New ComRes poll has Tory lead remaining at 1%

UK Polling Report has news of a poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday:

The changes are compared with the ComRes poll in the Independent on 2nd December.

The fieldwork for this latest poll was done on Wednesday and Thursday.

Electoral Calculus suggests that these latest figures - on a uniform national swing etc - would give Labour a majority of 20.

Update: More information on John Rentoul's blog

Comments

[Yachting for Dummies]

Another triumph for George Osborne. How long will this go on then?

[Alex]

All we have heard from recently are Populus and ComRes, who have partisan fieldwork methods.

Anyone know of any non-partisan polls being released soon?

[John Leonard]

Ah well last time Labour were leading in the South East 36-34 (they are now losing 49-32)

Last time the Conservatives were winning in the South West 51-31. Now Labour are winning 39-30.

I don't buy this. These variations are just too wild (given the rest of the regional figures are fairly stable).

Another duff poll I'm afraid.

[jonathan]

theres usually a you gov or similar in the sunday times in the middle of the month, there might be one out tomorrow.

it was the one that gave us our first 16pt lead since the 80's

[David (One of many)]

Another small lead and another doomsayer turns up. How predictable.

Alex, I believe will be getting an ICM or a YouGov on Tuesday.

[David (One of many)]

Certain to votes are at 41/33, which is interesting.

[Simon H]

Here's the other poll tonight:

YouGov survey for the Sunday Times remaining virtually unchanged from a similar poll last month.

The poll showed a slight increase from 5% to 6% in the Conservative lead over Gordon Brown's party, with Tories on 41% (unchanged), Labour on 35% (down one) and Liberal Democrats on 15% (up one).

By a margin of 54% to 30%, those questioned said they supported the VAT cut - which lasts until January 2010 - and other measures announced in the PBR.

But more than half (53%) said Labour was mainly interested in winning the next election, rather than saving the economy.

:: YouGov interviewed 2,098 British adults online on December 11 and 12.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

I don't believe this poll or the Populus one either. Is Brown being led into an election ambush?

I should point out that I worked (for a very short period) with a "respected" polling organisation.
They can all be manipulated to deliver whatever result is being paid for.

[Mr Disgusted]

Is it any wonder when the Tories are largely in line with Gov't thinking on all the big issues and cameron is next to useless?

[YMT]

Frankly I think the change in fortunes has been a deserved backside kick for the leadership being caught totally unprepared and seemingly incapable at offering a coherent economic standpoint during the initial drastic change in market conditions.

While Brown, on reluctant merit, did seemingly provide a reasonably quick and coherent response to the problem, and while I don't agree with many of the things that have been done and we can all debate the rights and wrongs of these, the Conservatives came across as being caught in the headlights seemingly jumping around and looking a bit lost.

I do believe that we will still win the next election, however this should be a lesson that there is no alternative to an absence of depth and substance by having a pretty store front.

[ryans]

The maths on this comres poll just doesnt add up, literally!!!

on page 16 of 24, it reads total male 116, total female 116 for the tories. This totals 232. HOWEVER comres say the total is 231. you may say this is irrelevant. IT IS NOT. 232= 37.6% i.e 38%; 231= 37.4% i.e 37%

Can some one please shread light on this as it is important i feel

[Raj]

The certain to vote figures look much better. Rules out a Winter election for obvious reasons.

[Another Richard]

The Conservatives need to promote Greening, Afraiye and Pickles. We need to see less of chinless wonders like Osborne and Grieve and to get rid of Spelman.

[Pat]

Christmas polls are meaningless. Wait for January when people are distinctly less positive/preoccupied.

[MG]

We have to accept that while we are ahead, the lead has moderated. There is now evidence of this in a few polls. YouGov suggest a slight up-turn but overall this seems to be the case. I do think an ICM would be useful to really have some confidence about the figures though. Its also fair to say that polls around Christmas are a bit iffy.

However it is no good being silly about all this and blaming polling companies. I think if we are absolutely fair and level headed about this its not really surprising. We have had a period when Brown was dominating the media with his frantic actions. At the same time the Conservative narrative has not been as focused as normal and has been sidelined by the odd incident or two.

When Cameron is in the media with a strong consistent message we always do better. Talking to people they like his positive, forward looking approach but they also think just a bit more age/gravitas in the rest of the front bench around him would strengthen the team. They don't mind him being younger and see that as a good point but they think the balance is not quite right. Its interesting that Obama was quick to appoint the odd heavyweight to back him up.

[Steve]

CONres.

[David Robertson]

@ryans: This is just an artefact of rounding to the nearest integer. After weighting for likelihood to vote you could have, for example, 115.6 males and 115.7 females. Both would be rounded up to 116, but their sum 115.6 + 115.7 = 231.3 would be rounded down to 231.