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Until recently we reported Electoral Calculus "majorities." Is there a reason for this change?

Another shocking poll for Clegg's Libido Dems. No doubt, Gloy Plopwell will be telling us how he's off back to the constituency to prepare for government.

Well this is heartening news for you all in Toryland!

Now.....how about Dave getting all you Tory MP's to put your money where your mouth is and VOTE AGAINST the hiding of MP's expenses.....not simply abstaining as I have heard he is minded to do.

If you don't..........it will just look like you're ALL the same as New Labour.

The headline the day after will read....


If you however, show some backbone;
I predict an upward lurch for the Tories in the Polls as they put some (how do you guys like to call it?) "clear Blue water" between yourselves and Labour.

By the time the conservatives get back in, all of the family silver will have been sold.
Belive it, Labour are having a wild party on tax payer money. Now it seems, they are going to give even more of tommorows hard erned to the banks. Its a scandal a crash and burn mentality that we have to fight tooth and nail. Of course Darling (the pinko)
is trying to buy state control of the banks.
Its not a good idea although the plan is quite mature. We give all of the money to the banks and in return the banks profits are taxed and effectivly the banks become the finance arm of the state. I know that the public are unhappy about this strangulation of freedom.So 9% still isn't enough, and frankly boys by the time we are in it will be advanced, and the trouble will be deep seated. Meanwhile the Euro is a scam worth considering boys, are gaining an edge.
For the sake of the One Nation I am not in favour of evermore state control.

The problem lies in these aspects. Firstly owing to demographic change there are many large Tory seats and smaller Labour ones so Labour do better from a swing in their favour than do the Tories. Related is that the Conservatives could be stockpiling votes in safe seats in the shires but failing to gain enough votes in key urban and suburban marginals. The other is the effect of the Lib-Dem vote. If gained at the previous election from Labour, as happened in some seats in 2005, will it abstain, stay Lib-Dem or revert to Labour. Also Labour supporters are more likely to vote tactically for a Lib-Dem to keep out or defeat a Tory but Conservative voters tend not to do this and will vote for a no hope Conservative where a tactical Lib-Dem vote would defeat Labour,

That is why a simple percentage poll is no longer as reliable a predictor as it used to be, and one needs more data to make a forecast.

Steve Foley, you don't seem to understand or follow the polling data regularly, do you?

Labour are in real trouble.

I didn't say that the recent polls are good for Labour, anything but. However it will take not only a bigger Tory lead than currently being shown but that it be sustained. Labour will play the incumbency card for all it is worth.

Steve Foley:

That's why they provide detailed data sheets and the current Comres data shows the Conservatives ahead in London, the South East, South West/ Wales, Midlands and neck and neck (even) with Labour in the North. Only in Scotland are the Conservatives considerably behind (understandably).

They are ahead in every age group from 24 year olds upwards and are leading with both men and women. Now if that doesn't tell you something, then nothing will!

Silent Hunter is absolutely correct. David Cameron must tackle the issue of expenses head on and with forthright vigour. No matter what MPs might feel about it, and however (implausibly) justifiable the motive for their preferred secrecy might be as regards the money and perks the taxpayer gifts them for their "service", it's about perception.

The perception is that MPs are playing fast and loose with their office and lining their own pockets as fast as they can while they have a seat. This government's MPs (and ministers) have been the worst pocket-liners and patronage-takers since Pitt (the Elder!). "Corrupt" is an ugly, but totally accurate, word to describe their many varied, long-term abuses of position.

Cameron must crack down heavily and in-so-doing, bury Labour in these polls once and for all, with a view to a deservedly triumphant General Election.

Oh, and it's the right thing to do too, of course...

(If this Silent Hunter is the same Silent Hunter generally regarded as the calm (lol) conscience of "Comment is Free", then her/his remarks deserve close attention. S/he's almost always spot on.)

I agree on the expenses issue. It would be a great way of putting some clear blue water between us and Labour. It would also dovetail nicely with Cameron's plans to reduce the number of MPs.

Cameron has shown in his reaction to Conway (fired from the Party), Spelman (investigation), MEPs (ordered to publish expenses) and his own votes (against the John Lewis list and pay rises)

When people are taking pay cuts just so they can keep their jobs, it's not acceptable for MPs to be voting themselves double-digit pay rises and huge pension increases. It is not acceptable for MPs to claim hundreds of thousands of pounds of expenses without receipts. If I did that on my tax return, I would go to jail.

Cameron needs to:

- Order a three-line whip on full publishing of MPs' expenses.
- Whatever the result of any vote, order our MPs to publish all of their expenses online.
- Withdraw the whip from any MPs voting to keep expenses secret and deselect them as candidates.
- Pledge a regime of "no claim without a receipt" and an end to the "communication allowance"

Tim/Jonathan, can we have a separate thread on this issue, please? I think grassroots feeling on this is very strong and that a message needs to be sent to Cameron and the leadership.


Yes..........it is I? The 'sometimes calm' voice from Cif ;O)

I didn't know I had a 'fan base' lol

Thanks for your support and although I would never describe myself as a Tory, I absolutely abhor New Labour, so perhaps this is a case of...... my enemy's enemy is my friend.

The one thing I admire Conservative Home for, is the fact that it is an open forum, where anyone (not just the party fithful) can comment.

I note that the majority of Labour Blogs require you to 'sign in' and they then pre-moderate the comments........so much for 'listening to the people' eh?

I was surprised to not see a seperate thread on the expenses issue......I can't see that it will do you any harm and it could in fact do you a power of good.

Party fithful?

OK, now that's either....

Party Fitfull
Party Fistfull
or Party Faithfull

......you choose!

Note to self: get that 'a' key fixed. :O)

John Leonard, thanks for the heads up. With more data such as this the poll makes better sense.

Scotland has been a write off for the Conservatives for many years now, but the key areas are the Midlands and to watch in the West Country for Lib-Dem incursions.

Steve Foley

In fact, the regional breakdown for the last three polls: populus, comres and yougove, all show very strong leads for the Conservatives in the marginals-rich midlands.

All three have us hovering around 50% in the Midlands region

James, if that can be sustained then it looks good for a Tory victory. The West Midlands have often been the winner at General Elections. I can remember how these key marginals swung against Heath in Feb 1974 and to Thatcher in 1979, 2003 and held for the most part in 1987. Lose them and end up as HM Opposition.

The hidden expenses saga is an absolute gift to the Conservatives.
Come on, please show that you're unequivocally on the side of the British public and vote solidly against this appalling piece of chicanery.
Any Conservative MP who votes for it should lose the whip and be deselected. We don't need greedy, shifty pigs in this party.

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