Ipsos Mori poll gives Tories a 14% lead

The Ipsos-MORI January Political Monitor has been published tonight and puts the parties on the following percentages:

Comparisons are with the equivalent poll in December.

The fieldwork saw 1,005 adults interviewed between Friday and Sunday.

Comments

[Andrew Woodman]

Excellent, 2010 looking more and more likely.

[James Burdett]

Another good poll. Hopefully we will keep it up!

[Don]

Can anybody point me to details of the last three polls on Labour list. It is such a mess that I cannot find them. That is of course assuming that a blog dedicated to open discussion has actually posted them. If they do not appear in the next 24 hours Labour list can officially be declared as stillborn.

[Iain]

Am I mistaken in noticing that when the Blue Labour faction come to the fore Conservatives shed support, but when traditional Conservative values are being promoted the Conservatives do well in the polls?

[Tynemouth Tory]

14%? And we think this is good.

Given the shambolic state this Government has got this country in with seemingly no idea how to get us out, our lead should be 40% not 14%.

It really isn't good enough, we are letting the country down.

[Raj]

Given the shambolic state this Government has got this country in with seemingly no idea how to get us out, our lead should be 40% not 14%.

No, you are aiming too low - it should be 400%!

[Votedave]

Is this the same Tynemouth Tory who posts as a UKIP supporter on UK Polling Report? Labour weren't even 14% ahead in their 1997 landslide.
The last few polls have been very encouraging indeed. After what happened to the polls in autumn, however, it is even more important that we do not become complacent.

[James Hopkins]

Oh yes, we should certainly be expecting a 40% lead, that is realistic! Cameron should resign, Osborne should resign, they should all resign because we haven't got a 40% lead! Come off! I know we shouldn't be complacent, but we have risen nearly 10 per cent in the polls in the last few days. Only last week everyone was talking about a hung parliament. Now we're talking about a 100+ seat majority! Ok, the electorate is looking pretty volatile at the moment, but that isn't a bad improvement in a week or two!

[Ian Bruce]

Think Iain is being optimistic thinking that its that simple. Polls go up and down and thats life. The Labour polling figures went up this time because people felt nervous and saw him doing something. Now its going down as people realise its not the right thing / its not making any difference.

Tynemouth Tory - I'm not sure if you're being tongue in cheek or not, but a 40% lead is never going to happen. I do think we'll see the lead stabilise around the 15-20% mark though.

[YMT]

I am outraged, as the previous posters have pointed out we should obviously be up 10 bijillion percent or more above of Labour, we must all join UKIP right now. Euro made me fat and bald! rabble rabble rabble!!!

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Good news! But, as others have suggested, how are Labour still receiving such a relatively high rating? After all, union and Labour Party members' votes cannot explain this away?

Conservative values and policies should be promoted, far more vigorously. Too many people seem to be influenced by Labour's ridiculous "do nothing" claim, which they continue to direct at Conservatives?

[NorthernMonkey]

Obviously another rogue. Just ignore.

[James]

Actually, all the evidence (and I mean actual polling evidence - have a look at some of the excellent analysis on UK Polling Report) points to the 'do nothing' charge having had very little traction with the public.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

The vast majority of us would rather ignore you, "NorthernMonkey"!

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Thanks, James. I will take a look at UK Polling Report's analysis.

[StevenAdams]

I think that posters (especially Tynemouth Tory) shoud remember that the UK is essentially a two party system, with the two leading parties having been very well ensconced for a very long time. Each will have a very hard core support that will take a long time to break down, and I'd suspect that we're nearing Labour's. I actually don't think we're there yet, but certainly near it.

Nobody ever talked about Maggie's majority as pathetic after Labour wrecked the economy in the '70's, and yet she'd have been very happy with this poll lead! But to the Ukippers above I'm sure that this is merely evidence of DC's failure. God help us.

[StevenAdams]

*should

[NigelC]

The high NuLab figures come from the roughly 25% of people work in the public sector- turkeys don't vote for Christmas - plus the hard core

[MG]

The two main parties appear to have a core of about 30% with a group in the middle that fluctaute between the two depending on the situation and what is being proposed.

[Robert Eve]

Trouble with this is that by 2010 the Irish may have capitulated in Lisbon 2.

Better Off Out.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Without David Cameron as leader, perhaps the poll differentials would have been less impressive?

[john broughton]

Clearly nothing to do with KC!

[praguetory]

It's always interesting to see real election results against this type of backdrop. There is a byelection in Wolverhampton Heathtown in early Feb with a strong possibility of a Con gain in this climate.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

The return of John Redwood or David Davis would have been a wise move, perhaps? I know that many others, would also welcome their return!

If only Ken's views on the EU were different, John? I will be surprised, if he does not prove to be a divisive influence. To some degree, this is already true.

[Oberon Houston]

I think many of you guys are seriously underestimating the Labour Party election machine. We need MINIMUM 12 point lead just to get a working majority, in reality we need 14 points for a minimum working majority given the head-bangers who would rather bring down a Tory Govt. on principle and see the Socialists run the country than vote for a European bill on parquet flooring. How low do we need to go before we can unite around a (roughly) common purpose?

[Raj]

There is a byelection in Wolverhampton Heathtown in early Feb with a strong possibility of a Con gain in this climate.

I would take your word for it, but either result is not going to make an impact nor be much of an indication of a national trend.

[Conand]

'how are Labour still receiving such a relatively high rating?' - Julian L Hawksworth @ 22:10

These figures suggest that about 80% of those elligible to vote won't vote for Labour at the next GE.

[Ted]

Oberon - think the EU elections will show UKIP a much diminished force and by the election anything above 40% will return a Conservative Government.

[sjm]

I wonder if posters could lay off the whinges about all civil servants and the unemployed being thoughtless Labour supporters.

First of all, it's patently untrue, and secondly, you are ignoring a significant number of educated, affluent voters who sincerely believe that the current problems are due to insufficient Government intervention rather than too much.

I have four life-long friends who fit neatly into that category, and we have learned not to get too heavily involved in political discussions in a social setting, so as not to fracture valued friendships.

[RichardJ]

"The vast majority of us would rather ignore you, "NorthernMonkey"!"

He used to make some worthwhile contributions but has now been reduced to making snyde comments. I think he's miffed that he got too cocky about Labour's pre-Christmas catch-up

[A Cllr]

Where are the trolls?

[Dave B]

"Early January has long been regarded as the best moment to take a reading of the levels of support for each party.With little political news or activity over the Christmas break people tend to tune out ofpolitics and current affairs,providing an ideal opportunity to gauge voters’views with minimal adulteration from passing news events."

http://www.lordashcroft.com/pdf/GeneralElectionReport.pdf

[onthejob]

woul dit be wrong to suggest a slogan for the party with a song perhas "things can only get better" imagine the irony!

[rugfish]

I never believed any of the other polls anyway. I predict an even bigger landslide than Margaret Thatcher is still achievable if we can show real differences to Labour and stop "supporting what they do because there's no other remedy available". Lots of Clear Blue Water is required. Open up a chasm of difference between us on the economy and Europe. Ask where the £37 billion went to and how the govt is accounting for it along with the salaries and fat bonuses of bankers who led our country to the verge of destruction.....This is no time for an incompetence government, the country, our economy and our politics need to be CHANGED". Will we change it before or after the UK has been bankrupted by Labour?

Rather than trying to convince us all that printing huge sums of money to insure world debt is the answer, why don't we have an election to find out whether the people are concerned more with this country than they are in trying to save the world with all our silver !!!

[Tynemouth Tory]

Rugfish makes a huge amount of sense.

In the 70's we had a bankrupt Labour Government with no idea how to proceed, rising unemployment, declining domestic output and had just been bailed out by the IMF. There was a pro-active (although the word hadn't been invented) opposition, with a leader who fired up passion within the party and country - love her or loathe her, Thatcher had ideas and conviction - which presented a real alternative to the moribund government.

In 2009 we have a bankrupt Labour Government with no idea how to proceed, rising unemployment, declining domestic output and who probably wishes they hadn't soldthegold reserves as a bail out by the IMF isn't going to happen. And... well that's about it, really.

[John]

The Brown bounce is over and the nation has seen through his desperate attempts to breath life into his economic mess will Billions of Pounds of our money.

Only pig headed tribal socialists and those on the payroll (however you define that) could vote for him now.

But a wounded animal is dangerous. The Brown/Campbell/Mandelson triumvirate will try a few more dirty tricks yet - so be on your guard...

[bexie]

re Posted by: NigelC

As the public sector is trimmed back then you will see this decline. Put simply the math dont work and so Culpability Brown is having to quietly trim contracted out projects to "charities" dependent on the new labour trough as well as leaning on local authorities to do similar.

Thes former Zanulab ponces will soon realise pon what side their bread is buttered

[pp]

By the time we get in, it will be too late to 'save' the economy - it will have to be rebuilt.

While Brown pretends that he can do something, every one is sitting on their hands waiting for him to do it. We need to turn the message around --

"ask not what the government can do for the economy, show what you can do for it (without government interferance - particularly regarding 'PC' issues, like excessive 'green', excessive 'equal opportunities' or excessive 'health and safetly')".

Brown is the problem, not just policies, but his attitude, personality and ability. Labour cannot run from that. And anyone who has worked with him is tarnished for not stopping him.

Roll on 60% - and pray that Cameron doesn't do a 'blair', but really delivers on promises - openness, sleazefree, EPP etc...

[Tynemouth Tory]

"would it be wrong to suggest a slogan for the party with a song perhas "things can only get better" imagine the irony!

Posted by: onthejob"

There are a couple of problems that I can see.
Firstly the band are unlikely to let us, because they may well be Labour sympathisers (still!) and even if they aren't they are probably hugely embarrassed over it by now.

and secondly, with the best will in the world, we are still accelerating headlong down the slippery slope into the mire of Brown Stuff (hey, how appropriate is that?) that regrettably things are going to get much worse before any election and/or change of government

[John]

Coupla things - how long before the Labour MP's think 'hold on, with Brown at the helm I might have to go get a proper job again' and start back biting - again?

And once he realises that 'his goose is cooked', he completes his scorched earth policy to leave the Conservatives with a legacy from hell.

Doesn't the legacy from a certain Big Beast seem so long ago?

[rugfish]

Brown and his cabinet are like 15 men on a dead mans chest !

A government cannot control financial markets by "insuring losses" in a free market and all Brown's efforts will achieve if he continues, is to make us all suckers of the same free marketeers which caused the crisis. He should never have taken oversight from the Bank of England but he’ll never admit it. Without this level of competent general oversight, the free market becomes nothing short of a charter for marketeers to commit piracy against our nation.

Gordon Brown is behaving like a drunken sailor with our money. The cabinet are like 15 men on a dead man’s chest. Brown’s first incompetence of detaching the Bank of England from oversight of “the banks”, defies all sanity. “Insuring World Debt” without a reciprocal global agreement, is either utter madness or sheer lunacy, or it is criminal negligence and a waste of taxpayers money which WE, not him, nor the banks, nor the investors, will have to pay back when it fails. ( Not IF, but When it fails ). In no other walk of life would a government promise to pay the bearer of a dud note. He must let banks merge or sink or become nationalised WITHOUT those debts. He must shore up and guarantee only UK debts.

A National Bank could pick and choose its portfolio whereas an open insurance policy for the world, cannot.

He’s committed two wrongs and two wrongs never made a right.
He HAS to be ousted before he sucks the UK bottle dry.

It is obvious he has no purpose being there and he should be arrested by the electorate at a General Election forthwith before all our assets are completely worthless pieces of junk and all our gold sovereigns have been handed to pirates.

Gordon Brown is behaving like a drunken sailor with our money.

Maybe I don't get it entirely. Maybe I need a surgical restraint of some kind, but if I'm not and I don't, then clearly Brown and Darling are not hallucinatory ghost like apparitions of a pair of wartime naval personnel home on leave, but are in fact a Prime Minister and a Chancellor, which I believe, have a certain amount of duty to keep this nations interests "safe".

I'd be really pleased ( and not disappointed therefore ), if either of them can tell the public exactly how they intend to do that by "buying worthless shares in banks which have incalculable losses", "Cutting VAT on products which no one has the means or the inclination to buy", "Not delivering survival loans to productive businesses either in time or at all despite they have major controlling shares in the same banks which could action such loans but have not", and by "Insuring World Debts, which not one soul on the planet can tell you where they are, who has them, how much they will be, and when they will fail" - Despite this, the only thing we know about these overseas debts, is that they WILL become more sizeable and will not become smaller, like the value of our own "investment" in bank shares, which are themselves worthless at this precise moment with no immediate or future likelihood of regaining their value - within our lifetimes - to the amount which the government kindly spent on our behalf.

RBS shares went from £3.90 to 12p the last 12 months and this is a hill too steep to climb unless we have an economy to do it. Do we have an economy? Will we ever, with this amount of debt to carry ?

In true British naval fashion, I therefore recommend that he's put in a longboat and set sail to his luvvy duvvy Euroland until he's sober and before he can cause any more damage to our Good Ship Britannia.

[John]

Dear Rugfish

Fair points, well made!

Now a confession. I am a FORMER Labour supporter. Card carrying member. I was young and very daft. I knew no better.
Today I fight hard to make amends...

So let me ask you to consider the temerity of a certain Mr G Brown, who has gone from boasting about 'abolishing boom bust' to 'saving the world' in just a few short years.

Here are a few low lights:

1. Scrapped the Tax relief on Private pensions - severely damaging the pensions industry and adding to the house price bubble

2. Sold our Gold at a 20 year low - despite Treasury advice to the contrary - costing circa 8 Billion Pounds

3. Responsible for the tax credit fiasco - costing Billions in over payments every year

4. Removed house prices from the inflation figures & coupled with the Chindia affect on manufactured goods helped keep the interest rates too low for too long = house price bubble

5. Removed the BoE's role in overseeing the Banks and crested the FSA. Which totally failed to spot or stop the excesses of the Banks lending frenzy

6. Added 1 million public sector workers to the wage/pension bill

7. After 15 years of growth he had us owing 40 Billion

8. The domestic savings rate went from 11% to negative

And he has brought us to this, facing the worst recession/depression in living memory totally unprepared.

For some reason, the media fail to highlight any of this. I understand that the BBC is the media arm of the Labour Party, but what about Sky or ITV and although the Express & Telegraph do their bit - what about the rest of the papers.

This man has done more damage to our economy and our country than anyone since Adolf Hitler.

The question is, how much more damage can he do in 18 months?

[David Belchamber]

Well said, John. We need to be ready with all available ammunition should an opportunity suddenly arise to demand a vote of no-confidence. It is unlikely, of course, as Labour rebels tend to close ranks, but it could happen in this climate and might do, if the opposition parties could come up with a strategy for recovery that is clearly better than Brown's desperate flailings around.

Some people are already suggesting election slogans: what about:

1968 - 1976 - 2008:
Labour always ends in Boom and Bust.

[Richard]

I for one did not panic,when the poll lead was cut briefly,I think that was more fear than any love for Brown.

People are now remembering why they began to turn against the Labour party and Brown before the Credit Crunch.they are just returning to the fact that Labour has failed

12 yrs

NHS- superbugs,dirty hospitals.

DEFENCE- 50% of troops want to leave

IMMIGRATION.- shambles,500,000 illegals here,not counting the millions here with permission,the equivalent of a foreign army has 'SNEAKED IN'.

BENEFIT- 5 MILLION ON SICK,3 MILLION
TO BE UNEMPLOYED.

ECONOMY -NO EXPLANATION NEEDED.

THE LIST ENDLESS

Expect a Labour leadership election after June,it neary happened last time,90% local seats are up,instead of the 10% that nearly ended Brown in 2008,Brown will be gone by the Irish 2nd vote on Lisbon.

[Richard]

I picked this up on another post,so i can't claim credit for it,a list of Labour losses,including major names,in the event of this poll being the result of the GE:

Alan Campbell - Tynemouth
Albert Owen - Ynys Mon
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West
Andrew Dismore - Hendon
Andrew Mackinlay - Thurrock
Andrew Miller - Ellesmere Port and Neston
Andrew Slaughter - Ealing Central and Acton
Andy Reed - Loughborough
Angela Smith - Basildon South and East Thurrock
Ann Cryer - Keighley
Ann Keen - Brentford and Isleworth
Anna Snelgrove - Swindon South
Anne McGuire - Stirling
Barbara Follett - Stevenage
Ben Bradshaw - Exeter
Ben Chapman - Wirral South
Betty Williams - Aberconwy
Bill Olner - Nuneaton
Bill Rammell - Harlow
Bob Blizzard - Waveney
Brian Jenkins - Tamworth
Celia Barlow - Hove
Charles Clarke - Norwich South
Chris Mole - Ipswich
Chris Ruane - Vale of Clwyd
Christine McCafferty - Calder Valley
Christine Russell - Chester, City of
Claire Curtis-Thomas - Sefton Central
Claire Ward - Watford
Clive Efford - Eltham
Colin Burgon - Elmet and Rothwell
Dan Norris - Somerset North East
Dari Taylor - Stockton South
David Borrow - Ribble South
David Chaytor - Bury North
David Crausby - Bolton North East
David Drew - Stroud
David Kidney - Stafford
David Lepper - Brighton Pavilion
David Taylor - Leicestershire North West
David Wright - Telford
Desmond Turner - Brighton Kemptown
Doug Naysmith - Bristol North West
Eric Martlew - Carlisle
Fabian Hamilton - Leeds North East
Gareth Thomas - Harrow West
Geraldine Smith - Morecambe and Lunesdale
Gillian Merron - Lincoln
Gisela Stuart - Birmingham Edgbaston
Gordon Banks - Ochil and South Perthshire
Gordon Prentice - Pendle
Greg Pope - Hyndburn
Gwyn Prosser - Dover
Helen Southworth - Warrington South
Howard Stoate - Dartford
Ian Austin - Dudley North
Ian Cawsey - Brigg and Goole
Ian Gibson - Norwich North
Ian Pearson - Dudley South
Jacqui Smith - Redditch
James Plaskitt - Warwick and Leamington
Jamie Reed - Copeland
Janet Anderson - Rossendale and Darwen
Janet Dean - Burton
Jim Cunningham - Coventry South
Jim Fitzpatrick - Poplar and Limehouse
Jim Knight - Dorset South
Jim Murphy - Renfrewshire East
Joan Humble - Blackpool North and Cleveleys
John Hutton - Barrow and Furness
John Mann - Bassetlaw
John Smith - Vale of Glamorgan
Jonathan Shaw - Chatham and Aylesford
Judy Mallaber - Amber Valley
Julie Morgan - Cardiff North
Kali Mountford - Colne Valley
Karen Buck - Westminster North
Kelvin Hopkins - Luton North
Laura Moffatt - Crawley
Linda Gilroy - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Linda Riordan - Halifax
Lindsay Hoyle - Chorley
Lynda Waltho - Stourbridge
Madeleine Moon - Bridgend
Margaret Moran - Luton South
Mark Lazarowicz - Edinburgh North and Leith
Mark Todd - Derbyshire South
Marsha Singh - Bradford West
Martin Caton - Gower
Martin Linton - Battersea
Martin Salter - Reading West
Mary Creagh - Wakefield
Michael Foster - Hastings and Rye
Michael Foster - Worcester
Michael Wills - Swindon North
Mike Hall - Weaver Vale
Mike O’Brien - Warwickshire North
Mike Wood - Batley and Spen
Nick Ainger - Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Nick Palmer - Broxtowe
Nigel Griffiths - Edinburgh South
Parmjit Dhanda - Gloucester
Patrick Hall - Bedford
Paul Flynn - Newport West
Paul Truswell - Pudsey
Phil Hope - Corby
Phyllis Starkey - Milton Keynes South
Robert Marris - Wolverhampton South West
Roger Berry - Kingswood
Rosie Cooper - Lancashire West
Russell Brown - Dumfries and Galloway
Ruth Kelly - Bolton West
Sadiq Khan - Tooting
Sally Keeble - Northampton North
Sarah McCarthy-Fry - Portsmouth North
Shahid Malik - Dewsbury
Shona McIsaac - Cleethorpes
Stephen Pound - Ealing North
Sylvia Heal - Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Tom Levitt - High Peak
Tony McNulty - Harrow East
Tony Wright - Great Yarmouth
Vernon Coaker - Gedling

[Gloy Plopwell]

All those will be Lib Dem gains, inevitably, with stupendous momentum.

[rugfish]

Posted by: John | January 20, 2009 at 14:39

I've never been one for conspiracy theories and I'm not about to start now, however if you trace Labour history back and put things in to proper order alongside their deceit over Europe, the Fabian Society and its mandate, and Common Purpose, then you'll doubtless arrive at the same answer I did many months ago, that by one reason or another whether it be by design, bad luck or incompetence, this country is being systematically destroyed from within.

The facts speak for themselves, I care not much about conspiracy theories, and looking at the facts, we are undoubtedly being destroyed both economically and politically and we need to wrench ourselves away from it before we have nothing but our sentiments.

Bad luck, incompetence or design. Who really cares why, it just needs to be stopped, however I think each of the reasons are as accurate as the other.

[Cassandra King]

I notice the BBC socialist workers'N'stuff solidarity front isnt giving the poll top billing or even any billing whatsoever, I wonder why? The comrades had no such qualms when NuLabour closed the Tory lead!
Oooh well, cant have the proles thinking the Tories are popular now can we? Expect to see lots of dirt digging and smears by the NuLabour spin control machine in the near future?