Tory reshuffle likely "within days"

With reshuffle speculation getting out of control it is now expected that the much-anticipated Tory reshuffle will happen sooner rather than later, "within days" according to one senior aide to the Tory leadership.

The biggest nonsense award goes to those writing that the Deputy status for William Hague is a snub to George Osborne.  William Hague is one of the party's biggest beasts and it's good news that he's taking a larger political role as he winds down his outside interests.  But noone should think that George Osborne isn't going to continue to be the second biggest force in the parliamentary Conservative Party.  Titles aren't everything.  Prescott was Tony Blair's Deputy in name but was never as powerful as Gordon Brown.  And that's not just because he occupies the biggest job in the shadow cabinet (after leader), it's because he remains very close to David Cameron and makes many of Project Cameron's biggest political judgments. 

One new suggestion is that Jeremy Hunt and Caroline Spelman might 'job swap'. If Caroline Spelman doesn't then receive a clean enough bill of health from the 'nannygate' inquiry she'll step aside from Culture, Media and Sport and be replaced by Ed Vaizey from within that team, so requiring no second big reshuffle. For the record - and a fair number of people are suggesting otherwise in threads - I believe in the integrity of Mrs Spelman and hope and expect her to be exonerated.  See ConHome's 7th June 2008 post.  There is a separate issue of whether she could continue as Chairman.  You can register your opinion on that question in this poll (which closes at 3pm today).

Of all the pieces written on the reshuffle this piece by Fraser Nelson is the best.  He writes about one of the most under-written influences on David Cameron: Andrew MacKay MP.  On Mr Mackay's own website we learn this: "Andrew is Senior Political and Parliamentary Advisor to David Cameron. Andrew works out of the Leader's Office, attending all key meetings, including the Shadow Cabinet.  At his appointment David said that he wanted someone of Andrew's experience to be by his side overseeing relationships with the Parliamentary party and beyond."  Here is the key extract of Fraser's article:

"Those in Norman Shaw South [Cameron's Nest] may laugh at the more fevered reshuffle speculation in the press, much of which strikes them as demonstrable nonsense. ‘But the troops don’t think it’s nonsense,’ explains one frontbencher. ‘And that’s the problem’. Email is no substitute for direct contact. The geographic dislocation of the Tory office layout has broken lines of communication. All of this feeds paranoia and amplifies the Chinese whispers echoing around Parliament. Many of these whispers can be traced to remarks that Andrew Mackay was making too loudly over dinner one evening recently — to the effect that Mr Cameron had decided to sack a senior frontbencher the day after the election. You might imagine these remarks to be of little consequence — Mr Mackay being only a former whip with almost no public profile. But those aware of his real significance in the party today would have craned their necks to listen, for he occupies an increasingly important and little-documented role. In the words of one shadow Cabinet member, he has become ‘something of a Rasputin figure’. Officially, he is ‘political and parliamentary adviser to the leader of the opposition’ — an intriguing title which gives him a passport to Mr Cameron’s morning meetings. But his real role is much broader. ‘Some time ago, David said to him: “I want you to be my Willie”,’ one MP tells me — referring, of course, to the service the late Lord Whitelaw supplied to Baroness Thatcher. ‘That’s Mackay’s skill: he can sniff the air, tell which tribes are forming, who’s up to mischief. He reports back to Cameron.’ Hence his potential relevance as a reshuffle rune-reader. Mr Mackay can advise as to which groupings need to be kept sweet, and which frontbenchers can be safely disposed of. His role does not require him to be popular, and his friends say he is happy in the shadows and ‘likes his holidays too much to join the front bench’. While his influence is rather mysterious, it is not seen as malign. As the leader’s office operates in a separate orbit from Parliament, Mr Cameron needs the best intelligence he can get."

Andrew MacKay is already a powerful figure within the Conservative Party. He'll be a major power in a Tory government, too.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Laugh Out Loud]

Resfuffle 'fever' is the ultimate in self obsessed Westminster Village nonsense.

Not one voter is remotely interested.

[Simon N]

Often wondered why his wife, Julie Kirkbride MP, isn't involved in our frontbench. She was a big part of Hague's team when he was leader so it would be good to see her back. Unless because of her husbands role (and with a young family) she's staying out of the limelight?

[James Maskell]

The way things are, it would seem pretty inappropriate to spend time changing the portfolios. If a change happens it must be absolutely necessary, otherwise dont bother.

[Villager]

Yes but we are. Keep it coming!

[Sally Roberts]

And about time too! Let's get on with it... please!

[asterix]

It clearly is a snub to osborne. I don't see how anybody who is informed could argue otherwise. And whats more is being briefed as such by cameron's team.

Given everything that has happened Osborne is probably happy to take the hit and keep his role as shadow chancellor.

[resident leftie]

Cameron has taken responsibilities away from Osborne and given them to Hague. Clearly it was all too much for him. Perhaps it's not a snub, but it's certainly not an endorsement.

[Jack Stone]

Andrew Mackay was a disaster as Shadow Northern Ireland Minister. Went skiing on the day of The Good Friday Agreement if I remember correctly.
If he is as powerful as has been reported god help us!!!

[Ex-candidate]

I was told by a senior official in CCHQ and two MPs that Andrew Mackay purged the Candidates List after David Cameron's election as Leader in December 2005. My sources also said that Mackay was also a key figure in deciding who was put on the Priority List.

The "victims" tend to blame Francis Maude, Bernard Jenkin or Shireen Ritchie. However, if my sources are correct as they usually are, the real villain is probably Mackay. The fact that unelected advisers have so much power is an affront to democracy and an insult to hard-working candidates and party members.

Purged candidates were told that they had no right of appeal. Several capable former PPCs, who had excellent results, have defected to UKIP after being told by Shireen Ritchie that their Tory careers were over. They will stand against Conservatives in target seats at the next election and could prevent David Cameron having an overall majority at the next election.

"Loyalists" here will complain bitterly and will say that the complaints are just sour grapes. The reality is that the Conservative Party must learn that loyalty works in both directions. If Cameron's advisers and officials end able candidates' careers, they will pay the inevitable price at the next European and general elections.

Wake and smell the coffee. It has a very sour taste but is less painful than being stabbed in the back by factional Cameroons or Thatcherite careerists wielding the knives to further their own interests.

[Mr Angry]

Wake me up when it's over ........ Yaaawwwn!

[Jaz Hayre]

As far as I'm concerned I've always seen Hague as the deputy leader since day one. Osbourne is the "policy wonk". It's not even a snub, it's a load of nonsense made up by the media.

As for "out-of-control"? No one in the public cares.

[London Tory]

We have known for ages that Andrew Mackay is a very powerful presence within the Parliamentary Party. He was an excellent Whip in our last administration, and in my opinion should be Chief Whip in our next one. He is a TRIBAL CONSERVATIVE- we have too few of them.

More power to him.

[Malcolm Dunn]

This is taking far too long. I doubt people are that interested but I hope DC gets it over with soon.

[Henry Mayhew - ukipper, ex Tory Approved Candidate]

I too can't wait with all this excitement building. Who's going to be in, who out??

How powerful is Mr MacKay?

Excellent questions :)

p.s. Yes, why don't we all shut up about Gaza being turned into Somalia. What a boring topic dead people can be when they are being killed by 'Israel'.

Go Osborne! Go Zionroons!

[Jack Stone]

PERSONALLY ABUSIVE COMMENT OVERWRITTEN.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Obviously, the ongoing speculation about this reshuffle is damaging. Many ordinary voters will simply be tired of this. And, who can blame them?

Like many others, I believe strongly that both David Davis and John Redwood should return to the Shadow Cabinet, at some stage.

[David Belchamber]

The recession suggests the need for some older, wiser people to brought back in - at least for an initial period.

If David Cameron grasps the nettle and is bold in doing what is in the long-term interests of the country i.e. does a Thatcher, he could be in for at least two terms and can bring in new young talent.

Basically, he needs quite a lot more gravitas than he has presently at his disposal.

[B.Garvie]

I am sure D.C will announce a fresh, invigorating team able to salvage what is left after Labour's disasterous performance. They will work as a cohesive team to lead and rebuild. Their collective business acumen is what is needed to help sustain thousands of businessess weather this crisis and thus secure jobs.

The country needs belief in the future. This new team will bring confidence back in the hope of winning the next election and returning sanity to our country.