Raising the prospect of a hung Parliament

I didn't see today's edition of BBC2's Daily Politics as I was following Gordon Brown's press conference, but PoliticsHome cites some interesting comments made on the programme by Ed Vaizey, the Cameroon shadow culture minster:

“We are going to win the next election outright but should it turn into a hung parliament I would expect us to work with the Lib Dems. I would be amazed if they prop up Labour.”

He did add, however, that whilst his was unlikely to be a formal coalition, he believed the Liberal Democrats would “be sensible and support a minority Conservative government”.

This raises several points. Firstly, there is the question of whether Conservatives should be discussing the scenario of a hung parliament in the first place. Some might say that it is a sign of weakness to be effectively suggesting that an outright Tory victory might not on the cards (although Ed did dutifully preface his remarks by saying it was). But I disagree for several reasons:

• It clearly is a possible outcome and therefore it is mature and responsible for politicians to countenance that eventuality;
• To talk in terms of assuming a Conservative majority could variously be deemed to be complacent, arrogant, taking voters for granted etc.; 
• Reminding voters that the next election could be very tight will hopefully focus their minds on the choice that the country faces - ie a Conservative or Labour administration - and hopefully discourage anyone wanting a change of government from wasting their vote on the Lib Dems, UKIP etc.; and
• It will put pressure on the Lib Dems to answer the same question themselves rather than brush it away with a "we want to maximise our votes and maximise our seats".

But what of the main point? I agree entirely with Ed Vaizey.

If Labour are given the thumbs down, the electorate would surely not forgive the Lib Dems come the following  election if they sought to prop up a minority Labour government on its way out which had clearly lost people's confidence.

Similarly, I would also venture that it would be electorally daft in the extreme for the Lib Dems to do anything to frustrate a Cameron administration which happened to be short of an overall majority. Any attempt to scupper a Conservative legislative programme would surely see them punished at a further election sooner rather than later.   

Incidentally, if any opposition politician is likely to know Nick Clegg's innermost thoughts about these and other matters, it is Ed Vaizey: last year the pair spent a week at close quarters trekking across the Arctic together for Westminster Challenge.

Jonathan Isaby

Comments

[Tanuki]

he believed the Liberal Democrats would “be sensible and support a minority Conservative government”

The words "sensible" and "liberal democrats" should never be used in the same sentence without a negative operator.

[rugfish]

The attitude is one of defeatism and it doesn't matter how many veiled arguments are put forward when the only argument is WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE A QUESTION.

I believe I'm like many people who call themselves a Conservative here, in saying that I refuse to duped again at the polls by ANY Party which fails to address the fundamental area of policy which has divided us since the 80's. That policy has to be addressed well before an election so people know where they are heading.

I don't think talk of coalition is useful as in my particular case I would take that as a failure to address the changes we need and a failure to show bravery with the electorate.

A hung parliament is failure.

A loss on principles is not a bad thing when an honest election has been conducted and that should be the only consideration at the next GE.

Honesty with the electorate will go further eventually.

I guess you know what area of politics I am referring to.

[GB£.com]

"discourage anyone wanting a change of government from wasting their vote on.."

Of course it is only a 'wasted' vote as the system is designed to prevent parliament from accurately representing the will of the people

Being told to vote for a party that you do not believe in because the system is skewed to favour the status quo simply highlights quite how sick our electoral process is.

[Stewart Geddes]

For those of us fighting LibDems at the next election this is the most effective way of ensuring that we don't win, thereby making the possibility of a hung parliament where the LibDems follow tradition and support the Labour Party far more likely.

[james cullis]

in a hung situation we should talk with the DUP due to some similar positions on the4 family Values, Trident ect

[Concanvasser]

Brown is in a poorer position now than he was last October when he bottled an election. To call an election in 2009 would mean him sacrificing being PM for another year+ for the CHANCE of emerging the largest party in a hung parliament. Why on earth would he? There is nowhere near enough of an incentive for him to risk it and I would "stake the farm" on him holding out till 2010. He does believe he is saving the world so presumably believes he will receive some credit if he waits long enough. There's also the chance of "events, dear boy" which might still give him a chance...
Brown holding out till 2010 is also the reason we do not need to spend too long talking about hung parliaments. By 2010 the full implications of what this depression means for every family in the UK will be painfully clear. A outright Tory majority remains by far the most likely outcome (maj of 30-50 for my money).

[Tim]

If Nick "30" Clegg has the deciding vote then it will be a Well Hung parliament.

[Concanvasser]

Brown is in a poorer position now than he was last October when he bottled an election. To call an election in 2009 would mean him sacrificing being PM for another year+ for the CHANCE of emerging the largest party in a hung parliament. Why on earth would he? There is nowhere near enough of an incentive for him to risk it and I would "stake the farm" on him holding out till 2010. He does believe he is saving the world so presumably believes he will receive some credit if he waits long enough. There's also the chance of "events, dear boy" which might still give him a chance...
Brown holding out till 2010 is also the reason we do not need to spend too long talking about hung parliaments. By 2010 the full implications of what this depression means for every family in the UK will be painfully clear. A outright Tory majority remains by far the most likely outcome (maj of 30-50 for my money).

[Daniel Kawczynski MP]

As joint Chairman of the All Party group for the promotion of First Past the Post I feel very strongly that any deal with the Lib Dems must not give them any form of proportional voting system for Westminster elections. We need to have constituency MPs accountable to their own community rather than Party List systems and MPs representing vast regions with no accountability to the people.

Daniel Kawczynski MP

[David Cooper]

In 1974 Harold Wilson bided his time for a few months without seeking any kind of coalition with the Liberals, then defeated Ted Heath in a second GE and ended up with a working majority. If Harold Wilson could succeed in effectively telling the electorate to be a little more decisive, surely DC could if the same circumstances ever arose.

[YMT]

Didn't Blair do this exact same thing at one point with meetings with the lib dems for a coalition?

[True Blue]

I do hope the media don't pick this up. It reeks of panic. We should get a decent majority, so this talk of hung parliaments at this stage is a really bad idea.

[Malcolm Stevas]

GB£:
"Being told to vote for a party that you do not believe in because the system is skewed to favour the status quo simply highlights quite how sick our electoral process is."
This is perhaps the most succinct commentary I've seen on the present system. Thanks.
I cannot be alone in hoping for a long-term Parliament that is too weak to get away with anything much: maybe we could get on with restoring some prosperity for ourselves and country, and enjoy a bit of peace too, without a bunch of egomaniacal parasites passing umpteen new laws every day. And BTW I believe "hung" is ungrammatical: the correct form is "hanged," unless I'm just being optimistic...

[Malcolm Dunn]

Good post and good luck Daniel.

[m dowding]

As long as somebody prevents Labour from rigging the ballot they will be marmelised by a poverty stricken electorate desperate for change.

[Roberts]

The way things are going to be silent on the possibility of a hung parliament is to leave parties open to any wild suggestion that might emerge.
Lib Dems with the exposure of a General election are likely to reach a higher level of support than at the last election. Remember the TV programme following the last series of political conferences which Nick Clegg won overwhelmingly. Will he do it again ? Don't rule it out.
Cast another look at local by-elections - hardly a week without a Lib Dem gain somewhere or other - often from the Conservatives. We ignore this sort of evidence at our peril. And what if part of the Lib Dem condition for support in a hung parliament (from Labour or Conservative) is P.R. ?

[Mr Disgusted]

How pathetic, doesn't this just show what a lightweight out of touch leadership you have.
Defeat from the jaws of victory, how the hell is it humanly possible to lose in the current enviroment.
Who would have thought the Tory Party could ever come to this?

[Old Hack]

A lovebomb of the type that gives Lib Dem activists sleepless nights.

We should start naming portfolios. I suggest Clegg for Foreign Secretary and Cable for Enterprise. We should also offer them their referendum on UK membership of the EU and watch them run fleeing into Gordons arms.

[Roberts]

Surely Cable for Chancellor !

[Wearside]

Let's stop pussy footing around - with such a tired, bloated and ineffective government it should be a comfortable landslide victory.

If it is anywhere near a hung parliament the "Cameroon Project" will have failed miserably..

That is the bottom line.....

[Another Richard]

"If it is anywhere near a hung parliament the "Cameroon Project" will have failed miserably."

The 'Cameron Project' has failed.

That's not to say that the Conservatives can't win the next election or that if it is held in 2010 there wouldn't be a Conservative landslide. However people would not be voting for the Conservatives, they would be voting against Labour.

The Conservative leadership's mistake (and this is leading to the decline in the polls) is to think that their lead is down to their own brilliance and not to the fact that 40+% hate Brown and Labour.

Boris on the other hand is I think genuinely popular.

[Walaa]

I think it is both realistic and wise to consider the possibility of a hung parliament and even wiser to whisper the possibility of us and the Lib Dems 'working together'. I get the feeling they are ready to be asked and will accept.

But most of all because voter needs to know that the next election 'when ever it might be called' is a very crucial election on so many levels.

[Walaa]

I think it is both realistic and wise to consider the possibility of a hung parliament and even wiser to whisper the possibility of us and the Lib Dems 'working together'. I get the feeling they are ready to be asked and will accept.

But most of all because voter needs to know that the next election 'when ever it might be called' is a very crucial election on so many levels.

[Sally Roberts]

"We should get a decent majority, so this talk of hung parliaments at this stage is a really bad idea."

True Blue, I agree with you! We should not be talking like this at this stage - we should be going all out to win. If and when the situation arises, THEN and only then is the time to discuss Hung Parliaments.

[Diablo]

Why has no one commented on Ed's 'wobbly' collar? He looked like he'd spent the night on a park bench after a particularly good party! I've just watched the exchange on IPlayer and I thought he could have phrased his comments more eloquently. But what would you expect from a Shadow Arts Minister? (OK, he used to be a barrister but maybe there reasons why he gave it up?)

[Goldie]

This is really rank amateurism. Vaizey should be ashamed of himself. The Tories should obviously not mention any kind of hung parliament scenarios in public. It's presumptuous and tactically clumsy.

We should work as hard as possible to get the results we need. The voters will speak, and then we will see.

[Darrell]

I think it probably is a bit sillier for Tories to talk about a hung-parliament than it is Liberal Democrats who, as you rightly say Jonathan, do have to answers these questions whether we like it or not and most Lib Dems tend not to like it to be honest. However, with all the polls pointing that way at the moment I guess it is a fair topic to raise.

To me [as a Liberal Democrat] the simply equation is; well, ok but only if the price is right. You don't get something for nothing and certainly not because you think you deserve it; the fact is if the scenario did unfold where the Conservatives were a minority government then I would argue you had made not a significantly convincing case to the country to claim you would 'morally' deserve our support.

We should [and I dont know if this is what would happen] represent our voters who give us a mandate to win our policies. Thus concessions would have to be made and personally I would expect at least a referendum on voting reform as part of that package. You have to bear in mind Clegg would also have to actually put together a deal which he could sell to his party as well as all other considerations.

[Joe James B]

The Lib Dems should be crushed - not accomodated.
By running strong national campaigns in their seats, with a local context, we can push them to a tipping point where lots of them lose.
Under no circumstances should hung Parliaments be discussed.