The latest ConHome poll of polls is still pointing to a hung parliament (I can't believe that will last as the economic news gets grimmer and grimmer) and Peter Oborne believes that Labour and certain Liberal Democrats are now positioning for a coalition. Here are three quotes from his piece in the Daily Mail:
"[Brown] is seriously toying with the idea of bringing the Liberal Democrats into a possible coalition. Private discussions - all, of course, totally deniable - are taking place secretly."
"First, there are signs of a deal being thrashed out between Downing Street and the LibDems over the appointment of the next Commons Speaker... The [Labour] Whips' Office has already launched a campaign to get Labour MPs to back former LibDem leader Sir Menzies Campbell to become the new Speaker."
Second: "It is normal, as an announcement of the date of polling day becomes imminent, for the opposition party to be granted limited access to the machinery of the Civil Service in order to go through their plans for government. However, this traditional arrangement has been unexpectedly altered. Gordon Brown (to the embarrassment of the Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell) has gone out of his way to try to prevent the Conservatives gaining their normal access to Permanent Secretaries. After criticism of this controversial ploy, Brown eventually was forced to grudgingly relent - but only on one condition. In a departure from recent precedent, he has also authorised-Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats to be given full access to key civil servants."
Oborne goes on to mention the possibility of Vince Cable become Chancellor - he recently praised Brown's handling of the economic crisis - and Paddy Ashdown becoming Defence Secretary.
The great problem with this scheme - already floated before Christmas by Iain Martin - is that a number of Orange Book Liberal Democrats - notably Jeremy Browne and David Laws - will hate the idea of a coalition with Labour. The Tories have long sought defectors from the parliamentary Liberal Democrats. If Clegg allows Ashdown-Cable-Campbell to push him towards a LibLab pact (and it's far from clear that he is happy with the talk according to Oborne) he may find he loses MPs (and more councillors) to the Conservatives. In the long run it will destroy the Liberal Democrat brand in southern England if they prop up a Labour government that the voters of, for example, Taunton, Richmond and Sutton and Cheam wanted out.
Tim Montgomerie
Would the Lib Dems really be that stupid? Also where does PR come into it, can't believe the Lib Dems would do any deal with that.
Posted by: Andrew Woodman | January 03, 2009 at 09:01
The Lib Dems are and have for a long time been an anti-Tory party. You only have to read the idiotic bile on Lib Dem voice to get that, even if you've never encountered the yellow peril in the wild.
There is no real reason for the Lib Dems to exist as a party when Socialism has declined in favour of this leftist soup of Marxism, social democracy with assorted prejudices and bigotry thrown in that is as tasty to Lib Dems as it is to Labour.
What should happen, and will eventually, is that the forces of Conservatism will reverse the gains of 1997 and 1992 which saw the ascent of the Lib Dems on the coat tails of Labour.
We should of course carry on rounding up the lost sheep who've found themselves in the Lib Dems by accident and conclude it's the wrong place for them. To that end love bombing the bastards is a good strategy.
But ultimately the Lib Dems and Labour will merge. It may be that the Lib Dems are the stronger party in the merger if Labour is wiped out as we were in 1997. With no local government base, leadership or poltical compass the Lib dems could revitalize the left - but only as part of new political force.
As for coalition, well, if they try it they'll rue the day. As much as the Lib Dems hate the Tories the public would prefer they work with us. Which is what puts them in a bind.
Posted by: Old Hack | January 03, 2009 at 09:24
We should not take on a single Lib Dem member who crosses the floor unless he signs a document condemning his party's campaigning methods, agreeing that he has been complicit in deceit by being a member of that party and apologises for it.
We do not want or need there sort of campaigning in our party.
Posted by: Metallica's Armpit | January 03, 2009 at 09:38
"In the long run it will destroy the Liberal Democrat brand in southern England if they prop up a Labour government that the voters of, for example, Taunton, Richmond and Sutton and Cheam wanted out."
Not to mention the voters of Sheffield Hallam.
Notice that none of the Labour appeasers among the LibDems comes from England.
Posted by: Another Richard | January 03, 2009 at 09:51
Old Hack: To that end love bombing the b*****ds is a good strategy.
Not quite got the hang of this "love-bombing" thing yet, have you, Old Hack?!!
Posted by: Richard Carey | January 03, 2009 at 10:02
It doesn't say much for Nick Clegg's authority that coalition speculation is taking place without his consent.
I heard his interview on Today and he was yet again dogged by questions about the number of women he has slept with.
Posted by: Westminster Wolf | January 03, 2009 at 10:09
"Notice that none of the Labour appeasers among the LibDems comes from England."
As such this could give the Conservatives to opportunity to wipe both Labour and the Libdems out of England by countering the LibLab alliance with an offer of an English Parliament to the English electorate.
Unfortunately the Conservative high command hate English people just as much as the Scottish Raj running Labour and the Libdems, and would prefer to have a LibLab Government than themselves in Government with an English Parliament.
Posted by: Iain | January 03, 2009 at 10:22
If people are so against a lib-lab coalition, what do they think should happen in the event of a hung parliament in which Labour has the most seats?
Posted by: comstock | January 03, 2009 at 10:47
I don't think Nick Clegg would ever consider such a deal. Labour is far to contradictory to his liberal instincts, he just wouldn't be able to live with himself!
Posted by: Ben | January 03, 2009 at 10:58
OK - "nasty" Tory comments continue to flow !! If Tories are so scared of a Lib.Dem-Lab government, what five main policy points would Tories propose for a Lib.Dem-Conservative coalition ?
Posted by: Roberts | January 03, 2009 at 11:23
This is an idea that's been floating for the last few weeks but it's a non-starter. You have to remember that Brown is an intensely tribal and partisan politician, he hates the Lib Dems as much as he hates us! The idea that he would govern by consensus in a coalition is laughable. His view of consensus is everyone agreeing with him! There's only a narrow electoral window that would have Labour as the largest party, I can remember Roy Jenkins saying before the 92 GE that a party which loses an overall majority has lost the confidence of the nation and is almost obliged to stand down. That's a big reason why Thorpe wouldn't do a deal with Heath in 1974. If Brown doesn't have the most MP's after the GE it would be very dangerous for Clegg to prop up a PM who had been rejected by the electorate and I think Clegg knows that.
Posted by: South Down Tory | January 03, 2009 at 11:40
Labour deliberatley spread this type of rumour so the that the Lib-dems, such as Vince Cable, don't slag them off badly when interviewed by the BBC (although the BBC would stop using him,if he did).
Labour don't want both Tory and Lib Dems attacking them as it gives any criticism more weight and legitamcy to a floating voter. Labour pulled this trick with Paddy Ashdown in '97 so that the middle-ground would be put at ease to vote Labour, then told him to get lost after they had won.
Posted by: SRN | January 03, 2009 at 11:40
The electorate wouldnt forgive them if they propped up a Brown administration.
Posted by: Ulster Tory | January 03, 2009 at 11:43
If the we know that a vote for the Cleggnuts serves only to preserve the current regime then the option for Tarquin and Tabitha to register a tactical vote in Basingstoke disappears. Ergo, the two party choice is made clearer. If there is an electoral pact to stand aside then all the better.
So, as a Tory, I shall mainly be suggesting that a vote for the Cleggies is a vote for Labour and will consider writing a piece about it to muddy the water and even go as far as to suggest that Pantsdown and Ming the Mirthless are on a shoe-in thereby side-lining the Blair/Cameron looky-likey's authority.
'OK - "nasty" Tory comments continue to flow !! If Tories are so scared of a Lib.Dem-Lab government, what five main policy points would Tories propose for a Lib.Dem-Conservative coalition ?'
Okey-dokey:
1. More woolly jumpers for bumble bees.
2. More job share opportunities in the procurement of multi-media installations in NHS facilities facilitating of the struggle of the Tolpuddle Martyrs outreach sector.
3. Use Dayglo paint schemes on military vehicles to make thing fairer.
4. Recreational narcotics: Encourage the discussion and learning through play schemes in pre-schools. Phonetics: S is for spliff.
5. Remind people that a Clegg, or dag as it is known in Scotland, is a piece of faecal matter adhering to the hindquarters of a sheep usually removed with clippers and until relatively recently used in the cosmetics industry (lanolin).
Posted by: Pulvertaft | January 03, 2009 at 12:09
Is Pulvertaft the best the Tories can do ? Come on, outline five serious policy directions for a Tory-Lib Dem government otherwise who can blame Lib Dems for even thinking about a Labour-Lib Dem coalition ?
Posted by: Roberts | January 03, 2009 at 12:36
Roberts:
Actually, I think there is considerable overlap between the policy positions of the Tories and the Lib Dems. They may come at things from different positions, but political reality means that on many issues they advocate more or less the same things. So, five serious policy directions could be...
1. Tax Reform - simpler and (slightly) lower taxes, taking the poor out of income tax altogether.
2. Schools Reform - Gove and Laws basically see eye-to-eye on this
3. NHS Reform - there's not much to seperate Tories and Lib Dems here. Both are advocating decentralisation, greater professional autonomy, patient choice, and a shift in focus towards 'public health' issues.
4. Civil Liberties - they could work together to undo Labour's authoritarianism.
5. Localism - Both sides support more powers and greater autonomy for councils.
Personally, I think that's a pretty decent agenda for a coalition government.
Obviously, there are a few snags. There remain massive divisions between the parties on the EU (potentially a coaltion-wrecker) and energy policy (where the Lib Dems immovably anti-nuclear). It's probably all moot though, since the Lib Dems won't do a coalition without PR, and the Tories will never accept it.
Posted by: TC | January 03, 2009 at 12:59
Messrs Roberts
Why would we? Think about it for a wee bit. As outlined, we have already stitched them up by association and you only serve to feed the strategy.
Any views on bumble bees?
Posted by: Pulvertaft | January 03, 2009 at 13:04
Thanks to TC for his proposals. At last a serious response. As for Pulvertaft and his bumble bees ! Do they have a really nasty sting ?
Just listened to Nick Clegg on the Today programme - a serious politician for serious times.
In the event of no one party having a majority sufficient to form a government would the Tories approach the Lib Dems ?
Posted by: Roberts | January 03, 2009 at 13:26
"Just listened to Nick Clegg on the Today programme - a serious politician for serious times."
Must have heard a different interview to the one I heard. He sounded like a sixth form A level student with no depth to me.
His answers to the economic crisis are...
1. Make the banks lend more - well that's hardly a sole Lib Dem policy now is it?
2. Find £20billion from somewhere unspecificied for some sort of tax cuts. Well, I am a big fan if tax cuts, and I am pleased that the Conservatives are slowly rolling ours out (Inheritance Tax, freezing Council Tax, National Insurance, and sonn to be announced cuts in tax on savings income amng others). I am also very pleased that every Conservative tax cut announced is fully funded.
Posted by: James | January 03, 2009 at 14:37
Let's not get carried away with the notion that the Lib Dems attract anti-tory votes in the North of England.
If you look at the likes of Newcastle and Gateshead they hold the former Tory strongholds of Gosforth, Jesmond, Dene, Low Fell, Whickham (the list goes on) on anti-Labour votes. A Lib-Lab pack would destroy the Lib Dems in the North.
Posted by: George Washington | January 03, 2009 at 15:46
A Lib/Lab pact would go a long way to destroying the LibDems.
LibDem activists are lefties, but many of their voters think the Party is made up of 'soft' Tories - pairing up with Labour will frighten off the soft Tory voters into the waiting arms of the Conservative candidates in marginal seats.
As for Cable - a legend in his own lunchtime!
Posted by: sjm | January 03, 2009 at 16:25
My suggestions for Lib Con operation:
1/ End to ID cards and repeal of other Labour authoritarianism
2/ Green taxes up, income taxes down
3/ New powers for local governments
4/ An elected House of Lords
5/ Closing the DTI or whatever it's called now.
Posted by: Felicity Mountjoy | January 03, 2009 at 16:47
My five aims for a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition would be:-
1)Finding the £20 billion in public spending cuts that the Liberals want and using them to raise the basic personal allowance,
2)Regaining powers from Brussels & devolving more to local councils in a way that reduces burdens on small/medium sized businesses and which enhances democratic participation,
3)Greater choice in health & education via cash following the service user thus forcing state services to raise their standards or lose money,
4)A Citizenship Pension to slash poverty & encourage thrift,
5)Reversing the Blair-Brown erosion of our basic liberties by ending ID cards , Orwellian data bases etc.
How is that for an adult reply to a sensible question ?
Posted by: Matthew Reynolds | January 03, 2009 at 17:04
If Cameron had been much more clever and stuck more to the centre ground he tried to occupy when he first become leader he could have easily negotiated some sort of understanding with the Lib/Dems but I am afraid not now. He lost that possibility when he suddenly decided he had to play up to the right and start to pretend he was Thatcher in trousers.
Posted by: Jack Stone | January 03, 2009 at 17:44
Oh hello, Jack! I see Trolling Time is here again!
Posted by: Sally Roberts | January 03, 2009 at 18:04
What? (not you Sally). On earth are we doing even vaguely-ish considering a LibDem/Tory option?
It's pretty depressing that surrender monkeying can even descend to this level of discussion. We should be, we will be*, looking at ten years+ consequent to the current lunacy.
Adult? It is called derision.
*Subject to David
Posted by: Pulvertaft | January 03, 2009 at 18:58
Before any of us decide who to vote for, I ask you to look out of the window. Man Made Global Warming is not happenning, we are probably in for an Ice Age, whether little or long, only God knows, our most noisy scientists and politicians cetainly dont.
Posted by: John Prendergast | January 03, 2009 at 19:41
Sally is that all that you have to say for yourself. That makes a change!!
Cameron had the opportunity to put together a coalition that would have kept Labour out of power for a generation and he messed it up. The party will regret it when it loses the next election.
Posted by: Jack Stone | January 03, 2009 at 20:10
Must've been a different interview from the one I heard too Roberts.Whatever your political viewpoint he was very ,very poor constantly refusing to expand on his soundbites. Even the always dignified Srah Montague seemed to be getting a bit fed up by the end. I doubt Clegg would have persuaded any floating voters at all with that sort of performance. It'll be interesting to see how the Lib Dems do in the polls over the next few weeks. Cable has been pretty quiet recently and as he's the only senior Lib Dem with any credibility at all I'll expect them to fall.
As regards the central point of this thread I would be very suprised if the Lib Dems would want to become closer to Brown unless they felt that the only other choice was electoral oblivion. Brown is an authoritarian to his finger tips, he's also a busted flush which will become clearer and clearer throughout the coming year. I doubt the Lib Dems would be that stupid.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | January 03, 2009 at 22:12
Draper-Stone,
Just in case you haven't noticed, this is a site for CONSERVATIVES - and we will win the election whenever Brown calls it, which will be one in the eye for your boss Draper.
Posted by: Super Blue | January 03, 2009 at 22:15
Even though we will win, I'd love this to happen, purely because it would destroy the Lib Dems' reputation! And I think Sir Ming would be a good Speaker.
Posted by: Stefan | January 03, 2009 at 22:27
An interesting set of replies on here, but of course a lib/lab coalition wouldn't neccessarily have to be with Brown. If Labour lost (say) 40 seats, then Brown might feel his authority is gone and resign, leaving his sucessor to try to form a government.
Posted by: comstock | January 03, 2009 at 22:31
But the Lib Dems will be in government themselves in 2010 anyway. There's not going to be any patt or coalition because there's no need! It's a very excriting time for the lib dems.
In Hornsea and Wood Green, Lynne Featherstone's majority will be up from 3,000 to at least 20,000, with suspendors momentum.
Posted by: Gloy Plopwell | January 03, 2009 at 23:12
The title of the thread is - 'Is Brown scheming for a coalition with the Liberal Democrats', but few comments are answering that question! Most are speculating as to what LibDems would do.
As Malcolm Dunn said @ 22.12 'Brown is an authoriatarian to his fingertips....' and along with that goes a kind of arrogance that doesn't take 'no' for an answer!
One needs to ask WHY Brown might be considering these moves. Of course the obvious answer is because just maybe he is beginning to realise that, having 'saved the world', the economy is not getting better, and apparently the public are not yet prepared to welcome him wholeheartedly as the saviour that he wants to be! SO, he looks about as to how to conquer his enemy - David Cameron (which after all is his all-consuming aim!), and he sees a lookey-likey that is still wet behind the ears - given that Mr. Brown is middle-aged now, it is more than likely that, that is how he regards Mr. Clegg. So he thinks, (well I suppose Mandelson could be whispering behind him!), this young whipper-snapper will jump at the chance to achieve some sort of recognition. And who is to say that he might not just be swayed??!!
Then there is Mr. Cable, perhaps he would need to be reminded that if he did agree to support Labour, he would hardly be allowed the amusing freedom of comment, that brought him to everybodies attention in the first place! He needs to be reminded of how emasculated Mr. Darling has become, because that is the sort of role Mr. Cable would be expected to play! Mr. Brown does NOT tolerate anybody getting more positive column inches than himself - not even with bananas! And he is only going to get worse aas time goes on!! So Mr. Cable .....
Posted by: Patsy Sergeant | January 03, 2009 at 23:19
Well done Christina!
At least you didn't reply to Gloy Plopwell this time.
Posted by: Always at wit send | January 03, 2009 at 23:41
If we do have a Lab-Lib Dem coalition that is the end of democracy, what would be the point of voting unless they declared before hand that they were going to fight the election as two parties in coalition. Policy made after the election by negotiations in smoke filled rooms is not democracy.
The Lib Dems would be mad to contemplate such a move it would be the end of their party.
Posted by: Onemarcus | January 04, 2009 at 14:12
Superglue I won`t answer the silly points but I`m afraid the Consrvatives will not win the election because they have not learned the lesson that Britain as moved on and nineteen eighty solutions to problems are not want the country needs or wants or even why the party as been out of power now for getting on for twelve years.
I am afraid the Conservative Party will continue to be unelectable until it really changes.
Posted by: Jack Stone | January 04, 2009 at 19:46