ComRes: Tory lead up to 15%

A new ComRes survey has the Conservatives up to 43% (up 2%); Labour down to 28% (-4%) and the LibDems on 16% (+1%).

I call this landslide territory!

9.45pm: These numbers within the poll are particularly interesting.  They suggest a massive erosion of the lead Labour had built up on economic competence during the latter stages of 2008:

Comments

[Matt Wright]

Excellent news.

[John Prendergast]

This trend of regain is now well set in, I am nor sure that Com Res is the most solid poll but its effect on ConHome Poll of Polls is a sober but encouraging to those of us who work virtually full time for Tory Party having given up other careers for the duration.
Yes, I was a weapons designer, racing car team manager, and hovercraft designer.
This after 33 years in the Army Technical Staff, mainly spent fencing off civl servants with a sharp slide rule and a death ray calculator.

[Andrew S]

Another encouraging poll. Lets keep at it

[Ave it 09]

Con GE victory is nailed on!!!

[Conspiracy]

Great news; a landslide victory for a party that is virtualy the same as the one in power now.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Does anyone know how these figures are broken down by region? With an SNP surge, the implosion of the Libido Democrats and our superior marginal campaign operation, might we dare hope for an even bigger majority?

[Votedave]

"Conspiracy" must think it's our policy to introduce ID cards, consider joining the euro and borrow, borrow, borrow while we're still bankrupt.

Let's be serious, however;
Excellent and very encouraging news. Again, though, after what happened to the polls in late September, I warn against complacency.

[BEWARE DAILY MIRROR JOURNALIST]

Warning from IanDale.blogspot

Tabloid Journalist Trying to Infiltrate Tory Party
Iain Dale 12:24 PM

Just a word of warning to Tories who have a Facebook profile. If you get a Friend request from someone called Carla Jones, beware. She's alleged to be a Daily Mirror journalist on the look out for Tory scandal, but hiding under an assumed identity.

She has 153 "friends". If you are one of them, probably best to "defriend" her.

[pp]

Great news that the incompetence seems likely to end.

However there must be a note of caution - an incoming government needs to use its authority and good will for major changes (and not squader it like blair did), but must also be measured and avoid browns(completely unearned and undserved) 'god complex' to do things despite the overwhelming objections of the public.

[AJJM]

Do these figures include potential UUP/Con seats in NI?

[A Cllr]

Where are the trolls?

[Sam R]

“Great news; a landslide victory for a party that is virtualy (sic) the same as the one in power now.” – Conspiracy @ 21.42
Confirmation that NuLab exist in a parallel universe. But even there they must now know that Nemesis awaits.

[Neil Johnston]

In answer to AJJM above. These polls are GB polls not UK wide unfortunately. I live in hope that those who instruct the polling companies will widen them to include NI.
Neil Johnston, Area Chairman NI

[Tony]

Cameron 4 PM!

[m dowding]

I keep saying, Prescott's blog is so prescient. Go (become)4th.
A satisfying poll. The UK seems to waking from a long slumber.

[DJT]

This is just the start of the final labour demise....they'll not recover this time i promise you. I'm from the north west and i dont know anyone who'll vote labour again!

I had great pleasure in telling Joan Humble's canvasser the other day that the chances of me voting for her at the next election were ZERO....he said not even 0.5??

I said yes...perhaps -0.5 !!hahaha

[BLACKDAY]

THE THING THAT WE MUST BE ON GUARD AGAINST.IS WHEN GORDON BRING BACK MR.PRESCOTT TO CONNECT WITH WORKING CLASS GB.AS NULABOUR HAS SO MANY LORDS AND LADIES.I DID HEAR A RUMOUR IT IS GOING TO REPACKAGE ITSELF AS THE NU/POSH LABOUR PARTY.AS PETER IS FED UP WITH WORKING WITH ORDINARY PEOPLE.

[john broughton]

I hate to sound like something of a wet blanket BUT....

Our No is + 2 and Labour's - 4. I would be so much happier if we were + 4 and Labour - 2. Clearly we have work to do, and I'm sure DC and Co will, in order to provide the lead rather than simply profit from disillusion with Brown.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I agree John, but surely there is a portion of Labour support that will NEVER come over to us? What we are witnessing is the disintegration of the Labour core.

It will be interesting to see how much of the Labour abstainers will really do that, or if they will come back to Labour at a general election out of tribal hatred for the idea of a Tory Government.

[Essexboy]

Conspiracy @ 21:42

Well said mate. Cameron is useless. I desperately want to believe in The Conservative Party, but I know they'll be no different what-so-ever to the bunch of socialist clowns running the country at the moment.

I'll admit that on election day I'll walk down to the polling station and vote Conservative but I don't think they'll do anything to address the fundamental problems facing the country.

We are simply flipping the over the coin.

[Tony the Tory]

I am always careful about predicting a Labour meltdown and said as much when we were at +26%. However, I am now confident that it is all over bar the shouting.

Labour have fallen back through the 30% trapdoor and every time Brown thinks he sees light at the end of the tunnel it is just the lights on another oncoming train.

What I worry about now is the mess they are going to leave us with in 2010.

[christina Speight]

Nobody's mentioned it but 'OTHERS' are +3%.

[Tony]

Essexboy

You are the type of voter who will be returning the Cons to power. Those not wholly convinced by the Cameron project but cannot bear 5 more years of Brown, so you will prop up the Tories.

BUT, there is solid reason for doing so. There are deep rooted philosophical differences between the Tories and New Labour, even now, that is why we have a party.

I say this to people: Cameron will be as radical as Thatcher, I bet you.

Thank god too, we need a bit of radicalism right now.

[pp]

Could do worse than take the labourlist front page as a poster...

http://www.labourlist.org/

Shows david cameron with a sandwich board saying 'the end is nigh', and a tagline of 'the end is nigh, vote conservative'.

Errr... what is the joke? it looks like a pretty accurate description of the current state of affairs... We should adopt it immediately !!

[Bill Pipe]

Wonderful news. If taken as read at a general election, we will be looking at just 20 or so Lib-dem seats returned in 2010. A wonderful thought to drift off to sleep with!!! [After all it is nearly 1am-an early night for me!]

[chris southern]

People need to remember two important facts.

Most people vote to get/keep a party out (tactical voting) they rarely look at parties manifestos in depth.

Second, an election is never won until the ballots are counted and the results given.
Also, manifestos need to give conclusive promises and not be vague, that's not realy done anymore and something that can realy make a differance (smart meters and wind turbines aren't high on most peoples lists of priorites either)

[StevenAdams]

Smart meters when balanced against energy bills will resonate with many people - and balancing against the enviornment will resonate with others.

What won't get people out to vote is banning cigarettes from sight and other bits of waste of time labour legislation.

[David_at_Home]

How about Scotland, Wales and the North?

I am a unionist and I want to live in a United Kingdom. You Tories will have to try harder. Coherent policies on the economy, energy and defence would be a good start.

There must be an acceptance that it was a terrible mistake to base our economy predominantly on financial services and consumerism and that we must encourage our people to again become involved in science, design and manufacturing. This will require, amongst many other things, a change to our “softened” state education ethos.

[David Belchamber]

From the Independent's article on the poll:

"Despite last week's decision to recall the former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke to the Shadow Cabinet, 49 per cent of people think the team "lightweight"; 38 per cent do not. A surprisingly high 39 per cent of supporters regard the team as lightweight, up from 36 per cent last November".

I hope that David Cameron will heed the remark made above and act on it. Many of us on ConHome might differ about who to recall (Davis, Redwood, IDS, Rifkind etc - we are fortunate in the number of able and experienced people we have to call on) but there seems to be general agreement that our front bench still needs some bolstering.

We have to deserve to win - and win well - and not just rely on Labour losing. At the moment, every extra month that Gordon Brown remains as PM suggests a year in office for the conservatives. How many months is it until the last date to hold an election?

Gordon Brown is on course to keep Labour out of office for a very long time.

[James Maskell]

One thing I find disgraceful is how anyone can smile while talking about the complete mess this economy is in and the hundreds of thousands whose livelihoods have been demolished. It may well be a facial tick and if so, he has an excuse but Browns gurning while talking about the economy is terrible.

[Stuart M]

It's still 28% too high...

[David Belchamber]

A suggested question for PMQs.

The government provided ample time to debate foxhunting but seems reluctant to allow any time for debate on the economy.
Therefore could the PM please clarify one important point of principle? His initial response to this crisis - supported by the opposition parties - was clearly based on the Swedish model in the early 1990s, their boom and bust also having been caused by the collapse of the housing market.

However, as the government's first phase has not succeeded is restoring lending between banks, I wonder if the PM could explain to the House why he has chosen to copy the conservatives' loan guarantee scheme (in all but its most important points) rather than the Swedish solution of creating bad banks to allow existing banks to purge themselves of their toxic assets.

The Swedish model you will recall worked at an estimated net cost of abour 2% of GDP.

[Steve Tierney]

David_at_Home at 09:50
>>There must be an acceptance that it was a terrible mistake to base our economy predominantly on financial services and consumerism and that we must encourage our people to again become involved in science, design and manufacturing.<<

Yes!

>>This will require, amongst many other things, a change to our “softened” state education ethos.<<

Yes!

Sorry I can't be more eloquent. But you've just hit that nail-head perfectly.

[Conspiracy]

Great news - another centre left party led by the political elite will be elected and the erosion of the UK as a sovergein nation will be complete - In Europe-dicated to by Europe.

[eugene]

A good poll but worrying in two respects:
28 % for Labour.....why?

...and more worrying, Labour still ahead of us on who will best manage the economic downturn. That is like saying Mugabe is ahead of the Pope on protecting human rights.

[Victor, NW Kent]

Impressive that poll for 17th October 2009.

[Gordons Lost his marbles]

Gordon Brown last week -- "I never saw this coming"
Gordon Brown This week - "I warned about this 10 years ago"

Now correct me if I am very wrong here but does anyone else notice a slight contradiction here?

[John]

James Maskell

"...Brown smiling whilst making a mess of the economy..."

You must remember that Brown is financially secure for life with his Pension, few speeches to companies like Capita who profited from his patronage, odd book deal etc.

Also, being in Government/Power was always the goal. NOT doing a good job. The Power, the status, the attention this is what it's all about for Brown.

Sad, inadequate, dysfunctional man that he is.