Liam Fox was in a determined frame of mind at this morning's Conservative Friends of Israel briefing on yesterday's elections which - even by Knesset standards - have produced a messy outcome. (The joys of proportional representation).
The Shadow Defence Secretary worried that paralysis might result from the result and Israel could not afford uncertain leadership in a year in which Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear power.
Dr Fox worried that Iran was absolutely determined to acquire nuclear weapons. It has seen North Korea's experience as proof that the world will not enforce the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and they are determined to join the 'nuclear club' of nations.
If Iran gets a nuclear weapon the risk is not just that they might use it against Israel, he said, but that they might provide a dirty bomb to one of Tehran's terrorist surrogates; not least Hamas. A nuclear Iran will also trigger an arms race across the region - provoking Turkey and Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons.
Also at the meeting David Lidington MP said that it was vital that the EU matched the USA's sanctions regime against Iran. He also said Russia and China needed to be pressurised to pressurise Tehran. Mr Lidington, a Shadow Foreign Minister, said the great problem facing western policymakers was a lack of intelligence about thinking within the Iranian regime.
> Liam Fox has also written for The Telegraph about the nature of Hamas:
"It is a general rule that those with nothing to lose are likely to be willing to gamble with it. Give people a stake in their own prosperity, security and freedom and they behave in a more circumspect way. It follows that if you want people to be in a perpetual state of anger, reconciled to terrorism and ripe for Jihad, then the maxim of Marxism that less is best pertains. Having purged the moderate Palestinians from their territory, Hamas have rocketed the power station in the Israeli city of Ashqelon which provides electricity to Gaza itself. The people of Gaza are sure to be the losers but Hamas will not care."
Averting a nuclear Iran is the most important issue in the world today but I bet it gets a fraction of the comments below the Councillor With A Page Three Calendar post!
Posted by: Umbrella man | February 11, 2009 at 11:50
Nuclear proliferation must be halted, whether it be Iran or the ambition of a less controversial state. The way to check Iranian ambition is for the world community to offer to help Tehran with its energy needs, so the dash for nuclear power cannot be used as a smokescreen to develop an armed nuclear capacity. However it is important to engage and not isolate Iran over this issue. The bloody-mindedness of the Iranians is legend and if detatched from the world community Iran is more likely to make a rod for its own back, with the inevitable consequences.
Given the result in Israel, there is great danger that Netanyahu may opt to govern with a reduced coalition majority rather than agreeing to share the spoils with Livni, however that will afford great influence to Lieberman, who will want direct action taken against Iran, which Lieberman claims is the number one issue for Israel. So the world community must act quickly to neutralize Iranian ambitions before Israel uses a military option.
Posted by: Tony Makara | February 11, 2009 at 12:14
Russia and China pressure Iran?... Uh-huh.
Posted by: Steevo | February 11, 2009 at 12:25
"A nuclear Iran will also trigger an arms race across the region - provoking Turkey and Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons." Whereas a nuclear Israel provokes no one? Really, what utter tosh.
Posted by: ACT | February 11, 2009 at 12:31
So what are we going to do - bomb them into democracy like Iraq and Afghanistan?
Posted by: Edward Huxley | February 11, 2009 at 12:33
Edward Huxley. I think that is probably what Fox as in mind.Personally I have always thought it a tad hypocritical for nuclear countries to say to non nuclear countries like Iran that we can have nuclear weapons but you are to backward and dangerous to have them.
I think our opposition to nuclear weapons would have much more force if we did more to get ride of our own nuclear weapons.
Posted by: Jack Stone | February 11, 2009 at 13:05
Iran becoming a nuclear power is inevitable just like many other countries if they pursue this option. If North korea with no money can get there then so can the rich nations of the middle east. Its a question of dealing with nuclear powers instead of hot air about prevention. If Russia, US, UK, France, India, pakistan, Israel & china can have them why not other countries?
Posted by: Adam | February 11, 2009 at 13:28
Try this for a thought. The Iranian leadership want to provoke an attack from Israel. They have significant numbers of long range missiles with which to respond. They may even target Israel's reactor at Dimona. I suspect that the Iranian people just want to be like Turkey.
Posted by: Forlornehope | February 11, 2009 at 13:47
Jack, I completely share your abhorrence towards nuclear weapons. However they exist and we can't disinvent them, much in the same way that we can't get rid of the gun or the spear. The only option open to us is to control proliferation of nuclear weapon technology and set limits on the arms of nuclear states.
A great deal has been achieved in this area, but much more can be done. Iran having access to nuclear technology will unsettle the region and invite a response from Israel. The world community must pull out all the stops in trying to avoid such a scenario. Israel too must hold its fire look to diplomacy to resolve this issue.
Posted by: Tony Makara | February 11, 2009 at 13:49
Jack Stone:
” I have always thought it a tad hypocritical for nuclear countries to say to non nuclear countries like Iran that we can have nuclear weapons but you are to backward and dangerous to have them.”
This one is terribly popular among groups such as teenagers, Kumbaya Internationalists, Greenies etc (who sincerely believe this tosh despite their not having thought about the matter at all deeply) plus e.g. various species of Socialist whose advocacy is more disingenuous. It presumes that Realpolitik is a game of cricket, and we all have an innings or it wouldn’t be – well, cricket.
I feel considerably safer in the knowledge that we have nukes, and such fruitcake states as Iran have not. Yes, Iran is “to [sic] backward and dangerous” in that it’s ruled by a medieval theocracy that has actively aided terrorist groups with designs on the West.
I wonder what ACT wants to do about “nuclear Israel” – bombard the country with Leftist derision, maybe? Bit late for that, and sensibly they don’t give a toss for people like ACT. Like Israel or not (I’m agnostic) their values are a damn sight closer to ours than, say, Libya, Iran, Saudi… And they’re considerably more hard-headed and rational than their Arab & Persian neighbours
Posted by: Malcolm Stevas | February 11, 2009 at 14:12
Again, Malcolm, and all other like-minded frothing nutjob, feel free to squeal at everyone you disagree with that they're 'left wing'. There's doubtless a long compound German word for this particular hysterical delusion, but there's a short English one, and it's boring. In point of fdull fact, I entirely agree with your conclusion: Israel *is* hard-headed, and, thank goodness, Iran's ambitions are considerably more directly their problem than ours. So let them deal with their problems while we get on with ours.
Posted by: ACT | February 11, 2009 at 15:05
"I think our opposition to nuclear weapons would have much more force if we did more to get ride of our own nuclear weapons."
History would indicate otherwise. In the 1990s we unilaterally reduced our nuclear arsenal by decommissioning all of our free fall nuclear bombs.
No other country even noticed.
Obama has announced his intention to cut nuclear warheads 'multi-laterally'.
Every nuclear power, except the UK, wants to be involved. We ofcourse can't be involved because we already cut our warheads.
Posted by: Tommy | February 11, 2009 at 15:14
Well ACT, I wonder what the German compound word is for people who immediately term those who utter ideas of which they disapprove as "frothing nutjobs" - ? A colourful & inaccurate piece of hyperbole along with "hysterical delusion". BTW compound words are on their way out, an observable linguistic phenomenon for those who study German.
I wouldn't be complacent about Iran; I too would be perfectly happy to ignore them, indeed ignore everything about the Middle East - an uncomfortable, insanitary, dangerous part of the world - but our national interest requires us to keep a wary eye on the buggers.
Posted by: Malcolm Stevas | February 11, 2009 at 15:28
The English word for people who react to being told (tediously, disengenuosly, and smearingly) that they're 'left wing', when they're not, is bored. Maybe you should stop shrieking 'you're left wing!' at Tories you disagree with it? But if your feelings are hurt, sorry, and, there there.
Posted by: ACT | February 11, 2009 at 15:45
Oje kinder, vielleicht sie meinen nur 'linksorientiertEierkopf' usw? Inwieweit muss die Debatte degenerieren?
Posted by: Tony Makara | February 11, 2009 at 15:56
ACT at 1231:
Israel does not sponsor terrorist organisations around the world.
Your comparison isn't legitimate.
Posted by: Umbrella man | February 11, 2009 at 16:13
Well if the US was to make significant cuts in the numbers of warheads it has, then it would make dealing with Iran a little less hypocritical. Firstly we should be a little less panic stricken by them, because Iran is really quite an advanced and mature Nation. They are a lot less crazed than Dear old George Bush was. We can do business with Iran I believe. Can they have Nukes, well NO, but we must recognize our moral duty to rid the world of them as well, bombs that is not Iranians. They; Iran are more akin to the french than us. So perhaps it is Frances good office that will prevail I do not want to go to war with Iran. Lets be rational about Iran and start talking of a settlement. On the other hand should your inclination be that war with Iran is (cough)prophecies fulfillment and that no amount of peaceful goodwill will prevail I do not support you thus far, and remind you of Lot and of Jonah, the lord is slow to judgement for all of the right reasons. It would make good business to re-arm
but it could make things rather toasty warm all over. Its a tough call. Israel is of course sacrosanct it has to be so Iran must be convicted of that fact as well.
Posted by: Ross Warren | February 11, 2009 at 16:13
I imagine, Umbrella Man, that the distinction between Iranian state-sponsored terrorism and Israeli state-sponsored terrorism seems obscure to this poor man: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLUJ4fF2HN4
But as I keep saying, Iran-as-a-problem is Israel's problem long before it's our problem. How Israel solves her problems really doesn't bother me. What does, though, to a degree bother me is quite why a few, very peculiar Tories keep insisting that we should try to solve Israel's problems for her.
Posted by: ACT | February 11, 2009 at 16:48
"Firstly we should be a little less panic stricken by them, because Iran is really quite an advanced and mature Nation. They are a lot less crazed than Dear old George Bush was"
Really? Which government would you rather live under? The Iranian people (especially the middle class) are indeed very civilised but the country's rulers are full-on nutjobs.
Posted by: RichardJ | February 11, 2009 at 16:52
ACT:
"..stop shrieking 'you're left wing!' at Tories you disagree with it? But if your feelings are hurt, sorry, and, there there."
Er, I suggest it's not me who's shrieking, old chap - calm down, you're in danger of flying into a towering snit. Next thing we know you'll be using multiple exclamation marks in addition to unnecessary italics...
As for your somewhat less literate pal Ross Warren, I too am, er, "Gobsmacked" I believe The Sun would say, at his suggestion that Iran is advanced, mature, and "less crazed...than George Bush". Nowt so queer as folk and all that. And ACT, that's fine if you're not a Leftie. Now don't forget your medication on the way to bed.
Posted by: Malcolm Stevas | February 11, 2009 at 17:36
Fox would be better spending his time ensuring we have a decent and capable defence force than making speeches which should more properly be Hague's.
What are we going to do about Iran? Answer came there none.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | February 11, 2009 at 20:26
The good Doctor is right, of course. At the moment, the mad mullahs of Tehran hire a haulage company (named Hamas) to deliver their rockets to Israel.
Posted by: Super Blue | February 11, 2009 at 21:47
If Iran get a nuclear weapon then sooner or later they will trigger a nuclear war. That, in and of itself, is the obvious reason not to let them. If that means bombing them or going to war with them, its a very high price. But nuclear war is a higher price still. If we fail to prevent them becoming nuclear-armed it will be the most tragic and enormous failure we can imagine.
Posted by: Steve Tierney | February 11, 2009 at 23:43
One of the many things Blair should be held to account for is making it a lot more difficult - and probably impossible - to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. He was complicit in starting a war on false pretences against a regime which, while evil and abhorrent, we know now and he knew at the time posed no threat to anyone beyond its borders (Saddam's Iraq).
Iran will become a nuclear power before very long unless it is prevented from doing so by force. Given that it's in Russia's and China's geopolitical interests for Iran to become a nuclear power, the amount of force required would be considerable, to put it mildly. Not only does that pretty much rule it out, but a highly sceptical public in Europe and America, which has been lied to once, is very unlikely to re-elect any government which commits its armed forces to participating in pre-emptive action against Iran (alternatively known as starting World War III).
Simply put, we blew it by invading Iraq in 2003 and left the regime causing the real problem alone to get on with it. Given that the regime in question is a theocracy that does not recognise or respect the principle of, and undesirability of Mutually Assured Destruction, I fear that we're going to find ourselves in significant trouble on this score in the years to come.
Posted by: Leo Enticknap | February 11, 2009 at 23:47
Malcolm Stevas.
We see this kind of response every day. You have nothing to add and nothing in the way of constructive argument, and so criticise the grammar, the spelling or the supposed illiterate postings of those you cannot argue with. I call that a lack of moral substance. Which has been the most prominent feature of the less essential members of this party for as long as I have had dealings with You.
Rather than playing better than thou, which self evidently you are not.What makes you such an expert on the Nation of Iran? I see no evidence that you know anything more than the xenophobic gutter press has taught you.
Do you believe that George Bush was a good president?
And if you are so keen on living in America why are you not over there?
Gobsmacked! Maybe you should read something more edifying than the Sun. Ronen Bergman has written at least one excellent book that dares to be honest about the game we are playing with Iran.
Posted by: The Bishop Swine | February 13, 2009 at 09:07
Israeli investigative reporter Ronen Bergman will be my guest on News Talk Online on Paltalk.com Tuesday February 17 at 5 PM New York time to talk about the secret war with Iran.
Please go to http://www.garybaumgarten.com and click on the Join The Chatroom button to talk to him.
Thanks,
Gary
Posted by: Gary Baumgarten | February 15, 2009 at 13:59
Israeli investigative reporter Ronen Bergman will be my guest on News Talk Online on Paltalk.com Tuesday February 17 at 5 PM New York time to talk about the secret war with Iran.
Please go to http://www.garybaumgarten.com and click on the Join The Chatroom button to talk to him.
Thanks,
Gary
Posted by: Gary Baumgarten | February 15, 2009 at 14:26
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