ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

George Osborne and Francis Maude promise rewards to money-saving civil servants

The Telegraph and Daily Mail report that the next Conservative government will "rewrite civil service contracts to include a new legally-binding "fiduciary responsibility to taxpayers"."  Civil servants who are "judged to have failed to spend public money prudently will be disciplined or dismissed."

ConservativeHome welcomes this incentive-based approach to cost-reduction.  It is hard for an information-starved opposition party to identify comprehensive savings.  Empowering frontline public sector staff to deliver appropriate economies complements the party's belief in (1) professionalising the public services and (2) in decentralisation.

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne and the shadow cabinet minister in charge of the party's preparations for government, Francis Maude, "will also publish a dossier entitled "It's your money" detailing examples of wasteful spending - including the billions spent on the NHS super computer, ID cards, refurbishing the Ministry of Defence and Government consultants."

Tim Montgomerie

The most dangerous thing in Britain is the nothing-to-lose Labour Party

The Brown bounce is over.  The latest opinion poll points to a massive Labour defeat.  In today's Independent, Matthew Taylor, former head of strategy to Tony Blair, is recommending that Labour accepts defeat honourably considers putting politics aside even if that leads to defeat.  But that thought doesn't seem to be uppermost in the mind of Alistair Darling.  This morning's Guardian reports that the Chancellor "has accepted that a second emergency package of tax and spending measures may be needed in this spring's budget to claw the economy out of a deepening recession."  The first package may have been an expensive flop but that's not a concern to the kamikaze politicians inside the Downing Street bunker.

As blogged before, the nothing-to-lose Labour Party is now the most dangerous thing in Britain.  If Brown throws more money at Britain's problems he hopes against experience that his opinion poll position might just improve.  But he also knows that the incoming Conservative government will inherit nightmare levels of borrowing if this profligacy has no effect.  David Cameron will spend at least one parliament rescuing a sinking ship of state.

This is nothing short of massive economic vandalism.

Tim Montgomerie

ComRes: Tory lead up to 15%

A new ComRes survey has the Conservatives up to 43% (up 2%); Labour down to 28% (-4%) and the LibDems on 16% (+1%).

I call this landslide territory!

9.45pm: These numbers within the poll are particularly interesting.  They suggest a massive erosion of the lead Labour had built up on economic competence during the latter stages of 2008:

Comparing the views of party members and party voters

When we publish the results of the ConservativeHome monthly polls we focus on the views of party members although non-member Tory voters and others also take part.  Far fewer 'Tory voters' (as I will call them - I know members vote too!) take part than members.  In the most recent poll, for example, 1,495 members gave their opinions but only 233 voters.  Another 319 people voted of different political affiliations and none.  The ratio of members to voters has been pretty constant since we started polling in November 2005.  This post compares some recent survey results for members and voters.

WHO SHOULD BE THE NEXT PARTY CHAIRMAN?
January 2009

• 57% of members said Eric Pickles.  43% of voters said Eric Pickles.
• 14% of members said Caroline Spelman.  14% of voters said Caroline Spelman.
• 5% of members didn't know. 10% of voters didn't know.

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
December 2008

• The top three shadow cabinet ministers for members were: Eric Pickles, Chris Grayling then William Hague.
• The top three for voters were William Hague, Eric Pickles then Chris Grayling.
• Again don't knows were generally much higher.  45% of members have no opinion, for example, of David Mundell. That rises to 61% for voters.

SATISFACTION WITH DAVID CAMERON
December 2008

• 52% of members are quite satisfied with David Cameron; 35% very satisfied.
• 40% of quite voters are satisfied; 32% very satisfied.

Ken Clarke can't see Britain joining Euro in his political lifetime

Excellent performance by Ken Clarke on Andrew Marr's programme in which in predicted that Britain wouldn't join the Euro in his "political lifetime".

He said that it was a decision for David Cameron but that he hoped to play a role in the next Conservative government.  He wasn't just in this for a spell on the opposition benches.

On the big story of the day - allegations in The Sunday Times that Labour peers were prepared to accept 'cash-for-laws' - he said that an independent investigation would be needed to establish whether "corruption" was present.

One question: It seems extraordinary that these peers will be able to keep their places in the Lords if they are found guilty.  Surely that needs to change?

6pm: Watch the interview.

The Tories are heading for a landslide victory

The second Brown bounce is well and truly over according to opinion polls. The punters have turned more strongly against Gordon Brown than at any time since Tony Blair left Downing Street.  Twittering yesterday I've gone on the record predicting a Tory majority of 100.

And the news just keeps getting worse and worse for Gordon Brown...

• In an echo of the cash-for-questions row that helped bring John Major down we learn this morning that "Labour peers are prepared to accept fees of up to £120,000 a year to amend laws in the House of Lords on behalf of business clients, a Sunday Times investigation has found."
• Meanwhile The Observer puts a price tag on the recession: "Every taxpayer in the country has lost almost £40,000 since the onset of the credit crunch, as plunging house prices and the savage sell-off in stock markets have obliterated £1.2 trillion of Britain's national wealth."
• The News of the World makes it more personal: "The average value of houses and flats is falling by £764 a week as prices continue to nosedive—yet the average pay packet is £479."

This is all deadly stuff for Brown.  He has thrown the taxpayers' kitchen sink at the recession but missed.  He's twice bottled the chance of an early election and he'll now head to the country with Britain mired in the worst recession of the developed world and voters facing big tax rises to pay off his eye-watering levels of borrowing.  His key lieutenants still lack any idea of how to sensibly attack David Cameron.  The reputation of David Miliband - the man once tipped as his party's saviour - is sinking faster than sterling.  Labour's misrule will end with a landslide defeat.

Of course there is no room for complacency and I see no signs of complacency in the Tory team.  The reshuffle produced a sharper team.  Eric Pickles is redoubling efforts against the Liberal Democrats.  I understand that candidates in target seats are about to face a new, tougher management regime.

I write all of this - not, I hope, for indulgent reasons - but because it should have implications for how the Conservatives conduct themselves from now on.  The Tory leadership cannot and should not, of course, take one single vote for granted but it must not repeat the mistakes of Tony Blair and arrive in Whitehall so ill-prepared.  Here are four immediate thoughts on behaviours that should characterise a 'government-ready' frontbench:

• No rushed policies. There is no need to make announcements that aren't thoroughly thought-through.  I'm thinking of badly-received schemes like the employment subsidy.
• The work of Francis Maude's preparation-for-government unit needs beefing up.  Does it have enough resources?  Just before Christmas one of the most senior members of the shadow cabinet told me that he had had no significant engagement with Mr Maude's team.  The success of this unit will have a big influence on our first term performance as a government.
• We need to think of using the likes of Peter Lilley, Stephen Dorrell, Michael Howard, John Redwood and others in government. We have been out of office for many years; as Labour had been in 1997.  People who have run Whitehall departments should be used to help new ministers with zero Whitehall experience.
• A relentless focus on a long-term vision for Britain's economic future. See here.

Tim Montgomerie

Now it's John Prescott's turn to launch a Labour-supporting website

They're like London buses at the moment.  First Derek Draper's LabourList, now John Prescott's 'Go 4th'.  Geddit?  The Observer has more on Mr Prescott's teaming up with Alistair Campbell.

Interestingly Derek didn't know that this project was about to launch when I mentioned it to him a week ago!

Tim Montgomerie

PS I've recorded a film for tomorrow's Politics Show on Labour and the web.  BBC1 at noon.

Daniel Kawczynski MP persists in his complaint about police's arrival in his office

On Thursday the Speaker accused Daniel Kawczynski MP of "rushing" to judgment on the appearance of police officers at his Commons office.  Mr Kawczynski is persisting in his concern that the police behaviour was inappropriate and has written to the Speaker setting out his concerns.  The full text of his letter is pasted below.

> Newsnight's Michael Crick has blogged on the issue and in sympathy with Daniel Kawczynski.

Chris Grayling vows "zero tolerance" of small crimes

When David Cameron moved Chris Grayling to the Home affairs slot he wanted a "pub ready"* spokesman on the issue of crime.  Although economic issues will dominate the next General Election there are growing fears of a "credit crunch crime wave" as people falling on harder times engage in more "acquisitive crimes".

Grayling has hit the ground running with an article for The Sun.  It is accompanied with a powerful image of Chris Grayling looking through a broken window (see image on right).  In a promise to bring New York's zero tolerance to Britain, Mr Grayling explains his strategy:

"If you ask most people in this country what they hate most about crime in our society, they’ll tell you it is the smaller offences — the acts of antisocial behaviour that cause misery to communities..."

Exactly.  He continues:

"...What Bill Bratton realised was that one leads to the other. If you leave minor crime unchecked, then things will deteriorate into something much worse. Yet in today’s Britain the police often don’t have time to deal with the smaller stuff. Too often 999 calls get little response because there are more pressing needs elsewhere. Only a tiny proportion of police time is spent on the beat. So a gang causing trouble will get away with it. And worse will follow."

Plenty of Tories have promised zero tolerance policing over the years.  Over the next year we'll be asking Mr Grayling to show how he'll get rid of the many barriers in its way.

Tim Montgomerie

* © Benedict Brogan

Tories condemn "repugnant" proposal to pay £12,000 to families of dead IRA terrorists

Northern Ireland's 'Consultative Group on the Past', co-chaired by Lord Eames and Denis Bradley,  is to ask Gordon Brown to authorise £12,000 payments to the families of those who lost their lives in 'The Troubles' - including the families of IRA terrorists.  The overall cost of the plan would be about £40m.

Owen Paterson, Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, issued this statement last night:

“I look forward to reading the full report next week but I could not support this particular proposal to reward all victims indiscriminately if it is included. Those people who carried out vicious acts of violence against innocent civilians and members of the legally established security forces cannot be put on the same level as their victims - any attempt to do so would be repugnant.”

The leaked recommendations were welcomed by Sinn Fein but the DUP First Minister Peter Robinson attacked them as "disappointing and disturbing".

Tim Montgomerie

> Lord Trimble discussed the plans on this morning's Today programme.

George Osborne targets Labour's "endless announcements" as fears grow of recession worse than the 1980s

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne has issued this statement:

“With unemployment rising faster than anywhere else, and businesses closing every day, these figures are deeply worrying. The government's endless announcements and summits are commanding neither public confidence at home nor confidence abroad. And it's difficult to see how we'll get that confidence with a Prime Minister who blames everyone else for the mess we're in and refuses to acknowledge any mistakes. We need urgent action to get credit flowing again and to help the innocent victims of the recession. Britain’s families and businesses need a government that will get the public finances under control, set out clear and sensible plans for the future, and restore confidence so our economy can recover.”

PoliticsHome has captured David Cameron's response to today's news.

Interviewed earlier on BBC News 24, CentreRight's Andrew Lilico (who had accurately predicted a 1.5% contraction on this morning's Today programme) warned that the total peak-to-trough loss of GDP would be 6-7%.  That would be worse than the 1980s when national income dropped by nearly 6%.  9% is not implausible, according to Andrew, if there is no material positive effect from lower interest rates and fiscal loosening.  We could even get a double digit recession, he warns, if the worst case scenarios of significant deflation or sovereign default occured.

Tim Montgomerie

The self-evident nonsense of Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown has just been on the Today programme repeatedly refusing to admit that he has presided over 'boom and bust'.  David Cameron believes that Brown's repeated tendency to spout "self-evident nonsense" will be a principal reason for his defeat.

Answering questions yesterday at the launch of the Progressive Conservatism Project the Tory leader said that there were more and more examples of Brown saying completely unbelievable things.  He listed...

1. Brown's claim to have not looked at opinion polls before calling off the autumn 2007 election;
2. Brown's self-serving, repeated and anti-American claim that the USA is responsible for Britain's recession - although it was Mr Brown himself who has brought Britain to the weakest fiscal position and grimmest recession of any developed nation;
3. His claim that the Tories were the do-nothing party on the recession even though (for example) the Conservatives had proposed a £50bn loan guarantee scheme - and two months before Labour got round to acting on this issue.

I'm sure ConHome readers can think of other examples.  My question is whether Brown himself is so self-deluded that he believes his only lies or does he just think that we're all fools?

Tim Montgomerie

Eric Pickles gears up to lovebomb the Liberal Democrats (again and again and again)

Eric Pickles will be getting his night's rest on a Sleeper train to Cornwall.  After an evening speaking engagement he's heading towards the South West for a tour of Conservative-Liberal marginals.  His day begins at 7.30am tomorrow with a breakfast engagement in Truro and it's a full day of meetings thereafter.  An aide to the new Party Chairman tells me that this visit communicates two of the big themes that Eric Pickles wants to characterise his tenure at CCHQ: graft (he promises to match the sacrifice of volunteers) and a focus on the LibDems.  With opinion polls pointing towards a perhaps decisive increase in the Tory lead some party strategists are recommending a significant shift of battleground resources into unseating Liberal Democrat MPs.  Eric Pickles is a big advocate of the lovebombing* tactic.   

Tim Montgomerie

* After years of unsuccessfully trying to scare people from voting LibDem (because, for example, of their strong pro-Europeanism, their social permissiveness or 'soft' approach to crime), the Tories decided that it was better to flatter them and appear to agree with them on key issues. The love-bombing strategy was partly a result of fears that negative campaigning against the LibDems risked reinforcing voters' perceptions of the Conservatives as mean-spirited rather than affecting voters' perceptions of the 'nice' LibDems.

Introducing 'Red Toryism'

(Image from Prospect Magazine - to accompany a forthcoming feature from Philip Blond).

I've just returned from the launch of the new Progressive Conservatism Project - hosted by the Demos think tank and directed by Philip Blond.

In a sign of the seriousness with which the Tory leadership is taking the project David Cameron has just addressed the gathering.  The Tory leader's speech contained little that is new but the PCP has attracted Greg Clark MP, David Willetts MP, Daniel Finkelstein and Zac Goldsmith (among others) to its advisory board.

I'm still struggling to quite understand Mr Blond's 'Red Toryism' (as he describes it) but pasted below are some extracts from pieces he has written for The Guardian's Comment is free over recent months...

Challenging centralisation, monopolisation and speculation: "The small governing elite of the party feels that this is the right way to go, but they lack a final intellectual synthesis and they also fear antagonising Thatcherites, who still constitute a sizeable slice of the party and a majority of the branch activists. But the unprecedented crisis of the world economy precipitated by the debt-leveraged collapse of free-market extremism has given the Tories a real opportunity to develop. They should worry less and carry the logic of their own civic philosophy through to its conclusion, for it could produce a genuinely critical account of the crisis and an alternative to the left/right neoliberal fundamentalism of the last 30 years. For instance, the crisis of contemporary capitalism results from the congruence and culmination of three dominant trends: centralisation, monopolisation and speculation. Despite rightwing ideological claims, unregulated capital does not diffuse equitably among all market participants. The centralisation of money and power is the foundation of monopoly, and the precondition for unrestrained speculation. Thus the Conservative critique of centralisation means an end of cartel domination and a limit to inappropriate speculation." (21 August 2008)

Theresa Villiers to ensure MPs can vote on Heathrow expansion

Next week will see the latest move in Theresa Villiers's campaign against the third runway at Heathrow.

The Conservatives have decided to give over their Opposition Day debate in the Commons next Wednesday to discussion of the expansion of Heathrow airport.

Crucially, this means a motion will be tabled upon which MPs will be able to vote at the end of proceedings - something which transport secretary Geoff Hoon has effectively sought to stop from happening.

Theresa Villiers said:

"Because the Government have run away from a vote, we will be using our parliamentary time to allow one to take place."

She added that Labour MPs are "in disarray" on the issue, although it remains to be seen how many of those on the government backbenches who are sceptical about the third runway would be willing to back a Conservative motion on the issue. There is also the question of what potential Tory rebels who are supportive of airport expansion, such as David Wilshire, will do.

Jonathan Isaby

David Cameron to set out the four aims of "Progressive Conservatism"

David Cameron is making a speech to Demos this afternoon in which he will set out the four aims of "Progressive Conservatism" as:

• a fair society
• a green environment
• safety for citizens
• equal opportunity

The Evening Standard characterises the speech as being designed to show the party's desire to "use Conservative policies to achieve traditionally Left-leaning ends such as the abolition of child poverty and increased social mobility", thereby attempting to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem-inclined voters.

Tim is going to be attending the speech, so check back here later for full coverage and analysis of what David Cameron has to say.

Update: Tim has posted here.

Jonathan Isaby

Business leaders warm to the idea of a Conservative Government

A survey of business leaders for today's Independent suggests that they are warming to the idea of a Conservative Government and welcome the return of Ken Clarke to the political frontline as shadow business secretary.

The ComRes poll shows that:

• 59% of those questioned believe the Tories offer constructive and realistic policies
• 56% think the Conservative Party is ready for government
• Only 18% back Labour's claim that the Tories are a "do nothing party" on the economy

Asked who they would most want to serve on their board of directors, they replied:

• Ken Clarke - 38%
• David Cameron - 18%
• Lord Mandelson - 15%
• Simon Cowell - 17%
• Gordon Brown - 8%
• George Osborne - 2%
• Alistair Darling - 2%

And, crucially, business is unconvinced that Labour's economic measures will be effective:

• 62% of those surveyed think the temporary cut in VAT is "plain foolish", with only 14% believing it will benefit the economy
• 52 per cent believe the reduction in interest rates to 1.5% will make no difference, 32% think it will be positive and 13% say it will have a negative effect

Some may find the 56% figure a little low in terms of those thinking the party is ready for government. However, I remain of the view that the election will not be until May 2010, which means there will probably be another 16 months for the rejuvenated shadow cabinet team to prove itself worthy of taking the reins of power.

Jonathan Isaby

Police entered ANOTHER Tory MP's office

The BBC has the story of the police's arrival at Daniel Kawczynski MP's Commons office.

Thursday update: The Speaker has rebuked Mr Kawczynski over the matter - BBC report here. And Daniel Kawczyndki has now issued the following statement:

"I welcome the Speaker’s statement to the House in response to my complaint that the police had entered my office without consulting me and threatened to seize potentially confidential constituency correspondence from a young member of my staff and a student intern.

"I wish to make it clear that I fully support the police in all their efforts to keep Members of Parliament, their staff and the public safe and secure.  Indeed, had the police approached me personally and explained the circumstances of their investigation, I would have cooperated fully, while obviously ensuring there was no unjustified breach of the duty of confidentiality I owe to my constituents.  It goes without saying that if they had not been sure, as they already were in this case, that the substance was not harmful, then protecting public safety would be paramount and I would have made no objection to their actions.

"I do hope, however, that the police will reflect on their actions in this case and learn important lessons:  Telephoning an intern to ask if they could come around immediately to show my staff some handwriting samples does not constitute making an appointment with me; stating to junior staff in my absence that if correspondence was not provided voluntarily, they had the power to seize it, was also unacceptable.  It was also absolutely clear from the televisions all around Parliament that I was not only in the Chamber at the time but actually making a speech on pensioners and their savings.

"I welcome the Speaker’s ruling that from now on if a Police Officer wishes to enter the office of an MP and to try to secure any documentation he or she will first of all need to inform the Serjeant at Arms and the MP in question. This is important as it will allow the MP and the Commons authorities to make appropriate time to sit down properly with the police and see how best they are able to assist them with their enquiries while properly considering the rights of their constituents."

Ken Clarke: Tories will get more pro-European in office

So Mr Clarke said six weeks ago, according to The Guardian:

"I think the need to be working with Obama will influence my party on Europe. It is still firmly Eurosceptic but it's now moderate, harmless Eurosceptism. It's a bit silly sometimes, like which group do you join in the European parliament, but full-blooded stuff like renegotiating the treaty of accession is as dead as a dodo. We've got lots of ideas on European policy on energy, security, relations with Russia, climate change, all that kind of thing [but] somebody like me is far more relaxed about all that [and if the Tories] get into office the pressure of the American alliance will make them more European."

Mr Clarke was speaking at an academic conference in Nottingham.  I remember the words well as I was chairing the panel session when he made those remarks.  He also warned about higher taxes but I reported those at the time (after agreeing them with his office).  The rest of the session was supposed to be off the record.

Tim Montgomerie

£1m is just "small beer" for Labour

Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley has rightly leapt on a remark made by Alan Johnson on this morning's Today programme.

Health Secretary Mr Johnson was asked: "Do you not have any doubts you have a millions pounds and you could have spent it on drugs, you could have spent it on treatments but instead you have spent it on a document which doesn’t actually change anything?"  The document being the NHS Constitution.

Johnson replied: “Oh, no come on….this is small beer in the NHS budget…”

Mr Lansley said that the remark betrayed Labour's "cavalier attitude to taxpayers’ money".

CCHQ have issued a list of what £1m could buy:

• 33 Nurses (based on salary for a top Band 5 nurse, including National Insurance contributions)
• OR 30 Teachers (based on salary for a teacher with 5 years experience, including NI)
• OR 26 policemen (based on salary for a policeman with 10 years’ service, including NI)
• OR 32 Soldiers (based on salary for a corporal on Level 3, Higher Scale, including NI)
• OR 132 hip replacement operations (based on NHS Tariff 2008-09)

Now all we need is a list of what we could have done with the money thrown at the banks.

Tim Montgomerie

David Cameron captures the national change of mood on the economy at PMQs

VERDICT: "A clear victory for David Cameron.  Not just because his performance was strong - and it was - but I sense we've reached a tipping point.  The country has realised that all of the massively expensive government activity is not preventing the developed world's worst recession and a potentially devastating loss of international market confidence in the pound and the wider UK economy."

Highlights, not verbatim:

12.25pm: In a ridiculous intervention Dennis Skinner blames "Tory fat cats" for the banking crisis.  In a different times, says the Beast of Bolsover, they'd be called "the enemy within".

12.23pm: Edward Garnier (the man who nearly became Shadow Attorney General) presses the PM again on transparency of MPs' expenses.  It is particularly offensive, he says, for MPs to be hiding their expenses at a time when so many are losing their jobs.

12.18pm: Nick Clegg warns that the UK economy is on the edge of a cliff and Labour's half measures are not helping.  Brown lists Labour's initiatives on recapitalisation, the VAT cut and lending guarantees as consistent with other international governments' initiatives.

12.16pm Cameron concludes his questions by saying that the country has lost confidence in the government and a recovery is impossible without such confidence.  An angry Brown says that Cameron is bringing no new ideas to fighting the recession.  He is out of step, the PM says, with all other world governments and out of his depth.

12.13pm: Cameron asks Brown to confirm that the taxpayer has already lost £20bn on the recapitalisation policy. Brown doesn't answer but responds by saying that the Tories are isolated internationally with no other serious party supporting fiscal restraint at this time.  Cameron comes back with the line that Brown is isolated in Britain as the only person thinking he is doing a good job.

12.10pm: David Cameron says that Brown has been behind the curve on all economic issues.  Conservatives, he continues, have been setting the pace on insuring bank lending and calling for changes to the terms of bank recapitalisation.  Responding to Labour jibes about Ken Clarke he says that the difference between Ken Clarke's legacy and Brown's is that one Chancellor bequeathed a golden legacy and the other wrecked it.  In return, Brown quotes Ken Clarke's words that Tory European policy as "dotty" and "crackpot".    

12.08pm: David Cameron responds by saying that neither did Obama propose a National Insurance-style hike on medium income workers.  Picture of Ken Clarke on Tory frontbench.

12.04pm: Cameron gets to his feet: Today's rise in unemployment, the pound falling and debt rising we have had fresh confirmation that the UK economy is least well-placed to weather the world recession.  What is the Prime Minister's response to a lack of confidence from world markets in the Government's policies?  After listing some of Labour's measures Brown says one thing Obama did not say is 'My fellow Americans, Let's do nothing."

12.02pm: Douglas Carswell MP asks Mr Brown why he is whipping Labour MPs to keep certain expenses details secret.  Why should there be one rule for members of the public and one for MPs?  Brown replies by saying that transparency will be greater in the UK Parliament than in many other legislatures.

I'm hoping for some anger from Mr Cameron today.  I got angry after reading Fraser Nelson's column yesterday in which he struggled to communicate the seriousness of Britain's economic plight.  Mr Cameron could try Policy Exchange's 100 Reasons Britain Needs To Change.

Tim Montgomerie

All Tory MPs will be ordered to fight Labour attempts to keep expenses secret

1PM UPDATE: BROWN BACKS DOWN ON EXPENSES VOTE

As The Guardian reports this morning, Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs are set to join forces to vote against Harriet Harman's attempts to exempt MPs from provisions of the Freedom of Information Act - all in a bid to keep some details of their taxpayer-funded expenses secret.

The original Conservative plan had been for only the Tory frontbench to be whipped on this issue but following an agreement between Alan Duncan, the new Shadow Leader of the House, and David Cameron yesterday, all Conservatives MPs will be expected to vote against "one rule for the taxpayer and a different rule for MPs" - as Mr Duncan puts it.  Neither this morning's Times nor Telegraph have caught up with this tightening of the Tory position.

Kate Hoey, David Winnick and Frank Field may lead a rebellion against the Labour whip.

Our congratulations to Alan Duncan on this first judgment call in his new post.

> Join MySociety's Facebook group: I object to MPs concealing their expenses

10am: Louise Bagshawe discusses this issue on CentreRight.

Who else should be in the shadow cabinet?

This word cloud - created by wordle - represents the more than 800 unprompted answers given in the latest ConHome survey to the question: "Which individual - NOT brought into the shadow cabinet - would you most like to have seen returned to the frontbench?"

You can click on the image to enlarge it.

David Cameron claims similarity between the Tory and Obama messages

This from conservatives.com:

"David Cameron praised Barack Obama for setting out “a different agenda” and for putting the emphasis on responsibility ahead of his inauguration.  In a radio interview on 5 Live, David stressed, “He’s not saying, ‘I will make all the changes myself’; he’s not saying ‘I’m a top-down politician who can just pull the levers and change the world.’ He’s saying we are all in this together and we have all got to bring this change about.”

David welcomed Obama’s message that change comes when everyone plays their part – and stressed, “What I find so convincing about his speeches and about what I think he will say today is this emphasis on responsibility.”

David said today would be an “emotional” day, with America having gone from segregation to a black President in a few decades.   “The most emotional thing I found was when you watched those people in America talking about how they took pictures of their parents into the polling stations - that really brought home to me just what it means to people to see this happen.”"

Earlier today Ben Brogan noted that Team Obama will have observed Brown's falling poll ratings.  America's 44th President will know that they may have a year of Brown in Downing Street but the strong likelihood is that the vast majority of his presidency will overlap with David Cameron as UK PM.

> Full text of Obama's Inaugural Address

Update: David Cameron issued this statement to the Wall Street Journal: ""Responsibility is the most defining value of my politics. So for me the most important phrase in the speech was this: "What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility". This passage was important because he wasn't saying that he can change the world single-handedly, he was saying that it is only if we all do our bit that we can get the change we want. Before he'd even moved into the White House he'd already achieved something that only the greatest Presidents achieve: inspiring people to have faith in their capacity to make a difference in the world."

Ken Livingstone will be turning in his political grave

When Ken Livingstone was London Mayor you were more likely to see honours for Hugo Chavez or some suicide-bomb-justifying-cleric.  Fortunately Boris is now Mayor.  Marking Barack Obama's Inauguration, the man who put a portrait of The Queen up in City Hall, has the Stars & Stripes flying outside today.  Boris issued this statement:

"This is a momentous day and I'm proud to raise the US flag over City Hall. As an Englishman, born in New York, as an elected politician, as a democrat and addict of history, I'm inspired by the prospect of this great man entering the Oval office. We in the United Kingdom will always share a unique relationship with the United States. But the inauguration of Barack Obama, as the 44th President, is a cause for a very special celebration."

But - for those who aren't Obama fans - there's always Melanie Phillips.

> Related link: Hague urges Obama to boost America's moral authority in the world