Latest ComRes poll reduces Tory lead to one point

After a couple of encouraging polls in the immediate wake of the Pre-Budget Report, tomorrow's Independent carries a new ComRes poll which reduces the Conservative lead over Labour to a single percentage point.

The figures are:

If repeated at the next General Election this is projected to give Labour an overall majority of 10 in the House of Commons.

The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday and shows a significant boost in Labour support among its working class support base (Labour backing rising from 35 per cent to 51 per cent in the last month among the DE social group).

The Tory lead is its narrowest in any poll since January, when an Ipsos MORI survey put Labour one point ahead.

Jonathan Isaby

7am, Tuesday: "Labour's private polling has found strong support among the party's traditional supporters for the Chancellor Alistair Darling's surprise decision to bring in a higher top rate of tax in 2011. One Labour source said last night: "People wanted to see decisive action taken on the economy. What is hurting the Tories is that they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are the 'do-nothing' party." Although some Tory MPs are worried that the party is suffering from a lack of economic policies, allies of David Cameron are urging them to "hold their nerve". They believe the polls will turn against Labour next year as the recession bites." - The Independent

Comments

[Simon]

It is a rogue

nothing more, nothing less

panic no

[Owen Meredith]

this seems out of sink with other polls in the last few days... Was the fieldwork done differently?

[SRN]

How much did Labour pay for that poll?

[patriot]

Unbelievable...............

[David]

It's pretty shattering. Maybe the Damian Green affair has boosted Brown. I can't think why, but there's nowt so queer as folk.

[m dowding]

How much did Labour pay for that poll?

Posted by: SRN | December 01, 2008 at 22:29

Probably based on their projected postal fraud come the big day!

[Vincent Wall]

Says more about Comres than the state of public opinion.

[Jon]

The same number of people voting Labour at the next election is NOT roughly the same as Conservative.

Forget this poll. Waste of money whoever commissioned it.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Looks like the good people at ComRes didn't fancy a knock on the door in the middle of the night, so came up with the "correct" result!

[Steve]

If this was Genuine the coward Broon would hold a snap general election!.

But he wont, and why?, well its either rigged or whoever was polled certainly were not English.

[all lower case]

it's a shame the indy can't afford a proper pollster

let's wait on yougov

[Raj]

Take a look at the regional breakdowns - very odd indeed. Doubtless we shall see what other polls over the coming weeks say, though I can't imagine anything in the last couple of days would have shifted public perception that much.

[Matt Wright]

Fine lets have an election then but I doubt it will end up with these figures!

[John Leonard]

Can I just point out that in the detail this poll shows Labour beating the Conservatives by 36% to 34% in the South East.

If that were true I would emigrate. They seem to have screwed up their sample so I don't think there is any need to panic. it looks like a rogue!

[Raj]

Actually it's a Telegraph poll.

[Observer]

is this the Osborne effect?

[dave]

Poll shows a massive increase in Labours vote among DE voters, could it be the 45% tax rate?

[David (One of many)]

Dave - what, they didn't notice it the last two times they were polled? Something is off here - very off.

[David (One of many)]

John Leonard, it also has the Tories at 41% in Wales and South West; a region where the Lib Dems essentially have all the MPs and yet are polling at 7%.

[Raj]

is this the Osborne effect?

Has Osbourne even been on the news since the ICM and MORI polls? We are talking about Friday-Sunday.

[Adrian]

If this is true I will get my passport out and look to move abroad - I cant live another 5 years under these people

[Raj]

Oh, sorry, it is an Independent poll - but reported by the Telegraph.

[Edison Smith]

This is a rogue and The Independent have buried it.

- It shows Labour ahead of the Tories in the South East!!

- It shows the Lib Dems on 7% in the Westcountry!

- It has a 15% swing of voters in the lowest social bracket moving back to Labour.

Red faces all round at ComRes tonight methinks....

[Geoff]

Adrian, Spain is nice and warm even at this time of year. I'll buy you a beer when you get here.

[MG]

It also had Conservatives way ahead of Labour in Wales. In some parts they are but not across the whole of Wales. Something seems 'iffy.

[Gloy Plopwell]

If Comres corected their southwest figure lib Dems would be even higher. Lyne featherstone's majority in Hornsea and Wood green will be 20,000 with suspendours momentum. Lib dems onwards to victory in 2010! very excriting.

[meli]

Lib Dems on 7% in Wales? Uhhh..... :P

[Raj]

Edison, the Independent don't have any politics articles on their website yet for tomorrow, so unless you have insider info it's possible they'll still publish it.

[Geoff]

I'm fascinated by Gloy's "suspendours momentum". Sounds rather indecent, which would fit in well with recent LibDem scandals.

[YMT]

So from this poll I gather that suddenly the home counties and southern shires have had a massive swing and switched to Labour? whut?!?

[Tony Walker]

This poll looks like it has been commissioned by Labour- I'm hoping Dominic Grieve is taking a very close look at any statutory instruments that involve postal voting etc. However although i believe we are still ahead this poll should remind all of us campaigning that we have not yet sealed the deal. When talking to fellow supporters earlier this year I heard complacency and that the slogan was some sort of joke- it isn't. Every time you knock on doors think of 5 years more of Labour- no party that has 'won' will never be just a point ahead- even in a suspect poll

[Sally Roberts]

So suddenly the South East has gone Labour?! Not from where I am standing it hasn't....

This poll is a load of rubbish.

[Patsy Sergeant]

John Leonard @ 22.49 - 'Can I just point out that in the detail this poll shows Labour beating the Conservatives 36% to 34% in the South East.'

So they must have done the poll exclusively in the Hastings/Bexhill area, which is I think the area in the paper that shows 40% of population are client state customers!!

The map came out in the papers over the last couple of days or so.

[Tim]

ComRes has never been reliable...far too erratic!

[Geoff]

Tim, much as I respect Mike Smithson's mantra of 'a rogue poll is one you don't like', I think you are spot on. This poll is so off the wall I think it can be disregarded.

[Public Sector Worker]

"So they must have done the poll exclusively in the Hastings/Bexhill area, which is I think the area in the paper that shows 40% of population are client state customers!!"

I think that you will find that the Hastings/ Bexhill area comprises of one very safe Conservative seat and one very marginal Labour seat. The polling would certainly not be what you expect! I should know, I live in Hastings, work in the public sector and am a member of the Conservative party.

[Joe James B]

Don't panic.

(There are outlyers from time to time - not necessarily anything wrong per se with the company, but you have to get bulk).

It is a volatile time, and we do have more to do on the economy - ironic as it may seem to us, but our lead is not 1%. (!)

[James Walton]

I thought Com Res was one of the pollster that gave a slight Conservative bias?

[resident leftie]

Complete and utter nonsense.

[Patsy Sergeant]

The article was actually in today's Mail, I have retrieved it! Entitled 'Welcome to Soviet Britain'!! And its subtitle - 'Figures reveal the Labour heartlands where half the population relies onthe state for a job'

In the South East - Hastings has a state workforce of 12,902 workers which is 43.7% of the workforce and the MP is Michael Foster (Lab)Hastings and Rye - not Bexhill as I said originally!

[Joe James B]

It may be - over a period - I don't know.

Actually, I think not. I may be mistaken, but I think they might sometimes use them to get a worst case scenario.

But that's not relevant, because I just think this is an outlyer, like some (but not all) of the very big lead ones a while back. There are always some inaccuracies when you home in on the regions - but a poll should balance out statistically.

[Joe James B]

My last post above was in reply to James Walton.

[Hawkeye]

I've had a quick look at what they published and the report struck me as meaningless

http://www.comres.co.uk/page190624540.aspx

I don't see where any sensible figures come from.

[Andrew S]

It must be a 'rogue', with all the other polls showing a healthy Conservative lead and all.

[Hawkeye]

Actually, what little sense I can make of the published results seems to say the following:

1. The sample size is small - well under 1000
2. The bulk of respondents think of themselves as Labour voters

I'm sure the BBC will run with it since they managed to avoid mentioning the 15% ICM poll. It certainly does not jibe with my experience which seems to be that Labour is loathed...

[Dave J]

This has to be a rogue poll. A 10 point split from other polls conducted within a few days? Statistically, if I remember correctly, something like 2.5 of all polls, even if conducted properly, will diverge from an accurate representation of the population they sample by more than their stated margin of error.

[Alex]

Rogue Poll ...

I would be surprised if The Indy ran with this properly, unless they ran a story saying they are dumping ComRes.

ComRes are going to have egg on their face when the next two or three polls are released.

[New Poll says]

even the poll geeks are now saying this poll is no good but still we will see. Interesting article in the Times re Brown and I wonder, will he be arrested as well?

http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/11/to-assist-the-m.html

[Paul J]

Hawkeye

The BBC say that they don't run with a single poll as it isn't newsworthy enough. They seem to have been saying this ever since the Tories established a consistent lead.

Even so they did mention the ICM poll on Radio Two on Saturday. Unfortunately they didn't mention the 15% Tory lead but they did say that the poll found that Gordon Brown was more trusted than David Cameron in the economic crisis.

It bears repeating that the BBC is institutionally biased against the Conservatives and that their wings need to be clipped when we get back into power.

[rugfish]

If I was asked to take part in one of these polls I'd say I'd say I'd vote Labour despite I have no intention of ever doing so.
I also know three othersw who all say the same.

Polls are a waste of time, the Tories are coming, there's nothing anyone can do about it, we're going to win and win big, and the only thing we have to do is to watch that clock ticking on the dictator's time left.

In fact by May next year ( not that far away ), he'll be a lame duck PM and counting the days to his inevitable departure from OUR house.

Bye bye Brown !!!

[New Poll says]

I'm sure the BBC will run with it since they managed to avoid mentioning the 15% ICM poll. It certainly does not jibe with my experience which seems to be that Labour is loathed...

Posted by: Hawkeye | December 02, 2008 at 01:05

they already have ..no surprise there then

[GB£.com]

Rather than dismissing the poll, it might be more productive to think why it might be right and what caused it.

The nasty 45% tax rate on earners over 150k would clearly appeal to a lot of people, particularly at this time when high-earning bankers etc are being blamed for the country's problems.

That in itself, as the freshness of this bash-the-nasty-rich-tax fades, may make the bounce short-lived.

For me, the biggest recent worry has been Cameron's weakness in meakly sidestepping rather than boldly springing Labour's traps. It means that Labour are still setting the agenda.

It is arguable that Labour are as loathed as the Tories were in 97, but few would argue that the Tories are seen with the same hope that Labour were 11 years ago.

Why is that? Is being not-Labour enough?

[On The Job]

In the South East - Hastings has a state workforce of 12,902 workers which is 43.7% of the workforce and the MP is Michael Foster (Lab)Hastings and Rye - not Bexhill as I said originally!

Yes it is true we do patsy Hastings is a very deprived area i think the figre is actually a little higher. part of the reason we have no [rivate jobs is that Labour cancelled our by pass in 2001 having ran a campaign in Hastings based on us having a bypass.

As for Labour being ahead in the south east of England even in Hastings people are sick of them

[Dave B]

Mike Smithson's written a short piece comparing the past 12 months of ICM and ComRes polls: 'So How do We Square ComRes with ICM?'.

[Peter Buss]

The Damien Green affair might indeed be having an adverse effect on the Tories for the simple reason that the ordinary person might be thinking that the Tories reckon that they are above the Law and should be protected.Most people are not into the niceties of Parliamentary privilege etc etc but they do have a strong sense that everyone should be treated equally.

What they will not like is any sense that a Govt is cracking down on dissent and treating its opponents unfairly. So instead of guys like David Davis behaving like some out of control unguided missile, the Tory message needs to concentrate very much on an overbearing, hypocritical Brown and Govt who are determined to stamp out dissent. That the ordinary punter can understand and respond to.

I am of course appalled at what has happened to Damien Green.

[Praguetory]

There have been a lot of significant polls over the last few days. This is the only one that has been reported on sky and bbc.

[Dominic]

It is incredulous that the polls that have just been recorded could be true with Zanou Labour nearly every year making cock up after cock up.
Badger raised a good point that when they get the limited chances on BBC they have got to brush these 3rd rate Journalists aside show passion and get over to the idiots that might vote for this all controlling Government that they are not living in a democracy any more. Talking about passion I have not seen any if my best friend was stitched up like Damien Green I would show anger and passion the public never see this from any of the Conservatives apart from Clarke, Hesseltine I have not seen one of the Shadow Cabinet rip apart anybody in a interview or on “Question Time” start now Labour can not keep making mistakes for ever. An example of a young man able to rip any body apart is Fraser Nelson can any body name ten Conservative Politicians that could demolish this disgusting opposition. Please do not put up for interview Letwin, Maude, Villiers or anybody of their ilk as they just do not cut the mustard.
If the Conservatives do win and do not fluff up another wonderful opportunity which really is an open goal please go through the BBC with a fine tooth comb and remove the hundreds of biased lefties to get balanced reporting back again.

[Sally Roberts]

Can somebody tell me whether they or anyone they know has EVER been consulted by any of these polling organisations? I have never been asked - neither has anyone at all I know, even non-political family and friends! Just WHO do they ask? All I ever seem to get asked are my views on mobile phones/internet/the latest washing powder!

[rugfish]

I think there's a tendency of us psephologists to think in terms of what the entire country thinks about any given matter, when in reality most simply don't care too much about politics at all.

Example is the Lisbon Treaty which I thought people would be up in arms over.
Another, removal of the Queen's prerogative.
Even the lack of open public feeling during the By-elections seems to give me the impression that political time in Britain stands still for many people which I think mainly happens for reason that most people feel disjointed from politics and are still coming to terms with what they actually might have in the way of any possibility at all to influence government.

I noticed a report on Panorama last night showed mass protests over the governments policy to reverse bans locally on granting licenses for open cast mining.

It made me wonder why so many people could be involved in saving land and the environment yet not be that bothered about who actually controls it or whether any outside influence such as the European emissions directives have any influence over the government they are protesting to ?

Personally, I can't fathom it out but I do think that polls come and go and none of them are to be relied on too heavily.

I do however agree much with what GB£ says and I do think many people ( if not all ), would like more clear direction and statements of policy than we actually see screened.

It again makes me wonder whether the problem of apathy is the media's lack to show policy or whether it our problem as GB£ describes but clearly one poll is not really something to get worked up about whereas policy and the way that message gets over, IS ?

[RichardJ]

"Can somebody tell me whether they or anyone they know has EVER been consulted by any of these polling organisations? I have never been asked - neither has anyone at all I know, even non-political family and friends! Just WHO do they ask?"

I've been phoned by ICM and Mori and done internet polls for Yougov.

[rugfish]

I do YouGov polls frequently.

[Dave Williams]

I'm guessing that there are going to be two main risks with accurate polling because I expect that as with the Tories in 1992 there will be the embaressed Labour supporter syndrome. So some polls will underestimate Labour, because some will vote in priate but not admit in public. At the same time I expect some polls are overestimating Labour by trying to get their balances right. There will no doubt be people who don't want to admit to voting Labour before and so that may affect samples.

I doubt the Conservatives have a very big poll lead because there still hasn't been the tipping point of a black Wednesday or winter of discontent. Come the spring and things might be different!

[Peter Thurgood]

We have the un-elected Gordon Brown running for cover, as usual, when questions are being asked, and his slimy bunch have been found out in yet another scandal.

We have Jaqui Smith acting more like a Nazi Stormtrooper than a Home Secretary.

We have the unelected Mandleson (I refuse to call him sir) trying to resurrect his old chestnut, and get us signed up for the single currency, even though he knows the majority of people in this country are against it.

We have Gorbals Mick, acting as if he owns Parliament, and encouraging Labour friendly policemen to raid the opposition's offices.

We have yet more firms going bust every day.

We have more people being put of work every day.

We have the worst Health Service in the western world.

We are conned and cajoled on an almost daily basis into paying more fines and taxes by Labour and their controlled councils, for services we should be entitled to by right.

Labour tell us what we can and cannot do in our own personal lives. They have stopped people smoking in public, yet as soon as a General Election comes within sight, they decide to ease up on those restrictions. In other words, admitting they have been lying to us about this. If smoking is as bad as they say, then it is bad all the time, and should not be allowed to ease off, just when an election is on the horizon.

I could write pages about the horrors this Government have imposed on us, but I think most people know them anyway. But what I do not understand, is in the midst of all this, Labour's position in the polls improves?

I find this very hard to believe, even with the ghastly Mandleson now running our country.

[The Bishop Swine]

This is a single poll, I would not have published it. It does make you wonder who they are asking, The PLP prehaps?

Am I worried? Does this Face look worried? Worried am I, not !

[NigelJ]

Rugfish: Don't take too much notice of GB£'s comments. He claims to be a Tory voter, but I never see him making any serious attacks on the govt, only our own side. Anyone who thinks we should be releaving all our policies when we are maybe 18months away from a GE really doen't understand strategy. Either this or they just want to stir up trouble because they want to pretend to be on our side when in fact they most definately are not. GB£ tells us we should vote UKIP at the Euros, though this would cause delight form Gordon, as he would be able to say that we hadn't performed. It is imperitive that all Tories get out and vote TORY at the Euros and give Labour a good kicking.As for this poll it is concerning, but as other posters have mentioned it looks highly dubious

[Wearside Tory]

This poll is a "bad un" but we can't bury our heads in the sand and say we are comfortably 10% in the lead...

I think the electorate is extremely volatile at the moment and there could be huge regional swings.

I think we are going backwards in the North East/North because Labour are running hard that we are going to cut the Public Sector and pull the rug on final salary pensions...both huge issues up here..

[NigelJ]

Sorry for typo, that should say "revealing"

[David_at_Home]

It seems logical that Labour and Conservative Parties should have very similar support from the voters since they have near identical policies on everything that matters:

The Economy: Actually not quite the same because the Tories don't have a policy at all but both parties seem to favour reflating the economy with yet more consumer spending using borrowed money and are equally oblivious the fact that it was this which caused the crash in the first place. Neither party seems to understand the requirements of productive industry nor even care if we have any in the UK.

Energy: Both parties favour wind turbines which produce expensive intermittent energy and will thus drive what remains of our industry form our shores for ever.

Defence: Neither party has any plans properly to re-equip our armed services and both favour continuing the war in Afghanistan without any definable achievable objectives.

The EU: Assuming the Lisbon treaty is finally agreed before the general election, neither party is going to negotiate a revised relationship with the EU and both with go along with the plan for an Ever Closer Union (the United States of Europe).

Immigration: The policy of the Labour Party has favoured what are effectively open borders, not only with the 400 million people of the Continental EU but also with the rest of the world. The Tory Party has no published policies to restrict this.

Education: Neither party supports selective education and both favour a top heavy system with far too many wasting their formative years (and getting horribly into debt) studying pseudo subjects “supervised” by bogus professors.

Marriage and the family: Both parties seem to favour a “sex education” which gives a message to youngsters in their early teens that they are weirdos if they are still virgins. Both parties favour keeping parents ignorant of the children’s consumption of contraceptive drugs. Both parties dismantled the tax allowances which favoured marriage, both parties conspired to remove the widows’ pension and both parties supported that grotesque parody of marriage known as Civil Partnerships.

[The Bishop Swine]

“It is imperative that all Tories get out and vote TORY at the Euros and give Labour a good kicking. As for this poll it is concerning, but as other posters have mentioned it looks highly dubious”

As it is William Hague has reiterated our opposition to joining the Euro, just in case there was any doubt. Don’t be fooled by the UKIP ninnies, they will always be a marginal party for marginalized malcontents.

[GB£.com]

LoL NigelJ,
Who was it who praised CCHQ for their excellent national debt calculator but suggested it would be much more potent if it provided a debt-per-person amount, only for CCHQ to introduce exactly that widget last weekend?

Just asking.

[David_at_Home]

It seems logical that Labour and Conservative Parties should have very similar support from the voters since they have near identical policies on everything that matters:

The Economy: Actually not quite the same because the Tories don't have a policy at all but both parties seem to favour reflating the economy with yet more consumer spending using borrowed money and are equally oblivious the fact that it was this which caused the crash in the first place. Neither party seems to understand the requirements of productive industry nor even care if we have any in the UK.

Energy: Both parties favour wind turbines which produce expensive intermittent energy and will thus drive what remains of our industry form our shores for ever.

Defence: Neither party has any plans properly to re-equip our armed services and both favour continuing the war in Afghanistan without any definable achievable objectives to bring this conflict to an end.

The EU: Assuming the Lisbon Treaty is finally agreed before the general election, neither party is going to negotiate a revised relationship with the EU and both with go along with the plan for an Ever Closer Union (the United States of Europe).

Immigration: The policy of the Labour Party has favoured what are effectively open borders, not only with the 400 million people of the Continental EU but also with the rest of the world. The Tory Party has no published policies to restrict this.

Education: Neither party supports selective education and both favour a top heavy system with far too many wasting their formative years (and getting horribly into debt) studying pseudo subjects “supervised” by bogus professors.

Marriage and the family: Both parties seem to favour a “sex education” which gives a message to youngsters in their early teens that they are weirdos if they are still virgins. Both parties favour keeping parents ignorant of the children’s consumption of contraceptive drugs. Both parties dismantled the tax allowances which favoured marriage, both parties conspired to remove the widows’ pension and both parties favoured the introduction of civil partnerships, thus further devaluing the unique status of marriage.

[liz kemp]

I am afraid that if the conservative response to the "Green" affair is weak this poll will consolidate.
Liz Kemp

[The Bishops wife]

"Can somebody tell me whether they or anyone they know has EVER been consulted by any of these polling organisations? I have never been asked - neither has anyone at all I know, even non-political family and friends! Just WHO do they ask?"

I get phoned about twice a week, by various polling companies, and I also get phoned by the Labour party. I think this is because I joined one of those survey panels a few years ago.

[GB£.com]

Why are the Tories not banging on about the collapse in the pound yesterday following Mandy's sly comments against the pound to Barroso?

Clearly such talk of abandoning the national currency from a senior Government minister had a devastating impact on the currency, and demands an inquiry?

[rugfish]

Posted by: The Bishops wife | December 02, 2008 at 11:14

Excuse me for asking TBW but if the Labour Party calls you, is this not the same issue which The Electoral Commission jumped on the LibDems about ???

If so, it means Labour are in breech of electoral rules doesn't it ?

( Hello top Tory ranks are you looking at this ) ?

[rugfish]

Again GB£ I agree with that.

Plainly Mandelson should not talk down our currency, has no seat or place to do it as he's not elected or even in position to say it.

George Osborne 'should' be wringing Mandelson's and Darling's necks on this and asking "Who's in charge" I would have thought and what Brown is doing about Mandelson's loose tongue which places are whole economy in further unnecessary danger ?

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Peter Buss, I think you're right about the Damian Green issue and I posted similar warnings on another thread.

We need to be careful not to come across as demanding one rule for MPs and another rule for the public. Our line of attack should concentrate on:

- Government doesn't like criticism

- Reopening the wounds of the "Illegals at the Home Office" scandal and pouring some salt on there.

- Gordon Brown and Jacqboots Smith not telling the truth.

- Politicisation of the police and civil service.

We're still concentrting too much in the media on the intricacies of Parliamentary privilege and the role of the Speaker, rather than keeping it simple.

We need to RELATE THIS ISSUE TO HOW IT AFFECTS ORDINARY PEOPLE.

The poll is still a rogue though.

[rugfish]

hang on, hang on, I think someone might have been a bit quick off the mark with these "ridiculous poll figures" !!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1090707/Fears-tax-rises-election-Darling-says-20bn-spending-spree-enough.html

"Opinion poll evidence suggests voters already believe his package is a failure. An Ipsos MORI poll for the Observer showed Labour support dropping five points to 32 per cent, ending the 'Brown bounce'.
Support for the Tories has risen by three points to 43 per cent, giving them an 11 point lead."

This poll was taken BEFORE people could consider the 'harassment' of an MP and 'invasion' of our constitutional palaces by the Labour Left Lieutwaffen !!

[Dave]

I'm suprised that people are suprised at this poll.

Its the first one since Dave told everybody that he wants to dismantle public sector workers' pensions.

There are now 4.5 million people who can't afford to vote Tory.

[Dave]

Those numbers are out of date, Rugfish.

The PBR response is irrelevant compared to Dave's promise to ruin 4.5 million public sector workers.

Say what you want about Brown, but at least he wasn't thick enough to tell people he was going to destroy their pensions before an election.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

No, Dave. He just destroyed everyone's pensions and covered it up as being "vital for the economy"

[Sally Roberts]

"Marriage and the family: Both parties seem to favour a “sex education” which gives a message to youngsters in their early teens that they are weirdos if they are still virgins. Both parties favour keeping parents ignorant of the children’s consumption of contraceptive drugs. Both parties dismantled the tax allowances which favoured marriage, both parties conspired to remove the widows’ pension and both parties supported that grotesque parody of marriage known as Civil Partnerships. "

David_at_Home that isn't quite right. To be fair to Labour (and I am not often so), I don't think even they suggest that anyone who remains a virgin after their early teens is a "weirdo"! It is a difficult area to be sure! Young people are under a lot of pressure from the media to be "cool"and just like their friends - and of course they think that all their friends are sexually active so it is a vicious circle as they fear they will be bullied if they prefer not to go there.
As for tax advantages for married people - the Conservatives would like to reinstate it.
As far as your final comment is concerned, David, I am afraid it isn't worthy of you!

[rugfish]

You can't honestly believe the public services is full of anything other than Labour's own supporters though can you ?

DC may well be speaking bluntly about it but I doubt that policy would have a mass outcry from anyone other than disinfected Labourites who know their goose has been cooked anyway.

Also, I didn't see mass revolt at the last election when Brown had already robbed private pensioners of their proceeds and there's a lot of water under the bridge since then surely which is enough to carry him and his party off at the next one ?

Remember also that Brown 'still' has to make cuts in public spending unless he wants to create a more visibly divided society of have's and have not's and if the private sector are the only one's suffering then my guess is it will lead to a few more problems than he might think.

[JS]

Whether this is a rogue poll or not Cameron and his team should heed the lesson and actually start being an effective opposition for once. There has never been a Government so inept, so incompetent, so arrogant and which has given so much excellent ammunition to its enemies than the present one. Alas there have been few oppositions who have made less use of that ammunition than the present one. With this Government's record of lurching from one major cock-up to another any worthwhile Opposition should be 25 points ahead in all the polls - rogue and otherwise. Get out there and fight !

[David_at_Home]

[email protected],

How nice of you to take the trouble to respond, even if we (as usual!) disagree.

Here are some indisputable facts:

Promiscuity, STDs and pregnancies have been on the increase for a generation or so amongst unmarried teenagers. This has coincided with ever more intensive and graphic “sex education” in schools. Of course, correlation does not prove causality and there a number of influences at work here but common sense would indicate that, at best, the sex education delivered has been infective and is probably a contributor to the problem.

John Major's government limited the married couples’s personal allowance to the basic rate only and Tony Blair’s government killed it off altogether. Similarly, John Major's government restricted the circumstances for the payment of widows’ pension and Tony Blair's government killed it of (except as a substitute for the OAP) without a peep of protest from the Tories. In fact, I think only one MP protested, the Labour MP Stuart Bell.

If there are Conservative plans to reinstate either or both of these then I will be delighted but all I have seen are vague mutterings driven, no doubt, by the excellent work of IDS (one of the few senior Tories I do like).

Finally marriage in our western has been seen, at least since the writings of Homer, as an exclusive relationships between man and woman. To extend a similar recognition too other relationships sets us off down a slippery slope which will end with all relationships (bigamy, threesomes for bisexuals and others which are inappropriate to describe on a well run family blog) being seen as equal to marriage.

I have no objection whatsoever to anyone nominating anyone else, (sibling, friend, parent, child, lover etc) as Next of Kin and for the law to recognise this but please do not let us confuse other close relationships (which may, in themselves, be highly desirable) with marriage.

Since you did not dispute my other comments may I assume that you agree that the Labour and Conservative policies on the economy, energy, defence and the EU are virtually identical?

[Sally Roberts]

Hello David and thanks for your well-thought-out reply (even if as usual I disagree with most of it!)

As far as the Conservatives'future plans are concerned - watch this space and I am sure you will be pleasantly surprised.

As far as your point about marriage/civil partnerships is concerned, I belong to a Liberal Jewish Synagogue where many members are lesbian or gay. A number of them have celebrated a Civil Partnership and have been able to have a service in synagogue which is, in effect, a marriage. Now you may have your own views that marriage is only between a man and a woman and this is indeed the Christian view. Christians also believe that marriage is "for the procreation of children". So does that mean that a couple may not marry if one/both of them is beyond the age of being to have children? If one/both of them is infertile? I think we need to avoid being so narrow when we look at this matter.
As far as I am concerned, marriage should be between a couple who love each other and who want to make a public declaration of that love and commitment.

[Andrew Jackson]

"If I was asked to take part in one of these polls I'd say I'd say I'd vote Labour despite I have no intention of ever doing so."

I have only ever taken part in one poll, and I said Labour. But that was at the time IDS was in charge as I wanted a change of leadership.

[resident leftie]

Posted by: Dave | December 02, 2008 at 12:11

Those numbers are out of date, Rugfish.

The PBR response is irrelevant compared to Dave's promise to ruin 4.5 million public sector workers.

Say what you want about Brown, but at least he wasn't thick enough to tell people he was going to destroy their pensions before an election.

I hadn't considered this possibility. I still think the poll is wrong, but just so that you are aware, Cameron has threatened the pensions of the police, armed forces, nurses, doctors, fire fighters and teachers.

From the Telegraph:

"It's five million employees in all. That includes 1.3m health workers with the NHS, 1.6m in local government, 600,000 teachers, 600,000 civil servants, 200,000 in the armed forces, 150,000 police officers and 50,000 firemen."

[meli]

I would agree with you David in regards to sex education. I doubt few here will dispute that kids now are taught far more then we were at a young age. But gone are the days when teenage pregnancy isn't a cool thing. It is not a sex education problem, but there is a breakdown somewhere. Where I do not know. I think it comes from society itself and government influence is really not the answer, what is, again I haven't a clue!
For your other points, it may appear at least on the surface that you are correct in the similarities between the parties and thus lies the problem I think. The council I moved from in England was in fact a Conservative council. It was one of the first to implement rubbish collection fortnightly, it has been keen to implement every health and safety law possible. Even going so far as closing the gates to the cemetary in town and locking them up tight. People there are spied on for dog fouling and over filling their bins using the anti terror laws etc etc. 10 years of living under this sort of system is no doubt why I took so long to even consider the Conservative party. For many, their every day lives are the first thing they look to when considering who to vote for, and economy aside, when you are not happy in your town or community you will probably blame your local government first.
However, I have hope in the Conservative party, and would like to see more on their website about what they will do about these things that affect our every day lives. And currently are affecting MP's themselves (re the Damien Green situation) I hope this is a wakeup call and a chance for us to come together in this country and get some focus, put things in prospective and bring back sanity in government.
Sorry for another long post! But these are the things that I believe are stopping the Conservative party in the opinion polls though again I don't believe this particular one as it is a bit silly in fact. :P

[rugfish]

Posted by: resident leftie | December 02, 2008 at 13:24.

RL, I wonder whether the temporary, contract workers, part-time and tens of thousands of flexi- agency workers and all the non-pensionable so nothing to lose contracts have been considered in those figures ?

Just a thought ?

Although, I think if DC is really making statements about pension policy here then it is imperative that he is completely open and totally specific as all he will accomplish by it is to leave people wondering and that's not half as good as not telling them until you're in office and then robbing people blind like Brown did I guess if you have a gullible electorate voting for you like the last one ?

[David_at_Home]

[email protected],

I’m not sure what "Christians" think because I was brought up as CofE which is not necessarily the same as being Christian!

Anyway the 1662 Book of Common Prayer sets out the CofE view on marriage and the "procreation of children" is only one of several reasons for marriage given therein.

Marriage as an institution clearly predates Christianity and is more widespread than Christianity as you, as a Jew (I assume), must know well.

But, Sally, you are silent on my other points. What, if anything, distinguishes the policies of the Tory leadership on the economy, the EU, defence and energy from those of the present government?

I believe the answer is virtually nothing which as why I long ago ceased to be a Tory voter and am unlikely to return the fold for the foreseeable future.

[Sally Roberts]

"But, Sally, you are silent on my other points."

David gimme a break - my little fingers have been going nineteen to the dozen these last few days so forgive me if I pick out a couple of salient points rather than fisk the entire post! ;-)

Ah, Marriage! Yes certainly it is an institution that goes far back into the mists of time and that is why, to be honest, I often find my views on the subject are rather ambivalent. Would it were as I would like it to be - simply a public statement of commitment between two people (of whatever gender) who love each other! Sadly marriage can be many other things - a means of control of women, the children they may have and the land and property brought into the family unit through the union; a means of perpetuating a dynasty; a way of uniting two families/dynasties/countries - the list of reasons for marriage over the centuries is endless!

[resident leftie]

Posted by: rugfish | December 02, 2008 at 13:53

Although, I think if DC is really making statements about pension policy here then it is imperative that he is completely open and totally specific as all he will accomplish by it is to leave people wondering and that's not half as good as not telling them until you're in office...

I agree. Of the three options - saying what you will do, saying nothing, and speculating about something which will affect millions of people without being specific - the third is the worst politically.

[Dave]

Rugfish and Cleethorpes Rock.

You're right that Brown quietly destroyed a lot of people's pensions and then covered it up as economic neccessity.

But now we have Dave not only following suit but also trumpeting the fact that he wants to do so.

It's madness.

Poll numbers don't bother me because they are so volatile, but this constant stream of unforced errors does. I think that things have been so good for so long that team Cameron has gotten sloppy.

Let's hope we have a few more polls like this one to slap some sense back into them before the election.

[Old Hack]

Ed

May I suggest that you exclude the ComRes poll from your poll of polls. It is quite clearly a rogue and in view of other polls in close proximity (ICM & MORI) pointing in an entirely different direction it does not merit inclusion.

[David_at_Home]

Sally,

"marriage can be many other things"

"a means of control of women" and of men too. It should encourage them to keep their minds focussed on their responsibilities to their wives, children and wider families.

"a means of control of ... the children they may have" surely this is for the good since children need a secure and well controlled environment in which to grow up.

"a means of ..... property brought into the family unit through the union" I seem to have missed out on this but, in general, private properly is essential for continuing investment and economic progress, is it not?

"a means of perpetuating a dynasty" I support the Monarchy and would hate to live in a republic.

"a way of uniting two families/dynasties/countries" Quite. I first met Mrs_at_Home more than 30 years ago when the ship in which I was serving paid a goodwill visit to her home town.

So, all in all, there seem to be a lot of plus points for marriage even if, sadly, it cannot be for everyone.

Now, Sally, you have a moral obligation to get your "little fingers" moving to address the other points of similarity I raised between the policies of the Government and Her Majesty's Opposition. If you fail to do so, I shall claim victory be default!

[resident leftie]

Posted by: resident leftie | December 02, 2008 at 13:24.

RL, I wonder whether the temporary, contract workers, part-time and tens of thousands of flexi- agency workers and all the non-pensionable so nothing to lose contracts have been considered in those figures ?

Just a thought ?

It was from the Telegraph and included only those entitled to a public sector pension.

[Sally Roberts]

"Now, Sally, you have a moral obligation to get your "little fingers" moving to address the other points of similarity I raised between the policies of the Government and Her Majesty's Opposition."

David, many of us do this on a regular basis on a wide variety of subjects on Con Home and Centre Right! All you need to do is keep reading and keep posting!

As for your various points concerning marriage - all I will say is that I am delighted that the union betwixt you and Mrs_at_Home is such a happy one that it has flourished for over thirty years! I wish you both many more happy years together.

[David_at_Home]

Sally,

The Tory Party is lucky to have such a loyal and dedicated supporter. If they were all like you I’m sure the next election would be a pushover.

I will keep reading your messages and, probably, disagreeing with many but I cannot keep bullying you any longer in the face of such good natured charm!

So, just now, I will go in search someone more deserving of my ire. Now where, I wonder, are Dr Tannock or Mr Hinchcliffe?

[rugfish]

Leftie and Dave,

Thanks leftie, that's not what I suspected quite frankly as I don't see they've made any point of saying how many are NOT receiving public pensions and why ?

It goes without saying that many in health, education and social services, let along local government are in fact not qualified to actually receive a pension because strictly speaking they fall into a different category of employee. ( or, if they do then the pension is quite likely insignicant ) ?? ( I'm guessing ), however before making policy statements on it I'd expect David Cameron to actually have ALL that information, tell us who and how many it would apply to, and whether a change would only apply to NEW entrants so as to avoid existing employee's 'panicking'.

Dave,

I'm not sure that any political gain can be made out of this at all, even if being up front about it unless applied only to new entrants or showing the numbers of people affected by any change are small. ( But if that's the case then it's like 'so what' a paltry saving ) ?

Yet, if he says nothing and then makes a change later he'll be doing exactly the same thing Brown did and people will forever resent it.

What does he do ?