New YouGov poll sees Tory lead increase to 13%

According to Political Betting - and also now confirmed by the Press Association - tomorrow's Sunday Times carries a new YouGov opinion poll which puts the parties on the following percentages:

Comparisons are with the most recent YouGov survey for the Sun earlier this month, which gave the Tories a 7% lead.

YouGov interviewed 2,077 adults online, across Britain, on Thursday and Friday.

7.45pm Update: ComRes also has a poll out tomorrow

Sunday Update: The detailed breakdown of the poll is now online and several readers have pointed out the interesting figures for Scotland - namely Others (mainly SNP) on 30% with the Conservatives and Labour level pegging on 28%, which is considerably higher than the Tories have been doing in Scotland for some years. There is the obvious health warning, though, that on its own it is a small sample, ie a couple of hundred people.

Comments

[ChrisD]

Excellent poll from YouGov which continues the trend set by the Populus poll earlier in the week.
As Sean Fear has just noted on PB.com, it certainly appears to prove Anthony Wells’ thesis correct.

[David (One of many)]

Lots of Cameron on the TV with some good policies + people remembering why they didn't like Brown in the first place = growing poll lead.

Now sit back and watch Com Res try to throw a spanner in the works later tonight.

[David (One of many)]

Forgive me Chris, I hear that bounded around a lot, but I don't actually know what it is. Or rather, I've probably heard the theory, just not the person. Care to enlighten moi?

[Bernard from Horsham]

I think IIRC, the reference is to the theory of Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com which says that "the more Cameron is on the telly, the better the Conservatives do". Don't forget Mike's other golden rule either.. "A rogue poll is one where you dont agree with the figures"!!!

[Michael Heaver]

I think people are seriously underestimating how the Cameron project is going to pretty much destroy the LibDims, especially since they decided to elect as leader someone just like Cameron but with a tenth of the airtime.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Great news. It will be interesting to see if any of those who criticise the Conservatives so often on this blog chooose to comment on this thread.

[ChrisD]

David, this is the article that Anthony Wells posted on his excellent UK polling report site which set out his thesis, well worth bookmarking his site for the polling information.

The abyss ahead of Gordon Brown…

He posted a further article about this last week as well. Economic confidence on the wane again

The other important factor has got to be the high profile that Cameron has maintained recently. In what has become known as the Mike Smithson rule, when Cameron is in the public eye, the Tory polling figures go up.

[David (One of many)]

Many thanks, both of you. As I thought - I knew the theories, but not in relation to the names.

[Peter Buss]

Geat news - just shows that Cameron does connect with the voters.He is our greatest asset.

ComeRes tonight is showing a 9pt lead for us. Not as great a lead but still very encouraging.

[eugene]

Nice poll!

Still amazed one in three want to vote Labour:

They mess around with free markets and red tape which annoy the rich.

They mess around with taxes and charge all their excesses to the middle class.

They mess around with tax rates and steal from the poor (10 % band), lead them to lose their jobs by not restricting silly bank lending to richer people when it mattered. They add insult to injury by asking the poor to live on benefits of £40 a week in bedsits and they must 'go work' to keep this tiny sum.

They restrict our lives with silly rules like no salt in the school canteen and spy on us when we take out our rubbish.

They offend, annoy and bankrupt everybody.
How on earth do these guys get 32 % ?!

[NorthernMonkey]

Rogue poll. Just ignore.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I agree with Northern Monkey. If 32% of people are still retarded enough to want five more years of Jonah Brown, it must be a rogue.

[Another Richard]

"How on earth do these guys get 32 % ?!"

Two factors:

Firstly those voters dependent upon an ever growing state sector - the non-jobs, the welfare layabouts, the various 'consultants' etc.

Secondly the 'our family has always been Labour, they're the party for the working class' types.

The next Conservative government must reduce the first type and educate the second.

[Ann W]

ComRes 9 pts?

ComRes is a load of bull*

[ChrisD]

"ComeRes tonight is showing a 9pt lead for us. Not as great a lead but still very encouraging."

Peter, the ComRes poll is also excellent for us too. Mike Smithson of PB.com is forever having to point out that you cannot compare different pollsters figures, you must compare like with like.
We have doubled our YouGov lead tonight, but remember that the December ComRes poll had us just 1% ahead of Labour. In that context, this is quite a dramatic increase from them.

[Another Richard]

"Rogue poll. Just ignore."

Which one?

The Populus last week which had the Conservative lead increasing by 6%.

The YouGov which has it up by 6%.

Or the ComRes which has is up by 4%?

[john broughton]

The fact that, as Cleethorpes and eugene highlight, a third of the electorate would vote for Bruin is amazing. Is the country one third full of people who wish to see this country reduced to abject penury?

[john broughton]

Incidentally I like Bruin as a brownish sound and factual ruination.

[Northernlass]

My benefits are inflation proofed and because I am out of work I get my rent paid so I can't complain.Brown is best for the unemployed in my book.

[Jack Stone]

They get 32% because the Conservative Party haven`t given them a convincing alternative.
Its not the voters or the pollsters who are at fault its The Conservative Party.

[m dowding]

Its not the voters or the pollsters who are at fault its The Conservative Party.

Posted by: Jack Stone | January 17, 2009 at 20:09

Oooooooooooooh!

The Conservative Party always has had to clean up Labour's mess, Mr Stone. Pluc ca change.
Good polls. Reality is stil really Labour below 20%.

[Martin Coxall]

I know some people say that you shouldn't speak ill of the dead...

But, I hope Brown Bounce II rots alone and unloved in its own special hell.

[Martin Coxall]

@Jack Stone

At 32pts, Labour are getting dangerously close to their natural floor that we saw last summer, of people who will vote for them, no matter what.

Given that 50% of adults in this country now depend on the state for 70%+ of their income, it's not surprising that there's an inbuilt, sizable Labour block vote.

We have to ensure that it's our first task as an incoming government to liquidate this block, swiftly yet fairly.

[dcj]

Despite the minor bickering over Mr Stone in which I was involved earlier this week, he is absolutely right in this post (20:09) We have yet to offer a convincing reason to those such as Northern Lass (20:08) for whom Labour's Britain is a sort of State-run, drip-fed Nirvana. Why should Labour's client state vote for discomfort? Why should turkeys vote for an early Christmas? It is true that the lumpenproletariat will eventually suffer with everyone else when the country goes down the plughole under the weight of the unproductive parasitic client state which Our Gordon has built up, but that's in the future.

The Blessed Margaret showed in 1979 that a smaller state is in everyone's interests and by articulating working-class values (proper working-class values before these were corrupted by 1960s liberalism) she persuaded more working-class people than ever to vote Conservative (including me, the son of a former miner and a cotton-mill girl born in a road not unlike Coronation Street)

While these polls are highly satisfactory, if we don't start responding to the concerns of the working class the long-term consequences could be unpleasant. We do need to show "the vision thing" and demonstrate to Gordon's underclass that there is a way out of their misery.

[Conspiracy]

Malcolm Dunn - On one hand it's great that the Tories have a fairly good lead, on the other hand I wish they were a bit more than the same Policticaly Correct bunch of lawyers, and part trolls in a blue as oppsosed to a red box.

[eugene]

Many people here seem to explain the Labour vote as a result of many working for the State. Hey! I work for the State- we work damn hard , have loads of old Eastern bloc 'targets' set, pesky Ministers who keep interfering and moving the goal posts (and incidentally, who do not understand how things work)

....and I can count the Labour voters in my work place on one hand.

So, it does not necessarily follow that State employees vote Labour. To the contrary.

[Conspiracy]

Eugene - no but all the imported immigrants (3 million plus since 1997) do.

[Conspiracy]

Eugene - but most of the 3 million plus immigrants who have arrived since 1997 do

[Conspiracy]

Eugene - But there are millions who did not live here before 1997 who will.

[The Bishop Swine]

Is this the start of our Surge ?

I belive that the nation smells a rat, we are being robbed blind of all our money and it is being given to Bankers ? This is a grab and the Governement is grabbing. Will it be to late by the time we get in ?
13% is better but its got to go further we need Billions spent prehaps but on Homes on Jobs on growth, not given to the bankers who then sit on it. Labour's end game will not be pretty.

[dcj]

Until very recently I worked for the State and in my office some 75% of the younger people who had been fooled by Bliar in 1997 would never vote for him or Labour again. It's not the workers - any many state workers do do good, hard, worthwhile work - but it's the non-workers and the managers, "real nappy co-ordinators" and "community organisers" who know they would have a nasty time in the real world of private enterprise who are Labour's bedrock vote.

[The bIshop swine]

This is a self inflicted recession. This governement is activly feeding the recession.
"They" belive only a savage slowdown can stop us going over the edge into self inflicted amageddon.This slow down suits me just fine, I belive we need to put the brakes on, and some. If the reality is perminant depression people will be more willing to embrace real changes. Its not the slow down that worries me, its the problems the unemployed bring on themselves. I fear that the citys will become very dark dank places. I welcome the reduction in expectations and the slowing of the distruction of the planet.It is plain that the best atidote is the freeing up of ristrictions. We need to encorage people to find more in less.

[somerset rebel]

Impossible to believe, but the BBC teletext isn't reporting these poll leads yet whilst ITN is. Anyone would almost suspect bias - extraordinary!

[Henry Mayhew - ukipper]

Well done Tories. See you at the Euros.

[AC]

A response to northernlass: I too am unemployed. I'm not claiming any benefits and so I know nothing about the 'inflation-proof' nature of them, but to say that the Labour Party is the best for the unemployed is simply not true. I have hope that the next Conservative government will once again foster a culture of private enterprise, generating jobs through sound business tax policies rather than through an expansion of the state.

[Gloy Plopwell]

I have to admit it's taking a tiny bit longer than I thought for the Lib dems to progress, as expected to be ahead of Labour at xmas. But it will be achieved very soon. At least this is way above the 11% when had to very sadly decopitate poor Ming in 2007. So the stupendous momentum is still there. By the end of 2009, Lib dems will be ahead of Tories aswell as Labour, with that overall Lib Dem majority of 50-60 in 2010. It's very excriting. Voters will come flocking back!

[dcj]

A downwards movement of 1% is tremendous momentum?

If so, I'm all for it.

[Patsy Sergeant]

It wouldn't surprise me if a fair percentage of that 32%, actually did not have Brown in mind, when asked who they would vote for. I can quite believe that there are people who vote for the CONCEPT of a Labour government, without reference to the quality and ?efficiency? of the present encumbents - few of whom they would actually be aware of!!

[Patsy Sergeant]

Bring it on Glue Plopwell, decopulate - sorry decopitate, or perhaps you meant to decapitate poor Ming!

[Richard]

This is great news,

For the 3rd of the population still voting Labour,WHAT ARE YOU ON?

[Richard]

I have been interested in the Scottish Polling also,although I am English.

Conservatives on 28% in Scotland,that is unheard of.

Labour laughed when DC said,there were no no-go areas for the Conservatives.

Who's laughing now?

[RichardJ]

"Rogue poll. Just ignore."

I seem to remember NorthernMonkey getting cocky when Labour were catching up a couple of months ago.

I seem to recall a proverb about counting chickens.

Incidently we shouldn't crow about this either. Instead we should be concentrating on knocking Labour back down to the mid-20s.

[Opinicus]

Got to give credit where its due.
Always said Yougov was the only poll I trusted.

I just hope the disappointment's not too big, when we get in.

[Tapestry]

Gordon Brown said that he would save the world and people laughed at him. Well no one is laughing now.

[Conspiracy]

Actually, Brown said he had saved the world......

[TomTom]

Given that 50% of adults in this country now depend on the state for 70%+ of their income, it's not surprising that there's an inbuilt, sizable Labour block vote.

That's an interesting theory since it suggests all those City types in quasi-nationalised banks will now vote Labour and all the Legal Aid Barristers and businesses using government loan guarantees plus all the soldiers and officers in the Armed Forces and all the advertising executives who see the government as largest advertiser.

So how do the Tories manage 45% in polls ?

It is so Marxist to assume everyone is an economic unit - some people actually care about the country even if they do not have a job or are pensioners - both receive benefits but regard them as payments from an insurance fund for which they have paid premia.

They don't need to be told they are Labour voters because they get payments from the Exchequer by silly people who exhibit prejudice rather than reason. The 32% polling figure is rubbish anyway and Labour is probably sitting around 26% of those actually likely to vote. We still return to the fact that in General Elections seats matter and in Euro elections votes matter

[pp]

Isn't this exactly what every one expected, but daren't say?

However much things are discussed, however many angles you look at it, labour are hopeless and have nothing to offer apart from more decline.

I think the main things these good polls give is feeling of relief - relief in knowing that the public are rational after all.

Once the tories are in and and those of the 'client state' are moved into real work generating wealth (for themselves, the issues they support and the country) labour and socialism will be burried for good.

[C List and Proud]

My benefits are inflation proofed and because I am out of work I get my rent paid so I can't complain.Brown is best for the unemployed in my book.

Posted by: Northernlass | January 17, 2009 at 20:08

Only if you are happy to stay unemployed!

[Silent Hunter]

I tell you what guys!

If 'Dave' was to slap a 3 line whip on the Tory MP's to vote against making their expenses a Big Secret............then I think you might find that your poll lead might just head for the stratosphere.

Come on!.....DO IT!

IT'S THE 'RIGHT' THING TO DO!

Show some backbone and put some CLEAR BLUE WATER bwtween yourselves and the sleaze ridden Labour Party.

The public will love you for it.

[Essexboy]

32% of those polled would still vote for Labour.

This poll b****cks.

I don't know anybody Southern or Northern who is prepared to vote for McBroon and The McCommunist Party. There is nothing but hatred reserved for them, and to suggest that they'll receive 30 odd percent of the popular vote is absurd.

Say's all you need to know about The Sunday Times.

[AJJM]

Fantastic that we are ahead, yet disappointing.

I was hoping for higher Labour poll figures. Then the Brown Clown would be more likely to call an election.

[AJJM]

Btw, do the polls include the fact that there will be UUP/Conservative candidates in NI at the next election?

[Julian Melford]

Don't assume that people who work in the public sector automatically love the government.

Tax officials, many of whom are quite decent people, are exasperated at how complex Brown has made the tax system. Local council and NHS staff are fed up with all the initiatives, diktats and targets coming down from high. Other civil servants and the Police are fed up with the politicisation/enforced PC in public services.

Unfortunately, the Conservative alternative is higher on imagery and clear alternatives (apart from the main one of not being the Labour Party).

Don't expect all the green posturing to attract many votes, though. The public sees the environmental scary stuff as being another excuse for more taxation. In any case the 8% that feels that the environment is the main priority will probably be solid Green Party or LibDem flat-earth voters who wouldn't be seen dead voting Conservative.

[Paul J]

One of the key points to draw from these polls is that a 9% lead is necessarily enough to give us a working House of Commons majority because of Labour's gerrymandered constituencies.

To get rid of this awful government, we're going to have to fight the election as if we were neck and neck in the polls no matter what our opinion poll lead might be. If it works we will either win a narrow majority or we will give Labout a 1997 style thumping.

In any event there is absolutely no room for complacency whatsoever.

[DCMX]

Even the Mirror admits Brown bounce is over:

"The Tories have doubled their lead over Labour in the past month, according to a new poll out today.

The survey put the Conservatives on 45 per cent, up four points and 13 points ahead of Labour, who were down three on 32 per cent.

That compares with a six-point Tory advantage last month and represents the biggest lead for the Conservatives in a YouGov poll since early October.

The Liberal Democrats were down one to 14 per cent in the Sunday Times poll - which shows the "Brown bounce" from the Prime Minister's handling of the credit crisis is over."

[Steve Foley]

I would think that both Labour and Tory Parties have a core vote of 35% and if you give the Lib-Dems a core of 15% that gives 15% to win or lose the election. Some of that will go to the various Nationalists or Unionists, significant in their own regions but only totalling about 5% in the big picture so in effect there is 10% of the electorate to play for.

This looks quite reasonable until one takes into account Tactical Voting, and the fact that here are many Labour Seats that are below the average constituency size and many Tory ones that are oversize although the redistribution coming into effect at the next General Election may compensate to some extent for that.

One thing the Conservative Party cannot afford is to become complacent as did seem to be the case post Crewe and Nantwich and the 2008 Locals until the autumn of last year.

[T. England]

I think what I said on Monday’s poll result, holds up here as well, http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2009/01/gordon-brown-bo.html#comment-144892496

I’d like to think people were thinking the same as I was on the angry post!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/01/brown-should-wo.html#comment-145196468

SO!

Don’t you have to conclude that because Brown doesn’t have much of a personality & can’t communicate his message clearly, not only because he’s so boring to listen to but because it’s hard to understand his murmurings, people just wanted him to fix things or get off the stage? They don’t want to look at him too much or listen to him any longer than completely necessary.

He hasn’t fixed things, people now also see that unless other leaders around the world hold his hand he doesn’t have a chance of fixing things anyhow even if he knew how to & because not only is the British cupboard so completely bare after eleven long disastrous years of Labour sticking it’s dirty paws in there but it’s now been taken to the pawn shop, why would the public look to Brown anyhow? Surely you’d have to be stupid to look to someone who got you, let you get in, such a mess?
What I can’t believe is Labour aren’t doing worse than they are?

As we look around Labours Britain today what has it done?
Labour not only has an unpopular unelected leader but a crumbling society & a more terrible time to come, is there no one who can save Brown now?
What about his lefty hero Obama, the man of the hour, the man who can fix his economy by putting people back to work in jobs that are going to be paid for with money that has been helicopter’d in!! Easy! Job done!!! Hooray! Crowd goes wild!!!

NO ONE, not walking on water Obama or even the magical wizard of the EU with its magic accounts book is going to save Britain, as per usual we British, with a good leader, can save ourselves & with a little protectionism will become a power house once again.

Time labour admitted it’s been faking it at being a government & let the professionals take over to put things right :O)

[AS Evans]

What has to be remembered Essexboy is that there are a great number of people in this country without a great number of braincells; and unfortunately they have as much of a right to vote as we do.

However, i do agree that The Sunday Time is simply a ridiculous populist pestilence that forsakes fact and truth in favour of 'balance' and political correctness.