Are fringe parties the main beneficiaries of Labour's collapse?

New Populus poll for The Times confirms the sharp decline in Labour support:

Worryingly the poll also finds an increase in support for fringe parties:

"The Scottish Nationalists, the Greens, the UK Independence Party and the British National Party, have also gained 3 points to 12 per cent."

Something to keep an eye on.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Sally Roberts]

I think the rise in support for fringe parties may at least in part be down to the BNP's support for the "British Jobs for British Workers" wildcat strikes - in fact the exploitation of the issues for their own purposes. I suspect we will find that many Labour voters have decided to go BNP.

[David]

I would hardly say the SNP is a fringe party.

[ashley rochdale]

I wonder if our standing still - going backwards - has anything to do with Kens return and the fact - that like Lab we are now seen very much as a pro Europe party? - hence the rise in the fringe - I repeat if we make a solid commitment to come out of Europe - we would win hands down - Get Real

[Alan S]

This poll seems to confirm Saturday's LD progress.

If the BNP/UKIP are gaining that's bad news for our European prospects.

[Paul Swaddle]

When out canvasing on Saturday in Reading we came across a small number of Labour to BNP switchers, not a statistically significant sample but as people say something worth monitoring.

[Praguetory]

It's our fault. This isn't only about the recession. Our elected reps in Parliament are refusing to condemn/go after Labour sleaze or communicating effectively about our commitment to clean up politics. The public has noticed and understandably concluded that we're just as bad as them.

[comstock]

You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!

[DCMX]

You can comstock. It's all part of an anti-establishment mood. A mood Cameron cannot capture.

[RichardJ]

"You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!"

I could. I've read their Manifesto for a Sustainable Society. It would bring about economic ruin, inflation and poverty.

[Andrew Woodman]

In my patch there is a lot of Labour to BNP switching. Lots of the Labour core waking up and asking what have Labour ever done for them.

[David_at_Home]

“I would hardly say the SNP is a fringe party.”

In the 2005 GE, UKIP received more votes throughout the UK as a whole than did the SNP.

"You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!"

Why not? Both are bossy, socialist and want to take us back to a romanticised view of a past that never was.

[Jack Stone]

IF people are switching to the BNP what would you suggest the party do about it adopt BNP policies. The way many on this site defend racism it would surprise me if many did want that.

[Onemarcus]

If Labour voters are switching to the BNP it should be seen as a failure of our party to attract the working class vote. All this talk about fixing the broken society has not really worked. Someone should have had a lok at what their core issues are, jobs housing immigration are issue I think hit a cord. Our policies on these are............racking my brain to think. People vote BNP not only because they think Labour isn't representing them but because the Lib Dems and Conservatives are not representing them either. Politics has become too much about representing middle England at the expense of everyone else.

[T . England]

I would never vote for any party but Tory at a main election but I am seriously considering voting UKIP at the local elections just to pee off Tories who I feel don’t support me as a British person!
I, after being a life long Tory supporter feels this next major election could be the last time I vote for the Tories & that is because I don’t believe they will do any better than Labour at sticking up for us Brits!

But, you never know! I can live in hope.

[Ken Stevens]

"Are fringe parties the main beneficiaries of Labour's collapse?"

I do hope so, and that the Tories will similarly experience such loss of support.

I first subscribed to ConHome a couple of years ago with the hope that it's influence would steer the party along a more distinctive path.

Sadly that hasn't turned out to be the case. The major aspect of our loss of sovereignty to the EU and the insulting treatment of England within the Union remains is of equal inconsequence to the three main parties. All three dip into a similar pot pourri of other policies, according to whatever is the flavour of the month and is adjudged to gain the best political advantage. No core principles are of course allowed to get inconveniently in the way.

Thus it really doesn't matter which of the three gains power. Same trough; undifferentiated snouts.

My vote will in future go to any but the ConLabLibdem Party. Voting UKIP, BNP, teddy bear, etc is the only means by which an ordinary voter stands a chance of making major parties take notice.

It is nearing time for renewal of my annual subscription to ConHome. Regretfully, I see little point in doing so.

Therefore goodbye.

[Tony Makara]

No Socialist or Social Democrat would ever vote for the BNP. These gains are coming from floating voters and not the bedrock Labour support. That said, many traditional Labour voters that I know have talked about how the party needs a period in opposition to find its raison d'etre again. The feeling being that a Conservative government would concentrate minds and provide the rationale for a newly formed Labour perspective.

[all lower case]

we are on 42pc. the rise of the fringe is a labour problem not a tory problem

[Malcolm Dunn]

I suspect the British Jobs For British Workers fiasco was probably significant. The Conservative party had very little to say about it, the Lib Dems nothing and Labour were characteristically pathetic. Into that vacuum strides the BNP. However let's not overdo it 12% between the lot of them is not huge. But we should remain vigilant.

[David]

In the 2005 GE, UKIP received more votes throughout the UK as a whole than did the SNP.

How many MP's did the UKIP have elected?

[will.b]

It is again a move away from the main two parties - the average voter is turning away from the do nothing party/Brown's recession debate. People are looking for leadership not Punch & Judy.

We should be finding some way to "help" the government.( We need to help them into opposition. )

[Tim Montgomerie]

We'll miss you Ken. Thank you for your many interesting contributions.

[eugene]

I am told by a friend that the BNP were canvasing in Swanley (Sevenoaks?) yesterday.

Surprised fringe parties are on an election footing so soon- we need to watch that one.

[Conspiracy]

I agree - the Greens are a bunch of facists who want to control everyones lives with their mad ideas about climate change and diverstity, whereas the BNP would just like the British to be able to govern themselves and live in Britain not a series of regions of the EUSSR

[Peter Buss]

I really cannot agree that Ken is to blame for our flatlining in the polls - if indeed thats what it is. A poll last week showed that nearly 60% of voters when asked had Ken as their No.1 preference for Chancellor.

The fact that we are 40% and above shows that we have already taken votes from Labour and this is an impressive poll bearing in mind the strength of the Lib/Dems. People talk about Maggie's leads in the run up to 79 but frankly I think its ludicrous to compare that with today. Then the Libs were a discedited bunch hanging on the coat tails of a discredited Govt and also had a deposed Leader who had been charged with a vey serious crime. The Lib/Dems have since 1997 been a formidable 3rd Party and I guess pretty much here to stay making our task of getting a decent majority very much more difficult.

Thank goodness then that we have someone with the communication skills and the political nous who knows that to conquer we must win the centre ground. Before Cameron, I believe the events of the past 5 months would have had us vying for 3rd place with the Lib/Dems as all the discontented Labour supporters would have switched to them and not given us the time of day.Camerons' very considerable achievment has been to change all of that and frankly its something we now tend to take for granted and not give him anywhere enough credit for.

[YMT]

There is a case to say that the recession is stirring up peoples political passions and this has led some to believe that the main parties are too generic and main stream, trying to be all things to all people, when what's needed is a large shift in the direction and leadership to get the country back on track, since non of the main parties offer this and are firmly sticking to the centre ground this would lead to support for parties that are more right/left/hard-line etc on the issues they think are most important. Be it priority-green, national independence, anti-eu, anti-immigration et al

[Scott Carlton]

The only way really of putting down fringe parties such as UKIP or the BNP in my opinion is to start adopting protectionist policies on economic matters. Whilst I appreciate and understand the concept of free markets, but what you need to ask yourself is, how free are free markets?! We have recently as a country sided trade agreements with China, who's main industries are state owned or controlled. I believe when times are good, yes it is important to open the country up for business and immigration etc but when times are bad we need to start looking after our own and the exisiting people we have in the country. Without a financial viable country how can we trade freely with other country's, in short we can't. A more pragmatic approach to economics is the only way we are going to get out this mess.

[Adam-]

Anecdotal contact with "traditional Labour voters" suggest that the main beneficiaries will be the sofa, Coronation Street, and the makers of PG Tips.

[John Moss]

Ken is very wrong in his assertion that voting for "none of the above" - or BNP/Green/Teddy Bear/UKIP will make any of the two major parties and the other minor one - name escapes me - take any notice.

All it will do is perpetuate the status quo.

Do you think Cameron will be bolder with a large majority, or a smaller one?

Do you think a Conservative upsurge in June against a UKIP collapse - I have money on them winning no seats - will strengthen or weaken the hand of the only serious UK party with a sceptic stance.

Take your bat home if you wish, but the cold, hard truth is a vote for anybody, anybody, other than the Conservatives at the next elections, EU or UK, is a vote for a stronger EU and a Labour Government.

[Andrew Woodman]

'No Socialist or Social Democrat would ever vote for the BNP. These gains are coming from floating voters and not the bedrock Labour support'

Come canvassing in some of the East Mids seats Tony. You will find that statement is very flawed.

[Peter Buss]

One point I forgot to mention is the SNP vote. If this poll is showing that they are again on the rise in Scotland then that is grim news indeed for Labour as their very heartland will be under serious assault. Not seen any poll figures for Scotland lately - are you able to help on this Tim please?

[The Bishop Swine]

"Surprised fringe parties are on an election footing so soon- we need to watch that one."

Sadly the BNP is no longer a small fringe party. Of course some of the blame can be laid at the feet of the politicians who have vilified them, which is almost always a counterproductive strategy. I do believe that last weeks strikes worked against us but there are principles that we really cannot throw away for populist gains. Wildcat strikes, indeed all strikes, are bad for Britain. Unless the people I talk to are all fibbing Ken Clarke return to the top table is seen as a positive development by almost everyone, except UKIP.

[Richard]

My fellow blues will you cheer up!

I really couldn't give a toss who is taking votes off Labour,we are in the 40's,and they are in the 20's,that translates into a near 100 MAJ,

I don't see much to moan about,HAPPY DAYS!.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

I really can't see what the fuss is all about. A 14% lead would give us 94 seat majority in the House, which is more than the Tories had from 1979 to 1983.

Who cares if some nutjobs vote BNP or UKIP?

[Hawkeye]

They've noticed the poll over at LabourHome and the internal bickering is starting. Anyone who does not back "The Party" is being labelled a fascist.

Now the real question - how long will Gordon last? Will they go under 25% and stay there?

[Raj]

Who cares if some nutjobs vote BNP or UKIP?

To be honest, as much as I don't want to see either party gain, I think those votes will go in currently safe Labour seats that the Tories have little chance of winning anyway.

[Richard]

If you wonder why the Labour vote has fallen:

The Labour Party are now admitting defeat on painting DC as a Toff,who dosn't care about the working people.

Sarkozy joined the Germans & the IMF,rubbishig Brown's economic record,and VAT cut.

I was only a baby last time Labour were in power,but i guess it was the same stench of death,coming from the Labour ranks then.

Obama chooses to see Blair first,instead of Brown,of course he is used to coming 2nd to Blair.

I recently asked a good friend who is a Die-Hard Labour voter'IS THIS WHY YOU GOT RID OF BLAIR,THIS?'

If you take notice of what the Labour Voters are saying on their own blogs,this is beginning to come up.

[Yorkshireman, Yorkshire]

There is a large movement of Labour voters to the BNP here in Yorkshire. There will be a big shock in the June elections.

I'm a Conservative but come June I'll be voting UKIP. In the last week, Nigel Farage is the only leader to address the core issue - the EU in its current form is a post democratic institution. Totally unacceptable.

[Umbrella man]

Buckinghamshire Tory is right.

[Norm Brainer]

as I was blogging yesterday I think that we've gone through the stage where people have been angry at the government and turn to the conservatives, often tactically just to remove labour- now they are resigned to thinking that we're stuck with labour for the forseable future and that the Conservatives probably can't/won't be doing anything to make things better as they are either being apathetic to labours attack on Britain, or are just too late.
... so people pick their single issue parties as they fit better on that one policy, or to send a message or just because they are bored and know it makes no difference whatever they say.

[Marian]

Who cares if some nutjobs vote BNP or UKIP?

Well maybe UKIP, but if what I am told about BNP by the political establishment is true, that's altogether a different matter. One group are conservatives for the most part, the other? BNP is no longer just a few Jew baiters, its becoming a national party.

[another richard]

"You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!"

Actually you can - fascists tend to be very environmentally keen and the more extreme Greens hate all human beings (unlike the BNP who only hate some).

[Yet Another Anon]

No Socialist or Social Democrat would ever vote for the BNP.
The mother of someone I knew one time voted National Front and another time voted SDP. She was of quite a strongly Socialist disposition apparently, her father was a full blooded Romany and she knew the National Front's policies on people they saw as not being one of them, but she apparently felt that it was important to encourage political diversity to keep the 2 main political parties on their toes. People vote for all kinds of wierd reasons, in my opinion universal franchise is a bad idea.

[Raj]

Nigel Farage is the only leader to address the core issue - the EU in its current form is a post democratic institution.

Then why does he have his snout in the EU trough? He knows the EU will never go away and that UKIP will never win the argument. So he's milking people's fear and annoyance regarding it to his own advantage.

He's the biggest hypocrite out there right now.

[Nutjob]

"Take your bat home if you wish, but the cold, hard truth is a vote for anybody, anybody, other than the Conservatives at the next elections, EU or UK, is a vote for a stronger EU and a Labour Government"

Headbang if you will - this UKIP voter's not for turning.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

We drew this "third party" inference the other day from the ICM and Yougov polls.

Lib Dems bash the bankers and pick up from Labour and wet Tories.

"British Jobs for British workers"- Labour C2/DE voters switch to BNP, along with Tory C1/C2s who might go UKIP or abstain.

This is more of a problem for Labour, as Tory-inclined voters are more inclined to vote Tory at the General, especially if there's the prospect of effecting a change in government.

[Simon Denis]

UKIP is not to be confused with the BNP. Indeed, it is shameful to conflate those whose sole wish is to preserve democracy and independence with a party of hysterical thugs. And of course Labour voters are switching to the BNP; Brown et al are seriously worried about it. Hence all that "British jobs" nonsense. The old fight between hard nationalism and the left for the soul of the masses is making a brief and inglorious comeback. As for D. Cameron esquire - he's playing a diplomat's game, sidling into power by wooing the disenchanted centre. He will, therefore, have to govern according to the Macmillan book of ruses, not the Maggie recipe for decisive recovery. He may be assisted in this low but effective dodge by the disintegration of Blair's coalition. The workers will blunder into the arms of the BNP; the high minded Guardianistas will vote Green and the rump of the Labour party will find itself in mutually recriminating turmoil. We on the various branches of the right (nationalist, religious and economic) are so determined to punish Labour that - fairly certainly - Cameron will have our backing - this despite the offensive prattle against grammar schools and his lily livered approach to government expenditure. The same resolution to keep the reds out - even if it means a long period of skyblue pink - will probably hold Cameron up for a couple of terms. Tragically, the country will continue to sink. At best, we the bourgeoisie will preserve some elements of our wealth and freedom - until the next generation of Labour liars bamboozles us in sufficient numbers. But is this good enough? Do we really think "Supercomps" will boost literacy or churn out legions of scientists? Can the economy possibly grow under the multiple burdens of taxation and debt? Will queues, disease and the starvation of the elderly really retreat from our hospitals under the clapped out Stalinist health service? No. We all know that the answer is no. We will support Mr C but with little in the way of conviction or vim.

[pp]

Power reqires two things:-
Maximising the Tory vote and
Minimising the Labour vote.

The tories have pretty much maximised their vote - now there are traditional labour supporters that would never vote Tory - so as long as they are voting something other than Labour that is all to the good.

Brown is an international laughing stock - people know that supporting him makes them look stupid. And now the sleeze hits, I really want to see the home secretary taken to pieces over her expenses.

If the tory front bench don't attack Smith, the implication will be that they are in also in glass houses...

Labour see sleaze as a tool to attack opponents, they are actually unprincipled and keep quiet about their own infractions.

Tory supporters clearly hate *all* sleaze, the front bench must show that they are 100% on board with us...

[Onemarcus]

In the east end of London and Essex Labour voters are voting BNP, in Blackburn they have and they may well do elsewhere. What world are you living in Tony M, where do you think they gor their votes from. One issue is prompting this and it begins with I, lets face it some on here can't even bring themselves to mention the word let alone debate it or want to do anything about it. As long as we get elected its all important what we are going to do when we get in and how we are going to solve the countries ills is of no consequence to them.

[Steve Foley]

"You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!"

Oh yes you can and I do!

The BNP is Right Wing Dirigist and the Green-Red Party is Left Wing Dirigist.

[Hugh Oxford]

BNP is no longer just a few Jew baiters, its becoming a national party.

The truth is the BNP don't have to do much these days, just keep reporting the news, and then reporting the inaction of the major parties.

I've written to my Labour MP and the Conservative party about the key issues that face British society - Islamisation in particular - and all I get back is denial and avoidance and bluster and flatus.

I've tried engaging with mainstream politicians like a good boy, like a good non-bigot, like an upstanding non-racist, like a tolerant democrat. I've got a feeling lots of other people throughout Europe, told that they should not vote for horrible dirty vile nationalist parties like the BNP have done so too.

At the moment, the BNP may be dreadful in most respects, but they have the guts to confront some of the very real threats our civilisation faces, threats that have manifested themselves in quite disturbing ways, and look set to get worse unless urgent action is taken. Sadly, their courage and candour on this single, vital issue quite eclipses their inadequacy on the rest.

Every day comes news of another disturbing development in the failure of multicultural Britain, and I predict that this will escalate in the months coming up to the next election.

Oh, and I'm as far from disillusioned white working class as it's possible to be.

[Hugh Oxford]

One more thing.

The Brits love an underdog. They side with them. Prolly something deep down in our Christian psyche.

Keep whipping the BNP. Keep marginalising them. Let the bishops bash them. Let the unions undermine them. Let the cops chop them. Keep drawing attention to the BNP through the process of vilification, and what you might just do is elicit sympathy and a sense of injustice.

[Philip]

Like others here, I wonder if the British jobs for British workers issue has increased support for minor parties. But this wouldn't explain the Lib Dems creeping up a point or two? However that we are over 40% isn’t too bad – but we must aim for a majority of at least 200!

When I looked through the 2005 General Election results, I got the impression we could have failed to win about 30 seats due to UKIP. So it seems a more robust policy on the EU (perhaps even promising to leave, or at least promising to negotiate to take back substantial powers, threatening to leave if no progress in made by a deadline) would win some votes.

But although we would be more EU-sceptic than Lab (and therefore voting for UKIP should be discouraged as it could help keep the more EU-phile Labour in), I wonder if our EU policy is sufficiently timid for Ken Clarke to be able to return to the front bench.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I watched some of The Big Question programme on BBC1 yesterday morning, and there was a representative of the BNP on the panel, for one of the sections.

I can quite see how someone like him (I can't remember his name) would appeal to disgruntled Labour voters - particularly men. He was neat and tidy, in a light grey suit, well groomed with a short back and sides, and pleasant manner. He didn't have a strident 'working class' accent or the ubiquitous 'estuarine' accent, that some Labour MP's affect, but his accent wasn't perceived english either. I thought it was very smart 'marketting'!, geared to appeal to the broadest number of people!

And it wasn't just looks either, he was quite persuasive in the way he talked, he wasn't like the Hammas representative who was on some weeks ago, and came across fairly thug-like!

Yes I would think that in the 'Labour heartlands' that this government has diligently sprinkled so much lottery money around - apparently, THEY are going to have quite a problem.

As a government Labour is now coming across as quite grubby - think Jakwi Smith, for a start, but at the same time ineffectual, think Brown on the news, posturing with his hands which demonstrate his uselessness.

I think for this group of people, for them to think of voting Conservative, is too big a jump - at the moment! If/when there has been a Conservative government, and if it manages to be really innovative, NEW, and therefore effective, THEN we would 'have' them as well!

Some people keep complaining - on this website - and on and on, that we are not making enough impact etc: because we don't have the policies. Actually THEY don't seem to remember the times that this load of shysters - and the one at the top, have pinched all the policies that have been innovative - and of course watered them down before introducing them as their own. Please remember we have a media if not actually hostile like the BBC, is at least quite frivolous in its attitude to politicians - and I use that word on purpose!

Sometimes David Cameron must feel it is like swimming against the Severn Bore!!!!

Ken Stevens @ 20.51 Well you will be able to console yourself that you have perpetuated the reign of this mendacious lot, as all the other people who vote for all little independent wallies, that this load of shysters is sure to encourage, if we keep up in the 40's+.

[grumpy old man]

The BNP are socialists - national socialists. They are producing policies that appeal to the working class voters that NewLab, a progressive liberal grouping, abandoned. In many parts of the country, espec. Inner London, the SWP has reversed into the Green Party. They are beginning to woo the same electorate as the BNP. With the exception of the UKIP, fringe parties are chipping away at the NewLab hegenomy - a condition to be encouraged by taking no public notice of it at all. The ScotNats cannot be properly described as a fringe party. They are almost certain to be completely in charge of Scotland after the next GE and the Tory Govt. will have to deal with them. Its about time we treated them with respect.

[Philip]

I could add that any gain for extremist parties such as the BNP or Greens is obviously unwelcome. As for the latter, perhaps we need to continue to make clear we have sound and reasonable environmental policies such as opposing the 3rd runway and modernisation and electrification of our railways.

[Philip]

Sorry jsut to be clearer, I meant "support" electrification and modernisation of our railways...

[Patsy Sergeant]

Hugh Oxford has expressed himself fairly bluntly on other threads, but I think his comment @ 22.42 above could be quite prescient! After all Andrew Lilico's thread yesterday could be illustrating just such an example, of the pressure occurring in some areas of society, which do accord with the majority beliefs in this country, and which politicians, particularly in this government seem terrified of 'facing up to'. They will have to eventually!

[Patsy Sergeant]

That sentence of mine above should read - After all Andrew Lilico's thread yesterday could be illutrating just such an example, of the pressure occurring in some areas of society, which DO NOT accord with the majority beliefs in this country,....

[Steve Foley]

"..but we must aim for a majority of at least 200!."

==========================================

Get real! Even Margaret Thatcher never achieved this in the post Falklands "Union Jack" Election of 1983 against a doddery old fool leading the Labour Party. It is hubris like this that attracts nemesis , remember Kinnock at the "Sheffield Wednesday" Rally in 1992! Be satisfied with between 50 to 65 as a majority for a first term. Churchill in his victory in 1951 had less, as did Heath in 1970 and Thatcher in her first term 1979 to 1983.

Philip there is already a Green Party and the Tories should not be copying but opposing them.

[AJJM]

"You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!"

Why not? Both left wing fascist parties!

[Dave McEwan Hill]

The latest Scottish poll puts SNP on 38% to Labour's 32% but things are complicated in Scotland due to the two different elections (Scottish parliament/Westminster) and the fact that the Scottish Parliament now dominates the political agenda in Scotland most of the time. Polls on specifically Westminster voting intentions put SNP in a less strong position.
There's a lot of hard to please people posting here. With a 14% poll lead and the fact that Labour on the way down always underperforms you're looking at a Tory overall majority of close to 100 on these figures. UKIP may take some Tory support but I doiubt if it will be significant in an election in which huge numbers of people's first priority will be to get rid of Labour. The BNP may well take a huge vote from a heartily disliked Labour. As a political anorak I have to say that the Tory Party doing nothing and offering no hostages to fortune at this point is exactly the right tactic.

The political scene in Scotland is entirely different now except that Labour is experiencing a steady long term decline but the major issues here are not the issues in the rest of UK (except for the economy and the Scots understand that the SNP Government has no responsibilty for the crisis and no powers to do anything about it).
There must be serious ambivalence in Tory circles about the situation in Scotland. The SNP eating into Labour support and knocking out Labour MPS is good news in one sense but it will also take Scotland a good number of steps closer to independence.

[Tony Makara]

"The BNP are socialists - national socialists"

Really, this is utter nonsense. The BNP isn't National Socialist or Fascist. The two encompass a world-view and are political movements with an international appeal, quite different from the insular politics of the BNP. Mr Griffin must raise a wry smile when he sees the ignorance afforded to the nature of his party. To describe the BNP as National Socialist is comical.

[John Broughton]

What is truly interesting has not really been commented on. If memory serves Labour's current majority was won on about 25% of the electorate. 25% of the electorate could not ever be described as a mandate; nonetheless Labour has inflicted all its dire policies on us.

I see that the Libdemented now have a real opportunity to shove Labour into third place provided Clegg has the courage to go for broke and keep his best assets to the front - Cable and Campbell (where has he gone?). Labour in third place woud be very interesting.

Back to the overall % of the electorate. Our target should not be simply a majority in the Commons but a majority in the country (40% of the electorate at least) which means bringing back the missing voters. Goodness knows but the forgettable John Major reached people that are off the map today.

As for the BNP in the parts of the world I know their votes come about 90% from Labour. UKIP - well I keep on saying it just make the promise of the referendum absolute and one of the first acts of the next Conservative government and we will gain many "change" voters.

[Dan Hassett]

Eugene, I would imagine that the BNP were canvassing in Swanley because there is a council by-election there on 19th February and the BNP are running a candidate.

[Graham D'Amiral]

14 point tory lead, with labour under 30% I'm not unhappy with that.

[DJT]

Of course the SNP are a fringe party...they only have support in some parts of Scotland!

In the grand scheme of the GB & NI of course they are fringe....to suggest anything else is absurd! To the point where i've just realised i'm stating the blindingly obvious, so i'll be shut up!

[Mara MacSeoinin]

I wholeheartedly agree with Ken Stevens' quote above; I moved over to the Conservatives believing that they provided a refreshing change to Labour's inverted totalitarian nonsense, but, after listening to the kind of interminable waffle that all mainstream British politicians come out with these days, I can discern very little difference between the two. Both are obsessed with money, first and foremost; Labour has ruinous policies and the Conservatives seem to have none. Civil liberties take the back burner for both parties - Grieves' weak response to Section 8 Cl. 152 of the Coroners and Justice Bill was shameful, as was this site's lack of coverage of it - and the representation of people's interests seems to be a more and more vague and arbitrary concept rather than reflecting the views of an ever more angry electorate. I joined the Libertarian party last month and am very glad that I did so: it is a delightful relief to hear clear, honest, humorous and above all real opinions of and reactions to national and world events.

[Carrie]

Dave McEwan Hill, quite honestly the way things are at the moment I'd be quite happy if Scotland went Independent and so should the Tories be actually. England (where the power and money really is) would have permenant conservative rule and would'nt have to suffer another Labour government for a long time, and the Scots would have to start financing themselves.

[Steve Foley]

"Section 8 Cl. 152 of the Coroners and Justice Bill "

What's that all about then and why should we fear it?

[TomTom]

IF people are switching to the BNP what would you suggest the party do about it adopt BNP policies. The way many on this site defend racism it would surprise me if many did want that.

Posted by: Jack Stone

Your comments are puerile, perhaps you are simply intellectually challenged but your input is facile and riddled with slogans. Why don't you give us an analysis of BNP policies rather than using weasel words like "racism".

You regurgitate Guardian propaganda without any rational input into anything on this blog. It is always some kind of childish outburst. People do vote BNP because they have a vote and they use it. Others abstain.

Do you prefer abstentions to BNP votes Jack Stone ?

Don't you think people voting BNP have concerns other than race ? Crime for instance ? Do you live in a high crime area in Southend ? Do you have terrorist suspects arrested in Southend ?

Do you police turn a blind eye to certain kinds of crime ?

Do you have no-go areas in Southend ?

Why don't you engage the grey cells periodically instead of sitting in front of a computer screen unloading bile and bigotry against those who do not share your very blinkered view of life in Britain ?

[Leo Enticknap]

"This poll seems to confirm Saturday's LD progress."

IIRC it somewhat disputes it. Saturday's Telegraph poll had the Tories on 40, Labour on 28 and the Lib Dems on 22.

In yesterday's, the boost for the LDs on Saturday translated into a boost for the minor parties instead, with the LDs in their long-term norm of 15-20%.

"If the BNP/UKIP are gaining that's bad news for our European prospects."

There I agree completely, given the impending Euro elections and the method of polling used for them. in an FPTP general election another 3% for the minor parties (excepting the Scottish and Welsh nationalists on their home turfs) is insignificant. In a European election, there could be seats at stake.

[bill]

People don't vote BNP because they agree with that party's policies.
Most BNP voters simply want to watch extremely complacent mainstream politicians all of hues eat a giant sh*t sandwich as they are forced to share a platform with the likes of Griffin. What other way is there to make the political class squirm?

[Sally Roberts]

"14 point tory lead, with labour under 30% I'm not unhappy with that"

Neither am I, Graham! I think those who are expecting us to be elected with a 1983-stylee landslide are kidding themselves, but I would be VERY happy indeed with a 94 seat majority in the House of Commons.

Yorkshireman, interesting about the BNP threat in the Euros. Linda McAvan should be worried then?

[Onthejob]

"you cannort lump the greens in with the BNP"

Why not the Greens are colourblind communists!

[Rude Tory]

"We'll miss you Ken. Thank you for your many interesting contributions."

I won't. There's more than enough angry rightists on this site already.

[Pete]

UKIP got a massive 33 votes in a by election last week. Hardly a ringing endorsement for their policies (do they have any?).

Have you also noticed that UKIP supporters have now abandoned any form of debate with anyone who questions what they stand for or exposes the hypocricy of their MEPs and instead they accuse anyone who disagrees with them of being BNP supporters or ex-UKIP members who are now working for the BNP.

No doubt we will get the usual UKIP trolls, sock puppets and losers spamming up Conservative Home.

[Sally Roberts]

I will miss Ken too and hope he reconsiders his decision. He has been a great deal less "angry" than some of the other "rightists" or indeed leftists here and has frequently shown a good sense of humour.

[Robert Eve]

Until Dave commits to leave the EU, UKIP will continue to take votes from the Tories.

[marian]

""You can hardly lump the Greens in with the BNP!!!"

Why not? Both left wing fascist parties!"

Left wing, right wing at the very extreme edge of politics they are pretty much the same thing. The very worst of the Dark Greens advocate reducing the population, to produce a sustainable and wealthy civilisation. However the vast bulk of the Green's are liberal with hair-shirt mentality.

[ex-UKIP member]

Ken Stevens 20.51.

Are you the same Ken Stevens who has posted on various newspaper websites and blogs since at least 2007 how disgusted you are with Conservatives/Labour or Liberal Democrats and that you will be voting UKIP.

It is rather useless and pathetic to keep posting the same style of rant time and time again on different sites.

Your current rant and stomp off into the wild yonder is laughable as you have done this act before on numerous other sites.

You have this performance off to a fine art now - there have been so many repeats you remind me of the BBC.

Where will we see you next performing your 'I am a tory but can't support them anymore and have been forced to vote for UKIP' act?

[Mark Williams]

Why is the rise of the Greens, UKIP, SNP or the even the Lib Dems (I will draw the line at the BNP) seen as a wholly bad thing. Thheir rise has been at Labour's expense, and we see the left fracturing.

The rise in the Conservative vote is encouraging but we have to accept that at any one time there is probably a limit on the number of people who will switch to the Conservatives from their most recent voting position. That may change over time and with good work and eventually a fair showing on the BBC there is no reason why it should not increase substantially.

A few years ago the Conservatives picked up the votes of some on the right wing of the Lib Dems and Labour and some undecided, but as this process progresses it will be increasingly hard to pick up the more entrenched votes. I suspect that the party does not need to go chasing those votes, but simply to put together coherent policies to win in 2010.

[Martin Wright]

Philip @22.50

"but we must aim for a majority of at least 200!"

At the risk of sounding like a semi- detached MP from the 1980s, I'd much rather a small but workable majority. In this instance it's to keep the Cameroons honest and conservative!

[Mara MacSeoinin]

Steve Foley @ 6.07 - from my 'no to the CAJB' Facebook site -
Hidden in the new Coroners and Justice Bill in Part 8 is one clause (cl.152)
amending the Data Protection Act. It would allow ministers to override any Act of Parliament and access every single item of information held on you through 'Information Sharing Orders'. This information - be it your medical history, your tax history, your educational history - can then be shared freely with any government body, here or abroad, and with any private company that seeks access to your history.
There is no limit under this Act to the government being able to build a complete picture about your public and personal life. Building on the idea that if you've done nothing wrong, you've nothing to hide, it is the most severely intrusive and dangerous challenge to civil liberties that we've faced yet. And, considering that No2id's ICM poll revealed that 65% thought data-sharing was 'bad' or 'very bad', the State clearly has no interest in our opinions on the matter.

[Michael Heaver]

I think the size of the vote out there for UKIP in the European Elections is going to scare the hell out of you Tories! This is OUR election.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

DJT
SNP support is over 30% across all of Scotland so they don't only have support in parts of Scotland.

Carrie
Scotland has always paid its way and continues to do so. Unfortunately the myth of Scotland milking English tax payers money has become so deeply entrenched that whole swathes of the English population believe it. The myth was built on a lie called GERS which was a political exercise entered into by successive Tory and Labout Governemnts to frighten timid scots away from supporting Independence. The accession of an SNP Government and the total destruction of the GERS figures by eminent economist have resulted in the most recent GERS figures showing Scotland in the fiscal surplus it has always enjoyed.
Laying aside oil revenues we could point out that since the second world war the Scottish whisly indistry has provided more revenue to the state than the whole of the British car industry and I could go on and on. With only 8.5% of the UK population the bloch grant that scpotland gets from Westminster - whether it is too small or too large - has a neglible effect on overall UK spending and the fact that Scots choose to spend the money in different ways to England has no effect whatsoever on spending in England though the tabloid press would have you believe we Scots were tearing the bread out of the very mouths of the log suffering English.
It is matter of some wonder to me how easily the English swallow such rubbish. Do you think England would be hanging onto Scotland if Scotland was costing you money?

The silly arguement that Scotland after 300 years of a union that is supposed to be good for us needs subsidy from the UK is in fact the best arguement for Scotland needing independence

[ex-UKIP Member]

Michael Heaver 12.04 is a 19 year old rather jolly and over excitable UKIP student member.

Young Mick the elections won't "scare the hell out of you Tories".

Elections come and elections go. You lose some and you win some. Although the size of UKIPs vote in 2004 was a surprise to many it is unlikely they can rally that level of support again.

Yes no doubt UKIP will still get a sizeable vote resulting in 5 or more UKIP MEPs who will continue to keep their snouts in the trough of EU cash for another 5 years.

It is also a rather foolish thing to say, and I put this down to your immaturity, to claim that "this is OUR election".

No politician or political party 'owns' an election and this is a very arrogant thing to say. Elections belong to us the electorate.

[Tommy]

"It is matter of some wonder to me how easily the English swallow such rubbish. Do you think England would be hanging onto Scotland if Scotland was costing you money?"

Have you finished with your anglophobic rant?

I think you will find that english public opinion is firmly on the side of scottish independence. Besides, one could use the same logic on the scottish people why would they still support the union, as the vast majority do, if being part of the UK was so terrible?

Although the SNP are currently riding high, many scottish people, myself included, support them because they are the most competent people to do the job and not because they support independence.

[Ken Stevens]

OK, so I couldn’t resist popping back for a quick look at this thread. Many thanks for your kind remarks, Tim and Sally.

As for the intemperate outburst of ex-UKIP member at 09:50, goodness aren’t I famous/notorious. Are you sure you haven’t conflated my name with someone else’s? Googling ‘Ken Stevens’ makes me realise that I’m even commoner than I thought. For example, I noted a KS complaining about diesel prices as compared with those during his drive to Spain. Not me.

My activities have been focussed on ConHome because it is foremost amongst such sites by allowing a range of viewpoints. I have occasionally followed links from it to comment on a few other blogs. I got bored with the Telegraph site because it wasn’t a debating forum, just a platform for rants. I was a regular on The Scotsman’s site for a while, baiting the Braveheart kinds of independista who were peddling myths & falsehoods (but was otherwise respecting the forward-looking views of the other ones), with the occasional foray since. As for stomping off from those or “numerous other sites”, quite simply: No, no, and no again. No stomping and no “numerous”. Nothing to have "got off to a fine art".

The reference to the BBC was not only way off beam but particularly wounding ;-)

All I have departed from is the Eng Dems, a little while ago, in favour of UKIP - a fact that I declared on ConHome so that subsequent comments I made could be judged against this changed standpoint.

The timing of my stomp in the current instance arises only because it is approaching the time for renewal of ConHome “subscription”, rather than because of petulantly throwing toys out of pram on a particular issue under debate. It doesn’t seem right to take advantage of this excellent site by participating without donating. I admit to a momentary waver in this respect, not only because of Tim and Sally’s sentiments but also, as I have said on a previous occasion, if ConHome were the party then I would vote for it. My disillusionment arises from the fact that despite the more open thinking of many contributors here (but certainly not all!), the influence on Conservative Party policy is not readily apparent to me in my main areas of concern. I'm not a political sort of person, as such. I merely want the governance of my sovereign country restored to a sound footing.

Yes indeed my two overarching themes are loss of sovereignty to EU and England’s democratic deficit. I am open to suggestions and guidance on other policies but, alas, they are subordinate to the EU aspect, since they cannot be freely implemented by an only partially sovereign parliament. You may regard those themes as boringly repetitive (along with my related disdain for the lack of differentiation between the three main parties); I call it consistency of principle. I have been known to comment on other topics as well.

I was amused at being included as a rightist. Shouldn’t rightism be where conservatism is anchored?!

[pp]

Would it be so bad for the tories to do really, really badly in the euro elections?

It will mean the incomming tory government have less influence on how the EU operates, so more reason to leave than try to reform...

Won't it?

ps. are we still in the EPP? really? are you sure? oh....

[Malcolm Dunn]

David McEwan Hill, I don't want to be rude to you after your considered last post but I think you are wildly incorrect with your assertion that 'Scotland has always paid its way'. If it ever did in the past it most certainly does not now.
We've been through all this before, I'm therefore suprised that you stick to this fiction.

[Steve Foley]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/berkshire/7881299.stm.

A rat deserts the sinking ship. Martin Salter MP (Labour) who one would think was "Mr Reading" according to his publicity machine has decided to fall on his sword and stand down at the next General Election.

Alok Sharma the PPC should have a shoe-in as Labour has no decent local Candidates to field, only one of their Councillors having the gravitas and experience and I doubt he will stand. I'm sure they will parachute in some nondescript or maybe a failed Labour MP from those who got the bum's rush in 2005.

Has this Forum started a "Chicken Run" thread as Salter can be added to the list?

As a certain Lady once said, Rejoice!

[The Bishop Swine]

"IF people are switching to the BNP what would you suggest the party do about it adopt BNP policies. The way many on this site defend racism it would surprise me if many did want that."

No, but we should bang the drum for Britian like we used to. Respect for Crown and country and a healthy regard for our own traditions and values.

Crown,Country,law and Order, church, respect for authority,Pride in our armed services, police, emergency services...etc you know what I am getting at. Home and hearth.The Sort of thing that is second nature to Conservatives. Not being ashamed to sing Jerusalem. Clamping down on anti-social behaviour like spitting. Respect for older people. Support for the family and Marriage and doing the right thing. Mr's T. knew this instinctively and I suspect that once Labour is gone we will have no difficulty rediscovering it.

[Yet Another Anon]

Back to the overall % of the electorate. Our target should not be simply a majority in the Commons but a majority in the country (40% of the electorate at least) which means bringing back the missing voters.
It would take a lot for any political party to get 40% of the electorate than just regaining lost voters, in 1951 both main political parties exceeded 40% of the electorate but only barely, Labour in that election got the highest percentage of those eligible to vote since WWI and the Conservatives about the next highest, turnout and the vote for the two main parties has collapsed to the point where potentially a party could win an overall majority with less than a third of those turning out to vote, let alone eligible to vote.

There are somewhere in the order of 48 million people eligible to vote, to get 40% of that means getting 19.2 million votes or more, even in 1983 if Francis Pym hadn't made the comment about landslides being bad and even if there had been by polling day any worry that Labour might actually win, it would have been hard to get to that number.

Surely the ambition of every political party is to win every vote, the target is to win an overall majority irrespective of what vote is achieved. To get 19.2 million votes the Conservatives would have to more than double the total vote they got in 2005.

[Steve Foley]

"Surely the ambition of every political party is to win every vote"

No, this is impossible and impractical. It is no use for example, doing a Third Canvass in a safe seat or an unwinnable one but failing to get the vote out in a Marginal next door, hence the idea of Mutual Aid. In my area a Party Worker would be better helping in either of the Reading Seats to help Rob Wilson hold on in Reading East or now that Labour's Martin Salter is to quit at the next Election to help Alok Sharma win Reading West, a lot more possible as Salter could probably account for a personal vote of 1500 to 2000 which his successor is unlikely to get. Newbury would also be a good place to work as Richard Benyon will have to beat off the strong challenge from David Rendell, the Lib-Dem MP from 1993 to 2005. On the other hand Bracknell, Windsor, Maidenhead, Wokingham are all fairly safe Tory seats.

So I would say that it is the ambition of any political party to win every effective vote.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Malcolm Dunn

It is not a fiction and you should go to the trouble of accessing the latest Gers report to learn the truth instead of the swallowing the tabloid pap which typifies this silly debate.
I have no intention of going over this again as the notion that a tiny country with a tiny population which is also the 7th highest oil producer in the world is in deficit could only be the case if Scotland had been subject to economic mismanagement of Zimbabwean proportions (according to the eminent economist Andrew Hughes-Hallett who, I think you'll concede, knows rather more about it than you do).
If however you are actually interested in learning the truth can I recommend the following website which is maintained by an economist couple who both were in the employ of HMG in that capacity
www.cuthbert1.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk
or
George Rosie's definitive investigation "Scotching the Myth" at
www.alba.org.uk/scotching/myth

I'm not into cheap shots and tabloid nonsense and the fact that so many in England have been quite deliberately deceived by the media about the real fiscal relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK does nobody any service.
However I should probably contemplate on the fact that the nonsense is providing a climate of opinion among the underinformed in England that wants Scotland to go its own way.

[Jack Stone]

Tom Tom. You can dress it up in any language you like but if you vote for the BNP you are doing just the same as the the Germans did when they voted for Hitler.
There is no excuse for racism. As for crime the majority of criminals are white and were born here therefore the argument that the high crime rate is all down to these nasty immigrants is not only nonsense it is just based on racism.
Someone once said that for evil to triumph good men stand back and do nothing. For evil to triumph all it needs is for good men to vote BNP.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Then David no doubt you would be pleased to see the Barnett formula scrapped in its entirety?

[The Bishop Swine]

"Germans did when they voted for Hitler."

Voting for Jobs, Stability, security and a strong leader. 99% had no inkling were it would lead them.

A vote is an act of faith, we cannot be absolutely certain that any potential leader hasn't got a hidden agenda. German is an example of what a relatively small number of basically criminal people can achieve when they usurp that moral authority of the state.

[Jack Stone]

The Bishop swine. Hitler made it pretty plain from the start that he was racist and he hated the jews. The German people didn`t realise it would lead to gas chambers and the holocaust but the lesson that the rise of Hitler taught us is that when you elect nazis`s like the BNP this is where it could very well end up.

[Malcolm Stevas]

T.England:
”I would never vote for any party but Tory at a main election..”
So why should they ever listen to anything you say? You announce in public that you’ll vote reflexively for the Tories (Eeeeh! Man and boy, Ah’m a Tory, they’ve got my vote!) so they’ll just write you off. Don’t you ever try to ascertain exactly what you’re likely to get in exchange for your vote? Don't you care?
Buckinghamshire Tory:
” Who cares if some nutjobs vote BNP or UKIP?”
Ah, the true voice of Tory England! Utterly complacent, arrogant, dismissive – one is tempted to say unthinking too, like Mr England (above)… I’m unlikely to vote BNP except for tactical reasons in some obscure yet-unimagined circumstances, but I could quite conceivably vote UKIP if there was a credible candidate in my constituency. I wonder, do you lot think voting is like choosing between supermarkets? I mean, you’re a Waitrose fan and wouldn’t dream of using Sainsburys? Seems to me you’re in love with a brand label even though the product has been debased, and instead of being built from cast iron on the Clyde it’s now glued together from white metal stampings in China…