Tories 12% ahead in new ICM survey

The Conservatives are on 44% (+6%), Labour on 32% (-1%) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (-3%).  More in The Guardian.  Graphic later.

Comments

[Steve Foley]

All pointing in the right direction. A pity there is not a General Election this Thursday.

[Dave]

Great news! However Tories really need to develop a proper economic policy. Risk is that as soon as attention falls on tory economic policy it will be exposed as lacking. They seem happy to criticise without proposing much else contructive. Clarke needs to stay in tune with others in the team too!

[Alex]

Not too bad, considering this is a left-leaning pollster, that is always very sympathetic to Labour.

The Conservatives have still a lot to do, especially honing the key reasons why people need to vote for them.

After they have done this, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservatives hit 50%.

[john broughton]

635 approve the VAT cut - are they mad?

The net effect of the VAT cut is to allow retailers et al to reduce prices by X% with the taxpayer in general funding part of it - utter nonesense.

[john broughton]

Whoops should start 63%.

[YMT]

Well the last time we got this sort of lead we held back the attacks as the feeling was that it would be cruel and Brown would get sympathy for being the underdog and being bullied.

Things are now very different, the public is angry, and that anger is turning to hatred. This time there is no need to hold back any punches, Labour get all they deserve after what they've done. I would like to see some focus up north though, as it would be the cherry on the cake to gain ground up there and build on our non-existent base.

[The Bishop swine]

It's starting to look like Brown was unable to con the public with his reckless spending.
I suspect a lot of folk know people who have recently lost work. Whilst there is plenty of tax-payers money for the bankers (the new deserving poor it seems) JSA has not kept pace with inflation and is far from a decent benefit. There is also the new culture at the jobcentre plus which is treating newly unemployed people like gutter scum. The sooner we rid ourselves of these malignant pinko’s the better.

[T. England]

Another demoralising poll for Labour & our unelected leader :o)

[Fredrik Ingemarsson]

If this trend continues to the year 2010 the Labour Party could face a electoral wipeout in that mentioned year like the fate
John Major ` s Tories faced in 1997.

[Mapa]

calm down chaps, 32-42 take 3% either way
back to a hung parliment i.e Lab 35 - Con 39

get serious chaps/eses

[Mapa]

am i censored all I said was if the margin of error is included i.e. 3% lab up con down, plus a slight labour revival on con's spokepersons on the economy saying ...

lab 35 con 39 i.e. hung parliment!

[StevenAdams]

A great poll that shows the Cons ahead of the curve on the economy, with employment incentives, guaranteed loans, council tax freezes, borrowing, spending restraint, a waste watchdog, VAT deferment, lowering energy bills through meter/grid upgrades and more... this chat about not having policy should be stifled at source.

[Jon]

Mapa - you have used the incorrect margin of error - this is a Left/Labour leaning pollster

Read 47% Con, 29% Lab

... ie a wipeout

[Joe James B]

It's also a very difficult poll for the Lib Dems.
I understand ICM use an element of weighting by past vote which often gives the LDs a somewhat higher figure.

16% in an ICM poll is pretty dreadful for them aswell, which is very good news if we keep that up, because we can take a lot of seats off them.

[Gezmond007]

I think jon that maybe your a right wing leaning dreamer !

Nearly twelve years of labour and all the Tories can manage is a ten/fourteen points lead , that's not a wipeout more of a smudge !!

[m dowding]

Nearly twelve years of labour and all the Tories can manage is a ten/fourteen points lead , that's not a wipeout more of a smudge !!

Posted by: Gezmond007 | January 26, 2009 at 23:05

"Calm down my dear, it's only an opinion poll".

Be a wipe out at election time. Real out of work non-fiddled figure will be 9 million plus. Especially with The IMF sacking public workers. There won't be anyone else to sack, by 2010. Bl**dy Labour isn't working again!

[RichardJ]

Gezmond you are not funny.

[john]

Does Brown have no human feelings?
In his position, I'd be in intensive care and on suicide watch.

[Jon]

Gezmond - watch this space over the next few months.

[Yet Another Anon]

JSA has not kept pace with inflation and is far from a decent benefit.
The last JSA increase was based on the high point of inflation last year since which prices generally have mostly been steady or actually falling. It's uprated by the same index it was uprated by from the start, and you have to add on the adjusted power rates introduced for people on low incomes which amounts to an increase and which undermines the government's own environmental policy - power prices should be the same for everyone per unit irrespective of income.

Indeed in a recession there are arguments for cutting rates of welfare benefits as revenue falls and a higher rate relative to wages provides disincentives to find work. There were cuts in the 1920s and in 1931, in New Zealand in the mid 1990s there were across the board percentage cuts.

[Peter Harrison]

Alex - I can understand why you consider ICM to be a "left leaning" pollster, but Mike Smithson's analysis on politicalbetting.com suggests they are the most accurate predictor of elections. In part this is because they come up with a higher LibDem share, which tends to be nearer the truth.

YMT - there was an additional reason for holding back in that we didn't want Labour to replace him as a new leader might have got a bounce in the polls and gone for a quick election.

Mapa - no, you cannot treat a margin of error like that. It is highly unlikely that one party would be overestimated by the full MoE and another party would be underestimated by the full MoE.

The recent run of polls has been good. I think the next round of polls will show an even bigger lead. I am hearing a lot of anti-Brown jokes and comments from people who rarely say anything about party politics. I think we can be quietly confident about the next election but we must not be complacent.

[William]

The tories are not going to win the next election.
1). They need to capture 128 seats. They have never captured 128 seats at any election in their history.
2)If they were about to do so they would be 25 -30 points ahead by now. The best they can do is a mere 12. Given that the governing party nearly always gains about 5 points in an election year -the best they can hope for is a 6/7 point lead.
3). The bias in the electoral system means that the tories must be 9 points ahead to gain a majority of 1.
This makes it very unlikely that the tories will win in 2010.