Labour pour cold water on early election speculation

I was sat in Portcullis House yesterday afternoon for about two hours (Portcullis House being part of the Palace of Westminster and the place for journalists, researchers and parliamentarians to mingle).  The only topic of conversation was the possibility of an election early in the new year.  Every person had a different theory...

...Brown needs to call an election before anxiety turns to pain and pain to anger was the wisest thought...

...he won't bottle an early election this time because Peter Mandelson is providing steel to the PM's dither...

...he has to go soon because Darling has said the recession will be over by the autumn but it won't be...

...he is finally enjoying being PM for the first time and he won't risk losing twelve months as the man to navigate Britain through these difficult times - he has great faith in his ability to be seen by history as the great economic leader of the first recession of the 21st century...

...he'll wait until 2010 because he thinks voters will eventually see through Cameron as inauthentic.

The Daily Telegraph pours some cold water on the idea of an early election by quoting one "senior Labour strategist" as saying "voters would be disgusted if we called an election at a time when they are worried about their homes and their jobs."

One thing is certain: Brown can't afford to let election speculation get out of control again and face charges of bottling another election.  Labour was quick to use Benedict Brogan to rubbish Iain Dale's "Exclusive" that it had bought advertising space for January.  If there is to be an early election Labour needs for it to be a surprise.

Tim Montgomerie

Noon: Graeme Archer thinks the 'early speculators' are wrong

Comments

[Old Hack]

My instinct is that an early election cannot be ruled out.

That said there are lot of very practical reasons to delay, not least of which is the state of the Labour Party.

Brown may however use the Christmas period to relax and reflect?

[Sally Roberts]

My prediction is that yes, there will be an early Election - March, not February, but yes the voters WILL be disgusted with Labour for being opportunistic at a time when they are worried about their jobs and homes, and will punish them accordingly. Look forward to David Cameron being Prime Minister by late Spring!

[Malcolm Dunn]

To paraphrase Masndy Rice-Davies 'well they would say that ,wouldn't they'!
If I was Brown I would go early as I don't think things will get better any time soon,but I doubt he will.

[WW]

I am backing an election in March 2009. Gordon is between a rock & a hard place as the economy is going to get worse before it gets better. With Mandelson shoring him up, I think he will call an election sooner than later.

WW

[GB£.com]

Economic data will surely be the key.

Any signs of the green shoots of recovery will encourage Labour to wait until 2010, but if early data in Jan suggests a deepening of our woes, then an early election will be Labour's only chance.

It could quite easily be spun to be 'essential' to avoid the 'Labour recovery plan' being 'disrupted' by a forced election in 2010.

[Norm Brainer]

Everyone knows he'd be stupid not to call an early election as he would have zero chance in 2010.

So expect a 2010 election.

[JohnfromCamberley]

Today, in among my post, was a card from the Labour party, telling me who their constituency candidate is, together with a picture of the unfortunate chap beside Gordon Brown. I haven't previously seen a thing from Labour around here for years.

Make of it what you will. Whether there really will be an election early next year, or not, there does seem to be more than a shade of activity going on.

[Stewart Geddes]

How about 2nd April. First Thursday after the clocks change and the week before Easter....

[Angelo Basu]

Who gave the first quote? I never knew Yoda was sitting as an MP.

[The Bishop Swine]

I think an early election has to be a strong possibility. Its very difficult at this moment in time to judge how deep this recession is going to be, but most of the indicators suggest that it will be very deep and prolonged. If that is the case Brown and Darling will have to go to the people before the discomfort becomes a depression. I suspect that they have calculated that their economic stimulus package will cause a slowing of the start of this downturn, and so they will be able to point to a seemingly improving situation by March of next year. Of course it will be a confidence trick. They will also be keeping a very close eye on the polls, which have certainly tightened recently. If Labour remain neck and neck with us come March or within a few points, I think they will go then, and direct a very strong negative campaign around Tory cuts. Labour has succeeded in increasing the numbers of people directly dependant on their continued presence in power, this group will of course be very easy to scare, most especially those who are already feeling the pinch.I suspect almost all of the dependant group, will vote Labour. Labour will do their best to force the power companies to drop their prices and make out it’s a big victory for Gordon. I believe that April or May are very strong possibilities, and its hard to see how waiting any longer is going to improve their prospects. I think that despite everything this will be a tight election, mostly because of the high dependency culture that Labour has encouraged.

[The Bishop Swine]

"Today, in among my post, was a card from the Labour party, telling me who their constituency candidate is, together with a picture of the unfortunate chap beside Gordon Brown. I haven't previously seen a thing from Labour around here for years."

I was invited to a constituency surgery today, this is also the very first time this has ever happened, despite me being a constant political commentator for our local papers letters page. It appears that all of the stops are being pulled out, in an attempt to curry local support.

[Man in a Shed]

If Brown has any sense he will go and go early - before the evidence of his economic crimes becomes un-spinable, even by Mandelson and Campbell.

[Monetarist]

There are a few barriers to an early election -

1. Labour's massive debts.
2. Large job losses in the retail sector after the January sales.
3. A large drop in house prices in early 2009.
4. Brown's ego - he will not want to risk losing an election after less than 2 years as PM.

Only the first can be dealt with if Brown

a) sells out all his policies to the trade unions or

b) introduces state funding of political parties and wipes`out a large chunk of Labour's debts with taxpayers' money.

Number 4 is prbably the biggest issue unless Brown somehow manages to conjur up a poll lead.

The next few months will be the crucial test of Cameron's leadership and Osborne's economic commentary and policies.

They will be under the closest scrutiny from the media and the public, especially those hit hard by the economic downturn.

It is time to abandon the original Cameroon "modernisation" plan. It is out of date.

We now need a credible alternative economic policy based on cutting spending, government and private debt and taxes (especially for the prudent and savers).

Cameron also needs to demonstrate how he will deal with the housing crisis, especially those under threat of repossession.

Cameron needs his equivalent of Sir Alan Walters. It is time to call Professor Patrick Minford or persuade Prof Tim Congdon to abandon UKIP.

[cardewman]

From deepest Wales - a General Election could be in June to coincide with the European election because otherwise Labour might have difficulty turning out their Welsh supporters and so lose a Welsh MEP.
That could also be true of England but I think there are Council elections in England on that day.
Two elections close together would be unpopular with both activists and electors.

[m wood]

A headline in The Times today makes me suspicious - "Tories are jittery but it’s too late for Gordon Brown to go to the polls early". Labour spinners always use The Times as one of their outlets.

[Norm Brainer]

a General Election could be in June to coincide with the European election

I've been thinking they could run them together for a while, but I'm starting to think that it would be too late by then in that they are going to have to go early before the brown stuff really hits the fan - or believe their own lies and expect an improving economy by 2010 so go then.

Although perhaps Brown wants to go when the economy is at it's weakest as that's when he gets votes as attention is distracted from his inability to do anything but magic tricks with money.

[Ian Bennett]

TROLL BANNED.

[DanPat]

There are probably three dates we would see a G.E.

The first is ASAP, early February. Get it out of the way and show that they are serious about getting the UK through this. That is the only way to sell an election at that point, "we are holding it because we believe that Labour has the answers to Britains problems and that the Tories are a do nothing party. Blah blah blah, usual Labour line". Of course if it was a hung Parliament Labour could quickly elect a new leader, sit back and do their best to pull Cameron apart, causing as much chaos as possible - blocking budgets, economic legislations etc etc. That could do DC a hell of a lot of damage and put a Labour leader in with a shout next time round.

Second - I would have to agree with cardewman, with the June elections, providing he can keep the good polls up and appear to be leading from the front, it would make sense. Not only would activists not like an extra election to fight in the same year but also, can the Labour party financially afford to do so? I'm not sure that they are in a position to actually pay for it. Unless they are able to strike a deal with the Tories over Unions some time soon it could put the party under.

3 - 2010... Mike Smithson reckons Brown has become a gambler and would risk 2009, but I don't know. The idea of risking another 12-15 months in office on a throw of the dice... It would be a huge risk.

[David Belchamber]

The economic situation is very unlikely to improve much between now and next March, so if Brown calls an election any time between February and June, there is a possibility that he will lose or a stronger probability that it will be a hung parliament.

[Steve Tierney]

My money is on June with the Euro-elections. I think we'll see several months of continued co-ordinated overspending and flash "initiatives" that further indebt the country with a view to making it "appear" that the recession is on the run.

In this way, if Gordon gets back in he'll have lots of spin to do to explain economic armageddon, which he'll enjoy. If he doesn't get in he'll leave the Conservatives saddled with the impossible mess.

This is win-win for Gordon. It'll look like things were "getting better" while he was in charge but then go horribly wrong when Cameron takes control. The fact that it was all a time-bomb he left will go over the heads of far too many people.

A very smart, very disciplined plan is going to need to be enacted to fix all this. Its a nasty situation and winning the next election, while we are all hunger for it, is going to be something of a poison chalice. But the alternative, Labour getting another term to destroy the country from the heart, is unthinkable.

[Rupert Matthews]

I am not sure that the logistics are in place for three elections on the same day (County, Euro and General). I may be wrong, but I think it would take a few weeks for returning officers to put things in place from a purely technical point of view. And if Gordon wants a snap election he is not going to tell the returning officers in late April "Oh, could you make sure you are OK for a General on 4th June".

I'm still divided between February 2009 and June 2010. One or the other, not sure which.

[m dowding]

The success of the Mandy/Campbell early nineties era was based on an unpopular Tory administration and was an easy environment for their spin and lies. With two desperate and disparate wars, an economic meltdown and disaster still to unfold, a very bad EU image, corruption, incompetence and a history of failure from data loss to crime and education, they have one last bit of spin to use. The calling and timing of an election. Mandy and the coterie are using this little dagger to test opinion and Opposition reaction for any signs of weakness. They have a scary grip on The BBC and most if not all MSM. However this election will mirror the American one and will be fought as much through the internet as the MSM.
Thus a younger and technically more savvy part of the electorate will hold a big card in the poker game that all elections are. They will be aided and abetted by The ConHomers, Guidos, Dales et al. Fear of this influential media has been already expressed by Draper's rebuttal exercise. More hilarious than effective and even more likely to alienate voters when endeavouring to seek truth over spin.
So, watch the blogs and the polls. A much greater and obvious progress for Labour is needed to guarantee any chance of a narrow win. Meanwhile every week brings more disaster to whittle Labour's standing away. If an early election is called the motive will be damage limitation not genuine belief they could do well. What, also, is Brown scared of to deny Civil Service meetings with The Opposition? 2
009, not impossible but unlikely!

[Dr Why]

M Dowding @ 10:47 is certainly onto something when he suggests that the Mandygroup is "using this little dagger to test opinion and Opposition reaction for any signs of weakness". But it's more than that.

David Cameron's (correct) strategy has been to develop a comprehensive political and economic programme in time for an election, whenever called, but to keep it largely under wraps. We all know why; Labour steals the 'good' policies and rubbishes the 'bad'. Hence the smoke signals from Labour about the possibility of an early election. By convincing Tory HQ an election is imminent Labour hopes to scare them into revealing their hand early. They can then set to work dismembering DC's Big Plan in plenty of time for an election in 2010.
Just a thought.

[Bexie]

I think people are forgetting Brown's underlying cowerdice. At this stage Zanulab are going to take a trousering despite the likes of the BBC and nowadays the Telegraph relentlessly backing him.

The fact that the thin gleam is rubbing off his "saviour of the world line" as the pound slides downwards and the finance ministers of other countries lay into his reckless policies mean that people are seeing him for what he is, an incompetant weasle who has squandered the legacy of Major.

My bet is that he will warm up for an election next year and then bottle it again when the focus groups and polls tell him what the man in the pub is telling me, that the conservatives will romp home as the core labour vote stays home or votes BNP.

[Angelo Basu]

If there is to be a 2009 GE I'd expect it early. June would be dangerous as there would be too many people who have just gone on holiday and seen that they are about 30% poorer than they were when they went on holiday last year. That would be more than enough to counteract the boost that Labour might get by diverting Conservative voters to UKIP by having the GE at the same time as the Euro-elections.

[JohnfromCamberley]

Brown's last foray into general election territory lived and died on two things.

The first was Labour's polling in their marginal constituencies. This is where we have been doing most of our work, and it's a fair guess that the national opinion polls are completely unrepresentative of what is going on in the marginals. For what it is worth, the last time I saw such a poll, we were ahead (note for emphasis - we were ahead in their marginals!). My 50p says the situation is still much the same. Any kind of decent performance by us in Labour marginals means a waterfall of seats to us.

The second, from a different perspective, was DC's and GO's request for the civil service briefings. That was what brought the cancellation of election plans out into the open last time. Now, of course, the same subject has come up and Brown is refusing permission for the briefings to happen. I know at the moment that DC has decided to play this one quite coolly. It's an interesting step. To "go loud" might precipitate a decision by Brown, probably against an election.

So, what I think is going on is this. CCO know we have a potentially winning lead in the marginals. They are happy for a bit of election fever to build up. Then they will renew loud calls to speak to the civil service and "see the books". Brown will either say no (most likely), and put the fire hoses on the electioneering, and we will be back to the "Bottler Brown" theme and a 20% lead. Or (less likely), Brown, fearing the "Bottler" effect (and its impact on his job security as Labour leader), will call an election which we will have a decent chance of winning.

[james cullis]

t6im in terms of selections and the Aliwst are w2e ready|?

[m wood]

I think that the comparison between Brown and Ponzi is appropriate. It's being used by several writers -lets make it stick!

[comstock]

Well things have improved for Labour a bit, if not a lot.Current polls are pointing to a Spring election and a hung parliament.

Where we go from there is anyones guess

Would (could?) Cameron work with the LibDems, or would he prefer to stay in opposition and hope for a better chance next time?

[Sue Doughy]

They say they will not call an election next year? That's it then, there will be an election next year.

[Adrian]

A February election , with the cold weather and dark nights might put alot of people off going out to vote. Who would this effect the most? Elderly, jobless, middle class, men, women. and thus which party could 'benefit' most. Secondly, if a hung parliament resulted, I guess much would depend on the numbers. How many are the largest party short? Can't really see many wanting to work with labour except possibly the DUP

[comstock]

"Can't really see many wanting to work with labour "

Hmmm, maybe, but then again how much have the Conservatives and the LibDems got in common? Or the Conservatives and Plaid/SNP?

Like you say, will depend how many the largest party are short (and who the largest party are)

All pure speculation, if fun......

[Goldie]

Here we go again.
Last time I said that Brown should call an election, because he would win it. I still think he would have, despite the strong Tory fight-back at the time (particularly Osborne's performance at the Conference).

Thus Brown blew it.

On the whole, the economic crisis has been beneficial for established center-left parties. Take Holland, for instance, where the Labour was very much the junior partner in the government and their poll ratings in a bad funk. Now, Labour and the Christian Democrats are almost even and the Labour minister of Finance is the hero of the hour. Clearly, if perhaps bizarrely, Labour has similarly been the net beneficiary in the polls of this crisis. This is due in large part because voters are looking for reassurance and the Tories, particularly Osborne, don't quite look ready for it.

On the other hand, how long can the fairy tale last? Eventually, voters will start blaming the government for the economic woes.

On balance, I would therefore think, again, that an early Election -- let's say in March-- is beneficial to Brown. I'm just not sure how Brown is possibly going to win an election if he goes down to the wire. Then again, I think Brown is very risk-averse and therefore would rather hang on as long as possible. As a result, I expect no early election.

[Goldie]

Here we go again.
Last time I said that Brown should call an election, because he would win it. I still think he would have, despite the strong Tory fight-back at the time (particularly Osborne's performance at the Conference).

Thus Brown blew it.

On the whole, the economic crisis has been beneficial for established center-left parties. Take Holland, for instance, where the Labour was very much the junior partner in the government and their poll ratings in a bad funk. Now, Labour and the Christian Democrats are almost even and the Labour minister of Finance is the hero of the hour. Clearly, if perhaps bizarrely, Labour has similarly been the net beneficiary in the polls of this crisis. This is due in large part because voters are looking for reassurance and the Tories, particularly Osborne, don't quite look ready for it.

On the other hand, how long can the fairy tale last? Eventually, voters will start blaming the government for the economic woes.

On balance, I would therefore think, again, that an early Election -- let's say in March-- is beneficial to Brown. I'm just not sure how Brown is possibly going to win an election if he goes down to the wire. Then again, I think Brown is very risk-averse and therefore would rather hang on as long as possible. As a result, I expect no early election.

[B.Garvie]

The race for the next General Election has just started with some left wing media hacks reporting the Tories are nervous. Personally, I have never read such rubbish. As a grass roots supporter, we cannot wait to get stuck into this dysfunctional bunch that calls themselves 'a Government'.

Brown is suffering from narcissism and believes his own publicity. The man who saved the World is invincible.

Frankly it must be embarrassing for those that work closely with him. He must go soon otherwise his 'bail out' plan will be seen to unravel. Everyone knows his pre-budget report is the longest suicide not of any PM in history.

[Charlie]

Interesting quotes, to the possible election dates, don't worry he's going
whether it's next year or 2010 just wait and see.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I came on to this thread to say - If Labour says NO, then it is Yes! I didn't think that nearly 100% of comments already came to the same conclusion!!!!

Steve Tierney @ 10.34 - I think you are spot on! As it seems that Brown is a vindictive man - when it comes to Cameron, your second and third paragraph are particularly applicable!

Dr. Why @ 11.04 - again I think all you have said is absolutely correct. In fact, they pinched something else of the Tories only the last few days, I can't remember offhand what it was, I just remember thinking - 'Hang on a minute DC announced that a month or two ago.' So yes, of course Labour get annoyed and tease because the Conservatives more or less refuse to hand them likely looking policies on a plate! That is always the way with bullies!

[Patsy Sergeant]

I agree with just about everyone else!!

Steve Tierney @ 10.34 - I agree with you about Gordon Brown and spin, I think it is the fuel that keeps him going. And yes if he doesn't get in again, and Cameron has to cope with a mess, Brown will calculate and hope that, with the spin Labour will put out AFTER losing an election, many people will believe the spin and think the mess is the Tories fault!

[Mondeo Man]

My Dad always used to say "Turkeys don't vote for Christmas". Apart from being a bit Forest Gumpish, I think this is actually quite an apt saying right now.

Firstly, his Brownness does rather resemble a Turkey - let's hope Christmas sees him gobbled up and turned into .....

Secondly, and more importantly, he is human (just). If he loses an election (even gets a hung parliament), he'll be thrown out. Even if Nostradamus himself was predicting a Labour wipeout in 2010, Brown woudn't call an election if he didn't think he could win.

Right now I don't think he has much of a chance of winning - and I think Brown knows this. Even on an optimistic reading, he is a minimum of 4pts behind in the polls. Given the strength of the SNP, and the Tory marginals capaigning, this sounds like hung parliament territory to me = the end of Brown (that does have a pleasant ring to it doesn't it!).

So for what it's worth this is my own prediction:
1) End of Jan, Brown looks at the polls, and if they are level or ahead pronounces: "The opportunistic cries of the Conservative Party are damaging the economy and damaging Britain blah blah blah election"
2) If he is behind, then he'll cling on like the parasitic fungus that he is, until power is dragged from his cold dead fingers by the electorate. Hopefully by a thumping Conservative majority.

[Mondeo Man]

Hey just seen the comparison the Brown Labour and a Ponzi scheme. Genious if it can be communicated easily enough, and we can get the Media talking about it.

[Sally Roberts]

"The race for the next General Election has just started with some left wing media hacks reporting the Tories are nervous."

Nervous? Just let me at 'em!! Personally I can't wait!

[Steve Foley]

If Brown does go to the Country, and I don't think he will, then it would be in May, the same day as the Local Elections and hoping to capitalise in the differential turnout effect to regain control of some Local Councils.

I remember this in 1979, Tory Gains in Parliamentary Constituencies in some towns yet loss of control or even Labour Gain of the same Councils.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Not a great poll for us from the latest ICM. Our lead is down to 5 points from a pollster who has been showing bigger leads for the Conservatives than others. Perhaps if we get another few polls like this Brown may be tempted. I still think he'll not risk it.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Not a great poll for us from the latest ICM. Our lead is down to 5 points from a pollster who has been showing bigger leads for the Conservatives than others. Perhaps if we get another few polls like this Brown may be tempted. I still think he'll not risk it.

[comstock]

If brown waits any longer than next May, there is always the accusation that he is running scared, because the previous three elections were on a 4 yr cycle (May 1997, May 2001, May 2005)

I reckon he might go for it.But we shall see.

[SuperBlue]

Steve Foley:

2009 local elections are programmed for June, the same day as the European elections.

[Jack Stone]

Whenever it comes and I think it will be sooner rather than later the Conservatives will be in big trouble if they haven`t got a more sound economic policy than they have now.

[Steve Foley]

"Last time I said that Brown should call an election, because he would win it. I still think he would have, despite the strong Tory fight-back at the time (particularly Osborne's performance at the Conference)." Goldie.

In fact Brown had got "frit" as someone used to say and yet he had a perfect opportunity and would most likely have won.

He was "New" as PM, he wasn't Tony Blair, the polls were favouring him, he had just shown a decisive face during the Foot and Mouth Outbreak in Surrey. Now he could have played it like this. Let the Lib-Dems have their Conference, it often does them more harm than good as usually some sandal wearing bearded nutter at the rostrum suggests dropping the age of sexual consent to 12 or legalising heroin etc. Then Labour would have held their very carefully stage managed Conference all choreographed to show what a resolute Leader and PM Gordon Brown was. The Conference would have ended with Gordon making his keynote speech which could have concluded with "... I am now about to leave to meet the Queen to request the Dissolution of Parliament and lead you to victory on Thursday the xxth of October!" Cut to music, Gordon and his wife walk down the aisles shaking the hands of the chosen faithful. That evening a Prime Ministerial Broadcast asking the people for a fresh mandate.

Now by calling the Election from the last day of the Labour Conference he not only would have denied the Conservatives the benefits of their own Conference and no doubt cost the Party a lot of money but would have caught them with their pants down. I feel that he would have won, perhaps losing a handful of marginals but still having a working majority.

Now despite the dips in the Tory Lead in recent Opinion Polls I think he will stay till 2010. He has a good majority and has been lucky so far not to have suffered too many by-election defeats, or defections and does not have a serious rebel problem. I can see no sensible reason for him to cut and run.

[Jamie]

Latest ICM poll that everyone has been waiting for following the succession of four or five rogues? Why is there no report on this in ToryDiary yet? What's going on? Panic stations?

[Jamie]

Latest ICM poll that everyone has been waiting for following the succession of four or five rogues? Why is there no report on this in ToryDiary yet? What's going on? Panic stations?

[Chris Paul]

I've been saying June 2009 for a very long time. Perhaps Mr Brown will pay attention this time?

[Votedave]

In my view, Gordon Brown will not voluntarily call a general election unless ALL the polls are CONSISTENTLY pointing to a Labour overall majority. No PM would want to be leading a minority government.

Despite David Cameron calling for a general election ever since Tony Blair served out his "full term," I think Gordon Brown would risk appearing opportunistic by going to the country now, before the worst is to come.

[SN]

The previous ICM poll gave the Tories a 15 point lead. Just where has the 10 points gone exactly and for what reason? Damien Green, endless bad economic news, faked knife crime stats?? This is another very dodgy contrived poll, that also suggests that Mandelscum is at work with his media and polling chums to make a case for Labour going to the polls early. Being 15 points behind when they go to the polls, might tell people that they are throwing themselves out of office a year early, to dump the economic slump, later next year, on the Tories, and would be rightly seen by most people as very cynical electoral manoeuvre to save Labour's face. Making the polls level of even putting Liebour ahead, by January may be enough of an excuse to go to the country and then watch the polls turn during the campaign with Labour claiming a bad campaign or 1992 type polling is to blame for the loss.

From a cold strategic point of view and not a tribal one, Labour must recognise that they have to go as early as possible in the new year, so that they can lose, but maybe not that badly, and use the BBC to blame the ensuing depression on the nasty Tories. Labour will then spend the coming years trotting out the old clichés about high unemployment only happens under Conservative administrations and how uncaring they are etc. etc. and that Labour had the solution and the Tories ruined it, type bullshit. Logically speaking, Labour will get wiped out in 2010 or even late 2009, and will leave office leaving massive unemployment and economic devastation, their main sound bite against the Conservatives will be lost as well as all trust in their economic handling as the "Britain is best placed" and "Gordon leading the world" mantras will die as the awful spin that they are. Labour strategist must have realised this by now. Going early is a no-brainer to minimise long-term damage to the Liebour Party
A February poll is ridiculously early, but most significantly, would be before the BUDGET. International investors are already crushing the pound because they know that the Treasury is, or very soon will be, bankrupt. The next Budget, despite the usual spin and nonsense, will show that the government has massive debts and no way of paying them off in the foreseeable future. I believe, at this point the tide really will go out on this government and our economy, that is why an April or May date, will be too late and lead to much heavier Labour defeat.
The question mark is whether Labour tribalism (not to mention finances), will prevent them from committing electoral hari-kari before they actually have to? The decision will lie with the people who have most to lose by losing an election, i.e. Broon and his cabinet cronies. History shows us that, governments don't turn into electoral lemmings purely because they think that in the longer-term, their party will benefit. Self-interests of ego, power, position and income and a fair amount of self-delusion usually prevail, and even if someone like Mendelscum might realise the benefit of an early election, I don't think Stalin McBroon will commit sepuku.

[Votedave]

We've been in worse spots than this - don't forget that not one poll has shown Labour ahead in the past ten months - back in 1978 it looked bleak for Margaret Thatcher, with polls giving Labour solid leads of 5-6%.

[Simon]

The writ has already been moved to hold the local elections on the same day as the Euros.

As you can not have more than 2 principle elections on the same day - the General Election won't be in June.

Has anyone seen today ICM poll which puts Conservatives down 7 and Labour up 3

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20081216/tpl-brown-receives-poll-boost-5b839a9.html

[Mapa]

'Has anyone seen today ICM poll which puts Conservatives down 7 and Labour up 3'

yes it appears everyone but Tim...but Dave will as he is a guardian reader(sic)

possible tipping point earlier than forecast also i.e. Nu-Con consistently below <=38%

i.e. low New_Lab Majority

[michael mcgough]

There will be no election that will require Cameron to deliver his half hearted promise to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

[adge]

I think the reason Gordon Brown did'nt attend today’s PMQs was because he was dithering again, also just in case David Cameron wished him "Happy Xmas Gordon, now lets call an election" I don’t think the conservative party need a poll result for an election to be called, they have been ready for months, and so has the country.

[Alex]

Jamie - what's there to panic about? Labour are behind.

With increased TV exposure of Cameron in an election campaign, the Tories will win, and win with an overall majority.