ComRes brings Christmas cheer for David Cameron

ComRes had been the pollster showing the narrowest Conservative lead - just 1% in the last two polls - but another survey from ComRes for tomorrow's Independent shows the Tory lead up to 5%.  Probably not enough to say - as Andrew Grice does - that "The Brown bounce is over" but welcome news nonetheless.

This survey will certainly further dampen election speculation.  Ben Brogan has already said that there'll be no election in the first half of 2009.  But Jonathan had already told ConHome readers that on Saturday!

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[m dowding]

They have had to work on these figures for some hours to make them as favourable as possible to Labour. The real world of people talking to people has Labour in the mid to low 20s. These figures work if only core Labour are polled and 39% of core Labour will vote Conservative!

[m dowding]

My caution with ComRes is that Anthony Wells of UKPollingRport and I have yet to receive a reply to the questions we put more to them than a week ago on the firm’s past vote weighting formulas. For their weighting ratios seem to change very sharply from poll to poll and without further explanation it is hard to work out why.

Smithson on Pb

[Tim Montgomerie]

ComRes are a respectable pollster m dowding; please don't accuse them of massaging their data.

[Jennifer Wells]

Things are finally improving for us again.

V G.

[NorthernMonkey]

Clearly a rogue poll.

Take no notice.

[Rightwingery]

The Tories are still under 40% and if this were replicated in a GE Labour would (marginally, but still) be the largest party and obliged to form a government.

It isn't that good at all. The best thing about this entire polling period, from the return of Mandleson and the Brown Bounce to now, is that Labour's very short window of opportunity to call a general election is over.

By April/May next year I forecast that we will be back up to the mid 40's with Labour back in the mid 20's.

[steve]

Says it all.

http://img1.abload.de/img/fiddlemclabour1nr.jpg

[MG]

A second Brown bounce has stalled before overtaking us, despite them dominating the media, but we really do need to build on this though. It is vital there is a renewed narrative next year around where we want to take Britain. It is not enough that Labour are down, Conservatives must be strongly up, with people enthused about a new Conservative government.

[rugfish]

I'm still in complacency and denial mode.
We'll win but it would be nice to have some policies to win with.

[The Bishop Swine]

M Dowding said:
"They have had to work on these figures for some hours to make them as favourable as possible to Labour. The real world of people talking to people has Labour in the mid to low 20s. These figures work if only core Labour are polled and 39% of core Labour will vote Conservative!"Well I admire your use of spin, said with all the conviction you could muster. No doubt inspired by the return of the prince of darkness to Labours ranks, but 39% of core Labour will vote Conservative? Prehaps if they were not so dependant on Labour staying in power they would. I think you have to assume that all of Labour core will stay loyal, it’s the floating voter who (as always) will decide who runs the country after the next election.

[Paul D]

"Clearly a rogue poll.

Take no notice."

Couldn't agree more NM, owt with Labour above 10% HAS to be rogue

[Peter]

Now that people can see that the EU is no protection against an economic downturn, perhaps we should campaign to pull out, save at least 60 billion a year and put UKIP out of business.

[the bishops wife]

Putting UKIP out of business is a wonderful idea.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Encouraging news, but the Conservative Party still has a long way to go. At least the so-called "Brown Bounce", is rapidly turning into the "Brown Frown", perhaps?

Whilst some decent policies are already in place, more effective presentation would help to convince doubters.

Not persuaded by M Dowding's claim that "39% of core Labour will vote Conservative".

[Dodgy]

Polls schmolls! There is only one poll that counts.

[Gloy Plopwell]

this is so excriting for Lib dems. 16% is a firm base to build on. People forget it was sometimes 11% when so sadly had to decapitate poor Ming. There's still just enough time to overtake Labour first, and then the Tories aswell in 2009. Lyne Featherstone's majority in Hornsea and Wood Green will be 25,000, and watch out for an overall Lib dem majority of 60 in 2010. Have to get back to it, suspendors momentum!!

[John]

The Labour party have held 34/36% all year, and its vote at the last election was 35%.
So it is holding up.
Remember it is Goverments that lose elections, not the other parties that win them.
For the Tory party to win next time, the Labour support will have to stay at home, while the Tory party gets its vote out.
Then you could see a 45% to 30% with 15% to the Lib Dems. Only a max of 70% will go out to vote.

[RichardJ]

"Clearly a rogue poll.

Take no notice."

Thank you for the sarcastic remark, haven't you got some sort of bossy left-wing scheme you should be formulating?

[Mum in the East]

There is a long way to go ..... and the flip flop polls only partially reflect the deep uncertaintly of real people on the ground. I'm much more concerned about my job, my friends job and my neighbour's job than poll results. Keep up the good work Cameron/ Osborne and stop wasting my money Mr Brown.

[pp]

Brown will do whatever is required to win the next election.

If that means adopting tory policies - then he will.

While the tories must set out their stall (so they can do all the 'told you so' stuff later) - they must keep enough detail back that it can't be stolen.

Noone that I have spoken to in the past couple of months has a good word to say about brown/labour - I really don't know where the media drag up brown fans, I think there are lots of people who tell fibs to the polls and online, fibs that they won't repeat face to face (or in the polling booth!)...

[Another Richard]

"The Labour party have held 34/36% all year, and its vote at the last election was 35%. So it is holding up."

I think you're confusing 'all year' with 'the last two months'.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

As "Peter" said, "the EU is no protection against an economic downturn".

The Conservative Party should do as much as it can, to fight against our continuing membership of the EU. Already, many members of the public are feeling resentment towards this undemocratic institution. Why not help to increase the momentum?

Clearly, we would be "Better Off Out" of the EU!

[Tapestry]

they are rigging polling results prior to rigging an election.

[Bjclark]

Why have the BBC 5 Live just reviewed all the newspaper headlines and failed to mention the Independent.

[Rye Twing]

I think ComRes Polls are about as reliable as a British Leyland car

The "Family Silver" of opinion polls if you ask me.

[Sally Roberts]

"Noone that I have spoken to in the past couple of months has a good word to say about brown/labour"

Couldn't agree with you more, pp! I have been finding the same thing.

Not very scientific, but here's an interesting little experiment people can try when they nip out for their last-minute shopping today!

If the shop assistant mentions the subject of VAT you say, quite noncommittally, that "oh that's our present from Mr Brown..." and gauge the reaction! Invariably I find that the shop person raises their eyes to the heavens .... Speaks volumes and is just as good as any poll!

[m dowding]

ComRes are a respectable pollster m dowding; please don't accuse them of massaging their data.

Posted by: Tim Montgomerie | December 22, 2008 at 20:46

Tim, I have emailed your good self on my concerns regarding Labour mendacious and corrupt spin activities and the dangers of trusting any of them one jot. This crowd of power crazed cretins, that have in a few short years done untold and possibly irreversible damage to this Country, worship and adore greed and personal wealth above all else. 54% of LabourHome want Brown out as leader. Every blog from BBC HYS, LabourHome, Ian Dale, The Guardian CiF, The Sun and Guido all are awash with powerful anti-Brown and this Government.
Like cornered rats they will set their pet police into opposition offfices and homes, enact legislation to stifle blogging comment, Id cards, spy cameras, Bailiffs' right to use force. Just wait to see some poor pensioner beaten to repossess their sofa or 20 year old tele.
Trust, me, Tim, manipulating polls is almost respectable and I would suggest plans to nobble the next election are well advanced. The questions over Fife have never been answered. Tim, we are at war with a mendacious and disgusting enemy. Ignore this at your

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Apart from on the very few occasions when a Labour government has been very popular Labour tends to poll sharply below its polling figure (3 -5%)and my initial prognosis (that Brown would be given a good press and an easy time by the media to ensure that he remained the Labour leader, but a lame duck one)still holds.
From a Tory point of view the horror that the economy is going to fall into in the new year is better to do so under Brown's watch. Watch the media destroy Brown from January onwards and renewed revolt in Labour's ranks in the spring.
You read it here first.

[john]

I wonder just who those 3,000,000 out of work next year will vote for, or just sit on their hands at home?
I have yet to ready many, if any posts from people out of work that have a good word to say about Brown.
I go on a football site and the yong people (under 25) who have lost their jobs in the London area is mind blowing. Designers, Graphics people, city jobs, Just where will these people find new work in the next few years? It was the trend for our young people to go to the States for these jobs (remember the brain drain?), but this is no longer the case.
If this job queue is going to get longer and longer, Browns chances of hanging onto power becomes less and less.

[Sally Roberts]

I didn't know which thread would be the most appropriate one, but finally selected this because of the words "Christmas cheer"!

I am taking the opportunity to wish a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to Tim, Jonathan, Harry, Tom and everybody else connected with Conservative Home! Also to all our regular friends - Conservatives (too many to mention), other parties - Comstock, Resident Leftie, Gloy Plopwell and the whole team of friendly UKIPPERS!
Hope everyone enjoys the holiday period and comes back renewed for more Merry Sparring and Political Activities in 2009!

[John]

Sorry to post again, but I just read this.

There will be further pressure on the Government today as new research is due to predict unemployment will hit 3.5million by 2011, almost double its current figure.

Business Secretary Lord Mandelson and Local Government Minister John Healey have already suggested that the recession could be longer than previously stated.
Ministers admit privately that Labour's poll ratings are likely to 'take a hit' as the toll of job losses rises in the new year.

It seems that unemployment will continue to rise beyond 2010 (the last date for an election) So the next election will take place with about 3,000,000 out of work, and talk of it going upto 3,500,000.

There is no way Brown should be able to win an election in 2010 if this is the case.

So expect the unexpected from him in the next 12 months.

[John (Northumberland)]

The end of the Brown bounce?
Thankfully yes.

He abolished 'Boom Bust' - then learned he was wrong - but blamed it on the USA.

He wrecked the country's finances, so when recession struck we were skint - but just lied and said we could borrow more now because he'd been so prudent (LOL)

Now he's played his 'fix it' cards (except printing more money - which he's holding back). And it's failed.

And here's what follows:

1. Unemployment will continue to rise. Over 2m in the New Year & past 3m by next Christmas.

2. Sterling continues to fall.

3. House prices fall by 40% from peak.

4. More of our manufacturers destroyed.

5. Deflation & Depression by 2010.

Merry Christmas from all at Number 10.

[genraltory]

I really don't think we can win, the party is lead by morons and the government are performing well. We all know Cameron would never perform as well as Brown has done over the past few months. We're doomed!!!!! We guess is Labour hung parliament at next election.

[Votedave]

We clearly need to hammer home our message of less borrowing, less debt and less tax - the public are warming to it.