6% Tory lead in new YouGov poll

Further to the ComRes survey, news of a second poll out tomorrow; it's a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times:

Comparisons are with the YouGov poll taken on the day of the Pre-Budget report, meaning an increase in the Tory lead from 4% to 6%.

Fieldwork was conducted on Thursday and Friday.

These numbers would leave the Conservaitves 20 seats short of an overall majority, according to Electoral Calculus.

Comments

[SuperBlue]

Now that is more like it - actually I think it still understates us a little but is closer to reality.

[Matt Wright]

Focus on a message that resonates and stick at it. The modern world is a "noisy" system and for something to register with people it has to be relevant and punched out for weeks and months.

[Raj]

Certainly it provides a rejoinder to those who are focusing on the worst polls.

[Peter Buss]

These polls also show that the Brown bounce has stalled. Bearing in mind the wall to wall coverage he is getting as the "Saviour of the Worlds economy" and how Cameron is facing a media almost unanimously opposed to his view on no fiscal stimulus then this shows a basic hard level of Tory support 40%. Now its vital that Cameron does not veer off the Centre ground but continues to show a compassionate Conservatism so we can woo back the floating voters who would blame Brown for some of our woes but also recognise that there is a genuine global aspect to these problems as well.Its crucial that we show people by the language used that we are not uncaring to what they are going through

[Glittergirl]

One of Cameron's problems methinks

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1094516/My-shadow-cabinet-fed--David-Camerons-damning-verdict-frontbench.html

[Tom FD]

I wonder how Scotland factors into these results. I expect Labour is doing a lot better there than it is in England, purely due to a shaky SNP vote.

[TomTom]

Forget polls - articulate policy.

Voters want leadership not poll-followership

[David Belchamber]

"Forget polls - articulate policy.
Voters want leadership not poll-followership"

Good to have Tom Tom's commonsense back.

[Dodgy]

The last ICM poll, before the Damien Green arrest, gave Labour 30%, on this evidence, it would appear that a large part of the electorate want a police state. This poll, I suspect, like so man others, is maybe not as accurate as it could be.

[Jack Stone]

If Brown`economic policys start to show some success then the Conservatives will soon find themselves back on thirty percent.
Cameron had a great opportunity when elected to change the Conservative party and make it into a Liberal Conservative Party that would command support from the majority in this country who want to be governed from the centre instead he as rowed back to the right and the Party is little different to what it was under Michael Howard. Right-wing and unelectable.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Go and troll somewhere else Jack. You're not a Conservative by any stretch of the imagination, you'd really be much better off joining the Labour party and putting your generally half witted comments on Labourhome. Alex Hilton needs the traffic.

[m dowding]

Totally agree, Malcolm. This is the totalatarian way, rubbish common sense and damn any non-believer. Crewe and Nantwich was my favourite poll. How long ago was that? Hmm, not so long ago. Roll on the next "Crewe"!

[adge]

The only poll I am waiting for is “should we call a General Election now" it would save an awful lot of time and money instead of these silly monthly polls, although I had to laugh last month when GB gained a point BBC and Sky News were falling over themselves with excitement, I wonder if this months YouGuv poll will have the same effect on them, we'll be lucky if it even gets a mention, whatever happened to equal opportunities.

[Stewart Geddes]

General election on 2nd April or 4th June 2009. Failing which last minute in June 2010

Any takers?

[John Leonard]

Jack Stone:

If Brown`economic policys start to show some success then the Conservatives will soon find themselves back on thirty percent.

I take this to mean:

If Pigs might fly then shares in umbrella companies will rocket and put the stockmarket back at 2006 levels

One question Jack. Will you be holding your breath in anticipation of the 'green shoots' of Brown's economic recovery?

No, I didn't think so.......

The main thing these two polls show is the Brown fightback that has been mounted has stalled and could possibly have failed.

Hence the media is so quiet about them. Such a story just doesn't have any zip about it.

[Hawkeye]

Gordon will NOT call an election with poll results like these. He would be a fool to trade a 60 seat majority for a 20 seat majority or even to become the largest minority. As soon as he does that he becomes vulnerable to pressure groups both within and outside Labour.

Gordon will not hold an election unless the polls indicate that he will hold his existing majority. Factor his personlaity into to the equation, that he probably believes he will pull through this current difficulty to a socialist utopia, and he will hang on as much as he can.

What I am half expecting is the cancellation of the next election due to it not being wise to change governments in the middle of an economic crisis.

[Eveleigh]

If Gordon Brown believed that he was doing well in the polls he would screw his courage to the sticking point and call a General Election wouldn't he?

[James]

Remember he has more savvy advisors now - like Mandelson and Campbell - than he had last time he contemplated an early election.

He's not a risk taker, but the question is, which is the bigger risk? Going in 2009 without a clear poll lead, or waiting to 2010 with all the uncertainty regarding the economy that that brings?

[Hawkeye]

Remember that Gordon knows he has a couple of dozen rebels in his party who will vote against him. That means he needs a majority of at least 50 to keep his rebels in line. Any number smaller than that leaves him vulnerable and he will not go unless he is sure of at least a 50 seat majority.

If nothing else, losing a bigger majority for a smaller one would unsheath the knives in Labour, especially if he lost Brownites in marginal seats thus leaving high profile rebels intact (like Winnick) whilst eroding his support.

[JS]

The continuing collapse of the Conservative lead in recent polls is very largely down to the inept response made to the economic crisis by Cameron and Osborne. They both have seemed completely out of their depth. The heavyweights like Clarke, Redwood and Howard etc., must be brought back to give some credibility, guts, competence and bite to the Opposition. At the moment it is perceived that they have none. That perception is certainly not a vote winner !

[Jack Stone]

Cameron is calling for an election now because he knows that the longer Brown stays in office the least chance he has of winning.
Cameron as messed up by adopting a right-wing agenda and he will pay for it dearly whenever the election is called.
As for bringing back Redwood.If Cameron did that you may as well just give up completly.His views are far too right-wing and on television he comes over worst than Brown and that is saying something.

[SuperBlue]

Being quite new to this blogosphere thing, I looked up "troll" in my dictionary and it said "see Jack Stone".

[adge]

My point regarding a GE now is, we have two different policies from two different parties - taking the country into debt to be paid back over years and years - or not to go into debt and make cuts other ways, therefore, I do not believe such a most important decision should be left until Mandleson Campbell or our unelected Brown decide when it is the right time to call an election, as a taxpayer I would like to choose which policy I prefer and vote accordingly at these most dire times of this country, as would many more of the general public. Three generations of voting labour, never again.

[Julian L Hawksworth]

Jack Stone really is a "troll", no doubt about it. We do not need to have a referendum about that.

He says for example (of David Cameron), "on television he comes over worst than Brown". Utter rubbish!

In addition, he claims, "If Brown economic policys start to show some success then the Conservatives will soon find themselves back on thirty percent". Complete nonsense!
Even Jack Stone uses the word "if", suggesting that he does not believe his own remarks....

[jamie]

I think he was referring to John Redwood in your first example, Julian, in which case he is right. I have great respect for Redwood's intellect and academic record, but it's undeniable that he comes over as borderline deranged/unhinged, and that's not an advantage when trying to win over floating voters.

[Sean]

I fail to see what is so "totalitarian" about offering an opposing point of view. Surely the whole point of the blogosphere is that it allows things - like opinion polls - to be debated. And so what if someone isn't a Tory? This isn't a closed club is it?

[StevenAdams]

Redwood actually comes over well, but like Clarke this is largely because of his non-frontbench status. This - combined with his experience - gives him credibility as he doesn't appear as a party-whipped voice piece. Osborne does a fine job - the issue is that nobody on this site seems to LISTEN to what he says and the BBC aren't interested in fair coverage.