Tory lead 7% in new YouGov poll

A YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sun newspaper puts the parties on the following percentages:

Comparisons are with the last pre-Christmas YouGov poll.

The Sun report suggests that these figures would leave David Cameron 36 seats short of a majority. However, the UK Polling Report swing calculator computes that the Tories would only be 13 seats short of a majority on these figures, whilst Electoral Calculus suggests that David Cameron would be 9 seats short of a majority.

Comments

[Raj]

Not bad. I think the Brown bounce is over (touch wood), and the electorate will increasingly turn away from Labour as they realise how bad things are/will get.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Mmmmmm. Not as good as I thought it would be. The Government have been woeful in the last few weeks and the media narrative has turned against them again. I thought we would be doing better. All to play for.

[Jack Stone]

I suspect that once the new policy of public spending cuts becomes more apparent to the public this lead will cease!

[Malcolm Dunn]

Not sure if that's the real Jack Stone above. He does talk about spending cuts even though there aren't any which is par for the course. But would the real Jack use words like 'suspect', 'apparent' or 'cease'? I think we should be told!

[Gypsie Rose Lee]

Jack Stone - I agree with you; the public will be incensed if civil servants don't get the latest flat screen tvs next year and have a wopping good Christmas (or should I say wintervill festival )party at taxpayers expense; I can see the poll tax riots all over again demanding that millions of their money is spent on more diversity advisors. I know they say you can have too much of a good thing, but I say the more diversity advisors the better, especialy if it can stop those few nasty policemen left who actullay think there job is to catch criminals instead of being there to promote "alternative" lifstyles.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Draper-Stone, you're getting a bit tiring.

Printing money, increasing borrowing and putting up taxes aren't exactly a recipe for economic success. With people tightening their belts, they have every right to expect politicians to do the same- public spending cuts are needed.

[Another Richard]

What policy is that Jack? Perhaps you think that people approve of paying for non-jobs and layabouts?

I suspect that as it becomes increasingly apparant that Brown's economic policies are a disaster that the lead will grow.

[Deborah Thomas, PPC Twickenham]

The lead is fine and this stage in the cycle - we're not going to have 20-point leads for 4 years. It is, however, uniform - do we have any polls from target seats at hand?

[Nick]

Pretty pleasing results. We've also got to consider that we're likely to outperform this in the marginal seats because we've had candidates in place for such a long time.

So in fact, we may be looking at a very small Tory majority on these figures. Or, I'm being to optimistic?!

[Ron McTivinity]

This is truly awful news. This proves the Conservatives are never going to be re-elected and Brown is officially the saviour of the nation. UKIP are also going to capitalise on this and outperform the Tories for the next 15 elections.

I'm joking of course, I think this is a great start to the new year and marks the death of the so-called Labour fightback.

Shadow cabinet - clean up your act and stay on message.

[Mike]

Jack Stone, I think you'll find that a policy of ringfencing the public sector whilst the rest of the country goes to hell in a handcart and mortgaging our children's future to do so will have limited appeal with the electorate.

[Super Blue]

"Draper-Stone, you're getting a bit tiring."

You might very well think that, Cleethorpes Rock, I couldn't possibly comment.

[Jack Stone's Mum]

Jack - time for bed, you've school in the morning.....

[ChrisD]

"Mmmmmm. Not as good as I thought it would be. The Government have been woeful in the last few weeks and the media narrative has turned against them again. I thought we would be doing better"

Malcolm, I think its a good poll, some were even predicting that Labour might be neck and neck or even in the lead just a few shorts weeks ago before Christmas.

I am a political anorak, and even this week I am barely checking/posting on the political blogs or checking the newspapers out. We need at least another couple of weeks to a month before we can really see a real picture or trend in the polls developing.

[A Cllr]

Seems the bounce has ended.

Think about it.

Mandleson back, Campbell back, Draper involved.

No infighting.

BBC love in.

Brown flies around the world.
Brown pumps money into banks.
Brown goes for a VAT cut.

We have a nervous breakdown over a holiday to Crete.

And the best they can do is be 7 points behind.

[Sam R]

Not bad at all, considering that ringmaster Broon has taken the circus on tour to Liverpool while Badger is getting out his plates to print off some Monopoly money. By the time those unfortunates, many elderly, who are depending on interest from savings, find themselves with no return, and the increasing numbers of unemployed find (a) that they cannot meet thier mortgage repayments, an (b) that their homes are in negative equity, hell will have no fury to match the betrayed. Then the circus will take on the appearance of a Roman Arena.

[James T]

Absolutely appalling result for the Conservatives.

Conservatives are always bleating about what they say is a very dire state this Country is in. To a certain extent I would agree.

However a number of good things have been done by the Government. Its real problem is the economy. Oh I forgot the current Government has been following a Free-Market Economic policy.

Now the Country knows what it Really its like to have a Right Wing economic policy! Cue a disaster for Tory prospects.

Anyway, given the preceived Extreme Unpopularity of the Labour Government the Conservatives can only manage a poultry 7% opinion poll lead and cannot now, on average achieve more than 40%.

It is only the deluded in the Tory Party who assume a majority at the next General Election.

The most likely outcome is a Coalition with the Lib Dems. Now that would make interesting bedfellows!! And wont last long!

[James T]

Gypsie Rose Lee

They are not "Alternative Lifestyles" such people are who they are.

And besides the police do do their job and do not promote what you imply. Please get your facts right.

[Gay Alan Fan]

This poll lead is purely down to Alan Duncan's incredible charisma. They should make him Shadow Chancellor and George Osborne could work under him, if you know what I mean oh yes!

[Gloy Plopwell]

Fabulous stupendous news. well done lib dems!!! Up to 15%. It was 11-13% in some pols in last 18 months.
Lib dems haven't overtaken Labour yet, just a bit late ,but will do very soon! And cross over the Tories aswell by end of hte year, to win General in 2010.Very excrited.

[Gezmond007]

labour government in power for 11 years , economy on the slide , unemployment on the up and all dave can get in the latest poll is a 7 point lead . I think it is very bad for the Tories ! Very bad indeed !

[Richard]

People need to bear in mind,best case scenario for Labour is a hung Parliament.

Brown would be finished,66 MAJ to 0,hardly a ringing endorsment.

So as long as the Tories are the largest Party after GE,Brown is out,Labour will have nobody of note to replace him,NO TIME FOR A NOVICE,WILL BACKFIRE!

Browns ego,which has not allowed any successor to establish themselves with the public,will be the final nail in the coffin,Labour lives and dies with Clown,sorry Brown.

New Labour won 3 elections,Tony Blair won 3 elections,Old Labour,wich we have now,is still 1970,s unelectable.

WILL BROWN SAY'NO TIME FOR A NOVICE' TO OBAMA????????????didn't think so!

[Richard]

To the Labour voters on here,who seem to have such low expectations,a hung Parliament is now a victory,MMMMmmmmm.

66 Maj to 0!!! isn't that defeat?

I would worry more about come July,if the GDP is not growing,what is the plan?what is the excuse? more borrowing? cut Services,BROWN HAS SOME EXPLAINING TO DO COME JULY 09.

THE CLOCK IS TICKING!

[Matt Wright]

Brown bounce is well and truly finished. Now we need to build a sustainable lead sufficient to achieve a working majority.

[Richard]

Tories on here,cheer up,even if we are the biggest Party by one,thats a win,Brown's out.

Labour will have a new Leader,Cameron and Osbourne,will be the faces people know.

The new Labour leader(no pun intended)will leave the public saying WHO!!!!.

Stalin puts himself first,they have no successor,thats why they kept him,LABOUR OLD OR NEW,DIE'S WITH HIM.

[Opinicus]

"Hard pressed on my right. My centre is yielding. Impossible to manoeuvre. Situation excellent. I attack"

CCHQ in yet another Foch up.

1% down in the middle of the worst recession for 100yrs. 1% down.

"I don't know what effect they have upon Labour but by God they frighten me"

[Richard]

The best result for the Tories might be a hung Parliament,instead of a 10-20 MAJ.

A simple defeat of Labour,would make them go back to what won them 3 GE's,Blairites would win and choose the new Leader.

However with a Hung Parliament,with Tories biggest Party,Brown would have to go,we know that,however,the extreme left of the Labour Party might conclude they were not left enough,thats why they lost,and they would put up their own candidate.

There would be a unedifying spectical of Labour tearing itself apart.We know the Public never votes for a Political Party that is in-fighting.

Conservatives would Govern for six months,then hold a GE against a split Labour Party,this could lead to a landslide Tory victory,it just means having 2 GE's instead of one.

[TomTom]

Its real problem is the economy. Oh I forgot the current Government has been following a Free-Market Economic policy.

Really ? You are delusional. To have boosted public spending since 2001 and increased public sector payroll by 24% is hardly "free market", nor incidentally is increasing National Insurance repeatedly and introducing HIPs and other extra burdens.

Nor is the Bank of England being rolled over to implement rate cuts as inflation is outside the bounds set.

In fact if this is "free market" the USSR must have been a freewheeling capitalist economy under Leonid Brezhnev

[TomTom]

Conservatives would Govern for six months,then hold a GE against a split Labour Party,this could lead to a landslide Tory victory,it just means having 2 GE's instead of one.

Didn't work in 1974

[Alex]

Moderator - now you have Drapers IP Address (AKA Jack Stone) - why not block him?

TomTom -
'Didn't work in 1974' ... there have never been any precedents in General Elections; it is a distinct possibility.

[Sally Roberts]

"Conservatives would Govern for six months,then hold a GE against a split Labour Party,this could lead to a landslide Tory victory,it just means having 2 GE's instead of one.

Didn't work in 1974"

Fair point, Tom Tom. We have more work to do!

[London Tory]

7% is ok, and well done to David Cameron for his energetic performance since Xmas. Getting Clarke back to assist him will also help.

I saw a couple of vox pops with locals in Derby and Liverpool following Brown's travelling circus this week. To a person they were scathing about Brown, the VAT non cut, and Labour's gimmickry and fake concern.

This is as good as it gets for odious Brown.

[Mr Disgusted]

It's not surprising that the Tory lead is so poor, what with having such an uninspiring leader as Cameron leading Blue Labour to oblivion.

Brown is wrecking my Country and all this Party can do is state that they are 'broadly in favour' when asked to comment on his initiatives.

[David Belchamber]

"Conservatives would Govern for six months,then hold a GE against a split Labour Party,this could lead to a landslide Tory victory,it just means having 2 GE's instead of one".

Much better to have a reshuffle now and get our 1st Xl out, let us hear much more from shadow cabinet members other than DC, produce a coherent and sensible economic policy and be bold.

If we do those things we should see the gap gradually widen and dispel any thoughts of a hung Parliament.

[resident leftie]

I reassert my prediction that the Tories will win, and will add this: they will get an overall majority. If you don't agree - take a look at the odds and put something down.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

The VAT cut has been met with derision. The reaction to interest rate cuts is "so what? They won't lend anyway" People are sensing that good old-fashioned Labour tax rises are on the way. This is a good as it will get for Labour.

A few polls in a row have put us at about 7% ahead after Labour narrowed the gap. It looks like the Brown bounce has been arrested. Now we need to build on this and get back into strong double-digit leads.

[James]

To quote a famous insurance ad: 'Calm down dear...'

Since early 2006, the Conservatives have been ahead in the polls consistently, excluding a three month 'new leader honeymoon period' that was widely predicted.

The conservatives were consistently over 40% for almost the whole of 2008 - a level of support not seen for us since the 1980s. We are still over 40%.

We have recently suffered the largest economic shock since the 1930s, during which our Prime Minister apparently 'saved the world' - even being asked by French journalists whether he was 'some sort of superman'.

Yet still we are over 40% and 7 points ahead.

Brown's big hope is/was for an early election on the back of an economic bounce, before the true horror of the forthcoming economic meltdown really hits home.

That window has closed (in fact, it never really opened). His only hope now is to cling on until 2010 and hope for more 'events' - but he has had the economic 'event' that could have been written as the perfect one for him, and it wasn't enough. What odds on another one that works for him...?

Bear in mind, the media narrative is extremely important here. And media narrative is already that the 'Brown bounce' is over. That is the prism through which coming events will be reported.

From the Sun yesterday, under the heading 'Cameron to seize power':

"Premier Gordon Brown has been hogging the TV headlines for months because of the credit crunch.

"Yet the Conservative lead remains steady over the past month....

"The survey shows the PM's "Brown bounce" seems to have run out of steam as he has failed to close the gap since before Christmas."

[m dowding]

Who is Peter Kellner's wife? Tim, you and I squabble over the efficacy of polling. Since that dreadful creep Mandleson and his p**s artist mate came on board the sinking ship, the polls changed. This lead at constantly above 40% is probably a balance of old core Labour voters. Evidence in the real world is very, very different.

[m dowding]

http://www.thesunl/homepage/news/columnists/john_gaunt/article2111808.ece

John Gaunts piece adds fuel to my post above. This the MSM commisioner for this poll. Of the replies to this article, 100% anti-Labour.

[m dowding]

"commissioner", typo not spelling ignorance, on this occasion

[Cleethorpes Rock]

From the Sun: "A huge majority of voters say the Government should slash payments to the UN, the EU, overseas aid and climate change projects."

Maybe if the party leadership had listened to the latest ConHome (spending priorities) survey, we'd have an even bigger lead!

[John (Northumberland)]

As I have been predicting for some time on ConHome blogs, the Brown bounce is over. He has slashed interest rates, reduced VAT, thrown tax payers cash around like confetti and he's trailing by 7 points.

Well the bad news is that he will go on doing so. 'Doing something' is better than doing nothing according to Mr Brown.

However, none of this will make any difference and as the welter of bad news takes its toll - our lead will be restored.

Watch this time next year...

[Julian Ware-Lane]

The narrative from some of the posters here does not match up with the facts. A government being behind in the polls mid-term is not unusual. If the Brown/Darling partnership is as unpopular as some here would think then why is the lead so small. I admit that I would rather have a Labour lead, but this is far from disastrous.

Once the election is called Cameron will have to announce some more polices, and that will be his undoing.

[Pedant]

James T.."a poultry 7% opinion poll lead ..."

Whose counting chickens then?

[Steve Tierney]

Alex 08:48 said:-
>>Moderator - now you have Drapers IP Address (AKA Jack Stone) - why not block him?<<

That would hardly be honourable, Alex.

I disagree with everything Jack Stone says too but disagreeing with somebody is not a reason to censor their views. That's a very NuLabour approach. As long as he isn't been rude, swearing, etc then he should be free to speak the same as the rest of us.

Opposition attacks like his are useful. They prepare you for the same attacks in the "real world" and give you food for thought just in case our own policies need reconsidering.

If you find his words too irritating then the best advice is 'Dont feed the troll." Ignore him.

If you think his comments merit counter-argument, that's great too. Who knows, maybe you'll make a great argument and convert him! (Its a weird world, anything can happen.)

But lets not start "banning" people. (Which couldn't possibly work anyway. Most IP addresses change regularly and even fixed-IP addresses can be overcome by using a different internet connection, an internet cafe, a work computer, or an online redirection service.)

[Sally Roberts]

"Moderator - now you have Drapers IP Address (AKA Jack Stone) - why not block him?"

Now that would be a real "own goal" for us! Imagine the adverse publicity we'd get!
I am amused by the game we are playing of "Spot the Real Jack Stone"! Personally I don't think he's Draper - my money is that "Dolly" is represented on here by our old chattering friend Northern Monkey and that Jack is someone else entirely (possibly a UKIPPER). Of course it could be that there are actually three or four Jack Stones skipping around on here!

[Andrew S]

I would expect our lead to keep increasing bit by bit.
I don't think Labour's poll rating will decrease much further, perhaps down to 31/32% at the lowest.

If I remember correctly we polled something like 29% at the last election, don't think they'll sink quite that far.

I've just thought of a question that I would love somebody here to answer;
If, as people say, the Tories received more votes than Labour at the last election, then why did the polls showing the election result show Labour in the lead?

[NigelJ]

Many of us polling nerds who regularly follow polls (particularly on the excellent ukpollingreport.com),predicted this poll. It is nonetheless a good result for team Cameron. If this is the best that Labour can manage with a media that was giving them the benefit of the doubt (particularly the supine BBC)then they are doomed when the media narrative goes against them. Expect a 10 point lead plus in about six months time. Definately not an early election now.

[NigelJ]

Julian Ware-Lane: this government isn't "midterm" it is fag end. By the way, if you are as you appear by your comments to be a Labour supporter don't you think the hyphenated name is a bit Tory-Toff like? Not sure the class warrior Ed Balls would approve, he is still cross with all of those double barrelled toffs that made him go to a fee paying school

[Sally Roberts]

"Not sure the class warrior Ed Balls would approve, he is still cross with all of those double barrelled toffs that made him go to a fee paying school"

Is that why his name is Ed Balls and not Edward Bo-Lark? (sorry Tim! ;-))

[John (Northumberland)]

I have to reply to Julian Ware-Lane.

"government behind mid-term not being unusual etc"

Perhaps not. But also consider this is a Government that has slashed interest rates, VAT, 'saved the banks' by nationalising and littered the economy with tax payers hard earned cash. And STILL They are trailling.

The media (especially the pro left wing BBC) has given Brown very favourable coverage. And very little coverage to the Tories. And Still they are trailling.

As for Cameron on the hustings? Who is younger, more attractive, the better speaker, more common sense policies and not tainted by this economic disaster? I know who my money is on!

Julian just think. Mr Brown is largely responsible for this economic meltdown. He arrogantly claimed credit for the boom whilst insisting he'd abolished bust. He's dropped these boasts recently!

He avoided the dot com recession with a Keynesian spending policy. But recessions are a vital (if unpleasant) part of the cycle - they help maintain the economic equilibrium.

He removed house prices from the inflation figures, which aided by cheap goods from China gave low interest rates & easy credit.
The Banks are also in the frame here. And hence massive personal indebtedness.

He was warned by the IMF & the European Central Bank about overspending for years. But ignored the warnings. So we enter this recession with the Government already heavily in debt (despite 15 years of growth).

It is a shameful record. And I'm sure history will judge it accordingly.

Only the tribal socialists can support this man now.

[Raj]

Imagine the adverse publicity we'd get!

Blog blocks troll? You're thinking too much of this website if you think one user being blocked would receive news coverage.

People are rarely blocked because of their views on blogs like this - it's because of their behaviour. E.g. trolling, using multiple IDs to have conversations with themselves, impersonating other users, offensive language, etc.

Blogs have rules to protect all users, not just a few who can cope with anything.

[Super Blue]

Plopwell,

"pol", "excriting", "suspendous"

Who taught you to spell? Draper-Stone, perhaps?

[Joe James B]

I think this poll figure could quite likely be pretty close to the result of the General Election.

Not certain of course, a fair plausible range on either side of it.

[Votedave]

"The Sun report suggests that these figures would leave David Cameron 36 seats short of a majority. However, the UK Polling Report swing calculator computes that the Tories would only be 13 seats short of a majority on these figures, whilst Electoral Calculus suggests that David Cameron would be 9 seats short of a majority."

I think we would actually be likely to gain a small overall majority with these figures. The above assumptions are made from uniform swings based on notional results, when no consideration is made to the strong probability of larger swings in the marginal constituencies, as in 1997 and 1992.

[Super Blue]

James,

Would Damian Green agree with you? I think not, having been arrested by nine ant-terrorist officers and having his computer fouled up. Too many senior police officers think of themselves as a wing of the Labour party and, after Stockwell, an ARMED wing as well.

Please can we have our independent police force and civil service back, please?

[Super Blue]

"Perhaps not. But also consider this is a Government that has slashed interest rates, VAT, 'saved the banks' by nationalising and littered the economy with tax payers hard earned cash. And STILL They are trailling.

The media (especially the pro left wing BBC) has given Brown very favourable coverage. And very little coverage to the Tories. And Still they are trailling.

As for Cameron on the hustings? Who is younger, more attractive, the better speaker, more common sense policies and not tainted by this economic disaster? I know who my money is on!

Julian just think. Mr Brown is largely responsible for this economic meltdown. He arrogantly claimed credit for the boom whilst insisting he'd abolished bust. He's dropped these boasts recently!

He avoided the dot com recession with a Keynesian spending policy. But recessions are a vital (if unpleasant) part of the cycle - they help maintain the economic equilibrium.

He removed house prices from the inflation figures, which aided by cheap goods from China gave low interest rates & easy credit.
The Banks are also in the frame here. And hence massive personal indebtedness.

He was warned by the IMF & the European Central Bank about overspending for years. But ignored the warnings. So we enter this recession with the Government already heavily in debt (despite 15 years of growth).

It is a shameful record. And I'm sure history will judge it accordingly.

Only the tribal socialists can support this man now.

Posted by: John (Northumberland) | January 09, 2009 at 14:27 "

John,

I think that sums the matter up quite well.