesn't matter who takes labours place if we are to stay in the EU.
All of their intrusive schemes (data bases, loss off liberty etc) are all EU legislation, a lot of it brought in through the back door on other acts as well.

I'm not a big fan of David Cameron as many on here know already, he does have some good ideas though.
Unfortunately his stance on the EU means we will still have the draconian rules being forced upon us.
We will still have to pay ridiculous taxes and fines to pay for it all as well.

Promising a referendum on the lisbon teraty is an empty promise, as it will either be null and void by the general elections or it will already have been forced through (the irish p.m. is already making promises to the irish that he could not keep under the lisbon treaty!)

Time to get nasty Dave, don't hold back and people will follow you.
it will also stop the lib commies from taking more lab communist seats.

[The Bishop Swine]

John Smith as far as I am aware there are no current plans to quit the european union. Personally I think we would indeed be "better of out" but its far from a majority view. I very much doubt that the current leadership would commit to a complete withdraw. I think the most we can hope for, is to redress the balance by gaining back some of our National Independence. Just as the Conservative party is unlikely to join the Euro, it is unlikely to undermine our now fragile economy by turning its back on the important, indeed vital, markets of Europe. Thats the reality but we can dream can't we?

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I think it is pretty simple. Libido Dems go up because they've spent all week bashing the banks and getting on TV. Labour lose support because core working class unionised voters are unhappy at allegedly being "undercut" (even though this isn't true) and seeing fellow workers lose out. We lose some of our more nationalistic supporters to UKIP over "British Jobs for British workers" and being too pro-free trade.

[Jill, London]

Patsy Sergeant @15.28 – To set the record straight - Cable was a fully paid up Comrade! He was a Labour councillor in Glasgow, he co-wrote a ‘little red book’ with Comrade Brown – with one of their aims to nationalise Scottish banks [!!!] – and he stood as a PPC for the Comrades. He only left the Comrades when he lost out as PPC to Comrade Livingstone in Hampstead. Now he’s a Liberal – and has proven disloyal to his party leaders, too.

Mavies Millicent @52 – you are so right to warn against the Liberals! “Do you not recall that the Lib-Lab pact kept a very bad government in power?” And this continues – it was the Scottish Liberals that kept the Scottish Labour Party in power in their Scottish Parliament – until the SNP took control last year. A vote for a Liberal MP keeps the Comrades in power.

[Scott Carlton]

Hi Leo Enticknap

Theres going to be some serious debating over the single market and the UK's involvement in the European Union particularly as the recession drags on. Mr Farrage has a touch of the Ken Clarke about him, he's down to earth, pragmatic, and can show a normal side which alot of politicians struggle to do so. I would place him alongside Vince Cable as the most likely to do damage to a Tory European and General Election Campaigns. Another factor to be taken into consideration is the party's ability to destroy itself, which I think is actually off the cards but past history shows that it is still possible. I hazard a logical guess that the Uk economy and the UK's future in the EU will dominate the next election.

Is it possible to see a poll that includes feedback on peoples intentions to vote for other political party's? The electoral calculus website is good, but its only one side to the story. Currently the EC website gives a majority of 62 for the Conservatives.

[Peter Harrison]

ICM tend to produce a higher share for the LibDems than other pollsters. Looking at actual election results, other pollsters tend to underestimate the LibDem vote share whereas ICM get it about right.

The LibDem figure of 16% in their last poll was surprisingly low for ICM, so that was probably an outlier on the low side. Their previous four polls had shown the LibDems on 18% or 19%. This one could be an outlier in the other direction, or it could be that the LibDems have improved their vote share a little.

This still gives us a healthy lead and is the second poll recently to show Labour below 30%. I wouldn't try to read anything into the 4% fall in vote share unless other pollsters start showing a similar fall.

[Old Hack]

Thought/Query: Has the weather somehow screwed with the sampling?

There is no plausible explanation for such a swing.

[Graham D'Amiral]

Let's wait and see if any other pollster records a similar increase in lib dem support, so far all we have is one ICM poll that is out of step with every other poll in recent times.

As for those people desperate enough to link this poll to results in a few random local by-elections what would they make of a recent by-election on Bexley in a former lib dem ward where they came 4th out of 5 candidates?

[James Maskell]

What an odd poll. The only thing of any note from the LDs was the announcement of their education plans. But most of the work on that such as a pupil premium had been laid some ages ago.

The strike might have ahad an impact, but did the LDs comment on it, to the point that they would get a 6% boost? I dont recall any comments.

I suspect this is a bit of a rogue poll. Id be amazed if this was the start of any substantial recovery for the LDs.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Vince Cable has been allowed a completely uncritical passage by much of the media.
I can't imagine why but might well be intentional to defect rupturing labour support away from the Tories. Most of what he does is statements of the bleeding obvious and I would like to see him given a more severe work out.
In electoral terms the improvement of he LibDem position in this latest poll might be overstated but moving from voting Labour to voting Tory (and vice versa)sometimes involves a comfortable stepping stone at first and the LibDems always prosper temporarily in times of political flux.
No doubt some commentators will make much of the fact that they appear to closing in on the Labour vote which would be the most vivid way of illustrating collapsing support for Brown.
The standard of general debate on QT the other night was pretty appalling.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Line three of my previous post should read "deflect" not "defect".

[Jill, London]

Scott Carlton @ 20.38 – I don’t know why you think Cable is “the most likely to do damage to a Tory European and General Election Campaigns” [along with Nigel Farage].

Cable is an arch political opportunist, and his position on the EU is typically two-faced – but the fact is he is part of the Liberals and their Party is extremely pro-EU.

[Super Blue]

John Smith,

I quite believe that you are not Jock Stale, because:
You can spell,
You can punctuate,
You don't like Labour policies, particularly their database state.

[Gloy Plopwell]

Fabulous news, Lib dems on track to overtake both the other parties this year.
Lynne Feathersone's majority in Hornsea and Wood Green will be 25,000 next year with suspendors momentum. The following day, the Lib dem cabinet will be appointed, with an overal majority. Very excriting.

[Julian Melford]

All polls reflect limited samples, and it's quite possible there was nothing major to tilt people from us to the LibDems. The next poll should compensate.

The fieldwork was carried out on 4/5 Feb, and the only recent 'negatives' might be

1. William Hague opposing British jobs for British workers, which doesn't gel with half the population (although the LibDem position is the same).

2. Dissatisfaction with Tory local authorities over the weather response (although a General Election is not about electing a council).

Question Time late on Thursday would not have made a difference to this poll. Teresa May came across as a bit smug in an otherwise oddball panel.

Whereas Nigel Farage got some good applause, he looked as if he had some eye complaint and occasionally came across as slightly hectoring.

[corporeal]

Talking about a 6% boost is more to do with the last poll than this one I think, which had the Lib Dems unusually low for ICM (yet the words rogue were never mentioned on here iirc) and as Mike Smithson argues they do tend to be the most accurate.

Take a midpoint and put us (I am a sandal wearer) at around 19-20% is closest to the truth I think. Which is where ICM had us in December, and I don't think anything's really changed since then.

[Scott Carlton]

Jill, lets just say he was warning off all the dangers the country was about to face before any shadow chancellor did, (corfugate also springs to mind) and Cable has been the most consistent politician throughout the whole crisis. And like others I thought Farrages performance on QT was by far stronger than Hoon/Mays performance, and he has likeable qualities with the electorate, hence my statement that these two could do more damage to European and General Election campaign. Im sure we will find out sooner or later.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Thank you Jill,London @ 20.29

I think that when campaigning, we need to ask people - Do you like this government, or do you want to remove this government from office. If the person addressed says that they want to get rid of this government, then we much explain that they need to vote Conservative ONLY, because the Conservatives are the largest party in opposition.

Some people have a preconceived idea of a 'Tory' party, which is why - I think - that quite a few disgruntled voters will pick on LibDems and Ukip. I am not mentioning the BNP, because I am talking about middle of the road voters. So one has to say to those groups that if they are really fed-up with this government, then they have to just vote for the party most likely to bring back the largest number of MP's into parliament. After all when there IS a new government with new policies, then those voters, who don't think that they like Conservatives, can investigate the alternatives like LD's and Ukip - at their leisure, secure at least that more of their liberties are not going to be taken away in the meantime!!

[Gloy Plopwell]

Some of the stars of the Lib ddem cabinet in 2010 -

Foreign Secretary - Jo Swinson
Work & Pensons - Sarah Teather
Chancellor - Lord Ashdown
Deputy PM, leader of House - Ed Davey
Agriculture - vince cable.

and much much more to look forward to.

[Jill, London]

Scott – You – and Cable’s fan club the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation – may think he has been consistent about certain economic matters, but he ‘flip-flopped’ over whether nationalising Northern Rock was the right move. Moreover, Financial Times journalist Sam Jones – in a piece headed “Vince Cable, loony” [yes, really – see heading of link below!] – berates Cable for getting his facts wrong in a Guardian article about BARC – and for being inconsistent [no surprise as Cable is an arch political opportunist]: “So apparently the LibDem Treasury spokesperson would rather the UK taxpayer was taking the risk here. Odd, because not so long ago, Cable was thundering on about the unbearable burden the taxpayer was being forced to bear.” Link: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/31/17684/vince-cable-loony/

As for Nigel Farage, he certainly is highly articulate, but “likeable” isn’t a word I’d use to describe his demeanour. Like Julian Melford, I think Farage comes across as rather hectoring.

Considering UKIP lost the two seats they held on the London Assembly last May [and – yes – I know they kept changing their party name!], and the BNP gained one seat there – I wonder if this will be replicated in the European elections?

[Jill, London]

Hello Patsy Sergeant – I couldn’t agree more! If only we could get this message across to certain Liberal voters that by voting Liberal they are keeping the Comrades in power.

Another problem is right wing voters choosing UKIP in general elections. It has been estimated that we lost about 40 seats in 2005 thanks to UKIP because they helped Comrade MPs get re-elected by default.

[Bill Pipe]

Looks like this poll is a "rogue" one. They probobly polled the Outer Hebrides & the Scilly Isles and nothing in between!

[Tapestry]

ICM's a rogue poll, inasmuch the manipulators of British elections, who are now habitual employers of postal vote fraud and ballot box tampering, require pollsters to steer the vote towards the intended result before the ballot riggers do their job.

Glenrothes was clearly a rigged result, as was Sedgefield. But so too was the result of the 2005 General Election rigged, where there were 4 million postal votes cast, and the marginals saw the largest surge.

Britain is a faux democracy now. And pollsters are part of the game.

[ashley rochdale]

Oh come on - is that really the best we can hope for - I repeat again - to be certain of victory - we need to commit to getting out of Europe - then no need for ukip - they will all come back to us - I tell you - we would ride huge wave to victory - we can do it you know...

[Scott Carlton]

Jill, I actually take offence at your comments you have posted in your response to my last post. Whilst people are entitled to there own opinions, I certainly have no intention of joining any other polical organisation other than the Conservative party. I am purely highlighting some issues that I think are relevant to the forth coming elections, wherever you agree with me or not, which you obvisously don't, however there is certainly a concern for the party in this recent poll, and yes I do understand this is one of many polls that are completed on politics.

[West London Tory]

ICM, as I understand it, put a shade of past vote weighting in.
I think they do it for some of the people who don't give an answer to the main Voting Intention.

I suspect the argument is it's a cross-check of the sample, but one could argue it's also a contradiction in terms, as a poll should be about the here and now, nothing else.

Anyway, the LDs polled scored higher in the 2005 General Election so this weighting benefits them.

There also seems to be a fair degree of volatility in ICM - but there are arguments for and against that.

I'd wait to see more polls, before pressing the panic button.

[Jill, London]

Scott - I apologise for offending you – that certainly wasn’t my intention.

Whilst you were “highlighting some issues” re forthcoming elections, I was just pointing out some counterarguments.

[John]

Brown is increasingly seen as a headless chicken who has presided over the biggest bust in our history. He's not attractive, nor a good communicator. Remind me how he ever became PM..

The lefties need a new home. So desperate are they that this poll suggests that they are turning to the Lib Dems. Sweet Lord!!!

The BBC News machine will back this shift because it's pro-EU, has enforced multi culturalism/PCism, big state, even bigger taxes.

Our first policy should be to break up and sell off the BBC or 'socialist mouthpiece'. Let them compete with ITV & Sky et al.

On another note: People seem to like Vince Cable. He looks like a benevolent uncle. But have you heard him? Isn't he supposed to have passed some tests in economics? He's another true 'Spendy Spice'. I couldn't believe what I was hearing. More loony left economics.

It would be 'out of the frying pan into the fire...'

[Wolfenstein]

Perhaps there are a group of swing voters who switched from Lab to Lib because of Brown's 'British Jobs for British Workers' debacle.

I can't see his combination of dishonesty and nationalism going down well with Guardian readers, for instance.

[Super Blue]

John,

Ploy Glopwell has seen through Cable - doesn't want him as Chancellor. I wonder?