Latest YouGov poll has Tory lead rising to 7%

A new YouGov poll for tomorrow's Daily Telegraph has the Conservative lead rising by one point to seven points.

According to the UK Polling Report swing calculator, this would leave David Cameron nine seats short of an overall majority - although this does not take account of the fact that there will hopefully be some additional Conservatives among the 18 MPs from Northern Ireland.

The survey was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday and the comparisons are with the most recent YouGov poll for the Sunday Times which had a 6% Conservative lead.  The equivalent Telegraph/YouGov poll last month showed a Tory lead of 4%.

Comments

[Clive Elliot]

And I suspect that the Tory lead will gradually pick up to above 10% over Christmas as people start to appreciate the dire consequences of the present economic situation, and recognise that Gordon Brown having been in charge of the exchequer for over 10 years may be at least in part responsible.

Also I suspect that folks will begin to think that a problem of overindebtedness cannot be solved in the long run by borrowing more; they may compare the country's situation with their own circumstances, and recognise that the problem can only be resolved by cutting back spending while preserving income.

With the long Christmas break coming up, they will have plenty of time to cogitate about such matters, helped no doubt by media comment and analysis.

[MrB]

Looks like this is as good as the Brown bounce is going to get.

[steve]

So 35% of the electorate are still morons then?.

[MG]

Cameron was in the media more recently and also I think people are beginning to realise more about the economic situation. Conservatives need now to build their position and their approach to take the country forward.

[john]

Please, no more polls until after Christmas.
Er, unless they show 10+ point Tory leads.

[Diablo]

It's not just the big announcements of job cuts (eg Woolworth, MFI) and the shut-downs in the motor industry that will highlight the depth of this recession that Brown has caused. The cumulative effect of many, many smaller concerns shedding staff plus some local authorities cutting costs will start to show people locally that the government's solutions are not working. Then we will see if people still trust Brown and his abysmal government. I predict the Conservatives should be 15% ahead by June 2009 - but Cameron and Co will have to be careful how they manage this transition.

[Tom FD]

The Tories haven't had an election worth fighting since Haltemprice & Howden. Once they get into electoral campaigning mode, they'll break through again easily. The Conservatives have an excellent grassroots campaigning base.

[ChrisD]

I will be taking all polls with a pinch of salt until mid January.

I recommend this excellent article from Anthony Well, it is well worth reading.
The abyss ahead of Gordon Brown….

[Raj]

This is not good enough - the Tories should be 100% ahead in the polls.

Bring back Peel!

[houndtang]

Bwaaaaaaaaaaarhhhhhhhhhhhrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!! Sirrah, the traitor CAMERON must be immediately replaced by a duumvirate of Bill Cash and Nicholas Winterton.

[Steve Foley]

I wouldn't depend on the washed up UUP to be of any use to the Conservatives at the next General Election. Politics in Ulster have polarised so much that they have been run off the road by the DUP. To be honest if I lived in Ulster I wouldn't vote for Empey and his lot!

"I will be taking all polls with a pinch of salt until mid January." Chris D.

I've done that since June 1970!

[eugene]

YouGov are very good at getting it right.

Unfortunately, it is not enough for a majority. Secondly, the governing Party always does somewhat better in the real poll.

I personally am amazed that Labour is doing so well.

However, it is Christmas, people are irrationally upbeat at this time of the year, it does look good on paper seeing ones mortgage payment going down- like a drug, this will have a come down and then I hope the polls will reflect that we have a government that fails in just about everything they touch.

Britain really does deserve better.It is up to the Conservatives to show, in some detail, that they can and will do better. It does not help Britain by waiting for the government to fall apart. It helps a great deal if there is realistic hope for something better.

[m dowding]

Since Mandy and Campbell joined forces polls are only permissible for expected Labour participants. Ergo, this is 45% of ex-Labour who will vote Conservative. An election will produce Crewe like swings across the Country. Just you see!
It is so bad for Labour, Mandy seeks to mince on SCD and Campo is back on the booze.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Quite agree Raj.Where are all the trolls? They only come oput when it's bad news.

[Winston C]

This Poll is good news.I do observe however the position of the Lib Dems.Recent rival polls have recently put their support higher.My gut feel is that in a general election this poll understates the lib dems by around 5% and overstates Labour by 5%.

[christina Speight]

I suggest to all that they have a look at the UK Polling Report's analysis of the polls in general. It attempts -and succeeds as far as I can can tell - to explain apparent contradictions.

it's on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/ under the title "The abyss ahead of Gordon Brown…"

In sending it to my lists I comment "People are puzzled by the ever-worsening economic news combined with an improvement in Labour’s standing in the polls. This analysis from a highly respected source attempts to answer that conundrum and paint a possible scenario for at least the first half of 2009."

The analysis ends with "However, even if the economy does drag Labour’s support down again, it doesn’t follow its going to happen straight away, or indeed that Labour won’t rise further before economic reality hits home. If Labour do get closer to the Conservatives in the polls (or indeed overtake them) in the new year, then Gordon Brown really should call an election there and then.
Under the circumstances, he could win it."

[Andrew S]

All the opinion polls always underestimate the Lib Dems. If i remember correctly at the last election they got around 21% of the vote.
But there was of course Iraq factor and Charles Kennedy as leader so that was probably why.

[Simon Denis]

Reassuring, certainly. But the Beeb is doing its best to support Labour. Did you see that appalling rubbish from whinging Peston about "The New Capitalism" as though the market, not the bungling Brown, were responsible for our present impasse? Expect more left-propaganda from this disgusting state broadcaster. They will do all they can to deprive the right of victory. Should we win, and today I am more confident that we will, the Beeb must be made history as soon as possible - along with the Soviet Union and Pol Pot and all other socialist organisations.

[David Sergeant]

Just to point out that one of the "sub polls" of this poll put the Tories ahead on economic competence. This is the biggy.

[Votedave]

"According to the UK Polling Report swing calculator, this would leave David Cameron nine seats short of an overall majority - although this does not take account of the fact that there will hopefully be some additional Conservatives among the 18 MPs from Northern Ireland."

I think a bigger factor is the strong possibility of larger swings in marginal seats (as in 1997 and even 1992). This breakdown in the popular vote would be more likely to give us an overall majority of around 20 imho.

[Votedave]

I should warn my colleaguues that ComRes is appearently going to issue another poll result before 2008 is out - given their recent track record they may show Labour ahead, be prepared.

[rugfish]

The latest ComRes/IoS poll showed the Conservative Party's lead decreasing from 11% to just 1% since the November IoS poll:

Given that the poll results here may be accurate, I'm somewhat surprised not to see or hear any discourse on the subject of taxes when it is as stark as the nose of a shark about to bite you, that TAXES ARE clearly why people are leaning toward Brown.

Con 37% (-6)
Lab 36% (+4)
Lib Dem 14% (+2)
Others 12% (-)

Other political questions:

Taxes would be lower if the Conservatives were in government:
Agree 35%
Disagree 58%

The fall in the value of the pound shows that Gordon Brown’s economic plans probably won’t work:
Agree 52%
Disagree 39%

The Conservative response to the economic crisis seems to me like a ‘do nothing’ strategy:
Agree 45%
Disagree 45%

The Labour Government is planning to borrow too much:
Agree 67%
Disagree 25%

Most people say his policies won't work, most people say he's borrowing too much.

Message received on borrowing now what are you going to do about taxes ?

OFFER A CUT IN INCOME TAX and a reversal of the VAT 'trick' and we've cracked it !

[Yet Another Anon]

although this does not take account of the fact that there will hopefully be some additional Conservatives among the 18 MPs from Northern Ireland.
The UUP and SDLP are both heading for oblivion - I expect there to be 13 DUP MPs and 5 Sinn Fein MPs after the next General Election, this means all those attending Westminster from Ulster would be DUP - the UUP are an irrelevance now at a Westminster level.