ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

David Cameron conveys his thanks for all the messages of support he has received this week

David Cameron this evening wants to convey his thanks to the thousands of people who have sent messages of condolence and support to him and Samantha in the wake of Ivan's death last week.

Every Saturday evening he sends out an email to a number of party activists and staff and this week he has taken the opportunity to send a brief message expressing his gratitude to all those who have been in touch, not least because he is not presently in a position to acknowledge them all individually.

Some ConservativeHome readers will receive his email in any case, but many will not, so we have been asked to publish David's message in full so that everyone who has written to him knows how much he and the Cameron family have appreciated it.

It reads as follows:

"Sam and I have been overwhelmed by all the letters, cards, emails and flowers we have received about Ivan. Sending an email this week just gives us both a chance to say a big "thank you".  It means a lot to know that others are thinking of us and him.

"We always knew Ivan wouldn't live forever, but we didn't expect to lose him so young and so suddenly.  He leaves a hole in our life so big that words can't describe it.  Bed time, bath time, meal time - nothing will feel the same again.

"We console ourselves knowing that he won't suffer anymore, that his end was quick, and that he is in a better place.  But we all just miss him so desperately.

"When we were first told the extent of Ivan's disability I thought that we would suffer having to care for him but at least he would benefit from our care.  Now as I look back I see that it was all the other way round.  It was only him that ever really suffered and it was us - Sam, me, Nancy and Elwen - who gained more than I ever believed possible from having and loving such a wonderfully special and beautiful boy."

David Ruffley announces "Mobile Urban Gaols" to spearhead Tory effort to let the police concentrate on policing

A pilot scheme of mobile prisons in crime hotspots - where police could process, fingerprint and fine criminals without needing to leave their beat and return to a faraway police station - is the headline proposal in the Conservative Party's plans to allow the police to concentrate on policing.

It is included in a new paper, Back on the Beat, published last night by David Ruffley, the shadow police reform minister, and you can download it directly as a pdf here or through the Conservative Party website. It comes at the end of a week where the recently appointed shadow home secretary, Chris Grayling, made his first speech in that role.

The main proposals included in the document are:

• A pilot of new specially-designed mobile urban gaols (“MUGs”) to go into crime hotspots that are afflicted by, for instance, knife crime and antisocial disorder. Police will be able to deal with more offenders more quickly without having to go all the way back to the police station. MUG’s can reduce the time offenders spend off the beat. MUGs will also mean a more visible police presence for the public.
• Reforming one of the biggest police paper chases of them all – the police having to fill in the length MG6 disclosure forms for the lawyers in the CPS.
• Abolition of statutory charging for a large number of offences - this means giving back powers to custody sergeants to charge offenders without having to fill in forms for the CPS lawyers and then spend further time waiting for those lawyers to make a charging decision. (David Ruffley first announced this policy in an article on ConservativeHome in November last year)
• Scrapping the current ‘RIPA’ rules that make a policeman fill in multiple forms every time he wants to stakeout a known burglar’s house or carry out plain clothed surveillance.
• Cutting the paperwork of stop and search recording.

David Ruffley said:

"Twelve years of Labour red tape and bureaucracy have wasted police time, keeping them away from front line crime-fighting. Labour have a criminal record - antisocial disorder, gun crime, violence, robbery, knife crime and stabbings are all up on their watch.

"We need to take the handcuffs off the police and put them on the criminals. The public want the police back on the beat which is where the police also want to be and these proposals are a start in achieving just that."

Jonathan Isaby

John O'Sullivan: Cameron's Conservatives aren't serious

Former advisor to Margaret Thatcher, John O'Sullivan, has written a piece for The National Review about David Cameron's Conservatives.  He contends that a lack of policy seriousness explains the hesitant nature of Tory support:

"Barring miracles, Cameron will be the next prime minister — handed victory by the sheer scale of Brown’s failure rather than as a result of confidence in the opposition. Why is there no enthusiasm for the Tories? Why have they actually lost their polling gains of last year? There are many possible answers, but the one that knits them all together is that the voters sense something not quite serious about the Cameron Tories. They share responsibility for the crisis because, like Labour, they assumed prosperity would continue forever. They went so far as to adopt Brown’s budgetary policies essentially as an exercise in political positioning and conflict avoidance. Even where they differed from Labour, as on Europe and immigration, they cannot benefit from the failures of government policy because they decided to downplay controversial issues. They avoided deciding matters that divided them internally, in particular foreign policy, so that open rows are now breaking out between Cameron’s senior colleagues over Iraq and Gaza. And across the spectrum they selected policies on the basis of their popularity with media liberals rather than because they would solve or ameliorate problems. In short, they abandoned a broadly coherent post-Thatcherite conservatism without having any clear idea of what might replace it. They are today ideologically and psychologically directionless. They hesitate and wobble indecisively even on so clear an issue of principle as free speech in the Geert Wilders controversy. They need something to believe in — so they flounder after silly ideological novelties, as in their recent flirtation with an interventionist “Red Toryism."

Read the full article here.

Monday 2nd March: Daniel Finkelstein has posted an open letter to John O'Sullivan, questioning his analysis.

European Elections will be first test for Conservatives and Unionists

This is the new logo for the 'Conservatives and Unionists' - launched in Belfast at noon today.

Owen Paterson, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary and the engine behind the new electoral alliance, issued this statement:

“I am delighted that the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland and the Ulster Unionists have made such great progress in creating a new electoral force in Northern Irish politics. The immediate task is ensuring that the Conservatives and Unionists top the poll in the European elections right across the United Kingdom. That will send a signal that Northern Ireland is turning away from the politics of polarisation. It will be a verdict on Labour’s disastrous decade of power and is the best way of defending Northern Ireland’s interests in Europe. We must all get behind Jim Nicholson, the Conservative and Unionist candidate – electing him to the largest UK delegation in the European parliament.”

> This morning's frontpage included links to last night's approval of the alliance by both Northern Ireland's Conservatives and the UUP.

Will recession impact the debate on civil liberties?

The Economist wants to know.  The Bagehot column questions the depth of the party's commitment to civil liberties:

"The Tories... are recent and wavering converts to the eccentrics’ cause. Chris Grayling, the new shadow home secretary, has made manly noises about wanting “fewer rights, more wrongs”. Other leading Tories are privately more authoritarian than their party’s officially liberal line. But they have made some commitments—to scrap ID cards, for example—that will be difficult to disavow, if and when they take office."

It reviews the trends that might impinge on civil liberties and those that will help them to flourish:

To impinge: "Precedents in Britain and elsewhere do indeed suggest that freedom often contracts in line with GDP. People get angry. They misbehave: crime may rise, as a leaked Home Office memo predicted last year. They march, demonstrate and occasionally riot: newspapers this week reported lurid police warnings about a forthcoming “summer of rage”. They become more susceptible to extreme, xenophobic voices: there is widespread anxiety in British politics about a breakthrough by the loathsome British National Party at the European elections in June. Capturing a Euro-seat would represent a triumph for the far right greater than any achieved by Oswald Mosley and his blackshirts in the 1930s. The big risk to civil rights could come in the way the government responds: in the methods it uses to contain the wrath, to cater to it and to distract the wrathful. It would, sadly, be unsurprising if ministers were to echo far-right rhetoric about immigrants instead of wholeheartedly repudiating it; they might tout even more inhumane policies towards asylum-seekers and terrorist suspects. Demos may be met with harsh counter-measures (Liberty was formed to protest against police treatment of the “hunger marchers” who came to London during the Depression)."

To flourish: "Even if penury encourages ministers to take shortcuts, a lack of cash for security projects will help. The technology of unfreedom is costly: number-plate recognition systems, identity cards and the government’s assorted, panopticonic databases of DNA and other information are hugely expensive (always much more so than is at first estimated). They will be a much harder political sell when spending in other areas is being cut. Faith in such databases has anyway been undermined by civil servants’ unfortunate habit of leaving discs and computers on trains, by the pool, etc. That incompetence has contributed to a general loss of confidence in government. The campaigners’ hope is that, as public disenchantment sharpens, it will take in a scepticism about over-mighty criminal-justice policy as well as about economic oversight."

Iain Dale has blogged about tomorrow's session at the Convention on Modern Liberty on The Right and Civil Liberties.

YouGov: Tories 10% ahead

More in The Telegraph.

Damian Green: "I regard anyone born in Britain as British"

There's been some excitement across the blogosphere today at this passage in The Daily Mail:

"Although the figures from the Government's Office for National Statistics show an increase in numbers of foreign born people they still fail to record the true impact of immigration because they record their children as British rather than second or third generation immigrants."

Daniel Finkelstein asks "Does the Daily Mail think I'm British?"

Shadow Immigration Minister Damian Green MP does.  He's just issued this statement to ConHome:

"I regard anyone born in Britain as British, unless they choose to take another nationality. Whenever I speak to a large meeting I ask how many in the audience have at least one parent born outside the UK. Generally speaking, the younger the audience, the higher the percentage."

Did Labour authorise Fred Goodwin's pension windfall?

Responding to reports that City Minister, Lord Myners, was aware of ex-RBS chief Sir Fred Goodwin's pension deal in October, George Osborne has just issued this statement:

"Even though Alistair Darling said he wasn't told about Sir Fred Goodwin's obscene pension pay off until last week, it now appears his City Minister knew last autumn. We urgently need clarifiaction of who knew, what and when in Government. If Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling allowed Sir Fred to walk off with £693,000 a year for life of taxpayers money, it would be a disgrace."

Earlier today Stephen Hester, Fred Goodwin's successor as CEO, told BBC Radio 4 that "the arrangements for my predecessor's departure were negotiated directly between past directors of this board, and the government, and him."

It is becoming increasingly clear that - on multiple levels - Labour mismanged the rescue of the banks.  This is another big blow to Brown-Darling's reputation for competence.

A brief glimpse of Samanatha Cameron's anguish

Posted below are the frontpages of most of today's newspapers - dominated by the tragic death of Ivan Cameron.  Most newspapers have a library photograph of David Cameron kissing his son but the frontpage of The Daily Mail is the most heart-rending.  The grief of Samantha Cameron is impossible for most of us to understand but it's difficult to look at the face of the Tory leader's wife and not feel pain (clearer photo here).  Let us hope that the paparazzi photographers now leave the Camerons to grieve in privacy. 

Geoffrey Levy in the Daily Mail writes about the impact of Ivan on David Cameron:

"One day Mr Cameron arrived at the House of Commons with Ivan in his pushchair. 'Ivan became quite a regular sight until Dave became the leader,' says a colleague. Almost imperceptibly, the talented young politician whom most had labelled as just a bit too upper-crust ever to get to the very top, seemed to be changing. 'His marriage became stronger, he became tougher - and that's when some of the gloss went off him,' says a close friend. 'For the first time in his life he was able to feel and understand the pain and suffering of ordinary people. 'Ivan's birth gave him a much greater sense of purpose and ambition. It spurred him on. In recent times when he has talked of his admiration for the NHS it hasn't been for votes but because he had seen it at its best, through Ivan, and knew what the service meant to the country.'"

Where to send donations in memory of Ivan Cameron

In the wake of the death of their son, Ivan, today, David and Samantha Cameron have requested that people don't send them flowers.

They are asking that well-wishers thinking of sending flowers instead send a donation in Ivan's memory to one of the following five charities:

• Mencap (123 Golden Lane, London EC1Y 0RT;  020 7454 0454)
• Friends of St Mary's Hospital, Paddington (Acrow Building, St Mary’s Hospital, Praed Street, London W2 1NY; 020 7886 6586)
• Friends of Jack Tizard School (South Africa Road, London W12 7PA; 020 8735 3590)
• Helen & Douglas House (14A Magdalen Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 1RW; 01865 794749)
• Shooting Stars House  (The Avenue, Hampton, MiddlesexTW12 3RA; 020 8783 2000)

Jonathan Isaby

Statements from Brown, Hague and Cable to replace PMQs today

As a mark of respect to David Cameron and his family in the wake of the death of his son, Ivan, there will be no weekly Prime Minister's Questions today.

Instead, there will be brief statements from Gordon Brown, William Hague and Vince Cable (who is deputising for Nick Clegg, who is on paternity leave), which we cover below.

Gordon Brown began by paying tribute to those recently killed in action overseas. He then expressed his sorrow at the death of Ivan Cameron, saying he knew "he brought joy to all those around him" He went on: "The death of a child is an unbearable sorrow that no parent should have to endure".

William Hague thanked Gordon Brown for his words on behalf of David Cameron and for initiating the cancelling of PMQs. He added that he had spoken to David Cameron this morning and also passed on gratitude to all the NHS staff and care workers who had cared for Ivan during his short life.

Vince Cable expressed his condolences on behalf of the Lib Dems and his hope that the Camerons would be given the space and privacy to grieve.

Michael Martin then expressed his own sympathies and suspended the Commons as a mark of respect to Ivan until 12.30pm.

Jonathan Isaby

Ivan Cameron has died

Extremely sad news has just reached us.

David Cameron's son, Ivan, died earlier today.

The BBC has more.

Needless to say, we send our deepest condolences to David, Samantha and the Cameron family.

Jonathan Isaby

11.45am:

The death of a child is a terrible, terrible thing. Extra terrible to have to cope with such an enormity when in the public eye. There are probably no words of comfort that can help the Camerons today but we offer them our thoughts and prayers.  Janet Daley has posted a beautiful poem.

We are all shaped by our experiences.  Close friends of David Cameron all say that Ivan was a huge influence on him.  It put his politics in perspective but it also contributed to his respect for the NHS and to his support for policies that help keep families together and strong.

The Conservative leader loved his son enormously.  His family life was built around his care.  All those close to the Camerons, and all those who visited his home, witnessed the huge demands involved in the care of such a severely disabled child.  The amount of time that Cameron spent away from the office sometimes worried political advisors but every mother and father would understand why Cameron chose to devote so much time to his precious son and to support Samantha.

Politics will soon resume but Gordon Brown - who lost his own baby daughter - issued this statement:

"Sarah and I were very saddened to hear of the death of Ivan and we have sent our condolences to David and Samantha. The death of a child is a loss no parent should have to bear. I know Ivan was a child who brought joy to all those who knew him and his was a life surrounded by love. The thoughts and prayers of the whole country are with David, Samantha and their family."

Tim Montgomerie

Should the Conservative Opposition do more opposing?

Iain Dale wrote a short but exasperated blog post late last night in which he expressed his frustration at the Conservatives' failure to oppose the Government on two measures yesterday: the part-privatisation of the Post Office and the blocking of the release of Cabinet minutes discussing the decision to go to war in Iraq.

On the latter issue, I am on the record as writing here just last month that Cabinet minutes are best kept private if we seriously want a return to Cabinet government, so I wholeheartedly back Jack Straw on that one;  on the Post Office my instinct too is that the Conservatives are right to back the Government.

But do you agree? Should the attitude of being a mature opposition, supporting the Government when it is doing the right thing, be scrapped in favour of bashing Labour whenever it might be politically expedient to do so?

Or should the party always put the country first, supporting Labour on certain issues, even if it means foregoing the possibility of inflicting an embarrassing defeat or two on the Government?

Jonathan Isaby

Annabel Goldie emphasises the need for a close working relationship between Holyrood and Westminster

Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie was in Westminster today to attend the shadow cabinet meeting - something which she will now be doing on a monthly basis. She also briefed Westminster based journalists, and took the opportunity to emphasise the need for her and David Cameron to work closely together, as well as for First MInster Alex Salmond to have a relationship with the UK Prime Minister.

She said:

“I think it is important for David Cameron and I to work closely together and I have decided that attending Shadow Cabinet at Westminster on a monthly basis will help cement what is already a very good relationship. In this digital age it is still important to meet face to face. I have been to Shadow Cabinet at Westminster on a number of occasions and know what a useful experience it is.

"Like David Cameron, I believe that the UK and the Scottish Governments need to work closely together as do Westminster and Holyrood. Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond do not meet with each other to stand up for the people of Scotland. David Cameron and I will.

"Gordon Brown has fallen into the SNP’s trap of gripe and grievance politics and it is threatening the Union. David Cameron and I will not make the same mistake. As Conservatives we are unswerving in our support for the Union and we will not allow the Labour SNP turf war to damage the UK.”

She went on to describe Labour as being "clumsy and inept" in terms of the way is has treated its relationship - or rather lack thereof - wth the SNP administration at Holyrood and siad that the key to a prodcutive relationship was "mutual repsect" between London and Edinburgh.

Tory members see Sugar as most dangerous opponent for Boris in 2012

Ken Livingstone is being Ken Livingstone in an interview with the London Evening Standard.  This quotation stood out from Mr Class War:

"We should shoot one banker a week until the others improve."

He confirms he'd like to run against Boris Johnson in 2012 but Tory members see Sir Alan Sugar as a potentially more formidable Labour candidate.  This was the percentages from our recent monthly survey answering "Who do you think would be Boris' most dangerous opponent in 2012?"

• Sir Alan Sugar: 31%
• Ken Livingstone: 28%
• Trevor Phillips: 13%
• Jon Cruddas: 8%
• Oona King: 6%
• Tony McNulty: 3%
• John McDonnell: 1%

David 'Mastermind' Lammy was written in most often in the 'Other category'.

The same survey of Tory members found great optimism about Boris' re-election hopes.  76% thought it was quite likely; just 5% unlikely and the remainder saying "it's too early to tell".

I'm with the "too early to tells."  When Boris won last year the average Tory poll lead was 12.2% in the ConHome Poll of Polls.  As blogged on Sunday Boris could be facing re-election two years into a Conservative government that is making tough judgments on tax and spending.

Tim Montgomerie

> Tory members sceptical about Boris' Prime Ministerial prospects

Brown may rely on Conservatives to part-privatise the Royal Mail

Afternoon update: Ken Clarke, the shadow business secretary, has put out the following statement during the course of the afternoon:

"Royal Mail is a flagship business for this country, but Victorian practices and inefficiency are at the root of its problems. Twelve years of shameful neglect by New Labour ministers have brought Royal Mail to its knees. We will support the part-privatisation plans, because what the taxpayer needs is a fully modernised and efficient postal service that can compete with the best in the world. It’s the best way to secure a future for Royal Mail and make sure that we can send mail anywhere in the country for the same price.

“But the Government must explain how they are going to tackle the pensions deficit at minimal cost to the public. This Government is already running up hundreds of billions of pounds of debt. We are ready to provide the Government with the majority that the Parliamentary Labour party won't let it have, because it is the best way to save Royal Mail."

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It happened with the Iraq War. It happened with foundation hospitals. And it also happened with Tony Blair's last big education bill: they all got passed by the Commons because Conservatives backing the Government outvoted Labour rebels opposing their own party.

And it would seem that a repeat performance will be required over the Government's plans to part-privatise the Royal Mail, set to be published tomorrow.

The CWU is threatening to disaffiliate from the Labour Party over the issue and scores of backbench Labour MPs have signalled their opposition to the move.

But with the Conservatives (and the Lib Dems for that matter) having signalled their backing for the move in principle, Gordon Brown can afford to press ahead in the knowledge that he can find a Commons majority with the aid of the opposition parties.

Jonathan Isaby

Could Gordon Brown save Caroline Spelman?

1pm Update: I understand that at its meeting this morning, the Standards Committee was unable to come to a conclusion as to what decision to take over Caroline Spelman's case. As such, I gather that the committee chairman, Sir George Young, intends using the next week to take soundings from among the committee with the aim of forging a consensus by the time the committee meets again next Tuesday. The report on Gordon Brown, meanwhile, is expected to be published this Thursday.

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The Press Association reports that the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, John Lyon, has finally passed on to the Commons Standards Committee the conclusions of his inquiry into Caroline Spelman's use of parliamentary allowances to pay a nanny-cum-secretary for two years during the late 1990s when she was first elected to Parliament.

The then party chairman referred herself to the Commissioner last June in order to seek exoneration and has had the case hanging over her ever since.

But it is interesting that the Commissioner has reached his conclusions about Mrs Spelman at the same time as another lengthy investigation into another high-profile parliamentarian, namely the Prime Minister.

As the Mail reported at the weekend, Mr Lyon has also just passed on his file on the complaint made by Tory MP Greg Hands a year ago about Gordon Brown's failure to declare his subletting of part of a constituency office to his local Labour Party.

At this moment in time, without any conclusions having been announced, both Caroline Spelman and Gordon Brown remain innocent of any wrongdoing until proven otherwise.

However, if the scenario were to play out in which both politicians are found to have broken rules, I suspect that we would see a "gentlemen's agreement" between both Labour and Conservative parties not to make political capital out of either case - whereas if either Mrs Spelman or Mr Brown were found to have breached rules as an isolated news story, there would be calls for sackings, resignations etc.

If that does happen, there would surely be further accusations of members of the political class protecting each other. However, we must wait and see what the Standards Committee concludes first. But it's a thought.

Jonathan Isaby

ICM: 12% Tory lead

Con 42%, Lan 30%, LD 18%. More in The Guardian.

More later.

11pm: The graphic you've all been waiting for...

Margaret Thatcher's journey from Finchley to Downing Street (in video)

Is this the BBC at its best?  The BBC's archive of Thatcher videos covering the time up until she became PM is now online.  I can think of quite a few people who won't be getting much work done over the next few days!

Tim Montgomerie

William Hague's prediction is coming true

Women's Institute members excepted, at the start of the Labour years nearly every charity, businessman or other social leader was fearful of saying anything negative about Labour.

That's all changed now.

It was William Hague who said that the public would go through a number of phases in its relationship with Labour, ending in contempt*.  We're close to that now.

Read this PDF of a letter from the Independent Academies Association to Labour ministers Jim Knight and Ed Balls. It drips with anger and frustration. The letter doesn't hold back from attacking the Government's increasing meddling in Academies:

"Your proposals, and the concomitant encroachment on the independent status of Academies, seriously impact upon the ability of sponsors, governors and principals to lead and manage their institutions effectively and efficiently, placing at risk the transformational change in the education system the programme was designed to facilitate."

Thank goodness Michael Gove is going to smash planning rules and other bureaucracy to make it much easier to set up new independent state schools that parents can switch to and transfer the state per-pupil funding, while also tearing up the current system of teacher pay and conditions.  If David Cameron holds his nerve and lets Gove loose, this will change the face of Britain and consign much of the debate of the last twenty years to the history books.

Tim Montgomerie

* Can anyone give me the exact quote, circa 1999?

5.30pm: Thanks to readers who found the quote (from 1999): "For when I spoke to you in this hall two years ago I said that New Labour would bring first fascination, then admiration, then disillusionment and finally contempt. At that stage the admiration was running high; now the disillusionment is beginning; and mark my words, they are not so far away from contempt." The contempt has taken a little longer than WH predicted but it has come!

Grayling gives first big speech on law and order as nation braces itself for a 'summer of rage'

Chris Grayling gave a speech earlier today on Britain's crime-ridden society.

It included two stories...

"Let me tell you a story about life in Britain today. It was told me by the father of a serving soldier, who will be risking his life for us in Afghanistan this spring. He was home on leave and was out in his local town centre when he was the victim of an unprovoked attack from behind by two youths. He was able to hold them off and the police were called. He was left badly bruised after what was a completely unpremeditated attack. The two young men were arrested, but then extraordinarily they were let off with a caution. That's life in Britain today. A nation where we appear so used to a violent assault of this kind that police only deem it fit for a caution. And where the incidence of an attack like this is routine and not a rare exception. I don't think there could be any clearer example of the fact that our society desperately needs change."

"Let me tell you another story. Of a visit I made to a run down area of Toxteth. To a family living in a seriously run-down block of flats. Two small girls and their mother. And every night, almost without fail, a gang of local teenagers gathered on the staircase outside their flats to take drugs. Leaving a state of debris and chaos around them. Breaking down doors to get there. And leaving a very scared family living in a state of misery. And I left the building after talking to them with one dominant thought in my mind. Why is this being allowed to happen?"

...and damning facts...

• "Violent crime is up almost 80% under Labour. Nearly 1.1 million violent crimes were recorded last year - half a million more than in 1998-99.
• Robbery is up 27% under Labour.
• Criminal damage is up past 1 million offences - that's nearly 3000 incidents each day.
• There are over 400 serious knife crimes a week - 22,000 in one year.
• Fatal stabbings up by a third.
• Gun crime has nearly doubled under Labour - a gun crime was committed every hour in England and Wales in 2007-8.
• Injuries from gun crime are up almost four fold."

Mr Grayling, the Shadow Home Secretary, reviews what the Tories already intend to do on family, welfare reform and schools choice in order to mend the broken society.  He then sets out other actions relevant to his new brief:

• Powers to impose curfews on troublesome youngsters for operation outside school hours;
• Stronger licensing laws;
• An end to cautioning for violent and serious crimes.

Read the full speech here.

We are entering a time when law and order are going to rocket up the agenda.  The front page of today's Guardian warns of a 'summer of rage'.  Police intelligence suggests a mood change within public protests and a serious danger of "people who have lost their jobs, homes or savings becoming "footsoldiers" in a wave of potentially violent mass protests."  Chris Grayling's mettle will be tested very soon.

Tim Montgomerie

Senior Tories ponder "generous outreach" to Liberal Democrats in event of Tory win

Senior Tories are debating the extent of outreach that should be made to the Liberal Democrats in the event of the Conservatives becoming the governing party at the next General Election.

Tory strategists are hopeful that the next election will see the Liberal Democrat parliamentary party significantly reduced in size but they also believe that the Conservatives have a long-term interest in ensuring that Britain's third party looks as much to the Conservative Party as to the Labour Party as a future natural coalition partner.

I understand that a group of shadow ministers believe that one of Tony Blair's bigger strategic mistakes was to row back on co-operation with the Liberal Democrats when he won such a large Commons majority in 1997.  These shadow ministers believe that - contrary to Labour's 'under-delivery' to the LibDems - the Conservatives should deliver more in practical co-operation in government than they promise in opposition.

The discussion is not of ministerial positions - although there might be some significant appointments to policy reviews - but of working groups on issues of shared interest.  Action on civil liberties and on green issues are on the table.

Tim Montgomerie

PS Congratulations to Nick Clegg this morning.  His wife has given birth to the couple's third child, a son.

2pm: Peter Hoskin at Coffee House sees merit in the plan: "As for the Tories and their wider strategy, shacking up with the Lib Dems makes a whole load of sense. Not only would it isolate Labour, but it meets calls for bipartisanship-in-government to deal with the economic crisis."

Tuesday, 7.30am: LibDemVoice responds to this post.

How are the centre right think tanks gearing up for the recession?

It's not just the political parties that have had to change policy gear for the recession.  The think tanks are also under pressure to refocus.  The Conservative leadership, in particular, has been demanding more help from them as it seeks to develop its own response to the deepest economic challenges for decades.  Pasted below are the responses of London's five most influential centre right think tanks to questions I posed about their readiness for the recession-struck world we now inhabit.

Tim Montgomerie

Ed Vaizey questions future of ministerial car

This comes from Ed Vaizey MP's blog:

"I am guessing the annual cost today [of a ministerial car] is at least £100,000 - that’s almost £10 million a year for ministers’ cars.  I suspect it is much higher overall - most senior officials have them as well as the heads of the major quangos. It would not surprise me at all to learn that the Government Car Service cost between £50 million and £100 million.

Who needs these cars?  The PM obviously, for security.  I would make a case for the most senior ministers - Chancellor, Defence, Foreign and Home, as you would have to know exactly where they were if a crisis, say another 7/7, hit.  After that, I can’t think why you would need one - an Oyster card, second clas rail ticket and the odd cab should suffice.  The idea that you are transporting secret Government papers is a total conceit, and can only really be carried off by Cabinet Ministers, and perhaps home, foreign, treasury and defence ministers.

So perhaps we should announce a hiring freeze for the Government Car Service, and reduce it in size over the lifetime of the next Parliament."

Well said Ed.  As the axe falls across the public sector it's vital that ministers and politicians take a lead in the necessary austerity.

Tim Montgomerie

I''m grateful for PoliticsHome's indispensable Green Box of breaking political news for this story:

How the Tories can avoid losing in 2015

Yesterday we saw 120,000 largely public sector workers marching through Dublin in protest at the Irish government's cuts in state spending.

How long until our own government faces up to the bankrupt nature of our fiscal position?  How long until we see Dublin-style protests at necessary restraint in British state spending?  120,000 people marched in a nation of four million.  How many will march in sixty million citizens Britain?

In today's News of the World, Fraser Nelson predicts that the Tories will inherit the unrest that will be needed to put right Labour's mess:

"The first to feel the pinch may be Boris Johnson, London Mayor. He’s up for re-election in 2012. “But by then,” a senior Tory told me, “Cameron’s cuts will be in full flow. It’ll be war with unions. “Imagine it – teachers on strike. Nurses protesting in the streets. Litter uncollected. No Tory could be elected then.” This augurs ill for Cameron’s re-election. Especially if tax rises mean the economy double-dips BACK into recession. Cuts are vital – and inevitable. It’s also immoral to keep loading future generations with debt because ministers won’t cut now."

At least four things seem necessary for the Tories to limit the risks of this scenario:

1. Levelling with the people before the election. Telling the British people that spending can continue to rise and that there'll be tax cuts for married couples and savers can hardly be the full truth.  Voters won't like the truth but they're not fools.  As long as the pain is shared across the private, public and (importantly) political sectors they are more likely to swallow the medicine.
2. Pinning the blame on Labour for the mess. That's why the Domesday Book idea is so important; "The Book would be one of the first acts of an incoming Conservative government.  New Cabinet ministers would be ordered to prepare an audit of their portfolios.  Four to six weeks later a Domesday statement of the extent of public borrowing, the weakness of the nation's energy infrastructure, the weakness of family structure and so on would be published.  As well as serving as a statement of challenges it would then be hung around the neck of the Labour Party."
3. Preparing well for government.  Today's news that Lord Turnbull will be helping with preparations is good news indeed.
4. There's going to be no time for learning on the job.  MPs like John Redwood, Michael Howard, Peter Lilley, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Stephen Dorrell should be recalled.

Tim Montgomerie