The Tories are heading for a landslide victory

The second Brown bounce is well and truly over according to opinion polls. The punters have turned more strongly against Gordon Brown than at any time since Tony Blair left Downing Street.  Twittering yesterday I've gone on the record predicting a Tory majority of 100.

And the news just keeps getting worse and worse for Gordon Brown...

• In an echo of the cash-for-questions row that helped bring John Major down we learn this morning that "Labour peers are prepared to accept fees of up to £120,000 a year to amend laws in the House of Lords on behalf of business clients, a Sunday Times investigation has found."
• Meanwhile The Observer puts a price tag on the recession: "Every taxpayer in the country has lost almost £40,000 since the onset of the credit crunch, as plunging house prices and the savage sell-off in stock markets have obliterated £1.2 trillion of Britain's national wealth."
• The News of the World makes it more personal: "The average value of houses and flats is falling by £764 a week as prices continue to nosedive—yet the average pay packet is £479."

This is all deadly stuff for Brown.  He has thrown the taxpayers' kitchen sink at the recession but missed.  He's twice bottled the chance of an early election and he'll now head to the country with Britain mired in the worst recession of the developed world and voters facing big tax rises to pay off his eye-watering levels of borrowing.  His key lieutenants still lack any idea of how to sensibly attack David Cameron.  The reputation of David Miliband - the man once tipped as his party's saviour - is sinking faster than sterling.  Labour's misrule will end with a landslide defeat.

Of course there is no room for complacency and I see no signs of complacency in the Tory team.  The reshuffle produced a sharper team.  Eric Pickles is redoubling efforts against the Liberal Democrats.  I understand that candidates in target seats are about to face a new, tougher management regime.

I write all of this - not, I hope, for indulgent reasons - but because it should have implications for how the Conservatives conduct themselves from now on.  The Tory leadership cannot and should not, of course, take one single vote for granted but it must not repeat the mistakes of Tony Blair and arrive in Whitehall so ill-prepared.  Here are four immediate thoughts on behaviours that should characterise a 'government-ready' frontbench:

• No rushed policies. There is no need to make announcements that aren't thoroughly thought-through.  I'm thinking of badly-received schemes like the employment subsidy.
• The work of Francis Maude's preparation-for-government unit needs beefing up.  Does it have enough resources?  Just before Christmas one of the most senior members of the shadow cabinet told me that he had had no significant engagement with Mr Maude's team.  The success of this unit will have a big influence on our first term performance as a government.
• We need to think of using the likes of Peter Lilley, Stephen Dorrell, Michael Howard, John Redwood and others in government. We have been out of office for many years; as Labour had been in 1997.  People who have run Whitehall departments should be used to help new ministers with zero Whitehall experience.
• A relentless focus on a long-term vision for Britain's economic future. See here.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Sepoy Agent]

There were some good points in the original post, over 100 comments ago, about what the party still needs to do to be ready for winning that landslide election and taking government.
That will not be helped by the wholesale clear out of CCHQ before Christmas.
Some very good people have gone and will be much missed.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Martin Wright @ 21.44 - '...an absolute focus on delivery....'

I think that is a really common sense idea, and I hope that someone from CCHQ picks it up, because you are quite right about the sound-bites and 'announcements', even the news reporters are now beginning to say 'if'....., not the BBC of course!!!

On another topic - I thought that the House of Lords has a Labour majority now, due to Blairs manipulations????

[Tony the Tory]

Complacency is the dangerous factor now.

I know we are going to win our target seat but we never tell that to the foot soldiers because they might stop showing up as often.

We must not take the foot off of the gas and the front bench must turn the screw on Brown at every opportunity. It is widely thought that they backed off last year because they didn't want to see Brown deposed.

There should be no respite this time. We must go for the throat and send NuLab into civil war

[Alex Swanson]

"There is also no doubt at all that she would never willingly permit her subjects to be taken over by dictatorship and would do everything possible to prevent such an outcome."

You are naive. The UK is already a long way down that path and she's done nothing whatever.

There seems to be an idea about that there is a sharp transition between democracy and totalitarianism, that you can go to sleep in freedom and wake up under dictatorship, that the line is easily recognised and that there would be aciton taken if it was crossed. This isn't so. Study the history of the Communist takeover in Russia, or the Nazi takeover in Germany, and you find that it was done bit by bit, like boiling a frog, and that those who should have resisted never had a single moment when they had to say, "Thus far and no further".

There have been many moments in recent British history when politicians - especially the Conservative Party leadership - and the Queeen should indeed have said "Thus far and no further", but did and said nothing. There's no reason whatever to suppose that they would at any time in the future.

[Steve Foley]

To be honest, much as we do not like Brown and his Government I would very seriously doubt if he will try to extend his term by cancelling the General Election which will need to be called no later than June 2010. We have had our trip to Fantasy Island on this matter.

Back on terra firma I still feel that complacency is the worst enemy. Whilst it is enjoyable to see a large lead in the Opinion Polls, this can change quickly. Those who can remember the period 1966-70 will recall that from winning the Glasgow Pollok By-election in 1967 there were not only good Tory leads in the Polls but great successes in the Local Elections with many Cities and Boroughs, even normally safe Labour ones, having Tory Councils and some of the Parliamentary By-Election gains such as at Dudley, Oldham, Walthamstow were quite sensational. It looked like a Tory landslide was on the cards. Things started to come back to Labour in the Autumn of 1969 when 5 seats were contested on the one day but the Conservatives only gained Swindon and that narrowly. Some further by-elections in early 1970 were disappointing and the Opinion Polls showed a Labour Lead for the first time in a few years. The Local Elections were also good for Labour and as we know Wilson went to the country that June and up to Polling Day itself it looked as if he would hold on although Heath did win with a workable majority . Some attribute that win to England being knocked out of the World Cup in Mexico causing the feel-good factor that Wilson had engendered to break.

Now why the long history lesson? To illustrate how a big poll lead at this stage in a parliament can evaporate nearer the time of an election.

Enjoy the good news from the polls but do not slack off.

[Oberon Houston]

Some say we will win a bigger majority the longer Labour are in power. But, if, as I suspect, things are going to get economically very much worse, and, (say) we need to go to the IMF... Then a vote of no confidence is justified and necessary.

[Floreat Aula]

Tim - seems to me that the best way to use these senior former ministers and secretaries of state is to have a formal mentoring system, whereby they work with and mentor ministers, with a clear 'executive' focus - in other the bias should be towards helping ensure things get done

[Libbie Miller]

I WANT TO KNOW WHY THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE NOT DONE ANYTHING ABOUT THIS!

http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2009/01/i-am-no-longer-citizen-i-am-prisoner.html

http://raedwald.blogspot.com/2009/01/integrated-eu-blacklist-of-criminals-is.html

I AM FURIOUS. TELL ME, ARE YOU AS CORRUPT AS LABOUR AND JUST APPEAR TO BE BENIGN?

ARE YOU FIGHTING FOR A DEMOCRACY OR ARE YOU ANOTHER WOLF IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING!

[Northern Conservative]

David Cameron and his team should remember that it is not he that is winning the electoral race, but that it is Gordon Brown and his team that will hand him victory.

[walsall ladette]

Remember 1992 Labour were supposed to win and John Major was just a caretaker. Major won with the biggest vote a Prime Minister has ever had with a large turnout that has yet to be repeated (1997 turnout went down significantly) and this only translated into a 20 odd majority but a majority nonetheless.

In 1990 people disliked Thatcher but not the Tory Party so much, we changed the leader, had a fresh start and won. This would have happened to Labour had they gone in October 2007.

In 1997 people hated the Tory Party and anything and anyone associated with it. People either voted against us or did not bother to vote at all. People at the moment, it seems to me on the doorstep, strongly dislike this government but not necessarily Labour. (Although things could change if the sleaze continues)

If clever MP's and a clever Labour Party machine disassociate themselves with national issues, this is possible, and campaign locally and focus in their traditional areas against Tories there is still a chance that Labour can win or at least prevent an outright Tory victory. People when in crisis dislike change even more, better the devil you know that the devil you don’t. If a hung Parliament is the case I suspect Clegg would back Labour considering some of his comments about the Tories fundamental beliefs on the Andrew Marr show.

With the tough decisions that we will have to make we need to be sure of a landslide rather than just scrapping in with a few seat majority. We will need two terms to sort out the problems of this country and need to be sure that we can deliver two terms.

[The Bishop Swine]

Well it’s starting to look like this Election can be won. However there is still plenty of time for gaff's and for Labour to make the population fearful. See how much bringing that “nice” Ken Clark back has been instantly rewarded as many ex-conservatives return. I still think we need a clause 4 moment were we openly put Thatcher’s less palatable policies behind us. If we win its will be a victory for the Nation. Lets not loose site of the fact that we are all in this mess together. Those of us lucky enough to still have a job after the general election must resist the temptation to abandon the unemployed. I don’t want to hear anyone saying the “Unemployment is a price worth paying” or that the “Unemployed a lazy and do not want to work”, and please lets not suggest that people “get on their bikes”. Welfare reform will still be an important project but if we fail to deal with our people in a fair and humane way we can expect and will have deserved the civil unrest that will mark our 2nd summer in power. In short a victory for us will be a victory for the ONE NATION, our duty is to all of our citizens (our Queens lawful subjects) not just the lucky ones.

[Stephen Gash]

The Tories are only less unpopular than Labour. They are not popular.
Look at the recent Bexley election and see what could happen in the EU elections.
The English are looking to dump the Tories because the Tories offer no more for the English than do the Lib Dems or Labour.
Cameron has shown his disregard for England by making Ken Clarke oversee the English question, where he came up with even less than English votes on English laws, then he appointed Clarke to the Shadow Cabinet.
Cameron would see the end of England quicker than Brown.
The House of Lords should be changed to an elected UK government and the English be given their own parliament.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Walsall ladette @ 11.07 - I think you are right about Clegg! And did you notice - on the Marr Show - that he has had another makeover (from someone????) so that, at a glance he looks even more like a Cameron clone. This is designed to confuse, at the very least, or to deliberately mislead people who are not politically aware!

[Stephen Gash]

What has Cameron said about this?

http://www.regen.net/news/ByDiscipline/Economic-Development/login/875783/

[Jack Iddon]

I certainly hope we are returned at the next election with a good(at least)working majority but it will be the Tories, not Cameron that will be elected. I think the current lot will have made such a mess if it by then we would be elected regardless of our leader which of course Cameron is by election, and heaven knows by the time we get there a capable and firm hand will be needed at the tiller but sadly Cameron and cronies show little aptitude.

[Super Blue]

"The Tories are only less unpopular than Labour. They are not popular." - S.Gash.

I suppose that is why we have averaged 40% for the last year or two.

[Dave J]

Super Blue, please remember that per the usual rantings of some on here, being at "only" 40% is a disaster. The Tories should, of course, be 40% ahead, or 400%, or 4 gajillion percent. Or something. ;-)

[The Bishop swine]

"There is also no doubt at all that she would never willingly permit her subjects to be taken over by dictatorship and would do everything possible to prevent such an outcome."

Although in theory at least she has the right to be our "dictator" should she decide to dissolve parliament and rule the country herself. Unlikely I grant you and dangerous to her own person in this day and age. One thing I really want to see us do after our victory is to establish the very special relationship the Party has always had with the Crown. The Queen is head of our One Nation and our Anglican Church. It's up to us to bring back the kind of respect for the monarchy that used to be an important part of our Nations life. G.S.T.Q.

[Super Blue]

"Super Blue, please remember that per the usual rantings of some on here, being at "only" 40% is a disaster. The Tories should, of course, be 40% ahead, or 400%, or 4 gajillion percent. Or something. ;-)"

Quite, Dave J. They are usually supporters of other parties, of course.

[JP Floru]

I hope we will make a greater effort to explain the free market alternative to Keynesian folly in this economic crisis. I'm not sure we are trying hard enough - it is incredibly easy to explain how we can use non-big government solutions yet are we doing it?