10% of people who will vote Tory in a General Election will vote UKIP in June's Euro elections

That's the suggestion of a YouGov poll carried out by The Taxpayers' Alliance and Global Vision and released to tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph.  The Sun Tel's Patrick Hennessy warns that that number will only harden if Ken Clarke returns to the Conservative frontbench in the much anticipated reshuffle.

Overall voting intentions for next June's elections are (with 2004 actual voting percentages in brackets):

• Conservatives 35% (26.7%)
• Labour 29% (22.6%)
• Liberal Democrats 15% (14.9%)
• UKIP 7% (16.1%)
• Greens 5% (6.3%)
• BNP 4% (4.9%)

The poll also finds that 16% of Britons want to leave the EU altogether and another 48% want a looser relationship.  64% reject Euro membership.

Comments

[Norm Brainer]

only 10%?

[Felicity Mountjoy]

This website must deny UKIP all oxygen of publicity as we approach June's vital elections.

[Josh]

Until the Conservative Party solidify their position on Europe, UKIP will still continue to steal votes and it may cost them a majority at a general election.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Ummm, maybe 'Josh' has a point @ 18.49!

[Centre forward]

This is ammo for ConHome's neverending anti-Ken campaign but with Ken in the team we win more votes in the centre than we lose on the right-wing fringe.

[kingbongo]

10% of otherwise tory voters won't vote for UKIP in June - They might like the idea but these elections will be all about the 2 main parties with the BNP picking up a lot of ex-Labour votes in certain areas.

The funniest sight will be a collapse of Lib Dem support but they'll still do better than UKIP who I doubt will hold more than 1 seat

[David_at_Home]

That's just for now, after four years of a virtual media blackout of UKIP.

Come the Spring, the BBC et al will have to acknowledge the existence of UKIP and, combined with the lack of enthusiasm of the electorate for Brown/Darling, Cameron/Osborne and "30 women, £30" Clegg, UKIP's vote will blossom.

Michael Heaver is correct (scroll down to his blog of 1 Jan):

http://michaelheaversblog.blogspot.com/

Michael is one of the new breed of UKippers, highly motivated, articulate and well informed. The future is EU-Sceptic!

[Ric]

Felicity,
If the Conservatives had not signed the Maastricht Treaty there would not be a party called U.K.I.P. The more Conservatives support U.K.I.P. then the sooner we will leave the E.U.

[Tim Montgomerie]

Nice to have you back kingbongo, it's been a long time!

[Jack Stone]

The fact that only 16% want to leave the EU shows just how out of touch most on this site are with mainstream British opinion.
People know that we are better off in than out.

[Tim Montgomerie]

Jack Stone: Your endless negativity while purporting to be a Conservative has nearly reached the end of the road. Either present yourself honestly or stop commenting. I will ban you if neither happens.

[will.b]

I'll be lending my vote to UKIP as I have no Conservatives standing in my area. There are two MEP's who use the Conservative label but they don't display any Conservative tendencies. Our third candidate is a women who benefited from the undemocratic positive discrimination that we employed for the selection proceedures.

I would sooner vote UKIP and then these 'Conservatives' can do nothing in my name.

[YMT]

I would have thought the reason for this is clear? UKIP has clearly defined its relationship and views on the EU, the Conservatives haven't. Our party has a large portion of supporters who are Eurosceptic who for lack of an alternative view will vote UKIP.

[maas101]

I'll be one of those 10%. Do the Tories have a position on Europe? (Other than let's try not to talk about it for fear of exposing division within our ranks)

I want the U.K. to be run by a monetarist conservative government, not by the federalist quangos in Brussels.

[Walaa]

Tim M is it possible to find out what’s the % +/- of our vote if Clark is in the cabinet, and whether it comes from Lab or Lib please!

[Libbie Miller]

Any truly representative government is just that, "representative". The general consensus and the "majority" of British voters want to leave the EU. The sensible stance for the Conservatives to take at this moment in time is the "middle ground".

The voter sees NuLabour as a dictatorship. This is their downfall. It's the "we know what's best for you" attitude that gets up people's noses.

As an ordinary voter, I will vote conservative in the general election and would vote conservative in the EU election if they promised to drastically loosen its ties with the EU. It is vital for us that we do not relinquish control to what WE see as a bunch of "snouts in the trough" bureaucrats who don't give a damn about us!

[snegchui]

From Michael Heaver's blog as recommended:

"UKIP are pro-European, pro-globalization and passionately anti-racism from the grassroots all the way up to the leadership"
I will admit I am confused, because I haven't seen any of this to be consistent with what declared UKippers say on this site.

[maas101]

Sorry Libbie but I don't see a middle ground. Europe is moving towards increasing federalism. Either this is supported or rejected, there is no status quo.

Either swim against the current or go with the flow, you cannot stay still.

[Tanuki]

Truth is, I'd count myself as one of that 10%.

I really liked the original "common market" idea - a philosophy of unrestrained free-trade, tearing down the barriers to inter-state commerce and letting business blossom. Full-stram ahead for capitalism and unrestricted, untaxed consumer-choice!

The 'European Union' we have ended up with - hog-tied by a welter of stultifying regulation and bureaucratic nonsense - is anathema to this.

"Free trade" is not something you regulate for; it's something you deregulate for. UKIP's policies are still patently immature but they're nevertheless far more attractive than the ill-formed and lacklustre policies my traditional party is putting forward in this area.

I'd like to see: seceeding from the Common Agricultural / Common Fisheries policy for a start. Follow this with declaring the European Union Witholding Tax nonsense - let the UK become a tax-haven like Switzerland, and enjoy the inrush of investment to the tax-haven this would produce.

[John Broughton]

One thing that will secure more votes for us is a statement that we will hold a vote on the constitution (lisbon) whether or not ratified and act in accordance with the views of the UK electorate thus expressed.

It will also help if there is a positive plan presented to the party for us to leave the epp; DC making good his promise will also demonstrate his integrity generally.

[Alan S]

I won't vote for UKIP but I'll be glad if Cameron faces some pressure from the right. The constant reaching out to the centre is demotivating me.

[Julian Melford]

Libbie, we have already relinquished control to the bureaucrats in the European Commission.

Plus the legal activists in the European Court, not many of whom would be recognised judges in the UK. And of course the European Council and Council of Ministers where British influence is around 10% by voting weight on most matters.

We will not be able to pass truly Conservative laws that conflict with EU commitments, as John Major found with the Working Time legislation. So let's not regard the EU as a scared cow.

[Malcolm Dunn]

This is a terrible poll for UKIP. They are as Davidathome must realise privately a completely busted flush.After all that's happened in the last few years to look at a serious decline in vote is a disaster for them. I hope anyone who wants to send a message to this government realises that it is only the Conservative Party that can do so.
Having said that it is vital that we reestablish our credentials by leaving the EPP immediately after the election and campaign on a robustly eurosceptic manifesto.

[ivantheyidfrombradford]

I think their will be even more fun to come in the runup to the Euro elections. The pollsters did not ask the question 'How will you vote in the Euro Elections if their is a Party called Libertas standing'. For those Tories who do not know who Libertas is, it is the very media competent organisation headed by Declan Ganley which was the main campaigner (along with Sinn Fein !) for a 'No' vote in the Irish Referendum. In other words compared with 'other parties' such as UKIP, BNP etc it can claim to have achieved something through a democratic vote, stopping the Lisbon Treaty !! If Libertas set out their stand competently they will get the votes of many of those Tories alienated by Camerloon's lack of EU policies and many cheesed off UKIP/BNP voters who have seen their parties achieve nothing except squander members money (something the EU needs no instruction on !).

[Steve Foley]

There are many Conservatives and Tory sympathisers who will vote UKIP at the Euro Elections, I may well be one of the latter. Why? Well firstly UKIP have preserved Tory core values and policies discarded by Cameron in his all things to all men "Tory Blair" approach. They have also slammed the door in the face of the Eco-loonies by having no truck with all this Green Nonsense. The late Sir James Goldsmith may well have funded the Referendum Party but his son Zac would rightly get his ar*e kicked by UKIP.

The other disadvantage is the ridiculous closed list de-Hont PR system. This not only favours parties such as UKIP and for that matter the dreaded Greens who would get nowhere under FTTP but prevents people splitting their ticket as it is an all or nothing vote. Now given a free hand I would mix my ticket. I would want to be able to vote for Nigel Farage UKIP, Baroness Nicholson Lid-Dem, as I admire these two MEPs, the remaining 8 votes for the Conservatives, which to me would be a truly Democratic System especially in the South East with 10 MEPs. Instead if someone like myself wants Nigel Farage I have to vote for the whole UKIP list or nothing, likewise I would not be able to vote for Emma Nicholson or Nirj Deva (Conservative) both of whom I admire. If they had gone instead for STV at least the elector would have some choice de-Hont is a system to suit the Political Parties and not the voters! As it stands if I vote for Nigel Farage the Conservatives will lose out. I am sure that this must have happened in the last Euro-Elections to both Labour and Tory. Also this PR system means that smaller parties such as UKIP can actually win seats! Thus anyone wavering will think, "It's worth voting for UKIP, they can win this time" whereas with FTTP as used for Westminster they will be lucky to hold Castle Point and in a marginal seat such as Reading West if I want to unseat Labour MP Martin Salter I will have to vote Tory as the UKIP candidate will be very lucky to make 4 figures.

I can see Gordon Cameron and David Brown getting a bloody nose in this year's Euro-Elections. Whoops! I've got the names mixed up, or have I?

[Alan Douglas]

Since the central question of UK politics is "Who calls the shots ?", the EU relationship to the UK is the ONLY question that matters.

I don't care whether the rubber stamp on 85 % of our laws (from Brussels) is red or blue, but whether the UK can make law to suit its own fish or waste, to name but two.

So I am of that 10 %, where it can have an impact, otherwise Conservative. I would perfer to be blue all the time, but DC gives me no option.

Alan Douglas

[Anonymous regular]

I would vote Conservative if I had Conservative candidates to vote for, but as I'm registered to vote in Yorkshire and Humber, someone called Timothy Kirkhope is masquerading as a "Conservative", so my vote will be going to UKIP. I certainly won't deliver a single leaflet or knock on a single door for the bunch of sell-outs representing us at the moment.

Having more EU-phile MEPs does nothing to halt our further entanglement in the mess. What's the point of voting "Conservative" only to see a load of fellow travellers elected who go native the moment they step off the First Class carriage of the Eurostar?

You might as well vote UKIP and have some people over there speaking out against he EU who aren't afraid of losing committee chairmanships and perks if they rock the boat.

Our MEPs (Dan Hannan, Roger Helmer, Chris Heaton-Harris and a few others excepted) have been useless in standing up for Britain. The only examples I can remember being trumpeted as a success on this website are retaining Imperial measures, and saying no to a ban on old-style lightbulbs. If that's what we call influence at the heart of Europe, we're better off out.

[A Cllr]

What the UKIP lovers forget is that only 16% of people want to leave Europe.

Most people don't care.

The focus of the Euro election should be on how the EU can help, not hinder the economy.

It is hard to accept but the vast majority simply aren't fussed about Europe.

Now some of us may care but we need to accept the country has moved on.

Cameron has to get the maximium number of votes and when he moves to the right he loses more votes than he gains (polls reflect this).

It is hard to take but there is no going back so just accept it.

[peter]

64% 'want out' or want 'powers returned'. Since the EU wil never return powers, that's 64% against the present set up.

[Michael Heaver]

48% want a "much looser" relationship with the EU. UKIP's job will be to show these people that the Tories position is untenable. We are either in this thing or we are not. The only Tory MEPs who have no burning desire to move up in the party ladder also happen to be the ones who advocate withdrawal. Funny, that.

Expect the UKIP percentages to rise even more dramatically than they did in 2004.

[Josh Barker]

What is the conservatives policy on the EU?
I'll be voting UKIP because they want what I want indpendence from the EU.

[Mr Disgusted]

These Poll results are clearly wishful thinking, with the BNP getting around 40% of the vote in some cases and the ineffectiveness of UKIP (who don't actually even want to leave the EU any more).
I think Cameron will get a well deserved shock that may wake him up to reality.

Personally I am fed up with my rights being handed over and degraded by foreign powers and will vote for anyone who will push to break free.

[maas101]

@A Cllr

If no-one cares about Europe then a robust policy against the encroachment of the EU will not lose votes. It may however gain the support of those of us who do view it as a major issue.

As far as Cameron losing votes when he moves to the right what polls support this? I believe if the Tories had more of a backbone they would be a lot more than 7% ahead right now.

[James Maskell]

I find the idea of people standing for election to a body that they dont actually want to be a part of rather amusing...

[Yorkshireman, South Yorkshire]

I like what Cameron is doing in a number of areas and hes starting to develop the right message / alternative and I'm likely to vote Conservative at the next election, but in the Euro's I'm definitely voting UKIP. Cameron has got to start pushing for more more national sovereignty and beginning a gradual pull back from the EU. A stronger position on Lisbon ie a post treaty vote if ratified needs to be emphasised. I know the economy and other issues are certainly more important and that DC should not endlessly bang on about Europe, but a post ratification referendum should be an achieveable policy announcement. Its hardly "headbanger" territory is it ?

Failing that its UKIP for me

[Dan Beckham]

Centre forward is right.

Campaigning on Europe is a distraction.

There's no reasoning with the diminishing number of fundamentalist UKIPPERs.

There is reasoning with the huge pool of floating voters in the middle ground who care about taxes and schools and crime.

Cameron MUST NOT alter focus.

[meli]

One thing that will secure more votes for us is a statement that we will hold a vote on the constitution (lisbon) whether or not ratified and act in accordance with the views of the UK electorate thus expressed.

It will also help if there is a positive plan presented to the party for us to leave the epp; DC making good his promise will also demonstrate his integrity generally.

Posted by: John Broughton | January 10, 2009 at 19:32

Agreed John, otherwise I also will be one of the 10%.

[A Cllr]

maas as we moved to the right the polls tightern. We have moved the right a lot in the past 3 months and have lost support.

In 05 we moved to the right and were spanked. Lib Dem seats such as the ones near me stayed Lib Dem. We need those seats back.

[ChrisD]

Terrible polling figure for UKIP in the Euro's. I suspect the upcoming Euro elections might be the end of the road for this party, which lets face it has only been hanging together precariously because of the number of MEP's it currently has.
When they go, the party goes...Taxi for UKIP.

[UKIP insider]

UKIP is planning a big web campaign to expose the Europhile views of those MEPs that Cameron kept on the Tory lists against the wishes of the Conservative rank and file. He will come to regret that act of centralism.

[A Cllr]

I also have to point out that voting UKIP in a general just strengtherns Labour.

IF you vote UKIp you help Labour - now do you vote a party which you agree with say 80% of its policies that could get into government and inact them.

Or do you say no, I want a party 100% for them and then see Gordon Brown back as PM?

[John Moss]

If those figures were replicated across all regions, then we would win 4 seats, Labour 3 and Lib-Dems 2 in a region with 9 seats, with no other party winning any. UKIP only get a seat in a region with 10 seats and I think the South East region loses its 10th seat this time? Most regions actually return fewer MEPs this time than last.

Obvioulsy that is not going to happen quite like this, not least because of Nationalist Party votes in Wales and Scotland, but assuming the 7% for UKIP includes the 10% of Tories who might vote for them, then this is pretty disasterous for Nigel and his bunch. They could well be wiped out.

Other good news is that neither Greens, nor BNP look likely to win a seat.

Oh dear. What a pity. Never mind.

[ChrisD]

"There's no reasoning with the diminishing number of fundamentalist UKIPPERs.

There is reasoning with the huge pool of floating voters in the middle ground who care about taxes and schools and crime.

Cameron MUST NOT alter focus."

Absolutely bang on the money Dan Beckham. At the end of the day, I find this minority obsession on ConHom with our MEP's and a demand that each and everyone must be bordering on the most pure form of Euroscepticism a bit off. It must feel like some sort of witch hunt to the individuals concerned sometimes.

The really important focus right now is winning the next GE, everything else pales into insignificance. And if you want to argue that point, just compare the turnout for a GE as opposed to the Euro's. No contest.

[ChrisD]

"UKIP is planning a big web campaign to expose the Europhile views of those MEPs that Cameron kept on the Tory lists against the wishes of the Conservative rank and file. He will come to regret that act of centralism"

Yuck! UKIP really don't get it do they? How to turn the voters off.

[A Cllr]

I am glad that there are others out there who realise that a focus on Europe won't win a general.

[Tom FD]

I did actually vote for UKIP in the 2004 European Election on the basis that the "get the hell out of Europe" cause was one I believed in (aged 19). But ultimately what you're voting for with them is not a ticket out of the European Union but an empty chair in the all-powerful European parliament. And on the off-chance that they actually get up there and do the job they're being paid for, their policy platform is unedifying and some of their individual views are abhorrent. So until my generation gets an opportunity to choose its own destiny with regard to the EU, I will be putting my tick in the Conservative box at European elections - and urge everyone else to do the same.

[Hawkeye]

I see no one has mentioned Libertas.

If they get enough cross europe votes to elect MEPs from enough different countries then Cameron could ally with them and tell the EPP to get stuffed.

[meli]

good point Hawkeye. If Libertas happen to put a candidate forward in my area I would perhaps vote for them instead.
Like others here, for a GE I would vote Conservative.

[Andrew Sinclair]

Oh God, are we going to have to hear from those UKIP nutcases again? Hopefully Coulson is already digging the dirt up on them already. Let's finish these fruitcakes off once and for all this time.

[John Smith]

16% want out. So on in or out, a vastly overwhelming majority say 'in'. People recognise the peace, prosperity, and opportunities that Union gives us. The red tape needs to be cut, but that's a procedural change that you alter from within, and lest we forget, Britain is just about the only member state which chooses to implement it so, err, 'enthusiastically'. Whether it's boiler plating regulations, implementing them unnecessarily, or misleading people about their source, it is the British government that is the problem, not our friends, partners and allies on the mainland.

[meli]

True John Smith, 16% want out. However, 48% want a looser relationship. Together that is 64% who do consider the EU a worry of some form or other. I happen to be in the 48%. But for me, while it is nice to hear the Conservatives stance on the EU, in Europe but not ruled by Europe, what have they done towards that goal? What do they have planned for the future to reach that goal? I would like to think you are right, that some of what has been done and blamed on the EU is actually reversable by the next government. As I have said before, I'm no politician just a normal person. In fact I'm one of those floating voters I guess you could say. Though I have made up my mind already as to who to vote for in a general election, much to my husbands delight as he has been trying to convince me to vote Conservative for some time now. So the red tape can be cut? Where is the trust that this can and will happen? (Not being arguementative, I really would like to know for my own peace of mind.) Also, where do we stand as far as our civil rights as far as Europe goes? Perhaps I as well as others, tend to point the finger at Europe when these things plague us.

[Ken Stevens]

Felicity Mountjoy
"This website must deny UKIP all oxygen of publicity as we approach June's vital elections."

if you think that sticking your head in the sand will result in the problem going away.....!

[Super Blue]

James M: you are quite right. UKIP stood on a platform of not taking their seats, then they did and now they seem to be enjoying the Brussels junket lifestyle (particularly one elected in the East).

[Geoff]

The red tape needs to be cut, but that's a procedural change that you alter from within...John Smith

Or if we get out, then there is nothing to need to "change"!

[Old Hack]

Whilst its was not short or sweet, Hague's slogan for the '99 elections "In Europe but not run by Europe" was successful and contained UKIP.

In '04 the Party failed to come up with a better narrative and got bitten on the bum by UKIP.

This time, we need to reprise the '99 message somehow and make absolutely certain that our position on Europe is not misrepresented or misunderstood.

If we do, then we have every chance of giving Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP a kicking. But we cannot take support for granted. That happened in '04 and could happen again,

[Rod Sellers]

Yup ! Put me down for UKIP in spirit . The only problem is that in my area the MEP is Roger Helmer. A first rate defender of British interests in Brussells - but sadly a lone voice. Getting Out of the EU is the only honourable policy.

[ChrisD]

"if you think that sticking your head in the sand will result in the problem going away.....!"

Ken, judging by those polling figures, its UKIP members who are sticking their heads in the sand. And if UKIP's MEP's are almost wiped out in the Euro's, then the problem really has gone away.

[Paul D]

Those Tories saying they'd vote UKIP are missing the big picture - thanks to the shameful selection system all the 'gone-native' pro-EU MEPs will be returned whether they vote UKIP or not. The only way to get rid of them is to play the long game, vote Conservative, up our number of MEPs and then demote the pro-EUers for eviction in 2014, when (as government!) we WILL lose support and seats

[haddock]

Felicity @18:42
"This website must deny UKIP all oxygen of publicity as we approach June's vital elections"

Oh My God, we in UKIP are doomed... no oxygen from conservative home !

are you real ? you think voters come here to be told how to vote ? perhaps if no one here mentions UKIP they will go away and not embarrass the Conservatives by actually having a clear policy on the EU ( or anything for that matter )
You Conservatives should consider just how abysmal your lead is given how pathetic and unpopular the government is.... not try to talk down the very real threat to your vote. Almost everyone I talk to will vote UKIP in the European Elections and for the Conservatives in a General Election..... not because they think well of the Conservatives, but because they are not Labour or Liberal.

I'll be back after June's election to gloat, you really should get out more and talk to some real people.

[Yet Another Anon]

UKIP tend to fall out of the news a lot between elections, I expect that they will hold or improve their vote slightly on last time in the European Elections and in the General Election, especially in a campaign where they have a number of elected representatives and where the list system works in their favour.

The 3 main parties all hold a torch for Euroland in one way or another, people who favour withdrawal are marginalised and called fruitcakes by the leaderships of all 3 main parties. A lot of people are being taken for granted.

[snegchui]

Interesting: I belong to the 48% seeking a looser connection (I deliberately won't use the word federation).
UKIP is a busted flush, on Europe, on globalisation. Farage does present well, but best presentation with empty content goes nowhere.
Going forward, with experienced politicos emerging (if they do) where will UKIP go? That could be interesting. At present, nowhere.
Busting Lisbon is important, hopefully someone else will do it. But the excitement and shrill shrieking of UKippers is not a sustainable delivery mechanism.

[sjm]

Before the last Gen Election, we ran (a completely unscientific) survey whilst canvassing:

we asked people to pick the 4 most important issues to them, such as education, health, pensions, the EU and a couple of others I've now forgotten.

We did this for several weeks, and I carefully collated the replies. I am, by the way, a fervent EU-sceptic, and would like the UK to withdraw from the EU.

The overwhelming result of our surveys was that the majority of voters in our neck of the woods couldn't give a tinker's cuss for EU matters.

Now, I know we can all argue about 80% of our laws originating from Brussels, and lack of perceptiveness on the part of the passive public BUT ....

they are the ones with the votes, and if we bore them to tears talking about something that makes them switch off, we will lose support.

I strongly recommend (whilst wishing it weren't so) that the EU issue is not forgotten but put on the back-burner, to be dealt with when Mr Cameron is Prime Minister.

[James Sutherland]

I've voted Conservative in every election for which I have been eligible to do so - with the exception of EU elections, where I voted UKIP. Barring a major platform change, I will again vote Conservative for local and national elections, but not EU - that will be either UKIP or Libertas. I am happy to remain members of the EEA, with free trade and free movement - I am not happy with "directives" imposed from abroad. If we can replace Lisbon with a cast-iron rule that all matters within a member state, or between a member state and non-member, are entirely and permanently outwith EU jurisdiction in every way, I would be happy. Instead, Cameron seems determined to offer a slightly diluted version of NuLabour's radical federalist vision, surrendering everything to Brussels but slightly more slowly than Brown would.

[Rob]

"If no-one cares about Europe then a robust policy against the encroachment of the EU will not lose votes. It may however gain the support of those of us who do view it as a major issue."

And lose the support of many people who simply can't understand why a mainstream political party would attach such totemic important to an issue that most people view as unimportant; and suspect therefore that that party has an unhealthy obsession with peripheral issues and isn't really mature enough to govern yet.

If you're going to attract the support of a obsessed minority, you do it with dog-whistles. If you borrow their loudhailer you just look like a loony.

[Steve Foley]

A Cllr. You come across as one of those who frankly could not care less what tenets or principles you dump as long as you see a man with a Blue Rosette waving from the steps of Number 10. In this you are as bad as those Labour types who did exactly the same in 1997 when they were happy for Blair to dump all their policies just to win. I cannot see the point in betraying all a party's principles to get into power unless they intend to do what Livingstone did to Mc McIntosh on the GLC.

I have some principles and I want to see a Conservative Party elected ,not a load of opportunist relativists in Pale Blue. As for being "spanked" in 2005 under Michael Howard (who you say swung to the Right), he actually got the best result for the Conservatives since 1992 by cutting the Labour majority down to the 60s from over 100 and winning back many seats. Nobody but the most cock-eyed optimist ever thought that the Conservatives could win in 2005.

I feel that people like you ought to be Lib-Dems then you can be all things to all men. I hope you do not live in my Borough as I could not vote for someone like you.

[David]

"People recognise the peace, prosperity, and opportunities that Union gives us." Not many recognise this.

The poll shows that 64% do not support the status quo. The Conservative Party does support the status quo. As things stand, my vote will have to go to UKIP.

[Tory Confederate ie UKIP voter]

UKIP came THIRD ,ahead of the Lib dems at the last Euros and cannot be denied a lot of media coverage this time around.

EPP Today,gone tomorrow

[Andy Smith]

Jack Stone writes: "The fact that only 16% want to leave the EU shows just how out of touch most on this site are with mainstream British opinion. People know that we are better off in than out."
Research carried out for the Campaign for an Independent Britain suggests that a decisive majority of the British electorate (over 70%) would welcome the opportunity to vote on whether or not the UK continues to be part of the EU. As the British people have NEVER been given a say on our membership of the EU (the Common Market was the issue back in 1975 - and in any case many of us weren't old enough to vote then!) I reckon it's about time we were given the chance. A referendum is long overdue. Then, once the issues are properly aired, let's see for ourselves whether Mr Stone is right and people really do think we're "better off in". With the EU costing us £55bn a year (money that would be better spent here in Britain) I doubt it very much. My own view - and that of virtually everyone I speak to, in every walk of life, and of all political allegiances, is that Britain would most definitely be better off out.

[UKIPPED!!]

The pro-EU commenters who tout the "only 16% want to leave" line have not read the details of the poll.

Only 22% want to stay in the EU after political union. 48% reject political union and EU control of our laws and want a free trade relationship only. 16% want no relationship with the EU at all. Over half of those polled do not believe that renegotiation to a free trade relationship only is feasible.

The Global Vision poll in June 2008 showed that the great majority of those who favour a trade only agreement recognise that reality and would vote to leave the EU in a referendum. Given a choice of In or Out of the EU 60% of voters would vote OUT.

The TPA poll shows that 45% of voters, and 42% of Conservatives, believe that none of the 3 main parties (Con, Lab, Lib) represent their views on Britain's future relationship with the EU. That a fantastic opportunity to steal votes from all of those parties!

Overall, this is a fantastic poll for UKIP. It will be entitled to three, probably four election broadcasts. The media will be obliged to give the party fair treatment during the campaign.

In 2004, UKIP went into the campaign with 3% of the vote and got 16% and 12 seats. This poll demonstrates that the party is in a great position to do even better in 2009.

If the Conservatives don't want to lose more seats to UKIP, they must commit to leave the EU. That's what the voters really want but Cameron, as Tannock's Europhile article on energy shows, is Brussels' poodle.

BETTER OFF OUT WITH UKIP!

[Steve Tierney]

I hate to say it, but this is probably right.

I know plenty of Tories who will always vote Conservative in a General Election, but have openly said they will vote UKIP in the European Elections. I've pointed out to them that its basically helping Labour, but they are fairly set up it.

In fact I had a conversation with one of them this weekend about just this and was told "I don't want UKIP in power, I just want to make a very clear point about where I stand on this." I tried to argue that the Conservatives would protect our interests in Europe but it really was deaf ears.

The Europe issue is very divisive. However, I suspect its pretty divisive for Labour too, among their grass roots. The only party who have no problem with it are the LibDems, for obvious reasons.

Its a tricky one.

[Tapestry]

UKIP under Farage's leadership has joined a group in the EU Parliament committed to a future within the European Union. UKIP is a sham, and a great way for ordinary Joes to get onto the Brussels gravy train.

Ganley's fight against Lisbon is a lot more interesting, and would deserve votes ahead of UKIP. If Ireland breaks the Lisbon stranglehold then there is still hope. If Ireland succumbs then UKIP might as well kiss its confused little arse goodbye.

[Adam in London]

Remind why I should care how many people vote Conservative or UKIP in Euro-elections? What does it matter how many MEPs the parties have?

[Edward Giles]

ChrisD and A Cllr are right. The focus of all Conservatives over the next 18 months should be to build up such a momentum that a Conservative victory at the general election with a workable majority and the defeat of the worst Government in living memory becomes a certainty. That means if you want to achieve a Conservative government do not split the anti- Labour and anti-Liberal vote. Voting for UKIP in June weakens the Conservatives, bolsters Labour and can only increase the possibility of Brown winning the general election.

[christina Speight]

This is a somewhat weird situation. The first thing I note is that nobody in the media has commented on the great differences between the actual vote last time and the preferences in this poll! The Tories (despite some moving to UKIP) are well up and Labour significantly down but UKIP appear to be about to lose half its vote and much more than half its MEPs. The other thing in this poll nobody seems to care about is that this is the lowest figue I have seen for a long time for the idea of leaving the EU altogether - a mere 16%. Of course in a volatile subject like this the campaign will certainly make a difference.

But what on earth is the Tories’ stance. For the life of me I can’t make it out! This ambivalence is epitomised in the depressing Telegraph piece by the normally incisive Iain Martin who doesn’t appear to have much to say on the subject. All seem obsessed by the trivial matter of Ken Clarke. That flurry of excitement is almost as though the Tories feel deprived of something to argue about and so they’ll concentrate on Ken.

It really is about time that the Tory party said what its policy was towards the EU. The fact is that 64% of the population want to either leave the EU or want a radically different or looser relationship must be stronger still amongst Tory supporters . How does Cameron propose to deliver on that?

Frankly until they’ve sorted that out there is no policy for Ken Clarke to support or disagree with. The election - for those who haven’t noticed - is a mere 5 months away!

[UKIPPED!]

Tapestry, you know very well that the EP rules on forming groups forced UKIP to ally itself with parties that do not support withdrawal. The only alternative was to work with far right and fascist parties and libertarian UKIP would never even consider that option.

Ganley has done nothing in Britain and cannot be trusted to defend our interests in Brussels. He is a Europhile and was in favour of the Maastricht, Amsterdam and Nice treaties. If you are a failed Tory candidate who would sell-out our country to the EU, I can see the attraction of Ganley's Brussels-subsidised party.

[Ken Stevens]

ChrisD
"Ken, judging by those polling figures, its UKIP members who are sticking their heads in the sand. And if UKIP's MEPs are almost wiped out in the Euros, then the problem really has gone away."

Chris
1 A vote for UKIP in the Euros is not necessarily a vote for leaving the EC per se. It can also be a shot across the bows to the major parties about them being more EU-enthusiastic than the populace. Hopefully, it will be enough votes to give the smug complacency of some Tories a bit of a knock.

2 If UKIP get wiped out, so be it; the electorate will have spoken (or enough of them as can be bothered to vote in anything these days!). However, I'm not sure of the basis for your seeming expectation of such a wipeout!

[TrevorH]

"The more Conservatives support U.K.I.P. then the sooner we will leave the E.U. "

What a .load of toss -- all voting UKIP will do is perpetuate the labour government.

Only brainless dopes will vote UKIP.

[meli]

"The more Conservatives support U.K.I.P. then the sooner we will leave the E.U. "

What a .load of toss -- all voting UKIP will do is perpetuate the labour government.

Only brainless dopes will vote UKIP.

Posted by: TrevorH | January 11, 2009 at 11:59

Ok someone please explain to me why my vote for the EU elections affects the outcome of a General Election?
So far people here who have said they wish to implement their right to vote the way they want to instead of the way some want them to, have been called nutcases, looney, brainless dopes and obsessed. As the EU itself has called such people mentally ill, I guess I should not be surprised. But I did expect better from the Conservative party to be honest. Thanks.... :(

[Robert Eve]

As things stand I'll certainly vote UKIP for the Euro elections as I did last time.

If the Conservatives change their policy and see utter sense of total withdrawal then I might change my mind.

I'll vote Tory in the general election as I have done since the 1960s.

[Henry Mayhew - ukipper]

Yeah, I'll probably be voting UKIP.

Perhaps the Zionroons can tempt me with their policies in the meantime though!

[Paul Rowlandson]

John Smith is right. 70% said they want to stay in the EU. 25% want to go into the €uro now. I have no doubt that that figure would go up to more than 50% in a referendum.
The 10% who might vote UKIP should not be allowed to dictate to the other 90%. It would be the height of folly to fight the European elections on the sort of rabid anti-European policies espoused by UKIP.

[Tory Pier]

How can people like Dan Beckham ChrisD suggest europe is a distraction to the next GE.

Personally, I don't want to be part of a party who is only interest in being in power for power's sake.

Furthermore, what is the point in being in Government, if it's powers have been transferred to Brussels.

http://torypier.wordpress.com/

[David Melville]

"UKIP is planning a big web campaign to expose the Europhile views of those MEPs that Cameron kept on the Tory lists against the wishes of the Conservative rank and file. He will come to regret that act of centralism.

Posted by: UKIP insider | January 10, 2009 at 20:39 "

So what? Who cares. Fire away.

[UKIPPED!]

Well said, Tory Pier!

75% of our laws are imposed by Brussels -over 3,000 a year! That's why there is not a cigarette paper between the 3 main parties' policies on the EU and most issues.

David Cameron and his Europhile chums are only interested in the perks of office, not changing our country for the better or defending our interests in Europe.

You will not hear them talking about the effects of EU immigration on public services, crime, jobs and wages.

They will not talk about the massive cost of the EU, the regulatory burden it places on businesses or that our courts are under the control of Eurocrats.

All we get is how we must have a Common Energy policy to fight the non-existent threat of climate change.

BETTER OFF OUT of the EU and Cameron's surrender monkeys!

[christina Speight]

I have no time for UKIP for it is because of them that the Tory party was denuded of the activists who would have stopped the slavish attachment to a deplorable anti-democratic authoritarian regime in Brussels which has been the attitude of the Tories most of the time.

I am in common with the 48% of the population (only a whisker from half!) of the opinion thatt would like to see a much looser relationship than exists today. We need a body to represent our wider interests through inter-governmental; agreement and without any majority voting. If the 'core' states of the EEC want a federal state then let them go ahead without us (and perhaps the Swedes, the Austrians, the Danes, and maybe the Irish.

If 48% of the population want thar you can bet your bottom dollar that the percentage is over half in the Tory supporters.

I want a definitive policy about what bCameron would DO about the EU before I decide how to vote. Otherwise although I find UKIP a waste of time except on this one occasion, they'll get my vote as a protest at the pusillanimity on this subject of Cameron.

[david]

A vast majority (64%) say get out or get substantial repatriation of powers from the EU. Since the EU does not go in for giving powers back, those 64% can only achieve what they want by seeking to get out.

[John Moss]

I really cannot see UKIP making even 7% of the vote.

The context for the 2004 elections was completely different. The Conservatives had just swapped leaders and were well down in the polls. UKIP were being pushed by the BBC as they had acquired a high-profile candidate in Kilroy-Silk, who was gainng them publicity over and above what they would usually have got.

The whole RKS/UKIP/VERITAS fiasco left UKIP activists disillussioned and down-hearted. The antics of the MEPs has dismayed many members, former Conservatives, who expect ther elected representatives to behave better than that. More recently, UKIP have had funding difficulties, losing their biggest single backer.

Increasing economic woes for Labour through the spring,as job losses mount and recession bites deeper, will see them lose vote share, probably to the Conservatives, which because of the voting system will make it even harder for UKIP to find a last seat in any region.

I have never placed a bet on an election before, but this time, I will be placing a bet on there being no UKIP MEPs after the June elections.

[Paul Rowlandson]

The "48% want looser ties with Brussels" finding is dubious. What does it mean? What percentage of the UK population would prefer "looser ties" with Westminster? Or "looser ties" with their City Councils? I suspect the percentages would be higher than 48% [which is less than half of those questioned].
70% want to remain in the EU. That is a remarkable figure, given the constant barrage of anti-EU propaganda to which the British people have been subjected for years.

[christina Speight]

David at 1501"Since the EU does not go in for giving powers back, those 64% can only achieve what they want by seeking to get out."

This is not true in that it has never been tried. Go to Brussels armed with a vote calling for a total reworking of our relationship and if they say "get lost" we reply "Please don't say that, or we just might do that!"

Negotiations would happen for they couldn't survive even one major country leaving. They'd have to rethink

The only reason UKIPpers and their ilk say that is to force the issue their way. No party here - or government - has ever had the guts to try OR THE MANDATE.

[UKIPPED!]

"More recently, UKIP have had funding difficulties, losing their biggest single backer."

John Moss spouts his usual rubbish!! We have not lost any large donors. Indeed, we have recruited several large donors who are fed up with Cameron's Europhilia. Unlike the major parties, UKIP has no debts.

[David]

64% want something that the Conservative Party is not prepared to go for, so many will be tempted to vote for UKIP in June.

[UKIPPED!]

"70% want to remain in the EU. That is a remarkable figure, given the constant barrage of anti-EU propaganda to which the British people have been subjected for years.

Posted by: Paul Rowlandson | January 11, 2009 at 15:19"

Wrong! More lies from another of the EU's Lord Haw-Haws!!

In the TPA poll, only 22% want to sat in the EU on current terms. 48% want a free trade agreement only. In a referndum on EU membership the vast majority of the latter group would vote to leave the EU.

This is backed up by another question in the TPA poll. Over 50% of of voters think that renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU.

[UKIPPED]

Part of my last post has been lost and the last sentence should read

"Over 50% of of voters think that renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU is unrealistic".

The 16% who are totally against the EU don't even want a free trade agreement.

[Oberon Houston]

Would be interesting to know how many non-Tory voters would be tempted to vote for us if ken was in the cabinet. Many may dismiss this out of hand, but many many times floating voters have told me they would. In fact during the leadership contest, many told me that they would vote conservative if Ken was leader. What we need to realise here is that we have had three three consecutive terms of a Labour government. Polls current point to a hung parliament, and despite this dire situation, many conservatives care more about Len being shadow Business. Pathetic. Meanwhile Britain goes down the tubes, run by a hopeless Labour Government.

[Oberon Houston]

ps... bloody hell, I've got to preview my posts properly, was on the phone and decided to hit 'Post', would be fine. 'Len'. Honestly. Sooooorrrrry.

pps... I've not had any wine. None. Well, a bit.

[adams]

I want Britain to be ruled from Westminster not by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
Is this what Conservatives want? If you want a federal EUSSR how can you call yourself a Conservative ? After the Lisbon Con Trick is rammed through on the next Irish 'democratic' vote the LiblabCon alliance will morph into euro/clone groupings. checkmate and bye bye Britain.
A vote for LiblabCon is a vote for the death of your country.make no mistake ,so jettison your twentieth century groupings they have no relevance to the dire situation we are faced with.

[Andrew S]

Are the European elections all that important?

[Terry]

I'm very tempted to vote UKIP - I can;t see what there is to lose. At best, UKIP could snowball in popularity, and if in an ideal world it then had a chance of winning a general election, traditionalists like me could happily transfer lock stock and barrel, and that would be the end of the Conservative party forever. At worst, we're exactly where we are.

From a Conservative voter (give or take the odd protest) since 1983.

[John Prendergast]

John Smith is wrong here. if 16% want out and 48% want loser ties then this adds up to 64% who want a big, big, change. Funnily enough 64% is the same figure who dont want the Euro. Subtract the don't knows/to idle to vote and it is clear that most are very unhappy with the EU although they have no ill will to our Eurtopean neighbours.

You all may realise that EU is designed to give Germany tame markets and keep out the Anglos, you must all realise that all decenrt Frenchmen hate Parisians vicerally.

[Goldie]

It'll be much, much more than 10%.