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Excellent poll from YouGov which continues the trend set by the Populus poll earlier in the week.
As Sean Fear has just noted on PB.com, it certainly appears to prove Anthony Wells’ thesis correct.

Lots of Cameron on the TV with some good policies + people remembering why they didn't like Brown in the first place = growing poll lead.

Now sit back and watch Com Res try to throw a spanner in the works later tonight.

Forgive me Chris, I hear that bounded around a lot, but I don't actually know what it is. Or rather, I've probably heard the theory, just not the person. Care to enlighten moi?

I think IIRC, the reference is to the theory of Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com which says that "the more Cameron is on the telly, the better the Conservatives do". Don't forget Mike's other golden rule either.. "A rogue poll is one where you dont agree with the figures"!!!

I think people are seriously underestimating how the Cameron project is going to pretty much destroy the LibDims, especially since they decided to elect as leader someone just like Cameron but with a tenth of the airtime.

Great news. It will be interesting to see if any of those who criticise the Conservatives so often on this blog chooose to comment on this thread.

David, this is the article that Anthony Wells posted on his excellent UK polling report site which set out his thesis, well worth bookmarking his site for the polling information.


The abyss ahead of Gordon Brown…

He posted a further article about this last week as well. Economic confidence on the wane again


The other important factor has got to be the high profile that Cameron has maintained recently. In what has become known as the Mike Smithson rule, when Cameron is in the public eye, the Tory polling figures go up.

Many thanks, both of you. As I thought - I knew the theories, but not in relation to the names.

Geat news - just shows that Cameron does connect with the voters.He is our greatest asset.

ComeRes tonight is showing a 9pt lead for us. Not as great a lead but still very encouraging.

Nice poll!

Still amazed one in three want to vote Labour:

They mess around with free markets and red tape which annoy the rich.

They mess around with taxes and charge all their excesses to the middle class.

They mess around with tax rates and steal from the poor (10 % band), lead them to lose their jobs by not restricting silly bank lending to richer people when it mattered. They add insult to injury by asking the poor to live on benefits of £40 a week in bedsits and they must 'go work' to keep this tiny sum.

They restrict our lives with silly rules like no salt in the school canteen and spy on us when we take out our rubbish.

They offend, annoy and bankrupt everybody.
How on earth do these guys get 32 % ?!

Rogue poll. Just ignore.

I agree with Northern Monkey. If 32% of people are still retarded enough to want five more years of Jonah Brown, it must be a rogue.

"How on earth do these guys get 32 % ?!"

Two factors:

Firstly those voters dependent upon an ever growing state sector - the non-jobs, the welfare layabouts, the various 'consultants' etc.

Secondly the 'our family has always been Labour, they're the party for the working class' types.

The next Conservative government must reduce the first type and educate the second.

ComRes 9 pts?

ComRes is a load of bull*

"ComeRes tonight is showing a 9pt lead for us. Not as great a lead but still very encouraging."

Peter, the ComRes poll is also excellent for us too. Mike Smithson of PB.com is forever having to point out that you cannot compare different pollsters figures, you must compare like with like.
We have doubled our YouGov lead tonight, but remember that the December ComRes poll had us just 1% ahead of Labour. In that context, this is quite a dramatic increase from them.

"Rogue poll. Just ignore."

Which one?

The Populus last week which had the Conservative lead increasing by 6%.

The YouGov which has it up by 6%.

Or the ComRes which has is up by 4%?


The fact that, as Cleethorpes and eugene highlight, a third of the electorate would vote for Bruin is amazing. Is the country one third full of people who wish to see this country reduced to abject penury?

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