Tory support slips below 40% in Poll of polls

The ICM survey for The Guardian also switches the ConHome Poll of Polls to favouring Labour as the largest party:

Brown leads Cameron by 35% to 24% as the person most likely to get the economy back on track.

Tory Whips are telling MPs to be ready for a 26th February election.

Comments

[Mike Thompson]

I have posted on here many times Osbourne is our achiles hel.Many times I have been told not to panic as we are still ahead and wait until the recession kicks in and we will get back to 20%+ leads. Well it has kicked in, our lead is reducing and thier advantage of the economy is growing. Taking how important the economy is to the voters, how long before Dave takes action and ditches Osbourne. I can see them in front within weeks rather than months if he doesn't do something the public see as radical and a good start would be to ditch Osbourne.

It is falling through our hands like sand and it is not like the leadership hasn't been warned.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

The people answering these surveys must be either paid by the Labour Party, severely mentally impaired, or both.

[Ulster Tory]

I'm confident we will win any election. Bring it on Mr Brown!

[Ulster Tory]

If we don't win, there could be such an exodus of those who value democracy and liberty that the country may fall apart.

[Tony Sharp]

As a party we have no one to blame but ourselves for this showing. On this forum on October 28th, following the ComRes poll that showed us back in hung parliament territory, I said:

"Sitting back in the hope Labour will implode is a dangerous option. Eventually they will have the field all to themselves and the only narrative out there will be the Labour one. People are seeking real leadership and in the absence of that leadership they will gravitate to the only voice they hear.

"We should be explaining why each part of our agenda is relevant not only to addressing the economic crisis we have been dragged into, but strengthening all aspects of modern Britain. If we fail to do that then we do not deserve to form a Government.

"We need to give people a positive reason to vote Conservative, not let people be negative in the hope they choose not to vote Labour. We need people to want to come into our tent because of what we will offer, not be content with them refusing to enter Labour's one."

As far as the electorate is concerned we are falling short. We are not offering a set of proposals that is attractive to them. Fear is trumping reason and the beneficiary - as utterly incredible as it may seem after the year he has had - is Gordon Brown.

We are sauntering towards the last chance saloon. It is time for our leadership to get serious, or forfeit a mandate to govern for another five years.

[NorthernMonkey]

Let me guess, another 'rogue poll' right?

My these 'rogue polls' certainly are piling up. If we didn't know better, you'd think Labour were actually making a comeback!

[Former Tory]

This is an excellent poll for the Tories because it means that a reshuffle of the shadow cabinet is almost certain and that Osborne is likely to be put out of his misery.

I've thought for a while that a lot of members of the shadow cabinet are mediocre at best, and at times they seem like a complete shower.

[Malcolm Dunn]

They may well be Northern Monkey.But as we both know, they're bloody useless but can talk a good game sometimes.

[Chehire Cat]

The problem is that people do not want spin and smarm - they had enough of it under Blair. Cameron and Osborne are lightweight and have no substance.

Can you imagine how different things would have been now if Davis and Clarke were in their place?

How on earth can Labour be polling vurtually the same as their winning GE poll in 2005 in the midst of recession, falling house prices and dole queues on the increase - the answer is we are letting them by having nothing to offer. What a catastrophe. There's no way we will win an election in April or June next year - we need 40% as a MINIMUM and it just isn't going to happen with these two.

Let's get rid.

[JedB]

hmm what is DD upto?

http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/12/justice-for-old-etonians.html

[Raj]

Fire Osbourne and bring back Disraeli!

[Double D lover]

@ JedB, read Iain Dale's post carefully and between the lines.

It suggests that David Davis would be happy to have an Old Etonian Mayor and Speaker but not an Old Etonian as PM. My guess is that he is preparing for a leadership challenge after a Cameron GE defeat next year.

[Jonno]

Cheshire Cat - get real, if we got rid our leader then what? Any constructive suggestions?

Just hold your horses. Polls ebb and flow. Remember Browns 'honeymoon' period - Labour her hitting 40% in the midst the floods and terror attacks. Then the polls went our way and became, at one stage, very very favourable.

Although they have swung back as people flock to the government in the midst of this crisis, we are generally staying on the 40% mark.

Over 18 months Labour support will drop further as the recession really hits home.

If Brown does call an early election next year (I personally think there is more chance of finding Elvis alive than this happening), he will lose at the very very least 50 - 70 seats. It would be an awful situation - with us probably getting the popular vote overall.

If he holds out until 2010, it will be at the very depths of the recession:

- 3 million + unemployed
- millions of savers and pensioners being punished by super low interest rates
- 100000 repossions (between now and the election)

And in that election:

- We have more money and a better infrastructure. Labours local and regional electoral base has been severely crippled since 2005.
- Boundary changes automatically hand us 15 seats
- The Conservative vote turns out very strongly in the midst of a recession (e.g. 1992).
- The big titles (Sun / Mail / Torygraph) will back us (the Sun backed Boris on May).

The worst case scenario in this election is a minority Conservative government. However, I prediect Brown to be in the doldrums by this point so this really would be a worst case scenario.

[Raj]

I have a few questions. If Osbourne is replaced, how long will it take for the polls to consistently show a 60+ Conservative majority? A month? 2? 3?

And if they don't, should the Tories get rid of the replacement and put another person in? And another? When does it stop?

[StevenAdams]

"Let's get rid" is the most knee-jerk and silly response imagineable. Cameron had TRANSFORMED our party's fortunes, has dominated the polls for the large part of his leadership and has outwitted and outflanked Brown repeatedly. Sure, he's not now dominating a liberal-elite BBC that is doing its level best to retain this govt, and some of the normally Con-friendly papers aren't helping (Times and Mail) as his rhetoric isn't extreme enough for them, but it isn't TRYING to be!

He has made voting Conservative a possibility in parts of the UK that haven't thought it possible for decades (Crewe, London Mayoralty), and our polls have been spoiling us as a result. Brown screwed up his first year, but Cameron was politically strong by not answering cat-calls for policy strait jackets that would be stolen or used against us. How many times must we - as activists - call for policy, to see it stolen and repackaged before we learn the lesson?

The policies now in the public domain are sound: one million hours of police time saved through bureaucracy cuts, council tax freezes, funding to support weekly bin collections, a slash of govt PR bills, abolish regional QUANGOs, an NHS constitution, the introduction of free markets into education provision, VAT deferals for small business, govt insurance for bank loans to business, quadrennial military reviews... etc etc etc. The hyperbole above that says we have no policies is merely the mindless repetition of the claptrap spouted by the BBC!

Events, dear boy, events are against him. In opposition we have to sit and watch Gordon destroy our economy and country with borrowing, destroying the pound, ID cards, regionalisation by the back door, planning restrictions imposed from Whitehall, politicization of the police, gerrymandering of local govt funding, destruction of the armed forces, weakening of the integrity of our educational qualifications............. and yet, Gordon can take the platform and in his deep Scottish brogue he can tell Britons that he is saving the world. And sometimes, in a crisis, that's what people want to hear.

But I believe that when the choice comes, people aren't stupid enough for more Brown. Just look at Obama... midway through the campaign he drew level with McCain... but see the outcome. People want change.

[Paranoid]

"Fire Osbourne and bring back Disraeli!"

Ozzie is still in Black Sabbath. If we have to fire anyone it should be Boy George Osborne.

[christina Speight]

This is inevitable until the Party comes clean and tells the crisis for what it is - near terminal . Tell the truth and people will rally then . This particular one is of Tory support leaching away in all directions

Cutting expenditure isn't a policy decision, an option. It's going to happen whether we like it or not. If we do it in a controlled way AND SOON we may survive it . If we are forced into it it will bring "absolute chaos: riots, lynchings, starvation. It’ll be a world without power or fuel, and with no fuel there’s no way the modern agricultural system can be maintained. Which means there will be no food either"

We can't use the 'print money' solution. The pound would vanish out of sight and a $60 barrel of oil would cost us instead of £41 at present, something like £400 . Inflation would go through the roof (farmers and buses can't work without it) Coal would have to be dug to get some electricity for we couldn't afford to build nuclear, (And two-fingers to Climate Change maniacs)

Think what that would do to inflation.

Printing money would be national suicide.

We MUST cut expenditure. There's no other way to stay alive as a nation. BUT - as I have said - we have a chance if we drastically cut expenditure in the next month or two. In practice we won't do it as no party has the guts to tell the truth.

[Jamie]

May I say that it's about time an article was posted in response to the ICM poll. The Guardian released the details about six hours before anything appeared here on ConHome, which is unusual to say the least.

What's the reason for the delay?

Interestingly, nothing appeared on either order-order or Dale. Could it be that you were all waiting for word from CCHQ on how to respond to this truly disastrous new poll?

[Jamie]

Oh, and it seems the only response from CCHQ and their favorite bloggers is to hype up the chance of a snap election, hence "Tory Whips are telling MPs to be ready for a 26th February election".

All in the hope of repeating the "Bottler Brown" narrative of last autumn. Nice to see such a positive approach to turning the situation around!

To quote Dale (ironically his response to the now near-certainty of Osborne being demoted): "It. Aint. Gonna. Happen."

[RichardJ]

Not surprised, we really need to get our economic message across. I suspect the average person doesn't know what our economic policies are except that we don't intend to spend as much as Labour. People may despise Brown and consider the Government corrupt but still vote Labour because they know what they're getting. Come on Cameron, spread the Tory message loud and clear. What is our programme for mitigating the crisis (because there sure as Hell is no solution except to ride the recession out)?

"My these 'rogue polls' certainly are piling up. If we didn't know better, you'd think Labour were actually making a comeback!"

That's what they said when Brown became PM.

[RichardJ]

"Could it be that you were all waiting for word from CCHQ on how to respond to this truly disastrous new poll?"

You're either a troll or a 12 year old. Iain Dale wrote a good article explaining why it is silly to believe that he and ConHome are playthings of CCHQ.

[adge]

I wouldn’t move Osbourne, I think that he is the one person the labour party fear, and who as all the hidden answers that they and the media cannot squeeze out of him, as in "well what would your party do" I believe Osbourne is a lot cleverer than people realise, and a pain in the backside for Brown and Mandleson.

[ChrisD]

Labour on 33% after Brown's attempts to fit himself into the lycra superman suit that the press have tried to spin for him in the last few months.

And lets face it, we all know about that 30-33 core vote box, having been stuck in it for so long. We managed 30 seats in three GE's!

[Johnny]

This has a lot to do with the free PR being granted to Labour by high-street stores displaying signs along the lines of "VAT reduction will be deducted at till, thank you Darling", as displayed in M&S, amongst others. How Labour get away with this I don't know, frankly I wish VAT would go back up to 17.5% as I'm sick to death of my pockets filling overflowing with coppers! The "Great British Public" truly leave a lot to be desired if they fall for that nonsense!

[ryans]

Its clear that the people need somebody they trust on the economy. This to a certain extent is reflected in the polls. Look at the advantage brown/darling have over cameron/osborne, though it should also be noted this hasnt been transfered into a poll lead i.e. its only the economy which is keeping labour in the hunt. Therefore we (speaking as a tory) need to respond economically. In doing so we'd kill the labour recovery and there only chance of winning by calling a winter election. We need therefore someone who has dealt with a difficult economy, is recognisable and trusted. This person is Ken Clarke.

Its obvious that labour know this. Look at the issue of the european currency being dragged up by labour ministers. We mustnt fall into this labour trap. If we want to win with a majority then we need him. If we're happy with a hung parliament, then keep osborne.

[Jamie]

"You're either a troll or a 12 year old. Iain Dale wrote a good article explaining why it is silly to believe that he and ConHome are playthings of CCHQ.

Posted by: RichardJ | December 17, 2008 at 00:25"

That proves what exactly? Richard my friend, there's a world of difference between being a "plaything" of CCHQ and being a conduit for a particular line in a particular set of circumstances. I refer you to the identikit cacophony surrounding the Damian Green saga.

Richard, we can all afford independence of thought and expression when there's a 25-point margin in the polls. When there's a gap of one-five points, it becomes a matter (especially in the case of Tim M and Iain D) of hands on deck and backs to the wall, as it were.

From your one-dimensional logic, Richard, and refusal to answer my query about why it took nigh-on six hours for a response from ToryDiary, I infer that you, in fact, are the 12-year-old - or 14-year-old, since early to mid teens is when the obduracy and stroppiness kick in.

Anyone more adept care to actually engage in the points I raised?

[Opinicus]

@Steven Adams
Transformed (whether with capitals or without) is a precise English word with a definition. - "To change markedly the appearance or form of"

The Yougov poll in
December 2005 was L36 C38 LD18 and on
July 2006 was L33 C38 LD18

Even Mandelson would blanch at calling that a transformation.

Yes. People want change.
Not incremental improvements in administrative efficiency.
Not a more elegant management of the inevitable decline of this once proud nation.
Not an economic policy consisting of taking the Government's figures and shaving 2%
Not a charming actor from a slightly better public school.

This country is on its knees. It has lost its manufacturing base. Its financial and services sectors have been decimated. The national debt is at an all time high. Quislings are using this excuse to enmesh us further into Europe.The Police think nothing of breaking a 300yr taboo and arresting opposition MPs.

Of course we cannot think of sacking Cameron or Osborne. You have voted for them, we are stuck with them. These gilded youths have achieved their lives ambition.
It is too late for them to be careful what they wish for. Their idle hope that they could sidle into office over the mistakes of others with the minimum of effort or thought is transparently false. It does not matter that they are terrified of error. It does not matter that they despise ideas. They have affected the mantle of Pitt, Wellington, Churchill and Thatcher. They must now be worthy of that mantle.

Britain needs change. Cameron and Osborne need to rise to the occasion.
That would be a change.

[ChrisD]

"Oh, and it seems the only response from CCHQ and their favorite bloggers is to hype up the chance of a snap election, hence "Tory Whips are telling MPs to be ready for a 26th February election".

All in the hope of repeating the "Bottler Brown" narrative of last autumn. Nice to see such a positive approach to turning the situation around!"

That is the last thing Brown needs just now. Keep it up Cameron.

[Steve Tierney]

Personally, I don't find this too scary. The media keeps saying "Brown knows how to handle an economic crisis" and frightened people lap it up.

Brown's one chance of capitalising on this would actually BE a very early election... February or something close to that. And I really doubt he's suddenly grown those cohones.

After this, the worsening situation is going to go far beyond the 'stick with what we know' mentality of the moment. Fear will turn to panic. Panic will look for somebody to blame. Everybody will blame Brown.

If, however, he DOES go for a February election, its by no means a sure thing. I suspect our support is a bit better than the polls show and I think it will improve during a campaign period. But February would be a threat, no doubt. If he dared do it.

[Anatole]

Well I have posted many times that we are on course for a majority of 50 - 75 and I stand by that.

1. This crisis has been a massive gift horse for Labour and credit where credit it due, they have taken text-book advantage of it. Nonetheless this is as good as it gets for them and they are still behind and we are still (broadly) at 40%

2. With any given poll you should always add c. + 2% / + 3% for the Tories to understand what would happen in an actual election campaign, where Cameron's vastly superior personality will provide an inherent uplift
___________________________________________

If you don't want to believe it then there will be no convincing you, but the long and short of it is that the Tories are still in a strong poll position given the circumstances and come an election, whether it be early or late, we are best placed to win. I would bet the farm on being the largest party; the house on being in an overall majority; and the barn on being over 50.

[ChrisD]

"If you don't want to believe it then there will be no convincing you"
Anatole, I am convinced you are right. But I don't think that Brown will go for an early GE, he might have employed a few old tribute characters with cojones, but he has not grown any of his own. And yes, I will be betting on Cameron beating Gordon Brown!

[Old Hack]

We talk as though the disappointment of this poll is all self inflicted. Truth to tell, some of it is. But a lot of the reasons for Labour's revival are simply beyond our control.

We've said some tough things recently that needed to be said, particularly about government spending. That's probably put the frighteners on a lot of public sector workers fearful in a recession and worried about benefits the country cannot afford, but which they do not wish to lose.

What gloating socialist in Labour and the Lib Dems should understand though is this:

A) The Conservatives heavily outgun both Labour and Lib Dems on the ground. When it comes to street fighting we have an advantage that was shown in Crewe and Nantwich, Henley and elsewhere. Jacqui Smith watch out.

B) It is highly implausible that either the Labour or Lib Dem share of the vote will get higher than it was than in 2005. Does anyone think that Cameron is going to underperform Michael Howard or that Gordon Brown has the talismanic qualities of Tony Blair?

C) Both the Lib Dem and UKIP vote is flaky and vulnerable. We don't need large swings, just incremental gains to win many seats that were just beyond our grasp last time.

D) Does anyone 'get' how underwhelmed people are by Brown? To put it mildly?

Sure, Cameron may not yet have sealed the deal, but that would mean public sector worker turkeys voting for Christmas.

But Cameron or no Cameron Christmas is coming for those who think working for the taxpayer who is going bust will insulate them from recession. That's where enlightened self interest should kick in and our poll numbers improve. No Government can afford to bribe everyone and Brown's short term attempts to do just that means we have to tough it out, but he'll come unstuck.

[TomTom]

How on earth can Labour be polling vurtually the same as their winning GE poll in 2005 in the midst of recession, falling house prices and dole queues on the increase

Turnout is what matters and polls do not reflect. Turnout by seat. There is a deep feeling that the political parties are sponsored by the very people who have brought ruin upon us and the near invisibility of the Conservatives means the media focus on the ruling party is all people remember when telephoned during their meal by pollsters

[Steve Foley]

"Brown leads Cameron by 35% to 24% as the person most likely to get the economy back on track."

This is the more frightening aspect. Many of the Electorate vote on the perceived persona of the Leader rather than in the Polices of the Party. This could be the telling point.

[michael]

we really do need to do something soon, there is no opposition to this govt, where are the front bench during this financial crisis? dave gets on tv occasionally, we need to be out there & telling the public what we would do differently!

[Onthejob]

Calm everyone the fact uis the polls have settled at about a 5-6% leaf for the conservatives when Labour have been getting the majority of the press coverage shortly things will get worse for labour as the recession begins to hit.

The more indepth bits of the polls show that whilst they trust Brown more witht e economy they agree with the conservatives that the governement is wrong to contine borrowing.

That will begin to show itself in the polls shortly.

[Fred]

A most signficant set of voters and the msot reliable in respect of actually voting are those with saviings accounts. Nothing for savers other than seeing the spendthrifts rewarded. Bring it on Mr Brown!

[StevenAdams]

Christina Speight:

Good Lord... a wee bit melodramatic perhaps??

Jonathan:

Many thanks for the swift English lesson there - how have I managed to-date without your guidance?

If you believe that these poll figures acurately reflect an election outcome, then fine. I'd suggest that we have been bouncing between a 10-20 point lead for 12 months, and as the opposition in an economic crisis we were never going to maintain that persistently.

Cons haven't just 'shaved' 2% off of government figures... expenditure into SERVICES (note the caps) will be maintained. The point is that by cutting extraneous govt programmes and waste (ID cards, PR dynasty, regional QUANGOs etc etc) we will be able to reduce BORROWING. I realise there is only so far you can go in this regard, but I suspect that many of the measures needed will only come to light when in office. Would you list all of your cuts out in a campaign?

In summary, don't be so damn cynical.

P.s. I didn't vote for Cameron I voted for DD. I have, nevertheless, been very happy with the result.

[BW]

Just chill out everybody. Absolutely no need to worry or for any kind of knee jerk action. this is the Christmas season, people are not interested in politics and there is a tendancy for them to be more charitable to a Government, even the basket case we have at present.

All will change in the new year when, sadly, the economic problems will really start to come home to roost. We will be back in double digit leads by the spring, earlier if a February election is called to concentrate minds. Those Christmas credit card bills will hit at the same time as a wave of redundancies...

[GB£.com]

Cameron's reshuffle will be critical.

Those waiting for the 'mood to change' are hanging on to false hope. You may as well click the heels of your ruby slippers together, and chant "there's no place like Number 10".

It is time to be brutally honest. Osborne's IHT was celebrated for stopping Brown for calling an election last year, but you would only want to stop an election you are going to lose. This confirms that despite the image work, after 2 years of Cameron the party faced certain defeat, but after 3 years the chances are slim, but better.

So let's have less of the 'transformation' rubbish and get a shadow cabinet together that connects with the public, not the politicos, as clearly public perception and not detailed policies, are key to non-political geeks who make up the vast majority of the country.

Let's hope that Cameron shows he can make a reshuffle that has the same impact as one of his conference speeches.

Cameron, like Blair, will only be tolerated by his party if he is a winner, there will be no second chance if he loses.

[Old Hack]

Ed one sidebar to this is the use of Electoral Calculus to determine seat projections. Having dug a little deeper in my neck of the woods I reckon that some the EC calculations regarding boundary changes and implied notional majorities are a bit ropy.

I understand you've got to use a uniform swing, even if there is no such thing in reality, but these projections are only as good as the underlying assumptions that EC makes on a seat by seat basis. In one instance a seat EC says would notionally have been a Lib Dem hold in '05 and Con gain next time is nothing of the sort.

If I can find such flaws in just one small area how reliable are the assumptions EC makes elsewhere, how many seats are in the wrong column?

[Ken Stevens]

Brown's rating is 35%, against Cameron's 24%. The really sad thing is not Brown's personal lead but that it is so short of having the confidence of the majority of those polled.
It would be interesting if a poll gave a range of choices for national leadership preference, so that comparisons could be seen between, e.g., Ken Clarke and Mandelson.

'Minor parties' up 2%. I hope that is UKIP rather than BNP! Though of course could be others, such as Greens and cuddly toys.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Massive over reaction here as usual. Many of the posters (always under pseudonyms) I haven't seen before, I wonder how many have the best interests of the Conservative Party at heart?

[YMT]

It's Christmas things are always a bit pear shaped around now, although! Cameron should keep on track, I am hoping for cabinet shuffle and for more big guns to be brought up, In this case I'm also worried that the "Old Etonian" Badge may actually be causing problems now since people are hurting and the stereotype is that people of public school backgrounds never experience hardship which breeds resentment, it's irrational but then people often are.

The economy is going to utterly tank in 2009, I think it's very possible its going to be the case of "it's the economy stupid", all indicators in the financial sector are that when the full effects from the decimation trickle down its going to be very tough for a very many people.

[Sally Roberts]

Editor - would it be possible to have an article from someone who actually works for one of the polling companies who could shed some light on methods used, questions asked etc.?
I agree with those who suggest there is too much panic. I also agree with those who say that the Conservatives outgun Labour on the ground and certainly there will be extra help at General Election time and a grim determination from people who know they are literally fighting for everything that we hold dear!

[Iain]

Never mind the loss of a 20 point lead and seen as more economically incompetent than Labour is a price worth paying to keep Osborne as Shadow Chancellor, after all he's Cameron's mate, and anyway what's the Conservative front bench for but a job creation scheme for some Hooray Henry's. Of course that does ignore what the Conservative party is supposed to be in politics for, that of putting a right wing case and looking to unseat this rotten Labour Government, but as Cameron wants to keep his mate in a job what right do we have to complain?

So lets all get behind the leadership and go forward to another 5 years in opposition comforted in the knowledge that Osborne no matter how useless won’t lose his job or get moved!

[Ulster Tory]

People may say, "I'm going to vote for Labour". But whether they actually would after pondering the issues in the Ballot Box is another thing all together. People want hope for the future, and they won't get anywhere near it under Labour.

[David Belchamber]

"Brown leads Cameron by 35% to 24% as the person most likely to get the economy back on track."

This indeed is the worrying stat. But whereas it is Brown who is leading the Labour charge on the economy, it should be Osborne leading the conservatives but there is as yet no coherent narrative for other conservatives to use frequently on the media.

Why not simply ask:

"Why should we trust the person who was largely responsible for our economic mess to get us out of it now? We need a change".

That is not too difficult to learn and to spout in the way that Labour ministers produce their mantra of the day.

By the way, it is noticeable that Osborne supporters seem quite unable to spell his name correctly, so he cannot be making too much of an impact on them.

[RichardJ]

"From your one-dimensional logic, Richard, and refusal to answer my query about why it took nigh-on six hours for a response from ToryDiary, I infer that you, in fact, are the 12-year-old - or 14-year-old, since early to mid teens is when the obduracy and stroppiness kick in."

Seeing as I don't run ConHome I have no idea why there was a six-hour gap. In the event that you are right, so what?

Incidently my age is 25. Seeing as your only purpose here would appear to be to wind people up I'm revising my estimate of yours downwards.

[Sally Roberts]

"By the way, it is noticeable that Osborne supporters seem quite unable to spell his name correctly, so he cannot be making too much of an impact on them."

Not sure you're right about that, David Belchamber - I'd been noticing that it was the posters that one might be tempted to think of as trolls who misspell George's surname! I also notice that some of them are unable to use apostrophe's correctly and frequently confuse such words as "there" and "their" or "bear" and "bare" - simple grammar in other words.

[Sally Roberts]

Ahem...Yes I KNOW I have just typed "apostrophe's" - hoist by my own petard, obviously! ;-)

[Simon H]

Surely what we\'re all forgetting is the effectiveness of the target seats campaign now in force across the country for the Conservatives.

We saw in Crewe and Nantwich how the polls, which were level-ish, were very wrong and just didn\'t take into account the strength of the Conservatives operation on the ground.

This is what has changed in recent years - there is surely no way the effort of the teams at CCHQ and on the ground can be measured in a national poll and no way its impact will not produce a strong result in many marginal seats.

[Winston C]

The hysterical response to every poll makes no sense.The Electorate is at present viewing the future with foreboding.In such circumstances there is a tendency for some to hold fast to nurse.This will not last.The notion as,John Major put it ,that you ask the burgular who has ransacked your house to install a burgular alarm for you is absurd.

This is exactly the notion that will be tested in the coming year or beyond.Whenever Gordon Brown chooses to call the election he must face the charge of the squandered billions and the failure to deliver.He can choose to cut and run presumably to limit the damage to his party or he can tough it out promising the prospect of massive tax hikes for all and national debt continuing beyond 2016!

Every month next year will be a slow death for Labour.There do nothing charge will become hollow as the so called fiscal stimulus plan turns out to be a charade amidst more and more job losses that make previous recessions look mild.

The posters on Conservative are wholly wrong to argue that the polling volatility as anything to do with George Osborne.He is a highly effective communicator who knows intrinsically what needs to be done.People should remember that Opposition in our political system can do nothing.Government are afforded the lifeblood of swning around the world rubbing shoulders with the great and the good.For all this what are the fundamentals ? we now have the worst recession in living memory borne of a train wreck in the public finances and a society so broken that children are imprisoned for shooting children.What a record Mr Brown will defend when ever he chooses!!

[Opinicus]

@Steven Adams
I didn't suppose you needed a lesson in English, only in veracity.

I am not cynical, I am desperate.

This is a time for greatness. Cameron could write his chapter in the History of England. At the moment, he is heading for a footnote on page 2009.

How can we casually accept a 6 point lead in the midst of the greatest recession in 80 yrs? A lead that points only to a hung parliament and the tender mercies of the LibDems. Did Mandelson and Blair have a 6 point lead in 1996? Had Major trashed the economy and the banking system? Mandelson, lying treacherous little sh1t though he may be, is a political fighter with a strategy, determination and sense of the moment. CCHQ are outclassed.

[Winston C]

1996 was against the backdrop of two major factors.Firstly the loss of the Conservative economic competence tag and the long running sore of Europe.The ballgame is different now.The last 12 years of this wretched Government has diluted public trust in politics and politicians to record low levels.Against this background winning mass popular support is much more difficult.The public are scared distrustful and volatile that is what the polls show.But look at the trend since Brown became leader has he taken Labour up or down?

[Winston C]

1996 was against the backdrop of two major factors.Firstly the loss of the Conservative economic competence tag and the long running sore of Europe.The ballgame is different now.The last 12 years of this wretched Government has diluted public trust in politics and politicians to record low levels.Against this background winning mass popular support is much more difficult.The public are scared distrustful and volatile that is what the polls show.But look at the trend since Brown became leader has he taken Labour up or down?

[Wearside]

Well over the weekend I ceased to be a member of the Conservative Party and I don't think I will be the only one. The party has been hijacked by a small clique of Cameroon automatons.

Alot of honest members are staying silent because they are understandably desperate for a change of government.

The clincher for me is that in the North East members are great as cannon fodder in unwinnable seats but when a safe seat comes up at Hexham - nobody from the North East gets a look in and "one of us" a Cameroon" is parachuted in from the South. A white middle class male lawyer...surprise, surprise.

Well I will be taking my energy elsewhere but should a more inclusive Conservative party emerge in the future - I would be more than happy to return.

[John (Northumberland)]

Here is the reality. There is a big recession underway. The people are scared. Brown says he can fix it - a return to the Boom! And pours out sympathy and tax payers money to prove it.

Cameron says it is Brown's high tax & even higher spending that caused this and we need to 'settle up' and live within our means.

Cameron is right but Brown is resonating with a scared electorate.

However, just be patient. Continue to believe and support the Leadership.

Brown will not call an election unless he is well clear (minimum of 7/8%) in the polls (as 2007 illustrated). Even then the campaign could turn Tory fortunes around (as Obama has just shown). Big risk to take for a Bottler.

The welter of bad news in 2009 will show that not only was Brown the architect of this disaster but now his recovery plan has also proved an abject failure.

Then the electorate will 'get it'; we will win a resounding victory and the business of rebuilding our once great nation can begin in earnest.

[Andrew S]

In the end does it really matter all that much? Even if we lose the next election, I think we can all agree that at the next election after that Labour will get a good and well deserved ass kicking, much like we did in 1997. I look forward to that time, be it 2009/2010 or 2014/2015.

There are so many people here who start to call for someone's resignation as soon as they get one bit of bad press. It's a little bit annoying to be truthful.
I don't much like George Osbourne either, but the negative press we would receive would outweigh any benefit from his removal.

[Andrew S]

Also I hate to say it but as someone else said earlier, we ARE outclassed by the likes of Mandelson.

We need our own Mandelson (!)

[Iain]

"Against this background winning mass popular support is much more difficult"

No its not, people are crying out for some vision for a better future for our country that will take us out of the shambolic mess we are in. The trouble is our career politicians can't see beyond the career plan they've got mapped out for themselves, to take them from University to Minister without ever having done a normal days work in their lives!

What future are the Conservatives offering us than their claim to be slightly less useless managers of the Country than the other lot? Well there's a big surprise in store for them, if we want some third rate managers we can go and hire some for a dammed sight less than the British political establishment is costing us, at least some third rate managers would have some work experience. The political establishment is supposed to be there to offer us a vision of a better future and map out a path we need to take to get there, but I don't see any of that coming from Westminster, all we seem to be getting is just more of the same old same old, muddled , confused, incoherent shambolic mess!

[The Bishop Swine]

Sally Roberts said:

"correctly and frequently confuse such words as "there" and "their" or "bear" and "bare" - simple grammar in other words"

I suppose that makes some sense. After all those who have done less well in school are likely to have developed a chip on their shoulder. I have noticed that Trolls tend to be those who cannot make a proper argument.

“People may say, "I'm going to vote for Labour". But whether they actually would after pondering the issues in the Ballot Box is another thing all together.”
The trouble is that many people would like to vote Conservative but have been made co-dependants by Labour. In this respect the sooner we outline what we intend to do about tax credits and welfare in general the better. I am afraid that I agree with those who feel that DC & GO are not making as much of an impression as they should, considering the very real problems that the government is in.
Finally I am not as concerned about Labour’s recent bouncy castle upswing. It will only last until the first quarter of next year, as the economic problems are going to worsen considerably yet. The only real danger is that Brown is able to time an election and goes to the country before reality undermines his claims to have “saved the world “. At the moment things are looking quite good for an early General Election, as soon as possible, but we know that Brown is likely to bottle out if he is not certain of victory.

I do think Dave needs to reshuffle in the new year and I also agree with those who think the "Old Etonian’s" need to make way to produce a more modern looking, and representative front bench. Like many I think that Ken Clark is a trump card we cannot afford to ignore any longer.

[christina Speight]

Sally Roberts @0903. Well I used Market Research in my enormously successful marketing campaigns and I know about sample building and questionnaire design and perhaps most important of all in a political context - weighting. All of the polls use the same techniques except YouGov. YouGov uses online polls, gets very few refusals (quite high in the other polls) but against that has to weight its answers considerably to allow for the unrepresentativer nature of the internet audience. There is also the question of weighting according tyo stated likelihood of voting and by last general election actual votes. I can't expand on this more here but I suggest some visits to "UK Polling Report" and 'PoliticalBetting.com' will guide one through individual results. There is some real expertise there.

The one thing I would urge is do not dismiss the polls as junk! they're not. These companies compete in the commercial research market place and use political surveys as a kind of advertising. They depend upon getting it right!!!

[Winston C]

People don't believe any vision.We may bemoan this fact but Politics is debased.There is no willingness to be persuaded that anything can be delivered.The Blairite experience has scared our electorate.

Winning back that trust requires a fundamental rebuiling of civic culture.Winning power will be the pre-requisite of this.To that end we need to play the game.It may not be a game that many of us like but it is a game none the less.

The future that our party can offer will depend largely upon the state of the legacy we inherit.We would all do well to remember this fact.There are those who are so frustrated that they will leave the party.That is the way to more Labour Government.

[christina Speight]

The weakness in the Party is its refusal to spell out just how desperate and urgent our situation is. Britain faces the ultimate calamity and still the Party won't grasp the nettle and 'tell it as it is'

The public seem to accept a dire 2009 and then expect things to improve. So Brown is to be allowed to deliver that.

The reality is that we have living lately on the seed corn Brown inherited plus the financial earnings of the City. His legacy from the Tories has now gone and the City will not be the same again. So what are we to live on? We cannot any longer afford excessive spending, no matter how socially acceptable the service.

Cameron-Osborne must tell the true picture. If the people realise how serious our situation is they will rally to the honest politician. But to fiddle around in the small change of politics - as so many on this blog want to do - will lead to a Brown government

[Sally Roberts]

Thank you, Christina - that is a very helpful explanation of what the polling companies actually do!

Bishop Swine - I agree with you that the Conservatives need a reshuffle in the New Year but believe that the main players - Osborne, Hague, Gove for example should remain where they are.

[PeteL]

My views, for what they're worth: -
• Gordon Brown will not call an election until the last minute (2010). Why should he when he has a working majority now and might either lose a GE or face a hung parliament?
• Whoever wins the next GE will have a hellish period of government (I don't think I need to go into detail).
• Like or loathe David Cameron the Tories can't go back. Frankly the return of the 'old guard' and their policies would simply replicate the results of the last three elections.
• Keeping David Cameron means accepting George Osborne.
• The fact that recently David Cameron was able to turn through 180 degrees from supporting Labour's spending plans to directly opposing them shows what little regard his 'policies' are held in. His appeal is still that of a messiah i.e. personality over substance, and as the recession bites that will fade.
• As a GE approaches the electorate tend to polarise to their traditional parties. I'm not a Lib-Dem supporter, but suspect that 18% is too low for them and at a GE will rise to at least 20%.
• It is said that 'opposition parties don't win elections, governments lose them'. Jeering from the sidelines has served the Tories well over the Cameron leadership but even assuming the government makes more mistakes is that really enough to make a disaffected electorate vote Tory?
I'm no Tory supporter, but I hold democracy dear and an ineffective opposition is not good for the country. I just don't believe Cameron & Co. have anything to offer as an alternative government.

[B.Garvie]

Some of the comments on this page are absolute nonsence. Polls are superficial and change constantly. They only give the broadest indicators. They do not say how a vote will be cast in the polling booth.

I am sure at the next Gen Election, ( Spring 2009?? or whenever) D.C will come through leading a winning team to salvage this country from a completely dysfunctional Government.

[John Pendergast]

George Gideon Osborne is a bright chap but has no real work experience, come to that neither has DC really.

DC is charismatic, Gideon's not- so should go. Redwood is at least awake, cool (even too cool) and caustic with a light touch. Clarke is charismatic too but is unreliable on Europe and will be far too old by 2010.

Graylish plays well in his role, Hammond too, both being rational and cool without being wet.

We Tories would win big time if we ditched the Man Made Global Warming Claptrap. After all it is man Made Global Warming that is causinmg the Poles at Mars to melt isn't it?

[Winston C]

Cameron has already shown an awful lot more substance than the New Labour playbook showed in the lead up to 1997.The question posed above concerning what Cameron offers as an alternative government can easily be turned upon it's head.What kind of change wil Labour gives us next or would it be more of the same?

As 2009 wears on GB will be held to his promise to do "all that it " takes whatever that means.As this fails as it inevitably will unemployment will mount and desperation will grow.We will se then whether Labour can continue their bounce.

[Chris Newey]

The do nothing party is baring the brunt of their vacuous attitude to this crisis and I predict a Labour lead by mid-Jan.

The almost gloating and wishing a major recession is sickening by many of these post's - still not suprising from supporters of a party that said the recession should be allowed to run it cause.

[The Bishop Swine]

Christina Speight predicts:

“"absolute chaos: riots, lynchings, starvation. It’ll be a world without power or fuel, and with no fuel there’s no way the modern agricultural system can be maintained. Which means there will be no food either"”

I detect a little wishful thinking going on , its going to be far worse than that L.O.L.
Seriously Christina you need to stop watching survivors and reading the Mail. The Great British Backbone will kick in long before your predicted Armageddon gets started.
I do see a real possibility of fuel rationing and power cuts, but we have been here before in the 70’s and we got through. I do think we should be aware of the real dangers of the moment but there is also a danger of talking a deep recession into a depression of biblical proportions.

[The Bishop Swine]

"Clarke is charismatic too but is unreliable on Europe and will be far too old by 2010"

"Clarke is charismatic too but is unreliable on Europe and will be far too old by 2010"

I don't agree with those who would have Ken as shadow chancellor, but I still think an important job on the front line should be found for my favorite Thatcher era MP. I don’t agree that he is unreliable on Europe he is a team player who would be quite about such things if told it was party policy. However the fact is the Euro-skeptics have got the party by its balls at the moment. The more moderate pragmatists, get labeled as europhiles which is not the case.

[John (Northumberland)]

Chris Newey

What a twisted view you have. Do nothing?

Unfortunately, there is precious little that HM Opposition can do.

The massive Government borrowing (during a boom), failed financial regulatory authorities, the 'easy credit' sponsored property bubble?
The problems are all rooted in what Mr Brown HAS done.

And as for wishing for a major recession? Rubbish - we all bleed; and anyway, there really is no need. With Mr Brown at the helm for the past 11 years, that has always been inevitable.

Recessions will run there course. Whether the hubristic Mr Brown/rest of the command economy socialists believe it or not. They are a vital, if unpleasant part, of the economic cycle. And have always been (discounting a brief moment in history when someone claimed to have abolished them!)

And as for poll lead early next year? As a result of Brown's incompetence, we will probably have a likely sterling crisis, more & more businesses destroyed, unemployment over 2m and heading for 3m?

Do nothing? Please Mr Brown, you have done quite enough.

[dom tolduso]

Tony Sharp is correct to warn of the danger of 'Sitting back' and not taking Labour to task on their serial mismanagement of our economy. The 'masses' are quite capable of understanding the economic arguments if/when our leadership forces Labour to debate them with us. Votes dislike liars and incompetants but I fear the polls are telling us they like political cowards even less.

[dom tolduso]

Tony Sharp is correct to warn of the danger of 'Sitting back' and not taking Labour to task on their serial mismanagement of our economy. The 'masses' are quite capable of understanding the economic arguments if/when our leadership forces Labour to debate them with us. Votes dislike liars and incompetants but I fear the polls are telling us they like political cowards even less.

[London Tory]

I somehow think that it is too late. Images have been formed, and impressions given.

The Party has bet the house on David Cameron, and David Cameron has bet the house on George Osborne.

And despite all their mates in Blog World, both will only get one shot at it.

[Tapestry]

Brits are celebrating the taming of inflation, and are loving lower interest rates, falling fuel and other commodity prices, and the desperate attempts of retailers to sell to them.

The pain of deflation is only just starting however. Fewer jobs. Less hours available to work. Higher unemployment. Falling stock markets. Falling house prices. Vast government deficits. High taxes.

Gordon’s trying to ride the joy of the end of the old world before the pain of the new is fully registering. If Cameron returns to a pro-enterprise, anti-client state, pro-growth stance and reducing government debt, he will beat Brown into a pulp.

But he should start with the message now and not wait for an election period when the message will appear opportunistic. People don’t need a state that says ‘don’t worry we will carry you forever’. The state cannot. Britain needs a government that says we will help you to help yourselves, by reducing the burden of government.