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Since last month, Con - 2, Lab - 2, LD + 2, Others (UKIP/BNP/SNP primarily) + 2.

Is this the Lindsey effect? And shouldn't the major parties propose rescinding EU 'free movement of labour' legislation forthwith?

Unsurprisingly the 20% lead is vanishing. Being 12% ahead is virtually meaningless anyway as all three parties have the same agenda of handing more power to the EU without bothering to go to the trouble and inconvenience of a democratic vote. Your EU masters would approve.

I see the leader of the EU Parliament was boasting that they make 75% of all laws for EU countries now anyway.

Leading the poll among the three main UK parties is rather like being first in a poll between Ghengis Khan, Atilla the Hun and Ivan the Terrible. All despised, but perhaps some more than others.

er no Wilted Rose. Since last ICM Conservatives are up 2 as are Labour. The Lib Dems are the losers down 4. But don't let the facts get in the way of your assertion.

I am not surprised,i have Conservative friends who say they are going to vote BNP,

My freinds brother was killed by a illegal immigrant stabbing,for his wallet.

I never realised there are believed to be 500K immigrants in UK,just think they have no benefits,they are either working illegal or commiting crime to survive.

It is a shame Cameron seems to have lost his spine.

Others 10%,this is just the start.

Pretty good poll that, majority of 56 according to UK Polling Report. I'd be more than happy if that was the result at the general election.

I'm not sure what Kevin is on though, last time I was looking the Conservatives were promising a vote on future EU treaties that give Europe extra powers. The party has never been so Eurosceptic either. Don't tell me Thatcher was more Eurosceptic, it's just not true.

We have to get our act together,we are not just fighting the Labour party.

The polls are going up and down all the time.

A bit off topic but if the Conservatives win the next election will they scrap the ID cards ? Some asked me a while back on my blog and i did not know.

Although i support the SNP i do hope the Conservatives win the next election, Labour are done for, old, tired and out of ideas.

Omar,

Yes,we will scrap ID Cards,however the £20bn saved will not be added to by scrapping trident,being SNP you won't like that.

£20bn for Id Cards
£20bn for 30yr trident replacement.

I know which one i chose.

The conservatives do indeed intend to repeal the ID Card scheme. As for euro-scepticism I would state the party is not the most euro-sceptic it has ever been but it is most certainly resting on a euro-sceptic position.

I believe it is the best that can be hoped for in a unified political force, at least we're not advocating joining the Euro and opposing the Lisbon Treaty.

These figures when put into "UK Elect" gave me

Con 334
Lab 247
Lib Dem 34
Others 31

Total 646

Cons
Majority 22

A bit like Major's result in 1992, not really enough to run for a full term.

One good thing out of this will be that all those already popping the champagne corks and romanticising about landslide majorities of 150+ will come down to earth and realise that there is much hard work to be done and that it isn't won till it's won. Also I hope not to see any of the silly "How the Tories can avoid losing in 2015" threads for a while. Concentrate on winning the 2010 Election instead.

Omar,

Yes,we will scrap ID Cards,however the £20bn saved will not be added to by scrapping trident,being SNP you won't like that.

£20bn for Id Cards
£20bn for 30yr trident replacement.

I know which one i chose.
.....................

Thanks for your comment Richard, Well at least Trident is meant to offer us security, with ID cards its just a breach of our liberties.

Thanks Joseph S. Yip it is a complete waste of money..

Very disappointing.

A little like 30 % of Ugandan's wanting Idi Amin in 1979.

Unsurprisingly the 20% lead is vanishing.

Actually, the last ICM lead was 12%. Don't compare pollsters as they ask different questions and have different research methods - compare polls made by each polling group.

This poll just takes the wind out of the Lib Dems' sails - it doesn't do anything to change the balance between the Tories and Labour.

Malcolm, these are the changes reported by the Guardian since the last Guardian/ICM poll, which has a specific methodology and is different from the other ICM poll (for the Sunday Telegraph, I believe). You can't compare the two directly, although from the same company, just as you can't compare ICM to Mori etc...

Scrap Trident as well and replace with a Modified 'Storm Shadow' Curse missile, with will cost a lot less. We would then have a useable deterrent that could be launched from aircraft or with boosters Ship or land. But most important it will be under our control and no one else’s.

Off topic I know but I can't resist.
Trident is under our control, it is fired from the submarine. No fancy codes or machines, thats just Hollywood, just the men in the submarine, a chain of command and a hand written letter!

A news story in a Irish Paper i saw,their is now a Majority who will vote yes to the Lisbon Treaty.

If we keep on faffing about,we don't like Lisbon,but if its passed we will just accept it.

The economy is terrible,we expect 3m unemployed,we let 2k immigrants a day into UK,while every 76 sec a job is lost,but thats OK!

I have a horrible feeling Cameron is beginning to look to weak,we on here for the most part are convinced others are not.

12% lead with what is happening is terrible,what if the economy does improve even slightly by summer,the BBC,is going to be all over it,Brown is brilliant the VAT cut worked,we are playing a dangerous game,i hate to say this,WE ARE DITHERING.

Scrap Trident as well and replace with a Modified 'Storm Shadow' Curse missile, with will cost a lot less.

Except that the "modified" (how will it be modified) Storm Shadow will have a much smaller range and not have the range to hit any target around the world. It will also have to be launched from a ship or plane that will be vulnerable to attack.

The point of the naval missile is that it is fired from a submarine that can remain hidden and at the same time hit anywhere that attacks the UK. Otherwise why do you think we, the Americans, the French, the Chinese and the Russians have nuclear ballistic submarines?

Raj @ 21:12 - you are quite right! This is pretty much the same as the last ICM Poll. I think some of us got rather over-excited with the 20 point lead of YouGov but frankly it didn't really ring true. This lead is fine and we are on the right track though as Steve Foley says we need to do a lot more hard work and perhaps articles such as the 2015 Scenario are distinctly unhelpful!

Absolutely right, we have a decent number of Nukes enough to ruin any nation that might try to destroy us. There is no reason why our current stockpile should not be reconditioned. I know that some parts have a limited shelf life but we can certainly rule out firing duds. Its not like the money wasted on trident would really make us safer.
We should of course be preparing for these arms to be completely eliminated no other stance is moral. However, we are not in any rush, or need we rush, to lay down our arms. It looks like it will be a very long process
As for this pole if we have lost 2% to the LibDems it can only be put down yet again to the mixed messages coming from the Top. The party at it grass roots is clearly ahead of the leadership in both its honesty and its Will to win.

Ross - UK Polling Report is listing this poll as following the last ICM Poll on 5th Feb (which was for Telegraph) not the last ICM Guardian poll (from a month ago) and on that basis the Lib Dems are down 4 %, Con and Lab both up 2%.

I think wilted rose is mistaken about the methodologies ICM use for the different papers - any differences would be so minor as to make very little difference.

Either way ICM shows that over the last 18 days we have consolidated in the early 40s and Labour are hovering about 30 and lib dems back down at 18. Given that this is an equivalent margin to the 1997 result but in reverse I shouldnt be too concerned at this stage.

Chris C.

>>I'm not sure what Kevin is on though, last time I was looking the Conservatives were promising a vote on future EU treaties that give Europe extra powers.<<

Cameron has discussed the possibility of having a poll on the Lisbon Treaty / Constitution if it has not been ratified. It probably will have been by the time we have an election so that's him off the hook. The Irish Government is considering bringing their vote forward as the polls are indicating taht a 'yes' vote is likely at present. Typical EU stifling of true democracy aided and abetted by the Irish Government who are ignoring the original vote.

Cameron could kill the Lisbon Treaty dead if he promised a referendum on it regardless of the state of ratification. He chooses not to do this thereby depriving the electorate of this country any chance of having their say on the handing over of further power to the EU.

All the parties know that a referendum would probably produce a 'no' vote here. There is a cross part conspiracy to stifle democracy. As I said earlier, your EU masters would approve.

Sally, 20% lead was Ipsos Mori and that is based on only those who are 100% certain to vote.

The more likely result based on those saying 70% or above in Mori was a 12% lead with much same figures as this. YouGov also a 12% lead (higher shares for Cons & Labour, lower for Lib Dems).

I'm sticking with my prediction of a 60-70 Tory majority.

Unbelievable that 30% would vote for this terrible regime!

You Tories do get yourself in a pickle over these polls. One is a rogue when you are a little in front, the other is fantastic when 20 points ahead, another is OK when you are 12.

The polls average out as the Tories being around 8 points ahead I am afraid to say. Do not think it is a sure bet that you have the next election just yet. And if you do with a majority of around 22-40 I guarantee you will lose the one after as any radical proposals will not make their way through Parliament.


josh@23:15

'The polls average out as the Tories being around 8 points ahead I am afraid to say.'

No, they average out at 14.8 points ahead I am not afraid to say.

The polls average out as the Tories being around 8 points ahead I am afraid to say.

Josh, you clearly don't understand the concept of the Conservative Home Poll of Polls.

if we are showing an average 14.8% lead that is probably an 11% lead at an election(if you assume the government will close on election day) the last few elections i think we have closed the lead as the election has approched i don't know if it works the other way though?

"Scrap Trident"

Absolutely agree with you on this issue, we need to do some serious thinking about finding a more suitable and cheaper alternative.
Sadly, we can no longer afford this option. And that is down to this incompetent government.

Please start announcing policy

Even if it is just the issues that gorgon can't steal - ID cards, trident, NHS database (KISS)

I realise that the BNP probably hurts labour more than the conservatives (they are both socialist parties just international vs national), but you're giving vast swathes of the country no choice over europe (apart from UKIP / BNP).

Cameron has to start fighting gorgon, not just wait for gorgon to lose. PLEASE START FIGHTING, or watch the votes bleed to UKIP & BNP

"Absolutely agree with you on this issue, we need to do some serious thinking about finding a more suitable and cheaper alternative.
Sadly, we can no longer afford this option. And that is down to this incompetent government."

It costs a pittance. There are plenty of other things to cut from the defence budget. In fact it would not be as difficult as some would have us believe to cut the navy's budget and double the size of the fleet.

Poll wise what is really significant, perhaps the only thing that is, is the consistent Conservative lead. Shame that it is because the voters are so sick of Labour rather than because they are enthusiastic for a Conservative government, but it's better than being behind.

I used to vote Tory.

I hate Labour and the LibDems.

Like millions of other people I now feel that the Tories are an active part of the old Lib-Lab-Con pro EU party.

Cameron's Red Tories do not represent me and my family.

David Cameron and the Tories won't be getting my vote.

Paul@0019
"Please start announcing policy...Even if it is just the issues that gorgon can't steal - ID cards, trident, NHS database (KISS)"

Erm, we have policies announced on all of those issues.

"Shame that it is because the voters are so sick of Labour rather than because they are enthusiastic for a Conservative government, but it's better than being behind..."

I love how many people keep on about this as if it is some terrible achilles heel.

This is the norm at elections. It is very rare for a wave of positivity to sweep an opposition into power (1997 may be one of the few examples, and even then I'm not so sure). Oppositions generally set their stall out as NOT being the governing party, and they win accordingly when the governing party loses the confidence of the people.

If anyone thinks that the Conservatives in 1979 were voted in because they were loved, rather than because Labour were loathed, they don't know their history.

We went on to govern for 18 years.

Message to fascists: this is a Conservative website, slither back to whatever stone you crawled out from.

Richard at 21.39:

"The economy is terrible,we expect 3m unemployed.."

Don't be too pessimistic, because you are using Labour's stats, not the real ones. There are already over 5 million people who are not working. Frank Field last week in the Times said there were 5.3 million.

Gordon Brown has got away with halving the bad figures, as he is still doing with government debt. The trouble is that some people still believe him. We must rebut them whenever we can. Also we have to prove to people that Gordon Brown has played a major part in bringing us to this position, so why trust him to get us out of it?

When is this totally inaccurate graphic going to be changed. We are 2 DOWN.

The possibility of a "sneak" attack on the UK taking out the deterent force is gone for the time being. Reducing the time on patrol of the Trident submarines will allow their life to be extended pushing the need for a replacement well into the future. It is even possible that by then the nuclear armed states might fufil our obligations under the NPT! Another target to scrap is the CVF project with its Lightning II aircraft. This is simply a recipe for getting the UK into more neo-con adventures. It should have gone along with Tony Blair.

@ "Unbelievable that 30% would vote for this terrible regime!"

============================================

No it's not! There will always be a hard core of people who will vote for Labour and for that matter in a bad years such as 1997 or 2001 for the Conservatives and a lesser core for the Lib Dems. I'd say that 30% is about right and is not that difficult to understand when one considers the various "Client Groups" that Labour, and especially NEW Labour have created over the years and who benefit from their being the Government.

"Oldrightie" you can't win them all and with that 30% Labour hard core don't even try! Leave them to vote Labour as they most surely will do if they bother to vote at all. Concentrate your resources on the Floating Voters who (especially in the Marginals) actually decide the outcome of an election. The person who used to vote Tory but is hesitant about Cameron as Leader, the disillusioned Lib-Dem who is thinking of voting Conservative, the worker who has lost his job in the present Economic Meltdown and who used to vote Labour but wants a change.

Opinion polls are very unreliable, 2/3 say Gordon Brown is a liability to Labour, change him for another leader and briefly 2/3 would say Labour was better off and 42% would say they would vote Labour, people would say that the Conservative Party was doomed, a month later and 4/5 would be saying that the new leader was a disaster and only 24% would be saying they would vote Labour. In a General Election campaign past opinion poll figures frequently bare little relation to the final result.

Surely any real lead in a poll for the Guardian is a good thing? Any soviet propaganda newspaper saying that the enemy are winning has to be pretty bad news for our Marxist dictatorship.

"Surely any real lead in a poll for the Guardian is a good thing? Any soviet propaganda newspaper saying that the enemy are winning has to be pretty bad news for our Marxist dictatorship."

I agree with you, Tristan. This poll is good news but not such headily unreal news that we can afford to sit back on our laurels. There is plenty of work still to be done.

Funnily enough Jack Stone and the usual Labour trolls have stopped commenting on poll threads. I wonder why?

If the next Conservative Government doesn't begin to get to grips with the EU problem we are heading for serious trouble. Confidence in the political process, already low, will plummet. In parallel support for the BNP will rise.

Like earlier opinion polls, the YouGov one for TAP/Global Vision in January showed that the majority of people in Britain do not support the current relationship with the EU. The figures indicated that 64% wanted radical change, a further 16% supported complete withdrawal with just 22% supporting membership on the current terms. Worrying 45% of the public felt none of the main parties represented their views with the figure for Conservative supporters even lower at 35%.

Those of us of a eurosceptic persuasion know that we cannot count on either Labour or the LibDems to do us any favours. After all, both of those parties broke manifesto promises to hold a referendum on Lisbon and colluded in a way that was practically dishonest to bully it through Parliament. If my memory is correct, William Hague committed the Conservatives to hold the referendum if Lisbon is not in force when they come to power and said that, if it is in force, they will not let the matter rest. If they too renege on their promise there will be a lot of disillusioned – and angry – people out here.

Concern about Lisbon is not alleviated in any way by the comments of the “reporting judge” at a hearing of the German Constitutional Court a couple of weeks ago. Apparently, he said: “One has to ask soberly: What competencies are left for the Bundestag in the end? He also asked: “whether it would not be more honest to just proclaim a European federal state”.

To prevent Labour throwing accusations of a “Tory split on Europe” around, the party should include two commitments in its manifesto for the EU elections this summer. The first should be to hold a referendum asking the people whether or not they want further integration, the second to commission a proper – and independent – cost/benefit analysis of EU membership like that undertaken by the Swiss government. The referendum commitment would enable the Conservatives to say they are prepared to listen to the people. And, as the Swiss investigation found the cost of EU membership would be six times their current bilateral trading arrangements, the cost/benefit analysis would attract the sceptic vote.

Can someone give me % split for SNP, Plaid, UKIP, BNP and if possible the Ulster Parties if that data is available? I will put these into "UK Elect" and hopefully obtain a more accurate projection. Currently the 10% remainder is an amorphous "Others" but the split of these is of great significance, especially the SNP vis a vis Labour in Scotland and the UKIP V Conservative effect in England.

"When is this totally inaccurate graphic going to be changed. We are 2 DOWN."

We aren't - you're comparing this poll with the last ICM poll for the Guardian. From the last ICM poll, we are 2 points up.

Taking the individual poll variances is misleading. The poll of polls is circa Con >40%, Labour 30% & LibDem <20% give or take.

Now given that:

1. Brown has successfully managed to avoid responsibility for his economic disaster (assisted by the News dominating pro-Labour BBC)

2. Tribal Labour voters

3. The number of people on the 'pay roll' (Public Sector bureaucrats, consultants & other benefit claimants)

4. Immigrants grateful for Mr Brown's 'Open Door' policy

My conclusion is that these figures are as good as could be expected.

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