According to Political Betting - and also now confirmed by the Press Association - tomorrow's Sunday Times carries a new YouGov opinion poll which puts the parties on the following percentages:
Comparisons are with the most recent YouGov survey for the Sun earlier this month, which gave the Tories a 7% lead.
YouGov interviewed 2,077 adults online, across Britain, on Thursday and Friday.
7.45pm Update: ComRes also has a poll out tomorrow
Sunday Update: The detailed breakdown of the poll is now online and several readers have pointed out the interesting figures for Scotland - namely Others (mainly SNP) on 30% with the Conservatives and Labour level pegging on 28%, which is considerably higher than the Tories have been doing in Scotland for some years. There is the obvious health warning, though, that on its own it is a small sample, ie a couple of hundred people.
Excellent poll from YouGov which continues the trend set by the Populus poll earlier in the week.
As Sean Fear has just noted on PB.com, it certainly appears to prove Anthony Wells’ thesis correct.
Posted by: ChrisD | January 17, 2009 at 18:59
Lots of Cameron on the TV with some good policies + people remembering why they didn't like Brown in the first place = growing poll lead.
Now sit back and watch Com Res try to throw a spanner in the works later tonight.
Posted by: David (One of many) | January 17, 2009 at 19:00
Forgive me Chris, I hear that bounded around a lot, but I don't actually know what it is. Or rather, I've probably heard the theory, just not the person. Care to enlighten moi?
Posted by: David (One of many) | January 17, 2009 at 19:02
I think IIRC, the reference is to the theory of Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com which says that "the more Cameron is on the telly, the better the Conservatives do". Don't forget Mike's other golden rule either.. "A rogue poll is one where you dont agree with the figures"!!!
Posted by: Bernard from Horsham | January 17, 2009 at 19:13
I think people are seriously underestimating how the Cameron project is going to pretty much destroy the LibDims, especially since they decided to elect as leader someone just like Cameron but with a tenth of the airtime.
Posted by: Michael Heaver | January 17, 2009 at 19:16
Great news. It will be interesting to see if any of those who criticise the Conservatives so often on this blog chooose to comment on this thread.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | January 17, 2009 at 19:19
David, this is the article that Anthony Wells posted on his excellent UK polling report site which set out his thesis, well worth bookmarking his site for the polling information.
The abyss ahead of Gordon Brown…
He posted a further article about this last week as well. Economic confidence on the wane again
The other important factor has got to be the high profile that Cameron has maintained recently. In what has become known as the Mike Smithson rule, when Cameron is in the public eye, the Tory polling figures go up.
Posted by: ChrisD | January 17, 2009 at 19:19
Many thanks, both of you. As I thought - I knew the theories, but not in relation to the names.
Posted by: David (One of many) | January 17, 2009 at 19:28
Geat news - just shows that Cameron does connect with the voters.He is our greatest asset.
ComeRes tonight is showing a 9pt lead for us. Not as great a lead but still very encouraging.
Posted by: Peter Buss | January 17, 2009 at 19:33
Nice poll!
Still amazed one in three want to vote Labour:
They mess around with free markets and red tape which annoy the rich.
They mess around with taxes and charge all their excesses to the middle class.
They mess around with tax rates and steal from the poor (10 % band), lead them to lose their jobs by not restricting silly bank lending to richer people when it mattered. They add insult to injury by asking the poor to live on benefits of £40 a week in bedsits and they must 'go work' to keep this tiny sum.
They restrict our lives with silly rules like no salt in the school canteen and spy on us when we take out our rubbish.
They offend, annoy and bankrupt everybody.
How on earth do these guys get 32 % ?!
Posted by: eugene | January 17, 2009 at 19:35
Rogue poll. Just ignore.
Posted by: NorthernMonkey | January 17, 2009 at 19:38
I agree with Northern Monkey. If 32% of people are still retarded enough to want five more years of Jonah Brown, it must be a rogue.
Posted by: Cleethorpes Rock | January 17, 2009 at 19:47
"How on earth do these guys get 32 % ?!"
Two factors:
Firstly those voters dependent upon an ever growing state sector - the non-jobs, the welfare layabouts, the various 'consultants' etc.
Secondly the 'our family has always been Labour, they're the party for the working class' types.
The next Conservative government must reduce the first type and educate the second.
Posted by: Another Richard | January 17, 2009 at 19:49
ComRes 9 pts?
ComRes is a load of bull*
Posted by: Ann W | January 17, 2009 at 19:49
"ComeRes tonight is showing a 9pt lead for us. Not as great a lead but still very encouraging."
Peter, the ComRes poll is also excellent for us too. Mike Smithson of PB.com is forever having to point out that you cannot compare different pollsters figures, you must compare like with like.
We have doubled our YouGov lead tonight, but remember that the December ComRes poll had us just 1% ahead of Labour. In that context, this is quite a dramatic increase from them.
Posted by: ChrisD | January 17, 2009 at 19:50
"Rogue poll. Just ignore."
Which one?
The Populus last week which had the Conservative lead increasing by 6%.
The YouGov which has it up by 6%.
Or the ComRes which has is up by 4%?
Posted by: Another Richard | January 17, 2009 at 19:52
The fact that, as Cleethorpes and eugene highlight, a third of the electorate would vote for Bruin is amazing. Is the country one third full of people who wish to see this country reduced to abject penury?
Posted by: john broughton | January 17, 2009 at 19:54
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