ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

That hush is the sound of unity

It wouldn't have happened a few years ago.  The airwaves would have been full of unhappy Tories complaining at the return of Ken Clarke.  I certainly had my media opportunities yesterday but, although I opposed Mr Ken Clarke's return, David Cameron deserves loyalty now a decision has been made.  I certainly hope Ken succeeds in helping the party achieve a still stronger economic message.  The only voice raised against Ken Clarke's return has been that of former Tory MP Barry Legg.  He has written for The Guardian's Comment is free this morning and, to be fair, issues some pertinent cautions.

Why aren't the airwaves full?  Why have the 41% of Conservatives opposed to Clarke's return shrunk to 22% overnight?  Why are those 22% so quiet?  Rachel Sylvester suggests in The Times that the Conservative Party has finally put ideological purity behind it and is now focused on winning power.  It's also true that David Cameron was careful to reassure rank-and-file Tories with the elevation of Eurosceptic Mark Francois.  Affirming William Hague's Deputy status and big promotions for grassroots favourites Eric Pickles and Chris Grayling were other signs that the confrontational side to David Cameron's leadership - shown during the grammar schools row - is over.  These very grim times also focus minds.  Two recent opinion polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, suggest that the second Brown bounce is well and truly over.  Tory prospects for an extended period in government haven't been so good for a generation.  They are as good as the inheritance will be awful.

Tim Montgomerie

Graphic created by 'Obamicon me'. Obamify yourself here!

Grassroots give a big thumbs up to the reshuffle

1,087 members voted in this survey which we put into the field at 3.30pm yesterday afternoon.

There's a big welcome for David Cameron's three biggest appointments.

The net approval for Ken Clarke's appointment is particularly interesting.  When we asked in December if members wanted Ken back we got a fairly narrow 50% to 41% 'yes vote'.  That has widened markedly now with just 22% disappointed at the decision now that it has been made.

Members are evenly divided however on the new Shadow Business Secretary's impact on the party's European policies.  37% fear that he will "block any moves towards more Euroscepticism" and 39% think he won't.

Other survey findings are very positive:

• 76% agree that "the shadow cabinet is now punchier, readier for battle";
• 75% agree that "the economic policy team is much strengthened";
• 71% agree that "Grayling, Pickles and Clarke protect the party leadership from Labour's 'Tory Toffs' attack";
• Only 26% agree that "the reshuffle shifts the party somewhat towards the Left".

Tory members are also relaxed about the Obama effect.  On a forced choice question:

• 62% agreed that "President Obama will have no big effect on British politics";
• 24% agreed that "President Obama's representation of change will help Cameron politically";
• Only 14% agreed that "President Obama's fiscal stimulus package will help Brown politically".

Ipsos Mori poll gives Tories a 14% lead

The Ipsos-MORI January Political Monitor has been published tonight and puts the parties on the following percentages:

Comparisons are with the equivalent poll in December.

The fieldwork saw 1,005 adults interviewed between Friday and Sunday.

Are you pleased that Eric is Chairman? Has Ken's return blunted the party's Euroscepticism? Will President Obama help Brown or Cameron?

Click here to take the 'reshuffle reaction' survey.

The shadow cabinet has more punch but less reform

Ten observations on today's shadow cabinet reshuffle:

1. The economic team has been considerably strengthened: ...but there must be a danger that Clarke will eclipse George Osborne (certainly in terms of media bids). As Mike Smithson blogs: "The Tories can now say that the Chancellor who left Britain in such good shape can help put things back together again."
2. The party has a punchier communications team: Grayling replacing Grieve, Pickles replacing Spelman, Francois displacing Lidington all adds up to an earthier feel. Will Woodward is calling it Andy Coulson's reshuffle; "a definite shift to the tougher talking, plain-speaking elements in the Tory parliamentary party". Benedict Brogan is calling it "pub ready". Francois is a key ally of George Osborne and will strengthen the Shadow Chancellor's hand but can he now deliver EPP exit?  It was clearly prescient of Jonathan to make him his "One to Watch" in 2009 as he is the only middle-ranking spokesman to have been promoted to the top table. Promoting the eurosceptic Europe spokesman to the shadow cabinet will also act as a foil to those concerned about the European views held by Ken Clarke.
   
3. We must worry about a shift away from reform: (1) Despite the reassurances, Ken Clarke will be a roadblock against any further Euroscepticism from David Cameron. (2) Serious reform of the ECHR is also unlikely now that Grieve has ousted Herbert at Justice.  (3) Theresa May is not known as a welfare reformer but time will tell. James Forsyth has the same concern. We'll write more tomorrow about what this reshuffle means for the Tory Right.
4. The musical chairs were well executed: If reshuffle speculation had been allowed to run out of control since Christmas the actual reshuffle was executed quickly and effectively. Last night's briefing of the Clarke move worked particularly smoothly. The reshuffle of junior ranks should be complete later today.
5. The appointment of Eric Pickles: His promotion to the party chairmanship was what ConHome readers asked for last week and his record as a campaigner bodes well for the run-up to the general election. Also good to have another straight-talking Northerner in one of the senior posts.
6. Surprise of the reshuffle: Jeremy Hunt didn't get CCHQ.
7. Better Off Outers? Dan Hannan makes a good point; if Clarke can serve on frontbench whilst supporting Lisbon it's time to allow Better Off Out supporters to serve on the frontbench too.
8. Advice for Peter Ainsworth: Take your deep belief in green issues and form a think-tank of the kind IDS has used to argue for a socially just Conservative Party. The party has no green think tank and you could make it happen.
9. The accuracy of Michael Howard's political antennae: The first three members of the 2001 intake he promoted to his shadow cabinet were Cameron, Osborne and Grayling, who now hold the biggest three jobs in the Shadow Cabinet.
10. A boost for the pro-hunting lobby: Nick Herbert played a key role in the founding of the Countryside Movement - now the Countryside Alliance - so he seems a good pick for rural affairs.His appointment would suggest that David Cameron is serious about appealing to the hunting lobby.

Confirmation of all changes to the Conservative frontbench

CCHQ has now confirmed all the changes that have been made to the frontbench.

New to the Shadow Cabinet:

The Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke QC MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (replacing Alan Duncan)

Mark Francois MP
Shadow Minister for Europe (same job, but now with shadow cabinet status)

New Shadow Cabinet responsibilities:

Alan Duncan MP
Shadow Leader of the House of Commons (replacing Theresa May)

Chris Grayling MP
Shadow Home Secretary (replacing Dominic Grieve)

The Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Justice (replacing Nick Herbert)

Nick Herbert MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (replacing Peter Ainsworth, who departs the front bench)

The Rt Hon Theresa May MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Shadow Minister for Women (replacing Chris Grayling)

Eric Pickles MP
Chairman of the Conservative Party (replacing Caroline Spelman)

Caroline Spelman MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government (replacing Eric Pickles)

NB With Mark Francois promoted to shadow cabinet, foreign affairs team member David Lidington will no longer attend shadow cabinet meetings, but he will remain in place as an extremely well-regarded member of William Hague's team.

Other changes to front bench appointments:

Richard Benyon MP (previously a whip)
Shadow Minister for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

Crispin Blunt MP (previously a whip)
Shadow Security Minister (within Shadow Home Affairs Team)

David Evennett MP (previously a whip)
Shadow Minister for Innovation, Universities and Skills

Justine Greening MP (previously Shadow Treasury Minister)
Shadow Minister for Communities & Local Government

Greg Hands MP (promoted from the backbenches)
Shadow Treasury Minister

John Penrose MP (promoted from the backbenches)
Shadow Minister for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform

Bill Wiggin MP (previously Shadow Minister for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs)
Whip

Rob Wilson MP (previously Shadow Minister for Innovation, Universities and Skills)
Whip

NB Scouring the full lst of the frontbench just issued by CCHQ, it would seem the only person to be leaving the lower ranks to return to the back benches is Jacqui Lait, who was previously a spokesman on the Communities, and Local Government team. Jacqui resigned of her own volition after ten years on the front bench to create an opportunity a younger colleague (Justine Greening).

Reshuffle Live blog Part II

1530: Ken Clarke takes his place on the frontbench alongside David Cameron and George Osborne in the chamber this afternoon:

1515: Paul Waugh at the Evening Standard lists some names moving in the junior ranks:

• Justine Greening gets promotion to number 2 slot at Communities and Local Govt;
• Richard Benyon gets Shadow Defra,
• Crispin Blunt gets shadow security,
• David Evennett gets Shadow DIUS,
• Greg Hands joins the Treasury team
• John Penrose gets shadow business beat
• Bill Wiggin and Rob Wilson join the whips.

1445: Just noticed that in a post this morning Andrew Porter reported that Edward Garnier will be shadow attorney general - which turned out not to be the case. It will remain Dominic Grieve.

1330: A smooth reshuffle wasn't quite perfect (from conservatives.com):

1250: Iain Dale reports that Michael Fallon turned down the chance to serve on the Treasury team in favour of remaining on the treasury select committee.

1225: With Mark Francois promoted to shadow cabinet, we have confirmation that his fellow foreign affairs team member David Lidington will no longer attend shadow cabinet meetings, but he will remain in place as an extremely well-regarded member of William Hague's team.

1130: Confirmation of all Shadow Cabinet changes from CCHQ on this ToryDiary thread

1130: Sky report that among the reshuffling, shadow Europe minister Mark Francois is being promoted to the shadow cabinet.

1127: CCHQ releases statements from David Cameron and Ken Clarke on Clarke's return to the frontbench. Read them on the reaction to Clarke's appointment thread.

1124: Nick Herbert confirmed as shadow Defra secretary.

1118: Theresa May confirmed as new shadow work and pensions secretary.

1114: BBC - Alan Duncan is shadow leader of the Commons.

1112: Unconfirmed rumours of Chris Grayling taking Home Affairs, Dominic Grieve moving to Justice and Nick Herbert to Defra

Material from earlier in the morning is on this live blog

• Justine Greening gets promotion to number 2 slot at Communities and Local Govt;
• Richard Benyon gets Shadow Defra,
• Crispin Blunt gets shadow security,
• David Evennett gets Shadow DIUS,
• Greg Hands joins the Treasury team
• John Penrose gets shadow business beat
• Bill Wiggin and Rob Wilson join the whips.

Eric Pickles is new Party Chairman

Eric Pickles is being appointed Conservative Party chairman in today's reshuffle, news which we greet warmly.

We presume readers will too, since he was your choice for the job in our survey last week.

Caroline Spelman will remain in the shadow cabinet, though in which post we do not yet know.

The Tory reshuffle (live blog)

1112: Live blog continues here

1107: Theresa Villiers remains shadow transport secretary.

1103: Latest Speculation from James Forsyth at Coffee House: Spelman and Duncan to move within Shadow Cabinet. "Other rumours doing the rounds at the moment are that Dominic Grieve will be moved to Justice and Nick Herbert to a frontline job, either Work and Pensions or DCLG. There's also speculation that Andrew Mitchell will move back to domestic portfolio".

1057: Confirmation reaches us that Peter AInsworth has been sacked.

1045: CONHOME EXCLUSIVE: ERIC PICKLES IS NEW PARTY CHAIRMAN

1035: Iain Dale reports rumours of a promotion for Justine Greening and that Peter AInsworth looks set to be sacked, having cancelled his engagements.

0945: Ken Clarke statement: "It is going to be a historically important election, and I don't want to sit on the sidelines - I want to be out on the pitch fighting for the change Britain needs. I have thought carefully about returning to frontline politics. I am doing so because this country faces a very serious situation - the gravest economic crisis I have known in my lifetime."

0945: Doorstepping Sky video of David Cameron's claim that Tories now have best economic team in Britain:

0937: The Sun is speculating that Chris Grayling may replace Dominic Grieve.  Just speculation mind you.

News of moves in the reshuffle will appear here as they emerge...

Tim Montgomerie will also be Twittering news:

Osborne backs Labour's "trillion pound bailout"

Interviewed on the Today programme George Osborne said that the Government had run out of options and has little choice but to underwrite the so-called toxic assets of the British banking sector.

Ahead of announcements from the Government expected later today, which will see further steps towards full-scale banking nationalisation, the Shadow Chancellor said that he didn't like what was happening but he saw no alternative.

He criticised Labour for being "distracted" by the VAT cut when energies should have been focused on the real issues of the banking crisis and the continuation of the credit crunch.  He called for a full and independent audit of Britain's banks so that taxpayers had a true understanding of the nature of banks' liabilities.

John Redwood MP, writing on his blog, is far from convinced that Labour needs to act today in the way that it is.  He calls for a radical climming down of RBS; including the sale of its insurance and manufacturing divisions, a reversal of the "foolish acquisition" of ABN Amro, and the sale of the US Citizens Bank.  Mr Redwood concludes:

"There is no need to panic today. The falling share price does not undermine the bank. The depositors are not in a panic as they assume the government stands behind them and the bank has substantial liquid assets. What needs to happen is the production of some sensible figures on the current state of the loans, and some active management of the bank to cut our risks. We need to see a string of disposals of the non banking interests and the overseas banks. We need some serious cost cutting starting with the top executives pay. We need some intelligent new UK lending to re start the business."

> Andrew Lilico on CentreRight: "Why neither loans nor recapitalisation nor underwriting is going to correct matters."

First reactions to the return of Ken Clarke

Most reactions to Ken Clarke's return on last night's thread were positive.  The same is true of reactions from bloggers and commentators.  Arranged below are key arguments.

The economic times are so serious that David Cameron is correct to bring such a successful former Chancellor back to the frontbench: "The world has changed, and if in response to the resulting tumult Barack Obama can do a deal with Mrs Clinton and Gordon Brown can rediscover his friendship with Peter Mandelson, then surely the Tories should be able to bury the hatchet (in their opponents rather than each other) in order to turf out Labour?" - Iain Martin

His time as Chancellor remains respected (even to The Independent): "His tenure at the Treasury remains highly regarded – something that cannot be said of all former Chancellors."

 Ken Clarke can make complex economic issues understandable: "He may also be the Tories' Vince Cable. What Cable does is talk about economics in clear English - not using Brown's jargons, nor the soundbites Osborne often uses. To Clarke, economics is easy - and, like Cable, he makes it sound easy. It has been a joy listening to him on the economy recently." - Fraser Nelson

Clarke's pro-European views may create tensions: "Mr Clarke's pro European views - in particular, his support for Britain scrapping the pound and joining the Euro - have alienated him from the mainstream of his party. The issue of Europe is still a live one since some now argue that the current economic crisis demonstrates the case for the Euro. Also, the Tories are opposed to the Lisbon EU Treaty which Clarke has backed and they are committed to holding a referendum on it which could lead to a Cameron-led government Britain re-negotiating Britain's relationship with the EU." - Nick Robinson

Ken's European views will be submerged within his acceptance of shadow cabinet responsibility: "To those Tories who recoil in horror at the return of Ken Clarke, I'd say this. Few of us agree with his views on Europe, but they should not be allowed to colour the fact that he is a big hitter and is very popular with people who are either soft Tories or not Tories at all. He will have to abide by the same collective responsibility as the Shadow Cabinet and will know that." - Iain Dale

The Conservatives have invited a very loose cannon into their highest ranks: "Mr Clarke has always said precisely what he thought on matters relating to the EU, having appeared on platforms with his political opponents to the detriment of the Conservative Party and to the embarrassment of the Leader. Indeed, he even favours a coalition with the europhile Liberal Democrats, and has publicly said so. He is a loose cannon, and regularly defies the Party whip with impunity: indeed, his voting record identifies him as a rebel." - Cranmer

Clarke's return is a boost to those who wish to see the Tories form a deal with the Liberal Democrats: "Let's not forget that Clarke sees coalition with the Lib Dems as a good thing. As he told me three years ago "I'm glad to say the fates could condemn the Conservatives and the Liberals to form a coalition." - Fraser Nelson

And finally... a Conservative MP emailed me this cartoon from 1993.  No further comment necessary:

Tim Montgomerie

Ken Clarke returns... as Shadow Business Secretary

Tory sources have confirmed that Ken Clarke is returning to the Tory frontbench.

As we predicted last week, the Tory reshuffle has been brought forward and other announcements will be made tomorrow, probably all finalised by lunchtime. 

Mr Clarke will be Shadow Business Secretary.  He will replace Alan Duncan who is being offered a different "senior role".

CCHQ is briefing that it was in December that George Osborne first suggested a frontbench role for the former Chancellor and thrice-defeated leadership candidate.  The Telegraph's Andy Porter got there first in terms of media speculation.  That was when the Conservatives were faltering in the polls and Mr Clarke's return was seen as a quick route back to economic credibility.

Over lunch yesterday (Saturday) George Osborne, David Cameron and Ken Clarke met to agree terms.  That it was Osborne rather than Hague at the meeting confirms that it is the Shadow Chancellor who is the real Deputy Leader.

Mr Clarke has accepted that the Tory position on Lisbon, the EPP and the Euro is settled.  He won't attempt to change party policy but neither will he change his views.  His focus, says the spin, will be 100% on his new portfolio and the interests of British business.

David Cameron has gambled that any internal unhappiness at Mr Clarke's return will be smothered by the renewed Conservative strength in the opinion polls - now 13% ahead according to YouGov.  Mr Clarke brings immediate media firepower to the Tory frontbench.  Any announcement from his office will attract media attention but you can expect lots of 'Clarke overshadows Osborne' stories to come from mischievous sections of the press.

ConservativeHome opposed Mr Clarke's return but a plurality of grassroots members (50% to 41%) supported a comeback.

Tim Montgomerie

Has Theresa Villiers subtly shifted Tory aviation policy today?

Just a couple of months ago, Theresa Villiers explicitly distanced herself and the party from Boris Johnson's ideas about an airport in the Thames estuary.

In a letter to a Lib Dem MP, the shadow transport secretary wrote:

"With regard to media debate on the possibility of a new airport in the Thames Estuary, this is not an option at which the Conservative party is looking. Boris Johnson is considering a range of ideas relevant to transport and aviation links to our capital city but this is his own initiative."

Yet today, on the BBC Politics Show, whilst repeating her opposition to the third runway at Heathrow - a position she shares with Boris - asked if she would look into any of Boris's aviation proposals, she said:

"It is vital we stop this runway at Heathrow... but we support aviation in general. Of course we should look at all the options."

Do I detect a softening of the line?

Jonathan Isaby

Hague repeats Cameron's messages on the reshuffle

In advance of an imminent shadow cabinet reshuffle, widely expected to take place this week - maybe even tomorrow - William Hague has taken to the airwaves to repeat several of the messages that David Cameron has put out during the last week, namely:

• Hague is David Cameron's de facto deputy - and has been for three years
• Ken Clarke is effectively "already back"

Here's what Mr Hague said on Sky News this morning (quotes taken from PoliticsHome.com):

"I have been doing the deputy role for three years, what David Cameron was talking about was making that more public. I have never known a more cohesive team, with David Cameron, George Osborne and I working together, and I have never seen a more mutually supportive team.It's the greatest cohesion and working together in the Conservative party that I have seen for 20 years... I think, in spirit, Ken Clarke is already back. Everybody has piled in to help."

Tim wrote earlier in the week that speculation about this reshuffle had got out of control - and he was absolutely right. As is always the case with reshuffle specualtion, every story is generally a collation of the previous few reports along with whatever new information-cum-rumour has been doing the rounds. In this reshuffle cycle, most of the names being written about have all been promoted/demoted/sacked/moved sideways several times over.

I hope that David Cameron gets on with it as soon as possible, put everyone out of their misery and we can look forward to following the fortunes of the rejuvenated team.

Jonathan Isaby

Boris defends taxpayer-funded stay at Tory conference

This morning's Independent on Sunday reports that Boris Johnson used public funds to pay the hotel bill for him and his entourage at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham.

Some are suggesting that this breaches section 6(b)(ii) of the GLA code of conduct which states that the mayor "must, when using or authorising the use by others of the resources of your authority,... ensure that such resources are not used improperly for political purposes (including party political purposes)".

Whereas Ken Livingstone did attend the conferences of the various parties in his capacity as mayor, Boris Johnson did not go to the Labour or Lib Dem gatherings, fuelling the claim that his attendance in Birmingham last autumn was party political.

He has just appeared on BBC1's Andrew Marr programme (presented today by Fiona Bruce) and defended his use of taxpayers' money to pay the £1,955.25 bill.

"As far as I am aware, it is usual for mayoral delegations' bills to be paid by the GLA... The mayor goes to party conferences and there's no reason why his bill should not be paid by the taxpayer... I don't believe it is proscribed by our rules of conudct... if it is I will certainly pay it back."

Tory peers under fire over low attendance at votes in the Lords

Today's Sunday Telegraph carries a report that Conservative peers participate in far fewer House of Lords divisions than their Labour and Liberal Democrat counterparts.

It states that average attendance rates at votes for peers of the three parties during the 2007-2008 session were:

Labour - 55%
Liberal Democrat - 54%
Conservative - 29%

The report goes on:

"An analysis of the figures shows that 18 per cent of Tory peers turned up for fewer than one in 10 votes, while only 12 per cent turned up for more than half... No Conservative peer turned up for more than 100 votes. The highest Tory attenders were Baroness Anelay of St Johns, the party's chief whip in the Upper House, and Baroness Seccombe, who each attended 78 votes. Baroness Morris of Bolton, the shadow minister for children and a key ally of Mr Cameron's in his drive to recruit more women to the party, turned up for 77."

There are a couple of points that should be made in defence of the Tory peers.

Firstly, many took their seats in the pre-1999 environment of a House with a considerable hereditary element in which the arithmetic was completely different and fewer peers would have seen their role as a full-time job; conversely a significant proportion of the Labour and Lib Dem peers have been appointed since those changes in 1999.

Secondly, on the few occasions each session when there really is a crunch vote which could lead to a Government defeat, the Tories in the Lords are generally pretty good at being there when it counts.

However, the need for more committed working peers was in our mind when ConservativeHome launched its Search for 100 Peers - an exercise to identify people whom David Cameron ought to consider appointing to the Lords when he has the opporutnity to bolster the Tory ranks in the Upper House.

Please keep emailing me with your suggestions of names to include in the series (with biographical information and why your nomination would be a good working peer, as well as whether you wish to be identified). With your help, we can show just how broad a range of talented and committed Conservative-minded people there are out there who could bring their skills and expertise to the Lords.

Jonathan Isaby

ComRes poll shows Tory lead increasing to 9%

Further to the news earlier tonight of a Tory lead of 13% opening up in a new YouGov poll, here are the figures for a ComRes poll featured in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday (hat tip to UK Polling Report):

The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday; comparisons are with the pre-Christmas ComRes survey, which saw the Tories enjoying a lead of 5%.

The SIndy's John Rentoul has more on his blog.

New YouGov poll sees Tory lead increase to 13%

According to Political Betting - and also now confirmed by the Press Association - tomorrow's Sunday Times carries a new YouGov opinion poll which puts the parties on the following percentages:

Comparisons are with the most recent YouGov survey for the Sun earlier this month, which gave the Tories a 7% lead.

YouGov interviewed 2,077 adults online, across Britain, on Thursday and Friday.

7.45pm Update: ComRes also has a poll out tomorrow

Sunday Update: The detailed breakdown of the poll is now online and several readers have pointed out the interesting figures for Scotland - namely Others (mainly SNP) on 30% with the Conservatives and Labour level pegging on 28%, which is considerably higher than the Tories have been doing in Scotland for some years. There is the obvious health warning, though, that on its own it is a small sample, ie a couple of hundred people.

Fundraising duo promise to 'blow Labour out of water'

It was a story we under-reported one week ago but the recruitment of the much-respected hedge fund trader Stanley Fink (estimated worth £116m) to help Tory Treasurer Michael Spencer (estimated worth over £1bn) is a huge boost to the Conservative Party.  The FT certainly realised the significance of the story at the time and splashed it across their front page last Saturday.

The good news comes after a recent round of redundancies at CCHQ and some concerns at poor financial management.

Fink and Spencer are interviewed by The Daily Telegraph's Andrew Porter and their optimism about fundraising will delight every Tory activist:

"Do the money men have a plan if an election is called in the next few months? Could they raise the cash that quickly? Worryingly for Labour, they do.

Mr Spencer says: "We obviously will have an immediate call to arms and we already have sounded out our donors already, in the event of an election, can we count upon you?"

Would that mean £18 million in the kitty?

"Absolutely."

Surely, the aim is to use the money he raises to crush Labour?

The answer is unequivocal.

"We will blow them out of the water.""

Tim Montgomerie

David Cameron promises money saving environmentalism

Even those who are sceptical about global warming can probably see much to welcome in today's announcement by David Cameron and Greg Clark that the Conservatives plan to install smart meters in every UK home.  The meters would be linked to the National Grid and would tell people when it would be cheaper to use electricity for, for example, recharging their electric car or for other electrical appliances that do not need peak time input.

Originally planned for announcement yesterday - but delayed by 24 hours because of the Heathrow decision - the smart meters plan would cost £1bn and is being described by David Cameron as the "internet for electricity".

Mr Cameron discussed his green plans during a successful live webcast a little while ago with The Independent's Geoffrey Lean.  Watch it again via the bottom of this page.

On this morning's Today programme Greg Clark announced that every home would be entitled to a £6,500 energy efficiency voucher.  This voucher could be used for loft and cavity wall insulations that would quickly pay for themselves.  The householders would never write a cheque.  The energy companies would have to make the up-front efficiency improvements and be paid back over time through energy bills.  Dr Clark said that this was a great policy for difficult economic times as the home improvements would create jobs in the building trade and save households money - as well as helping Britain move towards a low carbon economy.  Listen again to Greg here and visit conservatives.com for more information.

Eric Pickles wins grassroots' confidence to be next Party Chairman

1,495 party members took part in our online survey on Wednesday and yesterday and Eric Pickles won the lion's share of support when we asked Who should be the next Party Chairman?  We offered a choice between the four most talked-about candidates for the job.

The result does not mean that, for example, Eric is three times more popular than Chris Grayling.  Last week we found that Pickles and Grayling were level-pegging in terms of overall satisfaction.  What this survey suggests is that 57% of members believes that Eric Pickles has the best mix of skills and personality to become a key face of the Conservative Party - particularly for the next General Election campaign.

I still expect Mrs Spelman to be exonerated from the nannygate inquiry.  I hope she'll stay in the shadow cabinet but I agree with members that Eric Pickles is the best candidate to be Party Chairman.  Jeremy Hunt is one of my three 'big beasts of the future'.  The speculation is that he's Cameron's choice to the next Chairman.  We'll soon know.

Tim Montgomerie

David Cameron to launch new environmental policy this afternoon via a webcast

This afternoon David Cameron will be launching his latest proposals to create a low carbon Britain via a webcast.

This is something of a first and will involve the party leader being interviewed by Geoffrey Lean of The Independent before taking questions from all-comers via live chat, e-mail and Twitter.

It coincides with the appointment today of Craig Elder at CCHQ as Online Communities Editor, a post which will involve him heading up the party's presence in social media and ensuring that online communities get lots of opportunities for productive interaction with the party. He has written about his new role here.

The new policy itself has been previewed via an interview David Cameron has given to this morning's Guardian. It revolves around investing £1 billion in a "hi-tech National Grid" which would see "smart meters" being installed in every home - meaning that energy companies would be able to tell consumers when it is cheapest to use electricity.  Householders would also be able to use the smart meters to feed the grid with electricity generated through solar panels.

You can watch the policy launch webcast live at 1.30pm via the chatroom below or through the party's website. You can email your questions in advance to be put to David Cameron or use the Twitter tag #askDC.

Jonathan Isaby

Theresa Villiers vows to stop third runway at Heathrow

It appears that Gordon Brown has avoided a Cabinet rebellion on his go ahead for a third runway (R3) at Heathrow by requiring airlines that will use it to be only the newest and least polluting aircraft.

Speaking on the Today programme (listen again here), Shadow Transport Secretary Theresa Villiers said those requirements are worthless.  She told Radio 4 listeners that Labour had made many promises before that have not been kept.  She noted a promise by Stephen Byers a few years ago to limit flights to 480,000 a year but for that promise to be broken within a year.  She also noted that the Government was seeking derogations from EU laws on air quality.  Ms Villiers vowed that a Conservative government "absolutely will cancel these plans" and had the capacity to do so because there was "no chance of the planning process being completed" by the time of the next General Election.

Theresa Villiers' position is strongly supported by London Mayor Boris Johnson but it is said that there is strong opposition within the shadow cabinet and from backbenchers including Graham Brady, John Redwood, David Wilshire and Ian Taylor.  Mr Taylor wrote the following recently:

"For both good and ill, Heathrow will continue to be the major British airport. Presently Heathrow's runways are full and the consequences of this include delays, failed connections and missing bags. Furthermore if ground capacity for landing and take-off is not improved, the nuisance from over-flying because of 'stacking' will get worse (and stacked aircraft are certainly not environmentally friendly). One issue which requires further investigation is how to improve surface access to Heathrow by road and rail. The bus links from Reading and Woking are important but more strategic planning is needed. Meeting the environmental challenge requires sensible strategies as opposed to transient tactics. Decisions should be guided, but not blinded, by environmental conscience."

> On Platform today Nick Cuff makes the case for expanding airports other than Heathrow.
> Iain Dale backs R3

12.30pm: Speaking on Radio Two's Jeremy Vine show Boris Johnson predicted that the legal and environmental objections to a third runway would be "insurmountable".  He dismissed the Government's decision as "pointless political machismo" engineered by Peter Mandelson.  Heathrow was a planning error from the 1940s and it was wrong to expand upon that failure.  He discussed the possibilities of expanding other airports on London's perimeter including Manston but also building a new airport in the Thames Estuary.  He challenged Gordon Brown to debate the issue with him.

Tory reshuffle likely "within days"

With reshuffle speculation getting out of control it is now expected that the much-anticipated Tory reshuffle will happen sooner rather than later, "within days" according to one senior aide to the Tory leadership.

The biggest nonsense award goes to those writing that the Deputy status for William Hague is a snub to George Osborne.  William Hague is one of the party's biggest beasts and it's good news that he's taking a larger political role as he winds down his outside interests.  But noone should think that George Osborne isn't going to continue to be the second biggest force in the parliamentary Conservative Party.  Titles aren't everything.  Prescott was Tony Blair's Deputy in name but was never as powerful as Gordon Brown.  And that's not just because he occupies the biggest job in the shadow cabinet (after leader), it's because he remains very close to David Cameron and makes many of Project Cameron's biggest political judgments. 

One new suggestion is that Jeremy Hunt and Caroline Spelman might 'job swap'. If Caroline Spelman doesn't then receive a clean enough bill of health from the 'nannygate' inquiry she'll step aside from Culture, Media and Sport and be replaced by Ed Vaizey from within that team, so requiring no second big reshuffle. For the record - and a fair number of people are suggesting otherwise in threads - I believe in the integrity of Mrs Spelman and hope and expect her to be exonerated.  See ConHome's 7th June 2008 post.  There is a separate issue of whether she could continue as Chairman.  You can register your opinion on that question in this poll (which closes at 3pm today).

Of all the pieces written on the reshuffle this piece by Fraser Nelson is the best.  He writes about one of the most under-written influences on David Cameron: Andrew MacKay MP.  On Mr Mackay's own website we learn this: "Andrew is Senior Political and Parliamentary Advisor to David Cameron. Andrew works out of the Leader's Office, attending all key meetings, including the Shadow Cabinet.  At his appointment David said that he wanted someone of Andrew's experience to be by his side overseeing relationships with the Parliamentary party and beyond."  Here is the key extract of Fraser's article:

"Those in Norman Shaw South [Cameron's Nest] may laugh at the more fevered reshuffle speculation in the press, much of which strikes them as demonstrable nonsense. ‘But the troops don’t think it’s nonsense,’ explains one frontbencher. ‘And that’s the problem’. Email is no substitute for direct contact. The geographic dislocation of the Tory office layout has broken lines of communication. All of this feeds paranoia and amplifies the Chinese whispers echoing around Parliament. Many of these whispers can be traced to remarks that Andrew Mackay was making too loudly over dinner one evening recently — to the effect that Mr Cameron had decided to sack a senior frontbencher the day after the election. You might imagine these remarks to be of little consequence — Mr Mackay being only a former whip with almost no public profile. But those aware of his real significance in the party today would have craned their necks to listen, for he occupies an increasingly important and little-documented role. In the words of one shadow Cabinet member, he has become ‘something of a Rasputin figure’. Officially, he is ‘political and parliamentary adviser to the leader of the opposition’ — an intriguing title which gives him a passport to Mr Cameron’s morning meetings. But his real role is much broader. ‘Some time ago, David said to him: “I want you to be my Willie”,’ one MP tells me — referring, of course, to the service the late Lord Whitelaw supplied to Baroness Thatcher. ‘That’s Mackay’s skill: he can sniff the air, tell which tribes are forming, who’s up to mischief. He reports back to Cameron.’ Hence his potential relevance as a reshuffle rune-reader. Mr Mackay can advise as to which groupings need to be kept sweet, and which frontbenchers can be safely disposed of. His role does not require him to be popular, and his friends say he is happy in the shadows and ‘likes his holidays too much to join the front bench’. While his influence is rather mysterious, it is not seen as malign. As the leader’s office operates in a separate orbit from Parliament, Mr Cameron needs the best intelligence he can get."

Andrew MacKay is already a powerful figure within the Conservative Party. He'll be a major power in a Tory government, too.

Tim Montgomerie

Economy dominates first PMQs of 2009

Jonathan Isaby's verdict:

"A score draw between Brown and Cameron, I think. The trading of Ken Clarke quotes only serves to bolster my view me that having him in the shadow cabinet would be a very divisive move and cause regular headaches for David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Also interesting to note Gordon Brown trying to play the world statesman by mentioning all the other world leaders he is regularly talking to - five or six got a namecheck today."