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If the polls that Tim was referring to were correct then the Tories would be heading for a landslide,so I think you should forgive him that.
But certainly our leadership know from all their pronouncements that the deal is not yet sealed. I very much doubt that their will ever be a Sheffield rally event from the Conservative party. 3 massive defeats have taught most of us a bit of humility. The party will I hope never again be as smug as it became in the late '80's and early 90's.If it does it will lose, the electorate may be fickle (witness the huge changes in the polls over the last 18 months) but they are not fools.

If the Tories do lose the next election, in true Derren Brown stylee, I predict that the ConHome headline the day after will be;

"Ken costs us the election"

Much as it sticks in my craw to say it, ravy davy is doing a fairly good job of preventing the conservatives from appearing high handed or arrogant. So far he seems to be doing a good job of keeping the vast numbers of public figures in the conservative party in check.

So long as we dont have a big figure going "off message" or counter briefing policy we should do fine

A nice shower of cold common sense from Jonathan this morning - some of us did get a little over-excited on Tim's post on Saturday.

It's a particularly good point about the LibDem seats. Many of these are in the South-West and I think they are there for two reasons. The first is that this has always been a Liberal stronghold. The second is that the fishing industry has been devastated by the Common Fisheries Policy and the Tories, Edward Heath in particular, have been blamed for that - correctly in my view.

I would suggest that many votes in these areas would come over to us if David Cameron got a little further away from the fence upon which he frequently sits and made a clear committment to unilaterally withdraw from the CFP. That would also remove the rug from under UKIP which also make large inroads into natural Tory territory. UKIP are very strong in the South-West and in our constituency made the difference between keeping the Labour incumbent and returning a Conservative MP.

In the end, its not just about avoiding triumphalism that will win people over, it's about having the right policies.

Good to see that the editorial team is not afraid to disagree with each other. Very healthy for a good debate.

We were in "landslide territory" in the polls after Crewe & Nantwich last May. A lot happened and our lead narrowed to 4 points by November.

There is a long way to go until the election.

I agree with much of what you write Jonathan but my post on Sunday was careful to warn against complacency:

"Of course there is no room for complacency and I see no signs of complacency in the Tory team. The reshuffle produced a sharper team. Eric Pickles is redoubling efforts against the Liberal Democrats. I understand that candidates in target seats are about to face a new, tougher management regime."

My reason for writing what I did - and I do expect a landslide victory - was that there is no more need, for example, for hasty policy announcements. Policies must now be prepared for enactment not for tomorrow's newspapers. I actually believe that if the Conservatives look more and more like a Government-in-waiting to the electorate and less like an opposition-chasing-the-news then the prospects of a handsome Tory win will actually increase. I hope recent opinion polls give the Conservatives the reassurance to be able to behave so.

PS This won't be the first time Jonathan and I disagree. We sign all ToryDiary entries that aren't simple reportage now. ConHome isn't The Borg (Star Trek fans will know what I mean)!

By the time the next general election is called, New Labour's control over society and all areas of public life will be so tight that it will be practically impossible for the Conservatives to win.

I think that it will be an interesting election.

My reading is that the slump will continue throughout 2009 and 2010. And then any recovery will be slow and shaky. We already have incredible Government debt (and they've 18 months still to go).

So this will make for very bad headlines and that having steered the economy on to the rocks and spent a fortune trying to 'rescue' it, Brown is a busted flush and should be sent packing.

In addition, whilst we have UKIP to contend with, Labour has Nationalism in Scotland and Wales. These will be strong alternatives to Labour.

We must guard against arrogance and triumphalism though I think Cameron is far too sharp a cookie to do that anyway.

In recent weeks, we have raised our game. Highlight the shame and incompetence of Brown and his cronies and paint a positive vision. No magic wands just offer direction and hope.

Brown will have no answer to that...

Excellent and very well argued (and apposite) post from the Other Editor and some brilliant responses.

No election is won until close of poll, and although I'm not a RC there is a very appropriate saying "He who goes into the Conclave already the Pope emerges as a Cardinal" There's a lot of leaflets to go through letterboxes yet, a lot of doorsteps out there to visit and a lot of people to win over. At the moment they hate Stalinovitch McBroon but I don't think they love us yet. (Otherwise the local election results every Thursday would be better - they are at present a little worrying.)

We do need to show the SW Libs why they should vote for us and we need to guard against the threat of UKIP depriving us of winnable seats. (Don't forget - it's been argued that without the Referendum Party in 1997 Bliar would only have had a majority of 30 - 50, which is what he was expecting)

However, I must admit I'd rather look at these polls than those in 2001 or 2005.

Spot on. Why does this site keep veering from one perspective to the other? In autumn last year Tory Diary was arguing that Ossborne should go, everything was a disaster and that Labout would be ahead in the polls come the New Year. I think ConHome would be best served by more consistency in its analysis and less wild swings its views. This site often gives the impression of just blowing with the wind depending on the popularity stakes of the moment

Quite right. Although it maybe landslide territory, there is no guarantee it will always be like.

Remember - every seat counds and every vote counts. That should be the mantra for the next election. The optimism that comes with a healthy poll lead should make people work twice as hard, not rest on their laurels.


Don't forget that the BNP traditionally draw much of their support from Labour not from the Tories. They are generally pushing a nationalist socialist agenda.

George; On a matter of accuracy ConHome came to George Osborne's defence last year.

Eg here:


and here:


and here:


Must now go and do other work...

If the party is to win it will have to start putting a far better case than it is putting. People need to see a theme. To see how different the country would be under Cameron than it is under Brown.
The party will not win just by highlighting Labour`s failings it has to have a positive message itself.
It hasn`t really got that at present. It seems to react to everything at not be proactive and sell itself.

"Talk of a Tory landslide is premature and counterproductive"

Well, lets fervently hope the above is true. I would go a step further. I don't want the Conservatives or any other party to gain a monopoly of power after the next election, or at least the tiniest of working majorities would be OK
Each party is cosily wrapped up in the 'ring of stars' rag, so in effect we have a one party state:
The EU Conservative Party.
The EU Labour Party.
The EU Libdim Party.
No thanks!
Please, please tell me someone - what is the point of voting for any of these sycophantic nobodys?
Graham Wood (Enthusiastic supporter of the NOTA party - i.e. None of the Above.)

Raising the issue of re-taking the LD seats is key to victory. Tim calls them bindweed and he is right. I hope that their vote is really squeezed by a two party push. But we need both their setas and to reduce their size as we have at present one large and one medium sized block of anti-tory MPs that use up the media space. We need to reduce that and getting the LDs down below 30 should be a goal.

Alas under the previous Chairman initiatives like Coleshill have been dropped. Mr Pickles is wonderful, I hope that he continues for a few years and say a prayer for his health.

Tim is right: the Tories will be heading for a landslide, but the Conservatives in Britain will, apparently, lose.

I predict a Tory majority of 100, unless Cameron and Osborne screw the pooch. I wouldn't put it past them, but I wouldn't bet money on a hung parliament even.

Well said, Jonathan.
I live in a borough that lost two Conservative wards last May by very narrow margins simply because Tory voters took it as read that their candidate would win. No amount of urging could shake their complacency.

Complacency is never good, but you need to be listening to peoples concerns more. They need to know that you are going to tackle the issues that are important to them.

Another MOST important factor is unity. The papers are continually being plastered with Ken Clarke's opposing opinions to the party line. This is great ammunition for the opposition and they will exploit every word he says.

This makes a mockery of the leadership if it can't keep its people under control.

The party should be working for the maximum majority possible. Just that. If, in the event, someone calls it a landslide then so be it when and if it happens.

In the meantime just settle for the daily work of decisively destroying the credibility of Labour on all fronts.

On the constitutional front the Conservatives have a real problem and that is an out of date mindset which blocks out reality and thus prevents them seizing the massive opportunity of representing English desires for fairness and representation in a partly devolved UK.
Many in the party know there is great injustice against England and that this is a major underlying issue and yet the leadership appear still to be kidding themselves they can both win and ignore it all.

This is mad, both in that it cannot be ignored forever and that there is a huge opportunity here for the Conservatives.

There are probably still 15 months to go. Thus time to construct a narrative of what to do about English governance and a list of proposals and promises. Building on the 11 years of witnessing the Scottish referendum and government a promise should be made that an incoming Conservative government will hold a referendum in England as to whether or not England should have her own parliament and self government in a federal British state.

Integral to this is an acceptance that the people are a lot more politically sophisticated than in years gone by. Treat 'em fair and right and you might be pleasantly surprised by the results.
Ignore the issues and, even with a large majority, settle for the increasingly disreputable and discredited buggins turn mentality of British politics (which I suspect a number in the party are happy to do)
and a Conservative victory will soon turn to dust.

"(Don't forget - it's been argued that without the Referendum Party in 1997 Bliar would only have had a majority of 30 - 50, which is what he was expecting)"

The Conservatives won't get a landslide until they offer people a future. To make their pitch on the basis of being slightly less useless managers than the other lot , but with all the same policies they'll be lucky to get a majority and it will be apathy which will win them the day, just!

I also question if the Conservatives have learnt the lesson the EUsceptics dealt them, so far it would seem the party has given themselves an EUsceptic wash, but in light of the action of Conservatives Governments which ensured us in this EU nightmare, then it is going to take some substance and binding policies to buy the support of EUsceptics, whishy washy statement just won't do. The Conservatives also haven't learnt their lesson in regards to accommodating views over the English question, just as they ignored the views of EUsceptics they are in danger of opening a flank to that issue that will cost them seats and haemorrhage much needed support.

My old Grannie always used to say, "Pride comes before a fall!" So we have to keep working as hard as possible, and take nothing for granted to ensure a Conservative majority. Remember that built in bias towards Labour!!

I agree Iain @11:18.

It will be impossible to know what the Tory potential is until we know how they emerge from the Euro elections.

Also, and this is a completely unsubstantiated rumour sent to me so take it with a pinch of salt, but has anyone else heard anything about the Royal Mail currently actively making plans for UK euro coinage?

That is what I love about ConHom, you guys are similar to my parents; Tim is like my dad the eternal optimist (the glass is always half full kind of guy) and Jonathan you are like my mother, with mum it is always (great news but hold it! Don’t get carried away, we are not there yet, it might still go the other way and back fire on you ...prepare, prepare and fight like your life depends on it, and never ever take your eyes of the prize).
It is all about balance, we need the positive input, the optimism of ‘it looks like a win’ as much as the guarded and vigilant ‘wait a minute don’t celebrate until the last vote is counted’. The sensible politician knows to cautiously feel good about a positive poll, and analytically look at a negative one, but fight every battle like his existence depended on it.
Our front bench looks like a Government in waiting; our candidates are hungry for a win, the grass root knows what’s at stake. We have been out in the cold for too long to take our eyes of the prize and be nonchalant or blasé. However a positive poll every once and a while is like fuel to the fire. You are both right and that’s what makes you a great team and ConHom a grand read.

Being presumptuous is never a good idea as the British electorate don't like smug bast8*ds.

I am confident that were there an election tomorrow then we would win our target seat but we(the PPC and I) never tell that to the foot soldiers or the public. We simply say that we have every chance.

If we go about saying we will win by a landslide then my main fear is that the activists will take their collective foot off of the gas and we will lose seats that we ought to be winning. Instead of getting a 100+ majority, we get much less.

Take nothing for granted, leave no stone unturned. We need to keep our noses to the grindstone and don't look up until 10pm on 6th May 2010. That is the secret to winning this election!

Everyone needs to remember that the current poll lead is not because of anything much that we have done, it is because of what Labour have done or have not done; Labour have lost the support rather than it being actively taken by the Conservatives. We have been lucky so far but it is still all to play for and the Tories can still lose this election, especially if we continue to obsess about a green agenda that the electorate is rapidly losing interest in rather than focusing on the ever worsening recession.

Stating the obvious I know, but what matters is what happens on polling day. Sure, the recent Lords scandal has given the Tories a boost, but beware - there may be a few Conservative nasties coming out of the woodwork and you can be sure Labour will be doing their best to find them. Remember Conway - and he`s still an MP?

Past history has shown anything can happen and it probably will, so don`t write Brown off yet. The problem Mr. Cameron has is that while many are fed up with Labour, there is no great enthusiasm for him and his party. Or perhaps I`ve got it wrong?

The Conservatives also haven't learnt their lesson in regards to accommodating views over the English question, just as they ignored the views of EUsceptics they are in danger of opening a flank to that issue that will cost them seats and haemorrhage much needed support.

Sure, Iain, because thumping the tub of Euroscepticism in 2001 really helped win back support....

Europe is a non-issue for most people who are concerned about their jobs or looking for work. I would say that a clear majority of those who think Europe a priority are those wealthy enough or with secure jobs who have the luxury to worry about it - i.e. they're not target voter groups.

Focus on the economy and other bread-and-butter issues. Cameron and co should NOT get distracted on Europe.

Surely, there's no such thing as a sure thing. I've been surprised how quickly the comments have veered back towards predicting a landslide given the lessons to be learnt from the last few months. Mr Cameron evidently agrees -- hence the gamble on Kenneth Clarke.

Well I don’t think there is any harm in setting the bar high, and for the moment at least we remain on target for a Historic landslide victory. Of course we still have to convince the floating voters and we will have to deal with an increasingly aggressive Labour party machine determined to use every trick in the book to stay in power.
We will have to cope with everything from the Labour party stirring up fears of cuts, to claims that all Britain’s woe can be traced back to the miss rule of Margaret Thatcher.
It is for this reason that we need our equivalent of a clause 4 moment. The sooner we spell out once and for all, our commitment to the concept of “THE ONE NATION”, the sooner we can start to prepare for the monumental task of rebuilding this country, after the mismanagement of the last 45+ years. We not only need to draw a line under nu-labour, but also face up to the publics disgust with almost every post war administration. To achieve the landslide we will have to convince ourselves first and the public after, that we intend to rule Britain in a Fair and just manner, without the corruption that has undermined the publics confidence in politicians in general.

What an interesting thread. Very salutory comments, Jonathan.

We all hope that recovery will start soon and there are a few (very few) glimmerings of hope. When that does start, Gordon Brown is going to claim that it is all down to him and voters might believe him. He generally takes the credit and passes the blame.

I believe David Cameron needs to be more positive in his attacks on Brown and state some of the things the conservatives would have done. He could state that, as the tripartite regulatory system set up by Brown so clearly failed, he will restore to the BoE the oversight of all the banking system.

He could point out that, contrary to what Brown frequently claims, inflation has not been low (it has been over 10% for many people) but Brown's change of index kept it artificially low, thus making cheap credit readily available which led to the housing boom - and bust!

He could compare the differences between George Osborne's guaranteed loan scheme with the government's in order to demonstrate that the conservatives are not "a do nothing party".

Cameron must also correct Brown's assertion that public debt in the UK is lower than in America and elsewhere. It only is if you conveniently ignore off-balance sheet items. I expect lots of people would like to do the same with their mortgages - "oh, no, I have bought a house but as I pay for it over 30 years, it doesn't really count as a debt!"

Landslide victory? Perhaps. Pyrrhic victory for certain.

How many pressure cookers have we got on the boil currently, hissing and squeaking and ready to pop the safety valves?

We are plunging into terrible times and we blame Labour for no anticipation or preparation and yet we can predict how the global depression will play out but we do nothing to prepare for the consequences. We are afraid of even identifying the consequences because daring to articulate the looming, multiple, threats to our nation is no longer the business of politics.

The Tories are ahead in the poles because the Labour Government has imploded rather than due the any marked enthusiasm for the Cameroons and their opaque policies. Furthermore, there is no perceptible Conservative revival in Scotland and the North of England and UKIP will rise again in the public consciousness as we move towards the EU Parliament elections in June.

It seems to me that a Tory Government would not be significantly different for the current Labour Government, certainly on the most important issues we face (the economy, energy, education and defence) so I shall continue to work to undermine the cosy consensus of the political class.

David Eyles @ 9.45 makes excellent points about the strength of the LibDems in the SW - also recognised by Eric Pickles who has made Cornwall his first point of call.

To win in Devon and Cornwall Cameron must take a robust stand on the CFP - black and white - the UK will pull out - and give dates.

Even were he to do that, which seems unlikely, it may still be an uphill struggle to win those seats back with Cameron's well known weakness on the EPP. Can he be trusted?

Add to fishing local strong views on wind farms and DC is in trouble. The windmill on his house will not have escaped notice.

No I think the SW may yet be a step too far for the Conservatives.

Where Tim Montgomerie is spot on is with his recommendation that the Conservatives behave like the next Government not a headline chasing opposition party.

A landslide or not it is important that our Party's leadership looks as though they are ready for government and avoid all shallowness.

I'm starting to see a bit of tactical voting intention from Lib Dems on the doorstep - in our favour for once (in Tory/Lab constituencies). It's crucial not to get complacent with talk of a landslide. We need lots of Lib Dems to vote tactically, and many will only do that if they think it's close.

Whilst we should not be complacent, we should do all in our power to further the collective nervous breakdown sweeping the Labour Party and the left.

Their emotional state is as much driven by the thought of an impending wipeout as anything else.

That means broadening and deepening our support across the country so that even Labour MPs in notionally safer Labour seats begin to fear the future.

Should Labour and the Lib Dems face a 1997 style electoral apocalypse? Absolutely yes. Are they? Not yet.

" UKIP will rise again in the public consciousness as we move towards the EU Parliament elections in June."

Oh David, David...Just when I thought we were achieving a True Meeting of Minds you revert to type! My disappointment knows no bounds (and my fear for the disappointment I know you are bound to suffer on 5th June (actually on the 8th when the results are known..))!

Excellent and very well argued (and apposite) post from the Other Editor and some brilliant responses.

No election is won until close of poll, and although I'm not a RC there is a very appropriate saying "He who goes into the Conclave already the Pope emerges as a Cardinal" There's a lot of leaflets to go through letterboxes yet, a lot of doorsteps out there to visit and a lot of people to win over. At the moment they hate Stalinovitch McBroon but I don't think they love us yet. (Otherwise the local election results every Thursday would be better - they are at present a little worrying.)

We do need to show the SW Libs why they should vote for us and we need to guard against the threat of UKIP depriving us of winnable seats. (Don't forget - it's been argued that without the Referendum Party in 1997 Bliar would only have had a majority of 30 - 50, which is what he was expecting)

However, I must admit I'd rather look at these polls than those in 2001 or 2005.

What did I do to get my early-morning comment re-posted??? Apologies, everyone - gremlins in the wonderful Bill Gates box.

COme back Acorn, all is forgiven.

It is always governments that lose elections not oppositions that win them. cf 1979, 1997, 1964, 1970
On that front Brown is doing a great job.

It shouldn't be forgot that 116 gains are needed just for a majority of one seat (using the new notional figures). That's a lot of seats to gain in a single election. In 1997 Blair managed 146 gains in total, when the Conservative vote fell by 11.4% from 42.8% to 31.4% (GB figures). It looks like the Labour vote is not going to fall by that amount at the next election because they only polled 36% in 2005. Ignoring the notional results, the Conservatives currently have 197 MPs; they need 326 for a majority. So I think it's right to be very cautious about talking about a landslide.

I think 1970 (along with Feb 1974) is the exception which proves the rule. Wilman was doing very nicely until Heath came up with "We will break into the price and wages spiral at a stroke" and wrenched the election from Labout (Admittedly, the defeat in the World Cup probably didn't do HW much good, but that can hardly be said to be the Government losing the election, Unless Harold was responsible for Gordon bank's tummy upset!)

Similarly in Feb 1974 Heath was doing quite well on a "Who Governs Britain" platform and even just before election day the polls were predicting a Con victory. However Wilson forced the election onto matters as a whole.

Tory poll lead, blah blah blah.

Believe in a Tory victory when it actually happens, and not a moment before. By the time of the 1997 Labour victory, it had been inevitable for four and a half years, twice as long as anyone had ever heard of Tony Blair.

But pretending that the Tories matter is the only thing that keeps anyone at all voting Labour, never mind leafleting for them or what have you.

And even if the Tories did win, so what? Ken Clarke (in his seventies) as Chancellor. James Purnell as Works and Pensions Secretary. Andrew Adonis as Education Secretary.

What is anyone getting worked up about? Why does anyone care in the least?

"Sure, Iain, because thumping the tub of Euroscepticism in 2001 really helped win back support...."

Well Raj I look forward to seeing the electoral success the Conservatives would achieve running a Clarke EUphile campaign.

So a poll comes out & it shows that the Tories are kicking Labours bum, Tim pointed out that on the results shown it could be a landslide victory, um! So was he just stating the obvious, coming over all premature, getting a bit flash or all three?
I don’t care!
I want a pick me up when I come here, I want to read how fantastic the Tories are doing & I don’t want to see any apologies being made for it.
On the other hand, when I see Cameron out there talking to the public I want to see a quietly confident man who hopes that the public see him as the man to fix all their woes.

As a newbie to this site, but a blog commentator for over three years I have seen enough of the Tories being all down trodden & I’m tied of that crap, I understand there is nothing worse than someone taking you for granted & I’m sure Cameron knows that only too well, but if we can’t get all carried away, if only briefly, on here now & then, then I’m not sure what’s the point of having this site!

Don’t stop will ya? :o)

Lindsay Jenkins and David Eyles,
Of course, almost everyone would agree that we should leave the obscene CFP, but I am sure that you both know as well as Cameron does that the only way we will ever be able to achieve this is by withdrawing from the EU itself. This is clearly why he dropped this idea, since both he and Hague have repeatedly stated that they would never, under any circumstances, consider leaving the EU.
Both pro and anti EU commentators on this blog have frequently stated that the Conservative policy with regard to the EU is "settled" so can somebody please explain EXACTLY what this means? For Cameron certainly won't.

By the time of the next election the Lisbon Treaty will almost certainly have been ratified(by bribery and duress)by the remaining signatories, so a referendum over that will no longer be an inconvenient hurdle for Cameron to jump. Renegotiation of the individual terms of a state's membership, never a realistic possibility even under the terms of the previous treaties, will become even more impossible. Whilst supporters of Lisbon claim that this will grant a right of withdrawal from the EU to individual member states, this right already exists under both international law and previous EU treaties and all that Lisbon will do is to establish the EU's right to impose conditions, including (as yet unspecified)sanctions and financial penalties for withdrawal.

The prime objective of the Lisbon Treaty, as is openly admitted (boasted) by the leaders of the majority is to speed up the process of "ever closer political union" leading finally to a Federal European state. If that is the will of the British people, expressed in a referendum, then fine, those of us who believe in what little may be left of democracy in Britain would be bound to accept that decision.

But, if we elect a new Government which claims to be eurosceptic, without specifying what this means, and, without offering us any choice, submits to the relentless march towards EU federalism, we will have no one but ourselves to blame.

To be fair to Cameron, however, so far as the EU is concerned he does not have many options, other than to declare that he no longer rules out withdrawal as an option and that he will offer a referendum upon this before signing any further treaties.

" obscene CFP, but I am sure that you both know as well as Cameron does that the only way we will ever be able to achieve this is by withdrawing from the EU itself. "

Why, the EU arbitrarily changes the rules when ever it sees fit, even two timing the electorate, so why can't we? Its only a matter of doing it. Oh the bureaucrats will kick up an almighty stink for upsetting their nicely ordered world, but that what bureaucrats always do, 'Oooo the Barbarians are at the gate' , 'the world is coming to an end' they will cry, but they are all bluff, and if you face them off and tell them to get on a do it they will with a bit of muttering of decent. So lets not have any of this having to leave the EU, just doctor a treaty or two, they do it all the time, its just a matter of will. So the question really comes down to if Cameron's Conservatives have the desire or will?

The only election that counted recently, where it was a straight Labour/Tory fight, was in London in May 2008. The Lib-Dem vote was squeezed so hard that Brian Paddick's eyes almost popped out.

I said at the time that this was because: 1) we had a real chance of winning and, 2) it was close. Because of that people didn't either stay at home, or vote for a "protest" party, because their vote wouldn't matter. These scenarios are applicable either in a certain win or a certain loss scenario which in part explains the low turnouts of '97, '01 and '05. The last time a General Election was like that was 1992.

But this cuts both ways. Livingstone's vote was up substantially, but ours went up more. Things were slightly different in Crewe three weeks later, where the candidate was less independent and more "Labour", so the grumpy, not voting for you lot, attitude didn't help them there and I don't think it will help Brown in a General.

So the lesson is what? Present your fight as a close fight if you're up against Labour - it almost certainly will be closer than you think - and if you're up against the Lib-Dems, present the national fight as a close fight. I suspect that will be the case as well.

Gird up your loins Iain, gather up your spears and arrows and I will gladly follow you into the fray, but, hang on a moment, who do we attack? better check where the EU Parliament is sipping their champagne, or shall we have a go at the Commisars themselves? (in which case we will need rhinocerous piercing weapons.

"or shall we have a go at the Commisars themselves?"

Perhaps first gather up an army, the EU Parliament has just put forward a motion to bring Sea Angling under the CFP control, now may be it has passed by our so called representatives but there are one hell of a lot of Anglers here and the EU's desire to meddle has just given the anglers and commercial fishermen common cause. As such there might just be a whole load more votes for getting rid of the CFP than politicans realise.

How hard do some people find it to keep on topic?!
Why has this thread turned into an EU thread? YAWN!
On second thoughts I don’t want to know, bored already!

To John Moss @ 20.32 – I totally agree with you and would like to add a 3rd - people (Londoners) where really and truly feed up with Livingston and wanted rid of him, and fast. They did not want 4 more years of his divisive communist befriending dictator hugging abusive business. In addition to that campaigners on the door step where wasting no time in pointing out that it was close, very very close and every vote counted its weight in gold.
If we fight the coming election the same way we fought last May in unseating Livingston, it will be a night to remember. The alternative does not bear thinking of.

Complacency costs votes. We will still need a RECORD swing in our favour to get even a majority of one.

A landslide is unlikely, but with a breakthrough in the West Midlands and the North West, which 2008 indicated, a majority of 25-35 seats is a reasonable bet.

There will remain a distortion as our vote tends to be rather concentrated, whereas Labour have low turnouts in safe seats, and since around 1990, have got better at spreading their vote wide but not very deep.

But I don't believe we need an 11 point extrapolation lead to get a majority of 1.
If the Tories were around 40 or more, the electoral system would tilt back towards them with less tactical voting, and a 7 point lead should suffice.

It's important to crush the Lib Dem vote as low as possible aswell, otherwise extra gains from Labour would be needed. I don't think there'll be a landslide because opinions will be quite polarised about the economy - those who want a new approach vs those who want to cling to a statist role.

People aren't enthsiastic about the Tories - just fed up with Labour and miserable and scared by the economic climate.

I am a very left wing person and used to be a loyal Labour supporter.
I will not be voting for conservative per se but rather against Labour.

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